水资源调配中PRED综合论证的初步研究

水资源调配是解决水资源利用问题的一项开源措施,必须考虑人口、资源、环境、发展的综合协调（简称ＰＲＥＤ）,分析水资源中的调配问题与ＰＲＥＤ之间的关系,指出ＰＲＥＤ综合分析是水资源调配与利用的一个重要基础。提出ＰＲＥＤ论证的基本思想、指标体系、论证模式、论证流程,并对南水北调河南省境内地级市进行水资源利用的ＰＲＥＤ综合论证,给出诊断结果与利用方略。     

Estimating the fluvial sediment input to the coastal sediment budget: A case study of Ghana

Knowledge of fluvial sediment supply to the coastal sediment budget is important for the assessment of the impacts on coastal stability. Such knowledge is valuable for designing coastal engineering schemes and the development of shoreline management planning policies. It also facilitates understanding of the connection between rivers in the hinterland and adjoining coastal systems. Ghana's coast has many fluvial sediment sources and this paper provides the first quantitative assessments of their contributions to the coastal sediment budget. The methods use largely existing data and attempt to cover all of Ghana's significant coastal rivers. Initially work was hindered by insufficient direct measured data. However, the problem was overcome by the application of a regression approach, which provides an estimated sediment yield for non-gauged rivers based on data from gauged rivers with similar characteristics. The regression approach was effective because a regional coherence in behaviour was determined between those rivers, where direct measured data were available. The results of the assessment revealed that Ghana's coast is dissected by many south-draining rivers, stream and lagoons. These rivers, streams and lagoons supply significant amounts of sediment to coastal lowlands and therefore contribute importantly to beaches. Anthropogenic impoundment of fluvial sediment, especially the Akosombo dam on the Volta River, has reduced the total fluvial sediment input to the coast from about 71 × 10⁶ m³/a before 1964 (pre-Akosombo dam) to about 7 × 10⁶ m³/a at present (post-Akosombo dam). This sharp reduction threatened the stability of the east coast and prompted an expensive ($83 million) defence scheme to be implemented to protect 8.4 km-long coastline at Keta. Sections of Ghana's coast are closely connected to the hinterland through the fluvial sediment input from local rivers. Therefore, development in the hinterland that alters the fluvial sediment input from those local rivers could have significant effects on the coast. There is the need, therefore, to ensure that catchment management plans and coastal management plans are integrated or interconnected.     

Transnational development networks: bringing development and postcolonial approaches into dialogue

This paper explores some of the ways in which a dialogue between development and postcolonial scholarship might contribute to the theorizing of transnational networks in contemporary development. It does so through consideration of three inter-related themes: epistemologies, spatialities and ethico-politics. The discussion of epistemologies points to the potential benefit in reworking the analysis of the relationship between structure and agency in networks, whereas the discussion of spatialities focuses attention on the interface between the global and the local. Dialogue between development and postcolonial approaches also creates space for considering the politics and ethics of transnational development networks. In particular, this discussion prompts challenges around how to ethically research subaltern knowledge in transnational development networks, including how to trace the translation and redeployment of subaltern knowledge through networks. Consideration of these themes highlights not just overlaps and disjunctures between development and postcolonial approaches, but opportunities for further dialogue and future research on transnational development networks. To illustrate the points made in the paper, examples are drawn from Slum/Shack Dwellers International (SDI), a transnational network of civil society organizations working with urban poverty.     

The persistent water problems of Lima,Peru: Neoliberalism,institutional failures and social inequalities

The contingent relation between water governance and nature neoliberalization has defined most interventions in the water sector around the world in recent years. In the case of the Peruvian capital Lima, the provision of water and sanitation services in the last two decades has been the object of investments and institutional reforms strongly influenced by economic neoliberalism. This essay examines the evolution of these neoliberalizing tendencies, noting the internal disputes, necessary adjustments and underlying problems of water sufficiency in the metropolitan region. The empirical results suggest that, rather than a straightforward process, the neoliberalization of water in Lima has advanced according to political opportunities and technico‐operational constraints. The water reforms implemented in the 1990s – when the goal of privatization met political opposition – can be contrasted with the more recent phase in the 2000s, when more flexible mechanisms, such as public‐private partnerships, have facilitated public acceptance. Despite the renovation of the infrastructure, the modernization of the water sector has failed to address persistent water management problems, namely the discriminatory treatment of low income residents, the chaotic expansion of the metropolitan area and the risk of future water shortages.     

