Outburst susceptibility assessment of moraine‐dammed lakes in Western Himalaya using an analytic hierarchy process

Glacier retreat results in the formation and expansion, and sometimes outburst, of moraine‐dammed lakes worldwide. Sudden outburst floods from such lakes have caused enormous damage to settlements and infrastructure located downstream. Such lakes located in the Himalayan region are highly prone to outburst floods due to climatic conditions and geotectonic settings. In this study, multi‐temporal Landsat images from 2002–2014, digital elevation models (DEMs), geomorphic analysis and modelling were used to assess the changes in glacial lakes and the outburst susceptibility of moraine‐dammed lakes in the Chandra–Bhaga basin of the north‐western Indian Himalaya. An inventory of lakes was developed using satellite data, thematic maps and ground‐based investigations for the Chandra–Bhaga basin. The total area of all glacial lakes (size >5000 m²) increased by 47% from 2002 to 2014, with a pronounced increase of 57% for moraine‐dammed lakes. Sixteen moraine‐dammed lakes were identified and assessed for outburst susceptibility using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Forty‐one reported glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) events from moraine‐dammed lakes in Himalayan regions were analysed, culminating in the identification of 11 critical factors for assessing outburst susceptibility using the AHP, including those related to the lake area and change, surrounding terrain characteristics, dam geometry, regional seismicity and rainfall history. The past three GLOF events in the Himalayan region were used to validate the method and to classify moraine‐dammed lakes as having very high, high, medium or low outburst susceptibility. Eight lakes classified as very high and high outburst susceptibility should be further investigated in detail. The proposed AHP‐based approach is suitable for first‐order identification of critical lakes for prioritising future detailed investigation and monitoring of moraine‐dammed glacial lakes in the Himalayan region. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Glacial lake depth and volume estimation based on a large bathymetric dataset from the Cordillera Blanca,Peru

Glacial lakes are most often located in remote places making it difficult to carry out detailed bathymetric surveys. Consequently, lake depths and volumes for unmeasured lakes are often estimated using empirical relationships developed mainly from small bathymetric datasets. In this study, we use the bathymetry dataset of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru comprising 121 detailed lake bathymetries, the most extensive dataset in the world. We assess the performance of the most commonly applied empirical relationships for lake mean depth and volume estimation, but also investigate relationships between different geometric lake variables. We find that lake volume estimation performs better when derived from lake mean depth, which in turn is estimated from lake width. The findings also reveal the extreme variability of lake geometry, which depends on glacio-geomorphological processes that empirical–statistical relationships cannot adequately represent. Such relationships involve characteristic uncertainty ranges of roughly ±50%. We also estimate potential peak discharges of outburst floods from these lakes by applying empirical relationships from the literature, which results in discharges varying by up to one-order of magnitude. Finally, the results are applied to the 860 lakes without bathymetric measurements from the inventory dataset of the Cordillera Blanca to estimate lake mean depth, volume and possible peak discharge for all unmeasured lakes. Estimations show that ca. 70% (610) of the lakes have a mean depth lower than 10 m and very few longer than 40 m. Lake volume of unmeasured lakes represent ca. 32% (5.18 × 10⁸ m³) of the total lake volume (1.15 × 10⁹ m³) in the Cordillera Blanca. Approximately, 50% of the lakes have potential peak discharges > 1000 m³/s in case of lake outburst floods, implying a need for additional studies for risk assessment. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pro‐glacial lake sedimentation from jökulhlaups (GLOF), Blåmannsisen,northern Norway

