Interplanetary phenomena associated with very intense geomagnetic storms

The dominant interplanetary phenomena that are frequently associated with intense magnetic storms are the interplanetary manifestations of fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Two such interplanetary structures, involving an intense and long duration B_s component of the IMF are: the sheath region behind a fast forward interplanetary shock, and the CME ejecta itself. Frequently, these structures lead to the development of intense storms with two-step growth in their main phases.These structures, when combined, lead sometimes to the development of very intense storms, especially when an additional interplanetary shock is found in the sheath plasma of the primary structure accompanying another stream. The second stream can also compress the primary cloud, intensifying the B_s field, and bringing with it an additional B_s structure. Thus, at times very intense storms are associated with three or more B_s structures.Another aspect that can contribute to the development of very intense storms refers to the recent finding that magnetic clouds with very intense core magnetic fields tend to have large velocities, thus implying large amplitude interplanetary electric fields that can drive very intense magnetospheric energization.     

Solar connections of geoeffective magnetic structures

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and high-speed solar wind streams (HSS) are two solar phenomena that produce large-scale structures in the interplanetary (IP) medium. CMEs evolve into interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) and the HSS result in corotating interaction regions (CIRs) when they interact with preceding slow solar wind. This paper summarizes the properties of these structures and describes their geoeffectiveness. The primary focus is on the intense storms of solar cycle 23 because this is the first solar cycle during which simultaneous, extensive, and uniform data on solar, IP, and geospace phenomena exist. After presenting illustrative examples of coronal holes and CMEs, I discuss the internal structure of ICMEs, in particular the magnetic clouds (MCs). I then discuss how the magnetic field and speed correlate in the sheath and cloud portions of ICMEs. CME speed measured near the Sun also has significant correlations with the speed and magnetic field strengths measured at 1 AU. The dependence of storm intensity on MC, sheath, and CME properties is discussed pointing to the close connection between solar and IP phenomena. I compare the delay time between MC arrival at 1 AU and the peak time of storms for the cloud and sheath portions and show that the internal structure of MCs leads to the variations in the observed delay times. Finally, we examine the variation of solar-source latitudes of IP structures as a function of the solar cycle and find that they have to be very close to the disk center.     

Probing the magnetic topology of coronal mass ejections by means of Ulysses/HI-SCALE energetic particle observations

In this work, solar flare energetic particle fluxes (E_e 42 keV) observed by the HI-SCALE instrument onboard Ulysses, a spacecraft that is probing the heliosphere in 3-D, are utilized as diagnostics of the large-scale structure and topology of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) embedded within two well-identified interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) structures. On the basis of the energetic solar flare particle observations firm conclusions are drawn on whether the detected ICMEs have been detached from the solar corona or are still magnetically anchored to it when they arrive at 2.5 AU. From the development of the angular distributions of the particle intensities, we have inferred that portions of the ICMEs studied consisted of both open and closed magnetic field lines. Both ICMEs present a filamentary structure comprising magnetic filaments with distinct electron anisotropy characteristics. Subsequently, we studied the evolution of the anisotropies of the energetic electrons along the magnetic field loop-like structure of one ICME and computed the characteristic decay time of the anisotropy which is a measure of the amount of scattering that the trapped electron population underwent after injection at the Sun.     

Magnetic clouds and interplanetary particle transport: a numerical model

Magnetic clouds modify the structure of the interplanetary magnetic field on spatial scales of tenth of AU. Their influence on the transport of energetic charged particles is studied with a numerical model that treats the magnetic cloud as an outward propagating modification of the focusing length. As a rule of thumb, the influence of the magnetic cloud on particle intensity and anisotropy profiles increases with decreasing particle mean free path and decreasing particle speed. Three cases are considered: (1) when the magnetic cloud is the driver of a shock that accelerates particles as it propagates outward, (2) when the magnetic cloud interacts with a prior solar energetic particle event, and (3) when a magnetic cloud already is present in interplanetary space at the time of a solar energetic particle event. In the latter case the cloud acts as a barrier, storing the bulk of the particles in its downstream medium.     

