Implications of next generation attenuation ground motion prediction equations for site coefficients used in earthquake resistant design

Proposals are developed to update Tables 11.4‐1 and 11.4‐2 of Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other Structures published as American Society of Civil Engineers Structural Engineering Institute standard 7‐10 (ASCE/SEI 7–10). The updates are mean next generation attenuation (NGA) site coefficients inferred directly from the four NGA ground motion prediction equations used to derive the maximum considered earthquake response maps adopted in ASCE/SEI 7–10. Proposals include the recommendation to use straight‐line interpolation to infer site coefficients at intermediate values of (average shear velocity to 30‐m depth). The NGA coefficients are shown to agree well with adopted site coefficients at low levels of input motion (0.1 g) and those observed from the Loma Prieta earthquake. For higher levels of input motion, the majority of the adopted values are within the 95% epistemic‐uncertainty limits implied by the NGA estimates with the exceptions being the mid‐period site coefficient, F_v, for site class D and the short‐period coefficient, F_a, for site class C, both of which are slightly less than the corresponding 95% limit. The NGA data base shows that the median value of 913 m/s for site class B is more typical than 760 m/s as a value to characterize firm to hard rock sites as the uniform ground condition for future maximum considered earthquake response ground motion estimates. Future updates of NGA ground motion prediction equations can be incorporated easily into future adjustments of adopted site coefficients using procedures presented herein. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Simulation of synthetic ground motions for specified earthquake and site characteristics

A method for generating a suite of synthetic ground motion time‐histories for specified earthquake and site characteristics defining a design scenario is presented. The method employs a parameterized stochastic model that is based on a modulated, filtered white‐noise process. The model parameters characterize the evolving intensity, predominant frequency, and bandwidth of the acceleration time‐history, and can be identified by matching the statistics of the model to the statistics of a target‐recorded accelerogram. Sample ‘observations’ of the parameters are obtained by fitting the model to a subset of the NGA database for far‐field strong ground motion records on firm ground. Using this sample, predictive equations are developed for the model parameters in terms of the faulting mechanism, earthquake magnitude, source‐to‐site distance, and the site shear‐wave velocity. For any specified set of these earthquake and site characteristics, sets of the model parameters are generated, which are in turn used in the stochastic model to generate the ensemble of synthetic ground motions. The resulting synthetic acceleration as well as corresponding velocity and displacement time‐histories capture the main features of real earthquake ground motions, including the intensity, duration, spectral content, and peak values. Furthermore, the statistics of their resulting elastic response spectra closely agree with both the median and the variability of response spectra of recorded ground motions, as reflected in the existing prediction equations based on the NGA database. The proposed method can be used in seismic design and analysis in conjunction with or instead of recorded ground motions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A computational workflow for rupture‐to‐structural‐response simulation and its application to Istanbul

Scenario‐based earthquake simulations at regional scales hold the promise in advancing the state‐of‐the‐art in seismic risk assessment studies. In this study, a computational workflow is presented that combines (i) a broadband Green's function‐based fault‐rupture and ground motion simulation—herein carried out using the “UCSB (University of California at Santa Barbara) method”, (ii) a three‐dimensional physics‐based regional‐scale wave propagation simulation that is resolved at  Hz, and (iii) a local soil‐foundation‐structure finite element analysis model. These models are interfaced with each other using the domain reduction method. The innermost local model—implemented in ABAQUS—is additionally enveloped with perfectly matched layer boundaries that absorb outbound waves scattered by the structures contained within it. The intermediate wave propagation simulation is carried out using Hercules , which is an explicit time‐stepping finite element code that is developed and licensed by the CMU‐QUAKE group. The devised workflow is applied to a  km region on the European side of Istanbul, which was modeled using detailed soil stratigraphy data and realistic fault rupture properties, which are available from prior microzonation surveys and earthquake scenario studies. The innermost local model comprises a chevron‐braced steel frame building supported by a shallow foundation slab, which, in turn, rests atop a three‐dimensional soil domain. To demonstrate the utility of the workflow, results obtained using various simplified soil‐structure interaction analysis techniques are compared with those from the detailed direct model. While the aforementioned demonstration has a limited scope, the devised workflow can be used in a multitude of ways, for example, to examine the effects of shallow‐layer soil nonlinearities and surface topography, to devise site‐ and structure‐specific seismic fragilities, and for calibrating regional loss models, to name a few.     

