Atoll island vulnerability to flooding and inundation revealed by historical reconstruction: Fongafale Islet, Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu

The reef islands formed on coral atolls are generally small, low, and flat, with elevations of only a few meters. These islands are thus highly vulnerable to elevated sea levels caused by extreme events and global warming. Such vulnerability was recently evidenced at Fongafale Islet, the capital of Tuvalu, when it flooded during accelerated spring high tides possibly related to sea level rise caused by global warming. Many factors, not only environmental but also economic and social, determine the vulnerability of an island to sea level rise. In this study, we used data spanning 108 yrs to reconstruct changes in topography, land use/cover, population, and the distribution of buildings at Fongafale Islet. The results indicate that the vulnerability of Fongafale Islet relates to its original landform characteristics: the central part of the island was formerly dominated by swampland that flooded at high tides. Fongafale Islet experienced greater population in-migration and centralization beginning in the 1970s following the independence of Tuvalu and Kiribati. Migrants were also responding to declines in overseas mining operations and limited options for paid employment. As the population increased, construction took place in vulnerable swampland areas. Our results clearly demonstrate that examinations of global environmental issues should focus on characteristics specific to the region of interest. These characteristics should be specified using historical reconstruction to understand and address the vulnerability of an area to global environmental changes.     

Effective sea-level rise and deltas: Causes of change and human dimension implications

An assessment is made of contemporary effective sea-level rise (ESLR) for a sample of 40 deltas distributed worldwide. For any delta, ESLR is a net rate, defined by the combination of eustatic sea-level rise, the natural gross rate of fluvial sediment deposition and subsidence, and accelerated subsidence due to groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction. ESLR is estimated under present conditions using a digital data set of delta boundaries and a simple model of delta dynamics. The deltas in this study represent all major climate zones, levels of population density, and degrees of economic development. Collectively, the sampled deltas serve as the endpoint for river basins draining 30% of the Earth's landmass, and 42% of global terrestrial runoff. Nearly 300 million people inhabit these deltas. For the contemporary baseline, ESLR estimates range from 0.5 to 12.5 mm yr^− 1. Decreased accretion of fluvial sediment resulting from upstream siltation of artificial impoundments and consumptive losses of runoff from irrigation are the primary determinants of ESLR in nearly 70% of the deltas. Approximately 20% of the deltas show accelerated subsidence, while only 12% show eustatic sea-level rise as the predominant effect. Extrapolating contemporary rates of ESLR through 2050 reveals that 8.7 million people and 28,000 km² of deltaic area in the sample set of deltas could suffer from enhanced inundation and increased coastal erosion. The population and area inundated rise significantly when considering increased flood risk due to storm surge. This study finds that direct anthropogenic effects determine ESLR in the majority of deltas studied, with a relatively less important role for eustatic sea-level rise. Serious challenges to human occupancy of deltaic regions worldwide are thus conveyed by factors which to date have been studied less comprehensively than the climate change–sea-level rise question.     

Present and near-future global sea-level changes

Values between 1.0 and 1.5 mm/yr, often quoted in the literature for the present-day rate of eustatic sea-level rise, have been obtained in many cases by averaging records of tide-gauge stations, after having omitted areas of glacio-isostatic or tectonic uplift, though including areas of subsidence. This approach results in an overestimation of the sea-level rise, which is increased by the fact that, for geological reasons and human-induced factors, subsidence is expected to occur more frequently than uplift in oceanic and coastal areas.In the absence of absolutely stable areas in the world, a new approach is proposed, which shows that on the Atlantic coasts of Europe, when land movements are removed, the sea-level rise during the last century has been only 4–6 cm, i.e. two to three times smaller than the estimation claimed by most authors. This value is consitent with current computations of the recent effects on sea level of the thermal expansion of the ocean water (2–5 cm) and of the melting of small glaciers (1.4–5 cm).Estimations of possible sea-level changes during the next century diverge with different authors, varying from a sea-level drop of 7 cm to a sea-level rise of over 3.5 m. There are some problems however with the assumptions made and some feedback phenomena have not yet been taken into account. In addition, the relationship between the atmospheric CO₂ content, temperature and sea level is far from being demonstrated for the recent past.     