Dependence of geomagnetic activity during magnetic storms on the solar wind parameters for different types of streams: 2. Main phase of storm

The paper analyses the development of the main phase of magnetic storms with Dst ≤ −50 nT, the interplanetary source of which consists of eight types of solar wind streams: magnetic clouds (MC, 17 storms); corotating interaction regions (CIR, 49 storms); Ejecta (50 storms); compressed region (Sheath) before Ejecta Sh_E (34 storms); the Sheath before a magnetic cloud Sh_MC (6 storms); all Sheath before all ICME, Sh_E + Sh_MC (40 storms); all ICME, MC + Ejecta (67 storms); and an indeterminate type of stream IND (34 storms).     

Multiscale MHD simulation of a coronal mass ejection and its interaction with the magnetosphere–ionosphere system

We report on the first comprehensive numerical simulation of a space weather event, starting with the generation of a CME and subsequently following this transient solar wind disturbance as it evolves into a magnetic cloud and travels through interplanetary space towards Earth where its interaction with the terrestrial magnetosphere–ionosphere system is also predicted as part of the simulation.     

Planetary distribution of geomagnetic pulsations during a geomagnetic storm at solar minimum

We investigate the features of the planetary distribution of wave phenomena (geomagnetic pulsations) in the Earth’s magnetic shell (the magnetosphere) during a strong geomagnetic storm on December 14–15, 2006, which is untypical of the minimum phase of solar activity. The storm was caused by the approach of the interplanetary magnetic cloud towards the Earth’s magnetosphere. The study is based on the analysis of 1-min data of global digital geomagnetic observations at a few latitudinal profiles of the global network of ground-based magnetic stations. The analysis is focused on the Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations, whose frequencies fall in the band of 1.5–7 mHz (T ～ 2–10 min), on the fluctuations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and in the solar wind density in this frequency band. It is shown that during the initial phase of the storm with positive IMF Bz, most intense geomagnetic pulsations were recorded in the dayside polar regions. It was supposed that these pulsations could probably be caused by the injection of the fluctuating streams of solar wind into the Earth’s ionosphere in the dayside polar cusp region. The fluctuations arising in the ionospheric electric currents due to this process are recorded as the geomagnetic pulsations by the ground-based magnetometers. Under negative IMF Bz, substorms develop in the nightside magnetosphere, and the enhancement of geomagnetic pulsations was observed in this latitudinal region on the Earth’s surface. The generation of these pulsations is probably caused by the fluctuations in the field-aligned magnetospheric electric currents flowing along the geomagnetic field lines from the substorm source region. These geomagnetic pulsations are not related to the fluctuations in the interplanetary medium. During the main phase of the magnetic storm, when fluctuations in the interplanetary medium are almost absent, the most intense geomagnetic pulsations were observed in the dawn sector in the region corresponding to the closed magnetosphere. The generation of these pulsations is likely to be associated with the resonance of the geomagnetic field lines. Thus, it is shown that the Pc5 pulsations observed on the ground during the magnetic storm have a different origin and a different planetary distribution.     

Correlation between the near-Earth solar wind parameters and the source surface magnetic field

The solar magnetic field B _s at the Earth’s projection onto the solar-wind source surface has been calculated for each day over a long time interval (1976–2004). These data have been compared with the daily mean solar wind (SW) velocities and various components of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near the Earth. The statistical analysis has revealed a rather close relationship between the solar-wind parameters near the Sun and near the Earth in the periods without significant sporadic solar and interplanetary disturbances. Empirical numerical models have been proposed for calculating the solar-wind velocity, IMF intensity, and IMF longitudinal and B _z components from the solar magnetic data. In all these models, the B _s value plays the main role. It is shown that, under quiet or weakly disturbed conditions, the variations in the geomagnetic activity index Ap can be forecasted for 3–5 days ahead on the basis of solar magnetic observations. Such a forecast proves to be more reliable than the forecasts based on the traditional methods.     

Understanding CMEs and their source regions

CMEs are an important aspect of coronal and interplanetary dynamics. They can eject large amounts of mass and magnetic fields into the heliosphere which can drive large geomagnetic storms and interplanetary shocks, a key source of solar energetic particles. However, our knowledge of the origins and early development of CMEs at the Sun is limited. CMEs are most frequently associated with erupting prominences and long-enduring X-ray arcades, but sometimes with weak or no observed surface activity. I review some of the well-determined coronal properties of CMEs and what we know about their source regions, including recent studies using Yohkoh, SOHO and radio data. One exciting, new type of observation is of halo-like CMEs which suggest the launch of a geoeffective disturbance toward Earth. Besides their utility for forecasting the arrival at Earth of magnetic clouds and geomagnetic storms, halo CMEs are important for understanding the development and internal structure of CMEs since we can view their source regions near Sun center and can measure their in-situ characteristics along their central axes.     

