与时俱进扎实工作促进山西气象事业新发展--新年寄语

在新世纪第一年悄然而去的时候，回首２００１年，人们看到的是希望与磨难并存、生机与悲愤同在的世界。而在世界的东方———中国，却是喜事频传，一派充满生机、安乐祥和、蓬勃发展的景象。北京申奥成功；APEC会议在上海成功举行；中国成为世贸组织的正式成员；在世界经济一片萎靡不振的形势下，中国经济增长强劲，一枝独秀……今天的中国让世界刮目相看，世界因中国而精彩。回顾过去的一年，山西气象工作在新世纪开局之年朝气蓬勃、灿烂夺目、成绩卓著。作为“十五”期间我省重点建设项目之一的“山西省扩展开发利用空中水资源工程计划…     

贵州典型凝冻年及无凝冻年的环流特征分析

以贵州 4 7个代表站的凝冻指数 ,按一定标准确定典型凝冻的 57个侯 ,对贵州凝冻天气过程的侯平均环流进行分型 ,并以贵州平均凝冻指数的最大值和最小值为主要依据 ,确定了贵州典型凝冻年 1983年和典型无凝冻年 1986年 ,诊断分析了典型重凝冻年和无凝冻年的 1月 50 0hPa高度场及距平场分布特征 ,结果表明 :典型重凝冻年和无凝冻年差异最显著的地区在西欧沿岸到格陵兰岛 ,为强的负差值区 ,其南部为强的正差值区 ,强度达 +2 0位势什米 ;在亚洲地区为北正南负的差值分布。在西欧沿岸到格陵兰岛 ,1984年 1月为负距平区 ,在东亚呈“北高南低”的环流形势。 1987年 1月为正距平区 ,西欧脊和欧洲槽异常发展 ,冷空气主要侵入欧洲地区 ,东亚呈“北低南高”的环流形势 ,盛行纬向环流 ,东亚沿岸 50°N以南正距平占优势 ,东亚大槽平坦 ,是造成我省 1987年 1月无凝冻的一个主要环流形势     

2006年全球气候异常，多项纪录被打破

 以世界气象组织发布的2006年全球变化状况的报告为基础，结合全球相关的资料报道，总结了2006年全球的气候变化特征：2006年为近百年来第5个最暖年，全球出现了大范围的气候异常，包括欧洲最暖的秋天、澳大利亚的严重干旱、非洲大角地区的极端干旱和严重洪涝、菲律宾群岛的暴雨，以及北极海冰面积的进一步减少等。     

Upward flushing of sea water through first year ice

Abstract

Observations in both the ice and slush layers suggest that sea water intrudes into the snow layer following a snow storm. Ice temperature values recorded at 1 cm below the snow‐ice interface show that the upward flux of sea water is of short duration. This is followed by a period of intense brine drainage characterized by the migration of a salty brine layer, with salinities up to 42 psu. These results suggest that a snow storm induces a complete (upward) flushing of the brine channel network and major modifications of snow and ice characteristics.

Melt rates and downward brine fluxes were calculated using salinity measured in a 40 cm deep box placed on the ice‐water interface, which isolated a 50 × 50 cm area of sea ice from ocean mixing processes. In this semi‐isolated environment, observed salinity changes allowed us to determine melt water fluxes and brine drainage or flushing even though ice thickness measurements did not show any significant change. Melt rates up to 21 cm/month and equivalent growth rates up to 32 cm/month were measured.     

2004年贵州省两次典型冰雹灾害个例分析

分析2004年3～8月全省降雹日的统计资料以及影响较大的4月5日、4月23日的冰雹灾害和人工防雹作业情况，提出了在人工防雹作业中存在的一些问题，以期能更好地提高工作效益，发挥人工影响天气在防灾减灾服务中的重要作用。     

Air-sea fluxes over the global oceans during the FGGE year

Summary Vertical fluxes of momentum, sensible and latent heat have been estimated over the surface of the global oceans. A three-dimensional mesh grid 32 longitude points, 17 latitude points and 365 days from December 1, 1978 to November 30, 1979 is used to obtain seasonal and annual mean values of the surface fluxes. The global climatology shows the seasonal variation, the continental influence, the principal ocean currents and the typical middle latitude (30°–50°) and tropical effects (30°S–30°N). The annual mean of latent heat shows greater flux over the subtropical regions (~ 280 W/m²) than in the polar regions (~ 80 W/m²). On the other hand, the annual mean of sensible heat shows greater flux over the polar regions (~ 100 W/m²) than in the tropics (~ 40 W/m²). Time series analyses of the daily estimates of the surface fluxes show greater energy at high frequencies due to the surface effect; however, the low-frequency spectra show relatively high energy at the 30- to 50-day mode, especially for the middle latitude regions. The 30–50 day filtered data for the surface fluxes, presented in time/latitude cross-sections for the middle latitude regions show a westerly wave propagation with wave numberK = 2 and phase speed of the order of 12 degrees/day from June to August over the southern hemisphere at 55°S.

