三江平原沼泽湿地时空动态特征

1IntroductionThe wetland ecosystem is the latest one understood by humans and it is the most seriously damaged ecosystem (Williams, 1991). The Sanjiang Plain, located in northeast China, is the largest concentrated area of freshwater wetland in China. Since the 1950s, large-scale reclamation of the marsh in the Sanjiang Plain has been started. According to statistics, the natural marsh has lost about 80% of its total area. The marsh resources in the Sanjiang Plain decreased greatly and the…     

南方水稻复种指数变化对国家粮食产能的影响及其政策启示（英文）

Changes in rice production in Southern China are crucial to national food security. This study employed Landsat images to map the distributions of paddy rice-cropping systems in Southern China in 1990 and 2015. The impact of rice multiple cropping index changes on grain production capacity was then evaluated. Three important results were obtained for the 1990 to 2015 study period. First, the multiple cropping index for rice decreased from 148.3% to 129.3%, and 253.16×10~4 ha of land area was converted from double-cropping to single-cropping rice, termed "double to single". The area with the most dramatic changes is in the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain. The rice-cropping system distribution in Southern China showed a change from north to south with double-cropping rice shrinking and single-cropping rice expanding. Second, the "double to single" conversion led to a reduction of 6.1% and 2.6% in rice and grain production, respectively. Hunan and Jiangxi Provinces, located in the main rice producing areas, and Zhejiang, which has shown better economic development, exhibited large reductions in rice production due to the "double to single" conversion, all exceeding 13%. Third, the grain production capacity of converted "double to single" paddy fields is equivalent to that of 223.3 × 10~4 ha of newly reclaimed cultivated land, which is 54% of the total newly cultivated land reclaimed through the 2001–2015 land consolidation project. It is also 1.7 times the target goal for newly cultivated land in the national land consolidation plan for 2016–2020. Making full use of the converted "double to single" paddy fields can save 167.44 billion yuan in newly reclaimed cultivated land costs. Therefore, instead of pursuing low-quality new arable land, it is better to make full use of the existing high-quality arable land. Based on these results, the government should change the assessment method for cultivated land balance, and incorporate the sown area increased by improving the multiple cropping index into the cultivated land compensation indicator.     

Land use change and its ecological effect in Qian'an County of Jilin Province

Based on GIS and statistical methods, with the help of searching historical literatures and calculating the landscape indices, the land use changes of Qian'an County in both spatial and temporal aspects from 1945 to 1996 has been analyzed in this paper. And the driving forces of land use changes and their ecological effects are discussed too. The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) Land use changed greatly in Qian'an during 1945-1996, characterized by a decrease in grassland, wetland and water bodies, and an increase in cultivated land, saline-alkali land, and the land for housing and other construction purposes. Grassland decreased by 175,828.66 ha, and cultivated land increased by 102,137.23 ha over the half century. Accordingly, the main landscape type changed from a steppe landscape to a managed agricultural ecosystem. (2) Results of correlation analysis show that the land use change in the study area was mainly driven by the socioeconomic factors.　(3) The ecological effects of land use change in the area are characterized by serious salinization, degression of soil fertility and the weakening of landscape suitability.     

Land use change and its ecological effect in Qian＇an County of Jilin Province

Based on GIS and statistical methods, with the help of searching historical literatures and calculating the landscape indices, the land use changes of Qian‘an County in both spatial and temporal aspects from 1945 to 1996 has been analyzed in this paper. And the driving forces of land use changes and their ecological effects are discussed too. The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) Land use changed greatly in Qian‘an during 1945-1996, characterized by a decrease in grassland, wetland and water bodies, and an increase in cultivated land, saline-alkali land, and the land for housing and other construction purposes. Grassland decreased by 175,828.66 ha, and cultivated land increased by 102,137.23 ha over the half century. Accordingly, the main landscape type changed from a steppe landscape to a managed agricultural ecosystem. (2) Results of correlation analysis show that the land use change in the study area was mainly driven by the socioeconomic factors. (3) The ecological effects of land use change in the area are characterized by serious salinization, degression of soil fertility and the weakening, of landscaoe suitability.     

