Scientific management of Mediterranean coastal zone: a hybrid ocean forecasting system for oil spill and search and rescue operations

The oil spill from Prestige tanker showed the importance of scientifically based protocols to minimize the impacts on the environment. In this work, we describe a new forecasting system to predict oil spill trajectories and their potential impacts on the coastal zone. The system is formed of three main interconnected modules that address different capabilities: (1) an operational circulation sub-system that includes nested models at different scales, data collection with near-real time assimilation, new tools for initialization or assimilation based on genetic algorithms and feature-oriented strategic sampling; (2) an oil spill coastal sub-system that allows simulation of the trajectories and fate of spilled oil together with evaluation of coastal zone vulnerability using environmental sensitivity indexes; (3) a risk management sub-system for decision support based on GIS technology. The system is applied to the Mediterranean Sea where surface currents are highly variable in space and time, and interactions between local, sub-basin and basin scale increase the non-linear interactions effects which need to be adequately resolved at each one of the intervening scales. Besides the Mediterranean Sea is a complex reduced scale ocean representing a real scientific and technological challenge for operational oceanography and particularly for oil spill response and search and rescue operations.     

A high-resolution operational forecast system for oil spill response in Belfast Lough

This paper presents a high-resolution operational forecast system for providing support to oil spill response in Belfast Lough. The system comprises an operational oceanographic module coupled to an oil spill forecast module that is integrated in a user-friendly web application. The oceanographic module is based on Delft3D model which uses daily boundary conditions and meteorological forcing obtained from COPERNICUS and from the UK Meteorological Office. Downscaled currents and meteorological forecasts are used to provide short-term oil spill fate and trajectory predictions at local scales. Both components of the system are calibrated and validated with observational data, including ADCP data, sea level, temperature and salinity measurements and drifting buoys released in the study area. The transport model is calibrated using a novel methodology to obtain the model coefficients that optimize the numerical simulations. The results obtained show the good performance of the system and its capability for oil spill forecast.     

Simulating the migration of drifters deployed in the Bay of Biscay, during the Prestige crisis

A main conclusion following the oil spill from the Prestige tanker was that improvements in ocean circulation models were necessary; this was in order to predict, more accurately, the trajectories followed by the oil slicks and hence assist in fight against oil pollution operations. In this contribution, the results of the validation of a semi-empirical ocean circulation model, parameterised for the Bay of Biscay and forced with operational oceano-meteorological remote sensing observations, are shown. The model results have been validated with observations from drifting buoys, deployed in the Bay of Biscay during the crisis. The results show that the model explains a relatively large percentage of the current variability. The comparisons between the real and the estimated drifter trajectories indicate that for 3, 5 and 7 day-long trajectories, the drifter position is estimated with errors of approximately 23, 35 and 46km, respectively. The model reproduces relatively well the trajectory followed by the drifter with the shortest period (23 days).     

Spatial distribution and ecotoxicity of petroleum hydrocarbons in sediments from the Galicia continental shelf (NW Spain) after the Prestige oil spill

The distribution of aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons was determined in surface sediments collected at 36 stations along the Galicia continental shelf (NW Spain), following the Prestige oil spill. Sampling was performed in December 2002, just after the accident, and in February and September 2003. Concentrations of PAHs (summation operator 13 parent components) were in the range of 0.9-422 microg/kgdw, the highest values being close to coastal urban areas (e.g. Pontevedra and A Coru?a), whereas in the stations of the area most heavily impacted by the spill (off Costa da Morte) concentrations were in the range of 14.8-89.6 microg/kgdw, with a certain predominance of alkylated compounds, which may suggest a mixture of petrogenic and pyrolytic sources. The detailed study of petrogenic molecular markers (e.g. steranes and triterpanes) showed the occurrence of an old (weathered) petrogenic chronic pollution in the shelf sediments but not of the Prestige oil, with the possible exception of few stations in the area of Costa da Morte. This was attributed to the heavy nature of the spilled oil that was barely dispersed in the water column and mainly stranded on the coast or sedimented in the form of oil patches. The addition of increasing amounts of fuel oil to a representative sediment sample showed that the molecular indices were indicative of the presence of the Prestige oil when the amount was above 1g/kg of sediment. The toxicity of selected samples (showing the higher PAH concentrations) was tested using the bivalve embryogenesis bioassay. Embryogenesis success reached high values in all cases (80-88%, with 86% in the control), indicating a lack of toxicity in the sediments and supporting the conclusion that the patchiness of the fuel eventually reaching the seafloor reduced its impact on the benthic communities of the Galician shelf.     