Development of duration‐dependent damage‐based inelastic response spectra

A simple relationship is proposed in this paper to construct damage‐based inelastic response spectra including the effect of ground motion duration that it can be used for damage control in seismic design of structures. This relation is established for three groups of ground motions with short‐duration, moderate‐duration, and long‐duration ranges. To develop the model, the duration effect is included in the cyclic ductility of structures by an energy‐based method, and then strength reduction factors are computed based on this modified ductility (named ). The strength reduction factors were calculated for 44 stiffness‐degrading oscillators having vibration periods between 0.05 and 4.0 s, four ultimate ductility capacities, and five damage levels subjected to 296 earthquake records. The results showed that ductility capacity, damage level, and ground motion duration are effective parameters in the energy dissipation of structures, which affect the spectra. The values of short‐period oscillators (e.g., low‐rise structures) under short‐duration records are generally greater than those under moderate‐duration and long‐duration records. Residual analysis has been made in terms of magnitude and distance to examine the validity of the proposed simple expression. Finally, the introduced spectra were compared with three previously published proposals. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of ASCE 7 equations for designing acceleration‐sensitive nonstructural components using data from instrumented buildings

This study uses instrumented buildings and models of code‐based designed buildings to validate the results of previous studies that highlighted the need to revise the ASCE 7 F_p equation for designing nonstructural components (NSCs) through utilizing oversimplified linear and nonlinear models. The evaluation of floor response spectra of a large number of instrumented buildings illustrates that, unlike the ASCE 7 approach, the in‐structure and the component amplification factors are a function of the ratio of NSC period to the supporting building modal periods, the ground motion intensity, and the NSC location. It is also shown that the recorded ground motions at the base of instrumented buildings in most cases are significantly lower than design earthquake (DE) ground motions. Because ASCE 7 is meant to provide demands at a DE level, for a more reliable evaluation of the F_p equation, 2 representative archetype buildings are designed based on the ASCE 7‐16 seismic provisions and exposed to various ground motion intensity levels (including those consistent with the ones experienced by instrumented buildings and the DE). Simulation results of the archetype buildings, consistent with previous numerical studies, illustrate the tendency of the ASCE 7 in‐structure amplification factor, [1 + 2(z/h)] , to significantly overestimate demands at all floor levels and the ASCE 7 limit of to in many cases underestimate the calculated NSC amplification factors. Furthermore, the product of these 2 amplification factors (that represents the normalized peak NSC acceleration) in some cases exceeds the ASCE 7 equation by a factor up to 1.50.     

Simulation of orthogonal horizontal components of near‐fault ground motion for specified earthquake source and site characteristics

A procedure to generate horizontal pairs of synthetic near‐fault ground motion components for specified earthquake source and site characteristics is presented. Some near‐fault ground motions contain a forward directivity pulse; others do not, even when the conditions for such a pulse are favorable. The proposed procedure generates pulse‐like and non‐pulse‐like motions in appropriate proportions. We use our recent stochastic models of pulse‐like and non‐pulse‐like near‐fault ground motions that are formulated in terms of physically meaningful parameters. The parameters of these models are fitted to databases of recorded pulse‐like and non‐pulse‐like motions. Using these empirical “observations,” predictive relations are developed for the model parameters in terms of the earthquake source and site characteristics (type of faulting, earthquake magnitude, depth to top of rupture plane, source‐to‐site distance, site characteristics, and directivity parameters). The correlation coefficients between the model parameters are also estimated. For a given earthquake scenario, the probability of occurrence of a directivity pulse is first computed; pulse‐like and non‐pulse‐like motions are then simulated according to the predicted proportions using the empirical predictive models. The resulting time series are realistic and reproduce important features of recorded near‐fault ground motions, including the natural variability. Moreover, the statistics of their elastic response spectra agree with those of the NGA‐West2 dataset, with the additional feature of distinguishing between pulse‐like and non‐pulse‐like cases and between forward and backward directivity scenarios. The synthetic motions can be used in addition to or in place of recorded motions in performance‐based earthquake engineering, particularly when recorded motions are scarce.     

