A New Model for the Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Resources

A critical examination of Hubbert’s model proves that it does not account for several factors that have significantly influenced the production of petroleum and other fossil fuels. The effect of these factors comes into the price of the fossil fuels, and the latter has a significant influence on the demand and rate of production of energy resources as well as on the long-term rate of production growth at both the regional and global levels. Based on several observations of historical production data, a simple mathematical model is constructed and presented in this paper for the lifetime of a fossil fuel resource. The recent data of global petroleum and natural gas production show that a very important period in the life of energy resources is a period when the demand of these resources increases almost linearly. The linear part of the production curve makes the entire lifetime production of the resource asymmetric. Information on the total available quantity of a resource at any time and of the average slope during this linear period yields an estimate of the timescale, T ₂, when peak production is reached and depletion follows. The total available quantity of the energy resource is laden with significant uncertainty, which propagates in the estimates of the timescale of the peak production in any resource model. The time asymmetry of the current model leads to a delay of the timescale, when the onset of the resource production commences (e.g., peak oil). However, the rate of the resource production decline is significantly higher than that predicted by other models that use a symmetrical curve-fitting method.     

Hubbert’s Legacy: A Review of Curve-Fitting Methods to Estimate Ultimately Recoverable Resources

A growing number of commentators are forecasting a near-term peak and subsequent terminal decline in the global production of conventional oil as a result of the physical depletion of the resource. These forecasts frequently rely on the estimates of the ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of different regions, obtained through the use of curve-fitting to historical trends in discovery or production. Curve-fitting was originally pioneered by M. King Hubbert in the context of an earlier debate about the future of the US oil production. However, despite their widespread use, curve-fitting techniques remain the subject of considerable controversy. This article classifies and explains these techniques and identifies both their relative suitability in different circumstances and the level of confidence that may be placed in their results. This article discusses the interpretation and importance of the URR estimates, indicates the relationship between curve fitting and other methods of estimating the URR and classifies the techniques into three groups. It then investigates each group in turn, indicating their historical origins, contemporary application and major strengths and weaknesses. The article then uses illustrative data from a number of oil-producing regions to assess whether these techniques produce consistent results as well as highlight some of the statistical issues raised and suggesting how they may be addressed. The article concludes that the applicability of curve-fitting techniques is more limited than adherents claim and that the confidence bounds on the results are wider than usually assumed.     

Peak Oil: Testing Hubbert’s Curve via Theoretical Modeling

A theoretical model of conventional oil production has been developed. The model does not assume Hubbert’s bell curve, an asymmetric bell curve, or a reserve-to-production ratio method is correct, and does not use oil production data as an input. The theoretical model is in close agreement with actual production data until the 1979 oil crisis, with an R ² value of greater than 0.98. Whilst the theoretical model indicates that an ideal production curve is slightly asymmetric, which differs from Hubbert’s curve, the ideal model compares well with the Hubbert model, with R ² values in excess of 0.95. Amending the theoretical model to take into account the 1979 oil crisis, and assuming the ultimately recoverable resources are in the range of 2–3 trillion barrels, the amended model predicts conventional oil production to peak between 2010 and 2025. The amended model, for the case when the ultimately recoverable resources is 2.2 trillion barrels, indicates that oil production peaks in 2013.     

