陆面模式CLM4.5对青藏高原高寒草甸地表能量交换模拟性能的评估

利用中国科学院那曲高寒气候环境观测研究站2013年9月1日至2014年8月31日一个完整年的观测资料,对陆面过程模式CLM4.5在青藏高原(下称高原)高寒草甸下垫面地表能量交换的模拟性能进行了评估。模拟结果表明,CLM4.5能够较好的模拟高原春季、夏季和秋季非冻结期地面长波、反射辐射和地表净辐射、感热和潜热通量以及地表土壤热通量等的季节变化和日循环特征。但对冬季冻结期地表温度的模拟偏低,导致模拟与观测的感热反相,对地面反射辐射模拟偏大。截断冬季降水的敏感性试验进一步指出,模式冬季反射辐射偏大主要是由于积雪引起的地表反照率偏高造成,进而造成地表温度以及感热通量的模拟偏低。因此,高原积雪参数化方案以及与积雪相关的反照率参数化方案还需进一步改进和完善。     

中国北部积雪区冬季地表温度和2m气温再分析数据评估

利用2011-2016年冬季中国东北内蒙古及北疆地区251个站点逐日0 cm地表温度和2 m气温数据,对ERA5、MERRA2、JRA55、CRA-interim和CFSR五套再分析数据的地表温度和气温进行评估,并使用MOD10C1对有无积雪覆盖时地表温度的偏差进行了分析。结果表明,再分析气温的精度较高,各再分析气温的整体偏差分布在-1～1℃,北疆地区适用性稍差;再分析地表温度精度明显降低,除ERA5整体偏差为-0. 34℃外,再分析地表温度表现为明显低估;再分析地表温度的偏差与土地利用类型有关,林地地区的地表温度冷偏差最大,草地地区偏差最小;再分析地表温度在有雪时低估更为严重,林地和耕地地区表现明显;相对于地表温度偏差本身,积雪的影响不大,陆面模式对于积雪区冬季林地地区的模拟亟待提高。     

MERRA再分析地面气温产品在青藏高原的适用性分析

利用1981-2010年青藏高原60个气象站地面观测气温对MERRA再分析资料地面气温产品T2m进行了评估检验和适用性分析。结果表明:(1)MERRA T2m在青藏高原存在系统性偏低,平均偏低3.2℃,地势相对平坦、地表类型较为单一的高原内陆和北部MERRA T2m更为接近实测气温,而地形和地表类型复杂的高原东南部和南部河谷地区MERRA T2m偏差较大,但是在气温的长期变化趋势上与实测气温具有较好的一致性,MERRA T2m年平均气温升幅要小于实测气温升幅(0.18℃·(10a)~(-1));(2)MERRA T2m与观测气温之间具有较好的线性相关关系,平均相关系数为0.76,96.7%的气象站点通过了P0.05的显著性检验,85%的站点则通过了P0.001显著性检验,相关程度相对较低的站点位于纬度较高的高原北部;(3)MERRA T2m产品相比其他全球再分析资料在青藏高原地面气温表达方面具有一定的优势,是弥补青藏高原观测台站不足,开展高原气候变化、能量平衡和水循环研究以及选取区域气候模式初始场的较好再分析资料。     

辽宁省地气温差变化特征及其原因分析

利用1965—2014年辽宁省54个气象站月平均气温和地表温度观测资料、2003年45个气象站气温与地表温度的人工和自动定时观测资料,分析辽宁省气温、地表温度及地气温差的变化特征,并分析了地气温差变化的主要原因。结果表明:1965—2003年辽宁省气温和地表温度相关性较好,均呈显著升高的趋势,地气温差的变化较小;2004年开始气温较前10 a(1994—2003年)差异较小,而地表温度持续升高,地气温差加大,此现象在辽宁省东北部地区冬季最显著。2004年辽宁省气象站全面由人工观测改为自动站观测,积雪天气时人工气象站观测的地面温度为雪面温度,自动气象站观测的地面温度为雪下温度,不同观测方式引起的地面温度差异是导致近10 a(2004—2014年)地表温度持续升高的最主要原因。因此,辽宁省积雪期最长的东北部地区是地气温差加大最显著的区域。可见,观测方式的改变是导致2004—2014年辽宁地区地表温度持续升高和地气温差加大的主要原因。     

