中国省级土地利用变化和林业温室气体清单编制方法

省级土地利用变化和林业（LUCF）温室气体清单主要评估“森林和其他木质生物质生物量碳储量的变化”和“森林转化温室气体排放”两类主要温室气体的排放源或吸收汇。省级LUCF温室气体清单编制方法以政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）有关国家温室气体清单指南为基础,结合中国LUCF活动的实际情况,特别是在考虑核心关键数据的可获得性与可靠性的基础上制订完成。同时还建立了适用于不同省的关键排放因子和参数数据库,旨在为科学合理地编制中国省级LUCF温室气体清单提供方法学依据。     

地面气旋影响下两次华北暴雪（雨）过程分析

利用GRAPES模式、常规观测和NCEP再分析资料对2010年1月3日和2012年11月3日两次气旋影响华北地区的暴雪（雨）天气过程的形成机理进行对比分析。结果表明：两次暴雪（雨）过程中降水落区与地面气旋的相对位置有较大差别,“0103”过程发生在气旋的东部,“1103”过程发生在气旋的北部。通过检验,GRAPE模式能较好模拟两次降水的落区。通过数值模拟结果分析造成这种落区差异的原因。从热力方面来看,气旋的热力性质不同,“0103”过程一直保持暖心结构,“1103”过程冷空气不断被气旋卷入,使气旋逐渐变为冷心结构,造成冷暖空气相互作用方式不同。另一方面,“0103”过程冷暖空气的交汇发生在气旋与高压系统之间,且在气旋中心附近形成锢囚;而“1103”过程发生在气旋内部,过程的锋面系统由北向南倾斜。另外,“1103”过程水汽是被近地层气旋不断卷入;从风场垂直分布来看,两次过程发生前均有近地面层偏东风的建立,结束时均伴随着中低层系统过境,风向由南风转为北风,但降水过程中风场的演变明显不同。     

《巴黎协定》与国际减缓气候变化合作模式的变迁

由于温室气体排放的全球外部性属性,减缓气候变化必须通过国际合作实现,必须体现一定程度的中央集权,考虑参与主体广泛性、减缓行动的范围和行动力度三大要素。《联合国气候变化框架公约》《京都议定书》及其“多哈修正案”“坎昆协议”等方案,对中央集权程度和三大要素各有取舍,构建了不同的国际减缓气候变化合作模式,但从实践看都未能解决国际减缓合作的问题。《巴黎协定》构建了“承诺+审评”的新模式,有望实现参与主体和行动范围的全覆盖,并通过透明度、遵约和全球盘点机制鼓励各参与方提高行动力度。然而要实现公约目标和科学应对气候变化的要求,《巴黎协定》下的国际减缓合作必须通过强化资金、技术、能力建设机制来保障,并通过进一步明确中长期量化目标来促进各方提高行动力度。     

两种气候变化情景下中国未来的粮食供给

全球温室气体排放导致的全球温度的上升一直是国际社会关注的重点问题之一。利用IPCC（政府间气候变化专门委员会）SRES（排放情景特别报告）的A2（中-高）和B2（中-低）温室气体排放情景，结合区域气候模式PRECIS和CERES作物模型模拟和分析了未来不同的温室气体排放情景下，中国未来2020年、2050年和2080年各个时段粮食的供需情景，并结合未来社会经济的发展分析了气候变化对未来粮食供求的影响，探讨了不同的气候变化程度对未来中国粮食供应的影响。结果表明：如果不考虑CO2的肥效作用，未来我国三种主要粮食作物（小麦、水稻和玉米）均以减产为主，灌溉可以部分地减少减产幅度，如果单考虑CO2的肥效作用，三种作物的产量变化以增产为主。若保持959／6的粮食自给率，人口按照SRESA2和B2情景增长，到2030年的技术进步可使粮食年单产递增0．79／6以上，维持目前的种植比例和种植面积，B2情景下，气候变化对我国的粮食安全问题将不会构成威胁，而A2情景下，气候变化将会对我国可持续发展的粮食安全造成威胁。     