Effects of anthropogenic intervention in the land hydrologic cycle on global sea level rise

Recent studies suggest that anthropogenic modification of land hydrology (e.g. through groundwater mining, dam building, irrigation, deforestation, wetlands drainage, and urbanization) could significantly impact sea-level rise, although the magnitude and sign of this effect have been widely debated. This paper attempts a comprehensive overview of the effects of human activities on land hydrology. Estimates are provided for the volumes of water associated with each of the major anthropogenic processes and the corresponding equivalent in sea level.Groundwater mining; and runoff from paved and built-up areas are two major sources of water added to the ocean. In contrast, storage of water behind dams, losses through percolation, and evapotranspiration from irrigated fields withhold water that would otherwise flow to the sea. The net effect of these processes holds back the equivalent of 0.8 +- 0.4 mm/yr from sea-level rise. This is a magnitude comparable to, but in the opposite direction from the currently observed sea-level rise of 1–2 mm/yr. These estimates are still preliminary, awaiting better documentation. Coupling of improved land hydrology models with GCMs will help in analysis of feedbacks, especially the partitioning of water among runoff, infiltration, and evaporation.     

Cross-sectional profiles of Baltis Vallis channel on Venus: Reconstructions from Magellan SAR brightness data

Baltis Vallis is a 6800-km long canali-type channel on Venus. Canali have a unique combination of morphological characteristics: extraordinary length, a single main conduit, and a degree of similarity to terrestrial rivers. These characteristics have given rise to intensive discussions on whether the origin of canali is erosional or constructional. Cross-sectional profiles of such channels reveal the detailed morphology of the structure and enable us to distinguish between these two possible origins; however, canali are just several kilometers wide and are therefore too small for the construction of cross-sectional profiles from Magellan altimetry data. Instead, we propose a new method for reconstructing short-wavelength topography using brightness data from Synthetic Aperture Radar images. We apply Muhleman's backscattering function to the backscatter intensity calculated from the brightness of Magellan Full-Resolution SAR Map images. The estimated vertical error of this new method is less than 5 m for a distance of 1 km across the channel. We studied 120 sites along an approximately 6000 km extent of Baltis Vallis. The channel profiles reveal that in nearly 90% of these sites, the bottom surface of the channel is lower than the surrounding plains by 20-100 m. Clear levee structures and intra-channel ridges are recognized in about 30 and 25%, respectively, of the sites analyzed within Baltis Vallis. Most of the levees occur in the upper segment of Baltis Vallis, while intra-channel ridges are mostly confined to the region between 1500 and 3000 km downstream from the probable source. The average depth and width of the channel are 46 m (standard deviation: 16 m) and 2.2 km (standard deviation: 0.4 km), respectively, and the depth profile along the channel is highly undulatory. The groove-like morphology and paucity of levee structures indicates an erosional origin. Furthermore, the observed undulations in depth along the channel indicate that Baltis Vallis most likely formed by mechanical erosion. The observed morphological transition from levees to intra-channel ridges suggests that the channel-forming processes changed across an area located approximately 1500 km from the source. Carbonatite is the most likely candidate material for the low-viscosity fluid that formed Baltis Vallis.     

Ecological and morphological response of brackish tidal marshland to the next century of sea level rise: Westham Island, British Columbia

In response to climatic warming, eustatic sea level has been predicted to rise by about 50 cm in the next century. While feedbacks between vegetation growth and sediment deposition tend to allow marshes to maintain their morphology under a constant rate of sea level rise, recent observations of marsh deterioration suggest that changes in the rate of sea level rise may induce loss of economically and ecologically important marshland. We have developed a three dimensional model of tidal marsh evolution that couples vegetation growth and sediment transport processes including bed accretion and wave erosion. We use the model to simulate the response of marshes and tidal flats along the Fraser River Delta, British Columbia to 100 yr forecasts of sea level change. Under low sea level-rise scenarios, the delta and its marshes prograde slightly, consistent with historical measurements. While accretionary processes greatly mediate the response to increased rates of sea level rise, vegetation zones transgress landward under median and high sea level rise rate scenarios. In these scenarios, low marsh erosion and constriction of high marsh vegetation against a dyke at its landward edge result in a 15–35% loss of marshland in the next century. Several important behavioral changes take place after 2050, suggesting that predictions based on field observations and short term model experiments may not adequately characterize (and sometimes underestimate) long-term change. In particular, the replacement of highly productive high marsh vegetation by less productive low marsh vegetation results in continued reduction of the system's total biomass productivity, even as the rate of loss of vegetated area begins to decline.     

