首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
西北农牧交错带生态环境脆弱,区位特殊性和生态重要性使其在我国社会经济发展和生态环境保护方面具有重要战略意义。通过对该区域进行土地利用优化配置,使有限的土地资源支撑起生态环境保护和经济发展的重任是本文的出发点。多目标遗传算法和FLUS模型的应用可以从多方面(数量结构、空间布局、综合效益)完善土地利用优化配置,为土地利用优化配置提供更多的选择方案。本文选用多目标遗传算法和FLUS模型对该区域进行2025年的土地利用变化模拟,通过设置自然发展、生态保护优先、经济发展优先、生态-经济均衡4种情景,探讨了如何在兼顾生态环境保护与社会经济发展的情况下进行土地利用的优化配置。结果表明,基于生态-经济均衡情景下的优化方案,土地利用类型的数量结构和空间布局更为合理,其综合效益优于另外3种情景。该情景在合理限制经济发展速度的前提下,使生态建设获得稳定发展,其经济效益较生态保护优先情景下增长了8.96%,生态效益较经济发展优先情景下增长了0.77%,在生态保护与经济发展2种目标之间达到平衡,为西北农牧交错带的土地利用规划提供了决策辅助。  相似文献   

2.
基于综合承载力的北京市适度人口研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
北京作为中国的政治、经济和文化中心,资源短缺、交通拥堵和生态环境恶化等问题日益严重,确定其适度人口规模,对引导区域人口合理流动和环境保护具有一定的现实意义。本文基于综合承载力,对已有的适度人口模型进行了改进:利用主成分分析法和熵权法确定生态、经济和资源承载系统的权重;经济承载人口测算指标不局限于地区生产总值(GDP)这一单一指标;资源承载人口综合考虑了土地资源和水资源承载力。本文通过综合分析2004-2014年北京各项承载人口和适度人口,结果表明:① 生态承载人口规模在波动中有增长的趋势,由717.38万人上升至753.14万人,一直处于人口超载状态;② 经济承载人口一直处于富余状态,但规模由5297.18万人减少至3802.06万人。第三产业产值所承载的人口对经济承载人口的贡献最大,在2014年达到65.15%;③ 资源承载人口规模处于波动状态,2014年为139.61万人,超载率逐年增加。土地资源承载力对资源承载人口的贡献大于水资源,2014年贡献率达79.91%;④ 北京市适度人口规模从2004年的2031.15万人减少至2014年的1550.67万人,2008年开始出现人口赤字,且人口超载率逐年攀升。经济承载人口对适度人口贡献率维持在80%以上,生态和资源承载人口的贡献率平均值分别为14%和3%。人口资源压力指数在波动中有上升的趋势,从2004年的9.45上升至2014年的15.41,资源约束已经成为阻碍城市发展的主要因素,经济承载力是维持适度人口规模缓慢减小的主要动力。  相似文献   

3.
Alpine treeline, as a prominent ecological boundary between forested mountain slopes and alpine meadow/shrub, is highly complex in altitudinal distribution and sensitive to warming climate. Great efforts have been made to explore their distribution patterns and ecological mechanisms that determine these patterns for more than 100 years, and quite a number of geographical and ecophysiological models have been developed to correlate treeline altitude with latitude or a latitude related temperature. However,on a global scale, all of these models have great difficulties to accurately predict treeline elevation due to the extreme diversity of treeline site conditions.One of the major reasons is that "mass elevation effect"(MEE) has not been quantified globally and related with global treeline elevations although it has been observed and its effect on treeline elevations in the Eurasian continent and Northern Hemisphere recognized. In this study, we collected and compiled a total of 594 treeline sites all over the world from literatures, and explored how MEE affects globaltreeline elevation by developing a ternary linear regression model with intra-mountain base elevation(IMBE, as a proxy of MEE), latitude and continentality as independent variables. The results indicated that IMBE, latitude and continentality together could explain 92% of global treeline elevation variability, and that IMBE contributes the most(52.2%), latitude the second(40%) and continentality the least(7.8%) to the altitudinal distribution of global treelines. In the Northern Hemisphere, the three factors’ contributions amount to 50.4%, 45.9% and 3.7% respectively; in the south hemisphere, their contributions are 38.3%, 53%, and 8.7%, respectively. This indicates that MEE, virtually the heating effect of macro-landforms, is actually the most significant factor for the altitudinal distribution of treelines across the globe, and that latitude is relatively more significant for treeline elevation in the Southern Hemisphere probably due to fewer macro-landforms there.  相似文献   

