玉树MS7.1级地震前的形变应变场变化特征

基于1999～2007年和2007～2009年的GPS站点观测数据计算的速度场,分析了青藏亚板块的运动特征.利用块体(旋转与线性应变)弹性运动公式计算可可西里-巴颜喀拉块体和羌唐块体的应变率、可可西里-玉树断裂带的运动速度和应变率,研究了玉树7.1级地震前的形变应变特征.结果表明:可可西里-巴颜喀拉块体处于青藏亚板块运...     

川滇地区地壳块体运动特征研究

通过对川滇地区块体细划,借助均匀弹性块体应变模型,利用1999~2007年和2009~2011年两个时段GPS观测地壳水平运动场,计算了这两个时间段该区块体应变状态、块体内部均匀弹性变形场及相邻块体边界带的相对运动。考虑汶川地震、玉树地震对该区域的地壳运动的影响,分析计算结果认为:(1)计算结果较好地反映了该区域构造运动特征;(2)川滇地区块体东边界运动主要以走滑为主,安宁河断裂和则木河断裂的交汇部位表现为明显的左旋走滑运动受阻,且其两侧块体应变率积累显著,是未来可能的强震孕育区;(3)2009~2011年与2007~2009年相比,整个区域块体边界运动空间差异增强,可能反映了汶川、玉树地震对该区域地壳运动的影响。     

中国大陆及周边地区的水平应变场

推导并建立了块体的两种弹性运动方程：块体的整体旋转与均匀应变方程和块体的整体旋转与线性应变方程. 应用统计学原理,使用西域、青藏和华北块体上的GPS站速度数据,对这两种弹性运动方程与刚体运动方程模拟块体站速度的无偏性和有效性进行了统计检验. 检验结果表明,块体的整体旋转与线性应变方程是描述块体运动的最优模型. 将中国大陆划分为10个块体,应用块体的整体旋转与线性应变方程和块体上的GPS站速度估计了各个块体上的旋转与应变参数,按照1°×1°的间距计算了中国大陆及周边地区上1005个点的应变参数,分析了中国大陆及周边地区应变场的基本特征. 用本文方法得到的主压应变方向与地质学方法和测震学方法得到的主压应力轴方向具有很好的一致性(华南块体除外).     

GPS应变率场计算方法研究进展

基于大地测量资料获取地壳运动与应变积累定量结果一直是国内外重视的地震中长期预测的技术途径。 针对地震变形过程的准确描述问题, 国内外学者基于GPS资料, 发展了多种应变率场解算方法。 本文首先简要介绍了GPS应变率计算的基本原理, 然后系统梳理了国内外多种计算方法的优势和不足, 结果表明: 应变率计算的数学方法只考虑几何关系, 其中整体方法主要适合数据密度和分布较好条件下获取区域地壳变形分布与趋势, 局部方法主要适用于数据较为稀疏情况下描述构造块体的变形特征; 应变率计算的物理方法既考虑几何关系又考虑物理关系, 其中, 位错方法根据主要适合于研究区域存在主控断层的情况(研究区域的变形主要由少数断层控制); 数值模拟方法(如有限元法)主要适用于区域地质、 地球物理的资料比较完备的情况。     

利用最小二乘配置在球面上整体解算GPS应变场的方法及应用

通过对位移与应变微分公式的分析,给出了球坐标系下应用最小二乘配置法由GPS数据整体解算应变场的方法.首先,对模拟数据的理论应变场与采用全部采样数据和随机抽取50%限定采样数据的应变场结果的对比分析,初步验证了最小二乘配置球面整体解应变场方法的有效性.然后,利用1999~2001和2001~2004两期中国大陆区域网GPS速度场数据给出了基于最小二乘配置球面解获得的应变率场结果,概要分析了此期间中国大陆应变率场的动态变化.最后,讨论了最小二乘配置在球面上计算应变场需要注意的问题和建议.     

