青岛及邻区NE向断裂的第四纪活动性及控震意义

近年来 ,在青岛地区对第四纪断裂的空间展布、结构面和地貌特征及其与第四纪地层的关系等进行了较为详细的研究 ,并采用热释光 (TL)及电子自旋共振 (ESR)法对断层物质及断裂带上覆的第四纪堆积物的年龄进行了测定。文中对上述研究成果进行了初步总结 ,认为青岛及邻区内的NE向断裂在空间展布、地貌特征及最新活动时代等方面具有相似性 ,它们的最新活动时代为中更新世中晚期 ,晚更新世以来不活动。除此之外未见其它方向的晚更新世以来活动的断裂 ,结合历史地震及现代小震活动特点分析 ,认为该区域内无≥ 6级地震的发生条件 ,但有发生 5级左右地震的可能性     

青岛沧口-温泉断裂的空间展布及现代活动性研究

以野外地质观察和断裂的地质剖面为依据 ,阐述了青岛沧口 -温泉断裂的空间展布和构造特征。并应用区域地貌、地震地质、第四纪地质方法和断裂活动的绝对年龄资料对青岛沧口 -温泉断裂现代活动性进行了研究 ,认为上述断裂自晚更新世以来 ,其活动趋向稳定状态 ,属于晚第四纪不活动断裂     

太行山山前断裂带中北段晚第四纪活动性研究

本文通过浅层地震勘探和钻孔联合剖面探测,对太行山山前断裂中北段内相关断裂的空间位置和晚第四纪活动性进行了探测和研究。综合认为,保定-石家庄断裂和徐水断裂的最新活动时代为晚更新世早期,而徐水南断裂晚更新世以来没有活动。上述断裂的最大潜在地震震级为6.5级。     

深井盆地南缘断裂特征与活动性研究

深井盆地是山西断陷盆地带北段内部一个规模很小的次级盆地,为中更新世以来发育的三角型山间小型盆地。盆地附近断裂发育,构造复杂,深井盆地南缘断裂为主控边界断裂,控制着盆地的发展演化。本文通过对地形地貌、断裂剖面、地层测年及地震活动等方面的分析和研究,获得了断裂活动时代和活动速率等参数,综合阐述了断裂的空间展布及活动特征。研究表明:深井盆地南缘断裂晚第四纪期间仍在活动,最新活动时代为晚更新世晚期;断裂具有分段性,西段长约6km,多处可见断裂错断晚更新世地层剖面,属正断倾滑性质;东段表现为盆地与黄土斜坡直接接触,由西向东断裂地貌表现逐渐减弱,未见明显的断裂剖面,止于NW向构造,附近发生的4次4 3/4级地震与该段断裂关系密切。     

渭河盆地北缘断裂东段将军山—白水断裂活动性研究

将军山—白水断裂是渭河盆地北缘断裂东段的一分支,位于将军山、东太白山山前,向北东延伸至白水县境内,已有资料及研究成果认为其为晚更新世活动断裂。通过地貌地质调查、音频大地电磁法勘探、浅层地震勘探、钻孔联合剖面探测、第四纪沉积物年代测试等方法,对将军山—白水断裂的展布与活动性进行研究。结果表明该断裂总体走向为NE向,倾向S,为一山前隐伏断裂,最新活动时代为中更新世晚期,未发现晚更新世以来活动的证据,判断其为中更新世活动断层。     

孟连断裂晚第四纪活动特征

孟连断裂是滇西南地区的1条区域性活动断裂。本文通过地形地貌、断裂剖面及地震活动等对断裂的空间展布及晚第四纪活动性进行分析和研究,获得了断裂活动时代和活动速率等参数。研究表明:孟连断裂晚第四纪期间仍在活动,最新活动时代为全新世,运动性质以左旋走滑为主,晚第四纪以来的平均水平滑动速率为3.8—5.1mm/a;该断裂控制着孟连、勐阿等第四纪盆地的发展及演化,沿断层发生了1995年7月12日中缅边境7.3级地震。     

