The Interface Configuration of the Fresh‐/Dead Sea Water – Theory and Measurements

The high‐density Dead Sea water (1.235 g/cm³) forms a special interface configuration with the fresh groundwater resources of its surrounding aquifers. The fresh groundwater column beneath its surroundings is around one tenth of its length compared to oceanic water. This fact alone indicates the vulnerability of the fresh groundwater resources to the impacts of changes in the Dead Sea level and to saltwater migration. Ghyben‐Herzberg and Glover equations were used to calculate the volumes of water in coastal aquifers which were replaced by freshwater due to the interface seaward migration as a result of the drop in the level of the Dead Sea. For that purpose, the dynamic equation of Glover approach has been integrated to accommodate that type of interface readjustment. The calculated amounts of freshwater which substituted salt Dead Sea water due to the migration of interface are 3.21 · 10¹¹ m³, from a Dead Sea level of –392 m to τ411 m below sea level. The average porosity of coastal aquifers was calculated to range from 2.8 to 2.94%. Geoelectric sounding measurements showed that areas underlying the coastal aquifers formerly occupied by the Dead Sea water are gradually becoming flushed and occupied by freshwater. The latter is becoming salinized due to the residuals of Dead Sea water in the aquifer matrix, the present salinity of which is lower than that of the Dead Sea water. At the same time salt dissolution from the Lisan Marl formation is causing collapses along the shorelines in the form of sinkholes, tens of meters in diameter and depth.     

The water balance of the Dead Sea: an integrated approach

The Dead Sea is the lowest spot on Earth. It is a closed saline lake located in the middle of the Jordan Rift Valley between Lake Tiberias and the Red Sea. Its major tributaries are the Jordan River itself and the Dead Sea side wadis. The Dead Sea has a unique ecosystem and its water has curative, industrial and recreational significance. The level of the Dead Sea has been continuously falling since the early 1930s at an average rate of 0·7 m per year. The water level, as of February 1998, is about 410·9 m below mean sea level. In this paper, a water balance model is developed for the Dead Sea by considering different hydrological components of this water balance, including precipitation, runoff, evaporation and groundwater flow. This model is calibrated based on historical levels of the Dead Sea. Different scenarios are investigated, including the proposed Dead Sea–Red Sea Canal. This project is supposed to halt the shrinking of the Dead Sea and restore it to pre‐1950 levels in the next century. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of evaporation from the Dead Sea

A project to link the Dead Sea to the Red Sea via a canal is undergoing extensive study. As part of this study, a method to estimate evaporation from the Dead Sea is required as it is a hypersaline lake in which standard methods cannot be applied. Two methods based on Penman and Dalton formulae were examined. The method derived here is a modified Penman model that estimates the evaporation as a function of salinity, humidity, air temperature and wind speed. Other parameters such as water temperature are included implicitly in the model. The results obtained were verified as satisfactory agreement was achieved by comparison with previous measurements. A short‐cut relationship to estimate evaporation as a function of salinity only was also derived. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ecogeomorphic state variables and phase‐space construction for quantifying the evolution of vegetated aeolian landscapes

Cellular automaton modelling for the simulation of dune field formation and evolution has developed progressively in aeolian geomorphology in the last decade or so. A model that incorporates the effects of vegetation and its interactions with geomorphic landscape development – the Discrete Ecogeomorphic Aeolian Landscapes (DECAL) model – can replicate a number of important visual and qualitative aspects of the complex evolution of aeolian dune landscapes under the influence of vegetation dynamics in coastal environments. A key challenge in this research area is the analysis and comparison of both simulated and real‐world vegetated dune landscapes using objective and quantifiable principles. This study presents a methodological framework or protocol for numerically quantifying various ecogeomorphic attributes, using a suite of mathematically defined landscape metrics, to provide a rigorous and statistical evaluation of vegetated dune field evolution. Within this framework the model parameter space can be systematically explored and simulation outcomes can be methodically compared against real‐world landscapes. Based on a simplified scenario of parabolic dunes developing out of blow‐outs the resulting dune field realizations are investigated as a function of variable growth vigour of two simulated vegetation types (pioneer grass and successional woody shrub) by establishing a typological phase‐diagram of different landscape classes. The set of simulation outcomes furthermore defines a higher‐dimensional phase‐space, whose axes or dimensions can be interpreted by analysing how individual ecogeomorphic landscape metrics, or state variables, contribute to the data distribution. Principal component analysis can reduce this to a visual three‐dimensional (3D) phase‐space where landscape evolution can be plotted as time‐trajectories and where we can investigate the effects of changing environmental conditions partway through a simulation scenario. The use of landscape state variables and the construction of a 3D phase‐space presented here may provide a general template for quantifying many other eco‐geomorphic systems on the Earth's surface. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tritium in the Dead Sea

