华南及台湾地区地震活动度异常的研究

应用谷继成引入的地震活动度S的概念及其计算公式,研究了18次台湾强震、11次华南地区中强震的震前S值随时间的变化。结果表明,震前S值出现低值异常的震例占86％。此外,还对华南及台湾地区六个区域的S值综合预报效能R值进行了计算,事实证明,在本区S值具有一定的预报能力.     

大同—阳高地震前静乐井水位记震能力的异常及其意义

本文系统分析了大同６．１级地震前静乐井水位记震能力增强的异常现象，并依此为基础结合国内有关资料，初步提出了利用井水位记震能力的异常变化进行中期强震危险性判断的方法，讨论了建立这种方法的科学依据。     

大同－阳高地震前静乐井水位记震能力的异常及其意义

本文系统分析了大同６．１级地震前静乐井水位记震能力增强的异常现象，并依此为基础结合国内有关资料，初步提出了利用井水位记震能力的异常变化进行中期强震危险性判断的方法，讨论了建立这种方法的科学依据。     

地磁脉动预报地震的研究

阐述了利用数字化地磁脉动观测资料预报地震的研究工作及其结果．根据感应磁效应理论，地磁脉动比起常规的地磁观测方法，更能有效地反映震前地下介质电导率的异常变化，尤其是震前的短临异常变化．我们的研究结果也表明，震前地磁脉动传递函数，有明显的短临异常，且有典型的异常形态，并取得较好的预报震例．地磁脉动预报地震是很有前途的地震预报新方法，它将会使以磁报震的研究工作取得新的进展．      

深井水位记震能力用于地震预报的研究

深井水位记录地震波的能力反映了地下应力场的状况，而记震能力随时间的变化揭示了地下应力场状态随时间的变化。研究表明：当深井水位记震能力ＭＳＴ表现出超过一倍标准差σ的变化后，半年左右在其附近地区往往有中强以上地震发生。根据六年来的预报实践表明，深井水位记震能力是一种花钱较少、效果较好、应用广泛的地震预报前兆手段。     

首都圈地区中等地震的磁效应

该文介绍了1989、1990年首都圈地区所发生的中等地震(不含唐山余震)的磁效应。在该地区,中等地震的磁异常是较明显的,具有一定的监视预报能力,并取得了较好的预报效果,在所发生的5个中等地震中,4个震前有异常显示,并对其中的3个震前做了有震预报。最后,对地磁绝对测量预报地震的途径和异常出现的随机性问题做了探讨。     

中国大陆大震临震预报概率计算

本文应用大震前临震突发异常及其距发震时刻的时间间隔分布特征，研究了大震发震概率随时间的变化。结构表明，单项前兆的预报能力很低，多项前兆的综合预报概率较高。因此，能够对大震作出较好的临震预报。本文以唐山地震为例进行了验证。     

地电场短临预报方法研究

根据1968年注意到震前电场变化与地下水位变化及断层活动有关的理论研究, 认为震前电场变化可能是过滤电势机制引起的。 鉴于地下流体压力分布不均匀、 断层阀作用及地下电流密度与流体流的耦合方程, 特别是由于电场异常显示出快急始慢衰减的特殊图型, 电场异常有的与废油井间歇自喷有关, 有的与流体压力增高有关, 故认为过滤电势作为电场前兆机制是合理的。 实验表明铅板电极可以用来记录电场前兆。 唐山和海城特大地震时和震前, 电场水平分量或垂直分量出现同震效应或震前异常。 利用地电场的异常变化预测地震在国内外均有成功的震例, 地电场法测量技术较为简便, 可做为地震短临预报的一种手段。     

2005年云南会泽、文山5.3级地震短临预报及再认识

2005年8月5日、8月13日云南会泽、文山分别发生5．3级地震。震前,前兆各学科出现不同程度的异常变化,异常台项达30多项,并呈现非线性上升趋势。据此,震前对这两次地震做出了短临预报。震后对两次地震的震前异常做了进一步分析研究,认为异常主要分布在距离震中20～180km范围内,集中出现在震前2个月。水温异常对发震地点有一定的指示意义。     

山西中强地震前形变前兆的异常特征

研究了山西地震带近年来数次中强地震前断层位移测量资料显示的异常变化，从背景异常、中期趋势异常和短临异常的不同角度讨论了震前地壳形变特征及应力场变化情况，得出了形变预报指标，并就有关问题进行了讨论。     

Recurrence anomaly of ground water behavior before strong earthquakes in North China

Introduction The behavior of ground water is influenced by many factors, such as rainfall, exploitation ofground water, atmospheric pressure, tidal gravitation, ground stress variation, effect of surfacewater-body loads (or other loads) and other unknown factors. These factors change the dynamicstate of ground water to different extents and result in the diversification of ground water behavior.As for their mechanism, our knowledge is still superficial. Based on various images of water le…     

井水位长周期事件记录及其机理的讨论

选择了几口具有代表性的观测井, 并对这些井孔在强震前记录到长周期波现象的特征进行了分析。从理论上对地震前的长周期事件给出了较为合理的解释, 认为地震前一些敏感井水位长周期事件可能反映了断层蠕动、静地震与慢地震、断裂的预扩展和地震成核等。井— 含水层系统像一个长周期地震仪, 它为记录到有价值的前兆低频波提供了最佳的频率响应范围。     

Recurrence anomaly of ground water behavior before strong earthquakes in North China

By analyzing the relationship between ground water behavior and strong seismic activity during the past more than 20 years in North China, we have found similar water level descending variation of a part of wells in the short-term stage before several strong earthquakes. The characteristics of anomaly are: at the beginning, water level dropped abruptly or accelerated to drop; then it turned to slow rising with a smaller amplitude than that of descending; earthquakes occurred during the slow-rising process of water level, and at that time or before earthquake occurrence, water level rose with a large amplitude. Among more than 100 wells in North China, the descending anomalies were not recorded for many times, but similar variation processes of water level were noted at different wells before several strong earthquakes, which proves that seismic precursory anomalies of ground water are of certain recurrence features, occurring repeatedly before different strong earthquakes. Therefore, it is necessary to study the genesis of this type of anomaly and its relationship with strong seismic activity. Foundation item: Key project of Ministry of Science and Technology during the Tenth Five-year Plan (2001BA601B 01-01-01).     

