基于地理信息的可持续发展目标(SDGs)量化评估

执行期为2016-2030年的联合国《2030年可持续发展议程》提出了17项可持续发展目标(Sustainability Development Goals,以下简称SDGs)。为切实做好其后续落实与评估措施,联合国提出了SDGs量化评估的总体思路,要求各成员国综合利用统计和地理信息,对本国可持续发展进程进行定量评估与分析,以发现存在的问题,提出改进措施。目前这项工作刚刚起步,评估指标体系尚待完善和本土化,基础数据的完善与更新任重道远,提取计算方法亟待开发或优化,远不能满足SDGs量化评估与持续监测的实践需要。我国是世界测绘大国,地理信息资源建设居于国际前列,现代通讯技术及基础设施遍及城乡,理应发挥大国作用,加快这方面的试点研究。这既可服务国家和各地可持续发展的实践,又可为国际社会做示范、出经验。此外,还应该加强这一领域的基础研究,以更好地指导SDGs量化评估与持续监测的技术研发与应用实践。     

Hydrological modelling in the anthroposphere: predicting local runoff in a heavily modified high-alpine catchment

Hydrological models within inflow forecasting systems for high-alpine hydropower reservoirs can provide valuable information as part of a decision support system for the improvement of hydropower production or flood retention. The information, especially concerning runoff, is however rarely available for the calibration of the hydrological models used. Therefore, a method is presented to derive local runoff from secondary information for the calibration of the model parameters of the rainfallrunoff model COSERO. Changes in water levels in reservoirs, reservoir outflows, discharge measurements at water intakes and in transport lines are thereby used to derive the local, “natural” flow for a given sub-catchment. The proposed method is applied within a research study for the ÖBB Infrastructure Railsystem division in the Stubache catchment in the central Austrian Alps. Here, the ÖBB operates the hydropower scheme “Kraftwerksgruppe Stubachtal”, which consists of 7 reservoirs and 4 hydropower stations. The hydrological model has been set up considering this human influences and the high natural heterogeneity in topography and land cover, including glaciers. Overall, the hydrological model performs mostly well for the catchment with highest NSE values of 0.78 for the calibration and 0.79 for the validation period, also considering the use of homogeneous parameter fields and the uncertainty of the derived local discharge values. The derived runoff data proved to be useful information for the model calibration. Further analysis, examining the water balance and its components as well as snow cover, showed satisfactory simulation results. In conclusion, a unique runoff dataset for a small scale high-alpine catchment has been created to establish a hydrological flow prediction model which in a further step can be used for improved and sustainable hydropower management.     

基于加权Voronoi图的北京市湿地功能分区研究

湿地功能分区是城市湿地生态系统健康恢复、管理改善,以及资源可持续利用的重要前提。本文以北京湿地为例,利用客观赋权的主成分分析法对湿地生态服务功能进行综合评价;并结合空间分析中的Voronoi图空间分区方法,通过利用牛顿-断裂点模型确定属性权重的主要步骤,构建基于加权Voronoi图的城市湿地功能分区模型,开展"自下而上"定量化的北京湿地功能分区研究。结果表明:(1)北京湿地功能综合评价中,密云水库湿地的功能综合值最大,表明该湿地生态服务功能作用最重要。(2)北京湿地功能分区分为三级框架,其中包括4个一级核心湿地功能区、15个二级核心湿地功能区、43个三级核心湿地单元。(3)湿地资源功能价值量与湿地斑块空间关系的相结合,实现了属性和空间双重距离约束的湿地功能分区,促进了湿地生态系统服务价值评估在决策管理中的深入应用,为城市湿地功能区划提供技术支持。     

Risk Assessment of Marine Environments Along the South China Sea and North Indian Ocean on the Basis of a Weighted Bayesian Network

Marine environments have a considerable influence on the construction of the Chinese 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road. Thus, an objective and quantitative risk assessment of marine environments has become a key problem that must be solved urgently. To deal with the uncertainty in marine environmental risks caused by complex factors and fuzzy mechanisms, a new assessment technique based on a weighted Bayesian network(BN) is proposed. Through risk factor analysis, node selection, structure construction, and parameter learning, we apply the proposed weighted BN-based assessment model for the risk assessment and zonation of marine environments along the Maritime Silk Road. Results show that the model effectively fuses multisource and uncertain environmental information and provides reasonable risk assessment results, thereby offering technical support for risk prevention and disaster mitigation along the Maritime Silk Road.     