Tritium data in the Dead Sea for the period 1960–1979 are given. Tritium levels have increased until 1965 in the upper layers of the Dead Sea reaching a level of 170 TU, in response to the atmospheric buildup of tritium from thermonuclear testing. The levels have been decreasing ever since, both because of rapidly declining atmospheric concentrations of tritium and because of mixing of the surface layers with tritium deficient, deeper water masses. The depth of penetration of the tracer delineated the depth of meromictic stratification and successfully monitored the deepening of the pycnocline, until the overturn in 1979 homogenised the entire tritium profile. Modelling the changing tritium inventory over this period showed the predominance of the direct exchange across the air/sea interface, both in the buildup of tritium in the lake and also in its subsequent removal from it. The good fit between calculated and measured tritium inventories confirmed the evaporation estimate of 1.46 m/yr (the mean value for the period) with a precision unattained by other methods.     

Effect of the Dead Sea–Red Sea canal modelling on the prediction of the Dead Sea conditions

A project to link the Dead Sea to the Red Sea via a canal is undergoing extensive study. In previous works, a generalized mathematical model describing the state of the Dead Sea and a simulation model to implement it have been developed. The model is extended to include the proposed canal project and investigates two alternative modelling canal scenarios: (1) introducing the canal water inflow into the bottom layer or (2) the top layer of the sea. The predicted general effects of the canal are the restoration of the water level of the sea to pre‐1970s level; an increase in the total evaporation rate and a decrease in the top layer salinity. Implementing scenario 1, the model predicts that: the water level of the Dead Sea will exceed the desired level design value and therefore shorter filling time can be used; seasonal stratification will persist; total evaporation rate will increase Modestly; there will a small decrease in the salinity of the top layer but a substantial decrease in the salinity of the bottom layer, which will hurt industries severely; there will be a continuation of seasonal crystallization of aragonite and gypsum. Implementing scenario 2 the model predicts that: the water level of the Dead Sea will be maintained at the desired level design value; stratification will be re‐established, with the formation of a permanent two‐layer system; there will be a substantial increase in the total evaporation rate; the salinity of the top layer will decrease significantly but there will be continuous slower salinity increase in the bottom layer; the crystallization of aragonite will cease, but seasonal gypsum crystallization can be expected to continue as soon as the filling period ends and the canal shifts into normal operation. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Iron in the Dead Sea

The distributions of dissolved and of particulate iron in the Dead Sea during the period which preceeded its overturn and thereafter (1977–1980) are reported. During 1977–1978, the vertical profiles of the iron phases revealed facets of the mixing pattern: the progressive deepening of the pycnocline, restricted mixing within the upper water mass and penetration of surface waters into the deepest layer. The inventories of particulate iron suggest resuspension of bottom sediments in November 1978 and after the overturn the gradual disappearance from the water column of iron sulfides and iron oxy-hydroxides. Fluxes of iron from and to the lake in the undisturbed meromictic Dead Sea have been estimated: it appears that diffusion of divalent iron from bottom sediments was the major source for the standing crop of iron in the lower water mass. Low settling velocities of solid particles in the dense and viscous Dead Sea is one of the causes for the relatively large concentrations of particulate iron. The rate constant for oxidation of divalent iron in Dead Sea sediment interstitial waters is larger by two orders of magnitude than in other natural waters.     