气温与地表辐射收支的联系：基于禹城和栾城站点资料的分析

基于对华北禹城和栾城站2005—2006年辐射和气象数据的分析,建立了大气内能与地面总辐射、大气物质吸收、物质散射、大气动能和净辐射之间的能量关系。经验关系可以模拟出2站温度“月平均”的变化规律,其“月平均”计算值与观测值最大正负偏差分别为3.84和-4.05℃,“年均值”计算值与观测值的偏差小于0.36℃。敏感性计算表明,气温对净辐射的变化最敏感,其次是散射因子、吸收因子、地面总辐射、地面风速。净辐射、散射因子、吸收因子、总辐射和地面风速分别增加5%造成气温的变化分别为0.93、-0.40、0.23、-0.20和-0.12℃。研究温度的变化,除了考虑有限的温室气体（如CO2、水汽和臭氧等）的作用,还要考虑其他物质的吸收作用、气液固相物质的散射作用、地表组成和特性的变化、地面风速的变化、总辐射的变化,尤其要重视净辐射的变化。     

那曲高寒草地长时间地面热源特征及其气候影响因子分析

利用中国科学院那曲高寒气候环境观测研究站2002—2015年自动气象塔(AWS_Tower)和2011—2014年涡动相关系统(EC)的观测资料,基于地表能量平衡组合法和涡动相关法计算那曲高寒草地下垫面湍流通量。利用涡动相关法对地表能量平衡组合法计算的感热通量、潜热通量进行校正,并将校正规律外推得到一个长时间连续的地表通量序列,分析那曲高寒草地下垫面感热通量、潜热通量的长时间变化特征以及地面热源与气候影响因子的关系。结果表明,该序列地表能量闭合度在春、夏、秋以及全年接近1,而冬季辐射观测值偏小导致能量闭合度正偏差较大为1. 34。近14年中,感热通量在年际变化上呈上升趋势;潜热通量呈显著减弱趋势,造成地面热源呈减弱趋势。地面热源与风速、地表温度、土壤湿度以及净辐射通量资料的关系显著。其中地面热源全年对净辐射通量响应显著,对地表温度在春、秋以及冬季响应显著,与土壤湿度在春、夏以及秋季响应明显,与风速在春季响应特征较为突出。季节变化上,感热通量在4月达到全年最大值,在7月为最小值;潜热通量在7月为全年最大值,在1月为最小值。     

NCEP/NCAR逐时分析与中国实测地表温度和地面气温对比分析

美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP) 和国家大气中心(NCAR) 的全球分析资料,不仅应用于气候模拟和预测研究中而且也可作为卫星遥感云检测的初始场资料.通过对2005年NCEP逐6小时全球最终分析资料(FNL)与中国753个台站实测资料的地表温度和地面1.5m高气温进行Cressman插值, 从时次变化和空间变化等方面系统地分析和比较了这一年间NCEP分析值与中国区域内观测值之间的差异, 得到结果: NCEP分析地表温度较观测值普遍偏低, 而地面气温NCEP分析值的空间分布大致表现为在北部地区大于观测值、而南部地区小于观测值;就2005年季节变化而言,NCEP分析值在夏季比冬季符合得好,而在我国东南部比东北、西北符合得好;从时次上看,地温和气温都呈现出随着时次推进(从2时到20时),正值区(NCEP分析值-实测值＞0)减弱、负值区(NCEP分析值-实测值＜0)加强的趋势;而通过标准化均方根误差的分析,可以知道气温的NCEP分析资料在我国可行性比地温要好.     

两种再分析月平均气温资料在蒙古国的适用性评估北大核心CSCD

利用蒙古国18个气象站1987-2006年实测月平均气温资料与JRA-55和ERA-interim两种再分析资料月平均气温进行了比较和分析。首先对比了两种再分析气温资料在蒙古国校正前后的质量状况,并分析了资料的误差来源;然后将再分析气温资料与实测气温资料变化趋势进行对比,评估其对于温度变化趋势的反映能力。结果表明,利用气温直减率对再分析资料校正可以显著提升再分析资料春、夏、秋季数据质量,再分析资料偏差主要源于冬季气温偏差;JRA-55和ERA-interim气温数据在蒙古国地区可信度都比较高并各具优势,ERA-interim相对JRA-55偏差略小,而JRA-55则可以更为精准的拟合气温的变化趋势。     

两种再分析月平均气温资料在蒙古国的适用性评估

利用蒙古国18个气象站1987-2006年实测月平均气温资料与JRA-55和ERA-interim两种再分析资料月平均气温进行了比较和分析。首先对比了两种再分析气温资料在蒙古国校正前后的质量状况,并分析了资料的误差来源;然后将再分析气温资料与实测气温资料变化趋势进行对比,评估其对于温度变化趋势的反映能力。结果表明,利用气温直减率对再分析资料校正可以显著提升再分析资料春、夏、秋季数据质量,再分析资料偏差主要源于冬季气温偏差;JRA-55和ERA-interim气温数据在蒙古国地区可信度都比较高并各具优势,ERA-interim相对JRA-55偏差略小,而JRA-55则可以更为精准的拟合气温的变化趋势。     