An assessment of oil supply and its implications for future prices

This paper examines three issues related to both the U.S. and world oil supply: (1) the nature of the long-term, postpeak production profile for the U.S. and, by inference, other regions (the Hubbert curve is used as a “strawman” model); (2) implications on U.S. energy security of using a modified Hubbert-type conceptual model of prepeak production, testing the adequacy of Latin America to be the primary source of U.S. oil imports; and (3) the cyclic behavior of oil prices. it shows that U.S. production will exhibit a more attenuated decline than that simulated by the Hubbert curve and not decline to zero. it asserts that U.S. production is better predicted by past reserves than past production, but that this argument does not apply to nations that keep a much larger proportion of reserves in the ground. Such nations could considerably expand production without any growth in reserves. The paper concedes that the potential total production for these nations could be examined with a Hubbert curve model linked to reserves, but with great uncertainty. Such an uncertain optimistic forecast predicts that the cumulative production of Latin America could far exceed that of the United States. Nevertheless, a statistical model of oil prices since 1870 implies that real wellhead oil prices in the United States are on a long-term upward path, underlying a much more “noisy” cyclical pattern estimated to include 22- and 27-year cycles. The statistical model predicts a severe oil shock within a few years (of 1998) but also predicts that through 2030, real oil prices will not reach 1981 levels again. The paper examines U.S. and world trends in seismic exploration, drilling locations and depths, drilling costs, oil/gas reserves, oil/gas use rates, and oil demand. After taking these factors into consideration, it concludes that the statistical model of oil prices cannot be disputed, despite its lack of basis in economic theory.     

我国矿产资源可持续利用对策

矿产资源是不可再生的稀缺资源。本文综述了我国33种主要矿产的供需现状，通过对主要矿产90年代初静态保证年限与2010年预测需求保证年限计算结果对比分析，认为未来30—50年内我国矿产资源中对经济建设起重要作用的部分大宗矿产面临的短缺问题较为严重，必须尽快寻找和采取有效的可持续利用对策，并分类提出和论述了我国能源矿产、金属矿产及非金属矿产实现可持续利用应采取的基本对策。     

Global Resource Assessments of Primary Metals: An Optimistic Reality Check

The mining of primary metals is critical for a range of modern infrastructure and goods and the continuing growth in global population and consumption means that these primary metals are expected to remain in high demand. However, metallic deposits are, in essence, finite and non-renewable—leading to some concern that we may run out of a given metal in the future. Here, we address this concern by presenting a brief review of the reporting of mineral resource estimates, compiling detailed datasets for national and global trends in mineral resources for numerous metals, and present detailed case studies of major mining projects or fields. The evidence clearly shows strong growth in known mineral resources and cumulative production over time rather than any evidence of gradual resource depletion. In addition, the key factors that already govern existing mining projects and mineral resources are certainly social, environmental and economic in nature rather than geological or related to physical resource depletion. Overall, there is great room for optimism in terms of humankind’s ability to supply future generations with the metals they will require.     

Analysis of Ultimate Fossil Fuel Reserves and Associated CO2 Emissions in IPCC Scenarios

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) commissioned a special report on emissions scenarios in 2000 so as to forecast global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions for a variety of assumptions. These scenarios have been subjected to a multitude of criticisms, alleging overoptimistic predictions for fossil fuel production rates. Intrigued by this controversy, this paper employs the Hubbert linearization technique to solve for ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of fossil fuels for six significant IPCC scenarios. The predictions are substantially higher than geological URR estimates found in recent literature, ranging from 19 to over 200% higher for oil, 16 to over 500% for coal, and 171 to over 500% for natural gas, depending on the scenario. Subsequently, the atmospheric CO₂ concentrations resulting from full consumption of URR related to IPCC data, as well as literature-based URR, are determined with a simple model. The former concentrations range from 640 to over 1,300 ppm. In comparison, the peak-based URR in the literature yield 463–577 ppm. All of these figures are higher than the 450 ppm ‘threshold’ which some see as critical. Therefore, despite peaking fossil fuels, concern over climate change is still warranted. At the same time, the fossil fuel production inputs to the IPCC’s CO₂ emissions models appear predominantly overoptimistic, which calls into question the accuracy of the climate change assessment outputs. Moving forward, the IPCC is encouraged to re-assess its fossil fuel forecasts, incorporating more reasonable scenarios for peak production of fossil fuels.     