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Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie beschäftigt sich mit der Einschätzung der vertikalen Impuls-Flüsse und der Flüsse von sensibler und latenter Wärme über der gesamten Meeresoberfläche. Ein dreidimensionales Gitter mit 32 × 17 Punkten und Daten von 365 Tagen (von 1. 12. 1978 bis 30. 11. 1979) wird benutzt, um sowohl Jahreszeiten als auch Jahresmittelwerte der Oberflächenflüsse zu erhalten. Die globale Klimatologie zeigt die jahreszeitlichen Schwankungen, den kontinentalen Einfluß, die wichtigsten Meeresströmungen und die typischen Effekte der mittleren Breiten (30°–50°) und der Tropen (30°S–30°N). Das Jahresmittel latenter Wärme weist größere Flüsse über subtropischen Regionen (ca. 280 W/m²) als über polaren Regionen (ca. 80 W/m²) auf, während andererseits das Jahresmittel sensibler Wärme über Polarregionen (ca. 100 W/m²) größere Flüsse als über den Tropen (ca. 40 W/m²) aufweist. Zeitreihen-Analysen der täglichen Schätzwerte von Oberflächenflüssen deuten auf mehr Energie bei hohen Frequenzen aufgrund des Oberflächeneffekts hin; in jedem Fall zeigen die Niederfrequenz-Spektren relativ hohe Energie in den 30 – 50-Tage-Perioden, besonders für mittlere Breiten. Die über einen Zeitraum von 30 – 50 Tagen gesammelten Daten der Oberflächenflüsse dargestellt in Zeit-Breiten-Querschnitten für mittlere Breiten zeigen von Juni bis August über der südlichen Hemisphäre bei 55°S eine Ausbreitung der westlichen Wellen mit der WellenzahlK = 2 und einer Phasengeschwindigkeit im Ausmaß von 12° pro Tag.

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With 7 Figures     

Enhanced spectral UV irradiance: a 1 year preliminary study

The ultraviolet (UV) spectra on cloudy days were compared to those on cloud free days to determine which part of the UV spectrum has the greatest enhancement due to the cloud compared to both corresponding measured clear sky spectra as well as other enhanced spectra. In this preliminary study, cloud enhanced UV spectra selected for maximum UVA enhancement compared to a clear sky UV spectrum at similar solar zenith angle (SZA) and ozone values, showed that the ratio of the two sets of spectral irradiances was approximately wavelength independent (approximately 1.1) above the cut-off wavelength of approximately 306 nm. Similarly, above 306 nm the average ratio of the spectral irradiances of a maximum UVB enhanced UV spectrum compared to a clear sky spectrum was 1.2 with maximum values generally above this average between 316 and 344 nm and generally below 1.2 above the wavelength of 344 nm. The UVA and UVB enhanced spectra were separated into five SZA ranges and the irradiance at each wavelength averaged for each range and compared to clear sky spectra in each of the ranges. Above approximately 306 nm, the ratios are wavelength independent for all SZA. However, with the exception of the SZA range centred on 20°, there is an increasing dependency with shorter wavelengths below the 306 nm. Also there appears to be two distinct groupings of the average irradiance ratios, corresponding to the SZA range centred on 20°, 37° and 49° (ratio of 1.2) and 32° and 42° (ratio 1.0), the latter cases suggesting that on average there is no enhancement for these SZA, except for wavelengths less than 306 nm.     

Temperature and precipitation of Alaska: 50 year trend analysis

Summary  Temperature and precipitation records from 1949 to 1998 were examined for 25 stations throughout the State of Alaska. Mean, maxima, and minima temperatures, diurnal temperature range, and total precipitation were analyzed for linear trends using least squares regressions. Annual and seasonal mean temperature increases were found throughout the entire state, and the majority were found to be statistically significant at the 95% level or better. The highest increases were found in winter in the Interior region (2.2 °C) for the 50 year period of record. Decreases in annual and seasonal mean diurnal temperature range were also found, of which only about half were statistically significant. A state-wide decrease in annual mean diurnal temperature range was found to be 0.3 °C, with substantially higher decreases in the South/Southeastern region in winter. Increases were found in total precipitation for 3 of the 4 seasons throughout most of Alaska, while summer precipitation showed decreases at many stations. Few of the precipitation trends were found to be statistically significant, due to high interannual variability. Barrow, our only station in the Arctic region, shows statistically significant decreases in annual and winter total precipitation. These findings are largely in agreement with existing literature, although they do contradict some of the precipitation trends predicted by the CO₂-doubling GCM’s. Received August 30, 1999/Revised March 21, 2000     

