基于回归分析法的地下水位预测研究

彭楼灌区位于山东省聊城市西南部,为引黄灌溉灌区。2002年彭楼灌区复灌以来,有效缓解当地水资源紧缺的矛盾。为研究彭楼灌区引黄水量对地下水位的影响,采用回归分析法,具体分析地下水位变差与引黄水量、干旱指数的回归关系,建立回归方程。通过实例分析检验,建立的回归方程可作为进行彭楼灌区地下水位预测的一种方法。     

甘肃景电灌区节水灌溉措施研究

景泰川电力提灌工程是一项重大的引黄灌溉工程。通过充分调查研究了灌区的用水现状,从工程类节水措施和管理类节水措施两个方面着手,对灌区用水存在问题提出了相应的节水措施。     

甘肃景电灌区水资源利用现状分析

对甘肃省景泰川引黄灌溉工程水资源利用进行研究.对景泰川电力提灌工程及灌区的现状进行分析,根据对灌区水资源的分析,通过计算灌区内来水及用水情况,对灌区进行水量的平衡分析,明确提出灌区在水资源利用上存在的主要问题.在当前水资源匮乏的现实情况下,要积极采取相应的节水措施,开展灌区的水资源保护工作.     

大洼灌区稻田预测指标及控肥节水灌溉技术探讨

大洼灌区是以稻田为主的灌区,农业用水以水稻为主。为预测水稻耗水量,须分析育苗期、稻田期和生长期耗水量等定额。采用水稻生态肥控节水灌溉技术和节能灌溉技术,使灌区水稻产量和水分利用效率分别提高10%～15%和15%～20%。可以提高水分利用效率和肥料利用率,减少深层渗漏,降低土壤酸化和地下水污染的风险,保护生态环境,促进农业良性循环,实现精准化和产业化经营。对保证粮食安全和农业可持续发展具有重大意义。     

基于多元逐步回归的大型灌区年退水量预测模型研究

对于水资源短缺的西北地区,研究大型引黄灌区退水规律及退水量预测对灌区水资源高效利用和灌区水资源管理具有十分重要的意义。本文利用宁夏青铜峡灌区的实测资料,通过灰色关联分析法研究了宁夏引黄灌区年退水量的影响因素和预测模型,得出影响灌区退水量的主要因素依次为灌溉引水量、地下水位、降水量和蒸发量;建立了灌区退水量的多元逐步回归预测模型,并对青铜峡灌区退水量进行了预测研究,结果表明,该模型具有较高的预测精度,研究成果为灌区水资源高效利用奠定了科学基础。     

浅议位山灌区节水灌溉发展方向

位山灌区是黄河下游最大引黄灌区，近三十年引黄水量不足，水资源浪费严重，供需矛盾日趋突出。针对灌区工程损毁、管理不善、配水不当等问题，提出了节水灌溉发展方向。     

年降水量变化条件下农灌引水与开采对地下水位影响

通过分析滹沱河流域降水量对黄壁庄水库径流量及石津灌区引水量影响,及其对引水量利用效率及地下水开采量影响分析表明,降水量与水库径流量、引水量和弃水量具有一定的正相关性,与引水利用效率成负相关。渠灌区农业地下水开采受降水量影响不明显,多年地下水位在潜水强蒸发带区间波动;井灌区以开采地下水灌溉为主,并受到降水量的明显影响,地下水呈逐年下降趋势。由此不同变化趋势,提出渠灌区适度开采浅层咸水与渠水混合灌溉,扩大渠灌面积,减少井灌区面积,对缓和井灌区地下水位下降有重要意义。     