The geochemistry of manganese in the Dead Sea

The most important source of dissolved manganese, Mn(II), to the Dead Sea is by upward diffusion from bottom sediments. This source contributes about 80 tons of Mn(II) each year. The concentration of dissolved manganese in the Dead Sea is extraordinarily high (7.03 mg 1^?1). It appears that the content (some 1.026 × 10⁶ tons) of dissolved manganese in the sea has remained constant during 1977–1979, although oxygen was introduced into deeper layers during the deepening of the pycnocline (1977–1978) and during the overturn of its water masses in the winter of 1978/79. The rate of oxidation of Mn(II) in Dead Sea water is extremely slow hence Mn(II) may practically be considered as the stable form of Mn in Dead Sea waters. Dilution by fresh water causes a pH rise and may facilitate faster oxidation of the dissolved divalent manganese. It is shown here that the shape of the Mn(II) profile, observed in the lake during 1963, may have developed by oxidation of Mn(II) in the more diluted upper layers and subsequent reduction of the oxidation products in the anoxic and more saline deeper layers during 260 years of continuous meromixis.     

Geomorphic knowledge for mangrove restoration: a pan‐tropical categorization

Extreme events such as storm surges and tsunamis in combination with subsidence of densely populated coastal areas pose an increasing threat to millions of people in the tropics. Intertidal mangrove forests may form a natural protection against some extreme events, but have also widely been destroyed by coastal development. The establishment of mangroves and the maintenance of their stability over the short‐ to long‐term requires an understanding of sedimentary processes and landforms in the coastal zone, making geomorphology a crucial, but sometimes neglected discipline when attempting restoration for disaster risk reduction. Mangrove geomorphic setting varies markedly across the tropics, depending on abiotic parameters such as suspended sediment supply and tidal range, with different restoration strategies suitable for each. In this study we provide a global categorization of mangrove geomorphic settings, based on the literature and global remote sensing data. The world's mangroves can be broadly defined as: (1) minerogenic and high tidal range; (2) minerogenic and low tidal range; and (3) organogenic and low tidal range. We further discuss restoration and management approaches most suitable for each geomorphic setting. Overall, this study can be used to inform managers about the relevance of geomorphic knowledge for successful mangrove restoration, how an understanding of geomorphology can influence site selection and restoration success, and how to match specific restoration methods to the prevailing geomorphic context. The stronger incorporation of geomorphic knowledge into site planning and design will improve the success rates of restoration for this important and globally threatened ecosystem. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stormy geomorphology: geomorphic contributions in an age of climate extremes

The increasing frequency and/or severity of extreme climate events are becoming increasingly apparent over multi‐decadal timescales at the global scale, albeit with relatively low scientific confidence. At the regional scale, scientific confidence in the future trends of extreme event likelihood is stronger, although the trends are spatially variable. Confidence in these extreme climate risks is muddied by the confounding effects of internal landscape system dynamics and external forcing factors such as changes in land use and river and coastal engineering. Geomorphology is a critical discipline in disentangling climate change impacts from other controlling factors, thereby contributing to debates over societal adaptation to extreme events. We review four main geomorphic contributions to flood and storm science. First, we show how palaeogeomorphological and current process studies can extend the historical flood record while also unraveling the complex interactions between internal geomorphic dynamics, human impacts and changes in climate regimes. A key outcome will be improved quantification of flood probabilities and the hazard dimension of flood risk. Second, we present evidence showing how antecedent geomorphological and climate parameters can alter the risk and magnitude of landscape change caused by extreme events. Third, we show that geomorphic processes can both mediate and increase the geomorphological impacts of extreme events, influencing societal risk. Fourthly, we show the potential of managing flood and storm risk through the geomorphic system, both near‐term (next 50 years) and longer‐term. We recommend that key methods of managing flooding and erosion will be more effective if risk assessments include palaeodata, if geomorphological science is used to underpin nature‐based management approaches, and if land‐use management addresses changes in geomorphic process regimes that extreme events can trigger. We argue that adopting geomorphologically‐grounded adaptation strategies will enable society to develop more resilient, less vulnerable socio‐geomorphological systems fit for an age of climate extremes. © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

