卫星钟差长期预报模型的研究与改进

在传统的二次多项式模型和灰色模型的基础上提出了一种新的组合模型来预报卫星钟差.首先利用灰色模型估计的残差建立二次多项式模型,预报以后历元的残差修正值,然后和灰色模型的预报结果相加.并分析了利用不同历元个数的残差建模所得组合模型的精度,将组合模型与灰色模型、二次多项式模型的预报精度进行了比较.结果表明:组合模型相对于灰色...     

基于非迭代海-气通量算法的蒸发波导预测模型研究

蒸发波导易发生在海洋等水体之上.为了深入研究蒸发波导预测模型的诊断预报技术,本研究依据目前最新的非迭代海-气通量算法,建立了非迭代通量算法蒸发波导预测模型-NEW模型,进而对新模型进行了敏感性试验,且用我国近海试验数据进行了检验.最后将NEW模型与目前使用广泛、效果较好的4种蒸发波导模型(即P-J模型、Babin模型、NPS模型和伪折射率模型)进行了对比分析,得到了不同模型蒸发波导高度随气象海洋要素变化的规律,结果表明非迭代通量算法模型与传统模型对不同海洋气象要素的敏感性响应是一致的.不稳定层结条件下NEW模型对蒸发波导的诊断结果接近于Babin模型和NPS模型,而稳定条件下略高于NPS模型.试验表明NEW模型可以有效地诊断预报蒸发波导.本研究系统阐述了非迭代通量算法模型的建立和适用情况,为蒸发波导预测诊断算法的更新和模型发展提出了新的思路.     

海洋动床物理模型试验布置模型沙的相似条件

动床模型试验布置模型沙是模拟泥沙运动试验中的关键。模型布置模型沙之前,依据相似理论,按照一定的几何比尺选择适当的模型沙,这对于确保试验的可靠性、稳定性和提高试验精度尤为重要。本文以一港口物理模型试验为实例说明模型沙选择和布置模型沙对模拟泥沙运动的重要性。     

深圳香港海域浪潮耦合模型的建立及其应用

以河口海岸海洋模型ECOM和第三代海浪模型SWAN为基础,以全球天文潮预报模式TPXO6.2和台风参数模型风场及气压场作为驱动,采用海洋-陆架区-海岸三重嵌套网格,建立了适用于深圳香港水域天文潮-风暴潮-台风浪耦合模型。以0814号台风"黑格比"为算例,进行了耦合模拟计算,计算结果显示,天文潮、风暴潮位和浪高与实测值符合良好,天文潮的均方根误差小于0.15 m,有效波高误差0.9 m,风暴高潮位平均误差0.23 m;并分析了风暴潮位和波浪的相互影响,以及深港水域波浪场的分布,4 m水深考虑风暴潮位影响有效波高提高0.40 m,沿岸波浪增水在0.20 m以内。     

面向海洋观测与模式数据的客户端软件设计与实现

针对面向海洋观测与模式数据的客户端软件开发工作量大和通用性低的问题,结合传感器观测数据和模式数据的特点,提出了面向海洋观测与模式数据的客户端软件设计模型,通过原型系统验证了模型设计的有效性。该设计模型对于海洋观测与模式数据客户端软件的高效率开发具有重要作用。     

北斗三号BDGIM模型的适用性分析

随着北斗三号系统的建立完善,北斗系统的单频电离层模型从BDSKlob模型发展为BDGIM模型,适用范围扩展至全球。为深入分析BDGIM模型在磁暴期间的精度,分别利用磁暴期和磁平静期观测数据,计算BDGIM模型、BDSKlob模型以及GPSKlob模型在磁平静期与磁暴期间改正效果,分析BDGIM模型的精度和适用性。在磁平静期BDGIM模型平均改正率最高,在磁暴期3种模型精度均有所下降,BDGIM模型和BDSKlob模型的均方根误差变化较小,均在0.7TECU以内,GPSKlob模型变化最大,为1.88TECU。结果表明在磁平静期和磁暴期,BDGIM模型的精度与适用性均优于另外两种模型。     

两代耦合海浪的地球系统模式FIO-ESM全球碳循环过程发展

自然资源部第一海洋研究所地球系统模式FIO-ESM是自主研发的、以耦合海浪模式为特色的地球系统模式,包括物理气候模式和全球碳循环模式。该模式从第一代版本FIO-ESM v1.0发展到第二代版本FIO-ESM v2.0,其物理气候模式和全球碳循环模式都取得了改进与提升。FIO-ESM v2.0全球碳循环模式的海洋碳循环模式由v1.0的营养盐驱动模型升级为NPZD（Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus）型的海洋生态动力学碳循环模型,陆地碳循环模型由v1.0的简单的光能利用率模型升级为考虑碳氮相互作用的碳氮（CN）耦合模型;大气碳循环模型仍为CO₂的传输过程,考虑了化石燃料排放、土地利用排放等人为CO₂排放量。在物理过程参数化方案方面,FIO-ESM v2.0全球碳循环过程在考虑浪致混合作用对生物地球化学参数的作用的基础上,增加了海表面温度的日变化过程对海-气CO₂通量的影响。已有数值模拟试验结果表明,FIO-ESM v2.0在考虑了更加复杂的碳循环过程后仍具有较好的全球碳循环模拟能力,为进一步开展海洋与全球碳循环研究提供了更有力的支撑工具,从而更好地服务于国家的双碳目标。     

