基于能量平衡原理的潜在蒸散发模型构建

为深入探索气候变化背景下更为精确的潜在蒸散发计算方法, 在淮北平原五道沟水文水资源实验站开展了3组小型蒸渗仪试验, 通过结合平流运动动力项并引入地表净辐射修正参数, 基于能量平衡原理提出一种新的潜在蒸散发模型。结果表明: ① 3组蒸渗仪实测数据中, 2组不同加水方式下的草地覆被蒸散发相关性较好(R=0.95);②新的潜在蒸散发模型在有草地覆被的2组试验中模拟结果的纳什效率系数(E_NS=0.85)和均方根误差(E_RMS=0.83)均优于现有Penman系列等经验方法; ③模型更适用于有草地覆被条件下的蒸散发估算, 在淮北平原地区具有较强的适用性与优势。该模型能够提高区域潜在蒸散发模拟精度, 为流域水循环过程模拟及水资源利用提供科学参考。     

基于土壤植被不同参数化方法的流域蒸散发模拟

植被和土壤是水循环中的重要载体,模拟流域水循环时植被和土壤的参数化也显得尤为重要。通过对比流域蒸散发模拟中分布式模型和集总式概念模型的土壤植被参数化方法,计算了潘家口水库流域不同时间尺度上的流域蒸散发,分析了不同时间尺度下流域蒸散发的影响因素。通过分析得出:(1)分布式水文模型中的植被参数化方法包括对植被时空分布与变化的描述,以及与之相关的土壤-植被-大气中水分和能量的传输过程的描述。(2)从GBHM模型与流域水热耦合平衡模型的对比分析可知,在流域尺度上,年实际蒸散发与潜在蒸散发之间呈互补的高度非线性关系;但在山坡和小时时间尺度上,实际蒸散发与潜在蒸散发之间呈正比关系,并可近似为线性正比关系。(3)基于流域水热耦合平衡模型在不同时间尺度的参数化分析可知,考虑植被土壤水分和植被覆盖度能改善对流域蒸散发的年际和季节变化的模拟精度;土壤水分和植被的影响随着时间尺度变小表现得越来越显著。     

区域蒸散发遥感估算方法及验证综述

蒸散发是地表水热平衡的重要参量,也是农作物生长状况和产量的重要指标。与传统的蒸散发计算方法相比,遥感技术经济、适用、有效,在非均匀下垫面的区域蒸散发监测上具有明显的优越性。系统回顾了5种常用的区域蒸散发遥感估算方法,包括经验统计模型、与传统方法相结合的遥感模型、地表能量平衡模型、温度—植被指数特征空间模型以及陆面过程与数据同化等,分析了这些模型的最新研究进展及各自的优缺点,并对地表蒸散发的地面验证方法进行了概述。最后简要分析了区域蒸散发遥感估算存在的问题,并展望了其未来发展趋势。多源遥感数据协同反演与非遥感参数遥感化、蒸散发模型改进与多模型集成、陆面过程与遥感数据同化、遥感蒸散发估算及地面验证中的尺度问题与空间代表性问题研究等将会是未来区域蒸散发研究中的重点发展方向。     

不同蒸散发计算模型在新疆喀什地区的适用性及对比分析研究

为分析不同蒸散发模型在新疆喀什地区的适用性,结合国内常用两种蒸散发计算方法,应用区域实测蒸发数据,按照年、月、季三个时间尺度分析两种方法计算的适用性和精度。结果表明:VIC模型在年尺度上适用性好于P-M模型,但在夏季和秋季尺度上,P-M模型好于VIC模型,各模型在夏季蒸发计算上好于其他季节。研究成果对于喀什地区蒸发计算提供重要的方法参考。     

基于能量平衡的蒸散发遥感反演模型研究

提出了基于能量平衡方法遥感反演蒸散发的计算模型。采用经验、半经验公式反演计算了模型中各参数。利用提出的净辐射折算系数、波文比,结合Sequin和Itier理论推导了日蒸散发量计算的经验模型,并考虑了温度对瞬时蒸散发量的的影响,提高了全天蒸散发量计算的精度。对于不同地区只要调整净辐射折算系数便可解决由蒸散发瞬时值求算全天值的困难。通过对黑龙江省进行数值试验,证明该模型具有很强的实用性,并且可为旱情监测系统运行提供依据。     

