Evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting Mesoscale Model for GABLS3: Impact of Boundary-Layer Schemes,Boundary Conditions and Spin-Up

We evaluated the performance of the three-dimensional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model, specifically the performance of the planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parametrizations. For this purpose, Cabauw tower observations were used, with the study extending beyond the third GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Study (GABLS3) one-dimensional model intercomparison. The WRF model (version 3.4.1) contains 12 different PBL parametrizations, most of which have been only partially evaluated. The GABLS3 case offers a clear opportunity to evaluate model performance, focusing on time series of near-surface weather variables, radiation and surface flux budgets, vertical structure and the nighttime inertial oscillation. The model results revealed substantial differences between the PBL schemes. Generally, non-local schemes tend to produce higher temperatures and higher wind speeds than local schemes, in particular, for nighttime. The WRF model underestimates the 2-m temperature during daytime (about \(2\) K) and substantially underestimates it at night (about \(4\) K), in contrast to the previous studies where modelled 2-m temperature was overestimated. Considering the 10-m wind speed, during the night turbulent kinetic energy based schemes tend to produce lower wind speeds than other schemes. In all simulations the sensible and latent heat fluxes were well reproduced. For the net radiation and the soil heat flux we found good agreement with daytime observations but underestimations at night. Concerning the vertical profiles, the selected non-local PBL schemes underestimate the PBL depth and the low-level jet altitude at night by about 50 m, although with the correct wind speed. The latter contradicts most previous studies and can be attributed to the revised stability function in the Yonsei University PBL scheme. The local, turbulent kinetic energy based PBL schemes estimated the low-level jet altitude and strength more accurately. Compared to the observations, all model simulations show a similar structure for the potential temperature, with a consistent cold bias ( \(\approx \) 2 K) in the upper PBL. In addition to the sensitivity to the PBL schemes, we studied the sensitivity to technical features such as horizontal resolution and domain size. We found a substantial difference in the model performance for a range of 12, 18 and 24 h spin-up times, longer spin-up time decreased the modelled wind speed bias, but it strengthened the negative temperature bias. The sensitivity of the model to the vertical resolution of the input and boundary conditions on the model performance is confirmed, and its influence appeared most significant for the non-local PBL parametrizations.     

Surface and Mixed-Layer Variance Methods to Estimate Regional Sensible Heat Flux at the Surface

Turbulence measurements in the lower half of the convective boundary layer (CBL), which includes both mixed layer and surface layer, were carried out with five sonic anemometers mounted on a 213-m tower over a complex flat suburban area with patches of forest, agricultural land, houses and buildings. Also made were radiosoundings of temperature, humidity and wind speed, to determine the CBL height. The sonic anemometer data of wind speed and temperature were processed to derive the second-moment turbulent statistics and were analyzed to investigate the applicability of variance methods to estimate regional surface fluxes of sensible heat. It was found that the temperature variances in the lower mixed layer, coupled with universal functions, produced sensible heat fluxes H over the area with an rms error of the order of 40 Wm^-2 when compared with H values derived from the eddy correlation method. The variance of the vertical wind speed did not produce as good a result. In contrast, the surface-layer temperature variances yielded H values with rms error of the order of 20 Wm^-2, even though the underlying surface was non-uniform and highly non-isothermal, above which enhanced temperature variances could be suspected.     

Diabatic wind and temperature profiles obtained from a 100 m tower: A statistical comparison of model performances

More than 8000 10-min profiles of wind and temperature obtained during an extensive field experiment have been analyzed. The study was carried out in the environs of Valladolid (Spain) where a 100-m and a 6-m meteorological tower are located. Less than 20% of data were discarded due to equipment failure. Because of its exceptional flatness, the site is almost ideal for model performance comparisons.Predicted profiles of wind speed and potential temperature at 12, 26, 51, and 100 m heights were obtained using the methods proposed by Berkowicz and Prahm (1982) and San José (1983) based on values observed on a 6 m tower. Statistical t, F, and R tests were used to determine bias, scatter and correlation. The data were classified according to atmospheric stratification and height above ground. Finally, a determination was made of the predicted wind speeds and potential temperatures that fell within the 1 and 20% confidence ranges centered at the measured value. San José's method performed better than did that of Berkowicz and Prahm for the temperature profiles in both unstable and stable conditions. However, no significant differences were found for the wind speed profiles.     