Landscape pattern dynamics of water body in Kaifeng city in the 20th century

Landscape spatial pattern mainly refers to the distribution of patches, which are different in size and shape in space owing to the interaction of various ecological activities. In landscape ecology study, landscape pattern has been one of the key study areas. Water body landscape plays an important role in the development history of a city, but at present city water body landscape in many cities has been destroyed, hence protecting water body in the city is becoming more and more important. In order to protect city water body landscape reasonably, the precondition is to probe the dynamics of water body landscape. Based on historical data and remote sensing data, six indexes including patch number, patch area, landscape dominance index, fractal dimension, patch density and connectivity index etc. were used to analyze landscape pattern dynamics of water body in Kaifeng city since the end of the Qing Dynasty (in the 20th century). The results showed: (1) Since the end of the Qing Dynasty, landscape area of water body in Kaifeng city increased first and then decreased from 1898 to 2002AD; the landscape dominant degree had the same changing tendency with the area. (2) Patch number of water body landscape in Kaifeng city had an increase from 1898 to 2002, but maximum area of patch, minimum area of patch and average area of patch decreased, which resulted in an increase in landscape fragment degree. (3) Connectivity index decreased and fractal dimension increased from 1898 to 2002. The reasons for these changes were the repeated overflows and flooding of the Yellow River and the influence of human activities.     

环京津贫困带土地利用变化多情景模拟与景观格局动态变化——以河北省张家口市为例（英文）

Land use/cover change has been recognized as a key component in global change and has attracted increasing attention in recent decades. Scenario simulation of land use change is an important issue in the study of land use/cover change, and plays a key role in land use prediction and policy decision. Based on the remote sensing data of Landsat TM images in 1989, 2000 and 2010, scenario simulation and landscape pattern analysis of land use change driven by socio-economic development and ecological protection policies were reported in Zhangjiakou city, a representative area of the Poverty Belt around Beijing and Tianjin. Using a CLUE-S model, along with socio-economic and geographic data, the land use simulation of four scenarios–namely, land use planning scenario, natural development scenario, ecological-oriented scenario and farmland protection scenario–were explored according to the actual conditions of Zhangjiakou city, and the landscape pattern characteristics under different land use scenarios were analyzed. The results revealed the following:(1) Farmland, grassland, water body and unused land decreased significantly during 1989–2010, with a decrease of 11.09%, 2.82%, 18.20% and 31.27%, respectively, while garden land, forestland and construction land increased over the same period, with an increase of 5.71%, 20.91% and 38.54%, respectively. The change rate and intensity of land use improved in general from 1989 to 2010. The integrated dynamic degree of land use increased from 2.21% during 1989–2000 to 3.96% during 2000–2010.(2) Land use changed significantly throughout 1989–2010. The total area that underwent land use change was 4759.14 km2, accounting for 12.53% of the study area. Land use transformation was characterized by grassland to forestland, and by farmland to forestland and grassland.(3) Under the land use planning scenario, farmland, grassland, water body and unused land shrank significantly, while garden land, forestland and construction land increased. Under the natural development scenario, construction land and forestland increased in 2020 compared with 2010, while farmland and unused land decreased. Under the ecological-oriented scenario, forestland increased dra-matically, which mainly derived from farmland, grassland and unused land. Under the farmland protection scenario, farmland was well protected and stable, while construction land expansion was restricted.(4) The landscape patterns of the four scenarios in 2020, compared with those in 2010, were more reasonable. Under the land use planning scenario, the landscape pattern tended to be more optimized. The landscape became less fragmented and heterogeneous with the natural development scenarios. However, under the ecological-oriented scenario and farmland protection scenario, landscape was characterized by fragmentation, and spatial heterogeneity of landscape was significant. Spatial differences in landscape patterns in Zhangjiakou city also existed.(5) The spatial distribution of land use could be explained, to a large extent, by the driving factors, and the simulation results tallied with the local situations, which provided useful information for decision-makers and planners to take appropriate land management measures in the area. The application of the combined Markov model, CLUE-S model and landscape metrics in Zhangjiakou city suggests that this methodology has the capacity to reflect the complex changes in land use at a scale of 300 m×300 m and can serve as a useful tool for analyzing complex land use driving factors.     

