Deep North Atlantic freshening simulated in a coupled climate model

The observed recent freshening trend in the deep North Atlantic and the Labrador Sea is investigated in three forced ensembles and a long control simulations using the HadCM3 coupled ocean–atmosphere–sea-ice climate model. The 40 yr freshening trend during the late half of the 20th century is captured in the all forcings ensemble that applies all major external (natural and anthropogenic) forcing factors. Each ensemble has four members with different initial conditions taking from the control run at a 100 yr interval. No similar freshening trend is found in each of the four corresponding periods of the control simulation. However, there are five large freshening events in a 1640 yr period of the control run, each following a sudden salinity increase. A process analysis revealed that the increase in salinity in the Labrador Sea is closely linked to deep convections while the following freshening trend is accompanied by a period of very weak convective activities.The fact that none of the five large freshening events appears in the four corresponding periods following the initial conditions of the four members of the all forcings ensemble suggest that external forcings may have contributed to triggering the events. Further analyses of two other ensemble simulations (natural forcings only and anthropogenic forcings only) have shown that natural rather than anthropogenic factors are responsible. Based on our model results, we can not attribute the simulated freshening to anthropogenic climate change.     

Causes of a fresher, colder northern North Atlantic in late 20th century in a coupled model

Observational evidence indicates that in the northern North Atlantic, especially in the Labrador Sea, almost the whole column of the ocean water is fresher, and colder in late 20th century than in 1950–1960s. Here we analyze a four-member ensemble of the 20th century simulations from a coupled climate model to examine the possible causes for these observed changes. The model simulations resemble the observed changes in the northern North Atlantic. The simulated results show that a decreased meridional freshwater divergence and an increased meridional heat divergence associated with a weaker thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic are the primary causes for the freshening and cooling in the northern North Atlantic. The increased precipitation less evaporation tends to enforce the freshening, but the reduced sea ice flux into this region tends to weaken it. On the other hand, the surface warming induced by a higher atmospheric CO₂ concentration tends to heat up the northern North Atlantic, but is overcome by the cooling from increased meridional heat divergence.     

Metal fluxes through the Strait of Gibraltar: the influence of the Tinto and Odiel rivers (SW Spain)

A large set of new data concerning dissolved metal concentrations has been acquired in the Gulf of Cadiz and in the Strait of Gibraltar from 1996 to 1999. These data, associated with models (hydrodynamic, tracer advection–dispersion and mixing), have been used to assess the influence of rivers draining the South Iberian Pyrite Belt on the Gulf of Cadiz and on the Atlantic inflow in the Strait of Gibraltar.Metal concentrations in surface waters from the Gulf of Cadiz are maximal near the mouth of the Tinto/Odiel rivers with values exceeding 50 nmol/kg (Mn), 5 nmol/kg (Ni), 30 nmol/kg (Cu), 100 nmol/kg (Zn), 0.9 nmol/kg (Cd) and 45 nmol/kg (As). From the Tinto/Odiel river, a plume of contamination follows the coast in the direction of the Strait of Gibraltar. The computation of a tracer advection–dispersion model confirms that the coastal currents carry the metals discharged from the Tinto and Odiel to the Strait of Gibraltar.From temperature–salinity and metal–salinity plots, four water masses can be recognised in the Gulf of Cadiz and in the Strait of Gibraltar: North Atlantic Surface Water (NASW), North Atlantic Central Water (NACW) and metal-enriched Spanish Shelf Waters from the Gulf of Cadiz (SSW). The Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) is also clearly seen at depths greater than 300 m.The chemical characteristics of these various water masses have been used in a mixing model to evaluate their relative contribution to the Atlantic inflow through the Strait of Gibraltar. These contributions are seasonally variable. In June 1997, the contribution was: 80±20%, 5±5% and 15±10% for NASW, NACW and SSW, respectively. In September, the SSW contribution was apparently negligible.Finally, these relative contributions allow the evaluation of the metal fluxes in the Strait of Gibraltar. The presence of SSW in the Strait increases the metal flux to the Mediterranean Sea by a factor of 2.3 (Cu), 2.4 (Cd), 3 (Zn) and 7 (Mn). It does not modify significantly As and Ni fluxes.     