Study on Rigid-Flexible Coupling Effects of Floating Offshore Wind Turbines

In order to account for rigid-flexible coupling effects of floating offshore wind turbines, a nonlinear rigid-flexible coupled dynamic model is proposed in this paper. The proposed nonlinear coupled model takes the higher-order axial displacements into account, which are usually neglected in the conventional linear dynamic model. Subsequently,investigations on the dynamic differences between the proposed nonlinear dynamic model and the linear one are conducted. The results demonstrate that the stiffness of the turbine blades in the proposed nonlinear dynamic model increases with larger overall motions but that in the linear dynamic model declines with larger overall motions.Deformation of the blades in the nonlinear dynamic model is more reasonable than that in the linear model as well.Additionally, more distinct coupling effects are observed in the proposed nonlinear model than those in the linear model. Finally, it shows that the aerodynamic loads, the structural loads and global dynamic responses of floating offshore wind turbines using the nonlinear dynamic model are slightly smaller than those using the linear dynamic model. In summary, compared with the conventional linear dynamic model, the proposed nonlinear coupling dynamic model is a higher-order dynamic model in consideration of the rigid-flexible coupling effects of floating offshore wind turbines, and accord more perfectly with the engineering facts.     

多光谱遥感影像的两种浅海水深反演模型对比与分析

利用WorldView-2高分辨率卫星影像,以南海北岛附近海域为研究区,研究了两种水深反演模型——对数变换模型(Stumpf 2003)和双波段线性回归模型(Lyzenga 1985)。分析了不同底质情况下水深与各波段的相关性,并利用L-M(Levenberg-Marquardt)算法求解模型参数,然后对两种模型反演的水深结果的精度进行了对比分析。对于珊瑚底质,Lyzenga 1985模型水深反演的决定系数和均方根误差分别为0.902和1.651,均优于Stumpf 2003模型(0.882,6.421);对于砂质底质,Lyzenga 1985模型水深反演的决定系数和均方根误差分别为0.897和0.529,均优于Stumpf 2003模型(0.779,0.723)。可见,在水体清澈的珊瑚底质和砂质底质区域,Lyzenga 1985模型的水深反演精度均优于Stumpf 2003模型,Lyzenga 1985模型普适性更强,能够呈现出较为稳定的反演效果。     

一个嵌套于MM5的高分辨率大气边界层模式

以ARPS中尺度大气模式的边界层模块为基础,发展一高分辨率的大气边界层模式并将其嵌套于中尺度大气模式MM5,利用MM5的积分结果作为运行边界层模式的初值和边界强迫外参数,模式的10m风速结果和海上平台观测值相比有很好的一致性,模式的其他结果接近中尺度MM5的结果.该模式与MM5模式嵌套能得到更高分辨率的大气边界层的气象要素和参数的预报结果,提供高分辨率海洋模式的大气强迫或与其耦合,从而弥补目前大气模式和海洋模式的分辨率相差太大的不足.     

大气-海洋-海浪耦合同化模式在台风过程模拟中的应用

基于MCT耦合器,利用中尺度大气模型WRF、海洋模型FVCOM和第三代海浪模型SWAN,实现大气、海洋和海浪的三者实时耦合计算,同时采用卫星微波辐射资料AMSU-A,通过WRF大气模式的资料同化模块WRFDA,实现对风场模拟的连续同化,从而建立起大气-海洋-海浪耦合与卫星数据同化的W-F-S-A耦合同化模式。将该模型应用于2014年台风“威马逊”的数值模拟,并与其他模型进行比较。结果表明,W-F-S-A耦合同化模式对于台风路径和风速的模拟结果优于单独耦合和单独同化结果,并且可以较好地模拟上层海洋对台风的响应特征。     

基于移动曲面模型的GPS高程拟合

移动曲面模型具有连续性函数模型和离散性函数模型的双重特征,是GPS高程拟合模型中一个比较有应用优势的模型。推导出了该模型的一般形式,并用该模型进行了一个实例计算,效果良好。     

水下溢油数值模拟研究

基于Lagrange积分法和Lagrange粒子追踪法建立了一个水下溢油数值模型。该溢油模型由两个子模型组成:羽流动力模型和对流扩散模型,其中羽流动力模型用以模拟溢油的喷发阶段和浮力羽流阶段;对流扩散模型用以模拟溢油的对流扩散阶段。通过数值实验,结合实验室水槽实验和水下溢油现场实验的观测资料进行模型验证。实验结果表明,模拟结果与观测资料一致性较好,从而验证了本文溢油模型的合理性和准确性;羽流动力模型为对流扩散模型提供源,海流、海水的垂向密度结构和油滴的直径分布是影响溢油在对流扩散阶段运动和分布的主要因素。     

