美丽中国建设——人地和谐共生理论与评估指标体系及应用

The Beautiful China Initiative(BCI)is a plan for the sustainable development of the Chinese nation as well as for China to fulfill the United Nations’2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.The Chinese government’s“five-in-one”approach provides strategic arrangements for developing the BCI,and President Xi Jinping proposed a timetable and“road map”for the BCI at the National Conference on Ecological and Environmental Protection.Nevertheless,the theoretical basis,evaluation index system,evaluation criteria and effectiveness of the BCI are currently unclear.This paper begins by exploring the basic content of the BCI from narrow and broad perspectives.It regards the theory of human-nature harmonious coexistence and the five-in-one beauty theory as the core theoretical bases of the BCI and constructs a five-element BCI evaluation index system(ecological environment,green development,social harmony,system perfection and cultural heritage)and utilizes the assessment method of the United Nations’Human Development Index to assess scientifically the effectiveness of the BCI in 341 prefecture-level cities.The results show the average BCI index(the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beauty Index)score to be 0.28,which is quite low,while the average scores for the individual element indexes of the ecological environment index,green development index,social harmony index,system perfection index and cultural heritage index are 0.6,0.22,0.29,0.22 and 0.07,respectively.All of these are relatively low values,with relatively large discrepancies in regional development,indicating that progress in the BCI is generally slow and unbalanced.To realize the BCI’s timetable and roadmap to a high quality and high standard,it is suggested that a common system for evaluating the progress of the BCI is developed and promulgated so that dynamic monitoring and phased evaluations can take place;BCI technical assessment standards are compiled and published;BCI comprehensive zoning is undertaken;pilot projects adapted to local conditions are launched in BCI sample areas;and BCI results are incorporated into performance indicators at all levels of government.     

基于垂直带谱的南北过渡带1:5万植被类型图遥感制图研究——以太白山为例

The compilation of 1:250,000 vegetation type map in the North-South transitional zone and 1:50,000 vegetation type maps in typical mountainous areas is one of the main tasks of Integrated Scientific Investigation of the North-South Transitional Zone of China.In the past,vegetation type maps were compiled by a large number of ground field surveys.Although the field survey method is accurate,it is not only time-consuming,but also only covers a small area due to the limitations of physical environment conditions.Remote sensing data can make up for the limitation of field survey because of its full coverage.However,there are still some difficulties and bottlenecks in the extraction of remote sensing information of vegetation types,especially in the automatic extraction.As an example of the compilation of 1:50,000 vegetation type map,this paper explores and studies the remote sensing extraction and mapping methods of vegetation type with medium and large scales based on mountain altitudinal belts of Taibai Mountain,using multi-temporal high resolution remote sensing data,ground survey data,previous vegetation type map and forest survey data.The results show that:1)mountain altitudinal belts can effectively support remote sensing classification and mapping of 1:50,000 vegetation type map in mountain areas.Terrain constraint factors with mountain altitudinal belt information can be generated by mountain altitudinal belts and 1:10,000 Digital Surface Model(DSM)data of Taibai Mountain.Combining the terrain constraint factors with multi-temporal and high-resolution remote sensing data,ground survey data and previous small-scale vegetation type map data,the vegetation types at all levels can be extracted effectively.2)The basic remote sensing interpretation and mapping process for typical mountains is interpretation of vegetation type-groups→interpretation of vegetation formation groups,formations and subformations→interpretation and classification of vegetation types&subtypes,which is a combination method of top-down method and bottom-up method,not the top-down or the bottom-up classification according to the level of mapping units.The results of this study provide a demonstration and scientific basis for the compilation of large and medium scale vegetation type maps.     

Rural resident household food consumption patterns in the Ganzhou district of Zhangye city: an analysis based on ELES Model

