Gravity variation before Kunlun mountain pass western Ms=8.1 earthquake

The relation between the gravity variation features and Ms=8.1 earthquake in Qinghai-Xizang monitoring area is analyzed preliminarily,by using spatial dynamic variation results of regional gravity field from absolute gravity and relative gravity observation in 1998 and 2000.The results show that:1)Ms\8.1 earthquake in Kulun mountain pass westem occurred in the gravity variation high gradient near gravity‘s high negative variation;2)The Main tectonic deformation and emnergy accumulation before MS=8.1 earthquake are distributed at south side of the epicenter;3)The range of gravity‘s high negative variation at east of the MS=8.1 earthquake epicenter relatively coincides with that rupture region according to field geology investigation;4)Gravity variation distribution in high negative value region is just consistent with the second shear strain‘s high value region of strain field obtained from GPS observation.     

Lg coda Q0 value and its relation with the tectonics in Chinese mainland and adjacent regions

We have collected 432 vertical component records from 45 stations of new CENC （China Earthquake Network Center） in Chinese mainland and adjacent regions. These records were used to calculate Q0 （Q at 1Hz） and η values of Lg coda from each station by the stack spectral ratio （SSR） method. Then the tomography method was applied to obtaining lateral variation of Q0 and η values in Chinese mainland and adjacent regions. The result indicates that Q0 value varies between 150 and 600 in the studied areas. Yunnan, southwest Sichuan, and northwest Myanmar show the lowest Q0 value （Q0〈240） and the crust of these regions is characterized by complicated crack and strong hydrothermal activity. The highest Q0 value （Qo〉510） exists in the border of southern Mongolia, Alxa and Ordos block. The η value varies between 0.45 and 0.75 in Chinese mainland and its adjacent regions.     

2022年门源MS6.9和2016年门源MS6.4地震序列比较分析

2022年1月8日青海省海北州门源县发生M_S6.9地震,震中距离2016年1月21日门源M_S6.4地震震中约33km,两次门源地震均发生在冷龙岭断裂附近,但在震源机制、主发震断层破裂过程及地震序列余震活动等方面显著不同。针对两次门源地震序列的比较分析,对研究冷龙岭断裂及其附近区域强震序列和余震衰减特征等具有重要研究意义。通过对比分析2022年门源M_S6.9地震和2016年门源M_S6.4地震余震的时空演化特征,发现二者在震源过程和断层破裂尺度上存在明显差异,前者发震断层破裂充分,震后能量释放充分,余震丰富且震级偏高;而后者发震断层未破裂至地表,余震震级水平偏低。综合分析两次门源地震序列表现出来的差异性,认为其可能与地震发震断层的破裂过程密切相关,且同时受到区域构造环境的影响。     

Source process of the 14 November 2001 western Kunlun Mountain M S=8.1 earthquake

Based on digital teleseismic P-wave seismograms recorded by 28 long-period seismograph stations of the global seismic network, source process of the November 14, 2001 western Kunlun Mountain M _S=8.1 (M _W=7.8) earthquake is estimated by a new inversion method. The result shows that the earthquake is a very complex rupture event. The source rupture initiated at the hypocenter (35.95°N, 90.54°E, focal depth 10 km, by USGS NEIC), and propagated to the west at first. Then, in several minutes to a hundred minutes and over a large spatial range, several rupture growth points emerged in succession at the eastern end and in the central part of the finite fault. And then the source rupture propagated from these rupture growth points successively and, finally, stopped in the area within 50 km to the east of the centroid position (35.80°N, 92.91°E, focal depth 15 km, by Harvard CMT). The entire rupture lasted for 142 s, and the source process could be roughly separated into three stages: The first stage started at the 0 s and ended at the 52 s, lasting for 52 s and releasing approximately 24.4% of the total moment; The second stage started at the 55 s and ended at the 113 s, lasting for 58 s and releasing approximately 56.5% of the total moment; The third stage started at the 122 s and ended at the 142 s, lasting for 20 s and releasing approximately 19.1% of the total moment. The length of the ruptured fault plane is about 490 km. The maximum width of the ruptured fault plane is about 45 km. The rupture mainly occurred within 30 km in depth under the surface of the Earth. The average static slip in the underground rocky crust is about 1.2 m with the maximum static slip 3.6 m. The average static stress drop is about 5 MPa with the maximum static stress drop 18 MPa. The maximum static slip and the maximum stress drop occurred in an area within 50 km to the east of the centroid position. Foundation item: Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (103066) and Foundation of the Seismic Pattern and Digital Seismic Data Application Research Office of Institute of Earthquake Science of the China Earthquake Administration.     

