A Model Simulation of Future Oceanic Conditions along the British Columbia Continental Shelf. Part II: Results and Analyses

An ocean circulation model for the British Columbia continental shelf is run with future initial conditions and forcing fields downscaled from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program archive. Average seasonal sea surface temperatures for the period 2065 to 2078 are projected to increase by between 0.5° and 2.0°C with respect to analogous averages from 1995 to 2008. Seasonal sea surface salinities are projected to decrease by as much as 2.0 over the same period, though there are some regions where and periods when small increases are projected. Though stronger winter winds result in larger Haida Eddies, slightly stronger summer winds along the western Vancouver Island shelf do not result in appreciable changes to either the cross-shelf upwelling or to the magnitude of Juan de Fuca Eddies or the timing of their formation. However, increased flows are projected in some seasons for the Rose Spit, Middle Bank, and Goose Island Bank eddies. More precipitation over the watersheds emptying into coastal waters produces larger freshwater discharges and, in particular, a stronger estuarine flow in Juan de Fuca Strait and a stronger Vancouver Island Coastal Current. Generally increasing winds and decreasing density mean that the winter minus summer range of sea surface heights is projected to increase all along the coast.     

On the feasibility of detecting net transports in and out of Georgia strait with an array of current meters

Abstract

A series of extensive current measurements was carried out in sections of the Straits of Juan de Fuca and Johnstone during 1973, whose primary objective was the definition of the net circulation around Vancouver Island. Careful use of the data collected during the survey failed to yield reliable values for such net flows; the reasons for this lack of success are investigated.     

Winter‐time near‐surface currents in the strait of Juan de Fuca

Abstract

During November 1976 to February 1977 near‐surface wind, current and temperature measurements were made at three sites along the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Strong tidal currents and major intrusions of warmer, fresher offshore coastal water were superimposed upon the estuarine circulation of near‐surface seaward flow. The r.m.s. amplitudes of the diurnal and semidiurnal tidal currents were ～30 cms^‐1 and 30–47 cm s^‐1, respectively. The vector‐mean flow at 4 m‐depth was seaward and decreased in speed from 28 cm s^‐1 at 74 km from the entrance to 9 cm s^‐1 at 11 km from the entrance. On five occasions intrusions of 1–3 C warmer northeast Pacific coastal water occurred for durations of 1–10 days. The 25 cm s^‐1 up‐strait speed of the intrusive lens agreed to within 20% of the gravity current speed computed from Benjamin's (1968) hydraulic model. The near‐surface currents associated with the intrusions and the southerly coastal winds were significantly correlated, indicating that the intrusions were initiated when shoreward Ekman currents advected Pacific coastal water into the Strait. The reversals were not significantly coherent with the along‐strait sea surface slope measured along the north side of the Strait nor were they strongly related to local wind forcing.     

Turbulence and mixing: Sources of nutrients on the Vancouver island continental shelf

Abstract

Estimates of the rate of dissipation of turbulent energy,?_v, were made on the continental shelf off the southwest coast of Vancouver Island throughout the diurnal tidal cycle at six stations. If turbulent mixing takes place away from boundaries, and a constant fraction of the energy supplied to turbulence is converted into potential energy, this dissipation rate per unit volume, ?_v, is shown to be proportional to the rate of turbulent mass and nutrient flux across the isopycnals.

We compute these fluxes to determine the source of nutrients in the upper mixed layer on the shelf. It is found that tidal mixing on the shelf throughout the water column contributes less than 10% of the flux of nutrients supplied by the estuarine outflow out of Juan de Fuca Strait. Strong winds during upwelling events supply nutrients at rates greater than those due to tidal mixing, but at rates that are likely smaller than the Juan de Fuca source. Therefore, the nutrient‐rich waters observed in the euphotic zone in spring and summer on this shelf derive mainly from Juan de Fuca Strait. Nutrients in bottom water derive from upwelling along shelf‐break canyons.     

Deep and intermediate water replacement in the Strait of Georgia

Abstract

We have studied deep‐water replacement processes in the Strait of Georgia using data from two different observational programs. From the monthly hydrographic data of Crean and Ages (1971) we have recognized the propagation of cold, brackish and well oxygenated waters northwards from Boundary Passage at depths between 75 and 200 m. We found a significant correlation over the years 1967–78 between surface cooling and temperature drops at those depths some months later. Measurements at an array of moorings in the central Strait of Georgia (Stacey et al., 1987) revealed the presence during summer months of currents concentrated near the bottom and varying with fortnightly and monthly periods. We have interpreted this phenomenon in terms of gravity currents originating from Boundary Passage during periods of neap tides and introducing at depth salty waters from the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Our analysis confirms in part the validity of the deep‐water replacement mechanisms advanced by Waldichuk; however, we find that wintertime replacement does not usually reach bottom while summertime penetration of waters from the Strait of Juan de Fuca clearly does. Because of the important role played by tidal mixing, monthly sampling is inadequate to resolve and understand the deep‐water replacement processes.     

