河北“23.7”极端暴雨过程特征及成因初探

2023年7月29日—8月1日,河北省发生了致灾严重的极端暴雨事件,气象观测站3 d(72 h)最大累计降水量为1 003.4 mm(邢台临城梁家庄),河北、北京多站突破了历史纪录。利用高空、地面、卫星云图和多普勒天气雷达等观测资料以及ERA5再分析资料,对此次极端暴雨的极端性和成因进行了初步分析。结果表明,此次极端暴雨过程是在对流层高、中、低层以及中、低纬度多尺度大气系统共同作用,并叠加地形影响下产生的。1)中纬度大陆高压东移并与北上西进的副热带高压连通,在河北北部形成稳定的西北—东南向高压坝,台风“杜苏芮”登陆后北上西行到河南境内时,受阻于高压坝,速度减慢,导致台风残涡降水长时间维持。2)台风“杜苏芮”北上自身携带的水汽以及副高南侧的台风“卡奴”远距离输送的水汽,为河北极端暴雨的发生提供了充足的水汽;台风北上减弱过程中结构不变,边界层东北风急流和东南风急流辐合,加上太行山地形的辐合抬升作用,共同为极端降水提供了强盛的动力条件。3)太行山中段的强降水时段集中在29日夜间至30日夜间,主要是减弱台风残涡的螺旋雨带、东到东北风急流在迎风坡抬升以及喇叭口地形、“狭管效应”增强辐合共同作用所...     

2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨过程的水汽输送特征

利用NCEP再分析资料,根据水汽收支方程计算2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨时期华北东北部暴雨区域的水汽收支情况并分析水汽输送特征。得到以下结论:经向水汽输送在此次暴雨过程中起主要作用,暴雨区内水汽主要来源于中、低层(500 hPa以下)的南边界。暴雨区内水汽的辐合与暴雨发生的时间和空间具有较好一致性,在低层水汽的辐合起主要作用,中高层水汽垂直输送作用更为显著。HYSPLIT后向轨迹模拟得到的结果显示根据水汽源地划分影响此次暴雨过程水汽输送路径主要有:从孟加拉湾、南海地区处于中低层直接北上的西南路径,以及中层以下从我国东部海域(黄海、东海为主)进入内陆之后北折向东北偏北方向运动的L形高湿路径;同时高层沿着西风带西北路径的干空气输送也对此次强降水有重要影响。三者中从东部海域到达暴雨区的水汽贡献率最大,而孟加拉湾、南海的水汽输送对于此次强降水起到了明显的增强作用。     

台风“温比亚”（1818）造成山东极端强降水的成因分析

利用气象卫星、多普勒天气雷达、区域自动气象观测站及常规气象观测资料,结合NCEP/NCAR逐日6 h再分析资料（0.25°×0.25°）,对2018年18号台风“温比亚”及其残骸长时间影响山东引发特大暴雨的成因进行分析发现：1）此次极端降水可分为三个阶段,分别受台风外围螺旋云系、倒槽和变性后温带气旋冷锋影响,其中弱冷空气与台风倒槽相互作用对强降水的产生和维持起到了重要作用。2）“温比亚”缓慢北上过程中,强降水落区从台风东侧逆时针转至其北部倒槽附近,并逐渐远离台风中心,台风强度逐渐减弱。3）冷空气在对流层中层与台风倒槽相互作用,中层冷暖平流增强形成锋区,斜压不稳定能量增强,暖湿空气在锋区附近上升,并与低层倒槽辐合上升运动相配合,引发了倒槽附近特大暴雨的发生。4）此次过程中,低空急流稳定维持,源源不断地将水汽自东海输送至台风倒槽附近,水汽输送集中在800 hPa以下,850 hPa水汽通量辐合强度大于8×10-6 g·cm-2·hPa-1·s-1区域与暴雨落区的形态和位置对应良好。5）对流层中层的弱冷空气和低层的强暖湿气流促进了对流不稳定层结的发展和维持,低层强风速带在鲁中山区迎风坡强迫抬升不断触发中尺度对流系统,在中高层气流引导和地形作用下产生“列车效应”,也是此次过程中局地特大暴雨产生的重要因素。     