Estimating heat fluxes by merging profile formulae and the energy budget with a variational technique

A variational technique (VT) is applied to estimate surface sensible and latent heat fluxes based on observations of air temperature, wind speed, and humidity, respectively, at three heights (1 m, 4 m, and 10 m), and the surface energy and radiation budgets by the surface energy and radiation system (SERBS). The method fully uses all information provided by the measurements of air temperature, wind, and humidity profiles, the surface energy budget, and the similarity profile formulae as well. Data collected at Feixi experiment station installed by the China Heavy Rain Experiment and Study (HeRES) Program are used to test the method. Results show that the proposed technique can overcome the well-known unstablility problem that occurs when the Bowen method becomes singular; in comparison with the profile method, it reduces both the sensitivities of latent heat fluxes to observational errors in humidity and those of sensible heat fluxes to observational errors in temperature, while the estimated heat fluxes approximately satisfy the surface energy budget. Therefore, the variational technique is more reliable and stable than the two conventional methods in estimating surface sensible and latent heat fluxes.     

北京北郊冬季大风过程湍流通量演变特征的分析研究

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所325 m气象观测塔1993年12月～1994年1月大气边界层实验资料, 计算分析了大风过境过程中47 m和120 m高度湍流通量演变特征及其影响因子, 以及与风速、 稳定度等参数的关系。结果表明: 大风过程对近地面层的物质能量输送有着重要影响, 大风之前出现短时间动量上传和热量下传; 大风过程中的湍流通量数值明显高于过境后, 水平方向湍流通量数值和能量增加幅度大于垂直方向; 当风速大于临界值5 m/s时, 湍流通量与风速、 湍流动能的相关迅速增大; 湍流谱特征表现为湍流能量的低频部分增加、 湍流谱曲线变宽; 大风能强烈影响近地面层的能量收支。     

基于三台测风激光雷达的大气湍流和三维风场研究

为了获取大气湍流和空间三维风场结构,利用3台同型号的测风激光雷达开展协同观测试验。（1）利用虚拟铁塔协同观测技术开展大气湍流探测,与香河102 m铁塔安装的三维超声风速仪观测结果做对比,32 m处高频（10 Hz）风速的相关系数高达0.92,平均误差为0.77 m/s,均方根误差为0.41 m/s;大气湍流强度（TKE）的相关系数高达0.99,平均误差为?0.02 m2/s2,均方根误差为0.08 m2/s2,并且协同观测的高频风速与三维超声风速仪的观测结果具有相同的频谱结构。（2）利用扫描协同观测技术开展三维风场探测,与铁塔上的常规测风设备相比,其90 m高度处的水平风速和风向的相关系数分别为0.92和0.93,平均误差为?0.41 m/s和0°,均方根误差为0.73 m/s和34°。相比于单台测风激光雷达,基于3台测风激光雷达协同观测技术具有一定的优势:不需要风场水平均匀的假设、探测精度更高等。但其对观测环境的要求较高:观测路径上不能有遮挡、观测必须协同等。在科研业务应用中,需要根据实际的观测需求合理制定观测方案。      