Outburst floods from glacier‐dammed lakes are major events associated with glacier thinning and volume reduction. This paper investigates jökulhlaups emanating from the glacier‐dammed lake Øvre Messingmalmvatn at Rundvassbreen, an outlet glacier of the Blåmannsisen ice cap in northern Norway. Since 2001, the lake has several times been observed to drain suddenly, causing jökulhlaup outbursts into the pro‐glacial lake Rundvatnet. Varve analysis and lead‐210 (²¹⁰Pb) dating were used to date sediment cores taken from Rundvatnet. It was found that sedimentation from jökulhlaups is recognizable in the lake as distinct sand layers embedded in the varved silt‐clay sequence which represents the normal lake sedimentation. Sand fractions were carried in suspension because of the extreme hydraulic conditions of jökulhlaups. The thickest sand layer was deposited during the 2001 jökulhlaup which lasted three days and had a total volume of 40 ×10⁶ m³. Jökulhlaups were also recorded in 2005, 2007, 2009, and 2010; they each resulted in a sand layer. Annual sediment accumulation in Rundvatnet increased up to 10‐fold during the years with jökulhlaup outburst floods, from a normal value of 1–2 mm yr^?1 to 8–10 mm yr^?1. Five other jökulhlaups were identified from the 1910–1930 sedimentation interval, in addition to those observed in 2001–2010; there appear to have been none for 70 years during 1931–2000. Each jökulhlaup was preceded by a period when the glacier thinned to a critical volume and could no longer withstand the hydrostatic pressure of Øvre Messingmalmvatn; consequently a tunnel developed beneath the glacier, leading to a jökulhlaup. Statistical analyses of the correlations between the pro‐glacial sedimentation rate and temperature and precipitation suggested that although climate conditions are expected to influence sedimentation in the pro‐glacial catchment, a host of other interacting factors moderate the availability and delivery of sediment to the pro‐glacial system, making the processes responsible for changes in pro‐glacial sedimentation to remain uncertain. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of a rock avalanche on a moraine‐dammed proglacial lake: Laguna Safuna Alta,Cordillera Blanca,Peru

Moraines that dam proglacial lakes pose an increasing hazard to communities in the Andes and other mountain ranges. The moraines are prone to failure through collapse, overtopping by lake waters or the effect of displacement waves resulting from ice and rock avalanches. Resulting floods have led to the loss of thousands of lives in the Cordillera Blanca mountains of Peru alone in the last 100 years. On 22 April 2002 a rock avalanche occurred immediately to the south‐west of Laguna Safuna Alta, in the Cordillera Blanca. The geomorphic evidence for the nature, magnitude and consequences of this event was investigated in August 2002. Field mapping indicated that the avalanche deposited 8–20 × 10⁶ m³ of rock into the lake and onto the surface of the frontal region of Glaciar Pucajirca, which flows into the lake. Repeated bathymetric surveying indicated that ～5 × 10⁶ m³ of this material was deposited directly into the lake. The immediate effect of this event was to create a displacement wave that gained in height as it travelled along the lake basin, overtopping the impounding moraine at the lake's northern end. To achieve overtopping, the maximum wave height must have been greater than 100 m. This, and subsequent seiche waves, caused extensive erosion of both the proximal and distal faces of the impounding terminal moraine. Further deep gullying of the distal face of this moraine resulted from the supply of pressurized water to the face via a relief overflow tunnel constructed in 1978. Two‐dimensional, steady‐state analysis of the stability of the post‐avalanche moraine rampart indicates that its proximal face remains susceptible to major large‐scale rotational failure. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reconstructing historic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods through numerical modelling and geomorphological assessment: Extreme events in the Himalaya

Recession of high‐mountain glaciers in response to climatic change frequently results in the development of moraine‐dammed glacial lakes. Moraine dam failure is often accompanied by the release of large volumes of water and sediment, termed a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). Chukhung Glacier is a small (~3 km²) receding valley glacier in Mt. Everest (Sagarmatha) National Park, Nepal. Unlike many Himalayan glaciers, which possess a thick mantle of supraglacial debris, its surface is relatively clean. The glacier terminus has receded 1.3 km from its maximum Holocene position, and in doing so provided the space for an ice‐contact moraine‐dammed lake to develop. The lake had a maximum volume of 5.5 × 10⁵ m³ and drained as a result of breaching of the terminal moraine. An estimated 1.3 × 10⁵ m³ of material was removed from the terminal moraine during breach development. Numerical dam‐breach modelling, implemented within a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework, was used to investigate a range of moraine‐dam failure scenarios. Reconstructed outflow peak discharges, including failure via overtopping and piping mechanisms, are in the range 146–2200 m³ s^‐1. Results from two‐dimensional hydrodynamic GLOF modelling indicate that maximum local flow depths may have exceeded 9 m, with maximum flow velocities exceeding 20 m s^‐1 within 700 m of the breach. The floodwaters mobilised a significant amount of material, sourced mostly from the expanding breach, forming a 300 m long and 100 m wide debris fan originating at the breach exit. moraine‐dam. These results also suggest that inundation of the entire floodplain may have been achieved within ten minutes of initial breach development, suggesting that debris fan development was rapid. We discuss the key glaciological and geomorphological factors that have determined the evolution of a hazardous moraine‐dammed lake complex and the subsequent generation of a GLOF and its geomorphological impact. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