郑州“7·20”极端暴雨过程中水汽和高低空急流作用机制的数值模拟

针对郑州“7·20”特大暴雨过程,使用CMA-MESO区域模式对此次极端强降水过程中水汽与高低空急流的影响进行了数值试验分析。结果表明,此次暴雨过程较为成功地被中尺度模式模拟再现;暴雨过程中水汽来源主要为台风“烟花”北侧的东南急流携带的来自西太平洋与印度洋的水汽以及台风“查帕卡”北侧东南气流携带的来自南海的水汽;降水及水汽输送对水汽含量十分敏感,水汽含量微小的变化便会使郑州上空气流辐合区强度减弱,水汽累积减少,降水范围向河南北部缩小,降水强度大幅度减弱;低空急流对应的气流辐合区是郑州上空出现强垂直上升运动中心的主要机制,低空急流减弱后,水汽辐合减弱,降水减少,降水中心位置偏西南,高空急流对降水的影响与低空急流相比较小。     

2019年台风“利奇马”和“罗莎”引发东北地区暴雨的水汽特征分析

利用NCEP的FNL(Final Reanalysis Data)和GDAS(Global Data Assimilation System)再分析资料、中国气象观测网降水实况数据及基于拉格朗日方法的HYSPLIT轨迹模型结果,对2019年8月13—17日发生在中国东北地区一次减弱台风引发暴雨过程的水汽条件和输送过程进行分析。结果表明：此次中国东北地区暴雨的水汽与源自西太平洋的水汽关系最为密切,台风“利奇马”为本次暴雨的主要水汽供应系统,其次是台风“罗莎”外围水汽补充。拉格朗日方法的水汽输送源主要有3个,分别为源于中低纬西太平洋,与欧拉方法的太平洋和黄海水汽相对应;源于中国南海南部,与印度洋水汽相对应;源于黑龙江北部,中国北方的水汽对暴雨也有一定作用。中国南海南部水汽与西太平洋水汽合并,为此次东北地区暴雨的主要水汽供应。水汽收支主要集中在中低层,水汽的辐合区主要位于700～900 hPa。低层的水汽垂直向高层输送,水汽的辐合和垂直输送越强,降水量越大。水汽流入集中在低层的南边界,西边界和北边界一般为水汽流出边界。     

“21·7”河南特大暴雨水汽和急流特征诊断分析

2021年7月中下旬在河南省发生了一场极端强降水过程,暴雨持续时间长,累计降水量大,落区集中,造成了严重的人员伤亡。基于自动站雨量数据和ERA5再分析数据探讨了多尺度系统、急流和地形对水汽的输送和辐合及降水形成的重要作用和影响机制。结果发现:暴雨发生在远距离台风影响的有利环流背景之下,大量来自西太平洋的水汽从边界层和对流层低层进入河南东侧,来自南海的水汽从南侧对流层中低层进入降水区,在低涡、切变线和辐合线的共同作用下,引发强降水。低空急流与边界层急流的耦合形成低层水汽辐合上升中心,地形起到了动力阻挡抬升和热力抬升作用,并与急流综合作用,使强降水呈带状出现在山前,且20日位于豫中,21日在豫北。     

台风“泰利”过后汕尾特大暴雨过程的成因分析

利用常规气象资料、中尺度自动站观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°分辨率再分析资料以及多普勒雷达资料等,对2012年6月21—23日汕尾地区连续性强降水过程进行了分析。结果表明:低层辐合、高层辐散、中尺度切变以及中层气旋性环流的相互配合触发了该次特大暴雨过程;前期不稳定能量的积累为强降水的发生提供了十分有利的条件;垂直上升运动有利于水汽的输送,低层辐合、高层辐散的形势场配置有利于上升运动的维持和水汽的抬升;地面中尺度辐合线的移动演变对强降水的持续时间和降水落区有较好的指示作用;中低层垂直风切变的增大、速度场的辐合有利于强单体风暴的形成和发展;南海夏季风随台风活动的演变对于预报暴雨的发生时间和强度有较大的指示作用。     