Acacia mearnsii management in a South African National Parks:SWOT analysis using hot topics in biological invasion as a guide

The assessment of the policy framework governing Invasive Alien Species(IAS) control is of critical importance in conservation. The undertaking of a SWOT analysis of such a framework is necessary because it enhances the efficacy of IAS control. The aim of this study is to carry out a SWOT analysis of the policy framework guiding the control of the spreading of Acacia mearnsii and other IAS in the Golden Gate Highlands National Park in South Africa,as well as the implementation of restorative measures in the park and adjacent communities in line with the recommendations of the Convention on Biodiversity. A comparative analysis of this framework and the hierarchical framework that was developed during the European Union Conference on Freshwater Invasives- Networking for Strategy in 2013 is undertaken. The results indicate the need to strengthen parkcommunity relations,upgrade existing legislation,and boost the technical capacity of South African national parks to identify,detect,monitor and predict IAS invasions,both within the parks and their surroundings. This knowledge is important for developing future policies on IAS control in South Africa.     

Impact of regional development on carbon emission: Empirical evidence across countries

Global warming is recently an urgent issue worldwide. The increase of carbon emissions induced by human economic activi- ties has become a major driving force behind global climate change. Thus, as a matter of social responsibility, reasonable carbon con- straints should be implemented to ensure environmental security and sustainable development for every country. Based on a summary of studies that examined the relationship between carbon emissions and regional development, this paper shows that human activity-led carbon emission is caused by the combination of several influencing factors, including population size, income level, and technical pro- gress. Thus, a quantitative model derived from IPAT-ImPACT-Kaya series and STIRPAT models was established. Empirical analysis using multivariate nonlinear regression demonstrated that the origins of growing global carbon emission included the increasing influ- encing elasticity of the population size and the declining negative effect of technical progress. Meanwhile, in context of classification of country groups at different income levels, according to the comparison of fluctuating patterns of the influencing elasticity, technical progress was found as the main factor influencing carbon emission levels in high-income countries, and population size might he the controlling factor in middle-income countries. However, for low-income countries, the nonlinear relationship between carbon emission and its influencing factors was not significant, whereas population growth was identified as an important potential driving force in future carbon emissions. This study can therefore provide a reference for the formulation of policies on carbon constraints, especially to de- velop more efficient carbon mitigating policies for countries at different income levels.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Acacia mearnsii</Emphasis> management in a South African National Parks: SWOT analysis using hot topics in biological invasion as a guide

The assessment of the policy framework governing Invasive Alien Species (IAS) control is of critical importance in conservation. The undertaking of a SWOT analysis of such a framework is necessary because it enhances the efficacy of IAS control. The aim of this study is to carry out a SWOT analysis of the policy framework guiding the control of the spreading of Acacia mearnsii and other IAS in the Golden Gate Highlands National Park in South Africa, as well as the implementation of restorative measures in the park and adjacent communities in line with the recommendations of the Convention on Biodiversity. A comparative analysis of this framework and the hierarchical framework that was developed during the European Union Conference on Freshwater Invasives - Networking for Strategy in 2013 is undertaken. The results indicate the need to strengthen park-community relations, upgrade existing legislation, and boost the technical capacity of South African national parks to identify, detect, monitor and predict IAS invasions, both within the parks and their surroundings. This knowledge is important for developing future policies on IAS control in South Africa.     

城市空间形态与特征的定量分析——以重庆市主城区为例

本文梳理了城市空间形态研究的理论与方法,系统分析了城市空间形态研究的趋势。鉴此,构建了城市形态定量化研究的测度指标体系,并以RS和GIS技术制定了城市形态定量化分析方法框架,对重庆市主城区空间形态进行了系统的定量分析。在城市用地扩展的时空特征上采用了面积增长量、城市用地扩展速度、扩展强度,及各方位用地扩展强度等指标;在城市外部空间形态特征方面采用了紧凑度、分形维数和形状指数等指标。结果表明:主城区空间形态演变受其重大事件影响较大,呈"突变"和"整合"相结合的演化过程;重庆市主城区空间扩展呈现明显的阶段性,以集约式和内涵式扩展为主;由于受主城区扩展的各向异性影响,主城区扩展以北向和西向扩展为主。本研究为城市空间形态的定量分析提供了参考。     

