A major seismogenic fault in a 'silent area': the Castrovillari fault (southern Apennines, Italy)

Large historical earthquakes in Italy define a prominent gap in the Pollino region of the southern Apennines. Geomorphic and palaeoseismological investigations in this region show that the Castrovillari fault (CF) is a major seismogenic source that could potentially fill the southern part of this gap. The surface expression of the CF is a complex, 10–13 km long set of prominent scarps. Trenches across one scarp indicate that at least four surface-faulting earthquakes have occurred along the CF since Late Pleistocene time, each producing at least 1 m of vertical displacement. The length of the fault and the slip per event suggest M =6.5-7.0 for the palaeoearthquakes. Preliminary radiocarbon dating coupled with historical considerations imply that the most recent of these earthquakes occurred between 380 BC and 1200 AD, and probably soon after 760 AD; no evidence for this event has been found in the historical record. We estimate a minimum recurrence interval of 1170 years and a vertical slip rate of 0.2-0.5 mm yr^-1 for the CF, which indicates that the seismic behaviour of this fault is comparable to other major seismogenic faults of the central-southern Apennines. The lack of mention or the mislocation of the most recent event in the historical seismic memory of the Pollino region clearly shows that even in Italy, which has one of the longest historical records of seismicity, a seismic hazard assessment based solely on the historical record may not be completely reliable, and shows that geological investigations are critical for filling possible information gaps.     

Seismicity and seismic gap in the Lesser Antilles arc and earthquake hazard in Guadeloupe

Summary. A seismic study of the Lesser Antilles arc has been carried out, first for the period 1950–1978, for which we can use local seismic networks to draw maps of instrumental seismicity, then for the period 1530–1950, for which we have catalogues of felt earthquakes. The striking feature of the spatial distribution of foci is the cluster of epicentres in the northern half of the arc; all large earthquakes ( M > 7.5) are located north of 14° latitude. Seismicity cross-sections through the arc show a variable dipping subduction zone along the arc; the deep seismic zone is steeper in the centre of the arc than on the extremity.
The time-space diagram for historical seismicity, and the evidence of a seismic gap at the east of Guadeloupe lead us to consider the northern half arc as a likely site for a large earthquake in the near future.
The seismic slip rate calculated from all major earthquakes since 1530 is of much greater value than that obtained from recent plate tectonic models, suggesting that the recurrence rate of earthquakes is more than many hundreds of years with a possible aseismic creep.     

Rates of active deformation in the Aegean Sea and surrounding regions

Abstract Average strain rates are calculated from earthquakes in the period 1908-81 that occurred in the Aegean Sea extensional region, and in the convergent zone associated with the Hellenic Trench. In spite of large uncertainties resulting from the use of an M_S : M_o relationship, seismic N-S extensional rates in the Aegean are in the region 20–60 mm yr^-1 whereas seismic shortening rates in the Hellenic Trench are less than about 15 mm yr^-1. This is surprising because Africa and Eurasia are known to be converging, not separating. This apparent anomaly is caused by most of the convergence in the Hellenic Trench occurring aseismically. By contrast, the seismic extensional rates in the Aegean agree quite well with those expected from other arguments. The present day extensional rates are sufficiently high for McKenzie's instantaneous stretching model to be applicable. There is some evidence that these high extensional rates have operated throughout the last 5 Myr.     

A multidisciplinary study of a slow-slipping fault for seismic hazard assessment: the example of the Middle Durance Fault (SE France)