The “Three-Component” Digital Prospecting Method: A New Approach for Mineral Resource Quantitative Prediction and Assessment

Stimulated by the exceeding progress of information technology, the development of mineral exploration has entered a new period of digitization and quantification. The “three components” approach of mineral prediction is suggested as a new approach to the “digital mineral prospecting,” which is based on the geoanomaly analysis, directed by the research on the diversity of mineralization and on the spectrum of mineral deposits. Close combination of these three aspects of quantitative study makes a new starting point to the digital prospecting. In this paper, the basic theories of the “three components” approach of mineral prediction are discussed. In addition, based on the new achievements in the studies on the prediction and assessment of solid minerals and gas–oil resources, we have centered our discussion on the thought of analysis of geoanomaly evolution and on the “5P” method for approaching the target area in the “three components” approach of mineral prediction.     

Economic Filters Applied to Quantitative Mineral Resource Simulations

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a technique that allows mineral resource experts to apply economic filters to estimates of undiscovered mineral resources. This technique builds on previous work that developed quantitative methods for mineral resource assessments. A Monte-Carlo calculation uses mineral deposit models to estimate commodity grades and tonnages of undiscovered deposits. The results then are analyzed using simple estimates of capital expenditures and daily operating costs for a mine and associated mill. The daily operating costs and the value of the ore are used to calculate the net present value of the deposit, which is compared to the capital expenditures to determine whether the deposit is economic. Repetition of these calculations for many deposits produces a table that can be interpreted in terms of the probability of there being deposits that have anet present value exceeding some specified amount. Sample calculations indicate that applying economic filters to simulated mineral resources might change the perception of the results compared to presenting the calculations in terms of the expected mean gross-in-place value of the minerals.     

Oil and gas resource assessment: The linkage between geological analysis and discovery process model results

Two widely-used techniques to estimate the volume of remaining oil and gas resources are discovery process modeling and geologic assessment. Both were used in a recent national assessment of oil and gas resources of the United States. Parallel estimates were obtained for 27 provinces. Geological-based estimates can typically see into areas not available to discovery process models (that is areas with little or no exploration history) and thus, on average, yield higher estimates. However, a linear relation does exist between the mean estimates obtained from these two methods. In addition, other variables were found in a multiple regression model that explained much of the difference. Thus, it is possible to perform discovery process modeling and adjust the estimates to yield results that might be expected from geological-based assessments.     

Global Trends in Mineral Commodities for Advanced Technologies

The U.S. Geological Survey National Minerals Information Center (NMIC) is the U.S. Government agency tasked with the collection, analysis, and dissemination of information on the production, consumption, import, export, and other measures of the flows of non-fuel mineral commodities of importance to the U.S. economy and national security. The NMIC and its agency predecessors have maintained a database of this information, collected and published annually, dating back to the beginning of the twentieth century. Time series analysis of annual information from the NMIC provides the opportunity to identify trends in the supply chains of the minerals and metals which are increasingly in demand for advanced technologies. The identification of trends in data for net import reliance, country concentration of production, global demand, price volatility, and other measures, when combined with world governance indicators, can be used to focus attention on individual mineral commodities where supply chain restrictions may develop. Specific examples for U.S. net import reliance, global tantalum primary mining, and mineral criticality screening are presented to illustrate the utility of time series analysis of trends in mineral commodity supply and demand, the types of data required, and the limitations of currently available information.     

Predicting the Peak in World Oil Production

The US Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently predicted that world oil production could continue to increase for more than three decades, based on the recent US Geological Survey (USGS) evaluation of world oil resources and a simple, transparent model. However, it can be shown that this model is not consistent with actual oil production records in many different regions, particularly that of the US, from which it was derived. A more careful application of the EIA model, using the same resource estimates, indicates that at best non-OPEC oil production can increase for less than two decades, and should begin to decline at the latest sometime between 2015 and 2020. OPEC at this point will completely control the world oil market and will need to meet increased demand as well as compensate for declining production of non-OPEC producers. OPEC could control the market even sooner than this, given its larger share of proven oil reserves, probable difficulties in transforming non-OPEC undiscovered reserves into proven reserves, and the converging interests of all oil producers as reserves are depleted. This has significant implications for the world economy and for US national security.     

