南极天气预报业务的进展

第一届南极天气预报国际会议于 1 998年 8月 31日至 9月 3日在澳大利亚霍巴特举行。来自澳大利亚、比利时、中国、法国、意大利、俄罗斯和英国的 40多位代表出席了会议。近年来 ,随着综合科学考察的增多和南极旅游业的快速发展 ,对南极地区天气预报的需求有了很大的增加。许多南极考察站已使用了复杂的预报系统 ,浮标和自动观测站获得的数据、数值天气预报产品、高分辨率的卫星图像都得到有效利用。数值天气预报在预报发生在大洋和海岸附近天气尺度的低压方面取得了很大进展 ,但对当地预报非常重要的许多中尺度系统 ,在模式中还不能反映出来 ,系统的活动主要通过卫星资料来预报。期待将来能够选择南极的某些地区来运行高分辨率的有限区域模式。会议表明 ,随着近年来对高纬地区的天气过程的进一步认识、高分辨率的卫星图像和数值天气预报产品的使用 ,南极地区的天气预报已取得了长足发展。目前存在的突出问题是 :南极以外的气象中心很难得到南极的资料、南极半岛及内陆缺少高空资料、数值预报对南极地形和高纬过程的模拟效果不好等。会议的主要成果是将完成整个南极地区的天气预报手册     

南极固定翼飞机航空气象保障业务述评

中国已经开始利用固定翼飞机在南极开展科学考察和执行后勤保障任务,建立较完备的南极机场气象观测系统和航空气象预报保障系统并提供安全可靠的气象保障服务已迫在眉睫。在对国际上已开展的南极固定翼飞机航空及其气象保障业务现状调研的基础上,对影响南极固定翼飞机飞行的低云、低能见度、结冰、低空风切变等关键气象要素进行了论述。结合我国国内民用航空和空军航空气象保障的情况,讨论了在南极开展固定翼飞机航空气象保障所需的机场气象观测设备、数值天气预报资料和航空气象预报内容等问题。提出了对我国南极固定翼飞机航空气象保障工作的设想:根据极地天气气候特点,评估机场地理位置和当地历史天气事件及气候背景,建立较为完备的气象观测系统;参照民航气象预报内容,重点考虑中山站的机场预报、着陆预报和起飞预报,并加强关注可能对航空产生危险的下降风、吹雪、雪暴和低空风切变等天气现象。     

近年来GRAPES-SDM沙尘模式预报效果检验评估

使用天气学检验方法,对中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所目前使用的GRAPES-SDM沙尘暴预报业务模式在2008-2011年春季沙尘天气预报情况进行检验评估。结果表明：①自2008年以来,GRAPES-SDM沙尘暴模式对中国北方区域沙尘天气的模拟预报能力较好,TS评分和预报效率保持较高的水平;②模式对内蒙古地区、河套地区及甘肃河西地区的预报效果最好,但常有空报或预报沙尘强度偏强的现象;模式能预报出南疆盆地的沙尘天气,但常有预报范围偏小、强度偏弱的现象;对青海地区的沙尘天气常有漏报现象;③模式对沙尘暴频发地区的预报效果较好,对沙尘天气偶发地区容易漏报,模式对新疆东部、内蒙古中西部地区空报较多;④模式对大范围沙尘天气过程的预报能力较好,对零星沙尘天气预报能力较差。通过检验,我们还提出了改进和完善GRAPES-SDM沙尘暴预报系统的一些建议。     

南极冰盖地表能量平衡的研究进展

南极冰盖地表能量平衡研究,是耦合冰冻圈、大气圈和水圈过程的基础之一,对了解冰盖表面物质平衡过程、提升极地天气气候预报水平有着极其重要的意义。随着近年来极地观测水平的提升,南极冰盖地表能量平衡研究取得了长足的进步,特别是在辐射参数化和有效热传导系数模拟等方面。但在南极广袤的地域和多样的天气条件下,已有的研究大都适用于局地环境,限制了我们的模拟和预测能力。因此,适用于极地特殊环境的传感器的研发、关键气候区的科学试验的开展和基础的气象站网建设,能加深我们对冰/雪-气相互作用过程的理解,进而改进已有的参数化方案,应用于多圈层模式的耦合。     

