2013年四川省芦山“4.20”7.0级强烈地震触发滑坡

2013年4月20日,四川省芦山县发生了MS7.0地震.文中简要介绍了芦山地震的基本情况与芦山地震区历史地震及其相关地震滑坡情况.依据2008年汶川地震滑坡与地震动峰值加速度(PGA)的空间关系,对芦山地震滑坡大体分布范围进行了推测.根据地震滑坡分类学,将芦山地震滑坡分为破坏型滑坡、连贯型滑坡、流滑型滑坡3大类.其中,破坏型滑坡包括岩质崩塌、岩质滑动、岩质崩滑、土质崩塌、土质滑动等5类;连贯型滑坡包括土质坍塌与慢土流2类;流滑型滑坡为快速流滑.破坏型滑坡如岩质崩塌、岩石滑动、土质崩塌这3类是芦山地震滑坡中最常见的类型.基于震后可利用的高分辨率航片,初步解译得到3 883处滑坡位置点数据.最后,从余震对滑坡的影响,芦山地震滑坡与邻区地震滑坡对比分析,对后续基于高分辨率遥感影像的滑坡精细解译的启示等3个方面开展了分析与讨论.     

岩土边坡地震崩滑的三级评判预测

岩土边坡地震崩滑是最为严重的地质灾害之一,对岩土边坡地震崩滑的可能性提出及时有效的评价预测至关重要。本文提出并讨论了岩土边坡地震崩滑三级评判的思想及其实施方案,由主要考虑地震影响的初判,到以考虑控制地震崩滑的岩土边坡内、外因素为主的再判,最后是研究岩土边坡力学稳定性的详判,构成了一套由粗到细、分级筛选的有效方法。继续深入研究扩展该套方法的功能,使之适应多种灾害的评判预测工作,对于地质灾害防治手段和技术的发展具有战略意义。     

芦山地震崩滑灾害空间分布及相关问题探讨

由于逆断层作用,2013年芦山M_S 7.0地震诱发的崩滑地质灾害分布表现出了明显的上盘效应与方向效应。在震后应急科考中未发现发震断层的地表破裂带,然而灾区大量出现的地震诱发滑坡、崩塌,加之密集的余震分布、地震烈度调查结果等,提供了确定芦山地震宏观震中、地震动错动方向以及研究地震发震构造等的诸多线索。 统计结果表明,芦山地震诱发的滑坡、崩塌具有明显的优势滑动方向（135°～144°）,该方向揭示了地震断层的错动方向,与震源机制解反映的一致,大体垂直于发震断层的走向;从地震诱发崩塌、滑坡灾害点的分布与密度判断,宏观震中位于宝盛乡北,在仪器记录震中东北约3.6km处;从余震群分布、地震诱发滑坡分布特点及地震等烈度线等,结合以往强震如汶川地震等的调查经验,推测当震级足够大时,发震断层地表破裂带可能通过地质灾害、余震密集区东侧的边缘地带,总体平行于双石-大川断裂。另外,通过分析地层岩性与崩滑地形条件之间的关联性,发现崩滑灾害在某些地层岩性中易发,灾害点呈线性排列的原因是不同地层岩性之间抗风化能力的差异性,造成在地层分界线上形成线性陡崖或高坡度地带,使之在强震作用下容易发生崩塌、滑坡。     

青海玉树地震灾区地质灾害监测预警浅析

玉树7.1级地震不仅造成大量人员伤亡和财产损失,还造成岩体松动,并引发了大量崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害。通过监测获取了崩滑体变形信息,掌握了崩滑体演变过程和泥石流危险信息,为地质灾害分析评价、预测预报及工程治理等提供可靠的资料和科学依据。     

试论地震海啸的成因

经统计与研究,多数地震是不引发海啸的,故地震与海啸不存在直接的因果关系。这是因为引发地震海啸(特别是大的地震海啸)的直接原因,主要是海底地震所造成的次生的巨大体积的海底滑坡和崩塌,而不是海底地震时海底地面的同震错断与变形。因此,若未来震中附近存在不稳定海底滑坡和崩塌体,只要发生地震,不论震级大小与震源深浅,也不论震源类型(即倾滑或走滑)都可引起海底滑坡和崩塌,进而引发海啸。若未来震中附近不存在不稳定海底滑坡和崩塌体,再大震级的地震,即使是倾滑型地震也不能引发海啸     

昌马断裂带地震滑坡的期次与年代

昌马断裂带地震滑坡的期次与年代康来迅，王建荣（中国兰州７３００００国家地震局兰州地震研究所）主题词古地震；滑坡；地震崩塌；断裂带众所周知，当前对古地震的研究，大多是通过对断裂带上崩积楔的规模和期次的分析来实现的．本文则以昌马断裂带为例，由分析地震滑坡...     