基于MOD16的银川平原地表蒸散量时空特征及影响因素分析

地表蒸散发是陆地水文循环的重要组成部分,分析蒸散量时空变化特征是深入了解干旱区水文过程的基础。由于银川平原缺乏区域尺度实际蒸散量的长期观测,很难得到长时间序列蒸散量的时空变化特征。基于MOD16A3地表蒸散量数据及研究区内气象站点实测数据,采用Theil Sen Median趋势度分析、MK突变检验及CA-Markov模型等方法,从时间与空间的角度分析2004—2019年银川平原地表蒸散量的变化特征及影响因素,预测2024年地表蒸散量的发展趋势。研究结果表明:2004—2019年银川平原蒸散量年际波动总体是增加趋势,MK突变检验结果显示2010年是蒸散量时序数据的突变点;银川平原实际蒸散量与潜在蒸散量空间分布格局、变化趋势均存在明显的差异性,蒸散量在近16年呈增加趋势,潜在蒸散量呈减少趋势,符合干旱区蒸散发互补相关理论。采用CA-Markov模型对2024年银川平原地表蒸散量未来发展趋势进行预测,模拟结果显示在未来5年银川平原蒸散量仍呈增加趋势;蒸散量的时空变化受气候与人类活动的共同影响,蒸散量与气温、降水、日照时数呈正相关,与相对湿度呈负相关,土地利用结构影响年蒸散量的空间格局,呈现出水田>旱田>林地>草地>荒漠的规律。     

位山灌区节水改造实践初步探讨

作为全国五大灌区之一的位山灌区,不仅为聊城市农业、生态、电力工业和城市环境提供了水源保障,而且还承担了引黄济津、引黄济冀（入卫）跨流域调水任务,其经济效益、生态效益和社会效益显著。针对灌区泥沙堆积严重、水利用率低、灌溉矛盾突出、生态环境恶化及管理体制不合理等问题,实施续建配套与节水改造项目,在水量调度、泥沙分配、渠道衬砌和建设＂数字灌区＂等方面进行研究与探讨,并取得了巨大的经济效益、社会效益及生态效益。     

引水减少对河套永联试验区田间水均衡影响分析

以河套灌区永联试验区的六队六八斗渠控制区域为研究区域,采用荷兰Wageningen农业大学开发的SWAP(Soil Water Atmosphere Plant)模型,模拟分析了引水减少条件下的田间水均衡要素变化规律。结果显示蒸散发量占总耗水量的比例在90%以上,验证了河套灌区的耗水类型是以垂向的蒸散发为主。随着引水量减少,模拟的相对产量也显著降低。可见,当灌区年平均引水量从52亿m3减少到40亿m3时,现有种植结构下的作物产量将会受影响。因此,引水减少后的种植结构和灌溉制度需适度调整。     

Analyses of precipitation,temperature and evapotranspiration in a French Mediterranean region in the context of climate change

This study is focused on the western part of the French Mediterranean area, namely the Pyrénées-Orientales and Aude administrative departments. The water resources (surface and groundwater) in the region are sensitive to climate change. The study addresses the question of whether any trend in the annual and monthly series of temperature, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) already appears at the scale of this region. Two data sources have been used: (a) direct local measurements using the meteorological network; and (b) spatially interpolated data from the French weather service model SAFRAN for the period 1970–2006. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was applied to identify significant trends at the local scale and, because of the natural spatial variability of the Mediterranean climate, regional interpretation was also performed. The trends observed in the 13 catchments of interest are consistent with those observed at a larger scale. An increase in annual mean temperature and annual PET was observed throughout the study area, whereas annual precipitation has not exhibited any trend. The monthly scale has revealed strong seasonal variability in trend. The trend for an increase in monthly PET has been observed mainly in the spring, and has not been seen in the coastal areas. A trend for an increase in monthly temperature has been observed in June and in the spring throughout the entire area. Monthly rainfall has been found to decrease in June and increase in November throughout the area. The significant trends observed in rainfall and temperature seem to be consistent between the different data sources.     

典型岩溶区潜在蒸散发变化及其影响因素

蒸散发过程是联系大气过程和陆面水文过程的关键环节,对区域/流域水循环过程和水量平衡具有重要影响。岩溶区,地表生态环境脆弱,对气候变化响应敏感,蒸散发可能是联系大气、水、热交换和碳循环的关键生态水文过程。准确地估算蒸散发对于深入研究岩溶水循环响应气候变化、碳循环、生态修复等具有重要作用。本文选择典型岩溶区桂林市为研究对象,基于1951~2015年桂林市气象站逐日气象数据,采用Penman- Monterith方法计算了潜在蒸散发量,利用Mann- Kendall非参数检验法和相关性分析研究桂林市潜在蒸散发的变化趋势及其影响因素。研究结果表明,桂林市潜在蒸散发具有明显的年、年际和季节尺度变化特征。1951~2015年桂林市潜在蒸散发呈显著的减小趋势,变化速率为-8. 02 mm/10a;夏季、秋季和冬季潜在蒸散发呈下降趋势,而春季呈微弱的上升趋势;夏季潜在蒸散发的显著减小是影响年蒸散发下降的主要原因;桂林市潜在蒸散发在1967和2003年左右发生突变;通过Mann- Kendall趋势检验和相关性分析得出,桂林市平均气温、最高、最低气温呈显著的上升趋势,而风速、相对湿度、日照时数呈显著的下降趋势;日照时数是影响桂林市潜在蒸散发变化的主要因素,其次是风速。     