On the role of the unresolved eddies in a model of the residual currents in the central strait of Georgia,B.C.: Research Note

Abstract

A depth‐independent numerical model of the Juan de Fuca/Strait of Georgia system reproduces the broad structure of the observed depth‐averaged residual circulation in the Central Strait of Georgia but underestimates its magnitude (Marinone and Fyfe, 1992). Here we present some new calculations based on a re‐parameterization of the unresolved eddies in terms of “statistical dynamical tendencies” instead of the previous eddy‐viscosity treatment. With the new parameterization, the simulated time‐mean flow is closer to the observed circulation both in structure and magnitude. While not specifically designed to do so, the new parameterization also leads to a modest improvement in the low‐pass filtered component of the flow. Based on these results, the depth‐averaged residual currents in the region are conjectured to involve a four‐way balance between the hitherto ignored effect of “statistical dynamical tendencies” and conventional tidal, atmospheric and buoyancy forcing.     

Comparison of three methods for estimating the sea level rise effect on storm surge flooding

Two linear methods, including the simple linear addition and linear addition by expansion, and numerical simulations were employed to estimate storm surges and associated flooding caused by Hurricane Andrew for scenarios of sea level rise (SLR) from 0.15 m to 1.05 m with an interval of 0.15 m. The interaction between storm surge and SLR is almost linear at the open Atlantic Ocean outside Biscayne Bay, with slight reduction in peak storm surge heights as sea level rises. The nonlinear interaction between storm surges and SLR is weak in Biscayne Bay, leading to small differences in peak storm surge heights estimated by three methods. Therefore, it is appropriate to estimate elevated storm surges caused by SLR in these areas by adding the SLR magnitude to storm surge heights. However, the magnitude and extent of inundation at the mainland area by Biscayne Bay estimated by numerical simulations are, respectively, 22–24 % and 16–30 % larger on average than those generated by the linear addition by expansion and the simple linear addition methods, indicating a strong nonlinear interaction between storm surge and SLR. The population and property affected by the storm surge inundation estimated by numerical simulations differ up to 50–140 % from that estimated by two linear addition methods. Therefore, it is inappropriate to estimate the exacerbated magnitude and extent of storm surge flooding and affected population and property caused by SLR by using the linear addition methods. The strong nonlinear interaction between surge flooding and SLR at a specific location occurs at the initial stage of SLR when the water depth under an elevated sea level is less than 0.7 m, while the interaction becomes linear as the depth exceeds 0.7 m.     

Significance of nitrogen dioxide absorption in estimating aerosol optical depth and size distributions

Abstract

Changes to the Beaufort Sea shoreline occur due to the impact of storms and rising relative sea level. During the open‐water season (June to October), storm winds predominantly from the north‐west generate waves and storm surges which are effective in eroding thawing ice‐rich cliffs and causing overwash of gravel beaches. Climate change is expected to be enhanced in Arctic regions relative to the global mean and include accelerated sea‐level rise, more frequent extreme storm winds, more frequent and extreme storm surge flooding, decreased sea‐ice extent, more frequent and higher waves, and increased temperatures. We investigate historical records of wind speeds and directions, water levels, sea‐ice extent and temperature to identify variability in past forcing and use the Canadian Global Coupled Model ensembles 1 and 2 (CGCM1 and CGCM2) climate modelling results to develop a scenario forcing future change of Beaufort Sea shorelines. This scenario and future return periods of peak storm wind speeds and water levels likely indicate increased forcing of coastal change during the next century resulting in increased rates of cliff erosion and beach migration, and more extreme flooding.     