基于多尺度球面小波解算GPS应变场的方法及应用

提出了利用多尺度球面小波解算GPS应变场的方法,该方法通过建立不规则分布的小波基函数以凸显测站非均匀分布的特征,获取不同空间尺度的应变场.通过对模拟数据进行对比分析验证该方法的有效性,模拟结果显示,多尺度球面小波应变计算方法稳健性较好.在位移场中加入高斯随机误差(均值为0.0mm,标准差为0.5mm)对应变计算结果的影响可忽略不计.从原有位移场随机抽取的60%的数据解算应变场时,仍然能够获取比较可靠的结果,但如果出现大范围的数据空缺,则会对应变结果产生明显影响.基于华北地区GPS测站原始观测数据,通过高精度数据处理方法解算了该区域GPS速度场,根据多尺度球面小波方法,解算了该区域的应变率场及其误差,并分析了其空间分布特征.     

川滇块体东边界主要断裂带现今运动特征分析

基于2009年以来的GPS观测数据,利用块体模型和GPS剖面方法分别计算川滇块体东边界主要断裂带的滑动速度,并结合跨断裂带的区域应变时间序列分析断裂带现今的运动特征。结果表明:从速度场变化来看,2013—2015期的速度场在川滇块体东北部有东向增加的微弱变化;从滑动速率结果来看,鲜水河北段的左旋走滑运动有所增强,拉张运动有所增加;小江断裂带的左旋走滑运动普遍有微弱的增强;从去掉线性的区域应变时间序列结果来看,小江断裂带南段主张应变在2014年底出现了趋势性转折,值得进一步关注。     

应变固体潮不变量理论值计算及其应用

由球坐标系下的应变固体潮理论值所构成应变张量矩阵推导并给出了应变固体潮不变量理论表达式,并采用摩尔圆定理证明了公式的正确性。在此基础上,利用应变不变量与坐标系选择无关的性质,又利用与目前所使用的钻孔应变观测系统的4条测线呈均匀分布的特点,推导并给出了5组计算不变量的观测组合公式,并以应变固体潮理论值取代观测值,按观测组合公式计算出了5组应变固体潮不变量理论值。结果发现,不变量的5组数值几乎相同,仅在小数点后2位有差异,证明了公式的正确性与不变量的唯一性。然后根据由莫尔圆定理给出的5组观测组合公式对漳州钻孔4分量应变观测资料进行了不变量计算,并对计算结果进行了相关与回归分析。最后,对不变量理论值在钻孔应变观测数据处理中的应用作了较详细的介绍,考虑到摩尔圆定理不适用于钻孔应变,又给出了采用加衬模型计算不变量的方法与观测组合公式,并对有关问题进行了讨论。     

小净距隧道扩建爆破动力响应数值模拟方法研究

以国内首次施工的大帽山四车道公路隧道扩建爆破震动控制为研究背景，介绍了爆破数值模拟分析中爆破荷载的计算原理和施加方法。从炸药直接起爆的角度，采用流固耦合多物质单元技术，利用LS-DYNA3D软件建立了扩建隧道爆破荷载作用下邻近运营隧道动力响应的数值计算模型。通过爆腔半径数值模拟结果与经验公式计算结果的比较，得到围岩的合理破坏应变值；对数值模拟计算结果的影响因素进行分析，结果表明材料采用理想弹塑性模型较硬化弹塑性模型的计算结果偏大；由现场实测数据拟合的经验公式验证数值模拟方法的可靠性。可为大断面小净距隧道施工及类似问题的解决提供参考。     

利用GPS时间序列对块体运动进行空间信息分离

利用GPS时间序列对块体运动的信息进行了分离,发现块体的刚性运动、应变贡献部分变形和非规则变形所占的比重有明显差异,其中第一部分比重最大,其余两部分比重相当.从与地震孕育关系的角度看,后两部分与地震孕育的联系更紧密一些,它们反映了地震孕育过程的能量积累和震前的快速形变.最后,利用BJFS,BJSH,JIXN和KC014个GPS连续站数据计算了不同部分的信息分离结果,并分析了2006年河北文安5.1级地震前块体的变形特征.     