气候变化下长江中下游水稻灌溉需水量时空变化特征

选择长江中下游单季中稻为研究对象,结合45个气象站1961~2010年逐日气象资料,基于统计降尺度模型(SDSM),生成HadCM3气候模式A2和B2两种情景下各站点参考作物腾发量和降水数据。基于联合国粮食及农业组织(FAO)推荐的作物系数法,并考虑有效性降雨和不同地区深层渗漏量,分析历史和未来的水稻灌溉需水时空变化特征。结果表明:过去50年,除了太湖流域以外的长江中下游大部分区域的参考作物腾发量和水稻需水量都呈显著下降趋势,而显著下降的水稻灌溉需水量主要位于鄱阳湖流域;未来两种情景下,参考作物腾发量、水稻需水量和水稻灌溉需水量均值都呈下降趋势,但水稻灌溉需水量降幅最小;水稻需水量和水稻灌溉需水量在长江中下游地区的变化趋势具有明显的空间异质性,水稻需水量大幅减少的区域由太湖流域向汉江和洞庭湖流域扩展。未来水稻灌溉需水量减少的区域主要分布在太湖流域、汉江流域东部和洞庭湖流域北部,并随时间推移呈扩大趋势。     

疏勒河灌区2000-2014年植被生态适宜需水动态研究

以疏勒河灌区为研究对象,利用2000-2014年MOD13Q1遥感数据,采用植被生长旺季的增强型植被指数(EVI)建立植被生态分区标准,获得人工种植植被区、中覆盖率天然植被区、低覆盖率天然植被区、荒漠稀疏植被区和荒漠区的面积数据,采用阿维里扬诺夫潜水蒸发模型估算了各类生态分区的植被生态需水量,分析了各类植被生态适宜需水量的时空变化规律.结果表明,研究区总植被生态需水量年均增幅达2.64%,其中,人工种植地植被生态需水量年均增幅达3.65%,呈现稳定增长的趋势;天然植被生态需水量年均减少幅度为1.58%,呈现逐步减少的趋势.最后,根据疏勒河干流昌马堡水文站同时期的年均径流量数据,分析了影响植被生态适宜需水动态变化的因素,揭示了植被生态适宜需水量对径流量变化和灌区工程建设的响应关系,为灌区水资源配置提供了科学依据.     

Groundwater recharge in irrigated semi-arid areas: quantitative hydrological modelling and sensitivity analysis

For semi-arid regions, methods of assessing aquifer recharge usually consider the potential evapotranspiration. Actual evapotranspiration rates can be below potential rates for long periods of time, even in irrigated systems. Accurate estimations of aquifer recharge in semi-arid areas under irrigated agriculture are essential for sustainable water-resources management. A method to estimate aquifer recharge from irrigated farmland has been tested. The water-balance-modelling approach was based on VisualBALAN v. 2.0, a computer code that simulates water balance in the soil, vadose zone and aquifer. The study was carried out in the Campo de Cartagena (SE Spain) in the period 1999–2008 for three different groups of crops: annual row crops (lettuce and melon), perennial vegetables (artichoke) and fruit trees (citrus). Computed mean-annual-recharge values (from irrigation+precipitation) during the study period were 397 mm for annual row crops, 201 mm for perennial vegetables and 194 mm for fruit trees: 31.4, 20.7 and 20.5% of the total applied water, respectively. The effects of rainfall events on the final recharge were clearly observed, due to the continuously high water content in soil which facilitated the infiltration process. A sensitivity analysis to assess the reliability and uncertainty of recharge estimations was carried out.     