Vp and Vp/Vs structures in the crust and upper mantle of the Taiwan region, China

A tomographic study of the V _p and V _p/V _s structures in the crust and upper mantle beneath the Taiwan region of China is conducted by simultaneous inversion of P and S arrival times. Compared with the previous tomographic results, the spherical finite difference technique is suitable for the strong heterogeneous velocity structure, and may improve the accuracy in the travel time and three-dimensional ray tracing calculations. The V _p and V _p/V _s structures derived from joint inversion and the relocated earthquakes can provide better constraints for analyzing the lateral heterogeneity and deep tectonic characters in the crust and upper mantle. Our tomographic results reveal significant relations between the seismic wavespeed structure and the tectonic characters. In the shallow depth, sedimentary basins and orogen show distinct wavespeed anomalies, with low V _p, high V _p/V _s in basins and high V _p, low V _p/V _s in orogen. As the suture zone of Eurasian Plate and Philippine Sea Plate, Longitudinal Valley is characterized by a significant high V _p/V _s anomaly extending to the middle-lower crust and upper mantle, which reflects the impact of rock cracking, partial melting, and the presence of fluids. In the northeast Taiwan, the V _p, V _p/V _s anomalies and relocated earthquakes depict the subducting Philippine Sea Plate under the Eurasian Plate. The high V _p of oceanic plate and the low V _p, high V _p/V _s atop the subducted oceanic plate extend to 80 km depth. Along the east-west profiles, the thickness of crust reaches 60 km at the east of Central Range with eastward dipping trend, which reveals the eastward subduction of the thickened and deformed crust of the Eurasian continental plate. Supported by Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX3-SW-234-2), National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2007CB411701), National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2006AA09A101-0201) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40804016, 40704013)     

Fault deformation anomaly and intermediate and short-term prediction of the Jingtai M s=5.9 earthquake

The time-space distribution characteristics of fault deformation anomaly in the near-source region and its outlying zone in the seismogenic process of the Jingtai M _s=5.9 earthquake occurred on June 6, 2000 in Gansu Province is studied preliminarily. The distribution scope of fault deformation anomaly before the earthquake is wide, the anomaly shape is complicated and the pattern anomalous zone of fault deformation (strain) information index is obvious. The shape and amplitude of fault deformation anomaly in different regions differ significantly, which is closely related with the tectonic location of anomaly. The fault deformation anomaly of α, β, and γ phases along the western segment of Haiyuan fault zone shows the process from the quasi-linearity to non-linearity of fault movement in the near-source region, matches the high-value anomalous area of fault deformation (strain) information index, and reflects the high strain accumulation in the seismogenic region. However, the anomaly of abrupt jump and cusp with a large amplitude occurred in the areas far from the earthquake, such as Liupanshan fault zone which is the tectonic convergent section does not reflect the strain accumulation of its location, maybe it is a sign that the regional tectonic stress field is strengthened in the seismogenic process. Based on the above-mentioned facts and combined with the preliminary summary of experiences and lessons in the intermediate and short-term prediction of the Jingtai M _s=5.9 earthquake, we study and explore the application of fault deformation anomaly to earthquake judgment. Foundation item: National Key Basic Research Development Program (G1998040703 and G1998040705), and State Scientific and Technological Project of the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” (96-913-09-01-02-03 and 96-913-09-02-02-03), China.     

Variation of Q value before and after the 1999 Xiuyan, Liaoning Province, M =5.4 earthquake on the basis of analysis on attenuation dispersion of P waves

A method for determining medium quality factor is developed on the basis of analyzing the attenuation dispersion of the arrived first period P wave. In order to enhance signal to noise ratio, improve the resolution in measurement and reduce systematic error we applied the data resampling technique. The group velocity delay of P wave was derived by using an improved multi-filtering method. Based on a linear viscoelastic relaxation model we deduced the medium quality factor Q _m, and associated error with 95% confidence level. Applying the method to the seismic record of the Xiuyan M=5.4 earthquake sequences we obtained the following result: (1) High Q _m started to appear from Nov. 9, 1999. The events giving the deduced high Q _m value clustered in a region with their epicenter distances being between 32 and 46 km to the Yingkou station. This Q _m versus distance observation obviously deviates from the normal trend of Q _m linearly increasing with distance. (2) The average Q _m before the 29 Dec. 1999 M=5.4 earthquake is 460, while the average Q _m between the M=5.4 event and the 12 Jan. 2000 M=5.1 earthquake is 391, and the average Q _m after the M=5.1 event is 204. Foundation item: State Key Project of Science and Technology during the Tenth Five-year Plan (2004BA601B01-03-01).     