水震波异常与中期强震危险性关系初探

近年来在我国井网中发现某些强震之前井水位记震特性的异常现象。本文根据理论分析、试验研究与井网中统计结果提出水震波异常与区域应力状态的变化之间可能存在着一定关系,然后广泛收集了华北地区15口井水位1985—1991年间的水震波资料并系统分析了1989年10月19日大同—阳高M_s6.1地震前后井水位记震特性的变化,确认强震前存在着水震波异常。     

Possible strain events reflected in water levels in wells along San Jacinto fault zone,southern California

Water levels have been monitored in wells along the San Jacinto fault zone since 1977. The three largest earthquakes to occur within 30 km of the segment of the San Jacinto fault zone being monitored with continuous recorders showed magnitudesM of 4.5, 4.8, and 5.5. Two wells in Borrego Valley, 31 to 32 km southeast of theM=5.5 earthquake on 25 February 1980, showed anomalous spikes recording a probable strain event 88 hours before the earthquake. Two other wells 12 km northwest of the epicenter showed no water-level anomalies. No water-level anomalies preceded theM=4.8 earthquake near Anza on 15 June 1982. Anomalous water-level fluctuations occurred in a well near Ocotillo Wells, 13 km northeast of theM=4.5 earthquake on 22 March 1982, 19 to 23 days prior to the earthquake. Similar fluctuations in other wells have not been followed by sizable earthquakes. A simultaneous drop in water level occurred in four wells on 8 September 1982; this possible strain event was not associated with a sizable earthquake. The presumed strain events occur only in wells that show earth tides and may have been the result of creep on strands of the San Jacinto fault zone. Although water-level anomalies have occurred in only one or two wells prior to two out of three moderate (M=4.5–5.5) earthquakes, the simultaneous drop in water level on 8 September 1982 and the spikes in two wells before theM=5.5 earthquake on 25 February 1980 suggest that wells responsive to earth tides may detect strain events.     

山西水2井和岳42井水位记震能力分析

对比分析了唐山地区同一地质单元内、同一观测含水层、水位动态相同的山西水2井和岳42井记录的水震波曲线，显示两井记震能力相差很大，从井孔结构、地震面波特性等方面分析了两井记震能力差异性的成因机理，结果表明，井孔的固有周期是影响水位记震能力大小的首要条件。     

景泰地震前宁夏干盐池井和王民井水位的异常变化分析

分析了甘肃景泰1990年6．2级地震和2000年5．9级地震前，宁夏南部干盐池井和王民井水位的变化情况。发现在景泰地震前上述2口井水位变化既有趋势异常显示也有中短期异常显示。干盐池井水位的中短期异常表现为打破年变规律，而王民井水位则出现了明显的下降变化。2口井水位的异常变化同步，而且具有重复性特征。     

张北6.2级地震前廊坊地区水位中期异常特征分析

对张北6．2级地夺前廊坊市区域内4口浅井的水位变差研究表明，这4口井的水位变差在张北地震前显示出明显的中期和中短期异常变化，存在着“正值上升→下降→负值→地震”的规律。认为浅井水位作为一种附加力源，以流体载荷、孔隙压力、化学腐蚀的形式作用于地壳岩石，对张北地震的发生起到了促进作用。     

The Co-seismic Response of Underground Fluid in Yunnan to the Nepal MS8.1 Earthquake

In this paper, statistics are taken on the co-seismic response of underground fluid in Yunnan to the Nepal M_S8.1 earthquake, and the co-seismic response characteristics of the water level and water temperature are analyzed and summarized with the digital data. The results show that the Nepal M_S8.1 earthquake had greater impact on the Yunnan region, and the macro and micro dynamics of fluids showed significant co-seismic response. The earthquake recording capacity of water level and temperature measurement is significantly higher than that of water radon and water quality to this large earthquake; the maximum amplitude and duration of co-seismic response of water level and water temperature vary greatly in different wells. The changing forms are dominated by fluctuation and step rise in water level, and a rising or falling restoration in water temperature. From the records of the main shock and the maximum strong aftershock,we can see that the greater magnitude of earthquake, the higher ratio of the occurrence of co-seismic response, and in the same well, the larger the response amplitude, as well as the longer the duration. The amplitude and duration of co-seismic response recorded by different instruments in a same well are different.Water temperature co-seismic response almost occurred in wells with water level response, indicating that the well water level and water temperature are closely related in co-seismic response, and the well water temperature seismic response was caused mainly by well water level seismic response.     

澜沧—耿马地震近场井孔水位短临微动态异常研究

本文对澜沧—耿马大震周围井孔水位记录曲线及数据进行了有关处理和分析,结果认为:①思茅井、景谷井水位微形态有四种类型,其中阶变形态和不规则形态有一定前兆意义;②水位后半日波峰时变化对大震有异常反映,波幅异常意义较小;③大震前近场井水位潮汐波因子有较明显的异常。