4.
本文以中国市域单元为研究对象,利用1990-2010年人口普查数据,采用探索性空间数据分析的方法,分析了过去20 年间中国市级人口增长率的空间分布特征和多变量的空间依赖关系。使用空间计量模型和空间滤波后的经典线性回归模型分别探究了经济、气候、地形、社会文化等因素对中国市级人口增长率的影响。模型对比结果显示,经过空间滤波后的经典线性回归模型能够更好的模拟中国市级人口增长率的变化。在该模型中,经济因素是影响中国城市人口增长率的主要因素,例如代表城市经济发展水平的城市夜光指数密度。气候因素对人口增长率也有着不可忽视的作用,如七月热指数随着等级的提升对人口增长率有着越来越强的负向影响。研究结果表明:人口的区域增长模式是多要素综合作用的结果,在相关建模研究和政策制定中需要重点考虑经济发展水平和气候条件因素对人口增长趋势的不同影响。  相似文献   

5.
城市人口分布与活动呈现高度的时空动态变化,掌握人口时空变化特征并进行未来预测,对于精准人口评估、有效的政策措施制定、实时的人口预警与调控等具有重要意义。本研究利用以手机信令数据为主的多源时空数据,首先利用地理探测q统计进行探索性数据分析,其次结合贝叶斯模型进行北京市朝阳区居住人口的时空变化探究及时空预测,以期达到对朝阳区人口的动态评估与预测。首先,选用地理探测q统计进行空间异质性探测,用贝叶斯时空层次模型探究基于手机信令数据推算的北京市朝阳区居住人口的总体空间效应、总体时间效应以及局部变化趋势;其次,选用贝叶斯高斯预测过程模型,基于朝阳区各街乡的居住人口及相关人口影响因子数据进行朝阳区各街乡2017年12月的居住人口预测。时空探究表明:朝阳区居住人口在空间上存在完美空间分异,整体呈现沿环路由内向外递增的空间分布格局,整体时间趋势表现为增长,各街乡局部时间变化趋势呈现一定差异。预测的空间分布与实测空间分布整体一致,精度较高,各街乡预测精度不一。结果表明基于贝叶斯理论的时空层次模型和高斯预测过程模型可以为多源时空数据下的多尺度精准识别与人口时空模式挖掘提供有效的方法支撑。  相似文献   

6.
《山地科学学报》2020,17(1):68-82
Global climate change poses a new challenge for species and can even push some species toward an extinction vortex. The most affected organisms are those with narrow tolerance to the climatic factors but many large mammals such as ungulates with a wider ecological niche are also being affected indirectly. Our research mainly used wild sheep in central Iran as a model species to explore how the suitable habitats will change under different climatic scenarios and to determine if current borders of protected areas will adequately protect habitat requirements. To create habitat models we used animal-vehicle collision points as an input for species presence data. We ran habitat models using Max Ent modeling approach under different climatic scenarios of the past, present and future(under the climatic scenarios for minimum(RCP2.6) and maximum(RCP8.5) CO2 concentration trajectories). We tried to estimate the overlap and the width of the ecological niche using relevant metrics. In order to analyze the effectiveness of the protected areas, suitable maps were concerted to binary maps using True Skill Statistic(TSS) threshold and measured the similarity of the binary maps for each scenario using Kappa index. In order to assess the competence of the present protected areas boundary in covering the distribution of species, two different scenarios were employed, which are ensemble scenario 1: an ensemble of the binary maps of the species distribution in Mid-Holocene, present, and RCP2.6;and ensemble scenario 2: an ensemble of binary suitability maps in Mid-Holocene, present, and RCP8.5. Then, the borders of modeled habitats with the boundaries of 23 existing protected areas in two central provinces in Iran were compared. The predicted species distribution under scenario 1(RCP2.6) was mostly similar to its current distribution(Kappa = 0.53) while the output model under scenario 2(RCP8.5) indicated a decline in the species distribution range. Under the first ensemble scenario, current borders of the protected areas in Hamedan province showed better efficiency to cover the model species distribution range. Analyzing Max Ent spatial models under the second climatic scenario suggested that protected areas in both Markazi and Hamedan provinces will not cover "high suitability" areas in the future. Modeling the efficiency of the current protected areas under predicted future climatic scenarios can help the related authorities to plan conservation activities more efficiently.  相似文献   