对新安江模型蒸散发计算的改进

基于DEM构建数字流域水文模型，在此基础上，利用新安江模型作径流计算。利用陆面模式SSIB中大气动力阻抗法计算蒸散发的方法改进新安江模型的蒸散发计算，从而改进新安江模型对流域出流量的模拟，得到更为合理的陆面水文模型。以安徽水阳江流域为研究区域，利用改进前后的新安江模型进行径流模拟。结果表明，对新安江模型蒸散发计算的改进提高了模型对径流量的模拟效果。     

利用中国静止气象卫星资料估算黄河源区蒸散发量

以黄河源区为研究区域,选取2009年9月该区域的中国静止气象卫星(FY-2D)观测资料,结合地面气象观测资料,基于能量平衡原理,估算了研究区域的逐时陆面蒸散发量。结果表明:在晴天条件下,利用陆表能量平衡系统模型求出蒸散发量的大小;在阴天条件下,利用FY-2D云顶反照率资料,根据太阳辐射在大气中的衰减过程,得出地表太阳辐射收支,进而求出蒸散发量的大小。卫星遥感估算的逐时蒸散发量与地面观测值相比,平均相对误差15.2%,估算误差在可接受的合理范围内,为实现陆面蒸散发量的业务化奠定了一定的基础。     

半干旱地区蒸散发时间尺度扩展方法对比分析

蒸散发量(ET,evapotranspiration)的时间尺度扩展是遥感反演区域ET的关键。为评价由瞬时潜热通量经时间尺度扩展方法计算日蒸散发量的可靠性,利用美国西南部半干旱地区的Walnut Gulch实验流域草地站点的波文比系统实测数据,分析评价蒸发比法、简化蒸发比法、作物系数法、简化参考作物系数法、正弦关系法、冠层阻力法和修正冠层阻力法共7种蒸散发时间尺度扩展方法的估计效果,统计结果显示,7种蒸散发时间尺度扩展方法总体趋势具有一致性,存在着一定的规律性,采用10:00~14:30的瞬时值估计较为接近实测蒸发值。正弦法、简化参考作物系数法及简化的蒸发比法的模拟精度较高(相对均方根误差在20%左右),比较适合于估算半干旱地区的日蒸散发量。对具有相近气象、气候、下垫面条件和空间尺度数据且具有充足气象观测资料的地区,推荐采用基于简化作物系数的时间尺度扩展方法开展从小时到日的ET时间尺度扩展,对于缺少气象观测资料的类似地区,推荐采用正弦法和简化的蒸发比法进行时间尺度扩展。     

基于水文模型的蒸散发数据同化实验研究

流域蒸散发定量估算一直是水科学领域的研究前沿,水文模型和遥感反演是当前估算区域蒸散发的常用手段。研究通过数据同化,集成水文模型和遥感模型的优势,耦合遥感蒸散发到水文模型中以实现多源数据下的蒸散发数据同化。选择北京市沙河流域为研究区,分布式时变增益水文模型作为模型算子,基于集合卡尔曼滤波同化算法,利用双层遥感模型模拟的蒸散发同化水文模型,并基于地面通量站观测的日蒸散发进行验证。结果表明,同化结果与观测数据相比平均绝对百分比误差较同化前减少,精度进一步提升,且当遥感观测输入频繁时精度改善明显。研究证明基于水文模型的蒸散发数据同化系统,是一种可实现输出精度更高和时序连续的区域蒸散发的新型模式。该成果将进一步丰富创新蒸散发估算的学科内容,为准确理解区域水循环规律提供科学依据。     

不同潜在蒸发计算模型在本溪地区蒸散发计算中的应用对比研究

采用4种潜在蒸散发计算模型,结合区域站点近53年实测蒸发数据对比各模型计算的适用性。结果表明:双源蒸散发模型在本溪地区蒸散发计算适用性最高,其和实测年蒸发相关系数达0. 825 4,其次为P-M公式,其相关系数达到0. 648 9,波文比-能量平衡法以及Dalton公式适用性较低,相关系数低于0. 5。各模型均在夏季和秋季计算适用性最高,冬季和春季相关性较低,适用性不强。为区域蒸发变化及农业需水分析提供参考。     

人类活动引起的我国西北地区21世纪温度和降水变化情景分析

使用IPCCWG1第三次科学评估报告中给出的7个全球气候系统模式的模拟预测结果,分析了人类活动对中国西北地区气候变化的影响.模拟结果表明,由于温室气体增加(GG)或温室气体与硫化物气溶胶(GS)增加,21世纪西北地区气温将可能平均变暖42～60℃·100a^-1.降水的变化较为复杂,由于温室气体的影响,未来西北地区降水将增加;考虑温室气体和硫化物气溶胶的共同影响,则略有增加.模式平均结果表明,未来西北地区降水将可能增加15～39mm·100a^-1.     

