水氡突跳的判断与发震时间的预报——以姑咱水氡为例

水氡测值大幅度超出正常变化范围,则视为突跳。但引起突跳的原因是多方面的。有许多非地震也能引起氡值的突变,笔者将另文讨论。下面仅就资料处理上如何判断突跳提出探讨。水氡测值异常达到多大幅度才算够格的突跳呢?下面以姑咱1972年3月至1980     

宁波ZK03井动水位观测中的干扰异常现象分析

通过对宁波地震台ZK03井动水位9年多的观测资料分析,发现该井动水位观测中主要存在3个方面非人为因素干扰引起的异常现象.①强降雨干扰引起的异常,特征为测值阶跃式上升,但变化幅度不大,易识别;②气压突变引起的干扰,为测值脉冲式向上突跳,但不多见;③公用数采接触不良干扰,引起的是整点测值大幅度上下振荡,结果造成观测数据无效...     

地闪对崇明地震台地球物理观测的干扰

通过对比崇明地区地闪及崇明地震台地球物理观测资料,发现受地闪引起的电磁场变化的直接作用或对仪器元件的间接作用,地磁、地电、电磁扰动和水位观测干扰比例较高,干扰幅度与地闪距离及形成的电流强度有关。具体干扰形态如下:①对电磁扰动干扰表现为单向突跳和测值的整体抬升;②对地磁测项干扰表现为正负方向的单点突跳;③对大地电场干扰表现为大幅震荡;④对水位观测干扰表现为大幅突跳。     

地闪对崇明地震台地球物理观测的干扰

通过对比崇明地区地闪及崇明地震台地球物理观测资料,发现受地闪引起的电磁场变化的直接作用或对仪器元件的间接作用,地磁、地电、电磁扰动和水位观测干扰比例较高,干扰幅度与地闪距离及形成的电流强度有关。具体干扰形态如下：①对电磁扰动干扰表现为单向突跳和测值的整体抬升;②对地磁测项干扰表现为正负方向的单点突跳;③对大地电场干扰表现为大幅震荡;④对水位观测干扰表现为大幅突跳。     

数字化体应变仪观测值突跳的分析

山东长清台数字化体应变仪观测曲线自1999年以来出现几次形态类似的大幅度突跳,为正确认识这类现象,在长清台做了交直流切换对观测值影响试验,并对水位、气压资料进行综合分析。研究结果表明,水位、气压、电源切换等因素不会引起体应变仪观测曲线的突跳。对比其他类似观测分析推测,这类突跳可能与“慢地震”事件或“岩孔崩落”现象有关。     

天津王4井抽水观测水汞影响因素的探讨

王4井因受井区地热开发的影响,于2008年12月断流停测。2010年对原观测井口装置进行改造,开始进行抽水观测水汞试验研究。在新的观测方式下,为确保观测数据稳定、可靠,本文从抽水观测的观测条件方面,对不同取样位置和抽水时间对水汞测值的影响进行了试验。试验结果表明,不同抽水时间和不同取样位置抽水观测对水汞测值影响不大,这一结论与水汞本身的化学特性相一致。认为在没有自流井的地区,只要选择灵敏的观测点使用抽水方式采样,固定观测条件,依然可以进行水汞监测。     

四川水氡测值突跳异常与地震

在四川开展水氡前兆观测的初期,部分水氡点的水氡测值突跳异常很好地对应了其可预测范围内的中强以上地震。水氡测值突跳异常曾作为松潘—平武和盐源—宁蒗等地震预报的重要依据。但在水氡观测至今的完整时间段内,水氡突跳异常总体表现出对应率低,漏报率高的现象。多次预报攻关研究结果显示,水氡观测的异常表现是多种多样的,水氡测值突跳异常只是其中的表现之一。在今后四川及邻区的中强以上地震预报实践中,水氡测值突跳异常仍可作为地震短临预报的重要参考。     

基于GPS技术研究新疆巴楚—伽师6.8级地震的地壳形变特征

利用多期流动GPS观测成果及乌什、塔什库尔干GPS站连续观测资料结果,对2003年2月24日巴楚-伽师6.8级地震前后的地壳形变特征进行了讨论.认为震前震中附近各点以15～20 mm左右的速率向NNW或NNE方向运动并在震中及邻近地区产生高剪应变值集中区,震后震中附近各点运动速率却减为几毫米;震前出现的高剪应变值集中区震后消失.同时乌什、塔什库尔干GPS连续观测站时间序列在震前2～3月也表现出大幅度突跳.     

用自记测氡仪在某些台站观测到的日变现象

大震前的水氡突跳,是指震前某日测氡值明显高出相邻日期的观测值的异常现象。渤海地震、海城地震和松潘地震等大震前一些水氡观测点出现明显突跳,大都是每日一至两次取样进行观测的。这里简单介绍采用自记测氡仪在一些测点观测到的日变现象。图1是北京一喷气井(无线电研究所院内)的气氡观测值曲线,一天内有较大变化,但逐时值缓变无突跳。图2是福州水化站自流井(热水)水氡观测值曲线,傍晚至夜间有高     

库尔勒断层氡气观测及观测资料分析初探

简要介绍了库尔勒断层氡气测孔周围的地质构造条件及仪器设置,并对两年多的观测资料进行分析。认为Ａ道较好地记录到１９９５年３月１９日和硕Ｍｓ５．１级地震及５月２日乌苏Ｍｓ５．８级地震前的突跳异常;同时利用Ｂ道氡资料与气温,气压作了多元回归分析,认为Ｂ道连续两年多出现的长时间,大幅度变化的异常现象主要是受气温,气压季节性变化的影响。     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Foreword

Destructive earthquakes have caused great damage in China and the United States and collapsing buildings havecaused many deaths and injuries. The field of earthquake engineering studies earthquake hazards, the occurrence ofearthquakes of various magnitudes, the nature of the ground shaking during an earthquake, the vibration of structuresduring earthquakes, the strengthening of existing structures and the design of new structures to be earthquake resistant,and finally, how to cope with earthquake damage and restore a city to normal functioning. Such efforts are in progressin both countries, but unfortunately, the language barrier interferes with the free flow of information between China andthe Untied States. It would be mutually beneficial if some means could be developed to promote the exchangeof information across the Pacific Ocean. This new journal has been established for this purpose and its success willbe an important step in promoting earthquake engineering in China and the United States.     

WORLD ASSOCIATION FOR SEDIMENTATION AND EROSION RESEARCH(WASER)

正President:Giampaolo Di Silvio,Italy Vice Presidents:Ulrich C.E.Zanke,Germany Zhao-yin Wang,China The World Association for Sedimentation and Erosion Research(WASER),inaugurated on Oct.19,2004,is an independent non-governmental,non-profit organization.The mission of WASER is to promote international co-operation on the study     

Enhancing remote sensing research on global change to improve our understanding on Earth system processes

正Global Change includes climate change and other environmental changes caused by the joint interaction among various layers of Earth. From the positive side, global change provides new opportunities to human and other living forms on Earth. In the meantime, it creates tremendous challenges and negative impact. At present, the negative impacts have reached all primary processes of the global ecosystem and every aspect of human society, especially causing degradation of the ecosystem. For instance, intensive deforestation causes decline of biodiversity; global warming causes sea level rise and increases