CMIP6全球气候模式对青藏高原中东部地表感热通量模拟能力评估

利用青藏高原（以下简称高原）气象台站常规观测资料、国家青藏高原科学数据中心的青藏高原地气相互作用过程高分辨率（逐小时）综合观测数据集（2005～2016）、国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段（CMIP6）的历史模拟试验数据和卫星辐射资料,定量评估了12个全球气候模式对1979～2014年高原中东部地表感热通量的模拟能力,并对其模拟偏差进行了成因分析。结果表明,CMIP6模式可较好地重现高原地表感热通量的年循环和季节平均的空间分布型,但数值较计算感热通量偏低,主要表现为对感热通量大值区严重低估。区域平均而言,12个模式模拟的春季高原中东部感热通量的时间演变序列整体较计算感热通量偏低,其中偏差最大的模式为MIROC6,其多年均值仅为计算值的1/3左右。进一步分析发现多模式模拟的春季高原10 m高度处风速和地气温差分别偏强和偏弱,说明CMIP6模拟的春季高原感热通量偏低可主要归因于地气温差的模拟冷偏差。地气温差的模拟冷偏差在高原中东部地区普遍存在,且地表温度和空气温度均存在明显冷偏差,尤其地表温度偏差更大,这很大程度上可能与CMIP6多模式模拟的春季高原降水偏强有关。     

NCEP/NCAR再分析资料在青藏铁路沿线气候变化研究中的适用性

通过对青藏铁路沿线8个常规气象站的温度和降水观测资料与NCEP／NCAR再分析资料的对比,详细地考查了再分析资料用于青藏铁路沿线气候变化研究的可行性。统计对比分析表明：再分析资料可较好地反映地面气温及降水的年变化特征,可基本反映其年际变率和年际间的差异。然而,再分析的气温值系统性低于实际观测值,降水量则系统性偏大;再分析资料得出的近40年气温长期变化趋势误差较大,降水的长期趋势特别是年降水有一定的参考价值。总体而言,再分析的气温好于降水,青藏铁路沿线主体好于两端,再分析资料可用于青藏铁路沿线主体段年到年际尺度的短期气候变化研究。     

Impacts of assimilated data on reanalysis climatology

Impacts of the observing systems and meteorological parameters on a reanalyzed climatology are investigated using an assimilation algorithm based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) reanalysis system. The one-year analyzed climatology is generated in a standard analysis using all of the observations, which is named the control run. Additional climatology data sets are produced by selectively choosing observational systems or meteorological variables in the reanalysis system. It is found that the radiosonde-only observation is sufficient for reproducing the reanalysis climatology. Satellite observations have no significant contribution to the large-scale fields. The importance of meteorological variables on the analyzed climatology is temperature, wind, and moisture in that order, where the mass observation is found to have a greater impact on the analyzed climatology than wind. It is, however, noted that the moisture field demonstrates a profound influence on the surface hydroclimate such as cloud cover, radiation flux, and land surface temperature.     

中国地表太阳辐射再分析数据与观测的比较

利用我国地表太阳辐射台站资料和海上观测资料与同期的NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/CFSR再分析资料进行比较,检验再分析资料是否能够反映中国地区的太阳辐射特征。结果表明:1979年之前NCEP/NCAR太阳辐射资料的可信度较低,存在虚假的明显上升趋势,1979年之后两套再分析资料的可信度均较高,在我国东部和低纬度地区的可信度好于西部和高纬度地区;由逐6 h再分析数据直接计算得到的逐日太阳辐射比实际观测偏低,剔除太阳辐射为零的情况计算逐日资料更合理。在大陆地区,NCEP/NCAR,NCEP/CFSR再分析资料与台站太阳辐射资料的1979—2009年共31年平均误差分别为10.37 W·m-2和-42.68 W·m-2,误差的标准差分别为12.31 W·m-2和4.19 W·m-2;在海洋区域,NCEP/NCAR,NCEP/CFSR再分析资料与海上观测太阳辐射资料的平均误差分别为-161.19 W·m-2和-179.66 W·m-2,误差的标准差分别为37.07 W·m-2和35.36 W·m-2。与大陆台站资料相比,海上观测与再分析资料的误差偏大,这可能与海上观测资料较少,限制了NCEP模式的评估和改进有关。     

