基于GRACE卫星重力数据估计格陵兰岛冰盖质量变化

重力场恢复与气候试验（GRACE）卫星为高分辨率地监测全球冰川质量变化提供了一种新的手段。本文利用2003年1月至2014年12月Level-2 RL05的GRACE产品，进行去相关误差滤波、高斯滤波和海洋-陆地信号泄漏改正后，得到了格陵兰岛冰盖质量变化的时间序列，分析了格陵兰岛冰盖质量变化的长期趋势项，并与ICESat的结果进行了比较验证。研究表明，在2003年1月至2014年12月之间，格陵兰岛冰盖质量减小速率约为（-260±43）Gt/a，对全球海平面的贡献约为（0.72±0.12）mm/a，对同时期海平面上升的贡献占25.8%，并且格陵兰岛冰盖消融有着很强的区域差异性，冰盖消融的区域主要集中在边缘区域，中部内陆地区的冰盖质量则有增加的趋势。并进一步和ICESat的结果进行了比较分析，ICESat的结果显示格陵兰岛冰盖质量减小速率约为（-174±43）~（-184.8±28.2）Gt/a，而GRACE的结果则为（-209.4±26.3）Gt/a，有着较好的一致性，并且区域分布特征也符合较好。     

2003-2008年全球海平面变化评估

导致全球海平面短时间尺度变化主要有海水密度和海水质量这两方面的变化因素。通过重力校正和气候试验（GRACE）对地球重力场进行观测，并联合卫星测高SA、ARGO系统的观测结果可推知：自2003年以来，海平面的上升主要是因为海水质量的增加。     

联合卫星测高和卫星重力数据研究热容海平面变化

首先用卫星测高资料计算了1993～2009年6月的全球平均海平面变化。用GRACE(gravity recovery andclimate experiment)时变重力场系数反演了2003～2009年6月全球平均海水质量变化。联合GRACE和卫星测高资料计算了2003～2009年6月的热容海平面变化,该变化呈上升趋势。用日本气象局Ishii等提供的海温数据计算了1993～2006年的海水引起的平均热膨胀海平面变化,1993～2003年间,全球海洋热膨胀引起的热容海平面呈上升趋势,约占同期平均海平面变化的一半。利用ARGO温盐数据计算了2004～2009年6月平均热容海平面变化,也呈上升态势,只是变化速率有所减慢。     

1993—2001年全球海面高度变化特征

应用TOPEX／POSEIDON（T／P）卫星高度计测高资料，对全球海洋的海面变化特征进行了分析，结果表明，1993年1月－2001年6月期间，全球海平面呈现上升的态势；全球平均海平面高度的平均上升速率约为1．2mm/a；海温的变化是引起海平面变化的重要原因，便其对海平面抬升的贡献不到50％。海平面的变化具有很强的地域特征。海平面变化的空间分布特征受风应力异常特别是纬向风应力异常的空间分布影响较大。     

中国近海近50年海平面变化速度及预测

由验潮资料求得的平均海平面变化包括绝对海平面变化和地壳垂直变化两部分。采用沿海符合均衡原理布设的验潮站资料 ,经各站取平均后 ,基本消除了地壳垂直变化对平均海平面变化的影响。得出中国近海 5 0年平均的海平面变化速度为 (1 3± 0 2 5 )mm/a,最近时间段海平面变化速度已上升为 3 5 9mm/a。同时给出了海平面变化速度最佳拟合的预测方法     

利用GRACE时变重力场反演大尺度全球海底压强变化

海底压强变化对研究海洋环流、全球能量平衡、陆海水循环、气候模型等有着重要意义。对利用GRACE时变重力场数据反演全球海底压强变化的方法进行了研究,并采用GRACE卫星Level-2数据的GSM和GAD数据反演了2010年全球海底压强变化,反演结果表明:利用GRACE时变重力场数据能够反演出大尺度的全球海底压强变化,海底压强变化呈现明显的季节性变化,在沿海岸线区域受陆地水文反演信号泄露影响海底压强变化较大。     

中国沿海近31年冬季海平面变化特征

利用29个海洋观测站的31年（1980－2010年）水文气象观测资料,分析了中国沿海近31年冬季海平面的时空分布特征与长期变化趋势。结果表明：①中国沿海冬季海平面近31年呈现明显的上升趋势,平均上升速率为3.1 mm/a,高于全年的上升速率,渤海、黄海、东海和南海沿海冬季海平面变化呈现明显的区域特征;②中国沿海冬季海平面存在显著的年际和年代际变化,其主要显著变化周期有准2 a,4～7 a,9 a左右及18.6 a。由于受西太平洋暖池和黑潮与我国近海之间的水体交换影响,东中国海4～7 a的周期明显,其振幅最高,并且其周期性震荡的高位时期与赤道西太平洋暖池区的厄尔尼诺发生期间相吻合;③以浙江坎门（121°17′E , 28°05′N）为界,中国沿海冬季海平面还呈现出南北变化反相的跷跷板特征,该现象反映了中国沿海冬季海平面的气候性特征。受季风、海流、气压以及降水等因素的影响,冬季海平面的变化区域特征明显;④近31年, 中国沿海冬季气温、海温与海平面均呈显著上升趋势,上升幅度分别为1.8 ℃、1.4 ℃和135 mm,高于全年上升幅度。     