深圳356米气象塔观测数据的质量控制方法和空气动力学参数研究

气象高塔数据资料弥足珍贵, 对其进行质量控制将为后续科学研究和业务工作的开展提供便利; 此外, 利用塔基观测资料计算空气动力学参数有助于校正模式空气动力学参数理论值。对2017-2018年深圳356 m气象梯度观测塔共13层的每10 s风速、风向、相对湿度、温度探测资料进行数据质量控制, 基于莫宁-奥布霍夫相似理论和数据质量控制后的气象梯度观测塔近地层(10 m、20 m、40 m、50 m和80 m) 1分钟平均的风温资料, 利用最小二乘法拟合迭代计算了近中性条件下深圳气象梯度观测塔下垫面空气动力学粗糙度(z₀)和零平面位移(d)。结果表明:深圳气象梯度观测塔的气象探测资料数据质量很高, 连续两年平均数据缺失率为1.28%, 数据错误率为0.01%。近中性边界层条件下, 深圳气象梯度观测塔下垫面空气动力学粗糙度均值为0.35 m, 零平面位移均值为5.33 m, 结果合理可信。研究表明空气动力学参数受下垫面非均匀性、植株柔软性、气流来向、风速等的共同影响。      

Evaluation of the Forecast Accuracy of Near-Surface Temperature and Wind in Northwest China Based on the WRF Model

This study investigated the performance of the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in predicting near-surface atmospheric temperature and wind for a complex underlying surface in Northwest China in June and December 2015. The spatial distribution of the monthly average bias errors in the forecasts of 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed is analyzed first. It is found that the forecast errors for 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed in June are strongly correlated with the terrain distribution. However, this type of correlation is not apparent in December, perhaps due to the inaccurate specification of the surface albedo and freezing–thawing process of frozen soil in winter in Northwest China in the WRF model. In addition, the WRF model is able to reproduce the diurnal variation in 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed, although with weakened magnitude. Elevations and land-use types have strong influences on the forecast of near-surface variables with seasonal variations. The overall results imply that accurate specification of the complex underlying surface and seasonal changes in land cover is necessary for improving near-surface forecasts over Northwest China.     

Meshless Surface Wind Speed Field Reconstruction Based on Machine Learning

We propose a novel machine learning approach to reconstruct meshless surface wind speed fields, i.e., to reconstruct the surface wind speed at any location, based on meteorological background fields and geographical information. The random forest method is selected to develop the machine learning data reconstruction model (MLDRM-RF) for wind speeds over Beijing from 2015–19. We use temporal, geospatial attribute and meteorological background field features as inputs. The wind speed field can be reconstructed at any station in the region not used in the training process to cross-validate model performance. The evaluation considers the spatial distribution of and seasonal variations in the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the reconstructed wind speed field across Beijing. The average RMSE is 1.09 m s^?1, considerably smaller than the result (1.29 m s^?1) obtained with inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. Finally, we extract the important feature permutations by the method of mean decrease in impurity (MDI) and discuss the reasonableness of the model prediction results. MLDRM-RF is a reasonable approach with excellent potential for the improved reconstruction of historical surface wind speed fields with arbitrary grid resolutions. Such a model is needed in many wind applications, such as wind energy and aviation safety assessments.     

复杂下垫面风电场风速数值模拟及误差特征

利用WRF模式分别对沿海及山地条件下风电场风速进行高分辨数值模拟,并对其误差特征进行分析,结果表明:1)WRF模式对复杂地形条件下的风速模拟性能良好,模拟值较好地体现天气尺度的周期变化;2)沿海及山地条件下模拟与观测的误差特征各不相同。模式静态数据未能显现沿海的小岛,并且低估了山地测风塔所在的海拔,导致沿海平均模拟风速偏大,山地平均模拟风速偏小;3)分析不同风向的归一化均方根误差,沿海陆风情况下,下垫面相对复杂,误差明显增大;沿海海风情况下,下垫面均一,误差明显减小;4)仅作单个风电场周边数百平方千米的模拟,采用一台12核的服务器进行WRF模式的并行计算可满足48 h短期预测的时效性。仅仅提高模拟的网格分辨率,并不一定能提升模拟的准确性。     