温室气体对亚洲夏季风影响的数值研究

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料检验全球气候模式CAM5.1模拟亚洲夏季风的能力,CAM5.1模式能够较好再现亚洲夏季风的基本特征。通过工业革命前（1850年）、工业革命后（2000年）温室气体排放情景的敏感性试验探讨近现代温室气体增加对亚洲夏季风的影响机制。结果显示:温室气体增加导致亚洲大部分区域地面气温增加,印度半岛中部、中南半岛和中国东部地区夏季风增强,印度半岛中部及北部、中南半岛中北部和中国东部地区夏季降水增加。分析大气能量收支和转换发现,温室气体增加通过增强大气对流凝结潜热释放的方式加强大气热源;夏季陆地为暖区,不均匀加热引起全位能增加,从而增强全位能向辐散风动能的转换和辐散风动能向无辐散风动能的转换,最终导致这些区域夏季风增强。其中,对流凝结潜热增加是温室气体增加造成大气稳定度降低、对流活动加强、对流云厚度加大、对流降水增加的结果;同时,对流降水增加是总降水增加的主要原因。     

江汉平原不同稻作模式下温室气体排放特征

采用静态箱-气相色谱法在江汉平原开展早稻、晚稻、中稻、虾稻和再生稻5种稻作类型温室气体排放监测试验,研究不同稻作模式下稻田CH₄和N₂O排放特征、总增温潜势及温室气体排放强度,为准确评估稻田生态系统温室气体排放提供参考依据。结果表明:CH₄排放集中在水稻前期淹水阶段,排放峰值最高为虾稻（85.7 mg·m-2·h-1）,较其他稻作模式高71.7%~191.5%。N₂O排放峰值主要出现于中期晒田和施肥阶段,排放峰值最高为再生稻（1100.7 μg·m-2·h-1）,较其他稻作模式高16.8%~654.9%。CH₄累积排放量从大到小依次为虾稻、再生稻、早稻、晚稻、中稻;N₂O累积排放量从大到小依次为再生稻、早稻、晚稻、中稻、虾稻;总增温潜势从大到小依次为虾稻、再生稻、早稻、晚稻、中稻;温室气体排放强度从大到小依次为虾稻、早稻、再生稻、晚稻、中稻。CH₄排放占比为82.9%~99.0%,稻虾田高排放主要原因为持续淹水时间长、秸秆还田和饲料投入,探究该模式CH₄减排举措最为关键;中稻由于水旱轮作,稻田温室气体排放最低,可作为低碳减排的主要稻作类型。     

一次西南涡特大暴雨的中尺度诊断分析

采用LAPS中尺度分析模式大气资料,对2008年7月一次西南涡暴雨过程进行天气学降水运动的中尺度诊断计算与分析。诊断计算包括：可降水量、层结不稳定能量、对流可降水量、水汽权重平均风速、水汽通量散度、云水、云冰总量及其通量散度和垂直速度与凝结函数降水率等。结果表明：“西南涡-切变线”系统的暴雨发生在暖湿气团与变性冷气团之间的中尺度风场辐合上升运动区,中尺度雨团发生在层结不稳定的暖湿气团一侧。计算的中尺度垂直运动与凝结函数降水率场,降水率为暴雨到特大暴雨。计算的水汽通量辐合降水率与凝结函数降水率不会完全重合,且水汽通量辐合既可致中尺度“雨”,又可成大尺度“云”,并且云水、云冰通量辐合/辐散,可解释为它们的“正”/“负”碰并增长,而碰并增长产生水凝物增量（降水率）也促成大暴雨。因此,在凝结函数降水率场中产生的中、小尺度对流雨团,加上水汽与云水、云冰通量辐合及其碰并增长,并且借助层结不稳定能量释放和可能产生的强迫“次级环流”及水汽与云水、云冰输送,是这次“西南涡-切变线”系统造成襄樊特大暴雨的天气学成因。     

