Modelling the regional effects of climate change on air quality

The life cycle of pollutants is affected by chemical as well as meteorological factors, such as wind, temperature, precipitation, solar radiation. Therefore, climatic changes induced by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases may be expected to have significant effects on air quality. Because of the spatial variability of the pollutant emissions and climate-change signals, these effects are particularly relevant at the regional to local scales. This paper first briefly reviews modelling tools and methodologies used to study regional climate-change impacts on air quality. Patterns of regional precipitation, temperature, and sea-level changes emerging from the latest set of general circulation model projections are then discussed. Finally, the specific case of climate-change effects on summer ozone concentrations over Europe is presented to illustrate the potential impacts of climate change on pollutant amounts. It is concluded that climate change is an important factor that needs to be taken into account when designing future pollution-reduction policies.     

Nested regional climate–chemistry simulations for central Europe

The potential impact of global climate change on regional meteorology and near-surface ozone concentrations in central Europe and the effect of model resolution on the simulated quantities were studied using a coupled climate–chemistry model. Nested simulations with a horizontal resolution of 60 km for Europe and 20 km for central Europe were performed for two time slices of about 10 years representing present-day and future climate conditions. The model results indicate that increased solar radiation due to decreased cloud cover, higher temperatures, and enhanced isoprene emissions promote the formation of tropospheric ozone in central Europe under future climate conditions. Depending on the region, the increase of the mean daily maximum ranges between 2 and 10 ppb and exceedances of the threshold of 60 ppb for the 8-hourly mean as well as the AOT40 index were found to increase considerably. General tendencies in the regional distributions of near-surface ozone were similar for 60- and 20-km resolutions. However, pronounced regional differences were found for some regions due to stronger smoothing of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions as well as flattened topography for the 60-km resolution.     

Impacts of Indian summer monsoon and stratospheric intrusion on air pollutants in the inland Tibetan Plateau

Air pollutants can be transported to the pristine regions such as the Tibetan Plateau,by monsoon and stratospheric intrusion.The Tibetan Plateau region has limited local anthropogenic emissions,while this region is influenced strongly by transport of heavy emissions mainly from South Asia.We conducted a comprehensive study on various air pollutants(PM2.5,total gaseous mercury,and surface ozone)at Nam Co Station in the inland Tibetan Plateau.Monthly mean PM2.5 concentration at Nam Co peaked in April before monsoon season,and decreased during the whole monsoon season(June-September).Monthly mean total gaseous mercury concentrations at Nam Co peaked in July and were in high levels during monsoon season.The Indian summer monsoon acted as a facilitator for transporting gaseous pol-lutants(total gaseous mercury)but a suppressor for particulate pollutants(PM2.5)during the monsoon season.Different from both PM2.5 and total gaseous mercury variabilities,surface ozone concentrations at Nam Co are primarily attributed to stratospheric intrusion of ozone and peaked in May.The effects of the Indian summer monsoon and stratospheric intrusion on air pollutants in the inland Tibetan Plateau are complex and require further studies.     

Research Progress on the Impact of Urbanization on Climate Change

The world has been undergoing a remarkable process of urbanization, especially in developing countries in recent years. The urbanization process has brought about great urban development and large population agglomeration, changes in production and lifestyle, and man-made disturbances such as greenhouse gas and pollution emissions. As the global urbanization process continues to advance, its impact on climate change continues to strengthen significantly. This paper mainly reviewed and summarized relevant researches from two aspects: the influence of urbanization on climate change and the mechanism of influence of urbanization on climate change. Urbanization causes regional warming and urban heat island effect, extreme events such as high temperature, heat wave and heavy rainfall increase in frequency, and also leads to increased urban flood risk. The increase of pollutant emission in the process of urbanization is the main cause of air quality deterioration. Urbanization also has an indirect impact on air quality by changing urban climate. Urbanization has an important impact on climatic factors such as relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine and cloud cover. The impacts of urbanization on climate change are mainly realized through underlying surface changes, greenhouse gas and pollution emissions, anthropogenic heat emissions and urban high heat capacity. Urbanization not only directly affects the regional/local climate, but also indirectly affects the regional/local climate by promoting global climate change. Therefore, the impact of urbanization on climate change has a global and regional multi-scale superposition effect.     