7.
本文依据武陵山区遥感调查数据及社会经济统计数据,运用灰色关联度模型计算2000年和2010年生态安全综合指数,并对研究区生态安全综合指数的时空演变特征进行分析.结果表明:(1)2000年研究区生态安全综合指数处于Ⅲ级临界安全和Ⅱ级较差安全水平,2010年生态安全综合指数整体处于Ⅲ级临界安全水平之上;(2)2期Moran's I指数分别为0.3828及0.4411,P值均小于0.01,生态安全综合指数在空间上表现出较强正相关,存在空间聚集性,且2010年聚集性更强;(3)武陵山区2期生态安全综合指数空间分布出现较大变化,且都呈现高值,低值聚集;(4)生态安全综合指数与扶贫人口比例及森林覆盖率呈正相关,与农民人均纯收入没有必然的联系.  相似文献   

8.
园林植物知识图谱可为顾及区域适应性、观赏性和生态性等因子的绿化树种的选型提供知识支持。植物描述文本的实体识别及关系抽取是知识图谱构建的关键环节。针对植物领域未有公开的标注数据集,本文阐述了园林植物数据集的构建流程,定义了园林植物的概念体系结构,完成了园林植物语料库的构建。针对现有Word2vec、ELMo和BERT等语言模型存在无法解决多义词、融合上下文能力差、运行速度慢等缺点,提出了嵌入ALBERT(A Lite BERT)预训练语言模型的实体识别和关系抽取模型。ALBERT预训练的动态词向量能够有效地表示文本特征,将其分别输入到BiGRU-CRF命名实体识别模型和BiGRU-Attention关系抽取模型中进行训练,进一步提升实体识别和关系抽取的效果。在园林植物语料库上进行方法的有效性验证,结果表明ALBERT-BiGRU-CRF命名实体识别模型的F1值为0.9517,ALBERT-BiGRU-Attention关系抽取模型的F1值为0.9161,相较于经典的语言模型(如Word2vec、ELMo和BERT等)性能有较为显著的提升。因此基于ALBERT模型的实体与关系抽取任务能有效提高识别分类效果,可将其应用于植物描述文本的实体关系抽取任务中,为园林植物知识图谱自动构建提供方法。  相似文献   

9.
The ecological footprint concept and its calculation models are useful for the measurement of the sustainable level of social and economic development.The ecological security situation of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area(TGRA) was evaluated using this concept in this study.The construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir has led to the change in the ecology and immigration status of TGRA.The ecological footprint method is an important means to study the regional ecological security.Our results suggested that,by excluding the areas for biodiversity conservation(12% of the total land),the ecological footprint per capita was 0.57895 ha,which exceeded the ecological carrying capacity in TGRA.The total ecological deficit was found to be 11,522,193.34 ha,accounting for 95.02% of the ecological carrying capacity.These findings suggested that the ecological security of TGRA was not good.In order to compensate for the ecological deficit,it was essential to introduce natural resources from other regions.  相似文献   