Short-term effects of the prestige oil spill on the peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus)

We have monitored the distribution, population status, breeding success, turnover rate and diet of a Peregrine Falcon population in Bizkaia (North of Spain) since 1997. On the 13th November 2002, the tanker Prestige sunk off La Coruña (NW Spain) causing an oil spill that affected the whole of the Cantabrian Coast and the Southwest of France. The total number of birds affected by the Prestige oil spill was expected to be between 115,000 and 230,000, some of them raptors. The loss of clutches during the incubation period increased significantly and was correlated with the loss of females. Moreover, the turnover rate of the population increased from 21% to 30%. The polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations in the eggs, collected from five nests after they were deserted, ranged from 21.20 ng/g to 461.08 ng/g, values which are high enough to cause the death of the embryos and poisoning of adult birds. The effects of pollution reached inland since some inland-breeding falcons prey on shorebirds that use rivers during their migratory flights. As the Prestige oil spill has clearly resulted in increased rates of adult mortality and reduced fertility, we suggest that the environmental authorities urgently undertake measures aimed at protecting the Peregrine Falcon in Bizkaia.     

Towards an operational system for oil-spill forecast over Spanish waters: initial developments and implementation test

The ESEOO Project, launched after the Prestige crisis, has boosted operational oceanography capacities in Spain, creating new operational oceanographic services and increasing synergies between these new operational tools and already existing systems. In consequence, the present preparedness to face an oil-spill crisis is enhanced, significantly improving the operational response regarding ocean, meteorological and oil-spill monitoring and forecasting. A key aspect of this progress has been the agreement between the scientific community and the Spanish Search and Rescue Institution (SASEMAR), significantly favoured within the ESEOO framework. Important achievements of this collaboration are: (1) the design of protocols that at the crisis time provide operational state-of-the-art information, derived from both forecasting and observing systems; (2) the establishment, in case of oil-spill crisis, of a new specialized unit, named USyP, to monitor and forecast the marine oceanographic situation, providing the required met-ocean and oil-spill information for the crisis managers. The oil-spill crisis scenario simulated during the international search and rescue Exercise "Gijón-2006", organized by SASEMAR, represented an excellent opportunity to test the capabilities and the effectiveness of this USyP unit, as well as the protocols established to analyze and transfer information. The results presented in this work illustrate the effectiveness of the operational approach, and constitute an encouraging and improved base to face oil-spill crisis.     

The macroinfauna of the Galician sandy beaches (NW Spain) affected by the Prestige oil-spill

Eighteen sandy beaches were sampled along the 1659 km of the Galician coast (NW Spain) six months after the Prestige oil-spill to study the impact of the fuel and the clean-up activities on the macroinfauna community. A transect was extended at each beach, from above the drift line to below the swash line at five sampled levels; at each level six 0.05 m2 replicates were taken to a depth of 30 cm and sieved through a 1mm mesh, and the organisms collected and preserved. Results were compared with previous data obtained using the same procedures. The macroinfauna was numerically dominated by the amphipod Pontocrates arenarius, the isopod genus Eurydice, the polychaete Scolelepis squamata, and the amphipod Talitrus saltator. As a result of the Prestige oil-spill and the clean-up activities, beach populations were reduced, with Eurydice and S. squamata as the most affected taxa.     