SWAT模型在密赛流域的应用与比较研究

为对比分布式水文模型SWAT与典型集总式水文模型新安江模型的径流模拟能力,以钱塘江支流密赛流域为实验流域,以CRU气象数据集为气象输入资料,分别进行SWAT日、月径流模拟与验证,并与新安江模型模拟成果进行对比。结果显示SWAT模型在实验流域的月尺度径流模拟中更具优势,也表明SWAT模型在我国径流模拟中具有良好的适用性。     

Investigating origin of the inadequate medium range predictability of the lower tropospheric ultra-long waves in tropics

The predictability of planetary or ultra-long scale waves is limited by the large growth of errors in these scales in almost all the medium range forecast models. Understanding the cause for the enormous build up of error is, therefore, a necessary task for improving the prediction of planetary waves. A diagnostic analysis of the systematic error energetics has been performed in the Global Forecast System model to investigate the reasons for poor predictability of the lower tropospheric ultra-long waves (wavenumber bands 1–4) in tropics using the analysis-forecast system of horizontal wind field at 850 hPa level during the boreal summer period. For this purpose, systematic error energy is computed in spatial as well as in wavenumber domain. Non-linear inter-scale transfer of error has been formulated and evaluated through energy exchanges among participating triads. The study reveals that the error is generated in the prognostic model initially with a small magnitude at the different locations around tropical convergence zone (TCZ) attributed to the inaccuracy in representing different physical processes like cumulus convection applied in the model. At subsequent evolution of forecasts, error increases and spreads along the TCZ due to its non-linear advection to the higher scales and eventually to the ultra-long scales attributed to the inherent dynamics of the model evaluated through the process of wave-wave exchange of error energy in terms of the triad interactions. The continuous generation and then, non-linear propagation of error up to the planetary scales in the course of prediction increase the uncertainty in ultra-long scales which actually inhibit to predict accurately the planetary scale waves in tropics during medium range forecasts. This work suggests caveats to the modeler’s community in the predictability study of tropical ultra-long waves.     

Groundwater potential recharge estimation in bare soil using three soil moisture accounting models: field evaluation for a semi-arid foothill region

Performances of conventional and improved soil moisture balance as well as locally calibrated empirical models were evaluated in simulating potential recharge (R) and soil moisture content for a semi-arid foothill region. Models comparison with observed values using lysimeter data during [(2011–2012), (2012–2013)] reveal poor performance of conventional soil moisture balance model, underestimating annual R values. Improved soil moisture balance model provided acceptable estimation of annual R for 2011–2012 by considering the wetting of the near surface soil storage. However, it produced the worst simulation for daily soil moisture content once rainy season was over. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the precision degree of initial soil moisture deficit value would strongly influence estimation of R by improved soil moisture balance model, which can be viewed as a limiting factor. Additionally, locally calibrated model produced the best estimation of annual R and daily soil moisture content, which is suggested for the study region.     

Prediction and error growth in the daily forecast of precipitation from the NCEP CFSv2 over the subdivisions of Indian subcontinent

This study investigates the forecast skill and predictability of various indices of south Asian monsoon as well as the subdivisions of the Indian subcontinent during JJAS season for the time domain of 2001–2013 using NCEP CFSv2 output. It has been observed that the daily mean climatology of precipitation over the land points of India is underestimated in the model forecast as compared to observation. The monthly model bias of precipitation shows the dry bias over the land points of India and also over the Bay of Bengal, whereas the Himalayan and Arabian Sea regions show the wet bias. We have divided the Indian landmass into five subdivisions namely central India, southern India, Western Ghat, northeast and southern Bay of Bengal regions based on the spatial variation of observed mean precipitation in JJAS season. The underestimation over the land points of India during mature phase was originated from the central India, southern Bay of Bengal, southern India and Western Ghat regions. The error growth in June forecast is slower as compared to July forecast in all the regions. The predictability error also grows slowly in June forecast as compared to July forecast in most of the regions. The doubling time of predictability error was estimated to be in the range of 3–5 days for all the regions. Southern India and Western Ghats are more predictable in the July forecast as compared to June forecast, whereas IMR, northeast, central India and southern Bay of Bengal regions have the opposite nature.     