A conceptual model of supra‐glacial lake formation on debris‐covered glaciers based on GPR facies analysis

Supra‐glacial lakes and ponds can create hotspots of mass loss on debris‐covered glaciers. While much research has been directed at understanding lateral lake expansion, little is known about the rates or processes governing lake deepening. To a large degree, this knowledge gap persists due to sparse observations of lake beds. Here we report on the novel use of ground penetrating radar (GPR) surveys to simultaneously collect supra‐glacial lake bathymetry and bottom composition data from Spillway Lake (surface area of 2.4 × 10⁵ m²; volume of 9.5 × 10⁴ m³), which is located in the terminus region of the Ngozumpa Glacier in the Khumbu region of the Nepal Himalaya. We identified two GPR bottom signals corresponding to two sedimentary facies of (1) sub‐horizontal layered fine sediment drape and (2) coarse blocky diamict. We provide an understanding of the changes in subaqueous debris distribution that occur through stages of lake expansion by combining the GPR results with in situ observations of shoreline deposits matching the interpreted facies. From this, we present an updated conceptual model of supra‐glacial lake evolution, with the addition of data on the evolving debris environment, showing how dominant depositional processes can change as lakes evolve from perched lakes to multi‐basin base‐level lakes and finally onto large moraine‐dammed lakes. Throughout lake evolution, processes such as shoreline steepening, lakebed collapse into voids and conduit interception, subaerial and subaqueous calving and rapid areal expansion alter the spatial distribution and makeup of lakebed debris and sediments forcing a number of positive and negative feedbacks on lake expansion. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Pleistocene outburst floods from Issyk Kul,Kyrgyzstan?

Elevated shorelines and lake sediments surrounding Issyk Kul, the world's second largest mountain lake, record fluctuating lake levels during Quaternary times. Together with bathymetric and geochemical data, these markers document alternating phases of lake closure and external drainage. The uppermost level of lake sediments requires a former damming of the lake's western outlet through the Boam gorge. We test previous hypothesised ice or landslide dam failures by exploring possible links between late Quaternary lake levels and outbursts. We review and recompile the chronology of reported changes in lake site, and offer new ages of abandoned shorelines using ¹⁴C in bivalve and gastropod shells, and plant detritus, as well as sand lenses in delta and river sediments using Infrared Stimulated Luminescence. Our dates are consistent with elevated lake levels between ~45 ka and 22 ka. Cosmogenic ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al exposure ages of fan terraces containing erratic boulders (>3 m) downstream of the gorge constrain the timing of floods to 20.5–18.5 ka, postdating a highstand of Issyk Kul. A flow‐competence analysis gives a peak discharge of >10⁴ m³ s^–1 for entraining and transporting these boulders. Palaeoflood modelling, however, shows that naturally dammed lakes unconnected to Issyk Kul could have produced such high discharges upon sudden emptying. Hence, although our data are consistent with hypotheses of catastrophic outburst floods, average lake‐level changes of up to 90 mm yr^–1 in the past 150 years were highly variable without any outbursts, so that linking lake‐level drops to catastrophic dam breaks remains ambiguous using sedimentary archives alone. This constraint may readily apply to other Quaternary lakes of that size elsewhere. Nonetheless, our reconstructed Pleistocene floods are among the largest reported worldwide, and motivate further research into the palaeoflood hydrology of Central Asia. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rapid expansion of glacial lakes caused by climate and glacier retreat in the Central Himalayas