Identification of fuel samples from the Prestige wreckage by pattern recognition methods

A set of 34 worldwide crude oils, 12 distilled products (kerosene, gas oils, and fuel oils) and 45 oil samples taken from several Galician beaches (NW Spain) after the wreckage of the Prestige tanker off the Galician coast was studied. Gas chromatography with flame ionization detection was combined with chemometric multivariate pattern recognition methods (principal components analysis, cluster analysis and Kohonen neural networks) to differentiate and characterize the Prestige fuel oil. All multivariate studies differentiated between several groups of crude oils, fuel oils, distilled products, and samples belonging to the Prestige's wreck and samples from other illegal discharges. In addition, a reduced set of 13 n-alkanes out of 36, were statistically selected by Procrustes Rotation to cope with the main patterns in the datasets. These variables retained the most important characteristics of the data set and lead to a fast and cheap analytical screening methodology.     

Genetic impact of the Prestige oil spill in wild populations of a poor dispersal marine snail from intertidal rocky shores

In November 2002, the sinking of the Prestige cargo ship produced an oil spill of 60,000 tons that affected many areas along the Galician coast (in the northwest of Spain). In a number of rocky shore sites, most organisms (particularly marine mollusks) were nearly extinct at a local scale. We tested whether the local bottleneck/extinction that occurred in affected localities caused any detectable reduction of the genetic diversity in the marine snail Littorina saxatilis, an ovoviviparous rocky shore model species characterized by a low dispersal ability, high population density, and wide distribution range. We compared the level of genetic variation and population differentiation between affected (polluted) and control sites located in seven geographical areas (three sites per area, one impacted and two controls, and two replicates per site) one and a half years after the spill. The analysis included molecular marker variation (microsatellite and AFLP loci) and quantitative trait genetic variation for shell variables in embryos extracted from pregnant females. Our results indicate that the affected populations did not show a significant overall reduction in genetic diversity when compared to the controls, suggesting that the species is highly resistant to losing genetic variability as a consequence of a local short-term pollution process in spite of its low dispersal ability and direct development. However, some genetic effects were detected in the polluted populations, particularly for quantitative shell traits and AFLPs, consistent with local adaptations resulting from the fuel contamination.     

Simulating pathways of subsurface oil in the Faroe–Shetland Channel using an ocean general circulation model

Little is known about the fate of subsurface hydrocarbon plumes from deep-sea oil well blowouts and their effects on processes and communities. As deepwater drilling expands in the Faroe–Shetland Channel (FSC), oil well blowouts are a possibility, and the unusual ocean circulation of this region presents challenges to understanding possible subsurface oil pathways in the event of a spill. Here, an ocean general circulation model was used with a particle tracking algorithm to assess temporal variability of the oil-plume distribution from a deep-sea oil well blowout in the FSC. The drift of particles was first tracked for one year following release. Then, ambient model temperatures were used to simulate temperature-mediated biodegradation, truncating the trajectories of particles accordingly. Release depth of the modeled subsurface plumes affected both their direction of transport and distance travelled from their release location, and there was considerable interannual variability in transport.     

Geological characterization of the Prestige sinking area

The tanker Prestige sank off NW Iberia on the 19th November 2002. The stern and bow of the Prestige wreck are located on the southwestern edge of the Galicia Bank, at 3565 m and 3830 m water depths, respectively. This bank is a structural high controlled by major faults with predominant N-S, NNE-SSW, and NNW-SEE trends. It is characterized by moderate to low seismic activity. The faults have controlled the local depositional architecture, deforming, fracturing, relocating and distributing sediments since the Valangian (early Cretaceous). The Prestige sinking area corresponds to an asymmetric half-graben structure with a N-S trend, which conditions the present-day morphology. The faulted flank outcrops and its activity and erosion have favoured the occurrence of mass-movements (slumps, slump debris, mass-flows and turbidity currents), building valleys and depositional lobes. Nearsurface sediments comprise mostly terrigenous and biogenous turbiditic muds and sands with a minor presence of hemipelagic muds, except on the fault scarp where pelagites predominate. Potential geological hazards resulting from tectonic and sedimentary processes affect almost the entire Prestige sinking area.     