地壳应变场观测中体应变与面应变转换系数的计算

将钻孔体应变仪与分量式应变仪的观测资料在面应变平台上进行整合,对于解决目前两种应变仪观测数据的评估、分析、处理和地震预报问题有实际意义．根据潘立宙-陈沅俊和Evertson理论及弹性力学知识,分别建立了平面应力作用下体应变和面应变观测的力学模型,推导了观测钻孔、空孔和无孔岩石体应变与面应变转换系数的计算公式,发现它们都可以归结为同一公式描述,差异仅在于k（体应变仪钢筒内壁或无孔岩石面应变与空孔岩石面应变之比）的取值不同．用Evertson理论推导的公式与空孔岩石情形相近,当岩石弹性模量为4times;1010——8times;1010 Pa时,二者都可以看成是对潘-陈公式的一种简化、近似计算;无孔岩石的情况则相当于在岩石弹性模量为1times;1010 Pa时对该式的一种估计. 文中结合实际情况对转换系数的各种影响因素进行了详细分析．      

俯冲带耦合作用对苏门答腊地区应变场影响的三维数值模拟

采用有限元方法模拟了俯冲带耦合作用对巽他弧及其邻区的影响.根据模拟结果,对比GPS、地震和地质学观测数据,定量分析了苏门答腊及其周边地区的应变强度和主应变方向的分布特征,据此探讨了该区构造特征、地震发生模式与耦合面积之间的关系.模型由具有黏弹性性质的岩石圈和软流圈上地幔组成,其中岩石圈包括了大陆岩石圈和大洋岩石圈以及俯冲至上地幔中的俯冲板片.研究结果如下:(1) 通过对不同俯冲带耦合面积模拟,发现苏门答腊前弧伴随耦合面积的增加应变强度逐渐增大,而增大的应变强度又影响了其周边地区的应变分布特征,因此整个苏门答腊前弧呈现出明显的分段性,这与该区地震破裂模式有较好的对应.(2)苏门答腊北部地区主应变方向与南部相比存在一定的差异,该差异是俯冲带的俯冲方向、俯冲速度、俯冲形态以及不同区域间耦合面积共同作用的结果.(3)虽然苏门答腊2004年地震主震区处于弱耦合状态,但从本文模拟的结果中可以看到,在俯冲作用下该区依然存在垂直向下的位移,这为地震激发海啸提供了有利的构造环境.     

光弹实验构造渤海强震区应力场及地震危险区判定研究

本文在对渤海强震区地质构造环境、断裂带分布特征进行详细分析的基础上,采用机械加工聚碳酸酯材料制成渤海强震区域的地质模型,分别运用集中、二点和均布加载方式,用光弹实验方法模拟特定构造框架下应力、应变场的变化特征。通过对光弹实验数据的分析与处理,在对比不同加载方式下应力积累区域和地震危险点的基础上,判定渤海强震构造区中的地震危险区域。     

鲁西平原地区土体剪切波速与埋深关系研究

鲁西平原地区属黄河冲积平原,地势平坦,工程地质情况较单一,场地类别以Ⅲ类场地为主。利用鲁西平原地区常见土类的剪切波速与埋深的数据,使用4种回归模型建立了它们之间的经验关系式,并对这些经验式的合理性进行了讨论。结果表明:鲁西平原地区常见土类的剪切波速与埋深之间有明显的相关性,基于幂函数的回归模型（v_si=ah_i^b+c）得到的经验关系式拟合效果最佳,具有较好的应用价值。     

Earthquake induced ground strains in the presence of strong lateral soil heterogeneities

Transient ground strains are recognized to govern the response of buried elongated structures, such as pipelines and tunnels, under seismic wave propagation. Since a direct measure of ground strains is not generally available, simplified formulas relating peak ground strain to peak ground velocity, and based on 1D wave propagation theory in homogeneous media, are typically used for seismic design. Although they are adopted by most of the available technical guidelines, the use of these formulas may be questionable in complex realistic situations as either in the presence of strong lateral discontinuities, or in the epicentral area of large earthquakes, or in sites where relevant site amplification effects and spatial incoherency of ground motion are expected. To provide a contribution to overcome the previous limitations, a simplified formula relating peak ground longitudinal strain to peak ground velocity is proposed in this paper, as a function of the geometrical and dynamic parameters which have the major influence on strain evaluation. The formula has been obtained under small-strain assumptions, so that it can reasonably be applied under linear or moderately non-linear soil behaviour. The adequacy of this formula in the most common case of vertically propagating S-waves has been checked against 2D numerical solutions by Spectral Elements (SE) for representative geological cross-sections in Parkway Valley (New Zealand) and in the cities of Catania (Italy) and Thessaloniki (Greece). The shear strain and the longitudinal strain variability with depth is also investigated, through some qualitative examples and comparisons with analytical formulas.     