Interplanetary origins of November 2004 superstorms

The sun was very active in the declining phase of solar cycle 23. Large sunspot active regions gave origin to multiple flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) activity in the interval 2003–2005. On November 2004, the active region AR 10696 was the origin of dozens of flares and many CMEs. Some events of this solar activity region resulted in two large geomagnetic storms, or superstorms (Dst??250 nT) on November 8, peak Dst=?373 nT, and on November 10, peak Dst=?289 nT. It is the purpose of this article to identify the interplanetary origins of these two superstorms. The southward-directed interplanetary magnetic fields (IMF Bs) that caused the two superstorms were related to a magnetic cloud (MC) field for the first superstorm, and a combination of sheath and MC fields for the second superstorm. However, this simple, classic picture is complicated by the presence of multiple shocks and waves. Six fast-forward shocks and, at least, two reverse waves were observed in the period of the two superstorms. A detailed analysis of these complex interplanetary features is performed in this work.     

Determination of magnetic cloud parameters and prediction of magnetic storm intensity

A program for identifying magnetic clouds in patrol satellite data, which recorded the interplanetary medium parameters near the magnetosphere, has been developed based on the cloud model in the form of a force-free cylindrical flux tube. The program makes it possible to also determine the entire magnetic field distribution in a cloud that approaches the Earth, using the initial satellite measurements. For this purpose, a model cloud (which has the maximal correlation coefficient with an analyzed cloud with respect to three magnetic field vector components and minimal rms deviations of the magnetic field and velocity components) is selected from the preliminarily created database including 2 million model clouds. The obtained magnetic field distribution in a cloud will make it possible to predict the intensity of a magnetic storm that this cloud will cause.     

Interplanetary fast forward shocks and their geomagnetic effects: CAWSES events

The seven CAWSES interplanetary fast forward shocks and their geomagnetic effects during 2004–2005 have been analyzed. It is found that the arrival time of the shocks at Earth can be estimated within an accuracy of ～5 min. Furthermore, AL decreases are found to occur within 10 min of shock impingement on the magnetopause. It was also determined that there is a direct correlation between the interplanetary magnetic field southward directed (IMF B_s) prior to shock arrival and substorms triggered by the shocks. If the IMF is northward prior to shock arrival, the geomagnetic activity is present but is low. One interpretation of this result is that the preconditioning energy stored in the magnetotail leaks away rapidly. A correlation between substorm peak AL and shock strength (Mach number) has also been noted, which could imply that shock strength is important for the amount of energy released into the magnetosphere/ionosphere.     

Shocks and sheaths in the heliosphere

This paper compares three kinds of shocks and sheaths; the bow shock and magnetosheaths of planets, interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) shocks and sheaths, and the termination shock and heliosheath. We compare the energy balance across these shocks, fluctuations in the sheaths, asymmetries, and shock evolution. All three shocks and sheaths display asymmetries imposed by outside magnetic fields. Energy balance is often achieved through reflection of ions of the shocks, but in some cases no reflected ions are observed. The shocks may have similar small scale fluctuations which drive density changes in the sheaths.     

Geomagnetic Field Disturbances Caused by Heliospheric Current Sheet Crossings

The heliospheric current sheet (HCS) is modified by the solar activity. HCS is highly inclined during solar maximum and almost confined with the solar equatorial plane during solar minimum. Close to the HCS solar wind parameters as proton temperature, flow speed, proton density, etc. differ compared to the region far from the HCS. The Earth’s magnetic dipole field crosses HCS several times each month. Considering interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME) and high speed solar wind streams (HSS) free periods an investigation of the HCS influence on the geomagnetic field disturbances is presented. The results show a drop of the Dst index and a rise of the AE index at the time of the HCS crossings and also that the behavior of these indices does not depend on the magnetic polarity.     