湖泊流域生态系统演化对人类世研究的重要意义

人类世可能成为一个全新的地质时期,以描述人类活动对地球环境造成极为深远的影响,目前已被广泛讨论。湖泊及流域生态系统作为与人类社会最密切的地球单元之一,受到人类活动显著影响,相关研究成果能为理解人类世做出贡献。本文从湖泊流域生态系统和人类世本身特征为切入点,讨论了湖泊及流域生态系统演化对人类世研究的重要意义。我们认为,湖泊具有相对独立的整体,清晰的内部作用关系、完备的理论支持和时空数据支撑,能够为人类世地球各圈层交互作用提供研究框架。湖泊流域生态系统演化的稳态转换与地球环境进入新的地质时期具有诸多相似之处,相关研究成果能够更好地界定人类世开始时间、总体特征以及演变过程和机制。本文指出人类世湖泊及流域生态系统演化研究依然面临诸多挑战,并提出了对未来相关研究的展望。     

Discharge estimation of submarine springs in the Dead Sea based on velocity or density measurements in proximity to the water surface

The Dead Sea is a closed lake, the water level of which is lowering at an alarming rate of about 1 m/year. Factors difficult to determine in its water balance are evaporation and groundwater inflow, some of which emanate as submarine groundwater discharge. A vertical buoyant jet generated by the difference in densities between the groundwater and the Dead Sea brine forms at submarine spring outlets. To characterize this flow field and to determine its volumetric discharge, a system was developed to measure the velocity and density of the ascending submarine groundwater across the center of the stream along several horizontal sections and equidistant depths while divers sampled the spring. This was also undertaken on an artificial submarine spring with a known discharge to determine the quality of the measurements and the accuracy of the method. The underwater widening of the flow is linear and independent of the volumetric spring discharge. The temperature of the Dead Sea brine at lower layers primarily determines the temperature of the surface of the upwelling, produced above the jet flow, as the origin of the main mass of water in the submarine jet flow is Dead Sea brine. Based on the measurements, a model is presented to evaluate the distribution of velocity and solute density in the flow field of an emanating buoyant jet. This model allows the calculation of the volumetric submarine discharge, merely requiring either the maximum flow velocity or the minimal density at a given depth.     

The geomorphology of the Anthropocene: emergence,status and implications

The Anthropocene is proposed as a new interval of geological time in which human influence on Earth and its geological record dominates over natural processes. A major challenge in demarcating the Anthropocene is that the balance between human‐influenced and natural processes varies over spatial and temporal scales owing to the inherent variability of both human activities (as associated with culture and modes of development) and natural drivers (e.g. tectonic activity and sea level variation). Against this backdrop, we consider how geomorphology might contribute towards the Anthropocene debate by focusing on human impact on aeolian, fluvial, cryospheric and coastal process domains, and how evidence of this impact is preserved in landforms and sedimentary records. We also consider the evidence for an explicitly anthropogenic geomorphology that includes artificial slopes and other human‐created landforms. This provides the basis for discussing the theoretical and practical contributions that geomorphology can make to defining an Anthropocene stratigraphy. It is clear that the relevance of the Anthropocene concept varies considerably amongst different branches of geomorphology, depending on the history of human actions in different process domains. For example, evidence of human dominance is more widespread in fluvial and coastal records than in aeolian and cryospheric records, so geomorphologically the Anthropocene would inevitably comprise a highly diachronous lower boundary. Even to identify this lower boundary, research would need to focus on the disambiguation of human effects on geomorphological and sedimentological signatures. This would require robust data, derived from a combination of modelling and new empirical work rather than an arbitrary ‘war of possible boundaries' associated with convenient, but disputed, ‘golden’ spikes. Rather than being drawn into stratigraphical debates, the primary concern of geomorphology should be with the investigation of processes and landform development, so providing the underpinning science for the study of this time of critical geological transition. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does the Actual Drop in Dead Sea Level Reflect the Development of Water Sources Within its Drainage Basin?

As a part of Jordan’s efforts to quantify the effect of the Dead Sea level decline on the precious groundwater resources of the surrounding aquifers, the authors analyzed the historic or predevelopment inflows and outflows of the Dead Sea basin and the resulting water balance which included precipitation, evaporation, surface‐ and groundwaters. The predevelopment situation was taken as the point of departure for the sake of this study. Furthermore, the present situation was analyzed in an attempt to quantify the groundwater inflows into the Dead Sea as a result of drop in the Dead Sea level. The groundwater component and the corresponding saltwater/freshwater interface were taken as the variables to balance the levels of the sea that would have been reached without the contribution of the uncontrolled groundwater inflows as a result of the salt/freshwater interface seaward migration. The present day water balance that includes all the water diversion projects from all riparians indicates serious declines in the Dead Sea level. The effects of the present day level declines on the fresh groundwater/saltwater interface indicate that considerable amounts of groundwater are driven into the Sea as a result of the seaward migration of the freshwater/saline water interface.     

