八百里洞庭缘何缺水

保护洞庭湖湿地的本质问题是维护和发挥湿地的“地球之肾”功能。为此，一是湿地要有水；二是湿地植物生态系统不被破坏。     

1998年长江洪水初析

１９９８年长江流域发生了本世纪以来仅次于１５５４年的又一次流域性洪水,洪水水位高、洪量大、高水位持续时间长、洪水遭遇较恶劣;长江中下游干流沙市～螺山、武穴～九江河段及洞庭湖城陵矶、鄱阳湖湖口出现了超历史记录的洪水位,“两湖”水系部分支流也出现了超历史记录的洪水。本文从天气环流背景及降雨特征、水情发展过程、洪水分析、两湖调蓄能力和洪水特点等方面,对１９９８年长江大洪水进行了初步分析。     

环境地球化学——东洞庭湖水质环境地球化学研究

洞庭湖湿地是我国最重要湿地资源之一。近年来受人为因素影响，湿地功能遭受严重的破坏。为探讨洞庭湖的湿地功能，查明东洞庭湖水质污染现状，本文应用现场水质分析仪所测DO，pH，Orp，Cl^-，NH^4＋-N，NH3-N，NO3-N等水质指标、ICP-MS所测31件水样中20种元素含量以及11件底泥样品中15种元素含量，对东洞庭湖的水环境质量作出评价，找出污染物的空间分布特征，并将水样与底泥样进行对比，     

东洞庭湖水质环境地球化学研究

洞庭湖湿地是我国最重要湿地资源之一。近年来受人为因素影响,湿地功能遭受严重的破坏。为探讨洞庭湖的湿地功能,查明东洞庭湖水质污染现状,本文应用现场水质分析仪所测DO,pH,Orp,C l-,NH4+-N,NH3-N,NO3—N等水质指标、ICP—MS所测31件水样中20种元素含量以及11件底泥样品中15种元素含量,对东洞庭湖的水环境质量作出评价,找出污染物的空间分布特征,并将水样与底泥样进行对比,分析湖水中重金属的迁移转换规律,进一步运用多元统计的有关分析方法对样品进行分类。对比采用的标准是国家环保总局和国家质量监督检验检疫总局于2002年4月28…     

基于层次分析法的盘锦湿地生态评价

根据多年对盘锦湿地的调查研究,参照国内外湿地生态评价的指标和方法,选用反映湿地生态服务功能、生态保护功能和社会文化价值的12项指标,运用层次分析法对盘锦湿地进行生态评价.评价结果显示,盘锦湿地整体生态环境较好,其中均化洪水功能、调节气候功能、旅游观光价值、保护生物多样性、生态系统稳定性等功能,在决定湿地价值时起着重要作用.评价结果CEI值为0.7082,在（0.7,1]之间,表明盘锦湿地整体生态环境较好.针对盘锦湿地,地面沉降问题、地表土壤、植被的破坏、环境污染问题、地下水过量开采问题,提出了相应的对策,为湿地保护和开发利用提供参考.     

长江中游地区江湖综合整治环境地质研究

１９９８年洪水险恶,江湖沿岸险象环生,显示出大堤加高与洪水位上升矛盾已发展到激化的程度．从追踪分析一江（长江）两湖（江汉湖群、洞庭湖）关系演变和下荆江蜿蜒性河道演变规律入手,探讨并提出了顺应自然规律,实施荆北人工分流、退田还湖、闸住“三口”、协调发展、江湖两利的综合整治系统工程．     