Spatial characteristics and driving forces of the morphological evolution of East Lake,Wuhan

The shapes of the urban lakes in Wuhan city have been strongly influenced by the rapid industrialization and urbanization experienced in recent decades.Based on topographic maps and remote sensing images,the temporal and spatial changes of East Lake,Wuhan city,over the past two decades were analyzed.The landscape shape index(LSI)and centroid method were applied to analyze the evolution of lake morphology and its causes.Several key results were obtained.(1)The surface area of East Lake decreased sharply by 2.13 km2 from 1995 to 2005,and slightly by 1.00 km2 from 2005 to 2015.The shoreline length of East Lake displayed a continuous trend of decline during the study period:The length reduced by 21.89 km from 1995 to 2005,and by 0.67 km from 2005 to 2015.The LSI values,7.04(1995),6.46(2005),and 6.28(2015),displayed an accelerated downward trend,indicating a reduction of complexity in East Lake and the intensification of manual interventions in the water body.(2)The changes to East Lake displayed a clear temporal and spatial heterogeneity.The centroid of East Lake moved northeast from 1995 to 2005 and southeast from 2005 to 2015.(3)The reduction in the area of East Lake was mainly affected by human activities.A lake area of about 4.8 km2 was converted to other land uses during 1995-2005,most of which was unused land,whereas from 2005 to 2015,0.43 km2 of the lake area was converted into built-up land,and 0.25 km2 was converted into other land uses.The reduction in area was caused by infrastructure construction by the government,the development of the real estate industry,illegal construction by villagers,and the development of scenic spots for tourism.The driving forces of this reduction included Wuhan's growing population,and the rapid development of the economy and urbanization between 1995 and 2015,which has resulted in a large demand for land.Finally,a formation mechanism model was constructed by analyzing the causes of East Lake's morphological evolution.     

Effect of farmland expansion on drought over the past century in Songnen Plain,Northeast China

The effects of human activities on climate change are a significant area of research in the field of global environmental change. Land use and land cover change(LUCC) has a greater effect on climate than greenhouse gases, and the effect of farmland expansion on regional drought is particularly important. From the 1910 s to the 2010 s, cultivated land in Songnen Plain increased by 2.67 times, the area of cultivated land increased from 4.92×10~4 km~2 to 13.14×10~4 km~2, and its percentage of all land increased from 25% to 70%. This provides an opportunity to study the effects of the conversion of natural grassland to farmland on climate. In this study, the drought indices in Songnen Plain were evaluated from the 1910 s to the 2010 s, and the effect of farmland expansion on drought was investigated using statistical methods and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model based on UK's Climatic Research Unit data. The resulting dryness index, Palmer drought severity index, and standardized precipitation index values indicated a significant drying trend in the study area from 1981 to 2010. This trend can be attributed to increases in maximum temperature and diurnal temperature range, which increased the degree of drought. Based on statistical analysis and simulation, the maximum temperature, diurnal temperature range, and sensible heat flux increased during the growing season in Songnen Plain over the past 100 years, while the minimum temperature and latent heat flux decreased. The findings indicate that farmland expansion caused a drying trend in Songnen Plain during the study period.     