理想海域中台风引起的潮、流及波的分析 Ⅱ.海岸及陆架的影响

采用理想的大陆架地形和台风模型计算了不同方向登陆的台风所激发的海洋响应。结果表明,岸边的潮位变化主要是由于台风引起的强迫振动造成的。而对于登陆型台风来说,在远离台风路径的地方,潮位的变化则是由于边缘波效应。对地平直海岸和二维大陆架,自由边缘波的振幅远小于强迫波的振幅。平行海岸移行台风在岸边产生随台风一起移动的强制波,其中当台风沿着与Kelvin波相同的方向移行时,岸边有陆架波产生,反之则没有陆架波。此外,还讨论了与风暴潮相关的近岸环流。     

Storm surges in Canadian waters

Abstract

Storm surges in various Canadian waters are reviewed. Following a brief discussion of the weather systems that cause storm surges in Canadian coastal and inland waters, the mathematical formulations to describe the development of storm surges are given. In reviewing storm surges in the different Canadian waters, particular attention is given to describe the influence of the presence of sea ice on surge development and the impact of shallow coastal areas, where the coastline configuration is itself changed by the surge, on inland penetration of the storm surge. The Canadian waters that may be affected by storm surges include the east and west coasts, the Beaufort Sea, the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the St. Lawrence estuary, Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes.     

Seiches induced by storms in the English Channel

Investigation of an extreme storm surge event revealed the presence of an oscillation in sea level with a period of 2-6 h. The English Channel is well known for its quarter- and sixth-diurnal tides, and it was expected that these oscillations were simply the result of tide-surge interactions. However, results of model experiments permitted the reproduction of oscillations from wind forcing alone. The forcing used was from an extreme wind event in December 1989. In this article we describe these oscillations, and in particular their spatial characteristics. It is shown that the dominant response is a transverse mode of the English Channel, with minimum amplitude in the central Channel and maximum amplitude in the Baie de Seine and the Golfe de St Malo.     

Oceanographic features of Hecate Strait and Queen Charlotte Sound in Summer

Abstract

We present evidence of previously unresolved oceanographic features in Queen Charlotte Sound and Hecate Strait using data collected in the summer of 1990 and interpreted using a three‐dimensional, finite‐element diagnostic numerical model for two separate simulations: baroclinic flow without wind‐forcing and barotropic flow with wind‐forcing. Features include a strong, prevailing southward flow along the east coast of Moresby and Kunghit Islands, clockwise circulation around the edge of Middle Bank and a cold‐water plume flowing from the shallows at the north end of Aristazabal Island toward the south and through the trough between Middle Bank and Goose Island Bank A persistent (near‐surface) outflow into the Pacific Ocean is found near the surface within 20 km of Cape St. James at the southern tip of the Queen Charlotte Islands and intermittent surface outflows are observed across the mouth of Queen Charlotte Sound. In central Hecate Strait, to the north of Middle Bank, prevailing along‐strait currents are weak and there is an east‐west interleaving of two water masses: warm water from the west side of the strait and cold water from the east side.     

Statistical Characteristics and Modeling of Storm Surges in the North Caspian Sea

The characteristics of storm surges obtained from sea level observations at four hydrometeorological stations in the North Caspian Sea for 2003–2017 are presented. The sea level that by 30 cm exceeds the monthly mean value at the analyzed point of the Caspian Sea was considered as a surge. In total, 370 surges were registered, 83% of them occurred during the cold season (September-April). The maximum surge height was 125 cm, the longest duration was 7 days. The most significant surges on Tyulenii Island were simulated with the operational hydrodynamic model of the sea level and currents of the Caspian Sea using atmospheric forcing from the COSMO model. The mean coefficient of correlation between the simulated and observed sea level is equal to 0.94.     

Simulation of Extreme Surges in the Taganrog Bay with Atmosphere and Ocean Circulation Models

The simulation the most extreme surges over the period of instrumental observations in the Taganrog Bay since 1881, the surges occurred on March 24, 2013 and September 24, 2014. The objective of the simulation is to study surge formation features and to reveal requirements for the accuracy of simulating atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the Sea of Azov. For this purpose, the Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model (INMOM) with the spatial resolution of ~4 km and ~250 m was used. The atmospheric forcing over the Black Sea region was specified using ERA-Interim reanalysis data and WRF model data with the spatial resolution of 80 and 10 km, respectively. It is shown that the quality of simulation of extreme surges in the Sea of Azov is more dependent on the quality of the input atmospheric forcing than on the spatial resolution of the ocean circulation model. The usage of WRF data as atmospheric forcing allows the more accurate simulation of extreme surges. However, the simulation of the extreme surge of 2014 overestimates, and simulations for the 2013 surge underestimate the surge level. Evidently, as the used version of INMOM does not take into account the coastal zone flooding, the maximum surge value is overestimated.     