洞庭湖萎缩对湖内洪水影响

为了更好地理解湖泊萎缩对湖内洪水过程的影响,在假定洞庭湖将继续萎缩的前提下,通过建立荆江-洞庭湖水动力模型,定量分析洞庭湖萎缩对湖内洪水的影响。研究结果表明,湖内水位及洪峰流量随湖泊面积的萎缩而增加,洪峰水位到达时刻随着湖泊萎缩而提前。若遇1996年型洪水,洞庭湖面积若从目前的2 670 km2减小至1 380 km2时,西洞庭湖及南洞庭湖内最高水位将抬高2.0 m左右,东洞庭湖水位将抬升0.4 m左右,城陵矶站点洪峰水位到达时刻将提前约11 h,洪峰流量增加约4 800 m3/s。因此,若洞庭湖湖泊面积在目前基础上（面积2 670 km2）继续萎缩,湖区特别是西洞庭湖及南洞庭湖将面临更为严峻的洪水灾害。虽然湖泊萎缩对西洞庭湖与南洞庭湖内水面坡降影响较小,但东洞庭湖内水位同时受湖泊萎缩及长江来流的影响,水面坡降发生较大变化,在距离蔡家洲80~110 km（鹿角站附近）河段水面坡降出现大幅增大。     

洞庭湖“96·7”洪水与水文预报效益

洞庭湖“９６·７”洪水与水文预报效益雷激王建佳（湖南省水文水资源勘测局１９９６年７月,冷暖空气长时间交汇于我省上空,产生多次暴雨、大暴雨,致使资水、沅江和洞庭湖区发生了特大洪水。上述流域和洞庭湖区的主要地段洪峰流量和水位均接近和超过历史最高纪录,造成...     

长江流域“2017·07”暴雨洪水分析

2017年6月下旬至7月初,受持续强降雨影响,长江发生中游区域性大洪水。以实时报汛数据为基础,分析长江"2017·07"暴雨洪水特性,依据洪峰水位判断,强降雨导致洞庭湖水系湘江发生超历史最高水位特大洪水,资水、沅江发生超保证水位大洪水,洞庭湖超过保证水位;鄱阳湖水系乐安河上游发生超历史最高水位特大洪水,昌江、乐安河中下游、修水发生10a一遇较大洪水,鄱阳湖超过警戒水位;长江干流莲花塘以下江段全线超过警戒水位。在应对此次洪水过程中,长江上中游重点水库防洪效益十分明显,有效避免中游干流莲花塘至螺山江段超保,缩短洞庭湖城陵矶站超保时间6d左右。     

洪泛湿地系统地表水与地下水转化研究进展综述

洪泛湿地地表水(SW)与地下水(GW)转化关系研究对综合管理湿地水资源具有重要的理论和实践意义。通过洪泛湿地SW-GW转化研究进展的综述,可深入了解国内外SW-GW转化研究的发展过程,有利于把握国际研究的主流趋势,系统掌握该方面研究的前沿手段。总结得出,洪泛湿地是我国诸多生态系统中特色突出的水文系统,其独特的水文变化及洪水脉冲的周期性扰动,使得SW-GW转化的动力学过程促进了洪泛湿地环境系统之间物质、能量和信息的传递与交换,驱动了湿地演变、物质元素循环和生物生长等生态功能的实现。分析认为,洪泛湿地的开放性和复杂性等特点决定了多学科交叉理论与方法成为SW-GW转化研究的流行手段和创新的基本思路。从学科发展趋势和应用需求的角度出发,应结合洪泛湿地多源数据信息与SW-GW耦合数值模型,深入揭示洪泛湿地SW-GW转化的动力学过程及对洪水脉冲变化的响应机制,这既是一个基础性工作,也是一个具有前瞻性的研究,将为湿地水资源、水环境等综合管理与调控提供科学依据,对诠释湿地生态效应内涵具有重要意义。     

中国蓄滞洪区洪水管理与可持续发展途径

蓄滞洪区的行蓄洪启用频率和蓄水方式决定着洪水管理与可持续发展途径,影响流域经济社会的可持续发展.根据各大流域蓄滞洪区的设计启用频率,设置了未来35年内蓄滞洪区发展的3种情景:维持现状、部分水库化和部分湿地化,构建了涵盖防洪、社会经济和生态发展等因子的途径选择指标体系,运用数据包络分析法(DEA),识别了不同设计启用频率的蓄滞洪区洪水管理与可持续发展的最优途径.结果表明:① 不同设计启用频率的蓄滞洪区在建成35年内,部分湿地化情景是中国70%蓄滞洪区的最优发展途径.② 设计启用频率50年一遇是蓄滞洪区发展途径选择的边界值;当等于或低于50年一遇时,部分湿地化是其最优途径;当高于50年一遇时,维持其现状是最优途径.     

