防波堤的人工神经网络Monte Carlo法可靠性分析

防波堤建设费用巨大,且一旦遭到破坏,后果甚为严重,因此,如何准确地计算防波堤的可靠性意义重大.随着人工神经网络理论的快速发展,人工神经网络方法在结构可靠性分析中的应用逐渐得到重视.基于神经网络的Monte Carlo法计算直立式防波堤的可靠性,概率意义明确.以秦皇岛典型直立堤为算例,采用基于神经网络的Monte Carlo法对直立式防波堤进行可靠性分析时,将直立堤滑动破坏和倾覆破坏的极限状态方程中的所有参数均作为变量处理,并将计算结果与Monte Carlo模拟的直接抽样法、重要抽样法以及独立变量JC法的计算结果进行对比.结果表明:基于神经网络的Monte Carlo法和Monte Carlo模拟的直接抽样法、重要抽样法计算结果相近,而比独立变量JC法的计算结果略低.     

Beach memory and ensemble prediction of shoreline evolution near a groyne

In this paper we address the question of estimating the average position of a beach and its inherent variability about this mean. It is demonstrated how, even in a much simplified situation, the ensemble average of beach plan shape involves cross-correlation of the beach position and wave conditions. This renders the governing equations inimical to analytical treatment. A new analytical expression for the mean beach plan shape and its variation are derived for the case of a single groyne exposed to waves varying in direction only. This demonstrates that ‘beach memory’ is directly related to the autocorrelation of wave direction. For more general conditions a semi-analytical expression for the ensemble average of the shoreline position is derived. This solution is estimated with site specific wave conditions using Monte Carlo simulations. The characteristics of the solution are investigated and it is demonstrated that, for this case at least, the terms involving the wave direction are virtually uncorrelated with the terms that do not. It is concluded that, in an ensemble sense, the morphodynamic impact of wave direction is decoupled from that due to wave height and period.     

Extreme response prediction for nonlinear floating offshore structures by Monte Carlo simulation

The paper describes a method for the prediction of extreme response statistics of floating offshore structures subjected to random seas by Monte Carlo simulation. The particular case of the horizontal surge motions of a tension leg platform is considered, taking into account both the first order, wave frequency and the second order, slow-drift motions. The advantage of the Monte Carlo method is its simplicity and versatility, which allows us to account for the effect of time-variant wave-drift damping, as well as nonlinear mooring characteristics without noticeable increase in the computational complexity. It is demonstrated in this paper that the commonly assumed obstacle against using the Monte Carlo method for estimating extreme responses, i.e. excessive CPU time, can be circumvented, bringing the computation time down to quite acceptable levels.     

AUV定位信号检测延时的蒙特卡洛模拟分析

在简要介绍AUV声学定位声纳接收机原理基础上,分析了CW脉冲信号在极性相关检测电路中的传输过程,建立了极性相关积分检测延时仿真分析模型。提出采用蒙特卡洛模拟方法获取检测延时的分布特征和统计参数的观点。实验结果表明蒙特卡洛模拟实验与硬件电路实验结果一致,对于解决随机性检测延时问题具有很强的能力。获得的结果可为AUV定位声纳检测门限的设定、声学测距和定位精度分析以及水声通信延时分析提供参考。     

Effect of scouring in sand on monopile-supported offshore wind turbines

This paper analyzes the influence of scour on the overall response of monopile-supported offshore wind turbines (OWTs) in 20-m water depth. Scouring effects on OWTs have been often studied within the geotechnical domain, considering static loads at the mudline. The present work attempts to address the scour-induced problems in OWTs by making use of an integrated aerodynamic–hydrodynamic load approach in sandy soils. The OWT analysis is simulated for operational and shut-down (parked) condition. Under parked situations, the OWT blades are feathered, and power production is suspended, owing to structural safety concerns. The 50 Monte Carlo responses of stochastic sea-state condition (wind speed with turbulence, significant wave height, and peak spectral period) are generated. Irregular, long-crested waves are generated using the Joint North Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP) spectrum. Then from each simulation, the ensemble response is obtained. Sandy soils of varying densities are considered. Results indicate that OWTs founded on loose sands suffer significant stiffness (and hence natural frequency) reductions, shifting the structure into the resonance regime. Lateral responses also show an escalation with reduction in density of sandy soil.     