The effect of ocean tides on a climate model simulation

We implemented an explicit forcing of the complete lunisolar tides into an ocean model which is part of a coupled atmosphere–hydrology–ocean–sea ice model. An ensemble of experiments with this climate model shows that the model is significantly affected by the induced tidal mixing and nonlinear interactions of tides with low frequency motion. The largest changes occur in the North Atlantic where the ocean current system gets changed on large scales. In particular, the pathway of the North Atlantic Current is modified resulting in improved sea surface temperature fields compared to the non-tidal run. These modifications are accompanied by a more realistic simulation of the convection in the Labrador Sea. The modification of sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic region leads to heat flux changes of up to 50 W/m². The climate simulations indicate that an improvement of the North Atlantic Current has implications for the simulation of the Western European Climate, with amplified temperature trends between 1950 and 2000, which are closer to the observed trends.     

The oxygen isotope composition of water masses in the northern North Atlantic

The ratio of oxygen-18 to oxygen-16 (expressed as per mille deviations from Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water, δ¹⁸O) is reported for seawater samples collected from seven full-depth CTD casts in the northern North Atlantic between 20° and 41°W, 52° and 60°N. Water masses in the study region are distinguished by their δ¹⁸O composition, as are the processes involved in their formation. The isotopically heaviest surface waters occur in the eastern region where values of δ¹⁸O and salinity (S) lie on an evaporation–precipitation line with slope of 0.6 in δ¹⁸O–S space. Surface isotopic values become progressively lighter to the west of the region due to the addition of ¹⁸O-depleted precipitation. This appears to be mainly the meteoric water outflow from the Arctic rather than local precipitation. Surface samples near the southwest of the survey area (close to the Charlie Gibbs Fracture Zone) show a deviation in δ¹⁸O–S space from the precipitation mixing line due to the influence of sea ice meltwater. We speculate that this is the effect of the sea ice meltwater efflux from the Labrador Sea. Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW) is modified en route to the Labrador Sea where it forms Labrador Sea Water (LSW). LSW lies to the right (saline) side of the precipitation mixing line, indicating that there is a positive net sea ice formation from its source waters. We estimate that a sea ice deficit of ≈250 km³ is incorporated annually into LSW. This ice forms further north from the Labrador Sea, but its effect is transferred to the Labrador Sea via, e.g. the East Greenland Current. East Greenland Current waters are relatively fresh due to dilution with a large amount of meteoric water, but also contain waters that have had a significant amount of sea ice formed from them. The Northeast Atlantic Deep Water (NEADW, δ¹⁸O=0.22‰) and Northwest Atlantic Bottom Waters (NWABW, δ¹⁸O=0.13‰) are isotopically distinct reflecting different formation and mixing processes. NEADW lies on the North Atlantic precipitation mixing line in δ¹⁸O–salinity space, whereas NWABW lies between NEADW and LSW on δ¹⁸O–salinity plots. The offset of NWABW relative to the North Atlantic precipitation mixing line is partially due to entrainment of LSW by the Denmark Strait overflow water during its overflow of the Denmark Strait sill. In the eastern basin, lower deep water (LDW, modified Antarctic bottom water) is identified as far north as 55°N. This LDW has δ¹⁸O of 0.13‰, making it quite distinct from NEADW. It is also warmer than NWABW, despite having a similar isotopic composition to this latter water mass.     