Deterministic ground motion simulations with shallow crust nonlinearity at Garner Valley in Southern California

We present deterministic ground motion simulations that account for the cyclic multiaxial response of sediments in the shallow crust. We use the Garner Valley in Southern California as a test case. The multiaxial constitutive model is based on the bounding surface plasticity theory in terms of total stress and is implemented in a high‐performance computing finite‐element parallel code. A major advantage of this model is the small number of free parameters that need to be calibrated given a shear modulus reduction curve and the ultimate soil strength. This, in turn, makes the model suitable for regional‐scale simulations, where geotechnical data in the shallow crust are scarce. In this paper, we first describe a series of numerical experiments designed to verify the model implementation. This is followed by a series of idealized large‐scale simulations in a 35 26 4.5 km domain that encompasses the Garner Valley downhole array site, which is an instrumented and well‐characterized site in Southern California. Material properties were extracted from the Southern California Earthquake Center Community velocity model, CVM‐S4.26, considering its optional geotechnical layer, while the modulus reduction curves and soil strength were selected empirically to constrain the nonlinear soil model parameters. Our nonlinear simulations suggest that peak ground displacements within the valley increase relative to the linear case, while peak ground accelerations can increase or decrease, depending on the frequency content of the excitation. The comparisons of our simulations against hybrid three‐dimensional–one‐dimensional site response analyses suggest the inadequacy of the latter to capture the complexity of fully three‐dimensional simulations.     

基于NGA模型的芦山余震地震动衰减关系

四川省芦山县于2013年4月20日发生了7.0级地震,基于国家强震动台网中心发布的此次地震的2 106组余震强震动记录,利用基于NGA衰减关系的简化模型,使用随机效应方法拟合得到其PGA以及0.01~8 s周期下的伪加速度反应谱（阻尼比5%）的地震动衰减关系。与其他学者研究得出的四川其他地区衰减关系进行对比,本文模型能够较好地预测芦山余震强震动衰减。不论基岩场地和软土场地,本文在衰减关系在短周期均与卢大伟模型结果一致。但是在长周期情况下,本文模型在软土场地大于卢大伟结果,而在基岩场地上低于俞言祥结果。因此,在使用本文衰减关系时,要特别注意场地和周期对其的影响。     

Ground‐motion prediction by a non‐parametric approach

Recently, several new ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) have been developed in the U.S.A. (the NGA project) and elsewhere. Unfortunately, the predictions obtained by using different models still differ considerably, although starting from the same database. In this paper, a non‐parametric approach, called the Conditional Average Estimator (CAE) method, has been used for ground‐motion prediction. The comparison between the CAE results and the predictions obtained by five NGA and one European model suggest that the model predictions depend substantially on the selection of the effective database and on the adopted functional form. Both decisions rely to some extent on judgement, and their influence is especially important at short distances from the source. The differences between the results obtained from the European and NGA databases seem to be of the same or even smaller magnitude than the differences observed between different NGA models, at least at short and moderate distances. Aftershocks in the database generally decrease the median values and increase dispersion. The non‐parametric CAE method has proved to be a simple but powerful tool for ground‐motion prediction, especially in a research environment. It can be used for quick predictions with different databases and different input parameters within the range of available data. It is easy to add to or remove data from the database, and to check the influence of additional input parameters. With availability of high quality data, the non‐parametric approach will become more reliable and more attractive also for practical applications. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ground motion directionality in the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquakes

This paper examines the observed directionality of ground motions in the Christchurch urban area during the 2010–2011 Canterbury, New Zealand earthquakes. A dataset of ground motions recorded at 20 strong motion stations over 10 different earthquake events is utilized to examine the ratios of various response spectral directionality definitions and the orientation of the maximum direction. Because the majority of previous related studies have utilized overlapping ground motion datasets from the NGA database, the results of this study provide a largely independent assessment of these ground motion aspects. It is found that the directionality ratio between the maximum (100th percentile) and 50th percentile orientation‐independent spectral acceleration is similar to that obtained from recent studies. Ground motions from the 4 September 2010 Darfield earthquake are shown to exhibit strong directionality for source‐to‐site distances up to R_rup = 30 km, notably further than results from a previous study, which suggests that such effects are generally limited to R_rup < 5 km. The adopted dataset also offers the unique potential to consider site‐specific effects on directionality ratios and maximum direction orientations; however, in both cases, site‐specific effects are found not to be significant in the observed empirical results. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation of orthogonal horizontal ground motion components for specified earthquake and site characteristics