Growth patterns of the last ice age coral terraces at Huon Peninsula

At Huon Peninsula, Papua New Guinea, prolific coral growth during the last-glacial was episodic and in response to a series of sea-level rises. The resultant step-like coral terraces are currently situated from 20 m up to 140 m above sea-level due to continuous tectonic uplift of the Peninsula. The sea-level rises were in response to periodic partial disintegration of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets associated with severe climate swings and occurred within decadal timescales. The relatively rapid 15 m to 35 m rise in sea-levels exposed new head-room for corals to colonize. The resulting terrace structures contain individual corals that do not appear to have grown sequentially in time and with elevation. Additionally, following the peak, sea level fell relatively slowly over several thousand years and corals grew and filled in the flanks of the terrace such that younger corals now occupy lower elevations. We have labeled these structures “pack-up” reefs. This is in contrast to coral terraces formed during major sea-level rises from glacial to interglacial or glacial to interstadial transitions where the rate of sea level rise is commensurate with coral growth rates and corals can keep up with sea-level rise by growing on top of each other in a time orderly sequence. Deriving sea-level information from pack-up terraces is difficult and is likely to be ambiguous. The periodic fluctuations in climate were associated with atmospheric radiocarbon swings that seem to have varied smoothly with time. The same corals that show a scatter in stratigraphic temporal ordering appear regularly distributed in time and with radiocarbon content attesting to the veracity of the age measurements and at the same time confirm the disordered distribution of corals in “pack-up” type reefs.     

Formation and disruption of aquifers in southwestern Chryse Planitia, Mars

We present geologic evidence suggesting that after the development of Mars' cryolithosphere, the formation of aquifers in southwestern Chryse Planitia and their subsequent disruption led to extensive regional resurfacing during the Late Hesperian, and perhaps even during the Amazonian. In our model, these aquifers formed preferentially along thrust faults associated with wrinkle ridges, as well as along fault systems peripheral to impact craters. The characteristics of degraded wrinkle ridges and impact craters in southwestern Chryse Planitia indicate a profound role of subsurface volatiles and especially liquid water in the upper crust (the upper one hundred to a few thousands of meters). Like lunar wrinkle ridges, the martian ones are presumed to mark the surface extensions of thrust faults, but in our study area the wrinkle ridges are heavily modified. Wrinkle ridges and nearby plains have locally undergone collapse, and in other areas they are associated with domical intrusions we interpret as mud volcanoes and mud diapirs. In at least one instance, a sinuous valley emanates from a modified wrinkle ridge, further indicating hydrological influences on these thrust-fault-controlled features. A key must be the formation of volatile-rich crust. Primary crustal formation and differentiation incorporated juvenile volatiles into the global crust, but the crustal record here was then strongly modified by the giant Chryse impact. The decipherable rock record here begins with the Chryse impact and continues with the resulting basin's erosion and infilling, which includes outflow channel activity. We propose that in Simud Vallis surface flow dissection into the base of the cryolithosphere-produced zones where water infiltrated and migrated along SW-dipping strata deformed by the Chryse impact, thereby forming an extensive aquifer in southwestern Chryse Planitia. In this region, compressive stresses produced by the rise of Tharsis led to the formation of wrinkle ridges. Zones of high fracture density within the highly strained planes of the thrust faults underlying the wrinkle ridges formed regions of high permeability; thus, groundwater likely flowed and gathered along these tectonic structures to form zones of elevated permeability. Volatile depletion and migration within the upper crustal materials, predominantly along fault systems, led to structurally controlled episodic resurfacing in southwestern Chryse Planitia. The erosional modification of impact craters in this region is linked to these processes. This erosion is scale independent over a range of crater diameters from a few hundred meters to tens of kilometers. According to our model, pressurized water and sediment intruded and locally extruded and caused crustal subsidence and other degradational activity across this region. The modification of craters across this wide range of sizes, according to our model, implies that there was intensive mobilization of liquid water in the upper crust ranging from about one hundred to several thousand meters deep.     