古浪地震滑坡及其与断裂带的关系

本文根据航片解译和野外调查，首次介绍了古浪８级大震的地震滑坡的主要特征和分布情况，探讨了古浪地区地震滑坡与断裂带的关系，发现地震滑坡和崩塌明显受断裂构造的控制。     

古浪地震滑坡的分布规律和构造意义

１９２７年古浪地区发生了一次８级地震，地震时诱发了大量的滑坡和崩塌。本文根据野外调查和航片解译，分析了古浪地震滑坡的分布规律，探讨了古浪地震的地面破坏类型和滑坡滑动方向与区域构造应力场的关系。     

2014年鲁甸MS6.5地震后地质灾害发育分布特征

2014年云南鲁甸“8·03”M_S6.5地震造成了重大人员伤亡和财产损失,诱发了大量滑坡、崩塌、泥石流等地质灾害。基于对鲁甸县龙头山幅（G48E006006）地质灾害调查数据和对典型地质灾害的剖析,震后地质灾害发育分布有特征如下：（1）震后地质灾害较震前成倍增长,震前地质灾害多以中小型浅层崩滑为主,地震诱发了诸如甘家寨、红石岩等大型—特大型滑坡、崩塌,大量沟谷崩滑堆积物为泥石流储备了丰富的物源;（2）震中高烈度区域地质灾害密度大,沿发震断裂带NNE—NE向构造密集发育,震中区龙头山镇地质灾害发育最为集中;（3）地质灾害呈带状分布,明显受控于河流水系（牛栏江、沙坝河、龙泉河等）、公路（昭巧二级公路、沙乐公路）等线性地貌单元和线性工程,人类活动影响明显。     

地震诱发崩塌滑坡危险区初步预测

地震崩塌滑坡是地震破坏的主要形式之一，在以往国内外中强地震中均有发生，地震崩塌滑坡给社会经济、人民的生命财产带来巨大的破坏和损伤。表1列出了我国近年来发生的几次重大地震崩塌滑坡灾害。     

Empirical prediction of coseismic landslide dam formation

In this study we develop an empirical method to estimate the volume threshold for predicting coseismic landslide dam formation using landscape parameters obtained from digital elevation models (DEMs). We hypothesize that the potential runout and volume of landslides, together with river features, determine the likelihood of the formation of a landslide dam. To develop this method, a database was created by randomly selecting 140 damming and 200 non‐damming landslides from 501 landslide dams and > 60 000 landslides induced by the M_w 7.9 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. We used this database to parameterize empirical runout models by stepwise multivariate regression. We find that factors controlling landslide runout are landslide initiation volume, landslide type, internal relief (H) and the H/L ratio (between H and landslide horizontal distance to river, L). In order to obtain a first volume threshold for a landslide to reach a river, the runout regression equations were converted into inverse volume equations by taking the runout to be the distance to river. A second volume threshold above which a landslide is predicted to block a river was determined by the correlation between river width and landslide volume of the known damming landslides. The larger of these two thresholds was taken as the final damming threshold. This method was applied to several landslide types over a fine geographic grid of assumed initiation points in a selected catchment. The overall prediction accuracy was 97.4% and 86.0% for non‐damming and damming landslides, respectively. The model was further tested by predicting the damming landslides over the whole region, with promising results. We conclude that our method is robust and reliable for the Wenchuan event. In combination with pre‐event landslide susceptibility and frequency–size assessments, it can be used to predict likely damming locations of future coseismic landslides, thereby helping to plan emergency response. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