河西走廊的水资源问题与节水对策

建立节水型社会是我国的一项基本政策, 也是解决河西走廊水资源问题的战略选择。文章通过对河西走廊水资源开发、利用中存在的主要问题及其原因的分析, 从强化政府的水资源调控功能, 实行水资源的统一管理; 深化水资源产权制度改革, 努力探索水资源市场化管理的运行机制; 建立农民用水者协会, 探索和完善用水户"参与式管理"模式; 不断加大农业产业结构调整力度, 发展高效、节水、特色农业; 发展高新节水技术, 加强节水水利工程建设, 进一步提高水资源利用率; 控制污水排放, 防止水质污染等方面提出了解决河西走廊水资源问题的对策措施。     

Questioning the water wars rationale: a case study of the Indus Waters Treaty

The water wars rationale predicts that countries will wage war to safeguard their access to water resources, especially if there is water scarcity, competitive use and the countries are enemies due to a wider conflict. Following this argument, India and Pakistan should have fought a war over the Indus basin instead of negotiating the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. In explaining this Indo–Pakistan cooperation which is specifically over water, the critical feature that emerges is that through cooperation the countries were able to safeguard their long–term water supply. In other words, cooperation is water rational. Using the Indus basin experience, the underlying logic of the water wars rationale is questioned, in particular, the use of public statements by key decisionmakers as evidence of future water wars and is shown to be wanting.     

山东省农业生产条件现代化可持续发展研究

农业生产条件现代化是实现农业现代化的重要基础 ,包括农业机械化、农业水利化、农业化学化和农业电气化 4个方面。本文根据山东省近 2 0年的统计资料 ,全面分析了山东省在由传统农业向现代化农业转变过程中 ,在农业生产条件方面所取得的进展和明显存在的问题。如农业机械发展结构欠合理、农田水利工程建设标准不高、化肥施用构成比例不当等 ,针对上述问题 ,提出实现农业生产条件现代化可持续发展的战略措施 :1完善农机服务体系 ,大力开展农机社会化、市场化服务 ;2狠抓以水利为重点的农田基础设施建设 ,提高农田水利建设的科技含量 ;3加大对磷肥使用宣传力度 ,降低化肥农药造成的环境污染 ;4继续大力实施“科教兴农”战略 ,加速农业科技成果转化。     

西北地区生态环境建设和水资源可持续利用的若干问题

通过水资源特征分析及水资源利用的评价, 论述了水资源持续利用可持续发展存在的水资源紧缺、生态环境恶化等问题。提出了水资源利用可持续发展对策: 开源节流、以节水为主, 坚持水费改革, 改善生态环境等措施。认为西北地区社会经济要发展, 保护和改善生态环境是前提, 水资源可持续利用是关键。只有珍惜、保护、合理利用和科学管理水资源, 重视保护和改善生态环境, 解决好生态环境建设的体制、机制和投资, 提高其效益, 才能确保水资源的可持续利用, 促进西北社会经济可持续发展。     

周边地区地缘政治经济发展态势对我国区域格局的影响

经济一体化是经济全球化基础上的经济发展潮流，是最终实现经济全球化的区域性实践。但由于不同地区面临的地缘经济和地缘政治形势不同，因此，参与国际和国内区域一体化的程度及需要解决的问题也．不尽一致。本文结合我国社会经济发展的长期战略规划，试图对各地区周边的地缘政治和地缘经济环境及其对我国区域经济格局的影响做出科学的判断，并从中发现需要着重解决和突破的关键问题及重点领域，以便为我国各地区利用有利条件，对可能出现的地缘态势作出未雨绸缪的安排，促进区域经济的发展，提供可参考的依据。     

港资北移与粤港经济一体化研究

区域经济一体化已成为全球经济发展大趋势，一些经济一体化集团正逐步向政治协同化和军事一体化演进，将深刻地影响21世纪全球经济社会发展格局，在中国华南地区，港资北移推动了粤港经济垂直一体化，也造成了香港制造业空心化和粤港产业同构化，随着香港传统劳动密体型产业转移接近尾声，两地经济垂直一体化的动力正在消退，从资本流动视角，文章提出构建新的合作平台，通过两地联合设立发展基金，风险投资基金，为科技开发，传统产业技术改造和共同发展高新技术产业提供资金支持，共同推动粤港经济进入水平一体化的合作发展新阶段。     

Archipelagos and networks: urbanization and water privatization in the South

This paper examines the interrelationship between urbanization and water supply privatization in cities in the global South. The purpose of the paper is not to evaluate the impacts of privatization; rather, the paper analyses the differences in pathways and modes of water supply privatization, focusing on urban and contrasting with rural areas. A distinction is drawn between privatization (organizational change) and commercialization (institutional change) of water supply. Emphasis is placed upon the interrelationship between regulatory change (a shift from public to private management of water supply systems), human use of and access to water, and urban waterscapes. In contrast to metaphors of 'networks' so often applied in analyses of water management, the 'archipelago' is posited as a metaphor which better captures the complex overlapping strategies of water supply provision in urban areas in the South. Building on this metaphor, and in response to the 'public–private' dualism often invoked in studies of privatization, the paper outlines an alternative typology of water management in urban areas in the South. This typology foregrounds the concepts of the territorialization of corporate power as a means of understanding the articulation between privatization and urbanization processes in the South.     