Demand for food plays an important role in the adjustment of prices for agricultural products and for adjusting agricultural structure.By using the extended linear expenditure system(ELES),we analyzed the food consumption structure of rural residents in the Ganzhou district of Zhangye city,and determined the basic food-consumption demand,the marginal propensity of consumption,the income elasticities of demand,and the own-price and cross-price elasticities of local rural residents,all of which illustrate the influencing factors on food consumption of rural residents and for forecasting the food-consumption structure.Those analyses show the following:the rural residents’ expenditure on household basic food consumption reaches about 7,050.35 Yuan;the marginal propensities of consumption of fruits and vegetables are relatively high(0.062 and 0.106,respectively),followed by meat(0.044);the demands for various foods are increasing as income increases,with the largest income elasticity of demand corresponding to fruits(1.354) and the lowest to cereal(0.310);fruits and vegetables have relatively high own-price elasticities(respectively-0.879 and-0.442),with the cereal having the lowest one(-0.184).An increase in cereal prices would greatly affect demand for other products;with the rising size of rural households,the consumption for meat is decreasing whereas it is increasing for cereal.The improvement of household education levels will lead to the increase of fruit consumption(E = 0.297),which indicates that people will pay more attention to diet and nutrition structure with the improvement of education.Further,although the amount of cereal expenditure is continually growing,the share will be declining with the increase of household income in 2006-2012.For all these reasons,therefore,the government should encourage the cultivation of economic crops and guide the development of stockbreeding to ensure the stability of cereal output.In order to attain the balance between supply and demand,it is important to rationally a     

珠江三角洲地区城镇化与生态韧性的耦合协调研究

Urban resilience is an emerging research topic of urban studies, and its essence is described by the ability of cities to resist, recover, and adapt to uncertain disturbances. This paper constructs a "Size-Density-Morphology" urban ecological resilience evaluation system, uses a coupling coordination degree model to measure the degree of coupling coordination between urbanization and ecological resilience in the Pearl River Delta from 2000 to 2015, and conducts an in-depth discussion on its spatiotemporal characteristics. The results show the following.(1) From 2000 to 2015, the urbanization level of cities in the study area generally increased while the level of ecological resilience declined. The coupling coordination degree between the two systems decreased from basic coordination to basic imbalance.(2) In terms of spatial distribution, the coupling coordination degree between urbanization and ecological resilience of cities presented a circular pattern that centered on the cities at the estuary of the Pearl River and increased toward the periphery.(3) Ecological resilience sub-systems played variable roles in the coupling coordination between urbanization and ecological resilience. Specifically, size resilience mainly played a reverse blocking role;the influence of morphology resilience was generally positive and continued to increase over time;the effect of density resilience was positive and continued to decline and further became negative after falling below zero. The main pathways for achieving coordinated and sustainable development of future urbanization and ecological resilience in the Pearl River Delta include: leading the coordinated development of regions with new urbanization, improving ecological resilience by strictly observing the three areas and three lines, adapting to ecological carrying capacity, and rationally arranging urban green spaces.     

Spatiotemporal evolution of urban carbon emission performance in China and prediction of future trends

Climate change resulting from CO_2 emissions has become an important global environmental issue in recent years.Improving carbon emission performance is one way to reduce carbon emissions.Although carbon emission performance has been discussed at the national and industrial levels,city-level studies are lacking due to the limited availability of statistics on energy consumption.In this study,based on city-level remote sensing data on carbon emissions in China from 1992–2013,we used the slacks-based measure of super-efficiency to evaluate urban carbon emission performance.The traditional Markov probability transfer matrix and spatial Markov probability transfer matrix were constructed to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of urban carbon emission performance in China for the first time and predict long-term trends in carbon emission performance.The results show that urban carbon emission performance in China steadily increased during the study period with some fluctuations.However,the overall level of carbon emission performance remains low,indicating great potential for improvements in energy conservation and emission reduction.The spatial pattern of urban carbon emission performance in China can be described as"high in the south and low in the north,"and significant differences in carbon emission performance were found between cities.The spatial Markov probabilistic transfer matrix results indicate that the transfer of carbon emission performance in Chinese cities is stable,resulting in a"club convergence"phenomenon.Furthermore,neighborhood backgrounds play an important role in the transfer between carbon emission performance types.Based on the prediction of long-term trends in carbon emission performance,carbon emission performance is expected to improve gradually over time.Therefore,China should continue to strengthen research and development aimed at improving urban carbon emission performance and achieving the national energy conservation and emission reduction goals.Meanwhile,neighboring cities with different neighborhood backgrounds should pursue cooperative economic strategies that balance economic growth,energy conservation,and emission reductions to realize low-carbon construction and sustainable development.     