Glacial lake outburst floods are among the most serious natural hazards in the Himalayas. Such floods are of high scientific and political importance because they exert trans‐boundary impacts on bordering countries. The preparation of an updated inventory of glacial lakes and the analysis of their evolution are an important first step in assessment of hazards from glacial lake outbursts. Here, we report the spatiotemporal developments of the glacial lakes in the Poiqu River basin, a trans‐boundary basin in the Central Himalayas, from 1976 to 2010 based on multi‐temporal Landsat images. Studied glacial lakes are classified as glacier‐fed lakes and non‐glacier‐fed lakes according to their hydrologic connection to glacial watersheds. A total of 119 glacial lakes larger than 0.01 km² with an overall surface area of 20.22 km² (±10.8%) were mapped in 2010, with glacier‐fed lakes being predominant in both number (69, 58.0%) and area (16.22 km², 80.2%). We found that lakes connected to glacial watersheds (glacier‐fed lakes) significantly expanded (122.1%) from 1976 to 2010, whereas lakes not connected to glacial watersheds (non‐glacier‐fed lakes) remained stable (+2.8%) during the same period. This contrast can be attributed to the impact of glaciers. Retreating glaciers not only supply meltwater to lakes but also leave space for them to expand. Compared with other regions of the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH), the lake area per glacier area in the Poiqu River basin was the highest. This observation might be attributed to the different climate regimes and glacier status along the HKH. The results presented in this study confirm the significant role of glacier retreat on the evolution of glacial lakes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Digital landscapes of deglaciation: identifying Late Quaternary glacial lake outburst floods using LiDAR

High resolution DEMs obtained from LiDAR topographic data have led to improved landform inventories (e.g. landslides and fault scarps) and understanding of geomorphic event frequency. Here we use airborne LiDAR mapping to investigate meltwater pathways associated with the Tweed Valley palaeo ice‐stream (UK). In particular we focus on a gorge downstream of Palaeolake Milfield, previously mapped as a sub‐glacial meltwater channel, where the identification of abandoned headcut channels, run‐up bars, rock‐cut terrace surfaces and eddy flow features attest to formation by a sub‐aerial glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) caused by breaching of a sediment dam, likely an esker ridge. Mapping of these landforms combined with analysis of the gorge rim elevations and cross‐section variability revealed a two phase event with another breach site downstream following flow blockage by higher elevation drumlin topography. We estimate the magnitude of peak flow to be 1–3 × 10³ m³/s, duration of the event to range from 16–155 days, and a specific sediment yield of 10⁷–10⁹ m³/km²/yr. We identified other outburst pathways in the lower Tweed basin that help delineate an ice margin position of the retreating Tweed Valley ice stream. The results suggest that low magnitude outburst floods are under‐represented in Quaternary geomorphological maps. We therefore recommend regional LiDAR mapping of meltwater pathways to identify other GLOFs in order to better quantify the pattern of freshwater and sediment fluxes from melting ice sheets to oceans. Despite the relatively low magnitude of the Till outburst event, it had a significant impact on the landscape development of the lower Tweed Valley through the creation of a new tributary pathway and triggering of rapid knickpoint retreat encouraging new regional models of post‐glacial fluvial landscape response. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variations in glacier volume and snow cover and their impact on lake storage in the Paiku Co Basin,in the Central Himalayas

Glaciers and snow cover are important constituents of the surface of the Tibetan Plateau. The responses of these phenomena to global environmental changes are sensitive, rapid and intensive due to the high altitudes and arid cold climate of the Tibetan Plateau. Based on multisource remote sensing data, including Landsat images, MOD10A2 snow product, ICESat, Cryosat-2 altimetry data and long-term ground climate observations, we analysed the dynamic changes of glaciers, snow melting and lake in the Paiku Co basin using extraction methods for glaciers and lake, the degree-day model and the ice and lake volume method. The interaction among the climate, ice-snow and the hydrological elements in Paiku Co is revealed. From 2000 to 2018, the basin tended to be drier, and rainfall decreased at a rate of −3.07 mm/a. The seasonal temperature difference in the basin increased, the maximum temperature increased at a rate of 0.02°C/a and the minimum temperature decreased at a rate of −0.06°C/a, which accelerated the melting from glaciers and snow at rates of 0.55 × 10⁷ m³/a and 0.29 × 10⁷ m³/a, respectively. The rate of contribution to the lake from rainfall, snow and glacier melted water was 55.6, 27.7 and 16.7%, respectively. In the past 18 years, the warmer and drier climate has caused the lake to shrink. The water level of the lake continued to decline at a rate of −0.02 m/a, and the lake water volume decreased by 4.85 × 10⁸ m³ at a rate of −0.27 × 10⁸ m³/a from 2000 to 2018. This evaluation is important for understanding how the snow and ice melting in the central Himalayas affect the regional water cycle.     