中国区域知识资本时空差异及影响因素分析

以区域创新系统能力表征区域知识资本,对其不均衡地理演变及影响因素的分析表明：① 创新综合能力年际变异程度由东向西逐渐递减,东部与中西地区创新综合能力差异持续扩大。② 区域创新综合能力总体呈现东部沿海创新带、中部内陆创新片区及西部普遍低下的梯度式空间分布格局。③ 劳动力集中指数、人均资本形成额、经济民营化程度、基础设施水平及对外开放度是影响创新能力空间分异的主要驱动因素,而财政支出占比影响较小;各变量对创新综合能力影响的空间异质效应明显,对东中地区往往具有积极的促进作用,对西部地区多呈负向影响,强化了创新综合能力“东高西低”的分异特征。     

Development Optimization and Uncertainty Analysis Methods for Oil and Gas Reservoirs

Uncertainty complicates the development optimization of oil and gas exploration and production projects, but methods have been devised to analyze uncertainty and its impact on optimal decision-making. This paper compares two methods for development optimization and uncertainty analysis: Monte Carlo (MC) simulation and stochastic programming. Two example problems for a gas field development and an oilfield development are solved and discussed to elaborate the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Development optimization involves decisions regarding the configuration of initial capital investment and subsequent operational decisions. Uncertainty analysis involves the quantification of the impact of uncertain parameters on the optimum design concept. The gas field development problem is designed to highlight the differences in the implementation of the two methods and to show that both methods yield the exact same optimum design. The results show that both MC optimization and stochastic programming provide unique benefits, and that the choice of method depends on the goal of the analysis. While the MC method generates more useful information, along with the optimum design configuration, the stochastic programming method is more computationally efficient in determining the optimal solution. Reservoirs comprise multiple compartments and layers with multiphase flow of oil, water, and gas. We present a workflow for development optimization under uncertainty for these reservoirs, and solve an example on the design optimization of a multicompartment, multilayer oilfield development.     

中亚五国咸海流域水资源策略的博弈分析

中亚五国在咸海流域水资源分配与利用上的矛盾,随着社会经济发展对水资源需求的增加而变得日益突出,探寻各国对咸海流域水资源利用的策略,对中亚地区水资源合理分配、可持续发展和地区安全至关重要。运用博弈论方法,分析中亚各国对咸海流域水资源的分配诉求及水政策,梳理各国在咸海流域水资源问题上的合作历程,探讨中亚各国在水资源问题上采取不同策略的利弊得失。认为目前咸海流域利益得不到协调使中亚各国深陷水资源分配困局,“协调博弈”是当前令咸海流域水资源问题走出“囚徒困境”的首选,将会获得最佳报酬。各国相互信任、转变观念,以利益分配取代水量分配,实现真正意义上的国家间合作,才能从根本上解决流域水资源分配与利用的困局。     

对筑坝调控鄱阳湖水的思考

对鄱阳湖目前存在的问题、控湖后可产生的效益和解决控湖工程难题的途径作了一些思考，建议尽快筑坝控湖以提高湖泊效益。     

Criminal dons and extralegal security privatization in downtown Kingston,Jamaica

In cities across the world, neoliberal retrenchment, shrinking public expenditure and an emphasis on private‐public partnerships have resulted in the privatization of many services formerly provided by the state. The privatization of security has been one of the most significant shifts in this regard, with citizens becoming responsibilized for safeguarding their own physical integrity and material belongings. This transfer of state responsibility has had an important effect on the spatial organization of cities, as formerly public spaces become both privatized and militarized. Drawing on research in Kingston, Jamaica, this paper describes how new actors from criminal organizations to security companies move to fill these physical and social spaces. Arguing for an increased focus on spatial retreat from below, it highlights the extent to which an extralegal transformation of urban security and services takes place in marginalized areas, parallel to the better studied privatization of security services in affluent areas.     