尼勒克地震滑坡的统计分析及初步研究

利用野外考察资料，对1812年新疆尼勒克地震的滑坡进行了统计分析和研究，认为尼勒克地震是一个典型的倾滑型地震，产生的地表破坏主要是地震滑坡，而且滑坡规模大，数量多，分布集中，其规模和分布密度与烈度成正比，有由震中向外变小、变稀的特点。     

Establishing a threshold for rainfall-induced landslides by a kinetic energy–duration relationship

Many investigators have attempted to define the threshold of landslide failure, that is, the level of the selected climatic variable above which a rainfall-induced landslide occurs. Intensity–duration (I–d) relationships are the most common type of empirical thresholds proposed in the literature for predicting landslide occurrence induced by rainfall. Recent studies propose the use of the kinetic power per unit volume of rainfall (J m⁻² mm⁻¹) to quantify the threshold of landslides induced by rainfall. In this paper, the relationship between rainfall duration and kinetic power corresponding to landslides triggered by rain was used to propose a new approach to define the threshold for predicting landslide occurrence. In particular, for the first time, a kinetic power per unit volume of rainfall–duration relationship is proposed for defining the minimum threshold needed for landslide failure. This new method can be applied using commonly used relationship for estimating the kinetic power per unit volume of rainfall and a new equation based on the measured raindrop size distribution. The applicability of this last method was tested using the data of rainfall intensity, duration and median volume diameter for 51 landslides in Taiwan. For the 51 landslides, the comparison between the measured pairs' kinetic power–duration and all selected relationships demonstrated that the equation based on the measured raindrop size distribution is the best method to define the landslide occurrence threshold, as it is both a process-oriented approach and is characterized by the best statistical performance. This last method has also the advantage to allow the forecasting of landslide hazard before the end of the rainfall event, since the rainfall kinetic power threshold value can be exceeded for a time interval less than the event duration.     

地震作用下黄土斜坡的稳定性分析预测

基于对中国西部黄土地区大量地震滑坡实例的考察分析,对影响黄土斜坡稳定性的各类因素尤其是地震因素进行了分析,讨论了黄土斜坡滑裂面的产生机制及几何特征．在此基础上提出了一种基于随机搜索法和遗传算法确定黄土斜坡最危险滑裂面,进而对区域黄土地震滑坡进行预测的方法．以回回川滑坡为例进行了验证．结果表明,该方法具有较好的效果和实用性．     

CONTROLLING FACTORS AND MECHANISMS OF INCOMPLETE OBSTRUCTION SEISMIC LANDSLIDE MOBILITY

The topography, occurrence mechanism and lithology are the important factors of landslide movement. The lithology, seismic intensity, geological structure and topography in the travel path of 215 incomplete obstruction landslides with volumes more than 10⁴m³ induced by Wenchuan earthquake were studied. Based on the classification of the factors established, we studied the factors influencing the movement distance of incomplete obstruction landslides. The following results are drawn. In the influence factors of topography in the travel path, the distance is largest in the straight valley topography, followed by the concave, ladder, turning valley, slope toe-type and slope-type landslides, in turn. The topography not only has remarkable influence on the distance of large-scale landslides, but also on the medium and small-scale landslides as well, which is the most important factor influencing the distance. The formation mechanism controlled by lithology, seismic intensity and geological structure has little influence on the mobility of medium-and small-scale landslides. For the large-scale landslides with volume more than 10⁶m³, the distance of landslide with medium hard rock is larger than landslides with hard and soft rock. In the seismic intensity Ⅸ to Ⅺ areas, the landslide distance decreases with intensity increasing, contrary to the distribution of landslide-point density and landslide-area density. The geological structure has influence on the slide aspect of landslides and occurrence mechanism, but the influence is not remarkable to the landslide movement distance.     