气候变化背景下江苏省水稻气候适宜性区划研究

综合利用前人研究结果与江苏地区水稻生长所需的光、温、水特性,提出了江苏水稻气候适宜性评价指标为适宜生长期、5—10月降水量、t≥10℃活动积温、日照时数;依据现有稻麦（油）两熟的耕作制度,确立了江苏水稻气候适宜性区划因子和分级阈值。基于1961—2019年江苏省及周边共85个站（市、区）的气象数据,采用模糊综合评判法建立水稻气候适宜性评估模型,并确定综合评估指数,利用ArcGIS的自然断点法,将江苏中熟中粳、迟熟中粳、早熟晚粳、中熟晚粳种植适宜区进行区划。通过30a尺度下的年代际分析发现,由于适宜生长期延长和活动积温增加,使得四个品种特性的水稻适宜种植区域均有所调整,其中晚熟粳稻的种植范围北扩到淮河以南地区。     

BCC_CSM1．1全球模式中极端气温变化的归因分析

利用1°×1°的ERA-Interim再分析资料和气候系统模式BCC_CSM1．1历史模拟（Historical）试验及气候归因试验（只考虑温室气体变化Historica1GHG试验和只考虑自然强迫变化的Historica1Nat试验）的结果,考查了BCC_CSM1．1模式对中国和全球陆地地区极端气温指数的模拟能力,并在此基础上分析了温室气体和自然强迫这两种外强迫的变化对极端气温变化的贡献。结果表明：BCC_CSM1．1可以对中国乃至全球陆地区域极端气温指数的气候态及其变化趋势进行合理模拟,主要偏差表现为模式对极端低温指数模拟值偏低,而对极端高温指数模拟值偏高。对于20世纪末极端气温指数的变化,只有考虑了温室气体变化的外强迫时,模式可以再现再分析资料中极端气温的变化趋势。这表明温室气体的变化对极端气温的变化有着关键性的影响。     

附件一国家温室气体排放趋势及其履约进展

 对《联合国气候变化框架公约》秘书处最新公布的温室气体排放数据进行统计分析,结果显示：相对于基准年（1990年）,附件一国家温室气体排放总量整体呈下降趋势。其中,经济转型期国家温室气体排放总量总体上呈逐年下降趋势,非经济转型期国家的温室气体排放总量有逐年增长的趋势。美国和加拿大能源部门的温室气体排放量增长最为显著,相对于1990年,2005年其增幅分别为19.2%和28.6%;英国和德国能源部门温室气体减排量最为显著,其减幅分别为7.8%和17.4%。在2005年,有超过一半的附件一国家的实际排放量低于其目标排放量,履约进展状况良好。     

ASSESSING THE DICE MODEL: UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EMISSION AND RETENTION OF GREENHOUSE GASES

Analysis of the DICE model indicates that it contains unsupported assumptions, simple extrapolations, and misspecifications that cause it to understate the rate at which economic activity emits greenhouse gases and the rate at which the atmosphere retains greenhouse gases. The model assumes a world population that is 2 billion people lower than the base case' projected by demographers. The model extrapolates a decline in the quantity of greenhouse gases emitted per unit of economic activity that is possible only if there is a structural break in the economic and engineering factors that have determined this ratio over the last century. The model uses a single equation to simulate the rate at which greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere. The forecast for the airborne fraction generated by this equation contradicts forecasts generated by models that represent the physical and chemical processes which determine the movement of carbon from the atmosphere to the ocean. When these unsupported assumptions, simple extrapolations, and misspecifications are remedied with simple fixes, the economic impact of global climate change increases several fold. Similarly, these remedies increase the impact of uncertainty on estimates for the economic impact of global climate change. Together, these results indicate that considerable scientific and economic research is needed before the threat of climate change can be dismissed with any degree of certainty.     

Principles of monitoring of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and sinks

Principles and substantiation of a system of monitoring anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and sinks are considered. The basic task of the system is to estimate the anthropogenic contribution to the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and possible climate effect. The major attention is paid to the system of indirect or “computational” monitoring of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. A multifunctional information system is described in the context of its application for solving a number of other ecological problems. It can be used as an instrumental basis for estimating ecological efficiency of measures aimed at reducing emissions and increasing greenhouse gas uptake. The effect should be considered in totality for all greenhouse gases and most hazardous pollutants. Monitoring of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and sinks includes observations (using modeling) of integral indicators of ecosystems and can be used as part of ecological monitoring (for example, dynamics of soil carbon balance of agroecosystems and forest cenoses). The connection of the monitoring of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and sinks with the satellite monitoring enlarges the possible applications of this information system.     