Strengths and weaknesses of the global ocean conveyor: Inter-basin freshwater disparities as the major control

According to the current paradigm of modern climatology and oceanography, the global ocean thermohaline circulation works as the so-called “global ocean salinity conveyor belt” – a system of currents connecting different ocean basins and most notably – the northern North Atlantic and northern North Pacific Oceans – the most distant regions of the world ocean. It is shown here that a slight disparity in freshwater redistribution between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans can be sufficient for building up and maintaining a global conveyor-type ocean thermohaline circulation. On the other hand, relatively small changes in this disparity leading to change in sea surface salinity contrasts between and in the north-south within the northern parts of these two oceans can easily change the conveyor.     

Sensitivity of the Atlantic Ocean circulation to a hydraulic overflow parameterisation in a coarse resolution model: Response of the subpolar gyre

We investigate the sensitivity of a coarse resolution coupled climate model to the representation of the overflows over the Greenland–Scotland ridge. This class of models suffers from a poor representation of the water mass exchange between the Nordic Seas and the North Atlantic, a crucial part of the large-scale oceanic circulation. We revisit the explicit representation of the overflows using a parameterisation by hydraulic constraints and compare it with the enhancement of the overflow transport by artificially deepened passages over the Greenland–Scotland ridge, a common practice in coarse resolution models. Both configurations increase deep water formation in the Nordic Seas and represent the large-scale dynamics of the Atlantic realistically in contrast to a third model version with realistic sill depths but without the explicit overflow transport. The comparison of the hydrography suggests that for the unperturbed equilibrium the Nordic Seas are better represented with the parameterised overflows. As in previous studies, we do not find a stabilising effect of the overflow parameterisation on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation but merely on the overflow transport. As a consequence the surface air temperature in the Nordic Seas is less sensitive to anomalous surface fresh water forcing.Special attention is paid to changes in the subpolar gyre circulation. We find it sensitive to the overflow transport and the density of these water masses through baroclinic adjustments. The analysis of the governing equations confirms the presence of positive feedbacks inherent to the subpolar gyre and allows us to isolate the influence of the overflows on its dynamics.     

Biogeochemical processes in a freshwater–seawater mixing zone in permeable sediments along the coast of Southern Brazil

The southern portion of the Brazilian coast is dominated by coastal lagoons formed by sandy barrier spits with small inlets. This coastal configuration is a barrier to the surface flow of freshwater to the sea; thus, we suspect that a significant amount of freshwater flows through the permeable sands, beneath the barrier spits, where it mixes with seawater. We excavated an 18-m-deep well into the barrier spit which separates the Patos Lagoon from the South Atlantic. Using this well, we were able to sample interstitial waters from discrete layers, at 1-m intervals, which were analyzed for salinity, temperature, pH, nutrients (ammonium, nitrate, phosphate, and silicate), uranium, molybdenum, and barium. Similar analyses were made on surface water samples from the Patos Lagoon estuarine mixing zone.Results of well samples show a continuous increase in salinity with depth reaching 18 at the bottom. Ammonium and silicate are high, generally around 100 and 100–150 μM, respectively, throughout the subterranean profile. Phosphate shows a distinct maximum at about 6 m (ca. 25 μM), and nitrate is generally low in all well samples. Uranium and molybdenum exhibit a minimum in the well profile at about the same location where barium exhibits a maximum (greater than 2 μM). When results are compared to the surface lagoon–seawater mixing data, ammonium, phosphate, silicate, and barium in well samples of similar salinity show considerable enrichment, while a comparison of uranium and molybdenum data indicates significant depletion of these metals in most well samples.Based on these and other data, we deduce that the following processes are active: products of remineralization of organic detritus accumulated in lagoon sediments are advected through permeable sediments to the oceans; dissolution of biogenic solids and/or solid silicates mobilizes silicate; phosphate, uranium, and molybdenum are mobilized from phosphate-rich sediment layers; sulfate reducers remove uranium and perhaps molybdenum from solution throughout most of the well profile; barium is desorbed from solids in the subterranean mixing zone. These results demonstrate that freshwater discharged to the ocean through permeable sediments may have a significantly different composition than that discharged at the surface.     