南极中山站吹雪雪暴天气分析

本文利用 2 0 0 3年 1月至 2 0 0 3年 1 2月在中国南极中山站考察期间的天气观测记录和气象传真图 ,对东南极中山站地区的吹雪和雪暴天气进行了统计和天气学分析研究。着重分析了吹雪雪暴天气的时间分布和风场 ,温湿场的特点以及相应的天气形势 ,指出了中山站地区预报吹雪雪暴天气的特点     

南极长城站气象观测与研究

1980年以来,中国对南极的气象观测和研究已取得了显著进展.1985年2月在乔治王岛建立了南极长城气象站,国际站号为89058,此后一直进行天气观测,并向世界天气监视网发出报告.近年来,根据观测资料并结合南极和南半球其他资料,开展了极区气旋、影晌南极半岛的天气系统、大气化学、高层大气、辐射特点、南极海冰状态与气候变化关系等项目研究.这些研究对了解南极当地气候的形成、发展和变化及其对全球气候的影响提供了重要资料.     

应用多因子复相关法制作降雨趋势预测

气候是各种气象要素的综合反映,这些要素如气压、气温、湿度、风、日照等诸因子是一些随时间、空间不断改变着的随机变量,它们之间互相联系、互相制约,客观上存在着一定的关系。多因子复相关法就是利用这些要素之间的相互作用对预报对象的影响力(或叫贡献力)制作一种模式,对未来天气进行预测的一种方法。近年来,在天气预报中得到广泛运用。通过实践应用证明,多因子复相关法预报降雨趋势具有明显的效果,对于搞好短期气候预测工作和气象服务工作具有一定的借鉴作用。     

南极中山站地区冬季低温及增暖天气的变化特点

利用2003年在南极中山站考察期间所获取的气象观测资料和气象传真图对中山站地区冬季的低温及增暖天气进行了天气学分析,揭示了这两种天气的风场、温湿场以及天气现象的不同特点和相应的天气形势,为提高极区冬季气温预报水平提供了新的依据。     

南极地区冰雪消失对全球大气环流和气候影响的数值模拟

本文利用全球大气环流模式通过数值模拟研究了北半球夏季南极地区冰雪覆盖的消失对大气环流和全球气候影响的过程。结果表明南极冰雪消失不仅影响南半球大气环流异常,而且通过引起热带环流异常如增强东亚季风环流和减弱Walker环流等引起北半球大气环流和我国夏季气候的异常。南极冰雪覆盖的消失将给全球气候带来严重后果。文中也对南极冰雪气候效应的动力学机制进行了讨论。     

WRF模式对昆明降水量预报的模拟检验

检验分析2013年到2016年WRF模式对昆明降水量预报的TS评分时空分布特征。采用中尺度WRF模式系统模拟昆明典型大尺度天气系统的近两年雨季降水天气,进行模式预报性能的评估研究,并对比分析WRF模式预报与日常业务主观预报。结果表明:降水TS评分空间分布除了小雨外都不均匀,中雨TS评分是南部和西部地区较优,大雨TS评分是西南部和东部地区较优,暴雨TS评分是东南部和西北部地区较优。WRF模式小雨和暴雨TS评分低于主观预报;WRF模式和主观预报在切变线和孟湾风暴系统下预报性能较好;WRF模式在静止锋、南支槽、西南涡和西行台风过程中的中雨以上降水预报能力优于主观预报,而主观预报对两高辐合和切变线过程的强降水预报较好。     

Temperature variation and its driving forces over the Antarctic coastal regions in the past 250 years

By comparing the oxygen isotopic temperatures recorded by many shallow ice cores from the coastal regions of Antarctica, this paper presents the special characteristics of the temperature variations over the Antarctic coastal regions in the past 50 years, 150 years and 250 years. In the past 50 years, the isotopic temperatures recorded in the ice cores over different sites on the Antarctic coastal regions differ greatly. For instance, although increasing isotopic temperatures have been reported for many sites studied, many sites show decreasing trends, the regional regularity in temperature variations is still insignificant. In the past 150 years, the isotopic temperature trends in the coastal regions of Antarctica show an alternate-distributing pattern. In the past 250 years, all the ice cores from the coastal regions of Antarctica have recorded the so-called Little Ice Age (LIA). The above-mentioned spatial characteristics of the temperature variations over the Antarctic coastal regions are likely to reflect the impacts of the unique Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) and the special terrain (such as the large drainage basins) on the coastal regions of Antarctica. Furthermore, the impacting intensity of the unique Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and the special terrain differs in terms of the temporal scale of the temperature change.     