精量灌溉决策定量指标研究现状与进展

按照土壤 植物 大气连续体(SPAC)理论,灌溉决策的指标可分为三类:土壤水分、作物水分生理状况和气象因素。对这三方面的研究现状与进展作了详细的阐述。在土壤水分监测技术方面,时域反射仪(TDR)技术、微波技术、近红外辐射等的应用,使监测更加准确和便利;用于灌溉决策的作物水分生理信息监测包括:细胞液浓度、叶/水势、茎果微变化、生理电阻电容、声发射等,从目前国际上研究情况来看,叶冠层温度和茎流变化是指示作物水分状况较好的指标;在估算大气蒸发力方面,以参考作物蒸散量为指标,估计作物参考蒸散量的方法以联合国粮农组织(FAO)最新推荐的Penman-Monteith方法较为精细。并对目前灌溉决策指标的综合运用情况进行了总结。讨论了作为精准农业重要组成部分的"精量控制灌溉"今后的发展方向,建议以通过对作物、土壤、气象复合系统的分析和判断,指导灌溉的适时和适量。     

Groundwater and geothermal resources of Eritrea with the emphasis on their chemical quality

Available chemical analyses have been evaluated and a water quality map prepared using electrical conductivity values. The country has been divided into three water quality regions. The quality of each region is variously a combination of climate, geology, waste disposal and irrigation practices and salt water intrusion. Region 1 has the best water quality, though in the Asmara area the groundwater is polluted by nitrate (50–150 mg l⁻¹ NO₃). The impact on the natural environment due to the salinity hazard created by high evapotranspiration and irrigation practices becomes more pronounced across Region 2 and reaches a peak in the Red Sea catchments (Region 3), where it is supplemented by saline intrusion and mineralized upflows. In this region, soil fertility has been greatly affected and the development of groundwater has been constrained. Fluoride concentrations of 7–17 mg l⁻¹ are common in Regions 2 and 3 and some dental fluorosis has been noted.Upflows of thermal water (34–100°C) exist in the Red Sea coastal zone and provide a potential energy resource. Both these and the factors affecting water resource quality in general require careful investigation and conservation measures.     

Irrigated area determination: a case study in the Province of San Juan,Argentina

Much of the central-western region of Argentina, where San Juan Province is located, experiences arid to semi-arid climatic conditions with low average annual rainfall accompanied by substantial evapotranspiration. Consequently, a viable crop industry depends to a large extent upon irrigation from major river systems. Increasing demand for water in the lower basin of the San Juan River is emphasizing the need for more accurate estimates of water used for irrigation. Since the water demand for a particular crop is very closely related to crop area, monitoring the area of crop under irrigation is considered a proxy for the amount of water used. Landsat 5 imagery for the growing season, field data and aerial photographs were used to evaluate crop area.     

Climate change impacts on water demand and availability using CMIP5 models in the Jaguaribe basin,semi-arid Brazil

The objective of this study was to analyze climate change impacts on irrigation water demand and availability in the Jaguaribe River basin, Brazil. For northeastern Brazil, five global circulation models were selected using a rainfall seasonal evaluation screening technique from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change named Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The climate variables were generated for the base period of 1971–2000, as were projections for the 2025–2055 future time slice. Removal of maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall output bias was used to estimate reference evapotranspiration, irrigation water needs, and river flow using the rainfall—river flow hydrological model Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure for the baseline and future climate (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios). In addition, by applying improved irrigation efficiency, a scenario was evaluated in comparison with field observed performance. The water-deficit index was used as a water availability performance indicator. Future climate projections by all five models resulted in increases in future reference evapotranspiration (2.3–6.3%) and irrigation water needs (2.8–16.7%) for all scenarios. Regarding rainfall projections, both positive (4.8–12.5%) and negative (??2.3 to ??15.2%) signals were observed. Most models and scenarios project that annual river flow will decrease. Lower future water availability was detected by the less positive water-deficit index. Improved irrigation efficiency is a key measure for the adaptation to higher future levels of water demand, as climate change impacts could be compensated by gains in irrigation efficiency (water demand changes varying from ??1.7 to ??35.2%).