Mixing parameterizations in ocean climate modeling

Results of numerical experiments with an eddy-permitting ocean circulation model on the simulation of the climatic variability of the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean are analyzed. We compare the ocean simulation quality with using different subgrid mixing parameterizations. The circulation model is found to be sensitive to a mixing parametrization. The computation of viscosity and diffusivity coefficients by an original splitting algorithm of the evolution equations for turbulence characteristics is found to be as efficient as traditional Monin–Obukhov parameterizations. At the same time, however, the variability of ocean climate characteristics is simulated more adequately. The simulation of salinity fields in the entire study region improves most significantly. Turbulent processes have a large effect on the circulation in the long-term through changes in the density fields. The velocity fields in the Gulf Stream and in the entire North Atlantic Subpolar Cyclonic Gyre are reproduced more realistically. The surface level height in the Arctic Basin is simulated more faithfully, marking the Beaufort Gyre better. The use of the Prandtl number as a function of the Richardson number improves the quality of ocean modeling.     

FIO-ESM v2.0 CORE2-forced experiment for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project

We introduced the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Ocean Model Intercomparison Project CORE2-forced (OMIP-1) experiment by using the First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model version 2.0 (FIO-ESM v2.0), and comprehensively evaluated the simulation results. Unlike other OMIP models, FIO-ESM v2.0 includes a coupled ocean surface wave component model that takes into account non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing in the ocean and effect of surface wave Stokes drift on air-sea momentum and heat fluxes in the climate system. A sub-layer sea surface temperature (SST) diurnal cycle parameterization was also employed to take into account effect of SST diurnal cycle on air-sea heat ?uxes to improve simulations of air-sea interactions. Evaluations show that mean values and long-term trends of significant wave height were adequately reproduced in the FIO-ESM v2.0 OMIP-1 simulations, and there is a reasonable fit between the SST diurnal cycle obtained from in situ observations and that parameterized by FIO-ESM v2.0. Evaluations of model drift, temperature, salinity, mixed layer depth, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation show that the model performs well in the FIO-ESM v2.0 OMIP-1 simulation. However, the summer sea ice extent of the Arctic and Antarctic is underestimated.     

Surface salinity in the Atlantic Ocean (30°S–50°N)

Sea surface salinity (SSS) data in the Atlantic Ocean is investigated between 50°N and 30°S based on data collected mostly during the period 1977–2002. Monthly mapping of SSS is done to extract the large-scale variability. This mapped variability indicates fairly long (seasonal) time scales outside the equatorial region. The spatial scales of the seasonal anomalies are regional, but not basin-wide (typically 500–1000 km). These seasonal SSS anomalies are found to respond with a 1–2 month lag to freshwater flux anomalies at the air–sea interface or to the horizontal Ekman advection. This relation presents a seasonal cycle in the northern subtropics and north-east Atlantic indicating that the late-boreal spring/summer season is less active than the boreal winter/early-spring season in forcing the seasonal SSS variability. In the north-eastern mid-latitude Atlantic, SSS is positively correlated to SST, with SSS slightly lagging SST. There are noticeable long-lasting larger-scale signals overlaid on this regional variability. Part of it is related to known climate signals, for example ENSO and NAO. A linear trend is present during the first half of the period in some parts of the basin (usually towards increasing salinities, at least between 20°N and 45°N). Based on a linear regression analysis, these signals combined can locally represent up to 20% of SSS variance (in particular near 30°N/60°W or 40°N/10–30°W), but usually represent less than 10% of the variance.     