Observations Of Nocturnal Drainage Flow In A Shallow Gully

The formation of cold air drainage flows in a shallow gully is studied during CASES-99 (Cooperative Atmosphere-Surface Exchange Study). Fast and slow response wind and temperature measurements were obtained on an instrumented 10-m tower located in the gully and from a network of thermistors and two-dimensional sonic anemometers, situated across the gully. Gully flow formed on clear nights even with significant synoptic flow. Large variations in surface temperature developed within an hour after sunset and in situ cooling was the dominant factor in wind sheltered locations. The depth of the drainage flow and the height of the down-gully wind speed maximum were found to be largest when the external wind speed above the gully flow is less than 2 m s^-1. The shallow drainage current is restricted to a depth of a few metres, and is deepest when the stratification is stronger and the external flow is weaker. During the night the drainage flow breaks down, sometimes on several occasions, due to intermittent turbulence and downward fluxes of heat and momentum. The near surface temperature may increase by 6 ° C in less than 30 min due to the vertical convergence of downward heat flux. The mixing events are related to acceleration of the flow above the gully flow and decreased Richardson number. These warming events also lead to warming of the near surface soil and reduction of the upward soil heat flux. To examine the relative importance of different physical mechanisms that could contribute to the rapid warming, and to characterize the turbulence generated during the intermittent turbulent periods, the sensible heat budget is analyzed and the behaviour of different turbulent parameters is discussed.     

Turbulence Observations Above a Smooth Melting Surface on the Greenland Ice Sheet

Measurements of profiles and turbulent fluxes havebeen made over a smooth, melting surface on thesouthwestern part of the Greenland ice sheet in July1991. For a reference height of 0.8 m, and fluxmeasurements at 4 m and 13 m, the best values for theroughness lengths are 3 × 10-4 m for wind speed,2 × 10-6 m for temperature, and 5 × 10-4 mfor moisture. The uncertainty in the correspondingexchange coefficients is about 10%. The roughnesslength for temperature (zT) is much smaller than expectedfrom theory, as was also found in a number of earlierinvestigations. The possibility is considered thatabsorption of shortwave radiation by aerosol particlesaccumulating near the surface lowers thezT values. Consequently, zT using lower measurementheights should probably be close to z0.However, evidence for this remains rather indirect.Further, it is shown that reliable results for thesensible heat flux can be obtained using the productof the observed standard deviation for temperature fluctuationsand wind speed.     

雷达资料快速更新四维变分同化中增加地面资料同化对强对流临近数值预报的影响

基于雷达资料快速更新四维变分同化（RR4DVar）技术和三维数值云模式发展的快速更新雷达四维变分分析系统（VDRAS）,通过在系统中加入地面自动气象站观测资料的同化方法,对发生在北京地区的10个强对流过程开展了地面资料同化的高分辨率模拟分析和检验评估,并与已经业务使用的地面资料融合方法进行对比。研究结果发现,地面观测资料同化使边界层1 km高度以下的分析场改善最为明显,风速和风向的均方根误差分别平均降低0.1 m/s和7.2°,温度的均方根误差降低0.2℃。模式最低层100 m高度的风速均方根误差降低0.5 m/s,风速的误差随高度上升逐渐增大。模式最低层风向的均方根误差降低15.5°,温度的均方根误差降低0.4℃,且1.5 km高度以下的温度偏差都减小。区域内地面10 m高风速的均方根误差平均降低0.2 m/s,风向的均方根误差降低10.8°,地面2 m气温的偏差也降低。随着预报时效的延长,地面温度和风场的误差不断增大,但地面资料同化方法在一定程度上可以提高1 h内地面气象要素的预报效果。对2019年5月17日北京地区局地强对流新生和增强过程的详细分析表明,地面自动气象站观测资料的同化方法相对于融合,可以通过更细致准确地分析低层大气的热动力特征,改善低层气象要素的预报效果。在此基础上,通过探究对流单体的局地触发机理发现,海风锋辐合线与城市的相互作用一定程度上影响了对流的局地新生和发展,该同化方法可以进一步提高北京地区局地突发强对流的临近数值预报能力。      