高能质子能谱特征在日冕物质抛射影响预报中的应用

日冕物质抛射(CME)的规模和对地有效性是地磁暴预报中重点关注的特征.本项研究的目的是通过对行星际高能质子通量和能谱的特征与演化规律的分析,得到CME对粒子的加速能力,评估CME可能对地磁场造成的影响.在工作中,统计分析了ACE/EPAM的1998-2010年的质子数据,对质子能谱进行了拟合,得到了能谱指数,并对能谱指数及其变化特征所对应的CME和地磁暴进行了相关统计.通过研究发现:(1)能谱指数随着太阳活动水平而变化,高年最大,达到-2.6,而且涨落幅度也达到±0.4,而在太阳活动低年则稳定在-3.0左右;(2)CME对粒子的加速对应着能谱指数的升高,幅度达到20%时,CME引起地磁暴的可能性较大;(3)冕洞高速流到达地球时,高能质子通量也会升高,但能谱指数同时会有下降;(4)以2004年全年的能谱指数为例,对能谱指数在地磁暴预报中的应用进行了评估,结论认为,能谱指数的升高是CME引发地磁暴的必要条件,可以作为地磁暴预报的参数使用.     

结合实地观测和STEREO/HI图像观测分析2010年CME事件

本文使用了基于单颗STEREO卫星日球层成像仪(Heliospheric Imager,HI)图像的固定Φ角拟合法(Fixed-Φ,FΦ)和调和均值拟合法(Harmonic-mean,HM),结合STEREO和ACE卫星的太阳风实地观测数据,深入分析了2010年15个日冕物质抛射(CME)事件,对比讨论了这两种方法在提取CME参数如太阳赤道平面的主传播方向、传播速度的效果,其中FΦ拟合法假设CME是固定方向传播的小质点,HM拟合法假设CME为具有球形前沿的通量绳结构,结果发现:(1)使用HM拟合法分析得到的CME主传播方向与太阳-实地观测点的夹角平均值是9.5°,小于FΦ拟合法的19.7°;(2)HM拟合法分析的预计到达时间与实测ICME起始时间的平均误差和最大误差分别为0.282天和0.805天,明显小于FΦ拟合法.本文也使用结合STEREO两颗卫星HI图像的直接三角法(Direct-triangulation,DT)和球面切线法(Tangent-to-a-sphere,TS),深入分析了5个朝向地球的CME事件,其中,DT和FΦ拟合法的假设相同,TS和HM拟合法的假设相同,结果发现:(1)这两种方法分析的CME主传播方向与日地连线的夹角最大值分别是13.2°和21.1°,明显小于单颗卫星观测的20.7°和27.5°;(2)其中4个CME事件使用方法得到的线性拟合加速度不超过0.4 m·s^-2,这说明CME在主传播方向上的速度变化在1AU内不超过100 km·s^-1;(3)使用TS方法得到的预计到达时间与实测ICME起始时间的绝对误差最小,平均值和最大值分别是2.3 h和5.8 h.可见,利用HI图像提取CME传播参数时,加入CME前沿结构假设和结合多角度观测都能够有效地减小拟合误差.     

Space Weather: Physics,Effects and Predictability

The time varying conditions in the near-Earth space environment that may affect space-borne or ground-based technological systems and may endanger human health or life are referred to as space weather. Space weather effects arise from the dynamic and highly variable conditions in the geospace environment starting from explosive events on the Sun (solar flares), Coronal Mass Ejections near the Sun in the interplanetary medium, and various energetic effects in the magnetosphere–ionosphere–atmosphere system. As the utilization of space has become part of our everyday lives, and as our lives have become increasingly dependent on technological systems vulnerable to the space weather influences, the understanding and prediction of hazards posed by these active solar events have grown in importance. In this paper, we review the processes of the Sun–Earth interactions, the dynamic conditions within the magnetosphere, and the predictability of space weather effects on radio waves, satellites and ground-based technological systems today.     

Geomagnetic storm intensity forecast caused by magnetic clouds of solar wind

Method of short-term forecast intensity of geomagnetic storms, expected by effect Solar wind magnetic clouds in the Earth’s magnetosphere is developed. The method is based calculation of the magnetic field clouds distribution, suitable to the Earth, the initial satellite measurements therein components of the interplanetary magnetic field in the solar ecliptic coordinate system. Conclusion about the magnetic storm intensity is expected on the basis of analysis of the dynamics of the reduced magnetic field Bz component clouds and established communication intensity of geomagnetic storms on Dst-index values and Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field vector.