10.
村镇应急公共设施选址布局优化研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
应急公共设施对防灾减灾具有重要作用,但相关研究和实践通常围绕城市展开,中国村镇地域广阔、环境复杂,传统方法规划的应急公共设施布局无法满足村镇的需求。因此,针对村镇进行更加精细化的应急公共设施布局优化十分必要。本文主要研究内容包括:① 建立包括地理因素、交通条件、人口分布情况和危险源分布情况在内的应急设施适宜性用地指标体系,并避免在地质灾害、洪水等灾害高发区域建设;② 对仅需要承担应急服务的设施,建立集合覆盖模型和最大化覆盖模型两级选址模型进行分析,对需要承担公共服务和应急服务双重任务的设施,建立集合覆盖模型和p-中值模型进行分析;③ 以响应覆盖率、交叉响应率作为效率性评价指标,最大响应时间、平均响应时间作为公平性评价指标,综合评价设施选址方案。本文以神农架林区松柏镇为研究区域,以消防设施和应急医疗救助中心分别作为两类典型应急公共设施进行布局,得到以下结论:① 应急设施适宜性用地评价指标体系能够综合评价应急设施选址时需要考虑的各种因素,具有较强的实用性;② 对多选址方案进行对比,模型计算结果在效率性和公平性指标方面优于原选址方案,同时结合人口分布、实际用地情况和成本因素能够确定更为优化的布局方案,验证了方法的可行性和科学性。  相似文献   

11.
Along with the development of urban economy, the growth of urban population and the increase of needs of urban society, the suburban ecological and economic system changes constantly and profoundly in its structure and function. Intensifying the research on structural analysis of suburban ecological and economic system is of great significance for grasping light the laws governing the development and evolution of the suburban ecological and economic system and leading this system onto a path of sound circle. By making comprehensive use of the cluster analysis and latent structural analysis the author attempts to explore a new avenue of revealing the structure of suburban ecological and economic system, taking Tianjin suburbs and counties as an example. The results obtained from the above-stated analyses show that it is entirely possible and extremely effective to study the structure and function of suburban ecological and economic system and provide scientific evidence for control of this system by using mathematical methods and statistical analyses.  相似文献   

12.
Rocky habitats are regarded as biodiversity hot-spots.Along with high species diversity,diverse ecological relationships can be observed in these habitats.Large groups of bird species use rocks in various ways:as perching/roosting sites,breeding or foraging habitats,information exchange sites,display arenas or as sources of minerals and water.Because of the inaccessibility of these environments,their role and importance to animals has been underestimated.We evaluated the use of rocky habitats by birds in the Tatra Mountains(49°13'N,19°57'E,Carpathians,central Europe).Rocky habitats were used by 29 bird species,eight of which used cliffs directly(i.e.for nesting,foraging or resting).The number of species recorded as using cliffs was correlated with the surface area of the cliff face.A total of 20 forms of rocky habitat use were recorded,in five behavioural categories:vocalization,foraging,perching,flight and nesting.Prevailing behaviours were flying by a rock face,circling above the face,and vocalization on a tree/shrub growing next to a rock.Rocks provide a nesting habitat for specialized petrophilic species and permit the existence of numerous ecological relations between species and habitats.The results of this study show that rocky habitats support the diversity of ecological relationships.  相似文献   

13.
ASTUDYONSTRUCTURALANALYSISOFSUBURBANECOLOGICALANDECONOMICSYSTEM─TakingTianjinSuburbsandCountiesforExample¥ZhangBaoguang(张宝光)(...  相似文献   

14.
Rapid urbanization leads to dramatic changes in land use patterns, and the land use/cover change(LUCC) can reflect the spatial impact of urbanization on the ecological environment. Simulating the process of LUCC and predicting the ecological risk future changes can provide supports for urban ecological management. Taking the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration(YRDUA),China as the study area, four developmental scenarios were set on the basis of the land use data from 2005 to 2015. The temporal land use changes were predicted by the integration of the system dynamic and the future land use simulation(SD-FLUS) model, and the geographically weighted regression(GWR) model was used to identify the spatial heterogeneity and evolution characteristics between ecological risk index(ERI) and socio-economic driving forces. Results showed that: 1) From 2005 to 2015, the expansion of construction land(7670.24 km~2) mainly came from the occupation of cultivated land(7854.22 km~2). The Kappa coefficient of the SD-FLUS model was 0.886, indicating that this model could be used to predict the future land use changes in the YRDUA. 2) Gross domestic production(GDP) and population density(POP) showed a positive effect on the ERI, and the impact of POP exceeded that of GDP. The ERI showed the characteristics of zonal diffusion and a slight upward trend, and the high ecological risk region increased by 6.09%, with the largest increase. 3) Under different developmental scenarios, the land use and ecological risk patterns varied. The construction land is increased by 5.76%, 7.41%, 5.25% and 6.06%, respectively. And the high ecological risk region accounted for 12.71%, 15.06%, 11.89%,and 12.94%, correspondingly. In Scenario D, the structure of land use and ecological risk pattern was better compared with other scenarios considering the needs of rapid economic and ecological protection. This study is helpful to understand the spatio-temporal pattern and demand of land use types, grasp the ecological security pattern of large-scale areas, and provide scientific basis for the territory development of urban agglomeration in the future.  相似文献   