南疆沙漠腹地大气边界层气象要素廓线分析

利用塔中80m观测塔梯度系统采集的2006年8月、10月和2007年1月、4月的风、温度、湿度资料,结合气象站的同步气象资料,对南疆沙漠腹地近地层四季的晴天平均风速、温度、湿度廓线分布特征进行分析。结果表明,晴天平均风速白天随高度升高增加缓慢,夜间较快,低层风速白天比夜间大,高层则白天比夜间小,春夏季风速较大;四季平均温度廓线表现为夜间辐射型、早上过渡型、白天日射型和傍晚过渡型等四种类型,早、晚过渡时间四季各有不同,日最低、最高温度出现时间四季则相差不大;冬季夜间比湿随高度升高而增大,整个80m近地层表现为逆湿状态,其他季节逆湿一般出现在0．5—1m、1～2m、32—47m、63—80m等4个层次上,各逆湿层出现的时间各季节有所差异。     

Observations and Modelling of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over Sea-Ice in a Svalbard Fjord

Sonic anemometer and profile mast measurements made in Wahlenbergfjorden, Svalbard Arctic archipelago, in May 2006 and April 2007 were employed to study the atmospheric boundary layer over sea-ice. The turbulent surface fluxes of momentum and sensible heat were calculated using eddy correlation and gradient methods. The results showed that the literature-based universal functions underestimated turbulent mixing in strongly stable conditions. The validity of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory was questionable for cross-fjord flow directions and in the presence of mesoscale variability or topographic effects. The aerodynamic roughness length showed a dependence on the wind direction. The mean roughness length for along-fjord wind directions was (2.4 ± 2.6) × 10⁻⁴ m, whereas that for cross-fjord directions was (5.4 ± 2.8) × 10⁻³ m. The thermal stratification and turbulent fluxes were affected by the synoptic situation with large differences between the 2 years. Channelling effects and drainage flows occurred especially during a weak large-scale flow. The study periods were simulated applying the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with 1-km horizontal resolution in the finest domain. The results for the 2-m air temperature and friction velocity were good, but the model failed to reproduce the spatial variability in wind direction between measurement sites 3 km apart. The model suggested that wind shear above the stable boundary layer provided a non-local source for the turbulence observed.     

2010年春季北京地区强沙尘暴过程的微气象学特征

利用北京大学校园地区PM10质量浓度观测资料、中国科学院大气物理研究所325m气象塔气象要素梯度和湍流观测资料,分析了北京地区2010年3月20～22日两次强沙尘暴过程微气象学要素和沙尘参量的时空演变以及湍流输送特征,为理解北京地区强沙尘暴天气沙尘输送规律和微气象学特征提供参考。结果表明:3月20～22日强沙尘暴过程前后不同高度温度先升后降,气压和相对湿度则相反。强沙尘暴来临时,高层风速先迅速增大,低层风速增加略有滞后,风切变明显加强,PM10浓度最大值和风速极大值出现时间较吻合。强沙尘暴过境时,不同高度向下的湍流动量输送、向上的湍流热量输送和湍流动能明显加强。与3月21日非沙尘暴日相比,强沙尘暴过程湍流动量通量增加,有利于沙尘粒子的水平和垂直输送过程;由于冷锋过境,水平热通量增大;垂直热通量因白天温度垂直梯度减小而减小,夜间因逆温层被破坏而增加;水平湍流动能对湍流动能占主要贡献,垂直湍流动能仅占水平湍流动能的10%～25%。     

Surface-Layer Characteristics in the Stable Boundary Layer with Strong and Weak Winds

An extensive meteorological dataset obtained from the plumevalidation experiment conducted by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) atKincaid during 1980–1981 is analysed for studying the characteristic differences in thesurface-layer parameters in strong and weak wind stable conditions. The surface-layerparameters are computed using the similarity functions _m and _h proposed byBeljaars and Holtslag. The weak winds are characterized using the geostrophic wind speedas well as the wind speed at the 10-m level. The surface fluxes are found to be finitein weak wind conditions.Empirical formulations for the eddy diffusivities of momentum(K_M) and heat (K_H), and drag (C_D) and heat exchange (C_H) coefficients, as powerlaw functions of the bulk Richardson number (Ri_B), are proposed under both strong andweak wind conditions. Results are close to those based on observations taken from the IndianInstitute of Technology low wind diffusion experiment, the Land surface processes experiment,the Hanford diffusion experiment, the Cabauw field experiment and the Cooperative Atmospheric SurfaceExchange Study 1999 (CASES-99) experiment. In addition, the fluxes obtained fromthe proposed empirical relations are in good agreement with those based on similarity theory as wellas the turbulence measurements taken from the CASES-99 experiment.     