Operability analysis of marine projects based on Markov theory

The operability of marine operations, that is, the estimation of their weather downtime and duration, is traditionally determined either by means of risk analysis or Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The work presented herein establishes analytically the probability distribution and statistical parameters of the duration of individual activities of a marine project based on the theory of Markov chains. According to the proposed Markov model the distribution of the duration of an activity is associated with certain statistical properties of the return time, that is the period between two successive passages from the non-operable state. Information about individual activities is then combined according to the PNET methodology, as proposed by Ang, A. H. S., Abdelnour, J. & Chaker, A. A., Analysis of activity networks under uncertainty. J. Engng Mech. Div., ASCE, 101 (EM4) (1975) 373–387 which considers the sequence of the execution of the activities, as defined by the operations scenario of the project, in order to establish analytically the probability distribution of the duration of the project.

The statistical analysis distinguishes between activities which do not require a weather window for their execution and those which do. Policies which affect the execution of an activity are incorporated into the analysis by taking into consideration secondary tasks which are performed before or after its temporary suspension. Furthermore, performance efficiency factors are also introduced in order to reflect the influence of the prevailing sea state/vessel responses on the ability of the crew to carry out the activity.

The Markov model is applied for a range of uninterrupted durations to activities which do or do not require a weather window and the results are compared with those from a Monte Carlo simulation. Good agreement is obtained for the mean durations but significant deviation is evident for the second order moments. This behaviour is attributed to the length of the record and also to the distribution of the return times. Agreement between the results of the two models is generally better for activities of low uninterrupted duration which do not require a weather window.

Finally, the combined Markov/PNET methodology is illustrated with an example for a hypothetical project and results are compared with those from a Monte Carlo simulation. Similar conclusions to those mentioned above are drawn.     

Run-up of solitary waves on slopes with different profiles

The problem of sea-wave run-up on a beach is discussed within the framework of exact solutions of a nonlinear theory of shallow water. Previously, the run-up of solitary waves with different forms (Gaussian and Lorentzian pulses, a soliton, special-form pulses) has already been considered in the literature within the framework of the same theory. Depending on the form of the incident wave, different formulas were obtained for the height of wave run-up on a beach. A new point of this study is the proof of the universality of the formula for the maximum height of run-up of a solitary wave on a beach for the corresponding physical choice of the determining parameters of the incident wave, so that the effect of difference in form is eliminated. As a result, an analytical formula suitable for applications, in particular, in problems related to tsunamis, has been proposed for the height of run-up of a solitary wave on a beach.     

Input reduction for long-term morphodynamic simulations in wave-dominated coastal settings

Input reduction is imperative to long-term (> years) morphodynamic simulations to avoid excessive computation times. Here, we introduce an input-reduction framework for wave-dominated coastal settings. Our framework comprises 4 steps, viz. (1) the selection of the duration of the original (full) time series of wave forcing, (2) the selection of the representative wave conditions, (3) the sequencing of these conditions, and (4) the time span after which the sequence is repeated. In step (2), the chronology of the original series is retained, while that is no longer the case in steps (3) and (4). We apply the framework to two different sites (Noordwijk, Netherlands and Hasaki, Japan) with multiple nearshore sandbars but contrasting long-term offshore-directed behavior: at Noordwijk the offshore migration is gradual and not coupled to individual storms, while at Hasaki the offshore migration is more episodic, and wave chronology appears to control long-term evolution. The performance of the model with reduced wave climates is referenced to a simulation with the actual (full) wave-forcing series. We demonstrate that input reduction can dramatically affect long-term predictions, even to such an extent that the main characteristics of the offshore bar cycle are no longer reproduced. This was particularly the case at Hasaki, where all synthetic series that no longer capture the initial chronology (steps 3 and 4) lead to rather unrealistic long-term simulations. At Noordwijk, synthetic series can result in realistic behavior, provided that the time span after which the sequence is repeated is not too large; the reduction of this time span has the same positive effect on the simulation as increasing the number of selected conditions in step 2. We further demonstrate that, although storms result in the largest morphological change, conditions with low to intermediate wave energy must be retained to obtain realistic long-term sandbar behavior. Our input-reduction framework must be applied in an iterative fashion as to obtain a reduced wave climate that simulates long-term sandbar sufficiently accurately within an acceptable computation time. Given its potentially huge impact on the actual simulation, we believe it is imperative to consider input reduction as an intrinsic part of model set-up, calibration and validation.     