青海祁连MS5.2地震微震检测与目录完备性研究

利用模板匹配方法对2015年11月23日青海省祁连县M_S5.2地震进行遗漏地震检测研究,由于主震后短时间内目录中遗漏事件较多,故对主震后1天的连续波形进行检测。主震后1天内青海测震台网记录到的余震个数(包括单台)共62个,选取主震后M_L1.0以上余震30个作为模板事件,通过匹配滤波的方式扫描出遗漏地震31个,约为台网目录给出的0.5倍。基于包络差峰值振幅与震级的线性关系估测检测事件的震级参数,最后将检测后的余震目录与台网余震目录在主震后1天内的最小完备震级进行对比分析,结果发现检测后最小完备震级从M_L1.2降到了M_L0.7,得到青海测震台网在祁连地区最小完整性震级为M_L0.7。     

Seismicity anomalies before the great earth—quake of Ms=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

A great earthquake of M _S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M _S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.     

Preliminary analysis on characteristics of coseismic deformation associated with M S=8.1 western Kunlunshan Pass earthquake in 2001

Based on the analysis of coseismic deformation in the macroscopic epicentral region extracted by Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (D-InSAR), and combined with the seismic activity, focal mechanism solutions of the earthquake and field investigation, the characteristic of coseismic deformation of M _S=8.1 western Kunlunshan Pass earthquake in 2001 was researched. The study shows that its epicenter lies in the northeast side of Hoh Sai Hu; and the seismogenic fault in the macroscopic epicentral region can be divided into two central deformation fields: the west and east segments with the lengths of 42 km and 48 km, respectively. The whole fault extends about 90 km. From the distribution of interferometry fringes, the characteristic of sinistral strike slip of seismogenic fault can be identified clearly. The deformations on both sides of the fault are different with an obviously higher value on the south side. In the vicinity of macroscopic epicenter, the maximum displacement in look direction is about 288.4 cm and the minimum is 224.0 cm; the maximum sinistral horizontal dislocation of seismogenic fault near the macroscopic epicenter is 738.1 cm and the minimum is 551.8 cm. Foundation item: National Natural Science Foundation of China (40374013) and “Researching on the Disaster Earthquake” (2003) of Public Welfare Research Item, Ministry of Science and Technology of China.     

Attenuation of coda waves and Q c value beneath the Chengdu telemetered seismic network

Based on the single scattering model of coda power spectrum analysis, digital waveform data of 50 events recorded by the real-time processing system of the Chengdu telemetry network are analyzed to estimate the Q _c values of earth medium beneath the Chengdu telemetry network for several specified frequencies. It is found that the Q _c shows the frequency dependency in the form of Q _c = Q ₀ f ⁿ in the range of 1.0 to 20.0Hz. Estimated Q ₀ ranges from 60.83 to 178.05, and n is found to be 0.713 to 1.159. The average value of Q ₀ and n are 117 and 0.978 respectively. This result indicates the strong frequency dependency of the attenuation of coda waves beneath the Chengdu telemetry network. Comparing with the results obtained in other regions of the world, it is found that Q ₀ ⁻¹ value and its change with frequency are similar to those in regions with strong tectonic activity. This subject is supported by the Ministry of Personnel, China for partly sponsoring.     

The December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M W=9.0, earthquake and the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation

Long-term seismic activity prior to the December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M _W=9.0 earthquake was investigated using the Harvard CMT catalogue. It is observed that before this great earthquake, there exists an accelerating moment release (AMR) process with the temporal scale of a quarter century and the spatial scale of 1 500 km. Within this spatial range, the M _W=9.0 event falls into the piece-wise power-law-like frequency-magnitude distribution. Therefore, in the perspective of the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation, the failure to forecast/predict the approaching and/or the size of this earthquake is not due to the physically intrinsic unpredictability of earthquakes. Foundation item: Ministry of Science and Technology Project (2004CB418406). Contribution No. 05FE3010, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration.     