The role of wintertime radiation in maintaining and destroying stable layers

Summary Strong stable layers are a common occurrence during western Colorado's winter. Analysis of radiosonde observations indicate wintertime boundary layer heights are near 500 m. The terrain in this region consists of mountains that rise approximately 1500–2000 m above the ground to the east, providing an effective blocking barrier. An experiment is described to observe upwelling and downwelling, longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes at two sites in western Colorado during January and February 1992, for combinations of clear, cloudy, snow covered, and bare ground periods. Analysis of the observations and the surface energy budget for typical Bowen ratios provides a better understanding of the role of radiation in maintaining and destroying stable layers.During the day, the surface received a net gain of energy from radiation, while at night there was a net loss. Over snow, the 24-hour net radiative flux was small and either positive or negative. Over bare soil, the 24-hour net radiative flux was positive but still small. There is little difference in the net radiative flux between clear and cloudy days; the reduction of the incident solar flux by clouds is nearly compensated by the hindering of the longwave cooling. The cumulative effects of the 24-hour net radiative flux were negative over snow early in the experiment. The 24-hour values shifted to near zero as the snow albedo decreased and were positive for bare ground.If the daytime net radiative flux is partitioned into sensible and latent heat flux using typical Bowen ratios, the daytime sensible heat available for destroying boundary layers is small for the low solar angles of the winter season. With a Bowen ratio of 0.5, the daytime sensible heat flux available is only 0.3 to 1.2 MJ m^–2 over a snow surface and 1.4 to 2.3 MJ m^–2 over soil. These heat fluxes will not build a deep enough boundary layer to break a typical wintertime inversion. The 24-hour sensible heat flux was negative at both sites for the entire experiment with this Bowen ratio.The radiation observations and the use of typical Bowen ratios lead to the conclusion that the net radiation will sustain or strengthen a stable atmosphere in the winter season in western Colorado. Analysis of the radiosonde observations confirm this result as the boundary layer depths were less than 500 m early in the experiment and grew to only 700 m later in the experiment.With 12 Figures     

海-陆-气全球耦合模式能量收支的误差

通过分析GOALS模式两个版本GOALS 1.1和GOALS 2的能量收支 ,并与观测对比 ,结果表明 :模式模拟的地表净短波辐射通量在高纬地区偏低 ,而净长波辐射通量又偏高 ,导致极地表面温度偏低 ,感热通量在高纬地区为很高的负值。而在陆地上感热加热作用显著偏强 ,使地表有较大的向上净能量给大气 ,引起陆地上有些暖中心也偏强 ,这也解释了模式模拟地表面空气温度场的误差原因。海洋上潜热通量偏低 ,特别是在副热带洋面上偏少更明显。陆地上的欧亚和北美大陆大部分地区潜热通量仍偏低。这也是模式降水在大部分地区偏少的重要原因。两模式大气顶OLR偏低的模拟主要是在中低纬度 ,大气顶净短波辐射通量的模拟在中低纬度虽然与NCEP结果接近 ,但与地球辐射收支试验ERBE资料比较仍偏小较多 ,说明改进中低纬度云 辐射参数化方案对改进全球能量收支的模拟有重要意义。GOALS 2模式中诊断云方案模拟的云量除赤道地区外普遍偏小 ,尤以中纬度为甚 ,造成那里能量收支出现大的误差 ,这表明了更好的云参数化方案的引入是今后模式发展的重要任务之一     

ENERGY BUDGET BIAS IN GLOBAL COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE-LAND MODEL*

The energy budget of the two versions of the GOALS model (GOALS-1.1 and GOALS-2) is described and compared to observational estimates.The results illustrate that the simulated surface net shortwave radiation flux is underestimated in the high-latitude regions while the surface net longwave radiation flux is substantially overestimated in that region,which results in the lower surface air temperature (SAT) of the polar region and the stronger negative sensible heat flux in high latitudes.The overestimated sensible heat flux from surface to atmosphere in the continents causes the much warmer SAT centers,which may be the reason for the bias of the model SAT. The bias that the simulated precipitation is less than observation in most regions is closely related to the underestimated latent heat flux over most of the Eurasian Continent and the oceans, especially over the subtropical oceans.It can be seen that the bias in the OLR of the two models lies in low and middle latitudes,where the absorbed solar shortwave radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere is comparable to the NCEP reanalysis,but much less than ERBE data.This indicates that the improvement of cloud-radiation parameterization scheme in low and middle latitudes is of critical importance to the simulation of global energy budget.The simulated cloud cover from the GOALS-2 model with diagnosed cloud scheme is generally less except at equatorial areas, especially in the mid-latitude areas,which causes the large bias of energy budget there.It is suggested that the refinement of cloud parameterization is one of the most important tasks in the model's future development.     