Reliability analysis of a rubble mound breakwater using the theory of fuzzy random variables

This study investigates the possibility of applying the theory of fuzzy random variables through the fuzzy Monte Carlo simulation approach for the reliability-based risk analysis of a rubble-mound breakwater. The results are presented and compared with the traditional Monte Carlo calculation. This study indicates that the present theory may provide a useful tool for the joint handling of randomness and fuzziness in the computation of reliability and may have a good potential to be used for reliability assessment of coastal structures.     

Photoadaptation in a convective layer

Measurements of Lagrangian trajectories acquired with neutrally buoyant floats in an upper ocean mixing layer during a five-day period of nearly cloudless and calm conditions, provide an opportunity for investigating the implications of photo-adaptation of phytoplankton exposed to varying light intensities as they traverse the water column in convective plumes. The predominant convective motions develop over night and persist through the morning until giving way to thermal restratification. Despite the paucity of observed trajectories, their essential characteristics are extracted and used to generate a large number of pseudo-tracks having characteristics similar to those measured at any given depth and time of day. A Monte Carlo simulation is run for a sample set of biological variables to identify predominant features of the production. For each pseudo-trajectory the production is calculated from a photo-adaptive model in order to identify primary features of the instantaneous and accumulated production. The simulation illustrates the way in which photo-inhibition can reduce production near the surface during the morning, developing a subsurface layer of increased production that progressively deepens to approximately 12 m at noon. The surface production is suppressed during the afternoon, but subsequently recovers as light levels drop below the photo-inhibition threshold.     

The management of Pevensey shingle barrier

The shingle (gravel) barrier beach at Pevensey Bay (East Sussex, UK) protects rare habitat, properties, trunk roads and other assets from flooding and erosion. The beach is managed in an adaptive manner by a private consortium, based on a 25 year contract. The practices developed at Pevensey are shown to fit into the frame of reference approach, adapted for the English policy and management framework. The barrier beach is managed to retain a favourable sediment status, although the concept has no official recognition, thereby ensuring that the barrier is sufficiently resilient to maintain its functions between interventions. The concept of favourable sediment status is considered a potentially useful way of summarising the status of the beach at Pevensey as it combines management objectives and processes (through coastal state indicators) with the availability of supply. The concept of the coastal sediment cell is important, but not sufficient, for identifying policy units at Pevensey as smaller-scale processes are also important. Two offshore dredging areas constitute the strategic sediment reservoir for Pevensey, although the term ‘strategic sediment reservoir’ has no official recognition and there is no long-term guarantee of supply.     

Hydrodynamics of a headland-bay beach—Nearshore current circulation

This paper is devoted to the analysis of the hydrodynamic equilibrium of a headland or semi-elliptic shaped beach. It is shown that the state of equilibrium depends not only on the in- and outgoing sediment but also on the accommodation of the sediment within the embayment. The shape and relative depth of shoals, or settling zones, also directly affect the wave and current patterns inside the bay, within which the resultant breaker line almost stops wave-induced currents at some locations, whereas the magnitude of current increases at other locations. Several numerical tests are analytically conducted in a semi-elliptic beach with two symmetrical shoals of varying relative depth where circulatory current systems are detected and analyzed. Numerical modelling for wave climate and wave-induced current estimation is also presented in order to corroborate results and provide a tool for complicated and/or physical domains. The results lead to a redefinition of the concept of equilibrium for headland-bay beaches taking into account not only the net sediment transport but also the role of the formation and disappearance of settling zones, as well as sediment interchanges between the beach and shoals.     