Influence of the oceanographic conditions during spring 2003 on the transport of the Prestige tanker fuel oil to the Galician coast

Hydrographic data collected during the cruise HIDROPRESTIGE were combined with meteorological and dynamic data provided by remote sensors and drifting/moored buoys, to describe the surface circulation of the Northern Iberian basin in March-April 2003. Sea surface winds transported the floating Prestige oil slicks from the sinking area to the continental slope off the Rías Baixas in 1/2 month: the surface current intensity was 2% of the wind intensity and it was rotated clockwise 5 degrees from the wind direction. Mesoscale cyclonic and anticyclonic structures west of 10 degrees W increased the residence time of oil patches in the Northern Iberian basin, as compared with the expected southwards flow of the Iberian current (IC). On the other hand, the Iberian poleward current (IPC) formed a marked surface front with coastal waters, preventing the entry of fuel oil into the rías. PAHs in the surface layer during the cruise were <0.5 microgL(-1), except in the Galicia bank (approximately 1 microg L(-1); where the Prestige tanker was still leaking) and the vicinity of Cape Fisterra (approximately 1.5 microg L(-1); where the convergence front between the IPC and coastal waters vanished).     

A case study of mimo system identification applied to building seismic records

A large number of high quality strong-motion records of building response are obtained from recent earthquake events in California. The accelerometers are typically deployed at several levels from the basement up. In order to learn as much as possible about the building behaviour from these records, a multiple input-multiple output (MIMO) system identification procedure is implemented to analyse these records in a systematic way. The procedure is an extension of the least-square-output-error method applied to a classically damped linear second order system. The time varying behaviour is modelled through a time window approach. The procedure includes (i) preliminary record analysis, (ii) input and model selection, (iii) parameter identification and (iv) drift analysis. The records of a 15-storey reinforced concrete building obtained during the Whittier earthquake are analysed. It is found that the fundamental period is much longer than that of a regular building. The torsional response is significant and is caused by both the translational and the torsional motions at the ground level. The maximum drift occurs at the ground storey. The second and the third translational modes in each direction are as important as the first modes in making up the ground storey drift. When the maximum drift occurs in one direction the corresponding drift in the orthogonal direction can be as high as 30 per cent of the maximum drift.     

Hydrostratigraphic modeling of a complex,glacial-drift aquifer system for importation into MODFLOW

Deposition from at least three episodes of glaciation left a complex glacial-drift aquifer system in central Illinois. The deepest and largest of these aquifers, the Sankoty-Mahomet Aquifer, occupies the lower part of a buried bedrock valley and supplies water to communities throughout central Illinois. Thin, discontinuous aquifers are present within glacial drift overlying the Sankoty-Mahomet Aquifer. This study was commissioned by local governments to identify possible areas where a regional water supply could be obtained from the aquifer with minimal adverse impacts on existing users. Geologic information from more than 2,200 existing water well logs was supplemented with new data from 28 test borings, water level measurements in 430 wells, and 35 km of surface geophysical profiles. A three-dimensional (3-D) hydrostratigraphic model was developed using a contouring software package, a geographic information system (GIS), and the 3-D geologic modeling package, EarthVision. The hydrostratigraphy of the glacial-drift sequence was depicted as seven uneven and discontinuous layers, which could be viewed from an infinite number of horizontal and vertical slices and as solid models of any layer. Several iterations were required before the 3-D model presented a reasonable depiction of the aquifer system. Layers from the resultant hydrostratigraphic model were imported into MODFLOW, where they were modified into continuous layers. This approach of developing a 3-D hydrostratigraphic model can be applied to other areas where complex aquifer systems are to be modeled and is also useful in helping lay audiences visualize aquifer systems.     