Future ozone in a changing climate

The stratospheric ozone layer is expected to recover as a result of the regulations of the Montreal Protocol on chlorine and bromine containing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Model simulations project a return of global annually averaged total column ozone to 1980 levels before the middle of the 21^st century, well before the ODSs will return to 1980 levels. This earlier ozone return date is due to the effects of rising greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. GHGs influence ozone directly by chemical reactions, but also indirectly by changing stratospheric temperature and the Brewer–Dobson circulation. Based on projections of chemistry–climate models, this article summarizes the effects of GHGs on stratospheric and total column ozone in the mid-latitude upper stratosphere, Arctic and Antarctic spring, and the tropics. The sensitivity of future ozone change to the GHG scenario is discussed, as well as the specific role of a future increase in nitrous oxide and methane.     

Aromatic volatile organic compounds and their role in ground-level ozone formation in Russia

This paper reports proton mass spectrometry data on aromatic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) (benzene, toluene, phenol, styrene, xylene, and propylbenzene) obtained in different Russian regions along the Trans-Siberian Railway from Moscow to Vladivostok, based on expedition data retrieved using the TRO-ICA-12 mobile laboratory in the summer of 2008. The contribution of aromatic VOCs to ozone formation in the cities and regions along the measurement route has been estimated quantitatively. The greatest contribution of aromatic VOCs to ozone formation is characteristic of large cities along the Trans-Siberian Railway (up to 7.5 ppbv O₃) specified by the highest concentrations of aromatic VOCs (1–1.7 ppbv) and nitrogen oxides (>20 ppbv). The results obtained are indicative of a considerable contribution (30–50%) of anthropogenic emissions of VOCs to photochemical ozone generation in the large cities along the Trans-Siberian Railway in hot and dry weather against the background of a powerful natural factor such as isoprene emissions controlling the regional balance of ground-level ozone in warm seasons.

     

大火历史及其与古气候关系研究

火广泛地存在于自然界和人类社会中,并在现代生态系统的形成过程中扮演了重要角色。沉积物中的元素碳记录了大火发生的历史,对之进行定量分析可得到大火频率的长期记录,分析方法包括显微镜观察和化学氧化处理。化学方法通常是用HCl-HF酸溶解碳酸盐及硅酸盐,再通过氧化反应去除有机物。几种沉积相中大火历史研究实例表明,大火改变了植被格局,进而影响区域气候;燃烧排放的气体和颗粒对大气化学性质也产生重大影响。     

Emission of carbon-bearing gases and aerosols from natural fires on the territory of Russia based on space monitoring

The results of the space monitoring of natural fires during the period 2010–2014 to estimate the areas destroyed by fire, volumes of the emissions of greenhouse gases, and fine particulate aerosols over the entire territory of Russia and its individual regions are presented. The methods of research, the regularities of the seasonal recurrence of fires distinguished in different regions, as well as the peculiarities of emissions of small gas components and aerosols in different months are described.     

Intensification of future heat waves in Pakistan: a study using CORDEX regional climate models ensemble

Future trends in the occurrence of heat waves (HW) over Pakistan have been presented using three regional climate models (RCMs), forced by three different global climate models (GCMs) runs under RCP8.5 scenarios. The results of RCMs are obtained from CORDEX (Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment) database. Two different approaches for the assessment of HWs are defined, namely Fixed and Relative approaches. Fixed approach is defined for a life-threatening extreme event in which the temperature can reach more than 45 °C for a continuous stretch of several days; however, Relative approach events may not be directly life-threatening, but may cause snow/ice melt flooding and impact on food security of the country in summer and winter seasons, respectively. The results indicate a consistent increase in the occurrence of HWs for both approaches. For the Fixed approach, the increase is evident in the eastern areas of Pakistan, particularly plains of Punjab and Sindh provinces which host many big cities of the country. It is argued that the effect of HWs may also be exacerbated in future due to urban heat island effect. Moreover, summer time HWs for Relative approach is most likely to increase over northern areas of the country which hosts reservoirs of snow and glacier, which may result in events like glacial lake outburst flood and snow/ice melt flooding. Furthermore, the increase in winter time HWs for Relative approach may affect negatively on the wheat production, which in turn can distress the overall food productivity and livelihoods of the country. It is concluded that this study may be a useful document for future planning in order to better adapt to these threats due to climate change.     