15.
Evaluation on the population pressure in the mountainous areas is a necessary condition for the protection and good governance. The evaluation depends on accurate population density assessment. Traditional methods used to calculate population density often adopt the administrative region as a scale for statistical analysis. These methods did not consider the effects of the relief degree of land surface(RDLS) on the population distribution. Therefore they cannot accurately reflect the degree of population aggregation, especially in mountainous areas. To explore this issue further, we took the mountainous areas of China as the research area. China has A total area of 666 km2 can be classified as mountainous area,accounting for 69.4% of the country’s total landmass. The data used in this research included the digital elevation model(DEM) of China at a scale of 1:1,000,000, National population density raster data, the DEM and the national population density raster data. First, we determined the relief degree of land surface(RDLS). Next, we conducted a correlation analysis between the population distribution and the RDLS using the Statistical Package for Social Science(SPSS). Based on the correlation analysis results and population distribution, this new method was used to revise the provincial population density of themountainous areas. The revised results were used to determine the population pressure of different mountainous areas. Overall, the following results were obtained:(1) The RDLS was low in most mountainous areas(with a value between 0 and 3.5) and exhibited a spatial pattern that followed the physiognomy of China;(2) The relationship between the RDLS and population density were logarithmic, with an R2 value up to 0.798(p<0.05), and the correlation decreased from east to west;(3) The difference between the revised population density(RPD) and the traditional population density(PD) was larger in the southeastern region of China than in the northwestern region;(4) In addition, compared with traditional results, the revised result indicated that the population pressure was larger. Based on these results, the following conclusions were made:(1) the revised method for estimating population density that incorporates the RDLS is reasonable and practical,(2) the potential population pressure in the southeastern mountainous areas is substantial,(3) the characteristics of the terrain in the high mountainous areas are important for the scattered distribution of the population, and(4) the population distribution of mountainous areas in China should be guided by local conditions, such as social, economic, and topographic conditions.  相似文献   

16.
1 Introduction It is indisputable that the urbanization has been consid- ered as an important indicator for evaluating a nation’s or a region’s modernization and industrialization. Therefore, the issue of urbanization will arouse wide and remarkable concern in both domestic and international geography in the 21st century. From a comprehensive survey of the development of urbanization all over the world, some successful modes of urbanization, such as the American mode and the Japanese mode, …  相似文献   

17.
 内插模型的精度评价问题一直是DEM内插研究中的热点问题。以往较多的研究关注插值模型本身的精度评价,却忽略了插值模型与应用环境之间的交互作用,例如,普通克里金方法作DEM内插一般精度较差,但是当插值区域平坦时,该方法的插值精度却很高,这表明该方法对平坦地形的插值问题具有较好的适应性。为了分析不同插值模型在不同地形环境下的适用性,本文选取陕北黄土高原地区不同地貌类型的实验样区,应用AMMI模型对不同内插模型的精度,以及对不同地貌类型的适用性进行评价,该模型最大的特点是很好地结合了方差分析与回归分析的特点,特别适合于不同影响因素之间交互作用的分析。实验结果表明,AMMI模型可以有效地分析内插方法与地貌环境对内插精度的交互作用,不同的内插方法对不同的地貌类型区的适用性存在差异。以本文的研究为例,在陕北黄土高原地区最稳定的DEM内插方法是样条函数法,而反距离加权法与Top to Raster方法精度会更高。最后,通过对环境指数与若干地形因子的相关性分析,表明地貌类型区的坡度可以粗略地代表第一环境指数。  相似文献   