A Coupled Ice-Ocean Model in the Pan-Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean: Simulation of Seasonal Cycles

A coupled ice-ocean model is configured for the pan-Arctic and northern North Atlantic Ocean with a 27.5 km resolution. The model is driven by the daily atmospheric climatology averaged from the 40-year NCEP reanalysis (1958–1997). The ocean model is the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), while the sea ice model is based on a full thermodynamical and dynamical model with plastic-viscous rheology. A sea ice model with multiple categories of thickness is utilized. A systematic model-data comparison was conducted. This model reasonably reproduces seasonal cycles of both the sea ice and the ocean. Climatological sea ice areas derived from historical data are used to validate the ice model performance. The simulated sea ice cover reaches a maximum of 14 × 10⁶ km² in winter and a minimum of 6.7 × 10⁶ km² in summer. This is close to the 95-year climatology with a maximum of 13.3 × 10⁶ km² in winter and a minimum of 7 × 10⁶ km² in summer. The simulated general circulation in the Arctic Ocean, the GIN (Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian) seas, and northern North Atlantic Ocean are qualitatively consistent with historical mapping. It is found that the low winter salinity or freshwater in the Canada Basin tends to converge due to the strong anticyclonic atmospheric circulation that drives the anticyclonic ocean surface current, while low summer salinity or freshwater tends to spread inside the Arctic and exports out of the Arctic due to the relaxing wind field. It is also found that the warm, saline Atlantic Water has little seasonal variation, based on both simulation and observations. Seasonal cycles of temperature and salinity at several representative locations reveals regional features that characterize different water mass properties.     

Sensitivity of a global ocean model to increased run-off from Greenland

We study the reaction of a global ocean–sea ice model to an increase of fresh water input into the northern North Atlantic under different surface boundary conditions, ranging from simple restoring of surface salinity to the use of an energy balance model (EBM) for the atmosphere. The anomalous fresh water flux is distributed around Greenland, reflecting increased melting of the Greenland ice sheet and increasing fresh water export from the Arctic Ocean. Depending on the type of surface boundary condition, the large circulation reacts with a slow-down of overturning and gyre circulations. Restoring of the total or mean surface salinity prevents a large scale redistribution of the salinity field that is apparent under mixed boundary conditions and with the EBM. The control run under mixed boundary conditions exhibits large and unrealistic oscillations of the meridional overturning. Although the reaction to the fresh water flux anomaly is similar to the response with the EBM, mixed boundary conditions must thus be considered unreliable. With the EBM, the waters in the deep western boundary current initially become saltier and a new fresh water mass forms in the north-eastern North Atlantic in response to the fresh water flux anomaly around Greenland. After an accumulation period of several decades duration, this new North East Atlantic Intermediate Water spreads towards the western boundary and opens a new southward pathway at intermediate depths along the western boundary for the fresh waters of high northern latitudes.     

在大洋环流模型中对应于惯性内波破碎的垂直混合的一个参数化方案

Based on the theoretical spectral model of inertial internal wave breaking(fine structure) proposed previously, in which the effects of the horizontal Coriolis frequency component f-tilde on a potential isopycnal are taken into account, a parameterization scheme of vertical mixing in the stably stratified interior below the surface mixed layer in the ocean general circulation model(OGCM) is put forward preliminarily in this paper. Besides turbulence, the impact of sub-mesoscale oceanic processes(including inertial internal wave breaking product) on oceanic interior mixing is emphasized. We suggest that adding the inertial internal wave breaking mixing scheme(F-scheme for short) put forward in this paper to the turbulence mixing scheme of Canuto et al.( T-scheme for short) in the OGCM, except the region from 15°S to 15°N. The numerical results of F-scheme by using WOA09 data and an OGCM(LICOM, LASG/IAP climate system ocean model) over the global ocean are given. A notable improvement in the simulation of salinity and temperature over the global ocean is attained by using T-scheme adding F-scheme, especially in the mid- and high-latitude regions in the simulation of the intermediate water and deep water. We conjecture that the inertial internal wave breaking mixing and inertial forcing of wind might be one of important mechanisms maintaining the ventilation process. The modeling strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC) by using T-scheme adding F-scheme may be more reasonable than that by using T-scheme alone, though the physical processes need to be further studied, and the overflow parameterization needs to be incorporated. A shortcoming in F-scheme is that in this paper the error of simulated salinity and temperature by using T-scheme adding F-scheme is larger than that by using T-scheme alone in the subsurface layer.     