Uncertainty Assessment of Soil Erosion Model Using Particle Filtering

Recent advances in computer with geographic information system(GIS) technologies have allowed modelers to develop physics-based models for modeling soil erosion processes in time and space.However, it has been widely recognized that the effect of uncertainties on model predictions may be more significant when modelers apply such models for their own modeling purposes.Sources of uncertainty involved in modeling include data, model structural, and parameter uncertainty.To deal with the uncertain parameters of a catchment-scale soil erosion model(CSEM) and assess simulation uncertainties in soil erosion, particle filtering modeling(PF) is introduced in the CSEM.The proposed method, CSEM-PF, estimates parameters of non-linear and non-Gaussian systems, such as a physics-based soil erosion model by assimilating observation data such as discharge and sediment discharge sequences at outlets.PF provides timevarying feasible parameter sets as well as uncertainty bounds of outputs while traditional automatic calibration techniques result in a time-invariant global optimal parameter set.CSEM-PF was applied to a small mountainous catchment of the Yongdamdam in Korea for soil erosion modeling and uncertainty assessment for three historical typhoon events.Finally, the most optimal parameter sets and uncertainty bounds of simulation of both discharge and sediment discharge at each time step of the study events are provided.     

基于空间抽样的区域地表覆盖遥感制图产品精度评估——以中国陕西省为例

地表覆盖数据是研究气候变化、生态环境、地理国情和人文经济等方面不可或缺的基础信息,因此其质量的优劣将直接影响相关决策的可靠性。本文针对我国研制的首套30 m分辨率全球地表覆盖数据产品,通过分析其海量、多维、非均质等空间特点,对传统的制图产品精度评估方法提出了改进：以地表类型进行分层抽样,样本量的计算采用优化模型并以地类所占面积比为权重逐层分配,样本的布设则考虑层内对象之间的空间相关性,在地表数据自然分布的基础上,通过分析空间相关性指数来提高样本的代表性和精度评估结果的可靠性。因此,本文提出针对区域地表覆盖遥感制图产品的空间分层抽样方法,其将精度评估分成抽样方案（样本的定量估计）和布设方案（样本的空间布设）2个部分,并以中国陕西省地表覆盖产品为例进行区域精度评估实验分析,从全区7大类地表类型数据中抽取1467个样本,经过样本检验与精度计算,该区域产品的总体精度为79.96%,Kappa系数为0.74。实验结果表明,本文提出的基于空间抽样的精度评估方法可行可靠,实验区域产品质量较好,并为后续针对全球范围的地表覆盖产品精度评估方法提供了参考。     

利用等面积格网模型的GNSS PDOP高效评估方法

为解决位置精度衰减因子( position dilution of precision, PDOP )监测评估中经常使用的等经纬度间隔格网模型（equal-interval of longitude and latitude grid, GRID_ELL）存在全球格网点分布不合理、评估统计结果有偏差、计算和存储效率低等问题,进一步开展全球PDOP长周期实时监测服务,引入两种等面积格网模型：等弧长格网模型（equal-arch-length grid, GRID_EAL）和正二十面体球面格网模型( icosahedron-based grid, GRID_IB ),并分析其与GRID_ELL模型之间的差异。结果表明,两种等面积格网模型能够显著改善GRID_ELL模型全球格网点分布不均匀的现象以及目前全球PDOP监测评估统计结果中的偏差。重点针对不同格网间距的GRID_EAL模型适用性进行测试,结果表明,5°间隔的GRID_EAL模型能在保持全球PDOP监测评估准确性的同时,在计算效率和存储上带来36.3%和34.1%的提升与优化。     

基于特征筛选与差分进化算法优化的滑坡危险性评估方法

突发性地质灾害危险性评估对灾害防治与风险管理具有重要意义。由于不同地区影响灾害发生的因子各不相同,实际评估过程中难以全面客观地选取适宜的评估因子。机器学习对处理灾害系统的高维非线性问题独具优势,但因模型难以调优而评估效果有限。本文尝试提出一种双向优化的滑坡危险性评估方法：在构建因子敏感性指数开展定量敏感性分析的基础上,结合重要性分析、相关性分析、共线性分析构建四维(Four-Dimensional, 4D)特征筛选法用于评估因子综合优选;为克服模型难以调优的问题,引入差分进化(Differential Evolution, DE)算法优化支持向量机(Support Vector Machine, SVM)与多层感知机(Multi-Layer Perceptron, MLP) 2种推广能力较强的机器学习模型。最后,以福建省滑坡为例,开展评估方法研究。研究表明：4D特征筛选法能更加客观全面地选取适宜性更高的危险性评估因子,从而降低数据维度、减少信息冗余以提升评估模型性能;DE算法对SVM与MLP具有显著的优化效果,有益于增强模型滑坡危险性的评估准确度,DE-SVM、DE-MLP相较于未优化前模型的AUC值分别提升了4.43%与4.37%;基于双向优化的滑坡危险性评估结果表明,降雨与土地利用类型对福建省滑坡发生具有重要影响作用,福建省滑坡极高危险区普遍年均降雨较高、地形复杂多变,极低危险区主要位于东南沿海一带及闽江流域两侧。本研究为滑坡危险性评估中的影响因子客观选取与机器学习模型调优提供了一定思路。     