Outburst flood hazard: Case studies from the Tien-Shan Mountains, Kyrgyzstan

More than 2000 of mountain lakes covering more than 0.1 ha exist in a territory of Kyrgyzstan. Nearly 20% of them are dangerous because of instability of lake dams, frequent overflows and melting of buried ice inside the moraine dams. According to the Kyrgyz lake inventory, 328 lakes are at risk of outburst and 12 lakes are considered as actually dangerous. Since 1952 more than 70 disastrous cases of lake outbursts have occurred. The majority of the endangered lakes belong to one of the three genetic types: morainic-glacier, supraglacial and lake dammed by landslides and debris flows. Petrov, Adygine and Koltor lakes were selected and studied in the Tien-Shan Mountains as case studies of the most frequent genetic types of hazardous lakes. Observations were focused on the morphology of the lake basin and the surrounding relief, outflow pattern and processes controlling the development of lake. For the hazard assessment, evolution of glaciers and lakes was reconstructed using historical reports, aerial photographs and satellite images.     

Snow and ice perturbation during historical volcanic eruptions and the formation of lahars and floods

Historical eruptions have produced lahars and floods by perturbing snow and ice at more than 40 volcanoes worldwide. Most of these volcanoes are located at latitudes higher than 35°; those at lower latitudes reach altitudes generally above 4000 m. Volcanic events can perturb mantles of snow and ice in at least five ways: (1) scouring and melting by flowing pyroclastic debris or blasts of hot gases and pyroclastic debris, (2) surficial melting by lava flows, (3) basal melting of glacial ice or snow by subglacial eruptions or geothermal activity, (4) ejection of water by eruptions through a crater lake, and (5) deposition of tephra fall. Historical records of volcanic eruptions at snow-clad volcanoes show the following: (1) Flowing pyroclastic debris (pyroclastic flows and surges) and blasts of hot gases and pyroclastic debris are the most common volcanic events that generate lahars and floods; (2) Surficial lava flows generally cannot melt snow and ice rapidly enough to form large lahars or floods; (3) Heating the base of a glacier or snowpack by subglacial eruptions or by geothermal activity can induce basal melting that may result in ponding of water and lead to sudden outpourings of water or sediment-rich debris flows; (4) Tephra falls usually alter ablation rates of snow and ice but generally produce little meltwater that results in the formation of lahars and floods; (5) Lahars and floods generated by flowing pyroclastic debris, blasts of hot gases and pyroclastic debris, or basal melting of snow and ice commonly have volumes that exceed 10⁵ m³.The glowing lava (pyroclastic flow) which flowed with force over ravines and ridges...gathered in the basin quickly and then forced downwards. As a result, tremendously wide and deep pathways in the ice and snow were made and produced great streams of water (Wolf 1878).     

An assessment of conditions before and after the 1998 Tam Pokhari outburst in the Nepal Himalaya and an evaluation of the future outburst hazard

On 3 September 1998, a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) that originated from Tam Pokhari occurred in the Hinku valley of the eastern Nepal Himalaya. This study analyses the lake's geomorphic and hydrologic conditions prior to the outburst, and evaluates the conditions that could contribute to a future flood through photogrammetric techniques. We processed high‐resolution Corona KH‐4A (2.7 m) and ALOS PRISM (2.5 m) stereo‐images taken before and after the GLOF event, and produced detailed topographic maps (2‐m contour interval) and DEMs (5 m × 5 m). We (re‐) constructed lake water surfaces before (4410 ± 5 m) and after (4356 ± 5 m) the outburst, and reliably estimated the lake water surface lowering (54 ± 5 m) and the water volume released (19.5 ± 2.2 × 10⁶ m³) from the lake, showing good agreement with the results obtained from ground‐based measurements. The most relevant conditions that may have influenced the catastrophic drainage of Tam Pokhari in 1998 include the presence of: (i) a narrow (75 ± 6 m), steep (up to 50°) and high (120 ± 5 m) moraine dam; (ii) high lake level (8 ± 5 m of freeboard) and (iii) a steep overhanging glacier (>40°). The lake outburst substantially altered the immediate area, creating a low and wide (>500 m) outwash plain below the lake, a wide lake outlet channel (~50 m) and a gentle channel slope (~3–5°). Our new data suggest that the likelihood of a future lake outburst is low. Our results demonstrate that the datasets produced by photogrammetric techniques provide an excellent representation of micro‐landform features on moraine dams, lake water surfaces and the changes in both over time, thereby allowing highly accurate pre‐ and post‐GLOF (volumetric) change analysis of glacial lakes. Furthermore, it enables precise measurement of several predictive variables of GLOFs that can be useful for identifying potentially dangerous glacial lakes or prioritizing them for detailed field investigations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Slope failures and erosion rates on a glacierized high‐mountain face under climatic changes