Assessing seismic hazard in continental interiors is difficult because these regions are characterized by low strain rates and may be struck by infrequent destructive earthquakes. In this paper, we provide an example showing that interpretations of seismic cross sections combined with other kinds of studies such as analysis of microseismicity allow the whole seismogenic source area to be imaged in this type of region. The Middle Durance Fault (MDF) is an 80-km-long fault system located southeastern France that has a moderate but regular seismicity and some palaeoseismic evidence for larger events. It behaves as an oblique ramp with a left-lateral-reverse fault slip and has a low strain rate. MDF is one of the rare slow active fault system monitored by a dedicated dense velocimetric short period network. This study showed a fault system segmented in map and cross section views which consists of staircase basement faults topped by listric faults ramping off Triassic evaporitic beds. Seismic sections allowed the construction of a 3-D structural model used for accurate location of microseismicity. Southern part of MDF is mainly active in the sedimentary cover. In its northern part and in Alpine foreland, seismicity deeper than 8 km was also recorded meaning active faults within the crust cannot be excluded. Seismogenic potential of MDF was roughly assessed. Resulting source sizes and estimated slip rates imply that the magnitude upper limit ranges from 6.0 to 6.5 with a return period of a few thousand years. The present study shows that the coupling between 3-D fault geometry imaging and accurate location of microseismicity provides a robust approach to analyse active fault sources and consequently a more refined seismic hazard assessment.     

里海地区能源安全及西方对该地区的地缘政治战略

里海地处欧亚大陆的接合处,地理位置极其重要。近年来,随着一批新的里海大型油汽田的探明,里海的石油地位也迅速上升,再次成为世界关注的焦点。苏联解体后,里海地区一方面因其丰富的油气资源储备备受国际社会关注;另一方面,里海面临着激烈的国际竞争局面和不稳定的区域发展前景。本文论述了里海地区油气资源的储备和生产、出口现状以及国际竞争的局面,尤其是西方参与里海地区油气资源竞争的格局,这不仅引起该地区非国家主体的地缘政治的改变,从而也深刻影响着西方国家主体对该地区的战略和政策。     

Slip rate on the Dead Sea transform fault in northern Araba valley (Jordan)

The Araba valley lies between the southern tip of the Dead Sea and the Gulf of Aqaba. This depression, blanketed with alluvial and lacustrine deposits, is cut along its entire length by the Dead Sea fault. In many places the fault is well defined by scarps, and evidence for left-lateral strike-slip faulting is abundant. The slip rate on the fault can be constrained from dated geomorphic features displaced by the fault. A large fan at the mouth of Wadi Dahal has been displaced by about 500 m since the bulk of the fanglomerates were deposited 77–140 kyr ago, as dated from cosmogenic isotope analysis (¹⁰Be in chert) of pebbles collected on the fan surface and from the age of transgressive lacustrine sediments capping the fan. Holocene alluvial surfaces are also clearly offset. By correlation with similar surfaces along the Dead Sea lake margin, we propose a chronology for their emplacement. Taken together, our observations suggest an average slip rate over the Late Pleistocene of between 2 and 6 mm yr⁻¹, with a preferred value of 4 mm yr⁻¹. This slip rate is shown to be consistent with other constraints on the kinematics of the Arabian plate, assuming a rotation rate of about 0.396° Myr⁻¹ around a pole at 31.1°N, 26.7°E relative to Africa.     

The deep seismicity of the Tyrrhenian Sea

The study reappraises the deep seismicity of the Tyrrhenian Sea. Careful examination of the quality of reported hypocentres shows that the earthquakes define a zone dipping NW, about 200 km along strike, 50 km thick, and reaching a depth of about 500 km. The zone is slightly concave to the NW at a depth of 300 km, but, contrary to many previous reports, is not tightly concave, nor are there significant spatial gaps in the seismicity, which is effectively continuous with depth. Seismicity is, however, concentrated in the depth interval 250–300 km, where the dip of the seismic zone changes from 70° (above 250 km) to a more gentle dip of 45° at greater depths. Seven fault-plane solutions are available for the largest earthquakes in this depth interval, all of them consistent with a P -axis down the dip of the seismic zone, and all of them requiring movement on faults out of the plane of the subducting slab.
Two deep earthquakes near Naples lie well outside the main zone of activity; for one of which a fault-plane solution is available that has a P -axis not aligned with the dip of the seismic zone. The tightly concave slab-geometry favoured by other reports is supported mainly by the location of these events near Naples, which we think may represent deformation in a separate, probably shallower dipping, piece of subducted lithosphere.
The lack of shallow seismicity, and particularly of thrust faulting earthquakes, at the surface projection of the Benioff zone suggests that active subduction has ceased. Estimates of the convergence rate responsible for subduction in the last 10 Myr far exceed the present convergence rate of Africa and Eurasia, suggesting that the subduction was related instead to the stretching and thinning of the crust in the Tyrrhenian Sea.     