黄河源积雪期土壤温湿及冻融特征分析与模拟

利用2017～2018年黄河源地区野外观测站数据,对黄河源区两个积雪期内土壤温湿及冻融特征进行了分析,并与CLM4.5模式模拟的积雪期土壤温、湿度及辐射分量进行了对比,结果表明:CLM4.5能很好地模拟出整个积雪期土壤温度的变化趋势;对不同土壤层在不同冻结阶段土壤含水量的模拟有所差异:在完全冻结阶段,对5cm 土壤层含...     

Simulation of snow processes beneath a boreal scots pine canopy

A physically-based multi-layer snow model Snow-Atmosphere-Soil-Transfer scheme(SAST)and a land surface model Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme(BATS)were employed to investigate how boreal forests influence snow accumulation and ablation under the canopy.Mass balance and energetics of snow beneath a Scots pine canopy in Finland at different stages of the 2003-2004 and 2004 2005 snow seasons are analyzed.For the fairly dense Scots pine forest,drop-off of the canopy-intercepted snow contributes,in some cases,twice as much to the underlying snowpack as the direct throughfall of snow.During early winter snow melting,downward turbulent sensible and condensation heat fluxes play a dominant role together with downward net longwave radiation.In the final stage of snow ablation in middle spring,downward net all- wave radiation dominates the snow melting.Although the downward sensible heat flux is comparable to the net solar radiation during this period,evaporative cooling of the melting snow surface makes the turbulent heat flux weaker than net radiation.Sensitivities of snow processes to leaf area index(LAI)indicate that a denser canopy speeds up early winter snowmelt,but also suppresses melting later in the snow season. Higher LAI increases the interception of snowfall,therefore reduces snow accumulation under the canopy during the snow season;this effect and the enhancement of downward longwave radiation by denser foliage outweighs the increased attenuation of solar radiation,resulting in earlier snow ablation under a denser canopy.The difference in sensitivities to LAI in two snow seasons implies that the impact of canopy density on the underlying snowpack is modulated by interannual variations of climate regimes.     

中国西天山季节性积雪热力特征分析

利用中国天山积雪雪崩站干、湿雪雪层内每隔5min一次的10层雪温数据,探讨了一次降雪过程后干、湿雪的雪层温度特征,对比分析了干、湿雪的雪面能量平衡方程中各分量的差异。结果表明:(1)整个冬半年积雪各层温度基本<0℃,雪温日变化振幅由雪面向下逐渐减小,积雪深层温度的波峰(谷)值稍滞后于积雪浅层温度极值1～2天。(2)湿雪冷中心的出现时间早于干雪,暖中心的出现时间晚于干雪,太阳辐射对湿雪的穿透深度大于干雪。(3)雪层温度振幅变化与能量吸收随雪深都呈指数衰减分布。积雪密度越大,吸收系数越小,穿透深度越大。(4)干雪雪面的感热通量和潜热通量几乎都为负值,积雪积累。湿雪雪面的潜热通量与感热通量方向相反,互相抵消,所以净辐射是导致湿雪消融的主要因素。     

An Assessment of CAMS-CSM in Simulating Land–Atmosphere Heat and Water Exchanges

The Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) has been devoted to developing a climate system model (CSM) to meet demand for climate simulation and prediction for the East Asian region. In this study, we evaluated the performance of CAMS-CSM in regard to sensible heat flux (H), latent heat flux (LE), surface temperature, soil moisture, and snow depth, focusing on the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project experiment, with the aim of participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6. We systematically assessed the simulation results achieved by CAMS-CSM for these variables against various reference products and ground observations, including the FLUXNET model tree ensembles H and LE data, Climate Prediction Center soil moisture data, snow depth climatology data, and Chinese ground observations of snow depth and winter surface temperature. We compared these results with data from the ECMWF Interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Our results indicated that CAMS-CSM simulations were better than or comparable to ERAInterim reanalysis for snow depth and winter surface temperature at regional scales, but slightly worse when simulating total column soil moisture. The root-mean-square differences of H in CAMS-CSM were all greater than those from the ERA-Interim reanalysis, but less than or comparable to those from GLDAS. The spatial correlations for H in CAMS-CSM were the lowest in nearly all regions, except for North America. CAMS-CSM LE produced the lowest bias in Siberia, North America, and South America, but with the lowest spatial correlation coefficients. Therefore, there are still scopes for improving H and LE simulations in CAMS-CSM, particularly for LE.