地区级实景三维模型色彩均衡方法实验

自2020年起各省相继启动"实景三维中国"建设,小面积单一场景实景三维建模向地区级全域实景三维建模转变成为一种常态,因量变引起的小区域建模中易被忽略的技术问题也日益凸显,如三维模型成果色彩不均衡问题。由于采集设备、天气情况、地形地貌及航摄状态等诸多要素的影响,地区级实景三维模型成果整体的目视效果往往存在差异。本文以济宁市主城区实景三维建模项目为例,探讨地区级实景三维模型成果色彩均衡的技术方法。结果表明:采用基于模型纹理贴图色彩均衡的方法可以有效提高模型成果整体的目视效果,同时相较于基于原始影像预处理的模型色彩均衡方法,该方法效率提高了9倍。     

Adaptation management of mountain tourism service: the case of the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow River

Mountain areas are often rich in ecological diversity and recreational opportunities. Mountain tourism is thought to be an effective and important means for maintaining and expanding rural economies and, thus, improving the living conditions of rural societies. As mountain tourism service research is a professional field with several disciplines involved, a multi-disciplinary management pIatform is needed and it facilitates participation in sustainable mountain development by diverse stakeholders. With the source regions of the Yangtze and the Yellow River as a case study, this paper presents a conceptual framework for an adaptation management of mountain tourism services according to technical, policy, social and economic dimensions. The framework is based on a vulnerability assessment of mountain ecosystems, and can serve as a reference for the development of tourism service in other mountain areas.     

碳排放和减碳的社会经济代价研究进展与方法探究

碳排放和减碳的社会经济影响与代价评估日益受到学术界和决策者的关注,本文综合分析了全球范围内碳排放与减碳社会经济影响的重要科学问题和国内外研究现状,基于卫星最新观测到的全球CO₂非均匀分布的事实,针对温控1.5 ℃和2 ℃阈值情景,探讨了全球二氧化碳非均匀动态分布与地表温度时空关系,全球二氧化碳非均匀动态分布状况下主要国家碳排放空间评价以及温控1.5 ℃和2 ℃阈值情景下中国碳排放和减碳社会经济代价评估等问题可采取的技术模型方案,并提出了构建新气候变化经济学的理论方法与技术体系。本文构建的技术路线和研究方法拟为国家制订各项应对碳排放和减碳战略与对策、减缓气候变化并实现可持续转型、提升中国在应对气候变化领域的国际话语权等方面提供决策支持。     

Evaluation and Influence Factor of Green Efficiency of China's Agricultural Innovation from the Perspective of Technical Transformation

Agricultural innovation is important for the green transformation of agriculture. Based on the perspective of technology transformation, this paper builds a theoretical analysis framework and evaluation index system for green efficiency of agricultural innovation,and discusses the evolution laws and influencing factors of the green efficiency of China's agricultural innovation from 2005 to 2017 utilizing the DEA model, Malmquist index, and Tobit regression analysis. The results show that: 1) The overall green efficiency of China's agricultural innovation is not high, the green efficiency of agricultural innovation in eastern China is mainly driven by pure technical efficiency, while that in central and western China is mainly driven by the scale efficiency. The green efficiency of agricultural innovation shows significant spatial differences, and the low efficiency and relatively low-efficiency regions moved to central and southeastern China. 2) Technical progress is the main force affecting the change of green total factor productivity of China's agricultural innovation, seeing a trend of decrease followed by an increase. Pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency exhibit an increasing-decreasing trend, and gradually transform into key factors that restrict the improvement of the green total factor productivity of agricultural innovation. 3) Agricultural technologies' diffusion, absorption, and implementation are three influencing factors of the green efficiency of agricultural innovation. The local level of informatization, the number of agricultural technicians in enterprises and institutions, average education level of residents, and the level of agricultural mechanization have positive impacts on the promotion of the green efficiency of agricultural innovation, promoting the diffusion, absorption and implementation of agricultural innovation technology can significantly improve the green efficiency of agricultural innovation.     