南海周边相对海平面变化特征及2004年苏门答腊地震影响分析

利用南海周边1989-2014年的潮汐资料和GPS长期观测资料,分析了南海周边相对海平面变化特征,以及2004年苏门答腊地震对该区域相对海平面变化的影响。研究结果表明,南海周边的相对海平面变化以上升为主,平均上升速率（4.53±0.20） mm/a,高于全球平均速率,且2004年后上升趋势加剧;南海周边相对海平面呈现6类较典型的变化特征,并存在与板块构造相对应的分区聚集现象,形成了中国东南和越南沿海、马来半岛、加里曼丹岛北部、菲律宾群岛等4个变化特征区。受2004年苏门答腊大地震的影响,马来半岛、南沙和西沙海域的地壳形变由上升趋势转为下沉,加剧了相对海平面的上升;中国东南沿海和菲律宾群岛受地震影响较小;越南沿海和加里曼丹岛北部区域的地震影响还有待进一步研究。     

南海輓近海平面变化与构造升降初步研究

揭示南海輓近海平面变动和古岸线诸多遗迹,探讨晚更新世以来海平面变化一般规律,初步分析南海周缘中全新世和现代地壳构造升降速率,得出本区海平面上升率适中参考值为0.10—2.0mm/a,初步估算未来50年内海平面变化趋势在1.26—4.0mm/a之间;而构造升降受块断差异运动控制,一般规律是南海北部沿岸自东向西递减,由福建南部1.15mm/a至海南岛南部0.54mm/a。近代地壳形变资料亦证实这种变化规律。     

1993—2006年北太平洋海平面变化特征及影响因素

利用1993—2006年间卫星高度计资料分析北太平洋海平面的变化特征,结合同期上层海洋温度、盐度数据以及风应力资料分析比容海平面和风对海平面变化的影响。结果显示:1993—2006年北太平洋上升海域主要位于洋盆西侧中低纬度海域,高纬度海域及大洋东侧的中低纬度海域海平面呈下降趋势;同期比容海平面线性速率的空间分布与海平面相似。整个北太平洋海平面高度平均线性上升速率为2.9 mm/a,比容海平面平均线性上升速率为1.4 mm/a。比容变化对海平面上升趋势的贡献为47.5%。北太平洋海平面的季节变化占绝对优势,主要为1和0.5 a周期,对海平面距平做EOF,其第一和第三模态为季节模态。海平面季节变化的影响因素中,比容变化与海平面有相同的季节变化周期,比容海平面距平EOF的第一和第三模态为季节模态,分别与海平面的第一和第三模态空间分布相似,时间系数相关性好,比容变化在海平面季节特征中起到最主要作用。另一个因素风场主要通过Ekman抽吸和Rossby波的西传影响海平面的分布,其季节特征对海平面的季节特征有影响。北太平洋海平面也具有28个月的年际变化周期,海平面距平EOF第二和第四模态表现出年际变化特征。比容变化也具有28个月的显著周期,其距平场的第二和第四模态为年际变化模态,其中第二模态与海平面第二模态空间分布相似,时间系数相关性很好,海平面年际变化中比容起到重要影响。     