Temperature variation and its driving forces over the Antarctic coastal regions in the past 250 years

By comparing the oxygen isotopic temperatures recorded by many shallow ice cores from the coastal regions of Antarctica, this paper presents the special characteristics of the temperature variations over the Antarctic coastal regions in the past 50 years, 150 years and 250 years. In the past 50 years, the isotopic temperatures recorded in the ice cores over different sites on the Antarctic coastal regions differ greatly. For instance, although increasing isotopic temperatures have been reported for many sites studied, many sites show decreasing trends, the regional regularity in temperature variations is still insignificant. In the past 150 years, the isotopic temperature trends in the coastal regions of Antarctica show an alternate-distributing pattern. In the past 250 years, all the ice cores from the coastal regions of Antarctica have recorded the so-called Little Ice Age (LIA). The above-mentioned spatial characteristics of the temperature variations over the Antarctic coastal regions are likely to reflect the impacts of the unique Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) and the special terrain (such as the large drainage basins) on the coastal regions of Antarctica. Furthermore, the impacting intensity of the unique Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and the special terrain differs in terms of the temporal scale of the temperature change.     

A review of the interaction between the cryosphere and atmosphere

The interaction between the cryosphere and atmosphere is an essential and extremely sensitive mutual action process on the earth. Due to global warming and the cryospheric melting, more and more attention has been paid to the interaction process between the cryosphere and atmosphere, especially the feedback of the cryosphere change to the atmosphere. A comprehensive review of the studies on the interaction between the cryosphere and atmosphere is conducted from two aspects: (1) effects of climate change on the cryosphere or responses of the cryosphere to climate change; and (2) feedback of the cryosphere change to the climate. The response of the cryosphere to climate change is lagging. Such a lagging and cumulative effect of temperature rise within the cryosphere have resulted in a rapid change in the cryosphere in the 21st century, and its impacts have become more significant. The feedback from cryosphere change on the climate are omnifarious. Among them, the effects of sea ice loss and snow cover change, especially the Arctic sea ice loss and the Northern Hemisphere snow cover change, are the most prominent. The Arctic amplification (AA) associated with sea ice feedback is disturbing , and the feedback generated by the effect of temperature rise on snow properties in the Northern Hemisphere is also of great concern. There are growing evidence of the impact of the Arctic cryosphere melting on mid-latitude weather and climate. Weakened storm troughs, steered jet stream and amplified planetary waves associated with energy propagation become the key to explaining the links between Arctic cryosphere change and atmospheric circulation. There is still a great deal of uncertainty about how cryosphere change affects the weather and climate through different atmospheric circulation processes at different spatial and temporal scales due to observation and simulation problems.     

Perceived deficiencies in the provision of climate and weather information for tourism: A New Zealand media analysis

Climate and weather are important for tourism and leisure as they impact on destination attractiveness and subsequent visitation. Through an archive analysis of media articles and a content analysis of Regional Tourism Organisation (RTO) websites, this paper explores perceived deficiencies in the currently available climate and weather information for tourists in New Zealand. While media reports focused on concern by many RTOs over the poor regional images generated by inaccurate and poorly presented climate and weather data, the RTO websites were found to contain limited climate and weather information. There is considerable potential for RTOs to improve in this respect.     

Recent progress of glaciological studies in China

1IntroductionIn the early 1960s, glaciers in western China were classified into maritime- and continental-types by different glacial environment and physical characteristics (Shi and Xie, 1964). With extensive glaciological investigations in the western regions (Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology and Geocryology of CAS, 1988), Lai and Huang (1990) suggested a new classification of temperate, subpolar and quasipolar glaciers, corresponding to the maritime-, subcontinental- and extremely contin…     