Distinguishing coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions from background noise in the North Pacific

When considering physical mechanisms for decadal-timescale climate variability in the North Pacific, it is useful to describe in detail the expected response of the ocean to the chaotic atmospheric forcing. The expected response to this white-noise forcing includes strongly enhanced power in the decadal frequency band relative to higher frequencies, pronounced changes in basin-wide climate that resemble regime shifts, preferred patterns of spatial variability, and a depth-dependent profile that includes variability with a standard deviation of 0.2–0.4°C over the top 50–100 m. Weak spectral peaks are also possible, given ocean dynamics. Detecting coupled ocean–atmosphere modes of variability in the real climate system is difficult against the spectral and spatial structure of this ‘null-hypothesis’ of how the ocean and atmosphere interact, especially given the impossibility of experimentally decoupling the ocean from the atmosphere. Turning to coupled ocean–atmosphere models to address this question, a method for identifying coupled modes by using models of increasing physical complexity is illustrated. It is found that a coupled ocean–atmosphere mode accounts for enhanced variability with a time scale of 20 years/cycle in the Kuroshio extension region of the model's North Pacific. The observed Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has many similarities to the expected noise-forced response and few similarities to the model's coupled ocean–atmosphere variability. However, model deficiencies and some analyses of observations by other workers indicate that the possibility that part of the PDO arises from a coupled ocean–atmosphere mode cannot be ruled out.     

Reactive mercury in the eastern North Atlantic and southeast Atlantic

The vertical distribution of reactive mercury has been measured at two stations in the eastern North Atlantic and one station in the southeast Atlantic in conjunction with the IOC Open Ocean Baseline Survey. The average concentrations of reactive Hg in vertical profiles ranged from 0.70 to 1.07 pM with the highest values found at the northeast Atlantic stations and the lowest at the southeast station. No significant concentration gradients were found below the surface mixed layer at the two stations in the eastern North Atlantic. At station 7, in the southeast Atlantic, an increase in reactive Hg was noted in the water adjacent to the mixed layer (35–200 m) which was coincident with an oxygen depletion, down to 20% saturation at 200 m. The concentration of reactive Hg in the North Atlantic Deep Water (0.48–1.34 pM), the Antarctic Intermediate Water (0.47 pM), the Antarctic Bottom Water (0.67–1.25 pM), and the Mediterranean Outflow Water (0.83–1.06 pM) were noted. The trends in Hg concentration in the water masses between stations showed the concentration decreasing with distance from the water mass source except for Hg in the Antarctic Bottom Water. The increase noted in this water mass was attributed to mixing with North Atlantic Deep Water and or release from bottom sediments.     

气候变化对东北大西洋渔获物组成、多样性和营养级的影响

东北大西洋是世界上重要的捕捞海域，气候变化对该海域捕捞产生了重要的影响。本文基于联合国粮农组织所提供的1982?2016年东北大西洋渔获产量数据，对该海域渔获物组成、多样性、平均营养级及主成分变化特征进行时间序列上的分析，并结合东北大西洋海域气候、环境因子，应用广义可加模型探究渔获物组成与气候变化之间的关系。结果显示:渔获物多样性的变化总体上呈下降趋势，2002?2010年间处于较低水平；平均营养级在2002年之前呈平缓下降的趋势，2002年之后开始波动上升，相关性分析表明这两个指标与海域环境因子的变化较为相关。对渔获物组成进行主成分分析显示，第一主成份变化的方差解释率达到35.3%，且与海域气候、环境因素有较高的相关性，第一主成分变化能够较好地表征气候影响下渔获物组成变化的情况。广义可加模型分析结果显示，渔获物组成变化的影响因素按解释率由高到低分别为:海表温度、海平面高度、盐度、海冰和北大西洋涛动指数。该研究有助于认识气候变化对海洋渔业资源及其结构组成的影响。     