ENSO年与我区夏季降水的关系

通过分析EI-nino和La-nina现象季委不同位相对我区夏季降水的关系，得出在EI－nino冬季增强型和冬季减弱型中，我区夏季降雨量以偏多为主：在La-nina冬季增强型中我区夏季降雨量和EI－nino冬季不同位相相同，而La-nina冬季减弱型中，我区夏季以少雨干旱为主。这主要是ENSO冬季不同位相，对后期的西太平洋副高以及东亚季风等的影响不同。     

CO2 feedbacks and the 100 K year cycle in climate

Summary In an earlier paper (Lindzen, 1986), it was shown that allowing CO₂ to vary with snow/sea ice position could lead to a greatly enhanced response in glaciation to 100 K year orbital forcing—even when 20 K year forcing was much stronger. In that model, snow/sea ice position (SSIP) and glaciation were different: the former was the forcing for the latter. However, SSIP and glaciation were not decorrelated. Observations (Berner et al., 1979; Lorius et al., 1985; Neftel et al., 1982) suggest that CO₂ may be independently related to both SSIP and glaciation. In the present paper, we allow (in a highly simplified manner) such independent dependence, and show how it alters the earlier results. Briefly, the dependence of CO₂ on glaciation can contribute to and even cause a highly enhanced response to the 100 K year component of the forcing. However, the CO₂ dependence on SSIP is, on the whole, more effective in this regard. Thus, we expect time series of CO₂ to show variation on the faster time scales than does glaciation.With 5 Figures     

The cold and wet year 1695 — a contemporary German account

After describing briefly some of the outstanding features of the uncommonly cold and wet year 1695, one of the coldest years of the Little Ice Age, an annotated translation is presented of a contemporary review of the unusual weather events of the year in Europe. The original was published in 1702 in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, in vol. XIV of the seriesTheatrum Europaeum. The annotation relates to the historical events of the year that were substantially affected by the weather, events to which rather abstruse references are made in the aforementioned contemporary account. In addition to the fact that the contemporary review describes the uncommon weather conditions of 1695, it appears to be the first extended weather review in history.     

Public microblogging on climate change: One year of Twitter worldwide

Public perceptions of climate change are traditionally measured through surveys. The exploding popularity of social networks, however, presents a new opportunity to research the spatiotemporal pattern of public discourse in relation to natural and/or socio-economic events. Among the social networks, Twitter is one of the largest microblogging services. The architecture of Twitter makes the question “what's happening?” the cornerstone of information exchange. This inspired the notion of using Twitter users as distributed sensors, which has been successfully employed in both the natural and social sciences. In 2012 and 2013, we collected 1.8 million tweets on “climate change” and “global warming” in five major languages (English, German, Russian, Portuguese, and Spanish). We discuss the geography of tweeting, weekly and daily patterns, major news events that affected tweeting on climate change, changes in the central topics of discussion over time, the most authoritative traditional media, blogging, and the most authoritative organizational sources of information on climate change referenced by Twitter users in different countries. We anticipate that social network mining will become a major source of data in the public discourse on climate change.     

A thousand year speleothem proxy record of North Atlantic climate from Scotland

Luminescent organic matter in stalagmites may form annual bands, allowing growth rate to be precisely determined. Stalagmite growth rate is controlled by precipitation, so annual bands can be used to derive long precipitation records. A continuously banded stalagmite from a cave in NW Scotland was used to provide a 1100?year high-resolution record of precipitation. The location of the cave means that precipitation is closely linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation, for which a record is also derived. This suggests that changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation state was an important control on European climate over the past millennium.     

Analysis of a 200 year snow accumulation series from the South Pole

Summary The reliability of mean and annual net accumulation values determined at the South Pole from stratigraphic studies is demonstrated by a comparison with measurements of snow accumulation made at stake networks from 1958 to 1963. The annual values in the series 1760–1957 are used to compute the temporal variability of accumulation. The procedure to estimate the errors in the identification of annual layers is discussed, and the significance of these errors in the analysis of the series is examined. The variability of the 198 annual accumulation values is slightly less than that of precipitation series obtained at two stations, one at high latitude and one at high elevation. A variance analysis of the South Pole series indicates that there is, with a high degree of probability, an increase in the rate of snow accumulation with time not due to chance, from approximately 5.4 g·cm^–2·yr^–1 in the first 66 years (1760–1825) to approximately 7.5 g·cm^–2·yr^–1 in the last 66 years of the series. The area of the region for which there is a positive secular change in the rate of accumulation during the last 200 years remains unknown. The serial correlation computed for time lags from one to twelve years shows that significant periodicities do not exist in this series. The identification of annual layers in five isolated sets comprising from 4 to 8 layers each and included in the period 1536±42–1760±13 suggests that the mean accumulation for the period circa 1550–1750 is approximately the same as that determined in the 1760–1957 series.