Assessing the global averaged sea-level budget from 2003 to 2010

A global mass balance （Greenland and Antarctica ice sheet mass loss, terrestrial water storage） and differ- ent sea-level components （observed sea-level from satellite altimetry, steric sea-level from Ishii data, and ocean mass from gravity recovery and climate experiment, GRACE） are estimated, in terms of seasonal and interannual variabilities from 2003 to 2010. The results show that a detailed analysis of the GRACE time series over the time period 2003-2010 unambiguously reveals an increase in mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet and Antarctica ice sheet. The mass loss of both ice sheets accelerated at a rate of （392.8±70.0） Gt/a during 2003-2010, which contributed （1.09±0.19） mm/a to the global mean sea-level during this time. The net terrestrial water storage （TWS） trend was negative over the 8 a time span, which gave a small positive contribution of （0.25±0.12） mm/a. The interannual variability of the global mean sea-level was at least part- ly caused by year-to-year variability of land water storage. Estimating GRACE-based ice sheet mass balance and terrestrial water storage by using published estimates for melting glaciers, the results further show that the ocean mass increase since 2003 has resulted half from an enhanced contribution of the polar ice sheets, and half from the combined ice sheet and terrestrial water storage loss. Taking also into account the melt- ing of mountain glaciers （0.41 mm/a） and the small GRACE-based contribution from continental waters （0.25 mm/a）, a total ocean mass contribution of （1.75±0.57） mm/a from 2003 to 2010 is found. Such a value represented 75% of the altimetry-based rate of sea-level rise over that period. The contributions to steric sea-level （i.e., ocean thermal expansion plus salinity effects） are estimated from： （1） the difference between altimetry-based sea-level and ocean mass change and （2） the latest Ishii data. The inferred steric sea-level rate from （1） （1.41 mm/a from 2003 to 2010） did not agree well with the Ishii-based value also estimated here （0.44 mm/a from 2003 to 2010）, but phase. The cause for such a discrepancy is not yet known but may be related to inadequate sampling of in situ ocean temperature and salinity measurements.     

2002-2014年间基于海平面变化的海洋增暖趋势研究

21世纪以来全球变暖进入停滞时期,研究表明,大量热量进入海洋深层是导致全球平均表面温度暂缓上升的主要原因。本文估计和研究了2002.4-2014.12间由热膨胀导致的海平面变化趋势,以此来探测海洋热含量的变化情况。研究使用GRACE重力卫星CSR RL05数据计算了全球海洋的水质量变化,并结合海平面异常数据,计算了由热量变化导致的海平面变化（Net SLA）。将Net SLA与Ishii温度数据计算的海洋热含量进行相关性分析后表明,Net SLA与海洋热含量存在高度相关性,相关系数最大值达0.95。考虑到海洋观测只能表现海洋上层2000m的热含量变化,而除去水质量变化的海平面变化则反映了整层海洋的热含量变化,是估计海洋增暖趋势快慢的有利工具。经计算得出,2002至2014年间南太平洋和南印度洋存在加速增暖趋势,而近年来南半球环状模的增强是导致其增暖的主要原因。     

Sea level variations in the regional seas around Taiwan

The patterns and trends of sea level rise in the regional seas around Taiwan have been investigated through the analyses of long-term tide-gauge and satellite altimetry data. Series of tide-gauge data extending over 50 years reveal decadal and interannual variations and spatially-inhomogeneous patterns of generally rising sea level. The East Asia tide-gauge stations around Taiwan show an average trend of +2.4 mm/yr from 1961–2003, which is larger than the reported global rate of +1.8 mm/yr for the same period. These stations also show significantly larger sea level rise rates (+5.7 mm/yr) than global values (+3.1 mm/yr) during the period from 1993–2003. Consistent with the coastal tide-gauge records, satellite altimetry data show similar increasing rates (+5.3 mm/yr) around Taiwan during the same period. Comparisons with temperature anomalies in the upper ocean suggest that thermal expansion and heat advection in the upper layer contribute significantly to the long-term sea level variations in this area with correlations >0.9 for observations after 1992. Thermosteric sea level variations may also explain the interannual and decadal variations of the observed sea level rises around Taiwan. Our analysis also indicates that the altimetry data are only part of a long-term, larger-scale signal. Finally, we have found that a non-linear smoother, LOESS, is more suitable for extracting long-term trends in sea level than the traditional linear regression approach.     

中国东海海平面长期变化与趋势研究

From the analyses of the satellite altimeter Maps of Sea Level Anomaly(MSLA) data, tidal gauge sea level data and historical sea level data, this paper investigates the long-term sea level variability in the East China Sea(ECS).Based on the correlation analysis, we calculate the correlation coefficient between tidal gauge and the closest MSLA grid point, then generate the map of correlation coefficient of the entire ECS. The results show that the satellite altimeter MSLA data is effective to observe coastal sea level variability. An important finding is that from map of correlation coefficient we can identify the Kuroshio. The existence of Kuroshio decreases the correlation between coastal and the Pacific sea level. Kurishio likes a barrier or a wall, which blocks the effect of the Pacific and the global change. Moreover, coastal sea level in the ECS is mainly associated with local systems rather than global change. In order to calculate the long-term sea level variability trend, the empirical mode decomposition(EMD) method is applied to derive the trend on each MSLA grid point in the entire ECS. According to the 2-D distribution of the trend and rising rate, the sea level on the right side of the axis of Kuroshio rise faster than in its left side. This result supports the barrier effect of Kuroshio in the ECS. For the entire ECS, the average sea level rose 45.0 mm between 1993 and 2010, with a rising rate of(2.5±0.4) mm/a which is slower than global average.The relatively slower sea level rising rate further proves that sea level rise in the ECS has less response to global change due to its own local system effect.     