长三角地区产业转型的大气污染效应——基于空间溢出视角

The Yangtze River Delta(YRD) is a region in China with a serious contradiction between economic growth and environmental pollution. Exploring the spatiotemporal effects and influencing factors of air pollution in the region is highly important for formulating policies to promote the high-quality development of urban industries. This study uses the spatial Durbin model(SDM) to analyze the local direct and spatial spillover effects of industrial transformation on air pollution and quantifies the contribution of each factor. From 2008 to 2018, there was a significant spatial agglomeration of industrial sulfur dioxide emissions(ISDE) in the YRD, and every 1% increase in ISDE led to a synchronous increase of 0.603% in the ISDE in adjacent cities. The industrial scale index(ISCI) and industrial structure index(ISTI), as the core factors of industrial transformation, significantly affect the emissions of sulfur dioxide in the YRD, and the elastic coefficients are 0.677 and-0.368, respectively. The order of the direct effect of the explanatory variables on local ISDE is ISCI>ISTI>foreign direct investment(FDI)>enterprise technological innovation(ETI)>environmental regulation(ER)> per capita GDP(PGDP). Similarly, the order of the spatial spillover effect of all variables on ISDE in adjacent cities is ISCI>PGDP>FDI>ETI>ISTI>ER, and the coefficients of the ISCI and ISTI are 1.531 and 0.113, respectively. This study contributes to the existing research that verifies the environmental Kuznets curve in the YRD, denies the pollution heaven hypothesis, indicates the Porter hypothesis, and provides empirical evidence for the formation mechanism of regional environmental pollution from a spatial spillover perspective.     

1958-2017年长江流域气候变化的时空特征与热点区域

The Yangtze River Watershed in China is a climate change hotspot featuring strong spatial and temporal variability;hence, it poses a certain threat to social development. Identifying the characteristics of and regions vulnerable to climate change is significantly important for formulating adaptive countermeasures. However, with regard to the Yangtze River Watershed, there is currently a lack of research on these aspects from the perspective of natural and anthropogenic factors. To address this issue, in this study, based on the temperature and precipitation records from 717 meteorological stations, the RClim Dex and random forest models were used to assess the spatiotemporal characteristics of climate change and identify mainly the natural and anthropogenic factors influencing climate change hotspots in the Yangtze River Watershed for the period 1958-2017. The results indicated a significant increasing trend in temperature, a trend of wet and dry polarization in the annual precipitation, and that the number of temperature indices with significant variations was 2.8 times greater than that of precipitation indices. Significant differences were also noted in the responses of the climate change characteristics of the sub-basins to anthropogenic and natural factors;the delta plain of the Yangtze River estuary exhibited the most significant climate changes, where 88.89% of the extreme climate indices varied considerably. Furthermore, the characteristics that were similar among the identified hotpots, including human activities(higher Gross Domestic Product and construction land proportions) and natural factors(high altitudes and large proportions of grassland and water bodies), were positively correlated with the rapid climate warming.     

CHENGTU-A STUDY IN URBAN GEOGRAPHY

1. Location and Historical Development Chengtu, the capital city of western Szechwan, is located on the lower part of the Min and Tu alluvial fan (Fig.1) which has an area of about 6,000 sq.km., and is the most fertile irrigated fields of the western China. The autbor discusses the location and site of the city to compare with other cities on the alluvial fan, and finds that the selection and development of Chengtu as a capital city is due chiefly to the reason that it is situated at the terminus point o...     

自然保护地旅游人地关系演进过程研究——以博格达为例

Protected areas have a double mandate of both "protection" and "use." Naturebased tourism is considered an effective tool in terms of environmental conservation. Understanding the causes and consequences of a spatiotemporal succession of tourism construction is an important channel to explore the changes of tourism-environment interaction in the protected area. To analyze the spatio-temporal variations in tourism construction lands, we adopted Mt. Bogda as an example. We systematically quantified the interaction between these changes and environmental variables and explored the evolution process of tourism-environment interaction of the mountainous protected area in the northwest arid region. Our results revealed the following:(1) In the Bogda protected area, the proportion of tourism construction lands first appeared to be increasing, then decreasing dramatically, and finally growing slowly. The spatial expansion of tourism construction lands followed the "core-periphery" pattern, respectively showing shapely infilling, reasonable agglomeration, barycenter shift, and outlying growth from 1990 to 2018 as the stages of concentrating on the core.(2) The higher land-use intensity of tourism construction drove the changes of landscape fragmentation, diversity, stability, primitive, and nature degree in the protected area. The coupling coordination between tourism and the environment in the Bogda area decreased at first, and then slowly increased. Meanwhile, tourism did not cause irreversible damage to the natural environment, and the coupling coordination degree between tourism and the environment was still in the state of balanced development. It expressed the states of original balanced, development exceeds environment and barely balanced, and superiorly balanced. The historical evolution of tourism-environment interaction in Bogda reflects the pattern of periodic changes in China’s protected areas to a certain extent.     