Changes in the Dead Sea Level and their Impacts on the Surrounding Groundwater Bodies

In this paper the reaction of the salt‐/freshwater interface due to the changes in the Dead Sea level are elaborated at in details by using the inflows into the Dead Sea, the outflows due to evaporation losses and artificial discharges, and the hydrographic registrations of the Dead Sea level. The analyses show that the interface seaward migration resulted in a groundwater discharge of around 423 Mio m³ per meter drop in the level of the Dead Sea in the period 1994–1998 and of around 525 Mio m³/m in the period 1930–1937. The additional amount of groundwater joining the Dead Sea due to the interface seaward migration was 51 Mio m³ per one square kilometer of shrinkage in the area of the Dead Sea in the period 1930–1937 and 91 Mio m³/km² in the period 1994–1998. The riparian states of the Dead Sea are nowadays loosing 370 Mio m³/a of freshwater to the Dead Sea through the interface readjustment mechanisms as a result of their over exploitation of waters which formerly fed the Dead Sea.     

Modelling the potential impacts of groundwater hydrology on long‐term drainage basin evolution

Fluvial erosion processes are driven by water discharge on the land surface, which is produced by surface runoff and groundwater discharge. Although groundwater is often neglected in long‐term landscape evolution problems, water table levels control patterns of Dunne runoff production, and groundwater discharge can contribute significantly to storm flows. In this analysis, we investigate the role that groundwater movement plays in long‐term drainage basin evolution by modifying a widely used landscape evolution model to include a more detailed representation of basin hydrology. Precipitation is generated by a stochastic process, and the precipitation is partitioned between surface runoff and groundwater recharge using a specified infiltration capacity. Groundwater flow is simulated by a dynamic two‐dimensional Dupuit equation for an unconfined aquifer with an irregular underlying impervious layer. The model is applied to the WE‐38 basin, an experimental catchment in Pennsylvania, because 60–80 per cent of the discharge is derived from groundwater and substantial hydrologic and geomorphic information is available. The hydrologic model is first calibrated to match the observed streamflows, and then the combined hydrologic/geomorphic model is used to simulate scenarios with different infiltration capacities. The results of this modelling exercise indicate that the basin can be divided into three zones with distinct streamflow‐generating characteristics, and different parts of the basin can have different geomorphic effective events. Over long periods of time, scenarios in which groundwater discharge is large tend to modify the topography in a way that promotes groundwater discharge and inhibits Dunne runoff. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Coast formation in an Arctic area due to glacier surge and retreat: The Hornbreen–Hambergbreen case from Spistbergen

Glacierised coasts undergo faster geomorphic processes than unglaciated ones. We have studied changes of the coastal area in southern Svalbard with the glacier bridge between Torell Land and Sørkapp Land since the beginning of the 20th century. The existence of a continuous subglacial depression beneath the Hornbreen–Hambergbreen glacier system has been debated since the 1960s, with inconclusive results. In this study we assess both the subglacial topography and the bathymetry of Hornsund Fjord and Hambergbukta bay. This included ~40 km of radar surveys over the glacial system and sea depth sounding. The extent of the glaciers from maps and satellite images together with digital terrain models and surface elevation data based on GPS profiling were used to analyse geometry changes of the glacier surfaces. The results confirm the existence of a continuous subglacial depression below sea level (c. 40 m deep) between Hornsund and the Barents Sea. The Hornbreen‐Hambergbreen system has changed in shape over the past century, reflecting its dynamic origin and activity, also exemplified by the sequential surges identified since 1899. There was a pre‐surge build‐up event of Flatbreen causing a surge and subsequent lowering of the Hornbreen‐Hambergbreen frontal parts by the 1960s. After, the entire surface lowered, albeit with a delay in the Hornbreen terminal zone. Since the year 2000, Hornbreen terminus has retreated at an average rate of 106 m a^?1; ~50% faster than that of Hambergbreen. If the retreat continues at the 2000–2015 average rate, the ice bridge between Hornsund and Hambergbukta will be broken sometime between 2055 and 2065 and the Hornsund strait will separate Sørkapp Land from the Spitsbergen island. The processes and events described in this study, particularly the effects of the glacier surge, may provide a model for changes likely to occur in other coastal glaciated regions experiencing rapid change. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Salt karst and tectonics: sinkholes development along tension cracks between parallel strike‐slip faults,Dead Sea,Jordan