基于多智能体的城市洪涝灾害动态脆弱性计算模型构建

随着全球气候变化加剧和城市化进程的发展,暴雨洪涝灾害对城市社会经济活动造成的影响越来越严重。作为量化灾害影响程度、社会经济损失与风险评估的重要方法,城市洪涝灾害脆弱性研究对洪涝灾害风险管理与规划具有重要意义。目前,城市脆弱性的内涵进一步延伸,脆弱性指标体系不断丰富,所取得的研究成果能够反映一定时期内城市洪涝灾害脆弱性的整体特征,却无法同时有效地解决城市洪涝灾害脆弱性的空间非均匀性问题和动态计算问题。本文从脆弱性的动态特征出发,提出了城市洪涝灾害动态脆弱性计算方法,建立了城市洪涝灾害脆弱性量化模型与面向洪涝灾害脆弱性计算的多智能体模型,形成了基于多智能体的城市洪涝灾害脆弱性计算方法。在NetLogo平台上,利用智能体模型对浙江省丽水市城区的动态脆弱性进行了仿真模拟。研究结果表明该模型有助于发现不同时空条件下城市存在的“脆弱区”,为城市洪涝灾害脆弱性的时空分异特征分析、区域脆弱性的精细化评价提供方法支撑,能够为缓解措施的实施和洪涝灾害的精细化管理提供有效指导。     

区域人类活动强度定量模型的建立与应用

区域人类活动是生态系统演变发展的重要驱动因子,定量评价区域人类活动强度是分析区域人类活动对生态系统影响的基础。本文提出了一套将区域人类活动强度定量化的方法:首先,通过选取人口密度、经济密度、人均国民生产总值、农业产值和普通中学在校中学生数等17个代表性指标,构建了在社会、经济和文化三方面反映区域人类活动强度的评价指标体系;然后,采用层次分析法获取各指标的权重;最后,利用加权法将各指标综合获取区域人类活动定量化指数。将本方法应用于中国武川县、蒙古达尔汗乌拉省和俄罗斯扎卡缅斯克地区,并验证了其有效性。经计算,2000年前述三地的区域人类活动指数,依次为0.78,0.54,0.16,即,自南向北区域人类活动强度逐渐降低;武川县20世纪80年代中期、1995年及2000年的区域人类活动指数,分别为0.37,0.50,0.78,即,区域人类活动强度随时间逐渐增加。通过对三个研究区的自然环境和区域人类活动的梯度分析,以及武川县区域人类活动的发展过程分析表明,该方法可有效地定量评价区域人类活动强度,为区域人类活动强度定量化相关研究提供技术支持。     

Assessment of Habitat Suitability in the Upper Reaches of the Min River in China

Habitat richness influences and even determines biological diversity. Plant habitat suitability assessment can provide technical guidance and information support for ecological restoration. Thirteen factors in three categories of terrain, meteorology and soil were chosen to build a habitat suitability assessment index framework in the Upper Reaches of the Min River, based on the local natural environment and the actual influencing factors of vegetative growth. Combined with the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and entropy method, which were used to calculate weights of indexes, habitat suitability was studied by using a multi-objective linear weighting model and geographic information systems(GIS) spatial analysis techniques. The assessment results are as follows: Altitude, soil stability, aspect and slope have more important effects on plant habitat suitability in the Upper Reaches of the Min River, and their weights are 0.311, 0.260, 0.198 and 0.125, respectively. Suitable and sub-suitable habitats cover 4431.80 km2 and 6171.12 km2, respectively; most of which are distributed along both sides of rivers and have higher suitability. Unsuitable habitats cover the largest area(6679.76 km2), accounting for 29.83% of the whole area; and the worst unsuitable habitats are 5107.23 km2(22.81%); they account for more than half of the studyarea. These results indicate that the plant habitat in the Upper Reaches of the Min River is poor and ecological restoration is both urgent and difficult. Therefore, based on the principle of taking measures suitable to the habitat in ecological restoration projects, ecological and engineering measures should be combined to have better effects, while increasing the strength of ecological protection.     

城市总体规划环境影响的GIS模拟与评价分析

城市环境影响评价是城市规划与可持续发展中的一个重要问题.从规划部门对设计方案进行分析比较、定量评估的实际需求出发,采用地理信息数据处理与模拟等技术,归纳了GIs的评估指标体系.针对城市总体规划方案,将GIs数据引人气象模型,建立城市规划气象GIs论证评价技术路线;对规划方案进行空间概化、划分并识别单元特征,通过土地利用...