南汀河西支断裂北东段最新活动性分析

南汀河西支断裂由南西段、中段和北东段组成,被认为是滇西南临沧地区规模最大的活动断裂。南汀河西支断裂北东段（盘河农场一云县盆地段）顺盘河、南桥河展布,延伸至云县盆地。通过分析该段断裂的活动表现、断裂活动环境及地震活动表现,认为南汀河西支断裂北东段最新活动大致在中更新世一晚更新世,晚第四纪活动较弱。     

大盈江断裂西南段晚第四纪活动研究

根据断裂地质、地貌特征和卫星影象资料,阐述了大盈江西南段晚第四纪的活动特征和运动方式.结果表明:大盈江西南段主要表现为左旋走滑运动,为晚更新世活动断裂,沿断裂历史上发生过6级左右地震.     

则木河断裂带晚第四纪活动特征及古地震研究

本文着重讨论了则木河断裂带晚第四纪以来的活动特征、古地震事件及大地震重复间隔等问题。结果表明，晚更新世以来则木河断裂主要以左旋水平走滑活动为主，其平均滑动速率为７毫米／年。据对所揭露的１０多条探槽资料对比分析结果认为，最早的一次古地震事件可能是发生在晚更新世末期，从这一时期至今全断裂带共发生过八次７级以上的古地震事件。全新世中期以后，大地震的重复间隔时间为９００年—１２００年。     

福建厦门筼筜港北东向断裂带活动性研究

本文根据航卫片、第四纪地质、地貌、浅层地震、钻孔、年代学等资料,分析了厦门篑筜港北东向断裂带的第四纪晚期活动特征,并阐述了其构造组合特征。结果表明：①断裂带中的文灶-龙山-五通断裂和虎尾山-钟宅断裂为第四纪早期断裂,晚更新世以来不再活动;②篑筜港断裂为晚更新世早、中期活动断裂,晚更新世晚期（约3万年）以来不活动;③文灶-龙山-五通断裂和虎尾山．钟宅断裂将厦门岛切割为3个地块,分别形成了仙岳山地垒、篑筜港地堑和云项岩地垒的构造组合,晚更新世晚期以来地壳以整体性上升运动为总趋势。     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Foreword

Destructive earthquakes have caused great damage in China and the United States and collapsing buildings havecaused many deaths and injuries. The field of earthquake engineering studies earthquake hazards, the occurrence ofearthquakes of various magnitudes, the nature of the ground shaking during an earthquake, the vibration of structuresduring earthquakes, the strengthening of existing structures and the design of new structures to be earthquake resistant,and finally, how to cope with earthquake damage and restore a city to normal functioning. Such efforts are in progressin both countries, but unfortunately, the language barrier interferes with the free flow of information between China andthe Untied States. It would be mutually beneficial if some means could be developed to promote the exchangeof information across the Pacific Ocean. This new journal has been established for this purpose and its success willbe an important step in promoting earthquake engineering in China and the United States.     

WORLD ASSOCIATION FOR SEDIMENTATION AND EROSION RESEARCH(WASER)

正President:Giampaolo Di Silvio,Italy Vice Presidents:Ulrich C.E.Zanke,Germany Zhao-yin Wang,China The World Association for Sedimentation and Erosion Research(WASER),inaugurated on Oct.19,2004,is an independent non-governmental,non-profit organization.The mission of WASER is to promote international co-operation on the study     

Enhancing remote sensing research on global change to improve our understanding on Earth system processes

正Global Change includes climate change and other environmental changes caused by the joint interaction among various layers of Earth. From the positive side, global change provides new opportunities to human and other living forms on Earth. In the meantime, it creates tremendous challenges and negative impact. At present, the negative impacts have reached all primary processes of the global ecosystem and every aspect of human society, especially causing degradation of the ecosystem. For instance, intensive deforestation causes decline of biodiversity; global warming causes sea level rise and increases