In this study, rapid topographic changes and increased erosion rates caused by massive slope failures in a glacierized and permafrost‐affected high‐mountain face were investigated with respect to the current climatic change. The study was conducted at one of the highest periglacial rock faces in the European Alps, the east face of Monte Rosa, Italy. Pronounced changes in ice cover and repeated rock and ice avalanche events have been documented in this rock wall since around 1990. The performed multi‐temporal comparison of high‐resolution digital terrain models (DTMs) complemented by detailed analyses of repeat photography represents a unique assessment of topographic changes and slope failures over half a century and reveals a total volume loss in bedrock and steep glaciers in the central part of the face of around 25 × 10⁶ m³ between 1988 and 2007. The high rock and ice avalanche activity translates into an increase in erosion rates of about one order of magnitude during recent decades. The study indicates that changes in atmospheric temperatures and connected changes in ice cover can induce slope destabilization in high‐mountain faces. Analyses of temperature data show that the start of the intense mass movement activity coincided with increased mean annual temperatures in the region around 1990. However, once triggered, mass movement activity seems to be able to proceed in a self‐reinforcing cycle, whereby single mass movement events might be strongly influenced by short‐term extreme temperature events. The investigations suggest a strong stability coupling between steep glaciers and underlying bedrock, as most bedrock instabilities are located in areas where surface ice has disappeared recently and the failure zones are frequently spatially correlated and often develop from lower altitudes progressively upwards. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geomorphic influence on small glacier response to post‐Little Ice Age climate warming: Julian Alps,Europe

The evolution of glaciers and ice patches, as well as the equilibrium‐line altitude (ELA) since the Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum were investigated in the Julian Alps (south‐eastern European Alps) including ice masses that were previously unreported. Twenty‐three permanent firn and ice bodies have been recognized in the 1853 km² of this alpine sector, covering a total area in 2012 of 0.385 km², about one‐fifth of the area covered during the LIA (2.350 km²). These features were classified as very small glaciers, glacierets or ice patches, with major contribution to the mass balance from avalanches and wind‐blown snow. Localized snow accumulation is also enhanced in the area due to the irregular karst topography. The ice masses in the region are at the lowest elevations of any glaciers in the Alpine Chain, and are characterized by low dynamics. The ELAs of the two major LIA glaciers (Canin and Triglav) have been established at 2275 ± 10 m and 2486 ± 10 m, respectively, by considering the reconstructed area and digital elevation model (DEM) and using an accumulation area ratio (AAR) of 0.44 ± 0.07, typical of small cirque glaciers. Changes in the ELA and glaciers extension indicate a decoupling from climate. This is most evident in the smallest avalanche‐dominated ice bodies, which are currently controlled mainly by precipitation. The damming effect of moraine ridges and pronival ramparts at the snout of small ice bodies in the Julian Alps represents a further geomorphological control on the evolution of such ice masses, which seem to be resilient to recent climate warming instead of rapidly disappearing as should be expected. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrogeomorphic processes of thermokarst lakes with grounded‐ice and floating‐ice regimes on the Arctic coastal plain,Alaska