Pervasive aqueous paleoflow features in the Aeolis/Zephyria Plana region, Mars

A survey of THEMIS visible wavelength images in the Aeolis/Zephyria Plana region over the two western lobes of the equatorial Medusae Fossae Formation (MFF) shows ∼150 sinuous ridges having a variety of morphologies and contexts. To systematize investigation, we use a classification scheme including both individual ridge and ridge network types, as well as associations with impact craters and fan-shaped features. The morphology of the ridges, their location downslope from higher topography (e.g., crater rims and scarps), and their association with fan-shaped forms indicate that most sinuous ridges formed through overland aqueous flow. Analysis of observations by individual ridge type leads to interpretation of most of these sinuous ridges as inverted fluvial channels or floodplains and a few as possible eskers, with the origin of the remaining ridges under continuing investigation. About 15% of the sinuous ridges are associated with impact craters, but data analysis does not support a genetic relationship between the craters and the sinuous ridges. Instead, analysis of one sinuous ridge network associated with a crater indicates that the water source for the network was atmospheric in origin, namely, precipitation runoff. The broad areal distribution of these ∼150 ridges and the network morphologies, in particular the branched and subparallel types, suggest that an atmospheric water source is generally applicable to the population of sinuous ridges as a whole. This concentration of sinuous ridges is the largest single population of such landforms on Mars and among the youngest. These ridges are situated at a paleoscarp between Cerberus Palus and the Aeolis highlands, suggesting that the precipitation that formed them was orographic in origin. The ages of the equatorial MFF units in which this population of sinuous ridges is found imply that this orographic rain and/or snow fell during some period from the late Hesperian through the middle Amazonian.     

Topographic control on the dynamics of the Svalbard-Barents Sea ice sheet

The land surface of what is now the Barents Sea region may have been eroded to a sub-aerial platform prior to the Quaternary, due to both tectonic uplift-induced and sea-level lowering-induced erosion processes. The Barents Sea was then further eroded into its present form by the subsequent action of ice sheets. Two bedrock configurations, representing the pre-Quaternary sub-aerial Barents Shelf topography and the largely submarine morphology of the present day, were used as input to a glaciological ice sheet model so that the dynamic evolution of the maximum-sized ice sheets, caused solely by a change in bedrock elevation, could be identified. The ice-sheet model was run under constant glacial environmental conditions, until mass balance stability was reached, over both bedrock configurations. The simple parabolic ice sheet surface, which formed on a flat sub-aerial bedrock platform, was found to be significantly different in dynamic character compared with an ice sheet developed on the present submarine bedrock topography. In this latter situation, the central ice dome is drained by ice streams in Bjørnøyrenna, Storfjordrenna and smaller outlet glaciers in the north of the ice sheet.     

Facies distribution of post‐impact sediments in the Ordovician Lockne and Tvären impact craters: Indications for unique impact‐generated environments

Abstract— The Lockne and Tvären craters formed in the Late Ordovician Baltoscandian epicontinental sea. Both craters demonstrate similarities concerning near‐synchronous age, target seabed, and succeeding resurge deposits; however, the water depths at the impact sites and the sizes of the craters were not alike. The post‐impact sedimentary succession of carbonates, i.e., the Dalby Limestone, deposited on top of the resurge sediments in the two craters, is nevertheless similar. At least three main facies of the Dalby Limestone were established in the Lockne crater, depending on sea‐floor topography, location with respect to the crater, and local water currents. The dominating nodular argillaceous facies, showing low values of inorganic carbon (IC), was distributed foremost in the deeper and quiet areas of the crater floor and depressions. At the crater rim, consisting of crushed crystalline basement ejecta, a rim facies with a reef‐like fauna was established, most certainly due to topographical highs and substrate‐derived nutrients. Between these facies are occurrences of a relatively thick‐bedded calcilutite rich in cephalopods (cephalopod facies). In Tvären, the lower part of the succession consists of an analogous argillaceous facies, also showing similar low IC values as in Lockne, followed by calcareous mudstones with an increase of IC. Occasionally biocalcarenites with a distinctive fauna occur in the Tvären succession, probably originating as detritus from a facies developed on the rim. They are evident as peaks in IC and lows in organic carbon (Corg). The fauna in these biocalcarenites corresponds very well with those of erratic boulders derived from Tvären; moreover, they correspond to the rim facies of Lockne except for the inclusion of photosynthesizing algae, indicating shallower water at Tvären than Lockne. Consequently, we suggest equivalent distribution patterns for the carbonates of the Dalby Limestone in Lockne and Tvären.     