APPLICATION OF TWO SIMPLIFIED NEWMARK MODELS TO THE ASSESSMENT OF LANDSLIDES TRIGGERED BY THE 2008 WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE

At present, with the wide application of the Newmark method, various Newmark empirical formulas with different ground motion parameters have been fitted by many researchers based on global strong-motion records. However, the existing study about the Wenchuan earthquake does not quantitatively evaluate the applicability of different Newmark models based on the actual landslides distribution. The aim of this paper is to present a comparison between observed landslides from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and predicted landslides using Newmark displacement method based on different ground motion parameters. The factor-of-safety map and critical acceleration(a_c)map in the study area are obtained by using the terrain data and geological data. The distribution of Arias intensity(I_a)and PGA in the study area is obtained by using the attenuation formulas of Arias intensity(I_a)and PGA, which is regressed by Wenchuan ground motion records. Based on the distribution of Arias intensity(I_a)and PGA parameters, we obtained the predicted locations of landslide using Newmark regression equations which are generated using global strong-motion records. The results shows that the assessment results can better reflect the macroscopic distribution characteristics of co-seismic landslides, most predicted landslide cells are distributed on the two sides of the Beichuan-Yingxiu Fault, especially the Pengguan complex rock mass in the hanging wall. The abilities to predict landslide occurrence of the two Newmark simplified models are different. On the whole, the evaluated result of simplified model based on parameter I_a is better than that based on PGA parameter. The GFC values obtained by the Newmark model of I_a and PGA parameters are 65.7% and 34.9%respectively. The evaluated result based on I_a can better reflect the macro distribution of coseismic landslides. The Ls_Pred value based on the Newmark model of parameter I_a is 26.5%, and the Ls_Pred value based on the Newmark model of PGA parameter is 10.3%. However the total area of predicted landslides accounts for 2.4% of the study area, which indicates that the predicted landslide cells are greater than the observed landslide cells. This reminds us that depending on the current input of shear strength and ground-motion parameters, we can only conduct landslide hazard assessment in macro areas, the ability to predict landslide can be improved using more accurate topographic data and input parameters.     

On the computation of area probabilities based on a spatial stochastic model for precipitation cells and precipitation amounts

A main task of weather services is the issuing of warnings for potentially harmful weather events. Automated warning guidances can be derived, e.g., from statistical post-processing of numerical weather prediction using meteorological observations. These statistical methods commonly estimate the probability of an event (e.g. precipitation) occurring at a fixed location (a point probability). However, there are no operationally applicable techniques for estimating the probability of precipitation occurring anywhere in a geographical region (an area probability). We present an approach to the estimation of area probabilities for the occurrence of precipitation exceeding given thresholds. This approach is based on a spatial stochastic model for precipitation cells and precipitation amounts. The basic modeling component is a non-stationary germ-grain model with circular grains for the representation of precipitation cells. Then, we assign a randomly scaled response function to each precipitation cell and sum these functions up to obtain precipitation amounts. We derive formulas for expectations and variances of point precipitation amounts and use these formulas to compute further model characteristics based on available sequences of point probabilities. Area probabilities for arbitrary areas and thresholds can be estimated by repeated Monte Carlo simulation of the fitted precipitation model. Finally, we verify the proposed model by comparing the generated area probabilities with independent rain gauge adjusted radar data. The novelty of the presented approach is that, for the first time, a widely applicable estimation of area probabilities is possible, which is based solely on predicted point probabilities (i.e., neither precipitation observations nor further input of the forecaster are necessary). Therefore, this method can be applied for operational weather predictions.     

Strain accumulation in sand due to cyclic loading: drained triaxial tests

Our aim is the prediction of the accumulation of strain and/or stress under cyclic loading with many (thousands to millions) cycles and relatively small amplitudes. A high-cycle constitutive model is used for this purpose. Its formulas are based on numerous cyclic tests. This paper describes drained tests with triaxial compression and uniaxial stress cycles. The influence of the strain amplitude, the average stress, the density, the cyclic preloading history and the grain size distribution on the direction and the intensity of strain accumulation is discussed.