Kinematics and dynamics of the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau

On the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau lies a large region which seismicity and GPS data show to be actively deforming. This paper describes the active faulting in the region, and how it relates to the velocity field observed with GPS. In places the velocity field is accommodated by rotations about vertical axes, and most or all of the strain at the surface in the region appears to be released seismically. GPS velocities are then compared to velocities calculated using a model for deformation driven by gravitational driving forces. Using rheologies estimated from experimentally derived mineral flow laws, the model provides velocities that are in good agreement with observed GPS velocities. It is not possible to uniquely determine the rheology or flow velocity at depth, and there are two forms of model solution which match the observed horizontal surface velocities. In one of these, vertical planes deform by pure shear, and in the other vertical gradients of horizontal velocity are present within the crust. Two distinct regions of normal-faulting earthquakes are present in the region, and have mechanisms which are most easily explained by gravity-driven deformation.     

Seismicity re-evaluation of the northern Red Sea

The Aqaba subnetwork of five vertical short-period stations of the seismological observatory of King Saud University was installed in late 1986 along the eastern side of the Gulf of Aqaba, northern Red Sea. During the first six years (1986 August to 1992 July) of the subnetwork operation, 400 microearthquakes were detected. Of these, 93 events were recorded by most of the subnet stations and were located. Their epicentres lie in the northern part of the Red Sea between latitudes 25.5 N and 27.5 N and longitudes 33.5 E and 36 E along the axial depression of the Red Sea where the large intrusions (deeps) are located. Magnitudes of the locatable events ranged from 2.1 to 4.8. Two intensive swarms of about 200 microearthquakes occurred in February and June of 1992. The February swarm is the first intensive sequence observed in the surveying area since the establishment of the KSU network. Frequency-magnitude analysis of the recorded events for the period 1986-1992 yielded 3.543 for a and 0.658 for b . These relatively higher b values (0.658) are a good indication of the crustal heterogeneity under the spreading zone of the northern Red Sea. USGS and KSU data together show 3.41 for a and 0.49 for b . This study, together with historical data, confirms that the area is very seismically active and that the activity is mainly of swarm type, and may be attributed to the subsurface magmatic activity and spreading centres that are usually associated with strike-slip and normal faulting, respectively.     

南海问题的大周边地缘环境

南海的西沙、南沙等历来是中国的领土,但如今海洋国土存在重大争议,南海已经成为世界上最复杂、最紧张的水域之一,南海周边的政治、军事、经济地缘环境也越来越为复杂。本文以南海问题为切入点,基于南海地理区位中的要素联系对南海周边国家的地缘环境进行探讨。结果得出:南海问题是涉及多元利益和跨国机构关联的复杂问题,南海周边是一个包含域内争端国家、域外干涉国家和具有复杂组织机构关联的"大"周边,南海周边地缘环境是超出地理毗邻的"大"地缘环境,中国南海的维权维稳势必要在域内双边地缘环境、域外多边地缘环境、国际多元多边地缘环境等构成的大周边地缘环境下做出战略决策。     

南海实现和谐之路

中国最早发现和开发利用南海及其诸岛,南海之名始见于周朝,距今3 000多年,至秦汉时,已开发南海至印度洋的航运和商贸事业。南海诸岛和南海部分海域属于中国领土和海疆,标示在中国出版的地图中为断续国界线。南海周边国家关系历来大多处于和谐状态,其中秦汉南海海上丝绸之路和明朝郑和船队下西洋为其中显著发展的和谐时段。而自中世纪以来,域外强国侵入南海,使南海区域在相当长时间内处于严重不和谐状态。其中,15―19世纪,欧美殖民主义者侵占南海周边各国。20世纪上半叶,日本殖民主义者开始侵占中国南海诸岛,并在第二次世界大战中吞占了整个南海区域;20世纪下半叶,法国和美国相继挑起印度支那战争和越南战争。南海周边部分国家霸占中国南海诸岛许多岛礁,并在其上建筑和扩建机场及港口,扩军备,分割其海疆并掠夺其海洋石油天然气资源。中国必须开展积极的外交和军事活动,尤其是加强国防建设,在南海诸岛建设海空军基地,才能保护中国南海油气和渔业资源的开发和运输畅通,并尽早收回全部岛礁主权,使南海周边国家愿意“共同开发”,创造和谐的南海。     