Application of Importance Sampling Method in Sliding Failure Simulation of Caisson Breakwaters

It is assumed that the storm wave takes place once a year during the design period, and N histories of storm waves are generated on the basis of wave spectrum corresponding to the N-year design period. The responses of the breakwater to the N histories of storm waves in the N-year design period are calculated by mass-spring-dashpot mode and taken as a set of samples. The failure probability of caisson breakwaters during the design period of N years is obtained by the statistical analysis of many sets of samples. It is the key issue to improve the efficiency of the common Monte Carlo simulation method in the failure probability estimation of caisson breakwaters in the complete life cycle. In this paper, the kernel method of importance sampling, which can greatly increase the efficiency of failure probability calculation of caisson breakwaters, is proposed to estimate the failure probability of caisson breakwaters in the complete life cycle. The effectiveness of the kernel method is investigated by an example. It is indicated that the calculation efficiency of the kernel method is over 10 times the common Monte Carlo simulation method.     

Sedimentology and morphodynamics of a macrotidal beach, Pendine Sands, SW Wales

The foreshore of Pendine Sands forms the seaward part of an extensive, sandy coastal barrier in a shallow Carmarthen Bay, SW Wales. The sedimentological features of the macrotidal foreshore reflect a tide-induced modification of nearshore wave characteristics. As the tide ebbs, the breaker height may decrease, the surf zone widens and becomes increasingly dissipative, and swash/backwash velocities diminish. A concomitant change from plunging to spilling breakers and increasingly symmetrical swash zone flows are associated with a decreasing beach gradient.

A zero net transport model demonstrates that the beach profile is self-stabilising in the short-term, and periodic levelling has shown that the beach is in long-term equilibrium with prevailing conditions, though this does not preclude a significant dynamic response to changing tides and waves.

The flow regimes of wave-generated currents decline as the tide ebbs, and normal beach processes do not usually affect the lower foreshore. Accordingly, there is an overall seaward-fining of the primary framework component of the sands. In more detail, this framework component displays a slight seaward-coarsening across an upper foreshore dominated by high water swash and surf; a rapid seaward-fining across the mid-foreshore in response to the ebb-attenuating swash zone flow velocities; and a slight seaward-fining across the lower foreshore under the action of nearshore shoaling waves. Bedforms vary from a swash/backwash emplaced flat bed across the upper foreshore to the small ripples of nearshore asymmetric oscillatory flows across the lower foreshore.

The surface sediment veneer is not representative of the subsurface sediments which form in response partly to fairweather conditions, partly to storms. The upper foreshore is characterised by swash/backwash emplaced plane bedding in fine sands frequently disrupted by bubble cavities. The mid-foreshore is composed of coarser-grained shelly traction clogs arranged as landward- and seaward-dipping large-scale cross bedding and/or plane bedding; these are probably storm breaker/surf deposits. The lower foreshore, though partially and sometimes totally bioturbated, shows landward-dipping small-scale cross bedding in very fine sands sorted by nearshore shoaling waves.

Tide- and storm-induced modification of the nearshore flow regimes therefore produces a distinctive shore-normal array of sedimentary facies. Each facies is characterised by diagnostic textural and structural signatures. A prograding sequence of such macrotidal deposits would be similar to, but more extensive than, a comparable microtidal sequence.     

Measuring species richness on sandy beach transects: extrapolative estimators and their implications for sampling effort

Species richness is a measure that is fundamental to many studies in ecology, and it is particularly important on sandy beaches, where it underlies patterns described by the broadly accepted swash exclusion hypothesis. However, its estimation in practice is problematic. This has led ecologists in other fields to adopt extrapolative estimators of species richness, which project the total number of species present in a habitat by adjusting upward the number of species observed by an amount related to the number of rare species encountered in the samples. In so doing, the species richness can be estimated, with confidence intervals, at any level of sampling effort. Despite the availability and advantages of these methods, beach ecologists have continued to use the observed species richness as a point estimate of biodiversity for beaches. Here, we employ a Monte Carlo resampling approach over a range of routine transect designs used to sample sandy beaches, and evaluate the performance of seven non-parametric extrapolative estimators for species richness relative to that of the more conventionally used observed species richness. We find that the first-order Jackknife estimator (Jack 1) is the least biased, most accurate and most consistent across sites. Employing this estimator would allow accurate estimation of species richness on short (tens of metres) stretches of beach without exceeding the acceptable levels of sampling effort (4–5 m²). Spreading this effort evenly over three across-shore transects, each with a minimum of 13 equally spaced levels seems appropriately efficient. Although a greater number of research studies is required to ascertain the generality of these results beyond the beaches we sampled, we tentatively recommend the application of our results in biodiversity surveys on sandy beaches.     