Observation of wind shear during evening transition and an estimation of submicron aerosol concentrations in Beijing using a Doppler wind lidar

The wind speed and direction measured over six months by a Doppler wind lidar (Windcube-8) were compared with wind cup anemometers mounted on the 325-m Beijing meteorological tower (BMT). Five mountain–plain wind cases characterized by wind direction shear were selected based on the high-frequency (1.1 s) wind profile of the Windcube-8 and analyzed with 1-h mesoscale surface weather charts. Also analyzed was the relationship between in-situ PM₁ (aerodynamic diameter ≤ 1 μm) concentrations measured at 260 m on BMT and the carrier-to-noise ratio (CNR) of the co-located Windcube-8. The results showed that the 10-min averaged wind speed and direction were highly correlated (R = 0.96–0.99) at three matched levels (80, 140, and 200 m). The evening transition duration was 1–3 h, with an average wind speed of 1 m s^–1 at 80 m above the ground. In addition, there was a zero horizontal-wind-speed zone along the wind direction shear line, and in one case, the wind speed was characterized by a Kelvin–Helmholtz gravity wave. The variability of the PM₁ concentrations was captured by the CNR of the Windcube-8 in a fair weather period without the long-range transport of dust.     

The Summer Surface Energy Balance of the High Antarctic Plateau

The summertime surface energy balance (SEB) at Kohnen station, situated on the high Antarctic plateau (75°00′ S, 0°04′ E, 2892m above sea level) is presented for the period of 8 January to 9 February 2002. Shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes were measured directly; the former was corrected for problems associated with the cosine response of the instrument. Sensible and latent heat fluxes were calculated using the bulk method, and eddy-correlation measurements and the modified Bowen ratio method were used to verify these calculated fluxes. The calculated sub-surface heat flux was checked by comparing calculated to measured snow temperatures. Uncertainties in the measurements and energy-balance calculations are discussed. The general meteorological conditions were not extraordinary during the period of the experiment, with a mean 2-m air temperature of −27.5°C, specific humidity of 0.52×10⁻³kg kg⁻¹ and wind speed of 4.1ms⁻¹. The experiment covered the transition period from Antarctic summer (positive net radiation) to winter (negative net radiation), and as a result the period mean net radiation, sensible heat, latent heat and sub-surface heat fluxes were small with values of −1.1, 0.0, −1.0 and 0.7 Wm⁻², respectively. Daily mean net radiation peaked on cloudy days (16 Wm⁻²) and was negative on clear-sky days (minimum of −19 W m⁻²). Daily mean sensible heat flux ranged from −8 to +10 Wm⁻², latent heat flux from −4 to 0 Wm⁻² and sub-surface heat flux from −8 to +7 Wm⁻².     

A note on surface layer parameterizations in the weather research and forecast model

Two surface layer parameterization schemes along with five planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) are analyzed in order to evaluate the performance of the WRF model in simulating the surface variables and turbulent fluxes over an Indian sub-continent region. These surface layer schemes are based on the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University—National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) parameterization; (a) Old MM5 scheme having Businger-Dyer similarity functions and (b) revised MM5 scheme utilizing the functions that are valid for full ranges of atmospheric stabilities. The study suggests that each PBL scheme can reproduce the diurnal variation of 2 m temperature, momentum flux and sensible heat flux irrespective of the surface layer scheme used for the simulations. However, a comparison of model-simulated values of surface variables and turbulent fluxes with observed values suggests that each PBL scheme is found to systematically over-estimate the nocturnal 2 m temperature and 10 m wind speed with both the revised and old schemes during stable conditions.