18.
Constructing a statistical model that best fits the background is a key step in geochemical anomaly identification.But the model is hard to be constructed in situations where the sample population has unknown and/or complex distribution.Isolation forest is an outlier detection approach that explicitly isolates anomaly samples rather than models the population distribution.It can extract multivariate anomalies from huge-sized high-dimensional data with unknown population distribution.For this reason, we tentatively applied the method to identify multivariate anomalies from the stream sediment survey data of the Lalingzaohuo district, an area with a complex geological setting, in Qinghai Province in China.The performance of the isolation forest algorithm in anomaly identification was compared with that of a continuous restricted Boltzmann machine.The results show that the isolation forest model performs superiorly to the continuous restricted Boltzmann machine in multivariate anomaly identification in terms of receiver operating characteristic curve, area under the curve, and data-pro-cessing efficiency.The anomalies identified by the isolation forest model occupy 19%of the study area and con-tain 82%of the known mineral deposits, whereas the anomalies identified by the continuous restricted Boltz-mann machine occupy 35%of the study area and contain 88% of the known mineral deposits.It takes 4.07 and 279.36 seconds respectively handling the dataset using the two models.Therefore, isolation forest is a use-ful anomaly detection method that can quickly extract multivariate anomalies from geochemical exploration data.  相似文献   

19.
喀斯特地区不同石漠化等级的结构和格局是实现区域石漠化治理的重要基础信息,受技术手段的限制,目前这方面的研究进展仍非常缓慢。随着无人机技术的快速发展,高精度的地表信息获取越来越方便、且成本较低。本研究利用无人机影像,对比了基于像元的非监督和监督分类方法以及面向对象的分类方法在裸岩信息提取中的表现,发现面向对象分类结果具有更高精度。基于获得的裸岩分布信息的研究结果表明:① 岩石平均斑块面积与裸岩率呈负相关的关系,岩石斑块个数与裸岩率呈正相关关系;② 通过对比不同裸岩率(11%、20%、29%和48%)基质的景观斑块指数、景观形状指数和景观破碎度指数对不同裸岩率的景观分布的影响,从而表明了在不同的石漠化地区随着裸岩率的增加,岩石形状指数与岩石破碎度指数均逐渐增加,进而表明石漠化程度越严重;③ 裸岩率不同的地区表现不同的分布形态和斑块特征,裸岩率越高,岩石越破碎,斑块分布较为分散。小尺度斑块景观格局与区域的生态过程有着重要关系,开展小尺度景观格局的研究会深化区域尺度石漠化发展过程的理解。石漠化地区的小尺度斑块景观格局变化影响区域的生态过程,对以后的石漠化过程以及未来石漠化演变的发展有重要的启示作用。  相似文献   

20.
Sanduao is an important sea-breeding bay in Fujian, South China and holds a high economic status in aquaculture. Quickly and accurately obtaining information including the distribution area, quantity, and aquaculture area is important for breeding area planning, production value estimation, ecological survey, and storm surge prevention. However, as the aquaculture area expands, the seawater background becomes increasingly complex and spectral characteristics differ dramatically, making it difficult to determine the aquaculture area. In this study, we used a high-resolution remote-sensing satellite GF-2 image to introduce a deep-learning Richer Convolutional Features(RCF) network model to extract the aquaculture area. Then we used the density of aquaculture as an assessment index to assess the vulnerability of aquaculture areas in Sanduao. The results demonstrate that this method does not require land and water separation of the area in advance, and good extraction can be achieved in the areas with more sediment and waves, with an extraction accuracy 93%, which is suitable for large-scale aquaculture area extraction. Vulnerability assessment results indicate that the density of aquaculture in the eastern part of Sanduao is considerably high, reaching a higher vulnerability level than other parts.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号