基于分形的巴谢河流域滑坡空间分布格局及其影响因素分析

定量研究区域滑坡空间分布规律,揭示不同类型滑坡的分布格局,对预测和评价滑坡危险性有重要指导意义。基于ArcGIS空间分析功能及分形理论的关联维数和盒计维数,分析了巴谢河流域黄土滑坡及黄土-泥岩滑坡的空间分布格局及其影响因素。结果表明：区域滑坡个体关联具有多尺度分形,黄土滑坡与黄土-泥岩滑坡分别在8 km、12 km尺度上存在阈值,滑坡个体在该阈值尺度前后呈现不同的相关程度,且黄土滑坡个体空间的关联程度和聚集程度均高于黄土-泥岩滑坡;黄土-泥岩滑坡分布范围广、形态复杂,其面积展布盒计维数大于黄土滑坡;地层岩性及坡度对两类滑坡分布格局的影响较大,沟壑密度次之,起伏度影响较小。     

analyses on the triggering facrors of large quantities of landslides in the upper reaches of the minjiang river,sichuan province

Over the past geological and historical period, tens of thousands of landslides occurred in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River, an area which is characterized by alpine valleys and has been densely populated over the past several hundreds of years. Discussing the triggering factor of these landslides is of great significance to geological hazard mitigation and prevention in this region. In this paper, we focus on four aspects of regional rainfall, shape features of landslide slopes, the corresponding relationship between landslide area and earthquake magnitude, and the recurring features of the reconstructed palaeoearthquake record at Diexi. Compared with those in Nepal, both mean seasonal rainfall accumulation and mean daily rainfall for the past 30 years are too low to reach the threshold values triggering landslides in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River. Secondly, landslides in the study area are usually absent of inner gorges(canyon topography)on the hillslope toes, which are confirmed in previous studies as typical features of landslides triggered by storms. Thirdly, wide distribution of the landslides in the study area supports our notion of earthquake-triggering because the landslides triggered by storms commonly distribute locally. Fourthly, periodicity analysis of the reconstructed palaeoearthquake record at Diexi provides a few cycles of twenty to thirty years, possibly corresponding to the earthquakes of magnitudes>5.0 or 5.5 which are believed to have caused soft-sediment deformation in the study area. In contrast, like the 2008 M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, the average recurrence interval of the large earthquakes in the study area is 2.6ka. They caused tens of thousands of landslides and provided more coarse silt particles for the nearby lake sediments at least in 330 years for each time. This is consistent with exponential increase of earthquake magnitude from large to medium and of the landslide area with the increased earthquake magnitude. To sum up, we suggest that tens of thousands of landslides in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River were most likely triggered by earthquakes instead of storms. This preliminary viewpoint needs further examination in the future.     

Modelling catchment‐scale shallow landslide occurrence and sediment yield as a function of rainfall return period

A model‐based method is proposed for improving upon existing threshold relationships which define the rainfall conditions for triggering shallow landslides but do not allow the magnitude of landsliding (i.e. the number of landslides) to be determined. The SHETRAN catchment‐scale shallow landslide model is used to quantify the magnitude of landsliding as a function of rainfall return period, for focus sites of 180 and 45 km² in the Italian Southern Alps and the central Spanish Pyrenees. Rainfall events with intensities of different return period are generated for a range of durations (1‐day to 5‐day) and applied to the model to give the number of landslides triggered and the resulting sediment yield for each event. For a given event duration, simulated numbers of landslides become progressively less sensitive to return period as return period increases. Similarly, for an event of given return period, landslide magnitude becomes less sensitive to event duration as duration increases. The temporal distribution of rainfall within an event is shown to have a significant impact on the number of landslides and the timing of their occurrence. The contribution of shallow landsliding to catchment sediment yield is similarly quantified as a function of the rainfall characteristics. Rainfall intensity–duration curves are presented which define different levels of landsliding magnitude and which advance our predictive capability beyond, but are generally consistent with, published threshold curves. The magnitude curves are relevant to the development of guidelines for landslide hazard assessment and forecasting. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

玉树地震滑坡分布调查及其特征与形成机制

2010年4月14日青海省玉树县发生了MS7.1地震.文中基于现场考察与遥感影像目视解译的方法,对玉树地震滑坡进行分析,并制作了玉树地震滑坡空间分布图.结果表明,该地震触发了约2 036处滑坡灾害,总面积约1.194km2;地震滑坡分布受主地表破裂控制作用强烈;滑坡类型多样,但以崩塌型滑坡为主;滑坡有5种成因机制:人工开挖坡脚型、地表水入渗致坡体震动滑动型、断裂错断震动型、震动型、后期冰雪融化或降雨入渗型;除地震主地表破裂外,还有许多坡体裂缝,主要分布在主地表破裂带SE端的SW盘,该部位在地震中受到了强烈的挤压作用.