Chronology of the Holocene transgression at the North Siberian margin

To establish a chronology of the Holocene transgression in Arctic Siberia, a total of 14 sediment cores from the Laptev Sea continental slope and shelf were studied covering the water depth range between 983 and 21 m. The age models of the cores were derived from 119 radiocarbon datings, which were all analyzed on marine biogenic calcite (mainly bivalve shells). The oldest shell sample was found at the slope and dates back to about 15.3 cal. ka, indicating that the time interval investigated starts prior to the onset of the meltwater pulse 1A (14.2 cal. ka) when global sea-level rose dramatically. The inundation history was reconstructed mainly on the basis of major changes in average sedimentation rates (ASR), but also other sedimentological parameters were incorporated. A diachronous reduction in ASR from the outer to the inner shelf region is recognized, which was related to the southward migration of the coastline as the primary sediment source. We estimate that the flooding of the 50-, 43-, and 31-m isobaths was completed by approximately 11.1, 9.8, and 8.9 cal. ka, and that Holocene sea-level highstand was approached near 5 cal. ka. Between these time intervals, sea level in the Laptev Sea rose by 5.4, 13.3, and 7.9 mm/year, respectively.     

Putative ice flows on Europa: Geometric patterns and relation to topography collectively constrain material properties and effusion rates

Europa's surface exhibits numerous small dome-like and lobate features, some of which have been attributed to fluid emplacement of ice or slush on the surface. We perform numerical simulations of non-Newtonian flows to assess the physical conditions required for these features to result from viscous flows. Our simulations indicate that the morphology of an ice flow on Europa will be, at least partially, influenced by pre-existing topography unless the thickness of the flow exceeds that of the underlying topography by at least an order of magnitude. Three classes of features can be identified on Europa. First, some (possibly most) putative flow-like features exhibit no influence from the pre-existing topography such as ridges, although their thicknesses are generally on the same order as those of ridges. Therefore, flow processes probably cannot explain the formation of these features. Second, some observed features show modest influence from the underlying topography. These might be explained by ice flows with wide ranges of parameters (ice temperatures >230 K, effusion rates >10⁷ m³ year⁻¹, and a wide range of grain sizes), although surface uplift (e.g., by diapirism) and in situ disaggregation provide an equally compelling explanation. Third, several observed features are completely confined by pre-existing topographic structures on at least one side; these are the best known candidates for flow features on Europa. If these features resulted from solid-ice flows, then temperatures >260 K and grain sizes <2 μm are required. Such small grain sizes seem unlikely; low-viscosity flows such as ice slurries or brines provide a better explanation for these features. Our results provide theoretical support for the view that many of Europa's lobate features have not resulted from solid-ice flows.     

Ridges and scarps in the equatorial belt of Mars

The morphology and distribution of ridges and scarps on Mars in the ± 30° latitude belt were investigated. Two distinct types of ridges were recognized. The first is long and linear, resembling mare ridges on the Moon; it occurs mostly in plains areas. The other is composed of short, anastomosing segments and occurs mostly in ancient cratered terrain and intervening plateaus. Where ridges are eroded, landscape configurations suggest that they are located along regional structures. The age of ridges is uncertain, but some are as young as the latest documented volcanic activity on Mars. The origins of ridges are probably diverse-they may result from wrinkling due to compression or from buckling due to settling over subsurface structures. The similar morphologic expressions of ridge types of various origins may be related to a similar deformation mechanism caused by two main factors: (1) most ridges are developed in thick layers of competent material and (2) ridges formed under stresses near a free surface.     

HiRISE observations of gas sublimation-driven activity in Mars’ southern polar regions: I. Erosion of the surface

The High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) has imaged the sublimation of Mars’ seasonal CO₂ polar cap with unprecedented detail for one complete martian southern spring. In some areas of the surface, beneath the conformal coating of seasonal ice, radially-organized channels are connected in spidery patterns. The process of formation of this terrain, erosion by gas from subliming seasonal ice, has no earthly analog. The new capabilities (high resolution, color, and stereo images) of HiRISE enable detailed study of this enigmatic terrain. Two sites are analyzed in detail, one within an area expected to have translucent seasonal CO₂ ice, and the other site outside that region. Stereo anaglyphs show that some channels grow larger as they go uphill - implicating gas rather than liquid as the erosive agent. Dark fans of material from the substrate are observed draped over the seasonal ice, and this material collects in thin to thick layers in the channels, possibly choking off gas flow in subsequent years, resulting in inactive crisscrossing shallow channels. In some areas there are very dense networks of channels with similar width and depth, and fewer fans emerging later in the season are observed. Subtle variations in topography affect the channel morphology. A new terminology is proposed for the wide variety of erosional features observed.     