环渤海区域信息化合作模式与框架研究

从信息地理学研究视角,尝试建立环渤海区域信息化合作的模式与框架。分析环渤海区域信息化合作的内在需求与特征,从政府间、企业间以及政府、企业与研究机构3个信息化合作层面揭示环渤海区域信息化合作的模式,提出环渤海区域信息化合作由筹划组织、重点推进和全方位合作3个阶段构成;在此基础上建立一个包括各阶段运作主体、合作内容、组织平台和信息平台的框架体系,提出促进环渤海区域信息化合作的建议。     

Statistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region Lower Rhine Embayment

The time-dependence of earthquake occurrence is mostly ignored in standard seismic hazard assessment even though earthquake clustering is well known. In this work, we attempt to quantify the impact of more realistic dynamics on the seismic hazard estimations. We include the time and space dependences between earthquakes into the hazard analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. Our target region is the Lower Rhine Embayment, a low seismicity area in Germany. Including aftershock sequences by using the epidemic type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, we find that on average the hypothesis of uncorrelated random earthquake activity underestimates the hazard by 5–10 per cent. Furthermore, we show that aftershock activity of past large earthquakes can locally increase the hazard even centuries later. We also analyse the impact of the so-called long-term behaviour, assuming a quasi-periodic occurrence of main events on a major fault in that region. We found that a significant impact on hazard is only expected for the special case of a very regular recurrence of the main shocks.     

Transitional continental–oceanic structure beneath the Norwegian Sea from inversion of surface wave group velocity data

We have analysed the fundamental mode of Love and Rayleigh waves generated by 12 earthquakes located in the mid-Atlantic ridge and Jan Mayen fracture zone. Using the multiple filter analysis technique, we isolated the Rayleigh and Love wave group velocities for periods between 10 and 50  s. The surface wave propagation paths were divided into five groups, and average group velocities calculated for each group. The average group velocities were inverted and produced shear wave velocity models that correspond to a quasi-continental oceanic structure in the Greenland–Norwegian Sea region. Although resolution is poor at shallow depth, we obtained crustal thickness values of about 18  km in the Norwegian Sea area and 9  km in the region between Svalbard and Iceland. The abnormally thick crust in the Norwegian Sea area is ascribed to magmatic underplating and the thermal blanketing effect of sedimentary layers. Maximum crustal shear velocities vary between 3.5 and 3.9  km  s⁻¹ for most paths. An average lithospheric thickness of 60  km was observed, which is lower than expected for oceanic-type structure of similar age. We also observed low shear wave velocities in the lower crust and upper mantle. We suggest that high heat flow extending to depths of about 30  km beneath the surface can account for the thin lithosphere and observed low velocities. Anisotropy coefficients of 1–5 per cent in the shallow layers and >7 per cent in the upper mantle point to the existence of polarization anisotropy in the region.     

曾昭璇先生对南海地理研究的重要贡献

曾昭璇先生是中国著名的地理学家,地貌学家和教育家.他在学术生涯的不同阶段对地貌学,自然地理学,历史地理学,人类地理学等学科领域均有积极的探索,他对南海地理问题的研究贯穿他的一生,为中国南海地理研究作出重要贡献.他深入研究南海海岸地貌,珊瑚礁地貌,主张采用"地形类型分析法"划分海岸类型,将中国海岸类型划分为山地港湾岸,台地岸与平原岸;他与梁景芬等合著《中国珊瑚礁地貌研究》,系统论述中国珊瑚礁探测史和石珊瑚的种属,生态,地貌特征与发育,并将中国珊瑚礁划分为四大区,六种地貌类型;他完善了珊瑚礁地貌土地名分类,根据《更路簿》划分南海珊瑚岛礁分布区,绘制珊瑚岛礁探测图;他利用历史文献资料考证"石塘"等南海诸岛古地名;他从地质学与地貌学角度论证南海诸岛与中国大陆的陆缘关系,还利用历史地理与地方志等资料佐证了南海诸岛自古以来就是中国的固有领土.     