中国山地范围界定的初步意见

中国山地的范围一直缺乏可操作的、准确的量化方法,从而导致对山地及其内部资源、环境、人口和发展问题认识的不全面.同时,准确界定山地范围是实施数字山地战略的一项基础性工作.在前人研究的基础上,采用两种方案确定中国山地范围.方案一:将满足以下两种情况的国土界定为山地,1)海拔≥3 000 m;2)海拔≥1300～3 000 m,同时相对高差>200 m或坡度>25°.根据此标准计算,中国山地面积为4 000 265 km2,占中国陆地面积的41.67%.方案二:根据UNEP-WCMC的标准,将满足下述情况的国土定义为山地,1)海拔≥2 500 m;2)海拔≥1 500～2 500 m,坡度≥2°;3)海拔≥1 000～1 500 m,坡度≥5°或相对高差≥300 m;4)海拔≥300～1 000 m,相对高差≥300 m.根据此标准计算,中国山地面积为4 426 130 km2占中国陆地面积的46.11%.按两种方法计算所得的分省山地面积中,前5名都是西藏、青海、新疆、四川和云南.将两种方案计算的山地面积按高程划分为六级:①300～1 000 m(含300 m),②1 000～1 500 m(含1 000 m),③1 500～2 500 m(含1 500 m),④2 500～3 500 m(含2 500 m),⑤3 500～4 500 m(含3 500 m),⑥≥4 500 m.根据两种方案的定义,海拔3 500 m以上的山地面积相等;除了方案-在300～1 000 m间山地较方案二多324 508 km2外,其余几个级别山地的面积均为方案二大于方案-的山地面积,其中2 500～3 500 m间多133 432 km2,1 500～2 500 m间多336 186 km2,1 000～1 500 m间多282 273 km2.     

Estimation of groundwater residence time and recession rate in watershed of the Loess Plateau

Groundwater residence time is an important indicator of hydrological cycle and essential for water resources development and utilization. In this paper, groundwater residence time in non-flood season, flood season and water year has been determined from daily streamflow hydrograph of ten hydrological stations in Wudinghe River Basin located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin. Results have showed that: baseflow recession constant in Wudinghe River Basin ranges from 0.72 to 0.94 with a larger recession rate in flood season than that in non-flood season. Spatially, the recession rate of baseflow in loess area is the biggest, but is the smallest in the sandy area. The half-residence time of groundwater varies from 1.8 to 45.5 days while overall residence time of groundwater is between 34 and 342 days in different sub-basins of the Wudinghe River Basin. The annual average overall residence time of groundwater decreases from 117 days in the upper reaches to 73 days in the lower reaches.     

无定河流域地下水更新时间估算

地下水更新时间是衡量水循环速度的重要指标,是水资源开发利用重要的水文参数.文中考虑1972年以后黄河出现的断流问题.探讨其支流地下水更新时间的估算方法.基于无定河流域10个水文站的日径流观测资料,分汛期、非汛期与全年3个不同时期研究流域的基流消退过程以及地下水的更新时间.研究结果表明:1)无定河流域汛期退水常数变化在0.72～0.89之间,非汛期退水常数变化在0.88～0.96之间,汛期基流消退速度快于非汛期;2)对于无定河流域三个不同的土地类型区而言,无论汛期、非汛期还是全系列,黄土区的基流消退最快,河源区次之,风沙区最为缓慢;3)从地下水更新时间看,11个水文站控制的水文区地下水半更新时间变化在1.8～45.5天之间,地下水全更新时间在34～105天之间,表现出明显的时空分异性.按年平均状态,无定河上游、中游和下游地下水的全更新时间分别为101天、88天和84天,表现出从上游到下游减小的趋势.     

1933~2012年无定河径流突变与周期特征诊断

选取黄河中游区实施水土保持最早的一级支流无定河流域,利用滑动-T、曼-肯德尔和山本等3种突变检测方法相互验证,确定了在受人类活动显著影响下,径流的突变年份为1972年,自此径流平均减少3.55×10⁸m³;基于径流突变前降水与径流的显著相关性,并借助地统计克里格空间插值法,重建1933~2012年无定河流域出口控制水位站天然径流变化序列。采用小波分析法诊断天然径流序列的周期变化,结果显示：天然年径流存在6个不同时间尺度的“丰-枯”演变特征,其平均周期分别对应着35.5、22.2、16.8、12.2、9.3和3.3 a。     

Ecological water demand: the case of the slope systems in the East Liaohe River Basin