Future Gravity Missions and Quasi-steady Ocean Circulation

The quasi-permanent sea surface slope, i.e. the signature of oceanic currents that does not vanish when dynamic topography observations are averaged over a long period of time, will be resolved up to spatial scales of about 100 km by the GOCE space gravity mission. However, estimates of the quasi-permanent ocean dynamic topography, derived qualitatively either from models or from observations, indicate that some non-negligible residual signal remains below 100 km in areas of strong surface currents like the core of the Gulf Stream. One therefore expects that future missions can improve our knowledge of the ocean circulation in these areas. However, the potential improvements are small compared to the improvements expected from GOCE itself.     

The significance of coral reefs as global carbon sinks— response to Greenhouse

Coral reefs are net sinks for C, principally as CaCO₃ accretion. It is possible to predict quite accurately the rate of production, given adequate information about any particular reef environment. The best data set for an extensive region is that for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Careful analysis of this region and the incorporation of previously documented present day system calcification rates suggest net production (G) from G = 1 (kg CaCO₃ m⁻² yr⁻¹) for fringing reefs, to G = 1.9 for planar (infiled platform) reefs, G = 3 for ribbon reefs and lagoonal reefs. The 20,055 km² of reefs in the GBR are thus estimated to average G = 2.4, resulting in a total production of 50 million tonnes yr⁻¹. In a 50–100 year Greenhouse scenario of rising sealevel, we predict that recolonisation of present day reef flats will be extensive and prolific. Production will increase substantially, and this could be by as much as 40% (ranging from 0% for deep shoals to 180% for fringing reefs) to give 70 million tonnes yr⁻¹ if the rate of sealevel rise reaches or exceeds 6–8 mm yr⁻¹We estimate 115,000 km² of oceanic atolls worldwide. Drawing on points equivalence from the detailed analysis of the GBR, we estimate the atolls presently produce 160 million tonnes yr⁻¹. We predict that a similar 40% increase could be possible in the next 100 years or so resulting in a production of 220 million tonnes.Accepting an existing estimate of 617,000 km² for reefs worldwide, drawing from our projections from the GBR and the atolls, and making some assumptions about the remaining reef types (we suggest fringing reefs to dominate) we estimate global reef production at the present time to be 900 million tonnes yr⁻¹. Within the next 100 years or so, we suggest this rate could almost double to 1800 million tonnes. In the long term (several centuries) we predict that the continuing trend of recolonisation, particularly of fringing and planar reefs could result in the production of > 3000 million tonnes yr⁻¹ if rates of sealevel rise approaching or exceeding 6–8 mm yr⁻¹ are achieved. Eventually (> 500 yr), reefs could actually “drown” due to inability to match the rate of sealevel increase if that rate significantly exceeds 6–8 mm yr⁻¹.Thus, coral reefs at present act as a sink for 111 million tonnes C yr⁻¹, the equivalent of 2% of present output of anthropogenic CO₂. In the short term Greenhouse scenario (100 yr) we predict this could increase to the equivalent of 4% of the present CO₂ output. In the much longer term (several centuries), if all trends continue, this could increase to the equivalent of as much as 9% of the present CO₂ output.Unfortunately, we also predict that this considerable sink for C will be most likely of negative value in alleviating Greenhouse because of the immediate effect of CaCO₃ precipitation is to raise the P_CO2 of the surface oceans — ie, ot encourage CO₂ efflux to the atmosphere. We do not attempt to quantify this effect.Other Greenhouse changes such as seawater temperature increase, changes in cloud cover, increased rainfall and runoff, increased storm activity, and changes in dissolved CO₂ concentration and surface ocean circulation may complicate the reef response. However, we suggest that sealevel rise will be the dominant influence, at least during the next 100 years or so.     