2017年九寨沟7.0级地震前应力状态及b值异常特征研究

2017年8月8日青藏高原东缘四川九寨沟地区发生7.0级强震,依据前人研究结果分析九寨沟7.0级地震发震构造,并计算震前应力状态。结果显示:本次地震受到构造和历史强震的影响,是发生在历史强震引起的应力加载区域。另外,采用中国地震台网1990年以来的地震目录,在评估目录完整性的基础上,利用最大似然法计算得到2017年8月8日九寨沟7.0级地震前震源区及邻区地震b值空间图像。结果显示,九寨沟7.0级地震发生在四川北部地区显著低b值高应力异常区域内部(0.82b0.75)。所以,研究区域内外历史强震可能促进了九寨沟7.0级地震的发生。     

The empirical relationships between M s, m b and M L for China and vicinity

Data from 753 earthquakes are used to determine a relationship between surface-wave magnitude (M _s) and bodywave magnitude (m _b), and from 541 earthquakes to determine a relationship between surface-wave magnitude (M _s) and local magnitude (M _L) for China and vicinity: M _s=0.9883 m _b-0.0420, M _s=0.9919 M _L-0.1773. The relationship of M _s versus m _b is obtained for 292 events occurred in the Chinese mainland in the time period from 1964 to 1996, 291 events occurred in Taiwan in the time period from 1964 to 1995 and 170 events occurred in the surrounding area. Standard deviation of the fitting is 0.445. Relationship of M _s versus M _L is obtained for 36 events occurred in the Chinese mainland, 293 events occurred in Taiwan, China and 212 events occurred in the surrounding area. The total amount is 541 events. Standard deviation of the fitting is 0.4673. The uncertainties of the converted M _s in different magnitude intervals can be estimated using complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF). In the relationship of M _s versus m _b, taking ±0.25 as a range of uncertainties, in magnitude interval m _b 4.0–4.9, the probabilities for the converted M _s taken value less than (M _s-0.25) and more than (M _s+0.25) are 17% and 27% respectively. Similarly, we have probabilities for m _b 5.0–5.9 are 34% and 20% and that for m _b 6.0–6.9 are 11% and 47%. In the relationship of M _s versus M _L, if the range of uncertainties is still taken as ±0.25, the corresponding probabilities for magnitude interval M _L 4.0–4.9 are 22% and 38%, for M _L 5.0–5.9 are 20% and 15% and for magnitude interval M _L 6.0–6.9, are 15% and 29%, respectively. The relationships developed in this paper can be used for the conversion of one magnitude scale into another magnitude scales conveniently. The estimation of uncertainties described in this paper is more accurate and more objective than the usual estimation expressed by deviation. The estimations described in this paper indicate various dispersions in different magnitude intervals of original data. The estimations of uncertainties described by probabilities can be well connected with the total estimations of uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment.     

Application of Fisher method to discriminating earthquakes and explosions using criterion <Emphasis Type="Italic">m</Emphasis><Subscript>b</Subscript>/<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>

We try to give a quantitative and global discrimination function by studying m _b/M _S data using Fisher method that is a kind of pattern recognition methods. The reliability of the function is also analyzed. The results show that this criterion works well and has a global feature, which can be used as first-level filtering criterions in event identification. The quantitative and linear discrimination function makes it possible to identify events automatically and achieve the goal to react the events quickly and effectively.     

新源、和静交界ML6.8级地震序列应力降和震源机制研究

Based on the digital waveform data recorded by Xinjiang Digital Seismic Network for the Xinyuan-Hejing M_L6.8 earthquake sequences of June 30,2012,this paper analyzes the stress drops of earthquake sequences and the correlation coefficients of focal mechanisms significant for strong aftershocks.Firstly,the source parameters of the Xinyuan-Hejing M_L6.8 earthquake sequences are obtained by applying the spectrum analysis and the Brunes source model.Then,the correlation coefficients of spectral amplitudes are calculated using the low-frequency spectral amplitude recorded by the same station for the different events.Finally,based on the results of the correlation coefficients of spectral amplitudes,the events with similar focal mechanisms are grouped using the clustering method.The results show that:(1)The stress drop values show a steady trend in the aftershock sequence calm period and the stress drop values show a rise-fall in strong aftershocks.(2)The moving average correlation coefficient of amplitude spectrum begins to spread after the main shock.It shows that the correlation decreases between the main shock and the aftershocks in mechanisms.(3)The results of focal mechanism groups show that the earthquake sequences are mainly strike slips.The stress distribution of the main pressure axis is nearly NS,which is the same as the structural stress field.(4)The magnitude and mechanism show that there is an agreement before the strong aftershock,which shows that the regional stress field is enhanced.     