Analysis of temperature series in Europe in relation to the detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect

Summary A method is developed for analysing climate series. It is based on the assumption that climate undergoes abrupt changes by natural means. It is a generalization of an existing method for dividing a series into two parts. It is assumed that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will lead to a gradual climate change (trend) and that this change will be superimposed upon the natural abrupt changes (jumps). On the basis of these facts, jumps in the direction of a climate change resulting from the increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to be stronger than those in the opposite direction and previous jumps in the same direction. Different criteria are used to support this assumption. The method of analysis is applied to time series of summer and winter temperatures of 13 European stations.The largest increases in temperature do not occur in the recent past; they occur around 1910 in winter and about 1930 in summer. As the test for detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect is made stricter, the assumption put forward becomes weaker. Most time series do not have significant trends within various sub-periods. Differences in variability between successive sub-periods are generally not significant. There is agreement between the results reported here and others in the literature. So far, there is no definite evidence that the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases is affecting the climate of Europe.With 6 Figures     

Complex resource supply chains display higher resilience to simulated climate shocks

Global resource supply chains deliver products such as fish, rice and minerals from producers to consumers around the world, linking disparate regions and economies. These supply chains are increasingly exposed to the impacts of a changing climate, yet receive little attention relative to the study of the production phase. Too often, business learns from experience if and how their supply chains can withstand and recover from climate shocks with little insight on proactively developing climate resilient supply chains. We use a network-based simulation approach to estimate the resilience of supply chains, particularly to disruption experienced during climate-related extreme events. We consider supply chain examples from three Australian resource industries – fisheries, agriculture and mining – that have experienced climate shocks in recent years. We derive four supply chain indices – evenness, resilience, continuity of supply and climate resilience – to estimate the performance of simple and complex supply chains in each industry. As with ecological systems, we show that complex supply chains with a large number of nodes and links are more resilient to disruption. Critically, all chains, regardless of their complexity, will have diminished resilience as climate disruptions become more frequent. This highlights the importance of considering the broader economic benefits of diversified chains, leading to risk reduction and improved design post-disruption. It also reinforces the importance of a systems approach to risk management in supply chains, particularly in considering adaptation options for addressing direct and indirect impacts on the chain as well as the global challenge of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.     

广东省不同地区稻田甲烷排放的差异性及其模型估计

减少温室气体排放以减缓全球变暖是当前全球变化研究的主要关注点。制定区域适应性的减排措施,有赖于对不同环境条件下温室气体排放空间差异性的进一步研究。广东是我国主要的双季稻种植区,其气候条件及稻田耕作方式都有别于我国其他稻区的。为估算广东省区域稻甲烷(CH_4)排放情况,利用IPCC2006清单指南中的稻田甲烷模型——CH_4MOD,模拟计算了2010年广东省21个地市双季早(晚)稻CH_4排放量及其排放因子。结果显示:1) 2010年稻田CH_4排放量为60. 74万t,其中双季晚稻CH_4排放量35. 01万t,双季早稻CH_4排放量25. 73万t。2)稻田CH_4排放量空间分布不均,区域稻田甲烷排放量为粤西的粤北的珠江三角洲的粤东的,排放量分别为21. 22万t、17. 02万t、15. 14万t、7. 36万t。3)双季早稻CH_4排放因子明显小于晚稻的,双季早稻CH_4排放因子为261. 18 kg CH_4/hm~2,双季晚稻为358. 53 kg CH_4/hm~2。4)空间上,粤西地区稻田CH_4排放因子水平较高,粤北、粤东的处于中等水平,珠江三角洲稻田CH_4排放水平最低。     

No regrets?: Economy and environment in Australia's domestic climate change policy process

This paper explores Australia's domestic response to the issue of climate change, and charts the evolution of ‘no-regrets’ as the guiding principle for policy development. The concept of no-regrets encapsulates the ecologically modern idea that addressing environmental problems can bring economic, as well as social and environmental, benefits. It is argued that the degree of reconciliation between environmental and economic objectives achieved has been made possible through a progressive narrowing of the scales over which costs and benefits are weighed, and the exclusion of the non-material benefits of the environment. Tensions between addressing climate change and continuing business as usual, which are far from unique to Australia, remain and continue to limit effective reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.     