挠力河流域湿地和耕地变化对径流深的影响研究

运用线性、对数、指数和三次函数关系拟合挠力河流域1956～2000年湿地面积、耕地面积以及面降水量对径流深的影响,得出:①三次函数拟合的相关性最好;②湿地面积减少和耕地面积增加与径流深的相关性小于面降水量与径流深的相关性.通过分析湿地面积减少和耕地面积增大对径流递减贡献机理,认为湿地面积减少,降低了湿地冷湿效应,增加了陆面蒸发的潜力;湿地转变成耕地,改变了土壤对降水的再分配过程;耕地面积的扩大增大了土壤蒸发潜力;旱地改成水稻田增大了地表水的利用率和地下水的利用量,这些是流域地表径流深减小的原因.研究结论显示湿地面积的减少和耕地面积的增加对流域径流深的递减有较为明显的贡献;径流深的减小是流域呈干旱趋势的指征.     

Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method

This article deals with methods for the estimation of loss of life due to flooding. These methods can be used to assess the flood risks and to identify mitigation strategies. The first part of this article contains a comprehensive review of existing literature. Methods have been developed for different types of floods in different regions. In general these methods relate the loss of life in the flooded area to the flood characteristics and the possibilities for evacuation and shelter. An evaluation showed that many of the existing methods do not take into account all of the most relevant determinants of loss of life and that they are often to a limited extent based on empirical data of historical flood events. In the second part of the article, a new method is proposed for the estimation of loss of life caused by the flooding of low-lying areas protected by flood defences. An estimate of the loss of life due to a flood event can be given based on: (1) information regarding the flood characteristics, (2) an analysis of the exposed population and evacuation, and (3) an estimate of the mortality amongst the exposed population. By analysing empirical information from historical floods, new mortality functions have been developed. These relate the mortality amongst the exposed population to the flood characteristics. Comparison of the outcomes of the proposed method with information from historical flood events shows that it gives an accurate approximation of the number of observed fatalities during these events. The method is applied to assess the consequences for a large-scale flooding of the area of South Holland, in the Netherlands. It is estimated that the analysed coastal flood scenario can lead to approximately 3,200 fatalities in this area.

Contribution of Mangroves and Salt Marshes to Nature-Based Mitigation of Coastal Flood Risks in Major Deltas of the World

Nature-based solutions are rapidly gaining interest in the face of global change and increasing flood risks. While assessments of flood risk mitigation by coastal ecosystems are mainly restricted to local scales, our study assesses the contribution of salt marshes and mangroves to nature-based storm surge mitigation in 11 large deltas around the world. We present a relatively simple GIS model that, based on globally available input data, provides an estimation of the tidal wetland’s capacity of risk mitigation at a regional scale. It shows the high potential of nature-based solutions, as tidal wetlands, to provide storm surge mitigation to more than 80% of the flood-exposed land area for 4 of the 11 deltas and to more than 70% of the flood-exposed population for 3 deltas. The magnitude of the nature-based mitigation, estimated as the length of the storm surge pathway crossing through tidal wetlands, was found to be significantly correlated to the total wetland area within a delta. This highlights the importance of conserving extensive continuous tidal wetlands as a nature-based approach to mitigate flood risks. Our analysis further reveals that deltas with limited historical wetland reclamation and therefore large remaining wetlands, such as the Mississippi, the Niger, and part of the Ganges-Brahmaputra deltas, benefit from investing in the conservation of their vast wetlands, while deltas with extensive historical wetland reclamation, such as the Yangtze and Rhine deltas, may improve the sustainability of flood protection programs by combining existing hard engineering with new nature-based solutions through restoration of former wetlands.     