Attenuation of Coda Waves at the Changbaishan Tianchi Volcanic Area in Northeast China

21 earthquakes recorded by a temporary seismic network in the Changbaishan Tianchi volcanic area in Northeast China operated during the summer of 2002 and 2003 were analyzed to estimate the S coda attenuation. The attenuation quality factor Q_c was estimated using the single scattering attenuation model of Sato (1977) in the frequency band from 4 to 24 Hz. All the events studied in this paper occurred at depths from 2 to 6 km with ML of 1.4–2.8. The epicentral distances are less than 25 km. For all events which occurred near the Tianchi Lake (caldera), the Q_c patterns obtained at the stations near the lake are similar, and the Q_c values are relatively small. At the stations located about 15 km east of the Tianchi Lake, however, the average Q_c is significantly higher. For an event which occurred 25km from the lake to the west, Q_c patterns derived at the stations near the lake are quite similar to the above mentioned Q_c for stations located in the east. Further study shows that Q_c value in the north and central areas of the volcano is relatively lower than that in the surrounding area. Compared to other volcanic areas in the world, the average Q_c of the Changbaishan Tianchi volcanic area is obviously lower. The deep seismic sounding and teleseismic receiver function studies indicated more than one lower velocity layer in the crust. The MT studies suggested the presence of high conductive bodies beneath the area. We interpret the strong attenuation of coda waves near the Changbaishan Tianchi volcano as being possibly related to high temperature medium caused by shallow magma chambers.     

2017年11月23日重庆武隆5.0级地震前地磁谐波振幅比异常研究

近年来,地磁谐波振幅比方法在国内得到较广泛的应用,并成为一种较为有效的地震预测方法。本文利用谐波振幅比方法,对2017年11月23日重庆武隆5.0级地震震中附近台站的地磁三分量数据进行计算,并分析了各台站10~60min周期谐波振幅比值异常特征。研究发现,异常台站几乎均位于震源机制解的拉张区(P波向下的区域),具有象限分布特征;异常台站NS向谐波振幅比值变化存在分层现象,短周期(浅部)的变化与长周期(深部)变化成相反相位,从电磁学机理看,浅部与深部之间存在EW向的面电流;近震中台站的异常低点时间存在由长周期(深部)向短周期(浅部)迁移的现象。     

云南地区水位、水温对尼泊尔Ms8.1地震的响应特征研究

通过统计2015年4月25日尼泊尔MS8.1地震和5月12日MS7.5余震发生时云南地区水位、水温的空间分布、异常形态、变化幅度、起始和结束时间等远场响应特征,分析认为:同震响应主要集中在川滇菱形块体东南部、滇缅弧形块体东部和小滇西一带,即云南地区中西部;同井观测的水位、水温同震响应异常形态多样,单井同测项的同震响应异常形态具有一致性,与地震震级、震中距、方位无关;观测井的记震能力与观测仪器的分辨率、井孔含水层条件等有关,同震响应的异常幅度(ΔH、ΔT)与震级(M)、震中距(D)之间有一定的数量关系;近来云南区域地震活动整体呈现"平静—活动—平静"特征,小震活动有丛集特点,未来一段时间需注意滇西—滇西北和滇西南地区中强地震的危险性。     

新疆乌鲁木齐地区vS30经验估计研究

从新疆乌鲁木齐市2004—2015年得到的841个钻孔中选择深度达30 m以下且钻孔资料记录完整的有效钻孔123个,通过计算5~30 m范围内不同深度的等效剪切波速,分别利用线性拟合、二次拟合和三次拟合对各深度v_S（d）及其v_S30进行拟合。通过对比发现,三个方程的拟合误差都随深度的增加而减少,且三次拟合方程的误差始终小于同深度的线性拟合和二次拟合方程,因此推荐使用三次拟合方程来估计新疆乌鲁木齐市钻孔的v_S30值。同时将此结果和Boore的结果进行比较后发现,不同深度处的等效剪切波速v_S（d）和v_S30具有地域差异性;Boore得到的结果在钻孔深度小于20 m时明显高估v_S30值,拟合曲线偏离实际数据点较远,所以本文拟合结果更适用于新疆乌鲁木齐市。综合比较可知,三次拟合得到的研究结果可以为新疆乌鲁木齐市钻孔深度不足30 m的地区求解v_S30值提供参考。最后,利用新疆克拉玛依市2004—2015年钻孔资料检验三个拟合公式对克拉玛依市的适用性,发现深度越接近30 m,误差越小;线性模型和二次模型相对来说比较可靠,平均误差接近于0,并且对深度大于10 m的钻孔有高估现象;三次模型相对来说误差比较大,并且几乎在所有深度都有低估现象。