Thermokarst lakes cover > 20% of the landscape throughout much of the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) with shallow lakes freezing solid (grounded ice) and deeper lakes maintaining perennial liquid water (floating ice). Thus, lake depth relative to maximum ice thickness (1·5–2·0 m) represents an important threshold that impacts permafrost, aquatic habitat, and potentially geomorphic and hydrologic behaviour. We studied coupled hydrogeomorphic processes of 13 lakes representing a depth gradient across this threshold of maximum ice thickness by analysing remotely sensed, water quality, and climatic data over a 35‐year period. Shoreline erosion rates due to permafrost degradation ranged from < 0·2 m/year in very shallow lakes (0·4 m) up to 1·8 m/year in the deepest lakes (2·6 m). This pattern of thermokarst expansion masked detection of lake hydrologic change using remotely sensed imagery except for the shallowest lakes with stable shorelines. Changes in the surface area of these shallow lakes tracked interannual variation in precipitation minus evaporation (P ? E_L) with periods of full and nearly dry basins. Shorter‐term (2004–2008) specific conductance data indicated a drying pattern across lakes of all depths consistent with the long‐term record for only shallow lakes. Our analysis suggests that grounded‐ice lakes are ice‐free on average 37 days longer than floating‐ice lakes resulting in a longer period of evaporative loss and more frequent negative P ? E_L. These results suggest divergent hydrogeomorphic responses to a changing Arctic climate depending on the threshold created by water depth relative to maximum ice thickness in ACP lakes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geology and hazard implications of the Maraunot notch in the Pinatubo Caldera,Philippines

The 1991 Pinatubo eruption left 5–6 km³ of debris on the volcano slopes, much of which has been mobilized into large lahars in the following rainy seasons. Also during the eruption, collapse, localized in part along preexisting faults, left a caldera 2.5 km in diameter that almost immediately began to accumulate a 1.6 × 10⁸ m³ lake. By 2001, the water had risen to the fault-controlled Maraunot Notch, the lowest, northwestern portion of the caldera rim comprising the physiographic sill of the Caldera Lake. That year, a narrow artificial canal dug into an old volcanic breccia underlying the outlet channel failed to induce a deliberate lake breakout, but discharge from heavy rains in July 2002 rapidly deepened the notch by 23 m, releasing an estimated 6.5 × 10⁷ m³ of lake water that bulked up into lahars with a volume well in excess of 1.6 × 10⁸ m³. Lakes in other volcanoes have experienced multiple breakouts, providing practical motivation for this study. Fieldwork and high-resolution digital elevation models reveal andesites and ancient lacustrine deposits, strongly fractured and deformed along a segment of the Maraunot Fault, a prominent, steeply dipping, left-lateral fault zone that trends N35°–40°W within and parallel to the notch. Seismicity in 1991 demonstrated that the Maraunot Fault is still active. The fault zone appears to have previously been the erosional locus for a large channel, filled with avalanche or landslide deposits of an earlier eruption that were exhumed by the 2002 breakout floods. The deformed lacustrine sediments, with an uncalibrated ¹⁴C age of 14,760 ± 40 year BP from a single charcoal sample, attest to the existence of an earlier lake, possibly within the Tayawan Caldera, rim remnants of which survive as arcuate escarpments. That lake may well have experienced one or more ancient breakouts as well. The 2002 event greatly reduced the possibility of another such event by scouring away the erodible breccia, leaving less erodible fractured andesites and lacustrine rocks, and by enlarging the outlet channel and its discharge capacity. Several lines of evidence indicate, however, that future lahar-generating lake breakouts at the notch may keep populations of Botolan municipality downstream at risk: (1) a volume of 9.5 × 10⁷ m³ of lake water remains perched 0.8 km above sea level; (2) seismicity in 1991 demonstrated that the Maraunot Fault is still active and movements of sufficient magnitude could enlarge the outlet and the discharge through it; (3) more likely, however, with or without earthquake activity, landslides from the steep to overhanging channel walls could block the channel again, and a major rainstorm could then cause a rise in lake level and sudden breakouts; (4) intrusion of a new dome into the bottom of the lake, possibly accompanied by phreatic explosions, could expel large volumes of lahar-generating water.     