Monitoring the Prestige oil spill impacts on some key species of the Northern Iberian shelf

Selected key components of the continental shelf benthic and demersal communities were monitored for the two years following the Prestige oil spill (POS) in order to identify the possible ecological effects of the oil. This work includes the first results regarding changes in abundance, distribution and food habits of hake (Merluccius merluccius), four-spot megrim (Lepidorhombus boscii), Norway lobster (Nephrops norvegicus) and Pandalid shrimp (Plesionika heterocarpus) populations of Galician and Cantabrian Sea shelves following the POS. Significant reductions in the abundance of Norway lobster, Plesionika heterocarpus and four-spot megrim were detected in the POS maximum impact area, located over the Galician shelf. Noteworthy recoveries were observed in the 2004 abundance indices of four-spot megrim and Plesionika. On the other hand, no significant effects were detected in the abundance or distribution of hake juveniles even though the tar aggregates were bound by the same oceanographic drift events as the hake recruits were during the winter of 2003 (Navidad current) in different water column layers of the Cantabrian Sea. Feeding patterns of the four species analysed did not present apparent modifications that can be related to the POS.     

Simulating the influence of physicochemical parameters on subsurface oil on beaches: Preliminary results

Monitoring of sandy beaches after the Prestige oil spill revealed thick subsurface layers (up to 1 m thick) of grey-coloured sand. These horizons were sometimes found under more than 3 m of clean sand. Examination of the sand by electron microscopy confirmed that the colouring was due to oil-coated sand grains, and revealed a sequence of degradation of buried oil. Further analysis of the sand revealed high concentrations of hydrocarbon in the oil-coated sand and that the main biomarkers were indicative of biodegradation, even though the oil was buried.A set of experiments was designed to analyze the evolution of oil from tar balls to coatings. The results revealed that biodegradation is a secondary process in the changes that take place in the buried oil, and that water flow slows down the appearance of grey sand and that low salinity may hinder the oil degradation process.     

The Prestige crisis: operational oceanography applied to oil recovery, by the Basque fishing fleet

On 19th November 2002, the oil tanker Prestige (containing 77,000 tonnes of heavy fuel no. 2 (M100)) sank in 3500 m of water, off the coast of northwestern Spain. Intermittent discharge of oil from the stricken tanker, combined with large-scale sea surface dispersion, created a tracking and recovery problem. Initially, conventional oil recovery approaches were adopted, close to the wreck. With time and distance from the source, the oil dispersed dramatically and became less viscous. Consequently, a unique monitoring, prediction and data dissemination system was established, based upon the principles of 'operational oceanography'; this utilised in situ tracked buoys and numerical (spill trajectory) modelling outputs, in combination with remote sensing (satellite sensors and visual observation). Overall, wind effects on the surface waters were found to be the most important mechanism controlling the smaller oil slick movements. The recovery operation involved up to 180 fishing boats, 9-30 m in length. Such labour-intensive recovery of the oil (21,000 tonnes, representing an unprecedented ratio of 6.6 tonnes at sea, per tonne recovered on land) continued over a 10 month period. The overall recovery at sea, by the fishing vessels, represented 63% of the total oil recovered at sea; this compares to only 37% recovered by specialised 'counter- pollution' vessels.     