This work deals with the tectonic interpretation of an alignment of more than 300 sinkholes stretching along the Jordanian coast of the Dead Sea, Ghor Al Haditha area. Its dimensions are 6 km long with a width of 600 m. Sinkholes appeared during the last decades as a consequence of the very rapid lowering of the lake level. The linear shape was inferred from ground collapse inventories carried out between 1991 and 2008. The lineament is replaced and analyzed in its structural setting at regional and local scales. Its direction (N 24° E) is sub‐parallel to the ones displayed by many focal mechanisms, especially the one associated with the earthquake of the 23 April, 1979 (mb = 5·1; N 20° E ± 5°), which is representative of all focal mechanisms calculated on a fault plane compatible with the general direction of the Jordan‐Dead Sea Transform fault system for the east coast of the Dead Sea area. The alignment of sinkholes is constituted by 13 minor linear segments separated by as many empty spaces. Four minor linear units present an en‐echelon arrangement from which one can deduce the presence of a local extensional stress field. In this context, the sinkhole locations provide information of subsurface discontinuities interpreted as hidden fractures. In a close future, such results could support the work of decision‐makers and engineers in the projected development of the area. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Overview of Recent Coastal Tectonic Deformation in the Mexican Subduction Zone

Holocene and Pleistocene tectonic deformation of the coast in the Mexico subudction margin is recorded by geomorphic and stratigraphic markers. We document the spatial and temporal variability of active deformation on the coastal Mexican subduction margin. Pleistocene uplift rates are estimated using wave-cut platforms at ca. 0.7?C0.9?m/ka on the Jalisco block coast, Rivera-North America tectonic plate boundary. We examine reported measurements from marine notches and shoreline angle elevations in conjunction with their radiocarbon ages that indicate surface uplift rates increasing during the Holocene up to ca. 3?±?0.5?m/ka. In contrast, steady rates of uplift (ca. 0.5?C1.0?m/ka) in the Pleistocene and Holocene characterize the Michoacan coastal sector, south of El Gordo graben and north of the Orozco Fracture Zone (OFZ), incorporated within the Cocos-North America plate boundary. Significantly higher rates of surface uplift (ca. 7?m/ka) across the OFZ subduction may reflect the roughness of subducting plate. Absence of preserved marine terraces on the coastal sector across El Gordo graben likely reflects slow uplift or coastal subsidence. Stratigraphic markers and their radiocarbon ages show late Holocene (ca. last 6?ka bp) coastal subsidence on the Guerrero gap sector in agreement with a landscape barren of marine terraces and with archeological evidence of coastal subsidence. Temporal and spatial variability in recent deformation rates on the Mexican Pacific coast may be due to differences in tectonic regimes and to localized processes related to subduction, such as crustal faults, subduction erosion and underplating of subducted materials under the southern Mexico continental margin.     

Dynamic simulation of the Dead Sea

The Dead Sea is a hypersaline terminal lake located in the Rift Valley between Jordan and Israel. In this work a generalised mathematical model describing the behaviour of the Dead Sea has been developed. The model established the condition of the Sea by evaluating a series of ordinary differential equations describing mass balances on the water and major chemical species in the Sea. The Sea was modelled as a two-layer system. The model was validated by comparing its predictions to measured level records. The results obtained highlighted the importance of detailed evaporation modelling, showed the necessity to model the Sea as a two-layer system, validated the usage of average distribution data to estimate the flowrates of rivers, and justified ignoring diffusion effects in further modelling. The model predicted that in the case of continuing current conditions, the level will continue to decline, at a decelerating rate, because the area and evaporation rate are both decreasing. Under these conditions, the model shows that the salinity of both layers will continue to increase, and that seasonal stratification and seasonal crystallisation of gypsum and aragonite will continue.