洪水保险债券的运作机制与发展思路

由于传统(再)保险,难以将洪灾风险进行有效的分散,因此,有必要寻求有效的金融工具将洪灾风险向资本市场转移。在建立洪水保险债券的概念框架基础上,阐述了与普通债券及传统再保险的区别。从经济学和精算学的角度对洪水保险债券进行分析,揭示了洪水保险债券定价机制。通过研究洪水保险债券的运作模式,分析了我国洪水保险债券的发行条件与发展思路,指出洪水保险债券为我国防洪减灾提供了可资借鉴的崭新方法与工具。     

Pervasive wetland flooding in the glacial drift prairie of North Dakota (USA)

This article describes a unique flood hazard, produced by the dramatic expansion of wetlands in Nelson County, located within the North American Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA. There has been an unprecedented increase in the number, average size, and permanence of prairie wetlands, and a significant increase in the size of a closed lake (Stump Lake) due to a decade-long wet spell that began in 1993 following a prolonged drying trend. Base-line land cover information from the 1992 USGS National Land Cover Characterization dataset, and a Landsat TM scene acquired 9 July 2001 are used to assess the growth of the closed lake and wetland pond surface areas, and to analyze the type and area of various land cover classes inundated between 1992 and 2001. The open water profile in Nelson County changed from one marked by relatively comparable coverage of closed lake and wetland pond areas in 1992, to one in which wetland open water accounted for the vast majority of total open water in 2001. The bulk of the wetland pond area expansion occurred by displacing existing wetland vegetation and agricultural cropland. Producers responded to the flood hazard by filing Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) claims and enrolling cropland in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), a federal land retirement program. Land taken out of agricultural production has had an enormous impact upon the agricultural sector that forms the economic base of the rural economy. In 2001 the land taken out of production due to CRP enrollment and preventive planting claims represented nearly 42% of Nelson County’s 205.2 K ha base agricultural land. The patterns obtained from this detailed study of Nelson County are likely to be the representative of the more publicized flood disaster occurring within the Devils Lake Basin of North Dakota.     

Examining the relationship between wetland alteration and watershed flooding in Texas and Florida

Inland flooding remains one of the greatest threats to the safety of human population in the United States (US). While few large-scale studies exist, the potential role of naturally occurring wetlands in mitigating flood duration and intensity has been widely discussed. This study examines the relationship between wetland alteration and coastal watershed flooding in Texas and Florida over a 12-year period. Specifically, we geo-reference wetland alteration permits required under Section 404 of the US Clean Water Act and correlate the number of granted permits with the degree of flooding measured by stream gauge data. Results indicate that specific types of federal permits exacerbate flooding events in coastal watersheds while controlling for various environmental and socioeconomic characteristics.     

基于copula函数的三峡水库预泄对鄱阳湖防洪影响分析

三峡工程的运行对鄱阳湖防洪形势存在潜在影响。以三峡-鄱阳湖系统为典型,采用基于copula理论的多维联合分布函数,建立三峡工程运行前长江-鄱阳湖-"五河"(赣江、抚河、信江、饶河、修河)系统中水文要素之间的联合概率分布及条件概率分布,并假设该条件分布关系在三峡工程运行前后保持不变;估计三峡工程运行后长江水文要素的概率分布,结合前面的条件概率分布,可以得到三峡工程运行后研究变量的概率分布;对比分析前后概率分布的变化,即可从统计角度评价三峡水库运行对鄱阳湖水文情势的影响。研究表明:三峡工程运行对鄱阳湖水位有一定影响;5、6月份三峡预泄,将增高鄱阳湖水位,其中,平均水位的增幅大于最高水位增幅,低水增幅大于高水增幅;三峡预泄影响下,湖区圩堤堤前水位没有超过原有堤防设计水位,没有降低湖区圩堤的防洪标准。     

Flood risk management in Central Viet Nam: challenges and potentials

This article explores the impacts of floods on the economy, environment, and society and tries to clarify the rural community’s coping mechanism to flood disasters in Central Viet Nam. It focuses on the social aspects of flood risk perception that shapes the responses to floods. The research findings revealed that flooding is an essential element for a coastal population, whose livelihood depend on productive functions of cyclical floods. The findings also revealed that floods, causing losses and damages, often inhibited economic development. The surveyed communities appeared to have evolved coping mechanisms to reduce the negative impacts of the floods, yet these coping mechanisms are under pressure due to environmental degradation. Integrated flood risk management is considered as a suitable paradigm for coping with flood disasters.