1984-2008年北京湿地景观格局驱动机制(英文)

The landscape pattern of Beijing wetlands has undergone a significant change as a result of natural and artificial elements.Supported by remote sensing and GIS technology,using multi-temporal TM images from 1984 to 2008 in Beijing,this paper analyzed the dynamic characteristics of wetlands landscape pattern through selected typical indices including patch area,patch average area,fractal dimension index,diversity,dominance,contagion indices and the spatial centroids of each wetlands type were calculated.Finally,the paper explored the evolution mode and driving factors of wetland landscape pattern.The results were obtained as follows:the total wetland area increased during the period 1984-1996,then decline from 1996 to 2004.The wetland area in 1994 accounted for only 47.37% of that in 2004.The proportion of artificial wetland area was larger than that of natural wetland.The proportion of reservoir wetland was 33.50% to 53.73% and had the maximum average area.pond and paddy field wetland type with the least average area accounted for 16.46% to 45.09% of the total wetland area.The driving forces of the natural river wetland were mainly natural elements;its fractal dimension index was greater than the others.The Shannon diversity index of wetland landscape increased from 1.11 in 1992 to 1.34 in 2004,indicating that the difference between proportions of each wetland type decreased and areas of each wetland type were evenly distributed.The contagion index went down from 65.59 to 58.41,indicating that the connectivity degraded.Miyun Reservoir had the largest area and its area change had a great impact on the location of the centroid.Wetland resources degenerated gradually from the joint effects of natural and artificial factors.During the period 2006-2008,the precipitation increased and the drought condition was relieved.The government implemented series of positive policies to save water resources,and the wetland area increased.     

Agricultural Climate Change and Wetland Agriculture Study under the Climate Change in the Sanjiang Plain

With linear curvefitting, Mann-kendall method and Yamamoto method, ≥10 ℃accumulated temperature and precipitation from May to September of 6 meteorological stations (Baoqing, fujin, Jiamusi, Hegang, Jixi and Hulin) from 1978 to 2007 were used to explore 30-year agricultural climate change and trend in the Sanjiang Plain. The results showed that ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature of the 6 stations have risen by 141.0 ℃ to 287.4 ℃ when estimated by their significant linear trends (n=30, α=0.05) over the last 30 years (1978 to 2007). The rates of warming for the last 30 years range from 4.70 ℃per year to 9.58 ℃ per year. There are not significant linear trends on precipitation from May to September of the 6 stations over the last 30 years. The period of 1978 to 1998 in which ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature is lower is consistent with that in which there is more precipitation from May to September, and warming and drying period has occurred in the Sanjiang Plain since 1999. Under the background of warming and drying agricultural climate, high yield cultivation of Phragmites australis and establishment of Phragmites australis-fish (crab) symbiosis ecosystem in natural mire are the ways for reasonable use of natural wetland. The area of paddy fields has been increasing from 7.25×104 ha in 1978 to 121.2×104 ha in 2006. It is proposed that paddy field range should not be expanded blindly toward the north in the Sanjiang Plain, and chilling injury forecast and prevention should be pay attention to. In the area that the chilling injury happens frequently, the rotation between rice and other crops should be implemented. Measures, which combine drainage, store and irrigation, should be taken instead of single drainage on comprehensive control of regional low and wet croplands to ensure controlling drought and flood.     

乾安县土地利用变化及其生态效应

Based on GIS and statistical methods, with the help of searching historical literatures andcalculating the landscape indices, the land use changes of Qian'an County in both spatial and temporalaspects from 1945 to 1996 has been analyzed in this paper. And the driving forces of land use changesand their ecological effects are discussed too. The main findings of this study are as follows:(1)Landuse changed greatly in Qian'an during 1945-1996, characterized by a decrease in grassland, wetlandand water bodies,and an increase in cultivated land, saline-alkali land, and the land for housing andother construction purposes. Grassland decreased by 175,828.66 ha, and cultivated land increased by     

Characterization of landscape pattern based on land economic niche change: A case study in Ganzhou,Gansu Province,China