Recent progress of glaciological studies in China

Glacier inventory compilation during the past 20 years and modifications of that for the Eastern Pamir and Banggong Lake indicate that there are 46,342 modern glaciers with a total area and volume of 59415 km2 and 5601 km3 respectively in China. These glaciers can be classified into maritime and continental (including sub-continental and extremely continental) types. Researches show that glaciers in China have been retreating since the Little Ice Age and the mass wastage was accelerated during the past 30 to 40 years. Being an important part of glaciological studies in China, ice core climatic and environmental studies on Tibetan Plateau and in the Antarctica have provided abundant, high resolution information about past climatic and environmental evolution over the Tibetan Plateau and Antarctica. Except for different parameters recorded in ice cores relating to climate and environment changes on Tibetan Plateau, records from ice cores extracted from different glaciers show that the discrepancies in climatic and environmental changes on the north and south parts of the plateau may be the consequence of different influencing effects from terrestrial and solar sources. Glaciological and meteorological phenomena imply that Lambert Glacier valley is an important boundary of climate in the east Antarctica, which is thought to be connected with cyclonic activities and Circum-polar Waves over the Antarctica.     

中国冰川研究进展

Glacier inventory compilation during the past 20 years and modifications of that for the Eastern Pamir and Banggong Lake indicate that there are 46,342 modern glaciers with a total area and volume of 59415 km^2 and 5601 km^3 respectively in China. These glaciers can be classified into maritime and continental (including sub-continental and extremely continental) types. Researches show that glaciers in China have been retreating since the Little Ice Age and the mass wastage was accelerated during the past 30 to 40 years. Being an important part of glaciological studies in China,ice core climatic and environmental studies on Tibetan Plateau and in the Antarctica have provided abundant, high resolution information about past climatic and environmental evolution over the Tibetan Plateau and Antarctica. Except for different parameters recorded in ice cores relating to climate and environment changes on Tibetan Plateau, records from ice cores extracted from different glaciers show that the discrepancies in climatic and environmental changes on the north and south parts of the plateau may be the consequence of different influencing effects from terrestrial and solar sources.Glaciological and meteorological phenomena imply that Lambert Glacier valley is an important boundary of climate in the east Antarctica, which is thought to be connected with cyclonic activities and Circum-polar Waves over the Antarctica.     

Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Can Modern Observation Methods Reduce the Uncertainty?

The future contribution to sea level change from the large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica is composed of two terms: (i) a background trend determined by the past climate and dynamic history of the ice sheets on a range of time scales (decadal, millennial or even longer); and (ii) a rise/fall related to future climate change, whether due to anthropogenic effects or natural climate variability. The accelerating development of remote sensing techniques for monitoring ice sheet behaviour, and the use of high-resolution general circulation models to estimate temperature and precipitation changes are likely to result in improved estimates of the sensitivity of ice sheet mass balance to climate change and thereby to narrow down the uncertainty of contribution (ii). Contribution (i) is much more difficult to assess, because the mass balance displays large temporal variability on year-to-year and even on decadal time scales that masks the long-term trend. So, although modern remote sensing techniques enable accurate measurement of ice sheet surface elevation change, the mass changes derived from such measurements, even if performed over a period of several years, might just reflect a statistical fluctuation around the long-term background trend, which we must know in order to assess the future ice sheet contribution to sea level change on century and longer time scales. The measured volume changes must therefore be evaluated on the background of short- and long-term accumulation rates (e.g. determined from ice cores and high-resolution ice radar) and dynamic model studies of ice sheet evolution on century, millennial and longer time scales. The problems are illustrated by using the Greenland ice sheet as an example.     

近年来北京沙尘天气特征及成因分析

针对2000-2002年北京沙尘天气增加和2003年沙尘天气迅速减少的现象,统计分析了近几年北京沙尘天气的特征和出现的特点,并从大气环流形势、气候特点、气象要素以及可能影响北京沙尘天气的沙源状况进行分析。2000-2002年春季,我国处于西北气流的控制之下,冷空气势力强,以西或西北路径影响我国。2003年春季亚洲东北部高压脊偏强和日本海气旋较弱,使得冷空气路径偏北,入侵我国的冷空气势力较弱,产生大风沙尘的动力条件减弱。气候特点分析表明,1999-2002年北方大部分地区降水量持续偏少,年平均气温偏高,造成土壤水分蒸发强烈,土壤干燥疏松。2002年冬季至2003年春季,北方地区降水量较常年明显偏多,北京周边地区的主要沙源地一直被积雪覆盖,植被覆盖度扩大,有效抑制了沙尘天气的形成。