A method for generating an ensemble of orthogonal horizontal ground motion components with correlated parameters for specified earthquake and site characteristics is presented. The method employs a parameterized stochastic model that is based on a time‐modulated filtered white‐noise process with the filter having time‐varying characteristics. Whereas the input white‐noise excitation describes the stochastic nature of the ground motion, the forms of the modulating function and the filter and their parameters characterize the evolutionary intensity and nonstationary frequency content of the ground motion. The stochastic model is fitted to a database of recorded horizontal ground motion component pairs that are rotated into their principal axes, a set of orthogonal axes along which the components are statistically uncorrelated. Model parameters are identified for each ground motion component in the database. Using these data, predictive equations are developed for the model parameters in terms of earthquake and site characteristics and correlation coefficients between parameters of the two components are estimated. Given a design scenario specified in terms of earthquake and site characteristics, the results of this study allow one to generate realizations of correlated model parameters and use them along with simulated white‐noise processes to generate synthetic pairs of horizontal ground motion components along the principal axes. The proposed simulation method does not require any seed recorded ground motion and is ideal for use in performance‐based earthquake engineering. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modification of stochastic ground motion models for matching target intensity measures

Stochastic ground motion models produce synthetic time‐histories by modulating a white noise sequence through functions that address spectral and temporal properties of the excitation. The resultant ground motions can be then used in simulation‐based seismic risk assessment applications. This is established by relating the parameters of the aforementioned functions to earthquake and site characteristics through predictive relationships. An important concern related to the use of these models is the fact that through current approaches in selecting these predictive relationships, compatibility to the seismic hazard is not guaranteed. This work offers a computationally efficient framework for the modification of stochastic ground motion models to match target intensity measures (IMs) for a specific site and structure of interest. This is set as an optimization problem with a dual objective. The first objective minimizes the discrepancy between the target IMs and the predictions established through the stochastic ground motion model for a chosen earthquake scenario. The second objective constraints the deviation from the model characteristics suggested by existing predictive relationships, guaranteeing that the resultant ground motions not only match the target IMs but are also compatible with regional trends. A framework leveraging kriging surrogate modeling is formulated for performing the resultant multi‐objective optimization, and different computational aspects related to this optimization are discussed in detail. The illustrative implementation shows that the proposed framework can provide ground motions with high compatibility to target IMs with small only deviation from existing predictive relationships and discusses approaches for selecting a final compromise between these two competing objectives.     

Correlation in spectral accelerations for earthquakes in Europe

The shape of a uniform hazard spectrum has been criticized to be unrealistic for a site where the spectral ordinates of the uniform hazard spectrum at different periods are governed by different scenario events and conservative for long‐return‐period earthquake shaking. The conditional mean spectrum considering epsilon (CMS‐ε) takes into account the correlation of spectral demands (represented by values of ε) at different periods, to address these issues. This paper proposes new prediction models for the correlation coefficient of ε(T₁) and ε(T₂), a key component for developing a CMS, using Pan‐European earthquake records from a European ground motion database. Epsilon (ε) for each record is computed using the 2005 Ambraseys ground‐motion prediction equation. The model can be used to develop CMS for European sites, and it can be incorporated in the European seismic standards. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Empirical attenuation relationship for Arias Intensity

Arias Intensity is a ground motion parameter that captures the potential destructiveness of an earthquake as the integral of the square of the acceleration–time history. It correlates well with several commonly used demand measures of structural performance, liquefaction, and seismic slope stability. A new empirical relationship is developed to estimate Arias Intensity as a function of magnitude, distance, fault mechanism, and site category based on 1208 recorded ground motion data from 75 earthquakes in active plate‐margins. Its functional form is derived from the point‐source model, and the coefficients are determined through non‐linear regression analyses using a random‐effects model. The results show that for large magnitude earthquakes (M > 7) Arias Intensity was significantly overestimated by previous relationships while it was underestimated for smaller magnitude events (M ? 6). The average horizontal Arias Intensity is not significantly affected by forward rupture directivity in the near‐fault region. The aleatory variability associated with Arias Intensity is larger than that of most other ground motion parameters such as spectral acceleration. However, it may be useful in assessing the potential seismic performance of stiff engineering systems whose response is dominated by the short‐period characteristics of ground motions. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of peak ground velocity on deformation demands for SDOF systems