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Zusammenfassung Das Hauptziel der Arbeit ist die Untersuchung einer 198jährigen Reihe von Schnee-Akkumulationswerten am Südpol. Zunächst wird durch einen Vergleich mit direkten Messungen für die Jahre 1958 bis 1963 gezeigt, daß die stratigraphisch bestimmten Jahresschichten als repräsentativ für den Netto-Jahres-Schneeniederschlag angesehen werden können. Die verschiedenen Fehlerquellen werden diskutiert und ihr Einfluß auf die nachfolgende Analyse des säkularen Ganges wird geprüft. Die Streuung der jährlichen Akkumulationswerte erweist sich als etwas geringer als die langjähriger Niederschlagsreihen von Stationen in hohen Breiten bzw. großer Höhenlage. Mittels einer Varianzanalyse (Streuungszerlegung) wird sodann gezeigt, daß die beobachteteZunahme der Akkumulationswerte, von etwa 5.4 Gramm/cm² pro Jahr im Mittel der ersten 66 Jahre (1760 bis 1825) auf etwa 7.5 Gramm/cm² pro Jahr im Mittel der letzten 66 Jahre, mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeitnicht durch Zufall allein bedingt sein kann. Eine Autokorrelationsrechnung mit 1 bis 12 Jahren Zeitverzug ergibt, daß die Beobachtungsreihe keine signifikanten Perioden dieser Größenordnung enthält. Schließlich werden noch stratigraphische Messungen in größerer Tiefe des Südpol-Schachts (Jahre vor 1760), in denen die Jahresschichten weniger klar nachweisbar sind, besprochen.

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Résumé Le but principal du présent travail est l'étude d'une série de 198 ans des valeurs de l'accumulation de la neige au pôle sud. On démontre tout d'abord que les couches annuelles déterminées stratigraphiquement peuvent être considérées comme représentatives des précipitations neigeuses nettes de l'année. Pour cela, on se sert par comparaison de mesures directes faites de 1958 à 1963. On discute diverses sources d'erreurs et examine leur influence sur l'analyse subséquente de l'évolution séculaire. La dispersion des accumulations annuelles est légèrement plus faible que celle des longues séries de mesure des précipitations effectuées soit à des latitudes élevées soit à grande altitude. Au moyen d'une analyse des variances, on démontre quel'augmentation des valeurs de l'accumulation de 5,4 g/cm² environ (en moyenne annuelle) des 66 premières années (1760 à 1825) à 7,5 g/cm² par année en moyenne des 66 dernières années n'est très probablementpas due au hasard. Un calcul de corrélations (autocorrélation) fait avec un décalage de 1 à 12 ans montre que la série d'observations ne présente pas de périodes significatives de cet ordre de grandeur. On discute enfin les mesures stratigraphiques effectuées à plus grandes profondeurs au moyen du puits creusé au pôle sud (années antérieures à 1760), mesures pour lesquelles les couches annuelles sont moins bien prononcées.

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With 8 Figures

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Geophysical and Polar Research Center Contribution No. 154.     

广汉机场冬半年辐射雾的预报

利用广汉机场地面观测气象要素与08时探空资料,结合天气图,求取成雾露点温度和逆温层顶温,提出了预报冬半年(11月至次年2月)辐射雾生消的经验公式,经检验具有较高的准确率,在实际运用中取得了很好的效果.     

北极涛动指数及其年代际变化研究

运用NCEP／NCAR再分析月资料，根据北极涛动经向振荡的特征构建一个新的AO指数，使其能较好地表现AO的季节变化，并用回归分析和相关分析方法对指数进行检验。同时，用滑动平均方法对北极涛动的年代际变化进行研究，发现北极涛动在70年代中期存在位相突变，由负位相转为正位相，并解释了这种位相突变的气候意义。     

Long-term projection of main parameters of regional climate till the year 3000

The methods are considered to solve the problem of secure isolation of radioactive waste containing long-lived products of nuclear fuel processing with a half-life of tens of thousands years (plutonium etc.). The methodology of long-term projection of average annual surface air temperature and total precipitation is proposed. Taking into account the possible scenarios of the development of the global socioeconomic system, variations due to the anthropogenic impact in average annual temperature at the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes for the period till 2300 are estimated. Based on paleoclimatic data, projections of natural trends in global average annual temperature and total precipitation till the year 3000 are developed. Taking into account the anthropogenic component, the projective ranges of these climatic parameters in the Vyatka River basin in 2100-3000 are evaluated.