The ecological water demand (EWD) is the least water amount required to maintain the structure and the function of the special eco-system and the temporal scale of a study on the EWD must be a season's time. Based on GIS and RS with the source information of hydrological data of 46 hydrological gauges covering 52 years and the digital images of Landsat TM in 1986, 1996 and 2000, the landscape patterns, precipitation and runoff in the East Liaohe River Basin were analyzed. With the result of the above analysis, the spatial and temporal changes of the ecological water demand in the slope systems (EWDSS) of the East Liaohe River Basin (ELRB) were derived. Landscapes in the ELRB are dispersed and strongly disturbed by human actions. The hydrological regime in ELRB has distinct spatial variations. The average annual EWDSS in the ELRB is 504.72 mm (324.08-618.89 mm), and the average EWDSS in the growth season (from May to September) is 88.29% of the year's total EWDSS .The ultimate guaranteeing ratio of the EWDSS in ELRB is 90%. The scarce EWDSS area in the whole year and in the growth season are 60.47% and 74.01% of the entire basin respectively. The trend of scarce EWDSS area is most serious according to the quantity and area of scarce EWDSS regions.     

三江源区径流演变及其对气候变化的响应(英文)

Runoff at the three time scales(non-flooding season,flooding season and annual period) was simulated and tested from 1958 to 2005 at Tangnaihai(Yellow River Source Region:YeSR),Zhimenda(Yangtze River Source Region:YaSR) and Changdu(Lancang River Source Region:LcSR) by hydrological modeling,trend detection and comparative analysis.Also,future runoff variations from 2010 to 2039 at the three outlets were analyzed in A1B and B1 scenarios of CSIRO and NCAR climate model and the impact of climate change was tested.The results showed that the annual and non-flooding season runoff decreased significantly in YeSR,which decreased the water discharge to the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River,and intensified the water shortage in the Yellow River Basin,but the other two regions were not statistically significant in the last 48 years.Compared with the runoff in baseline(1990s),the runoff in YeSR would decrease in the following 30 years(2010-2039),especially in the non-flooding season.Thus the water shortage in the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River Basin would be serious continuously.The runoff in YaSR would increase,especially in the flooding season,thus the flood control situation would be severe.The runoff in LcSR would also be greater than the current runoff,and the annual and flooding season runoff would not change significantly,while the runoff variation in the non-flooding season is uncertain.It would increase significantly in the B1 scenario of CSIRO model but decrease significantly in B1 scenario of NCAR model.Furthermore,the most sensitive region to climate change is YaSR,followed by YeSR and LcSR.     

生态需水研究:以东辽河流域坡面系统为例

The ecological water demand (EWD) is the least water amount required to maintain the structure and the function of the special eco-system and the temporal scale of a study on the EWD must be a season‘s time. Based on GIS and RS with the source information of hydrological data of 46 hydrological gauges covering 52 years and the digital images of Landsat TM in 1986, 1996 and 2000, the landscape patterns, precipitation and runoff in the East Liaohe River Basin were analyzed. With the result of the above analysis, the spatial and temporal changes of the ecological water demand in the slope systems (EWDSS) of the East Liaohe River Basin (ELRB) were derived. Landscapes in the ELRB are dispersed and strongly disturbed by human actions. The hydrological regime in ELRB has distinct spatial variations. The average annual EWDSS in the ELRB is 504.72 mm (324.08-618.89 mm), and the average EWDSS in the growth season (from May to September) is 88.29% of the year‘s total EWDSS .The ultimate guaranteeing ratio of the EWDSS in ELRB is 90%. The scarce EWDSS area in the whole year and in the growth season are 60.47% and 74.01% of the entire basin respectively. The trend of scarce EWDSS area is most serious according to the quantity and area of scarce EWDSS regions.     

陕西大理河流域土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应

近年来,土地利用/覆被变化的水文效应研究已成为国际的前沿和重点。在大理河流域,LUCC(包括水土保持措施)对水循环和水量平衡产生了深远影响,该流域LUCC水文效应的研究势在必行。根据研究区1990年代三期土地利用数据分析了LUCC的时空变化特征,采用特征变量时间序列法及降水-径流模型对LUCC水文效应进行了研究。结果表明:流域土地利用类型以耕地和草地为主,近10年来,耕地和草地面积有所减少,而林地和建设用地面积持续增加;流域年径流和月径流演化过程均表现出明显的下降趋势;LUCC及水土保持具有减少流域年径流、汛期流量以及增加枯季流量的作用,相对于降水因素,人类活动对流域水文的作用占主导地位;在1990~2000年期间,主要由LUCC引起的年均径流减少量达2616.6×10⁴ m³,占该期间实测减水总量的62.19%。     