0703温带气旋特大风暴潮数值模拟对比分析

为验证德国汉堡大学所开发的三维陆架模式HAMSOM(Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model)对渤海海域气旋风暴潮模拟的可行性和准确度, 并对不同来源气象数据的模拟结果进行比较, 分别使用T213和NCEP资料的风场和气压场数据, 运用HAM SOM模式对2007年3月4—5日发生在渤海和黄海北部的气旋风暴潮增水过程进行了数值模拟。模拟结果较好地反映出烟台、威海两站风暴潮增水过程的水位变化, 较准确地模拟出风暴潮在渤海、黄海北部的增水过程, 且T213资料比NCEP资料的模拟结果更接近实况, 该模式对研究和模拟渤海气旋风暴潮比较适用。     

Decadal and long-term sea level variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean

In this study, we analysed decadal and long-term steric sea level variations over 1966–2007 period in the Indo-Pacific sector, using an ocean general circulation model forced by reanalysis winds. The simulated steric sea level compares favourably with sea level from satellite altimetry and tide gauges at interannual and decadal timescales. The amplitude of decadal sea level variability (up to ~5 cm standard deviation) is typically nearly half of the interannual variations (up to ~10 cm) and two to three times larger than long-term sea level variations (up to 2 cm). Zonal wind stress varies at decadal timescales in the western Pacific and in the southern Indian Ocean, with coherent signals in ERA-40 (from which the model forcing is derived), NCEP, twentieth century and WASWind products. Contrary to the variability at interannual timescale, for which there is a tendency of El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole events to co-occur, decadal wind stress variations are relatively independent in the two basins. In the Pacific, those wind stress variations drive Ekman pumping on either side of the equator, and induce low frequency sea level variations in the western Pacific through planetary wave propagation. The equatorial signal from the western Pacific travels southward to the west Australian coast through equatorial and coastal wave guides. In the Indian Ocean, decadal zonal wind stress variations induce sea level fluctuations in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal, through equatorial and coastal wave-guides. Wind stress curl in the southern Indian Ocean drives decadal variability in the south-western Indian Ocean through planetary waves. Decadal sea level variations in the south–western Indian Ocean, in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and in the Bay of Bengal are weakly correlated to variability in the Pacific Ocean. Even though the wind variability is coherent among various wind products at decadal timescales, they show a large contrast in long-term wind stress changes, suggesting that long-term sea level changes from forced ocean models need to be interpreted with caution.     

Covariation of the Indonesian Throughflow and South China Sea Throughflow Associated with the 1976/77 Regime Shift

Changes in the Indonesian Throughflow(ITF) and the South China Sea throughflow—measured by the Luzon Strait Transport(LST)—associated with the 1976/77 regime shift are analyzed using the Island Rule theory and the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation dataset.Results show that LST increased but ITF transport decreased after 1975.Such changes were induced by variations in wind stress associated with the regime shift.The strengthening of the easterly wind anomaly east of the Luzon Strait played an important role in ...     

Declining Oxygen on the British Columbia Continental Shelf

The first thorough examination of oxygen concentrations in Canadian waters of the Pacific Ocean reveals several patterns in space and time. Sub-surface concentrations of oxygen tend to be lower in shelf waters than in deep-sea waters on the same isopycnal and lower in southern waters of the continental shelf than farther north. The lowest near-bottom concentration was 0.7 ml L^?1 (31 μmol kg^?1) in mid-shelf waters in summer off southwest Vancouver Island in the Juan de Fuca Eddy region. Oxygen concentration there declined at a rate of 0.019 ml L^?1 y^?1 (0.83 μmol kg^?1 y^?1) from 1979 to 2011. This decline is attributed mainly to changes in oxygen concentrations on the same density surfaces, rather than to changes in the depth of constant-density surfaces. A numerical simulation of ocean currents and nutrient concentrations in and surrounding the Juan de Fuca Eddy in summer reveals persistent upwelling into the centre of this eddy and slow bottom currents within the eddy. Upwelled water at bottom of the Juan de Fuca Eddy has water properties associated with the California Undercurrent on the 26.6 sigma-t surface at 200 m depth, where oxygen concentration is typically 2.0 ml L^?1 (87 μmol kg^?1) and declined at a rate of 0.025 ml L^?1 y^?1 (1.1 μmol kg^?1 y^?1) from 1981 to 2011, mainly as a result of changes on constant-density surfaces rather than to uplifting isopycnals. We propose that upwelling advects deep, oxygen-poor water onto the continental shelf bottom, and the slow bottom currents allow time for oxidation of organic material in bottom waters to further reduce the oxygen concentration.