导致“7.21”特大暴雨过程中水汽异常充沛的天气尺度动力过程分析研究

2012年7月21日北京发生了历史罕见的特大暴雨,最大累计降水量达到541 mm,最大雨强100.3 mm/h,强降水持续10多个小时,造成了巨大的损失。使用常规观测资料和NCEP再分析资料在讨论环境大气湿度条件与特大暴雨关系的基础上,分析了实现充沛的水汽远距离输送到华北并在北京上空积累的天气尺度动力过程及其形成的原因。结果表明,“7.21”特大暴雨产生在大气异常潮湿的环境中。在暴雨发生时,比湿最大值达到19 g/kg,而且,对流层中下层的比湿比北京区域性暴雨历史个例高40%。产生长时间强降水的重要原因是边界层以上高湿的特征在暴雨产生的过程中一直维持。充沛的水汽被一支从低纬度一直贯通到40°N附近的低空偏南气流从孟加拉湾和中国南海向北输送。偏南风持续增大形成低空急流,增大了水汽的输送。而且,随着急流核向东北方向移动逐渐靠近北京,在北京上空对流层低层产生了-17.7 g/（hPa·m²·s）异常强烈的水汽通量辐合。同时,高空强烈辐散与低空辐合的耦合不断加强,不仅增加了低层水汽在暴雨区汇集,而且也通过增强垂直速度将更多的潮湿空气向上输送,使高层大气湿度增大。通过上述两个天气尺度动力过程,实现了水汽的远距离输送,并在暴雨区上空强烈辐合,导致北京地区水汽异常充沛。输送水汽的偏南风持续增大的原因主要有两个：一是台风外围环流的影响;二是在海上副热带高压稳定维持的情况下,大陆上低压加强、东移,造成东西向气压梯度增大,在地转偏向力的作用下,南风增强。最后,得到了实现水汽远距离输送的天气尺度动力过程机理模型。     

伊犁河谷一次极端强降水事件水汽特征分析

2016年7月31日至8月1日,新疆伊犁河谷发生了一次极端强降水事件,多站突破降水极值。利用NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°和2.5°×2.5°再分析资料、中国地面卫星雷达三源融合逐小时降水产品、新疆地区常规观测资料、基于地基GPS观测的大气可降水量资料及基于拉格朗日方法的HYSPLIT轨迹模式结果,通过对水汽输送流函数、势函数、水汽输送轨迹和暴雨区水汽收支计算,结合伊犁河谷GPS观测分析,揭示了此次强降水期间的大尺度水汽输送、辐合特征及伊犁河谷局地水汽变化特点。结果表明:（1）强降水期间大西洋及红海均对伊犁河谷的水汽供应具有贡献,河谷处于水汽通量辐合区,向西开口的地形辐合和抬升为局地暴雨的发生提供有利的动力辐合条件。低纬度印度夏季风环流和中纬度大西洋向东输送的气流共同构成伊犁河谷极端降水天气的水汽输送通道,其中印度夏季风西南水汽输送主要集中在对流层低层,对流层中层水汽的输送以大西洋向东气流和低槽自身水汽输送为主。（2）HYSPLIT模拟结果表明暴雨区3000 m中纬度偏西路径的水汽输送最为强盛,偏南路径水汽源于阿拉伯海,对流层底层偏西、偏东路径和中层偏北路径水汽通过垂直运动补充对流层低层的水汽;5000 m水汽输送轨迹以偏西路径和低槽自身携带的水汽为主。（3）降水期间水汽集中在对流层低层,通过垂直输送项向高层输送;强降水时段暴雨区对流层低层南边界水汽流入量迅速增强,中高层水汽流入主要集中在西边界。（4）降水前槽前西南气流造成伊犁河谷测站GPS-PWV明显跃升,强降水时段受印度西南季风影响,测站PWV快速增高并维持,局地GPS-PWV的增加与大尺度水汽输送辐合增强有关。     

郑州“7·20”极端暴雨的水汽输送特征

在亚洲中高纬度“两槽一脊”的稳定环流形势下,西北太平洋副热带高压和台风“烟花”“查帕卡”等共同作用,引导水汽在郑州地区辐合,导致2021年7月19—21日郑州地区出现降水极值超过800 mm的罕见极端暴雨(以下简称为“郑州“7·20”极端暴雨”),造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失。针对此次郑州“7·20”极端暴雨过程,采用HYSPLIT模式追踪其水汽来源和输送特征。结果表明:郑州“7·20”极端暴雨的水汽主要来自北太平洋西部和南海北部,北太平洋西部的水汽受西北太平洋副热带高压和台风“烟花”的共同影响,南海北部的水汽受台风“查帕卡”和“烟花”的共同影响。水汽主要在850 hPa以下高度输送,而来自南海北部的水汽在向北输送的过程中逐渐抬升,临近郑州地区时接近700 hPa。基于HYSPLIT后向追踪的水汽轨迹进行定量计算,得到来自北太平洋西部和南海北部的水汽贡献分别约占73%和27%。     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

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正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.SUBMISSIONAll submitted