Sea level fluctuations in central California at subtidal to decadal and longer time scales with implications for San Francisco Bay, California

Sea level elevations from near the mouth of San Francisco Bay are used to describe the low-frequency variability of forcing of the coastal ocean on the Bay at a variety of temporal scales. About 90% of subtidal fluctuations in sea level in San Francisco Bay are driven by the sea level variations in the coastal ocean that propagate into the Bay at the estuary mouth. We use the 100-year sea level record available at San Francisco to document a 1.9 mm/yr mean sea level rise, and to determine fluctuations related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other climatic events. At time scales greater than 1 year, ENSO dominates the sea level signal and can result in fluctuations in sea level of 10–15 cm. Alongshore wind stress data from central California are also analyzed to determine the impact of changes in coastal elevation at the mouth of San Francisco Bay within the synoptic wind band of 2–30 days. At least 40% of the subtidal fluctuations in sea level of the Bay are tied to the large-scale regional wind field affecting sea level variations in the coastal ocean, with little local, direct wind forcing of the Bay itself. The majority of the subtidal sea level fluctuations within the Bay that are not related to the coastal ocean sea level signal are forced by an east–west sea level gradient resulting from tidally induced variations in sea level at specific beat frequencies that are enhanced in the northern reach of the Bay. River discharge into the Bay through the Sacramento and San Joaquin River Delta also contributes to the east–west gradient, but to a lesser degree.     

Interannual Sea Level Variations in the South China Sea Over 1950–2009

Spatial patterns of interannual sea level variations in the South China Sea (SCS) are investigated by analyzing an EOF-based 2-dimensional past sea level reconstruction from 1950 to 2009 and satellite altimetry data from 1993 to 2009. Long-term tide gauge records from 14 selected stations in this region are also used to assess the quality of reconstructed sea levels and determine the rate of sea level along the coastal area. We found that the rising rate of sea levels derived from merged satellite altimetry data during 1993–2009 and past sea level reconstruction over 1950–2009 is about 3.9 ± 0.6 mm/yr and 1.7 ± 0.1 mm/yr, respectively. For the longer period, this rate is not significantly different from the global mean rate (of 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr). The interannual mean sea level of the SCS region appears highly correlated with Niño 4 indices (a proxy of El Niño-Southern Oscillation/ENSO), suggesting that the interannual sea level variations over the SCS region is driven by ENSO events. Interpolation of the reconstructed sea level data for 1950–2009 at sites where tide gauge records are of poor quality (either short or gapped) show that sea level along the Chinese coastal area is rising faster than the global mean rate of 1.8 mm/yr. At some sites, the rate is up to 2.5 mm/yr.     

印度洋海底压强的季节和长期变化

利用2003—2015年的重力恢复和气候实验(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE)卫星观测数据, 揭示了印度洋海底压强的变化特征, 并探讨了其变化机制。结果表明, 印度洋海底压强具有显著的季节变化特征, 北半球冬季在40°S以北(南), 海底压强呈负(正)异常, 夏季分布与冬季相反。印度洋区域的海底压强空间分布与Ekman输送空间分布有较好的对应关系。正压涡度方程诊断结果表明, 利用风场重构的海底压强能够较好地解释印度洋海底压强的季节和长期变化。此外, 海平面变化收支分析表明, 海底压强的变化在高纬度区域主导了海平面变化。     

南海海平面长期变化及其趋势研究

On the basis of the satellite maps of sea level anomaly(MSLA) data and in situ tidal gauge sea level data,correlation analysis and empirical mode decomposition(EMD) are employed to investigate the applicability of MSLA data,sea level correlation,long-term sea level variability(SLV) trend,sea level rise(SLR) rate and its geographic distribution in the South China Sea(SCS).The findings show that for Dongfang Station,Haikou Station,Shanwei Station and Zhapo Station,the minimum correlation coefficient between the closest MSLA grid point and tidal station is 0.61.This suggests that the satellite altimeter MSLA data are effective to observe the coastal SLV in the SCS.On the monthly scale,coastal SLV in the western and northern part of SCS are highly associated with coastal currents.On the seasonal scale,SLV of the coastal area in the western part of the SCS is still strongly influenced by the coastal current system in summer and winter.The Pacific change can affect the SCS mainly in winter rather than summer and the affected area mostly concentrated in the northeastern and eastern parts of the SCS.Overall,the average SLR in the SCS is 90.8 mm with a rising rate of(5.0±0.4) mm/a during1993–2010.The SLR rate from the southern Luzon Strait through the Huangyan Seamount area to the Xisha Islands area is higher than that of other areas of the SCS.