Effects of permafrost degradation on thermokarst lake hydrochemistry in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China

Thermokarst lakes play a key role in the hydrological and biogeochemical cycles of permafrost regions. Current knowledge regarding the changes caused by permafrost degradation to the hydrochemistry of lakes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is limited. To address this gap, a systematic investigation of thermokarst lake water, suprapermafrost water, ground ice, and precipitation was conducted in the hinterland of the QTP. The thermokarst lake water in the QTP was identified to be of the Na-HCO₃-Cl type. The mean concentrations of HCO₃⁻ and Na⁺ were 281.8 mg L⁻¹ (146.0–546.2 mg L⁻¹) and 73.3 mg L⁻¹ (9.2–345.8 mg L⁻¹), respectively. The concentrations of Li⁺, NH₄⁺, K⁺, F⁻, NO₂⁻, and NO₃⁻ were relatively low. Freeze-out fractionation concentrated the dissolved solids within the lake water during winter, which was deeply deepened on lake depth and lake ice thickness. Owing to solute enrichment, the ground ice was characterized by high salinity. Conversely, repeated replenishment via precipitation led to lower solute concentrations in the ground ice near the permafrost table compared to that within the permafrost. Although lower solute concentration existed in precipitation, the soil leaching and saline ground ice melting processes enhanced the solute load in suprapermafrost water, which is considered an important water and solute resource in thermokarst lakes. The influencing mechanism of permafrost degradation on thermokarst lake hydrochemistry is presumably linked to: (1) the liberation of soluble materials sequestered in ground ice; (2) the increase of solutes in suprapermafrost water and soil pore water; and (3) the changes in lake morphometry. These results have major implications on the understanding of the effects of ground ice melting on ecosystem functions, biogeochemical processes, and energy balance in a rapidly changing climate.     

Rate of sediment yield following small‐scale volcanic eruptions: a quantitative assessment at the Merapi and Semeru stratovolcanoes,Java, Indonesia

Sediment yields were calculated on the ?anks of Merapi and Semeru volcanoes in Java, Indonesia, using two different methods. During the ?rst year following the 22 November 1994 eruption of Merapi, a sediment yield in excess of 1·5 × 10⁵ m³ km^?2 yr^?1 was calculated in the Boyong River drainage basin, based on the volumes of sediment that were trapped by ?ve check dams. At Semeru, sediment discharges were assessed in the Curah Lengkong River from direct measurements on the lahars in motion and on the most signi?cant stream?ows. The calculated rate of sediment yield during one year of data in 2000 was 2·7 × 10⁵ m³ km^?2 yr^?1. Sediment yields are dominated by rain‐triggered lahars, which occur every rainy season in several drainage basins of Merapi and Semeru volcanoes, mostly during the rainy season extending from October to April. The return period of lahars carrying sediment in excess of 5 × 10⁵ m³ is about one year in the Curah Lengkong River at Semeru. At Merapi, the volume of sediments transported by a lahar did not exceed 2·8 × 10⁵ m³ in the Boyong River during the rainy season 1994–95. On both volcanoes, the sediments are derived from similar sources: pyroclastic‐?ow/surges deposits, rockfalls from the lava domes, and old material from the riverbed and banks. However, daily explosions of vulcanian type at Semeru provide a more continuous sediment supply than at Merapi. Therefore, sediment yields are larger at Semeru. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Heterogeneous water storage and thermal regime of supraglacial ponds on debris‐covered glaciers

The water storage and energy transfer roles of supraglacial ponds are poorly constrained, yet they are thought to be important components of debris‐covered glacier ablation budgets. We used an unmanned surface vessel (USV) to collect sonar depth measurements for 24 ponds to derive the first empirical relationship between their area and volume applicable to the size distribution of ponds commonly encountered on debris‐covered glaciers. Additionally, we instrumented nine ponds with thermistors and three with pressure transducers, characterizing their thermal regime and capturing three pond drainage events. The deepest and most irregularly‐shaped ponds were those associated with ice cliffs, which were connected to the surface or englacial hydrology network (maximum depth = 45.6 m), whereas hydrologically‐isolated ponds without ice cliffs were both more circular and shallower (maximum depth = 9.9 m). The englacial drainage of three ponds had the potential to melt ~100 ± 20 × 10³ kg to ~470 ± 90 × 10³ kg of glacier ice owing to the large volumes of stored water. Our observations of seasonal pond growth and drainage with their associated calculations of stored thermal energy have implications for glacier ice flow, the progressive enlargement and sudden collapse of englacial conduits, and the location of glacier ablation hot‐spots where ponds and ice cliffs interact. Additionally, the evolutionary trajectory of these ponds controls large proglacial lake formation in deglaciating environments. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.