BUILDING A COLONIAL RESOURCE MONOPOLY: THE EXPANSION OF SULPHUR MINING IN NEW SPAIN, 1600–1820*

The discovery, extraction, and monopolistic control of key natural resources was a priority of New Spain's colonial administration. Managing the region's abundant resources, however, often proved difficult for the Spanish Crown. Human and environmental challenges impeded protoindustrial growth and development, and monopolistic control of resources often met resistance. In this article I examine these processes in the context of New Spain's little‐known monopoly on sulphur—a yellow, powdery mineral the Crown jealously guarded as its own. Sulphur was critical for gunpowder and explosives production, yet the Crown often failed to produce enough of it to meet the growing demand by its military and the silver blast‐mining industry. Colonial documents reveal administrators’ attempts to improve sulphur production through reform measures, which included advising sulphur miners on how to discover sulphur deposits and, eventually, how to develop their mines. Efforts to improve sulphur production were moderately successful, although the process was messy and inefficient.     

Innovation in Resourcing Geological Materials as Crop Nutrients

Mineral resources are fundamental to the growth and development of human society. Extraction of metal ores has risen very slightly as a proportion of all resources, while construction and industrial mineral extraction has grown much more rapidly. This reflects growth in GDP, which is much faster than population growth, in turn reflecting improved standards of living, growth in urban housing/infrastructure and growth in the consumer society. Fertilizer minerals in particular are essential resources for production of the food needed by an increasing global population. Nitrogen fertilizer manufacture requires fossil fuels—especially natural gas (methane) as a source of the hydrogen needed for the Haber–Bosch process. Phosphate fertilizers are predominantly manufactured using phosphate rock as a source of phosphoric acid, and there is scope to recover phosphorus from contaminated waters. Potassium fertilizers are produced from evaporite deposits, mainly in the global north. It is difficult for poorer countries with deeply leached soils to access and make efficient use of existing conventional products. Globally, while N and P fertilizer application replaces the nutrient removed by crops and so is in balance, twice as much K is being removed from soils as is being replaced. This leads to the need for innovation in developing novel sources of K, especially to support agricultural production in the global south. Rocks containing K silicate minerals (such as feldspar and nepheline) occur widely as potential sources of K for use in soils where these minerals weather rapidly. Observations of surface corrosion in feldspars taken from soils after 10 years exposure to soil microbial systems demonstrates rates of dissolution 4 orders of magnitude greater than determined in the laboratory. Innovation in use of these minerals depends on an understanding of the role of microbial processes in silicate mineral decomposition.     

Uncovering Influences on the Form of Oil and Gas Field Size Distributions

A detailed understanding of the processes that led to empirical oil and gas field size distributions, especially the dynamic character of the discovery process, is needed to improve the quality of forecasts of oil and gas resources. An empirical distribution results from a complex interaction of economic, technical, and social factors with geology in the form of a distribution of deposits. These factors may cause an empirical distribution to mutate nonrandomly through time. Changes in the price of oil, the cost of exploration and development, technology, and access to prospects influence the discovery process. Failure to recognize and account for them in the modeling process can result in serious bias in estimates of the number and volume of future discoveries. In addition, the broad range of some forecasts for a given region may be explained by differences in perspective of those involved in the process. Geologists who understand the basic processes and collect the data may be scientific determinists. Statisticians who model and analyze the data are trained to think in terms of random variables and stochastic processes.     