Scalloped terrains in the Peneus and Amphitrites Paterae region of Mars as observed by HiRISE

The Peneus and Amphitrites Paterae region of Mars displays large areas of smooth, geologically young terrains overlying a rougher and older topography. These terrains may be remnants of the mid-latitude mantle deposit, which is thought to be composed of ice-rich material originating from airfall deposition during a high-obliquity period less than 5 Ma ago. Within these terrains, there are several types of potentially periglacial features. In particular, there are networks of polygonal cracks and scalloped-shaped depressions, which are similar to features found in Utopia Planitia in the northern hemisphere. This area also displays knobby terrain similar to the so-called “basketball terrains” of the mid and high martian latitudes. We use recent high resolution images from the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) along with data from previous Mars missions to study the small-scale morphology of the scalloped terrains, and associated polygon network and knobby terrains. We compare these with the features observed in Utopia Planitia and attempt to determine their formation process. While the two sites share many general features, scallops in Peneus/Amphitrites Paterae lack the diverse polygon network (i.e. there is little variation in the polygon sizes and shapes) and large curvilinear ridges observed in Utopia Planitia. This points to a more homogeneous ice content within the substrate in the Peneus/Amphitrites Paterae region and implies that scallop formation is independent of polygon formation. This work shows that, as in Utopia Planitia, sublimation of interstitial ice is a likely process explaining the formation of the scalloped depressions in the region of Peneus/Amphitrites Paterae. Therefore, we provide a simplified scallop formation model based on sublimation of interstitial ice as proposed for Utopia Planitia. We also show that the differences in scallop morphologies between the two regions may be explained by differences in near-surface ice content, sublimation rates and age of formation of the scalloped terrains.     

The evolution of the Dutch and Belgian coasts and the role of sand supply from the North Sea

During the Holocene, the Dutch and Belgian coasts evolved, controlled by post-glacial eustatic sea-level rise, spatially varying vertical subsurface motions (glacio-isostatic crustal rebound, compaction, tectonics) and spatially varying sediment supply (mainly marine sand). The marine sand supply changed as the tidal dynamics and the wave climate changed due to the changing geometry and depth of the North Sea during the Holocene transgression. These changes influenced the coastal evolution. This study compares the results of separate numerical model calculations of the large-scale Holocene tide- and wave-induced sand transport in the southern North Sea with existing geological data of the Dutch and Belgian large-scale coastal evolution, resulting in a qualitatively good correlation. The large-scale coastal evolution is interpreted in terms of the oceanographical forcing, and an integrated conceptual model of the Holocene evolution of the Dutch and Belgian coasts is proposed. The large-scale wave-driven bed-load transport was an order of magnitude smaller than the tidal transports. The modelled tidal transport direction changed from onshore before 6 ka BP to along shore at present for the Zeeland and Holland coasts; the influence that waves may have had on the tidal transport by suspending sand gradually decreased. This change in direction caused the modelled tidal sand supply to the coast to decrease for the Belgian, Zeeland and Holland coasts. While the offshore area of the Holland coast remained a zone of (small) deposition due to decreasing northward sand transports, the offshore area of the Zeeland coast became increasingly erosional after 6 ka BP due to the encroaching divergence of the tidal transports. Due to uncertainty in the magnitude of the modelled sand transports, but robustness in the transport patterns, the focus is on the qualitative rather than the quantitative model results. When compared with the trend of closure, expansion and later erosion and reopening of the coast, the above decrease in sand supply must have been slow enough compared with the decrease in sea-level rise to cause a temporary sand surplus which decayed to a slight deficit as the decrease in supply and the rise in sea level continued. The Wadden Sea coast exchanged little or no sand with the adjacent deeper North Sea throughout the Holocene.     

Quaternary uplift of northern England

Upland flats, attributable to erosion, have long been recognised in the landscape of the Lake District region of NW England, at altitudes of up to ~ 800 m O.D. Extrapolation using uplift rates derived from dated Pleistocene sites (karstic caves and other features) in the adjacent Pennine uplands suggests that if this succession of flats formed close to sea-level they date from the Middle Pliocene onwards, indicating a subsequent time-averaged uplift rate of almost 0.3 mm a^− 1. Numerical modelling indicates that erosion of surrounding areas at a typical rate of 0.2 mm a^− 1 since 3.1 Ma could have caused this uplift, as well as constraining the local effective viscosity of the lower crust as ~ 4 × 10¹⁸ Pa s and the typical local Moho temperature as ~ 650 °C. It is thus feasible that most of the topography of northern England has developed since the Middle Pliocene, as a consequence of coupling between erosion and the resulting induced flow in the lower continental crust. The much faster vertical crustal motions indicated in this part of northern England, compared with SE England, are thus mainly a consequence of much greater mobility of the lower crust in the north, due to its younger thermal age and the heating effect of radioactive Palaeozoic granites. Uplift of this magnitude, which has previously gone unrecognised, may have affected post-Pliocene global climate.