Land use change has a profound impact on biodiversity and ecological processes, and is closely related to changes in landscape patterns. This paper introduces the theory and method of land economic niche into landscape ecology, which provides a new method for spatial characterization of urban and rural spatial landscape patterns. Based on this theory, this paper analyzes the landscape pattern of Ganzhou District by using Landsat images as data source in 1995, 2000, 2005,2010 and 2015. We calculated the land economic niche by applying the niche potential theory. Combined with the theory of landscape ecology, we explored the effects of the land economic niche change on the landscape pattern at a county scale.The results show that economic niche of construction land, watershed and farmland increased during 1995–2015, and grassland declined significantly. The economic niche of farmland, construction land, watershed and grassland show a negative correlation with the number of patches(NP), fragmentation index(FN) and the fractal dimension index(FD), and had a positive correlation with the aggregation index(AI). There was no significant correlation between the forest land economic niche and landscape metrics. The change of land economic niche has a driving effect on the landscape pattern of the county, which can represent the economic development direction of Ganzhou District. The land economic niche is closely related to the landscape type which can directly obtain an economic benefit.     

VECTOR ANALYSIS THEORY ON LANDSCAPE PATTERN （VATLP） IN SANJIANG PLAIN MARSH, CHINA

Landscape indices are popular for the quantification of landscape pattern. But all landscape indices being used so far are scalar quantity, which measure patterns without considering sufficiently the pattern size and the directionality together. Based on planar characteristics defined in mechanics such as centroid, moment of inertia, product of inertia, principal axes and so on, vector analysis theory on landscape pattern (VATLP) is explored here. Firstly we establish a coordinate system of centroidal principal axes (CSCPA) of a patch or patches. Some related new indices including those describing the direction of pattern distribution (patch orientation (PO), vectorial patch orientation (VPO)), and those indicating the shape of patch‘s equivalent ellipse (major axis (MJA), minor axis (M1A) and eccentric rate (ER)) are deduced. These landscape metrics are then applied to the pattern analysis of Sanjiang plain marsh, the study area. Two temporal vector-based data sets of the study area come from interpretation of remote sensing images M SS (1980) and T M (2000). The application of the theory captures some shape properties of riparian wetland in Sanjiang plain marsh. The dissymmetrieal featires of Sanjiang plain marsh around principal axes due to agricultural development could also be explained.     

贵州猫跳河流域土地利用变化和土壤侵蚀(英文)

Due to the extremely poor soil cover, a low soil-forming rate, and inappropriate intensive land use, soil erosion is a serious problem in Guizhou Province, which is located in the centre of the karst areas of Southwest China. In order to bring soil erosion under control and restore environment, the Chinese Government has initiated a serious of ecological rehabilitation projects such as the Grain-for-Green Programme and Natural Forest Protection Program and brought about tremendous influences on land-use change and soil erosion in Guizhou Province. This paper explored the relationship between land use and soil erosion in the Maotiao River watershed, a typical agricultural area with severe soil erosion in central Guizhou Province. In this study, we analyzed the spatio-temporal dynamic change of land-use type in Maotiao River watershed from 1973 to 2007 using Landsat MSS image in 1973, Landsat TM data in 1990 and 2007. Soil erosion change characteristics from 1973 to 2007, and soil loss among different land-use types were examined by integrating the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) with a GIS environment. The results indicate that changes in land use within the watershed have significantly affected soil erosion. From 1973 to 1990, dry farmland and rocky desertified land significantly increased. In contrast, shrubby land, other forestland and grassland significantly decreased, which caused accelerated soil erosion in the study area. This trend was reversed from 1990 to 2007 with an increased area of land-use types for ecological use owing to the implementation of environmental protection programs. Soil erosion also significantly varied among land-use types. Erosion was most serious in dry farmland and the lightest in paddy field. Dry farmland with a gradient of 6°-25° was the major contributor to soil erosion, and conservation practices should be taken in these areas. The results of this study provide useful information for decision makers and planners to take sustainable land use management and soil conservation measures in the area.     