Data-based yearly forecasting of beach volumes along the Dutch North Sea coast

Beach and nearshore levels have been measured yearly along the entire Dutch North Sea coast since the mid 1960s (the ‘Jarkus’ data set). This data set has been processed to create separate time series of beach volumes at longshore intervals of about 250 m, giving over 2000 time series in total. These time series typically show a high annual variability with weak long-term trends. The present Dutch national coastal management strategy involves making year-ahead forecasts of beach volumes by extrapolating a linear least squares trend through the previous ten years' data separately for each longshore location. In this paper, these forecasts are shown to be worse than the trivial forecast in which the most recently measured beach volume persists unchanged into the future, with a mean square error (MSE) about 13.5% worse (equivalent to a root mean square error (RMSE) 6.5% worse). Improvements to these forecasts are sought by testing six different univariate forecasting methods. The two best methods improve on the persistence of the most recently measured beach volume by about 15% MSE (8% RMSE), and on the presently used linear least squares trend method by about 25% MSE (13.5% RMSE). Further comparisons are made between the forecasting methods to investigate several factors. These include varying the amount of fitting data for the forecasting methods, smoothing of the fitting data, different methods for interpolating gaps in the data, the longshore aggregation of data, making forecasts for coastal profiles with and without nourishments, and making forecasts up to five years ahead. These forecasting methods are designed as a coastal management tool to provide yearly forecasts quickly and routinely for the whole Dutch North Sea coast.     

纯方位目标跟踪-直角坐标卡尔曼滤波算法

对于纯方位目标跟踪问题 ,在利用卡尔曼滤波算法进行处理时 ,首先要进行观测方程及状态方程的线性化处理 ,自然导致线性化误差 ,为减少它对目标跟踪的影响 ,该文利用衰减记忆的卡尔曼滤波算法 ,通过蒙特卡罗模拟仿真实验表明其跟踪效果在收敛速度和收敛率以及稳定性等方面有了较大的提高。     

Framework development for beach management in the British Virgin Islands

Development pressures along with a growing tourism industry threaten ecological sustainability and long-term commercial success of beaches and nearby coastal habitats in the British Virgin Islands (BVI). Legislation pertaining to beach management is limited and specific management plans for beaches are non-existent. Using four key components: dimensional analysis, planning, management and monitoring, the foundation in which to formulate a framework for integrated coastal zone management with a focus on beaches is developed. In order to examine and test the viability of this foundation, two different BVI beaches are used as case studies.     

Comparing resident and tourist preferences for public beach access and related amenities

As coastal destinations continue to grow, due to tourism and residential expansion, the demand for public beach access and related amenities will also increase. The issue confronting management agencies responsible for providing and maintaining public beach access and related amenities is the varying needs and preferences of both residents and tourists of coastal destinations. The purpose of this paper is to provide comprehensive information about coastal recreational needs of residents and tourists with regards to public beach access and associated amenities using the stated preference choice method. Overall, the results indicate tourists were more interested in additional public beach access points and commercial development, while residents supported beach rules and regulations but opposed high levels of crowding and noise. Implications of these results for management agencies include the utilization of parking fees to subsidize additional public beach access points, identifying appropriate types and levels of commercial development that moderate the use of coastal resources by tourists and day-trip users, and implementing beach rules and regulations that reduce the potential for conflict between user groups. Providing management agencies with comprehensive information of the preferences of different beach user groups can assist in the development of more effective policies and management programs.