A strategy for producing refined currents in the Equatorial Atlantic in the context of the search of the AF447 wreckage

On the night of 1st June 2009, a Rio-Paris Air France flight (AF447) disappeared in a highly variable and poorly observed part of the western tropical Atlantic Ocean. The first debris was located 5 days after the accident. Several reverse drift computations were conducted in order to define the likely position of the wreckage. Unfortunately, the performance of the operational ocean analyses available in the region of interest ranges from 80 to 100 km of positioning error after 5 days of inverse drift computation. In preparation of the third phase of research of the wreckage at sea, a series of numerical experiments was performed at Météo-France and Mercator Océan in an attempt to better compute the surface currents in the region and for the period of the accident of the AF447 (May and June 2009). Tailored high-resolution atmosphere and ocean reanalyses were first produced respectively at Météo-France and Mercator Océan. Several nested experiments were then performed with a small and flexible ocean model limited to the region of interest. The date of the initial conditions and the type of atmospheric forcing fields were varied in order to produce a small ensemble from which information on the sensitivity to these changes could be derived. Probabilistic and statistical combinations between model and observations were tested and a solution was finally selected by means of a comparison of drift computations with independent surface drift observations.     

An equivalent SDOF system model for estimating the response of R/C building structures with proportional hysteretic dampers subjected to earthquake motions

For the purpose of estimating the earthquake response, particularly the story drift demand, of reinforced concrete (R/C) buildings with proportional hysteretic dampers, an equivalent single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) system model is proposed. Especially in the inelastic range, the hysteretic behavior of an R/C main frame strongly differs from that of hysteretic dampers due to strength and stiffness degradation in R/C members. Thus, the proposed model, unlike commonly used single‐spring SDOF system models, differentiates the restoring force characteristics of R/C main frame and hysteretic dampers to explicitly take into account the hysteretic behavior of dampers. To confirm the validity of the proposed model, earthquake responses of a series of frame models and their corresponding equivalent SDOF system models were compared. 5‐ and 10‐story frame models were studied as representative of low‐ and mid‐rise building structures, and different mechanical properties of dampers—yield strength and yield deformation—were included to observe their influence on the effectiveness of the proposed model. The results of the analyses demonstrated a good correspondence between estimated story drift demands using the proposed SDOF system model and those of frame models. Moreover, the proposed model: (i) led to better estimates than those given by a single‐spring SDOF system model, (ii) was capable of estimating the input energy demand and (iii) was capable of estimating the total hysteretic energy and the participation of dampers into the total hysteretic energy dissipation, in most cases. Results, therefore, suggest that the proposed model can be useful in structural design practice. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic neuro-fuzzy local modeling system with a nonlinear feature extraction for the online adaptive warning system of river temperature affected by waste cooling water discharge

This paper proposes a dynamic modeling methodology based on a dynamic neuro-fuzzy local modeling system (DNFLMS) with a nonlinear feature extraction technique for an online dynamic modeling task. Prior to model building, a nonlinear feature extraction technique called the Gamma test (GT) is proposed to compute the lowest mean squared error (MSE) that can be achieved and the quantity of data required to obtain a reliable model. Two different DNFLMS modes are developed: (1) an online one-pass clustering and the extended Kalman filtering algorithm (mode 1); and (2) hybrid learning algorithm (mode 2) of extended Kalman filtering algorithm with a back-propagation algorithm trained to the estimated MSE and number of data points determined by a nonlinear feature extraction technique. The proposed modeling methodology is applied to develop an online dynamic prediction system of river temperature to waste cooling water discharge at 1?km downstream from a thermal power station from real-time to time ahead (2?h) sequentially at the new arrival of each item of river, hydrological, meteorological, power station operational data. It is demonstrated that the DNFLMS modes 1 and 2 shows a better prediction performance and less computation time required, compared to a well-known adaptive neural-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) trained with the back propagation (BP) learning algorithm, due to local generalization approach and one-pass learning algorithm implemented in the DNFLMS. It is shown that the DNFLMS mode 1 is that it can be used for an online modeling task without a large amount of training set required by the off-line learning algorithm of MLP-BP and ANFIS. The integration of the DNFLMS mode 2 with a nonlinear feature extraction technique shows that it can improve model generalization capability and reduce model development time by eliminating iterative procedures of model construction using a stopping criterion in training and the quantity of required available data in training given by the GT.