“一带一路”沿线区域耕地格局变化（英文）

The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)–a development strategy proposed by China – provides unprecedented opportunities for multi-dimensional communication and cooperation across Asia,Africa and Europe.In this study,we analyse the spatio-temporal changes in cultivated land in the BRI countries(64 in total) to better understand the land use status of China along with its periphery for targeting specific collaboration.We apply FAO statistics and Globe Land30(the world's finest land cover data at a 30-m resolution),and develop three indicator groups(namely quantity,conversion,and utilization degree) for the analysis.The results show that cultivated land area in the BRI region increased 3.73×10~4 km~2 between 2000 and 2010.The increased cultivated land was mainly found in Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia,while the decreased cultivated land was mostly concentrated in China.Russia ranks first with an increase of 1.59×10~4 km~2 cultivated land area,followed by Hungary(0.66×10~4 km~2) and India(0.57×10~4 km`2).China decreased 1.95×10~4 km~2 cultivated land area,followed by Bangladesh(–0.22×10~4 km~2) and Thailand(–0.22×10~4 km~2).Cultivated land was mainly transferred to/from forest,grassland,artificial surfaces and bare land,and transfer types in different regions have different characteristics:while large amount of cultivated land in China was converted to artificial surfaces,considerable forest was converted to cultivated land in Southeast Asia.The increase of multi-cropping index dominated the region except the Central and Eastern Europe,while the increase of fragmentation index was prevailing in the region except for a few South Asian countries.Our results indicate that the negative consequence of cultivated land loss in China might be underestimated by the domestic-focused studies,as none of its close neighbours experienced such obvious cultivated land losses.Nevertheless,the increased cultivated land area in Southeast Asia and the extensive cultivated land use in Ukraine and Russia imply that the regional food production would be greatly improved if China' "Go Out policy" would help those countries to intensify their cultivated land use.     

中国2010-2015年土地利用变化的时空格局与新特征（英文）

Land use/cover change is an important theme on the impacts of human activities on the earth systems and global environmental change. National land-use changes of China during 2010–2015 were acquired by the digital interpretation method using the high-resolution remotely sensed images, e.g. the Landsat 8 OLI, GF-2 remote sensing images. The spatiotemporal characteristics of land-use changes across China during 2010–2015 were revealed by the indexes of dynamic degree model, annual land-use changes ratio etc. The results indicated that the built-up land increased by 24.6×10~3 km~2 while the cropland decreased by 4.9×10~3 km~2, and the total area of woodland and grassland decreased by 16.4×10~3 km~2. The spatial pattern of land-use changes in China during 2010–2015 was concordant with that of the period 2000–2010. Specially, new characteristics of land-use changes emerged in different regions of China in 2010–2015. The built-up land in eastern China expanded continually, and the total area of cropland decreased, both at decreasing rates. The rates of built-up land expansion and cropland shrinkage were accelerated in central China. The rates of built-up land expansion and cropland growth increased in western China, while the decreasing rate of woodland and grassland accelerated. In northeastern China, built-up land expansion slowed continually, and cropland area increased slightly accompanied by the conversions between paddy land and dry land. Besides, woodland and grassland area decreased in northeastern China. The characteristics of land-use changes in eastern China were essentially consistent with the spatial govern and control requirements of the optimal development zones and key development zones according to the Major Function-oriented Zones Planning implemented during the 12 th Five-Year Plan(2011–2015). It was a serious challenge for the central government of China to effectively protect the reasonable layout of land use types dominated with the key ecological function zones and agricultural production zones in centraland western China. Furthermore, the local governments should take effective measures to strengthen the management of territorial development in future.     

Land cover changes in the rural-urban interaction of Xi＇an region using Landsat TM/ETM data

Landsat ETM/TM data and an artificial neural network （ANN） were applied to analyse the expansion of the city of Xi＇an and land use/cover change of its surrounding area between 2000 and 2003. Supervised classification and normalized difference barren index （NDBI） were used respectively to retrieve its urban boundary. Results showed that the urban area increased by an annual rate of 12.3%, with area expansion from 253.37 km^2 in 2000 to 358.60 km^2 in 2003. Large areas of farmland in the north and southwest were converted into urban construction land. The land use/cover changes of Xi＇an were mainly caused by fast development of urban economy, population immigration from countryside, great development of infrastructure such as transportation, and huge demands for urban market. In addition, affected by the government policy of “returning farmland to woodland”, some farmland was converted into economic woodland, such as Chinese goosebeerv garden, vineyard etc.     