Comparison of existing poroelastic models for wave damping in a porous seabed

Mechanism of wave–seabed interaction has been extensively studied by coastal geotechnical engineers in recent years. Numerous poro-elastic models have been proposed to investigate the mechanism of wave propagation on a seabed in the past. The existing poro-elastic models include drained model, consolidation model, Coulomb-damping model, and full dynamic model. However, to date, the difference between the existing models is unclear. In this paper, the fully dynamic poro-elastic model for the wave–seabed interaction will be derived first. Then, the existing models will be reduced from the proposed fully dynamic model. Based on the numerical comparisons, the applicable range of each model is also clarified for the engineering practice.     

Large Eddy Simulation for Plunge Breaker and Sediment Suspension

Breaking waves are a powerful agent for generating turbulence that plays an important role in many fluid dynamical processes, particularly in the mixing of materials. Breaking waves can dislodge sediment and throw it into suspension, which will then be carried by wave-induced steady current and tidal flow. In order to investigate sediment suspension by breaking waves, a numerical model based on large-eddy-simulation (LES) is developed. This numerical model can be used to simulate wave breaking and sediment suspension. The model consists of a free-surface model using the surface marker method combined with a two-dimensional model that solves the flow equations. The turbulence and the turbulent diffusion are described by a large-eddy-simulation (LES) method where the large turbulence features are simulated by solving the flow equations, and a subgrid model represents the small-scale turbulence that is not resolved by the flow model. A dynamic eddy viscosity subgrid scale stress model has been used for the     

A Numerical Model of Coastal Processes of Sand Beaches Based on Long-Term Wave Series

A numerical model of shoreline change of sand beaches based on long-term field wave data is proposed, the explicit and implicit finite difference forms of the model are described, and an application of the model is presented. Results of the application indicate that the model is sensitive to the order of the input wave data, and that the effects of long-term wave series and the effects of the mean annual wave conditions on the model are different. Instead of a single wave condition, the wave series will make the calibration and the verification of the model more practical and the results of the model more reasonable.     

Using the ensemble Kalman filter to estimate multiplicative model parameters

This paper proposes a simple approach to estimating multiplicative model parameters using the ensemble square root filter. The basic idea, following previous studies, is to augment the state vector by the model parameters. While some success with this approach has been reported if the model parameters enter as additive terms in the tendency equations, this approach is problematic if the model parameters are multiplied by the state variables. The reason for this difficulty is that multiplicative parameters change the dynamical properties of the model, and in particular can cause the model to become dynamically unstable. This paper shows that model instability can be avoided if the usual persistence model for parameter update is replaced by a temporally smoothed version of the update model. In addition, the augmentation approach can be interpreted as two simultaneously decoupled ensemble Kalman filters for the model state and the parameter state, respectively. Implementation of the parameter estimation does not require changing the data assimilation algorithm—it just has to be supplemented by a parameter estimation step that is similar to the state estimation step. Covariance localization is found to be necessary not only for the model state, but also for augmented model parameters, if they are spatially dependent. The new formulation is illustrated with the Lorenz-96 model and shown to be capable of estimating additive and multiplicative model parameters, as well as the state, under relatively challenging conditions (e.g. using 20 observations to estimate 120 unknown variables).     

大气-海浪耦合模式及其在理想台风模拟中的应用研究

采用传统的理论模型或者经验公式构建台风动力场驱动海浪模式,无法反映台风影响下海气动力过程,难以为海浪模式提供高精度的台风风场、气压场数据。为解决这一问题,基于中尺度大气模式WRF和第三代海浪模式SWAN,构建大气-海浪实时双向耦合模式,并将其应用于理想台风的模拟之中。建立的WRF-SWAN耦合模式能够成功模拟理想台风影响下的台风浪分布特征,揭示了台风风场和台风浪在空间上的“右偏性”不对称分布特征,该模型可推广用于实际台风浪的模拟分析。     

A three-dimensional coupled physical-biological model study in the spring of 1993 in the Bohai Sea of China

A three-dimensional (3-D) coupled physical and biological model was used to investigate the physical processes and their influence on the ecosystem dynamics of the Bohai Sea of China. The physical processes include M2 tide, time-varying wind forcing and river discharge. Wind records from 1 to 31 May in 1993 were selected to force the model. The biological model is based on a simple, nitrate and phosphate limited, lower trophic food web system. The simulated results showed that variation of residual currents forced by M2 tide, river discharge and time-varying wind had great impact on the distribution of phytoplankton biomass in the Laizhou Bay. High phytoplankton biomass appeared in the upwelling region. Numerical experiments based on the barotropic model and baroclinic model with no wind and water discharge were also conducted. Differences in the results by the baroclinic model and the barotropic model were significant: more patches appeared in the baroclinic model comparing with the barotropic model. And in the baroclinic model, the subsurface maximum phytoplankton biomass patches formed in the stratified water.