Recurrence-time and frequency-slip statistics of slip events on the creeping section of the San Andreas fault in central California

An important question in seismic hazard assessments is the frequency-size and recurrence interval statistics at a point on a fault. Does a point on a fault obey the same statistics as earthquakes in a region do? This is a difficult question to answer because the number of repetitive earthquakes on a particular fault that have been observed is small. In order to overcome this difficulty we consider slip events on the creeping section of the San Andreas fault in central California. Sequences of up to 100 events are obtained from creepmeter records. We compare the statistical distribution of recurrence times with the Brownian passage-time, lognormal, and Weibull distributions and using goodness-of-fit tests find that the Weibull is the preferred distribution. We also consider the frequency–amplitude distribution of slip events. We find that the data clearly do not obey a Gutenberg–Richter distribution. Instead there is a uniform distribution of event sizes for a large fraction of events.     

Quaternary normal faulting in southeastern Sicily (Italy):a seismic source for the 1693 large earthquake

We present geological and morphological data, combined with an analysis of seismic reflection lines across the Ionian offshore zone and information on historical earthquakes, in order to yield new constraints on active faulting in southeastern Sicily. This region, one of the most seismically active of the Mediterranean, is affected by WNW–ESE regional extension producing normal faulting of the southern edge of the Siculo–Calabrian rift zone. Our data describe two systems of Quaternary normal faults, characterized by different ages and related to distinct tectonic processes. The older NW–SE-trending normal fault segments developed up to ≈400  kyr ago and, striking perpendicular to the main front of the Maghrebian thrust belt, bound the small basins occurring along the eastern coast of the Hyblean Plateau. The younger fault system is represented by prominent NNW–SSE-trending normal fault segments and extends along the Ionian offshore zone following the NE–SW-trending Avola and Rosolini–Ispica normal faults. These faults are characterized by vertical slip rates of 0.7–3.3  mm  yr ⁻¹ and might be associated with the large seismic events of January 1693. We suggest that the main shock of the January 1693 earthquakes ( M ~ 7) could be related to a 45  km long normal fault with a right-lateral component of motion. A long-term net slip rate of about 3.7  mm  yr ⁻¹ is calculated, and a recurrence interval of about 550 ± 50  yr is proposed for large events similar to that of January 1693.     

气候变化对里海水位的影响（英文）

目前,关于里海的两个主要问题是水位变化及其生态条件。历史上,里海的海水入侵和衰退对该区域的生活和生产有很大影响。应用地质数据、历史数据和考古数据,以及观测数据,本文对地质历史时期里海水位的变化、年度和季度变化以及短期的波动进行了研究。文章对解释里海水位波动的两种不同的方法进行了论述,并认为里海水位变化是受地质、水文气候和水量平衡以及人类活动等因素的影响的多级过程,其中主要影响因素为水文气候的变化。     

海洋悬浮泥沙二元特征参数 MODIS遥感反演模型研究

本文提出了一种采用海面离水辐射率和泥沙粒径二元特征参数来反演研究海区(渤海)海洋表层悬浮泥沙浓度的新的遥感反演算法,以此为基础分别建立了基于MODIS遥感数据和泥沙粒径二元特征参数的主成分和神经网络两种泥沙浓度反演模型,并对比分析了两类模型的反演精度以及泥沙粒径因子对模型的影响。分析结果表明,新建立的二元特征参数反演算法在采用主成分模型和神经网络模型时的检验误差分别为0.256和0.244,而忽略泥沙粒径因子贡献的主成分模型和神经网络模型的检验误差分别为0.384和0.390,因此可以认为,在泥沙浓度反演模型中加入粒径因子时,模型的预测精度和模型稳定性均比只考虑浓度对反射率贡献的模型有显著改善。