河南沿黄湿地景观格局及其动态

By using GIS and remote sensing techniques, the paper discusses how human activities have changed along the Yellow River in Henan province, China and how these altered activities have influenced the wetland landscape pattern change from 1987 to 2002. Results show that the total area of the wetland reduces dramatically compared to 1987, the total area of wetland reduces by 19.18%, the number of the patches in 2002 increases by 21.17%, the density increases by 50%, and the total perimeter increases by 1,290,491 m. Disturbed by human activities, landscape diversity index decreases from 1.1740 in 1987 to 0.9803 in 2002. During the last 20 years, the total area of the rice wetland increases, while the others decrease. Among those, the area of the bulrush wetland decreases most. In 1987, it takes 0.5% of the total area, but in 2002, it only takes 0.11%. The interpenetration of human influences on the wetland natural system has been long and close. The impacts of human activities on the spatial pattern of the wetland landscape along the Yellow River in Henan from 1987 to 2002 are great.     

利用GIS和Dyna-CLUE模拟泰国东北部粮食作物保护区土地利用变化（英文）

Land use in the northeast region of Thailand has changed dramatically in the past two decades. These changes are mainly due to the government policies, which launched a scheme to promote rubber plantation during 2003–2013 targeting to solve the problem of poverty in the region. At least 50,000 ha of paddy fields were found to be converted to other land use types between 2002 and 2012. This study was conducted in Nong Khai and Bueng Kan province of northeast Thailand, where massive rubber plantation is going on prompting significant amount of land-use change, with the objective of investigating how land-use changes will affect on food availability in future. We analyzed land-use changes of the past and simulated future land uses using GIS and Landsat Thematic Mapper Data. The most obvious change was the decrease in paddy field and an increase in rubber plantation. This eventually leads to decreased paddy production affecting food supply of farm households. The land use projections for 2032 were done for three scenarios using Dyna-CLUE model. Unlike business as usual scenario, which will further decrease the paddy area, other scenarios with different land use policies if implemented will help protect paddy areas and thus achieving higher food production locally. The lack of implementation of proper spatial policies will lead to a further loss of paddy areas at macro level.The smallholder farmers may be highly vulnerable to land use-change and experience significant food crop losses, food insecurity and income loss when they change the land to rubber and there is market failure.     

1989-2003年中国北方土地覆被变化

The 13 provinces （autonomous regions and municipalities） in northern China are located in latitude 31°-54°N and longitude 73°-136°E including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, and Xinjiang, where environments are fragile. In recent years, the eco-environmental problems such as vegetation destruction, desertification and soil erosion etc. become serious because of climate change and unreasonable human activities. In this paper, landscape pattern and its evolution in northern China from 1989 to 2003 was investigated by the combined use of RS and GIS based on the basic theory and method of landscape ecology. Land use/cover maps of the study area in 1989, 1999 and 2003 were produced by using 1 km monthly NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer （AVHRR） and SPOTNGT Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） dataset from national climate bureau of China which were geo-registered to Lambert azimuthal equal-area map projection and were used in the paper. Landscape evolution in the area over the study period was investigated by two methods： （a） the changes of various landscape metrics were analyzed using the landscape structure analysis program FRAGSTATS; （b） the transition matrix of landscape patch types was calculated with the help of the RS and GIS software. The results showed that from 1989 to 2003, the landscape within the study area had undertaken a complicated evolution in landscape structure and composition. The diversity index and evenness index increased during the period, which means that the landscape pattern tended to be diversified and even. The fragmentation index of grassland, forestland and water areas also increased significantly. This showed that the distribution and structure of forestland, grassland and water areas had been changed greatly during the period, especially grassland which became more and more fragmentized, and its fragmentation index increased from 19.23% to 88.72%. The transi