Transient climatic response to an increase of greenhouse gases

The physical factors governing the transient climatic response to an increase of greenhouse gases are discussed, reasons for remaining uncertainties are identified, and recent climate modelling results are briefly summarized. The relevance of the transient response, and of uncertainties in the transient response, to questions such as the applicability of equilibrium climate model simulations to a gradual greenhouse gas increase, the verification of model projections, rates of climatic change, and the impacts of preventative strategies for dealing with the buildup of greenhouse gases is also discussed.     

气候变暖对广西双季稻安全生产期的影响

利用1960—2019年广西88个国家气象观测站逐日气温资料，将研究时段分成前30年（P1：1960—1989年）和后30年（P2：1990—2019年）2个阶段，分析早稻安全播种期和安全移栽期、晚稻安全齐穗期和安全成熟期的年际变化规律，并通过比较P1和P2阶段不同保证率下各安全生产期的差异，分析气候变暖背景下广西双季稻安全生产期的变化特征。结果表明：①早稻安全播种期和安全移栽期主要表现为提前变化趋势,晚稻安全齐穗期和安全成熟期主要表现为推迟变化趋势，全区80%和90%保证率安全播种期和安全移栽期平均提前2 d，80%和90%保证率安全齐穗期平均推迟2 d，80%和90%保证率安全成熟期平均推迟5 d和6 d。②安全生产期的变化特征空间差异性较大，桂东北安全播种期和安全移栽期提前天数最多,达6 d以上，百色那坡、靖西地区安全齐穗期推迟天数最多，达6 d以上，全区大部分地区安全成熟期推迟天数在6～10 d，空间差异相对较小。     

Assessing the impact of climate change on representative field crops in Israeli agriculture: a case study of wheat and cotton

Climate changes, associated with accumulation of greenhouse gases, are expected to have a profound influence on agricultural sustainability in Israel, a semi-arid area characterized by a cold wet winter and a dry warm summer. Accordingly this study explored economic aspects of agricultural production under projected climate-change scenarios by the “production function” approach, as applied to two representative crops: wheat, as the major crop grown in Israel’s dry southern region, and cotton, representing the more humid climate in the north. Adjusting outputs of the global climate model HadCM3 to the specific research locations, we generated projections for 2070–2100 temperatures and precipitations for two climate change scenarios. Results for wheat vary among climate scenarios; net revenues become negative under the severe scenario (change from −145 to −273%), but may increase under the moderate one (−43 to +35%), depending on nitrogen applied to the crop. Distribution of rain events was found to play a major role in determining yields. By contrast, under both scenarios cotton experiences a considerable decrease in yield with significant economic losses (−240 and −173% in A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively). Additional irrigation and nitrogen may reduce farming losses, unlike changes in seeding dates.     

Risk mitigation and the social cost of carbon

The social cost of carbon – i.e., the marginal present-value cost imposed by greenhouse gas emissions – is determined by a complex interaction between factual assumptions, modeling methods, and value judgments. Among the most crucial factors is society's willingness to tolerate potentially catastrophic environmental risks. To explore this issue, the present analysis employs a stochastic climate–economy model that accounts for uncertainties in baseline economic growth, baseline emissions, greenhouse gas mitigation costs, carbon cycling, climate sensitivity, and climate change damages. In this model, preferences are specified to reflect the high degree of risk aversion revealed by private investment decisions, signaled by the large observed gap between the average rates of return paid by safe and risky financial instruments. In contrast, most climate–economy models assume much lower risk aversion. Given high risk aversion, the analysis finds that investment in climate stabilization yields especially large net benefits by forestalling low-probability threats to long-run human well-being. Accordingly, the social cost of carbon attains the markedly high value of $25,700 per metric ton of carbon dioxide in a baseline scenario in which emissions are unregulated. This value falls to just $4 per ton as the stringency of control measures is successively increased. These results cast doubt on the idea that the social cost of carbon takes on a uniquely defined, objective value that is independent of policy decisions. This does not, however, rule out the use of carbon prices to achieve the benefits of climate stabilization using least-cost mitigation measures.