大西洋经向翻转环流对岁差响应的气候背景依赖性

大西洋经向翻转环流（Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation,AMOC）是气候系统重要的组成部分,其强度变化可直接影响南北半球的热量分配,厘清其变化机理对全球变暖背景下的未来预估至关重要。海洋沉积物记录发现,在晚更新世,AMOC的变化与地球岁差周期有紧密联系,但其物理机理尚不清楚。本文利用海洋?大气耦合气候模型—COSMOS（ECHAM5/JSBACH/MPIOM）模型,通过敏感试验,分析在冰盛期冷期和间冰期暖期气候背景下,AMOC对地球岁差变化的响应机理。结果表明:岁差降低引起的北半球夏季太阳辐射增强,会导致间冰期暖期背景下的AMOC显著减弱,但对冰盛期AMOC的影响并不明显。通过进一步分析发现,在间冰期暖期,夏季太阳辐射增强,造成高低纬大西洋海表的升温,同时促进北大西洋高纬度地区的局地降水,两者导致北大西洋表层海水密度降低,共同削弱大西洋深层水生成。而在冰盛期冷期,大西洋高低纬度地区的响应对AMOC的影响反向—副热带升温触发的海盆尺度低压异常,通过其南侧的西风异常削弱大西洋向太平洋的水汽输送,导致净降水增多,海表盐度下降;同时,高纬度升温造成的海冰减少,促进了海洋热丧失,海表失热变重,有利于大西洋深层水的生成,最终两者的共同作用导致AMOC对岁差变化的响应偏弱。本文系统揭示了不同气候背景下,岁差尺度AMOC变化的控制机理,对理解晚更新世AMOC重建记录中持续存在的岁差周期具有重要启示意义。     

Geographic distribution of the diapycnal component of thermohaline circulations in coupled climate models

Data archives from four global coupled ocean–atmosphere models are used to construct maps of diapycnal mass flux through selected isopycnal surfaces in the model oceans. The maps illustrate location and strength of the up and downwelling limbs of thermohaline-forced overturning loops whose stability in the face of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations is of major concern in century-scale climate prediction. The up and downwelling limbs simulated by the four models for present-day greenhouse gas concentrations are compared with observational estimates. Predicted changes in the overturning brought about by gradually rising atmospheric CO₂ content are compared model-to-model. While all four models predict some decline in the rate of Atlantic overturning during CO₂-induced global warming, the geographic layout of the overturning circulations in each model is found to be insensitive to the changing climate.     

Pacific subtropical cell variability in coupled climate model simulations of the late 19th–20th century

Observational studies of the Pacific basin since the 1950s have demonstrated that a decrease (increase) in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is significantly correlated with a spin-up (slow-down) of the Pacific Subtropical Cells (STCs). STCs are shallow wind-driven overturning circulations that provide a pathway by which extratropical atmospheric variability can impact the equatorial Pacific thermocline and, through upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, tropical Pacific SSTs. Recent studies have shown that this observed relationship between SSTs and STCs is absent in coupled climate model simulations of the late 19th–20th centuries. In this paper we investigate what causes this relationship to breakdown and to what extent this limits the models’ ability to simulate observed climate change in the equatorial Pacific since the late 19th century. To provide insight into these questions we first show that the NCAR Community Climate System Model’s simulation of observed climate change since the 1970s has a robust signal in the equatorial Pacific that bears a close resemblance to observations. Strikingly, absent is a robust signal in the equatorial thermocline. Our results suggest that the coupled model may be reproducing the observed local ocean response to changes in forcing but inadequately reproducing the remote STC-forcing of the tropical Pacific due to the underestimate of extratropical winds that force these ocean circulations. These conclusions are found to be valid in five different coupled climate model simulations of the late 19th–20th centuries (CCSM3, GISS EH, GFDL CM2.1, CSIRO-Mk3, and HadCM3).