RÉSUMÉ?[Traduit par la rédaction] Le premier examen approfondi des concentrations d'oxygène dans les eaux canadiennes de l'océan Pacifique révèle plusieurs configurations dans le temps et dans l'espace. Les concentrations d'oxygène sous la surface ont tendance à être plus faibles dans les eaux de la plate-forme continentale que dans les eaux de l'océan profond sur la même isopycne et plus faibles dans les eaux du sud de la plate-forme que plus loin au nord. La concentration la plus faible près du fond était de 0.7 ml L^?1 (31 μmol kg^?1) dans les eaux du milieu de la plate-forme en été au large du sud-ouest de l’île de Vancouver dans la région du remous de Juan de Fuca. Les concentrations en oxygène à cet endroit ont diminué au rythme de 0.019 ml L^?1 a^?1 (0.83 μmol kg^?1 a^?1) entre 1979 et 2011. Cette diminution est principalement attribuée aux changements dans les concentrations d'oxygène sur les surfaces d’égale densité plutôt qu'aux changements dans la profondeur des surfaces de densité constante. Une simulation numérique des courants océaniques et des concentrations de nutrients dans le remous de Juan de Fuca et dans les régions avoisinantes en été révèle des remontées d'eau froide persistantes vers le centre de ce remous et des courants de fond lents à l'intérieur du remous. L'eau qui a remonté au fond du remous de Juan de Fuca a des propriétés liées au sous-courant de Californie sur la surface sigma–t 26.6 à une profondeur de 200 m, où la concentration en oxygène est normalement de 2.0 ml L^?1 (87 μmol kg^?1), et a diminué au taux de 0.025 ml L^?1 a^?1 (1.1 μmol kg^?1 a^?1) de 1981 à 2011, principalement à cause des changements sur les surfaces de densité constante plutôt que du soulèvement des isopycnes. Nous pausons l'hypothèse que les remontées d'eau advectent des eaux profondes pauvres en oxygène au bas de la plate-forme continentale et que les lents courants de fond donnent le temps à l'oxydation de la matière organique dans les eaux de fond, ce qui réduit davantage la concentration de l'oxygène.     

渤海西岸致灾风暴潮的统计预报模型

渤海西岸是风暴潮灾害多发区,1990年代以后发生几率和灾害损失明显增加。利用气象科学和海洋水文科学相结合的方法,依据黄骅港潮汐资料,对发生在渤海西岸的风暴潮进行统计分析。结果表明,台风和强冷空气配合气旋是造成渤海西岸风暴潮的主要天气系统,偏东大风增水和天文潮叠加是造成风暴潮的直接因素;风暴潮和天文潮汐都有半日潮现象。在此基础上,建立了渤海西岸风暴潮预报模型,通过台风或冷空气配合气旋影响时增水值的计算,结合天文潮汐资料,做出最高潮位预报。应用该预报方法对渤海西岸发生的7次风暴潮进行回报,预报值与实测值基本相当,是基层台站较实用的预报方法。     

Modelling the variability of midlatitude storm activity on decadal to century time scales

The output of several multi-century simulations with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model is examined with respect to the variability of global storm activity in winter on time scales of decades and longer. The frequency of maximum wind speed events within a grid box, using the lower limits on the Beaufort wind speed scale of 8 and 10 Bft as thresholds, is taken as the characteristic parameter. Two historical climate runs with time-dependent forcing of the last five centuries, one control simulation, and three climate change experiments are considered. The storm frequency shows no trend until recently. Global maps for the industrially influenced period hardly differ from pre-industrial maps, even though significant temperature anomalies temporarily emerge in the historical runs. Two indicators describing the frequency and the regional shift of storm activity are determined. In historical times they are decoupled from temperature. Variations in solar and volcanic forcing in the historical simulations as well as in greenhouse gas concentrations for the industrially influenced period are not related to variations in storm activity. Also, anomalous temperature regimes like the Late Maunder Minimum are not associated with systematic storm conditions. In the climate change experiments, a poleward shift of storm activity is found in all three storm track regions. Over the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, storm activity increases, while it decreases over the Pacific Ocean. In contrast to the historical runs, and with the exception of the North Pacific storm frequency index, the storm indices parallel the development of temperature, exceeding the 2 σ-range of pre-industrial variations in the early twenty-first century.