Hubbert’s petroleum production model: an evaluation and implications for World Oil Production Forecasts

Following Hubberts successful prediction of the timing of US peak oil production, Hubberts model has been used extensively to predict peak oil production elsewhere. However, forecasts of world and regional peak oil and natural gas production using Hubberts methodology usually have failed, leading to the implicit belief that such predictions always will fail and that we need not worry about finite resources. A careful examination of Hubberts approach indicates that the most important reasons for his success in the US were stable markets, the high growth rate of demand, ready availability of low cost imports, and a reasonable estimate of easily extractable reserves. This analysis also shows that his model cannot predict ultimate oil reserves and that it should be considered an econometric model. Building on Hubberts vital insight, that cheap fossil fuel reserves are knowable and finite, one can state that for world peak oil production, political constraints should be much more important than resource constraints.     

Quantitative assessment of future development of copper/silver resources in the Kootenai National Forest,Idaho/Montana: Part II—Economic and policy analysis

Quantitative assessments and analyses of mineral resources can provide important input to decisions affecting public lands. This article, a companion article to Spanski, 1992, presents an application of resource assessment and analysis tools developed by the U.S. Bureau of Mines and the U.S. Geological Survey to U.S. Forest Service lands in northwest Montana. The analytical system described here integrates mineral deposit models, mine and mill cost-estimation models, and relevant economic and policy assumptions to estimate potential mineral production and the associated direct and indirect mineral-related economic impacts that could follow development of minerals. Finally, the impacts of land-use policies are estimated using the model.     

粘土矿物对环境污染的防治作用

粘土矿物具有比表面积大、孔隙多以及极性强等特征,因而有较强的吸附性、离子交换性和膨胀性,对水体中各种类型的污染物质有良好的吸附性能,并使土壤有一定的自净作用。粘土矿物的膨胀性及低导水率使它能作为有效的密封物质,在放射性废料的埋置过程中产生理想的封闭作用。另外由于粘土矿物成本低、再生容易,所以在环境污染的防治中有广阔的应用前景。     

The concept of validity on mining claims

The Secretary of the Interior through appropriate staff can inquire into the validity of mining claims through the Act of April 25, 1812 (R.S. 453; 43 USC 2). Validity examinations are also authorized by the Act of July 23, 1955 (USC 601), for management over surface resources of mining claims located prior to the Act [Adams v. United States, 318 F2d 861 (9th Cir 1963).] Validity examinations are normally made in response to one of two circumstances: (1) to process a mineral patent application; or (2) to resolve a conflict between the mining claim and some other use of the land. Federal employees charged with the management of Federal lands have the right and authority to challenge the validity of mining claims for any reason [Estate of Melvin E. Viles, 126 IBLA 162, 164 (1993).] A validity examination of an unpatented mining claim by a Federal Government minerals examiner is to verify or refute a discovery on that claim. The mineral examiner makes a recommendation as to whether a claim is valid or invalid. If a discovery cannot be verified within the limits of the claim, the examiner will normally recommend that the government contest the claim. Concepts for making validity examinations on mining claims are here given. Many mineral deposits are unique and it is important that the mineral examiner use their initiative and adopt whatever detailed procedures may be required.     

矿产资源市场与贸易的变化格局及对中国经济的影响(英文)

自20世纪70年代初期和80年代末期以来,国际矿产品市场经历了总体衰退阶段。与此相反,由于世界经济快速增长,特别是90年代初的中国和21世纪初的印度快速发展,导致世界矿产市场和贸易中对矿产资源的需求大幅上升。过去几十年来,矿产资源的生产、消费和贸易对中国的经济增长与发展起了重要的作用。本文主要对国际矿产品市场和贸易模式的变化特征进行了综合评价,力图筛选出影响中国矿产资源供需的主要因素,并实证分析中国矿产资源贸易及其发展前景的基本特征。作者认为,中国矿产资源的巨大潜力能否成为国际矿产资源贸易的主要驱动力并因此带动中国未来经济增长,依然值得继续观察。无能如何,中国正积极影响着全球矿产资源市场和贸易,这一点是肯定的。