无定河流域侵蚀产沙过程对水土保持措施的响应

以黄河中游多沙粗沙区代表性支流无定河为例,研究了降水量变化的背景下水土保持措施对无定河流域侵蚀产沙的影响。从总体上看,年输沙量和年径流量都表现出随时间而减小的趋势,梯田、造林、种草和淤地坝拦沙造地4项水土保持措施面积随时间增大的趋势极其显著。全流域面平均年降水量和汛期 (6~9月) 降水量则略有减少的趋势,但其减少趋势的显著性远低于水土保持措施随时间变化的显著性。产沙模数与梯田、坝地、造林和种草面积的关系,均表现出明显的负相关。对基准期 (1956~1969年) 和措施期 (1970~1996) 进行了比较,结果表明,实施水土保持措施以后,产沙模数、径流系数和汛期径流能够被降水所解释的百分比,分别由69%、80%和77%,下降为26%、31%和54%。说明在后一时期中,水土保持措施起了很大作用,因而降水变化对于产沙模数、径流系数、汛期径流量变化的贡献率大大减小了。以1956~1996年间41年的资料为基础,建立了全沙产沙模数与径流系数、汛期降雨量、最大一日雨量、最大30日累积雨量、梯田林草面积和坝地面积之间的多元回归方程,该方程表明,全沙产沙模数随汛期降雨量、最大一日雨量、最大30日累积雨量的增大而增大,随梯田林草面积和坝地面积的增大而减小, 随径流系数的增大而增大。为了区分人为因素与气候变化对侵蚀产沙变化的影响,采用对数据进行标准化处理之后再进行多元回归分析的方法,来确定相对贡献率。结果表明,降水变化和水土保持措施变化对无定河全沙产沙模数变化的贡献率大致相等,前者占50.3%,后者占49.7%。文中还建立了粗泥沙产沙模数与上述影响因子之间的多元回归方程。     

三江源区径流演变及其对气候变化的响应

利用水循环模型、统计检测、对比分析等手段对三江源区水循环过程进行了分析,模拟和检测了1958-2005 年黄河源区出口唐乃亥站、长江源区直门达站、澜沧江源区昌都站汛期、非汛期和年径流过程的变化趋势。在此基础上,检测CSIRO和NCAR两种气候模式A1B和B1 排放情景下未来2010-2039 年源区出口断面的径流演变趋势,对比分析了气候变化的影响。研究表明过去48 年三江源区出口唐乃亥站年径流和非汛期径流过程呈显著减少趋势,而直门达和昌都站径流过程变化趋势并不显著。这将导致对黄河中下游地区的水资源补给显著减少,加剧黄河流域水资源短缺。气候变化背景下,未来30 年黄河源区径流量与现状相比有所减少,尤其是在非汛期,将持续加剧黄河中下游流域水资源短缺的现象。长江源区径流量将呈增加趋势,而且远远高于现状流量,尤其是在汛期,长江中下游地区防洪形势严峻。而澜沧江源区未来30 年径流量均高于现状流量,但汛期和年径流变化并不显著,而非汛期径流变化存在不确定性,CSIRO模式B1 情景显著减小,而NCAR模式B1 情景显著增加。气候变化对长江源区径流影响最显著,黄河源区其次,而澜沧江源区最小。     

贝叶斯框架的Copula季节水文干旱预报模型构建及应用

根据季节径流量相关特性,利用标准径流指数(SRI),通过优选Copula函数和径流量分布函数,构建贝叶斯框架的Copula季节水文干旱预报模型,并对阿克苏河西大桥水文站进行实证分析。结果表明：① Gamma、Lognormal、Normal、Gumbel、Exponential 5种分布函数中,Gamma、Gumbel能较好拟合夏、秋季径流量;② Gumbel-Hougaard、Clayton、Frank 3种Copula函数中,Clayton能较好联结夏、秋季径流量分布函数;③ 构建模型预报表明,2001~2009年秋季发生干旱概率较低(24%~38%),以轻微、中度干旱为主,而2010年发生干旱的概率极高(95%),发生异常干旱的概率偏高(81%),与实际发生的干旱情况基本一致;④ 贝叶斯框架下构建的Copula模型能准确预报季节水文干旱发生,减少预报的不确定性,为特定区域干旱预报提供了一条新的途径。