TRMM卫星降水反演数据在珠江流域的适用性研究——以东江和北江为例

为评估最新一代TRMM 3B42-V7卫星降水反演数据产品在珠江流域的精度和适用性,选取位于珠江流域下游的东江和北江流域为研究区域,基于地面雨量站点数据评估了该产品的精度和适用性,并结合可变下渗容量（Variable Infiltration Capacity,VIC）水文模型进行了水文模拟验证。对比分析结果表明,在网格尺度上,大多数网格日尺度相关系数达到0.60以上,月尺度相关系数达到0.90以上,3B42-V7产品表现出较好的精度,在区域尺度上精度得到了进一步提高;水文模拟验证分两种情景下进行,情景Ⅰ的结果表明,当水文模型由地面雨量站点数据率定时,3B42-V7产品数据的水文模拟效果不佳,个别区间内存在对洪峰流量明显的低估;情景Ⅱ的结果表明,由3B42-V7产品数据重新率定水文模型时径流模拟效果有了较大改善,说明该产品可在一定程度上作为资料缺乏地区的降水数据来源。     

页岩横向各向同性地应力预测模型中 弹性参数的确定方法

水力压裂是页岩气开采的重要方式,地应力分布是页岩水力压裂的地质依据。基于横向各向同性模型进行测井地应力计算时需要首先确定C₁₁、C₃₃、C₄₄、C₆₆和C₁₃五个弹性参数,其中C₁₁和C₁₃利用测井资料无法直接获得,需要通过预测模型进行估算。利用四川盆地东南部龙马溪组页岩实测超声波资料,建立了五种弹性参数的预测模型,根据模型中是否应用斯通利波将其分为两类,一类是有斯通利波资料的ANNIE、MANNIE1和MANNIE2模型;另一类为缺少斯通利波资料的MANNIE3和V-reg模型。对比不同模型的预测效果,结果表明:第一类模型中MANNIE1模型确定的弹性参数与实测值偏差小,效果最好;第二类模型中V-reg模型的预测效果优于MANNIE3模型。两类模型相比,缺少斯通利波模型的预测效果稍差,但可以同时预测C₁₁、C₆₆和C₁₃,在实际应用过程中具有更大的适用范围。利用V-reg模型确定的弹性参数在焦石坝地区测井地应力计算中进行应用,计算的地应力值与实测值误差小于10%,能够更准确的反映实际地层情况。      

An Overview of Ocean Predictability and Ocean Ensemble Forecast

Ocean is a highly complex and nonlinear dynamical system. The inevitable errors in both data and numerical models lead to uncertainties in ocean numerical prediction. By understanding features and properties in the ocean on multiple scales, it is important to quantify and estimate the predictability of the ocean, and analyze the reasons and mechanism of error growth. The efforts focus on investigating the method to reduce the uncertainties and errors in forecasting and increase the time limit of ocean predictability. The advances will result in improved marine forecasting models and forecasting skill. Understanding limitations and identifying the research needed to increase accuracy will lead to fundamental progress in ocean forecast, which is of great significance. The present study described and illustrated the mechanics and computations involved in modeling and predicting uncertainties for ocean prediction and its modern applications. Firstly, it discussed the fundamental concept and classification of the ocean predictability. The research status of ocean predictability is introduced including the dynamics methodologies and the ocean ensemble prediction. Three of the dynamical computational methodologies including the singular vector, Lyapunov exponent and bred vector method were introduced. Three ocean ensemble prediction methods including initial condition ensemble, multi-model ensemble and atmospheric forcing ensemble were described and illustrated. Finally, this paper gave a future prospective of ocean predictability and its application.     

降水入渗补给地下水滞后时间分析探讨

利用地中蒸渗计多年资料,对不同岩性、不同埋深的蒸渗计降水入渗补给地下水滞后时间进行了分析。认为不同埋深、不同岩性的降水入渗补给地下水滞后时间随着降水特性、前期含水量的不同,表现为不同的时间段,降水入渗补给地下水滞后时间与地下水埋深符合乘幂关系,并推出了相应的数学模型。