场域理论视角下商业绅士化对周边老旧住区的影响——以成都大慈寺社区为例

以成都市大慈寺社区商业绅士化为例,基于布迪厄的场域理论,从不同行为主体的视角出发,分别分析了地方政府、开发商、绅士化群体、原住居民、周边商户及周边小区各自的利益诉求与资本获取,探寻商业绅士化空间对周边老旧住区的影响。研究发现：商业绅士化空间及其周边住区共同构成了一个绅士化场域,不同的行为主体在场域中获取和积累各自资本从而确立其社会实践地位。特别地,绅士化核心场域由地方政府、开发商和绅士化群体共同构成的利益联合体推动形成,体现一种至上而下的全球化资本逻辑运作;边缘场域由原住居民、周边商户和周边租户在周边小区构建而成,其受到了核心场域的支配和影响,与核心场域内的三类主体形成了动态互哺关系,从而逐渐产生新一轮绅士化进程,呈现一种至下而上的本土化资本发展逻辑。大慈寺社区商业绅士化中的核心场域与边缘场域之间存在着既相互分异又相互融合的复杂特征,构建了两者之间的循环发展路径,带动了中心城区的整体更新发展。研究填补了中国商业绅士化对于周边住区影响的理论空白,同时也对城市中心商业空间更新的良性改造提供一定参考价值。     

Confronting Capital Mobility

This article considers why urban scholars have made relatively little progress in recent decades in the identification and advancement of strategies for challenging the mobility of capital. It is suggested that the lack of progress is due, in part, to the failure of urban researchers to critically examine the politics of capital mobility. Politics is emphasized over other factors because an overemphasis on technical conditions and economic considerations has led to the "naturalization" of capital mobility and the depoliticization of the relationship between capital and place. Here the focus of critical inquiry is shifted onto the politics of capital mobility by examining how the mobility of capital has been naturalized by critical researchers in geography and related disciplines, and by exploring how alternative research agendas that challenge the assumption of capital mobility repoliticize the place-capital relationship and enable new forms of urban political research and practice.     

Progress in the Research on Benefit-sharing and Ecological Compensation Mechanisms for Transboundary Rivers

Transboundary rivers have important geopolitical and geo-economic connotations, but riparian states of transboundary rivers are often driven by their own rapid population growth and economic development to be-come involved in regional conflicts about the development and use of water resources. Therefore, finding a balance between the need for fair and reasonable development of water resources and the effective protection of environment from an ecological perspective has become a major problem faced by the international community. This paper begins with consideration of international water laws related to transboundary rivers and then reviews advances in the research on benefit-sharing, ecological compensation mechanisms, and adaptive management systems. We believe that existing international water laws form a complete legal system and that more attention needs to be paid to transboundary cooperation and sustainable water resource use. With respect to how transboundary water conflicts are resolved, there is a trend to move away from single water resource allocation (a zero-sum game) to benefit-sharing in order to achieve a win-win situation for riparian states, but there are still some difficulties in transboundary ecological compensation. In China, the central government has paid attention to horizontal ecological compensation between upstream and downstream, offering guidance to promote establishment of inter-province ecological compensation. Based on existing practice, horizontal ecological compensations are still in their infancy, small in scale, supported by a weak legal system, lacking market mechanisms to encourage their use and relying on fiscal transfers as the method of payment. In the future, China will need to intensify its research on legal system development, international cooperation, and benefit-sharing as these impact transboundary water resources. Because government can be seen as a management department with multiple identities (enabler, regulator and buyer), to improve adaptive transboundary ecological compensation mechanisms, government must develop as soon as possible data sharing platforms, standards of water consumption behaviors and intergovernmental policies (or ordinances).     

Watering the suburbs: distinction,conformity and the suburban garden

Research on domestic water use has conventionally been confined to understanding the role of physical variables such as rainfall and temperature in influencing patterns of consumption. In limiting research to this narrow focus, the significance of socio‐cultural variables has been largely ignored. This paper seeks to develop socio‐cultural understandings of domestic water use by examining water consumption as part of a broader set of consumption practices associated with suburban space. In particular, the socio‐cultural dimensions are explored on a local scale through an exploration of water‐use patterns associated with the new suburban garden: an important site of home‐making processes, and one associated with a substantial proportion of domestic water consumption. The notion of cultural capital is adopted as a framework for examining these consumption patterns. Water consumption is analysed as a practice through which cultural capital can be accumulated. It is argued that the contrasting notions of social distinction and social conformity in the suburban garden shape the accumulation of cultural capital and influence patterns of water consumption. Understanding these socio‐cultural dimensions of water consumption is important in shaping water‐use management, an issue discussed throughout the paper.