The effect of peak ground velocity (PGV) on single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) deformation demands and for certain ground‐motion features is described by using a total of 60 soil site records with source‐to‐site distances less than 23 km and moment magnitudes between 5.5 and 7.6. The observations based on these records indicate that PGV correlates well with the earthquake magnitude and provides useful information about the ground‐motion frequency content and strong‐motion duration that can play a role on the seismic demand of structures. The statistical results computed from non‐linear response history analyses of different hysteretic models highlight that PGV correlates better with the deformation demands with respect to other ground motion intensity measures. The choice of PGV as ground motion intensity decreases the dispersion due to record‐to‐record variability of SDOF deformation demands, particularly in the short period range. The central tendencies of deformation demands are sensitive to PGV and they may vary considerably as a function of the hysteretic model and structural period. The results provided in this study suggest a consideration of PGV as a stable candidate for ground motion intensity measure in simplified seismic assessment methods that are used to estimate structural performance for earthquake hazard analysis. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Enrichment of seismic ground motion databases using Karhunen–Loève expansion

Best estimate seismic analysis are generally based on time‐domain simulations of structural responses. The seismic load is then modeled by a stochastic process representing ground motion. For this purpose, the analyst can use recorded accelerograms or work with synthetically generated ones. The number of ground motion time‐histories available for a given scenario and site condition is limited and generally not sufficient for carrying out more advanced probabilistic structural response analysis. It is then necessary to have at our disposal methods that allow for generating synthetic accelerograms that realistically characterize earthquake ground motions. However, most of the methods proposed in literature for generating synthetic accelerograms do not accurately reproduce the natural variability of ground motion parameters (such as PGA, cumulative absolute velocity, and Arias intensity) observed for recorded time histories. In this paper, we introduce a new method for generating synthetic ground motion, based on Karhunen‐Loève decomposition and a non‐Gaussian stochastic model. The proposed method enables the structural analyst to simulate ground motion time histories featuring the properties mentioned above. To demonstrate its capability, we study the influence of the simulation method on different ground motion parameters and on soil response spectra. We finally compute fragility curves to illustrate the practical application of the proposed method. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Direct use of PGV for estimating peak nonlinear oscillator displacements

A predictive model is presented for estimating the peak inelastic oscillator displacements (S_d,ie) from peak ground velocity (PGV). The proposed model accounts for the variation of S_d,ie for bilinear hysteretic behavior under constant ductility (µ) and normalized lateral strength ratio (R) associated with postyield stiffness ratios of α=0 and 5%. The regression coefficients are based on a ground‐motion database that contains dense‐to‐stiff soil site recordings at distances of up to 30 km from the causative fault. The moment magnitude ( M ) range of the database is 5.2? M ?7.6 and the ground motions do not exhibit pulse‐dominant signals. Confined to the limitations imposed by the ground‐motion database, the model can estimate S_d,ie by employing the PGV predictions obtained from the attenuation relationships (ground‐motion prediction equations). In this way, the influence of important seismological parameters can be incorporated to the variation of S_d,ie in a fairly rationale manner. This feature of the predictive model advocates its implementation in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that employs scalar ground‐motion intensity indices. Various case studies are presented to show the consistent estimations of S_d,ie by the proposed model. The error propagation in the S_d,ie estimations is also discussed when the proposed model is associated with attenuation relationships. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tall building performance‐based seismic design using SCEC broadband platform site‐specific ground motion simulations

The scarcity of strong ground motion records presents a challenge for making reliable performance assessments of tall buildings whose seismic design is controlled by large‐magnitude and close‐distance earthquakes. This challenge can be addressed using broadband ground‐motion simulation methods to generate records with site‐specific characteristics of large‐magnitude events. In this paper, simulated site‐specific earthquake seismograms, developed through a related project that was organized through the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Ground Motion Simulation Validation (GMSV) Technical Activity Group, are used for nonlinear response history analyses of two archetype tall buildings for sites in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino. The SCEC GMSV team created the seismograms using the Broadband Platform (BBP) simulations for five site‐specific earthquake scenarios. The two buildings are evaluated using nonlinear dynamic analyses under comparable record suites selected from the simulated BBP catalog and recorded motions from the NGA‐West database. The collapse risks and structural response demands (maximum story drift ratio, peak floor acceleration, and maximum story shear) under the BBP and NGA suites are compared. In general, this study finds that use of the BBP simulations resolves concerns about estimation biases in structural response analysis which are caused by ground motion scaling, unrealistic spectral shapes, and overconservative spectral variations. While there are remaining concerns that strong coherence in some kinematic fault rupture models may lead to an overestimation of velocity pulse effects in the BBP simulations, the simulations are shown to generally yield realistic pulse‐like features of near‐fault ground motion records.