Relationships between organically bound Cu and Mn in settling particulate matter and biological processes in a subarctic estuary

Plankton studies in Kachemak Bay, Alaska were combined with short-term sediment trap deployments in order to show the relationships of fluxes of Cu and Mn in organic particulate matter with biological processes occurring in the overlying water column. A large spring bloom decrease throughout the summer, due to decreasing nutrient levels and increasing grazing pressure by zooplankton. The concentration of organically bound Cu and Mn in the sediment trap particulate material increased throughout the summer reaching a maximum in August while fecal pellet production exhibited a similar increase. The fluxes of total particulate matter and organic carbon reached a maximum in June and represented a 30% increase over the corresponding fluxes in May. In contrast, the fluxes of organically bound Cu and Mn and fecal pellets in August represented 200%, 360% and 760% increases, respectively, over their respective fluxes in May. These results suggest that the enrichment of Cu and Mn in the organic particulate matter during August was a result of bioaccumulation of these metals into fecal material. The increase in the flux of the organically bound metals indicates a strong coupling between biological processes in the water column and their vertical transport. Thus, the production and subsequent sinking of fecal pellets may govern the transport of trace metals to the underlying water column and may also govern the transfer of a primary source of food and its associated trace metals to benthic communities.     

Importance of climate,forest fires and human population size in the Holocene boreal forest composition change in northern Europe

The relative importance of climate, forest fires and human population size on long‐term boreal forest composition were statistically investigated at regional and local scales in Fennoscandia. We employ pollen data from lakes, reflecting regional vegetation, and small forest hollows, reflecting local vegetation, from Russia, Finland and Sweden to reconstruct the long‐term forest composition. As potential drivers of the Holocene forest dynamics we consider climate, generated from a climate model and oxygen isotope data, past forest fires generated from sedimentary charcoal data and human population size derived from radiocarbon dated archaeological findings. We apply the statistical method of variation partitioning to assess the relative importance of these environmental variables on long‐term boreal forest composition. The results show that climate is the main driver of the changes in Holocene boreal forest composition at the regional scale. However, at the local scale the role of climate is relatively small. In general, the importance of forest fires is low both at regional and local scales. The fact that both climate and forest fires explain relatively small proportions of variation in long‐term boreal vegetation in small forest hollow records demonstrates the complexity of factors affecting stand‐scale forest dynamics. The relative importance of human population size was low in both the prehistorical and the historical time periods. However, this is the first time that this type of data has been used to statistically assess the importance of human population size on boreal vegetation and the spatial representativeness of the data may cause bias to the analysis.     

南水北调大面积农业灌溉的区域气候效应研究

基于社会经济学模型对中国未来不同社会经济发展情景下土地利用变化的预测资料,利用区域气候模式RegCM3,重点研究了南水北调工程建成后,对中国北方13个省(区)范围内农田、农林混作区和草地等进行大面积灌溉所产生的区域气候效应。结果显示:大面积农业灌溉对中国区域气候影响明显,主要受灌区及其邻近地区土壤湿度、近地层空气湿度、总云量、潜热通量、降水量等均呈增加趋势,地表温度、感热通量及500 hPa位势高度将降低。灌溉后受灌区土壤湿度的增加,不仅使受灌区气候环境发生变化,还通过动量、热量及水汽交换对邻近地区气候产生影响。     

Geochemical characteristics of particulate matter in the atmosphere surrounding a ceramic industrialized area

Total suspended particulate samples (TSP) were collected and concentrations measured during seventeen months in the vicinity of a ceramic industrial area. A method of fractionating was applied to the samples in order to obtain two fractions corresponding to mineral particulate coming from dust emissions (Upper-F fraction) and to amorphous matter (carbon plus small amounts of S, Ca, Fe, etc) coming mainly from traffic and other combustion processes. Also for TSP samples several element concentrations were measured following two previous treatments: extraction of elements mainly associated with the soluble fraction of the samples (B, Fe, P, As, NO^2–, NH⁴⁺, Cl^–, F) and acid digestion for trace metals and elements mainly associated with the non-soluble fractions of the samples (Fe, As, Cd, Ni, Pb, Zn Ca). Seasonal differences and the influence of meteorological parameters (temperature, relative humidity, pressure and wind conditions) on the air pollution levels, particles as well as ions, were studied.Results show different seasonal and weekly evolution for mineral and amorphous carbonaceous particles because of the different origins in dust emissions or combustion processes respectively, and the different physical properties such as size grain. Of the ions analyzed Fe, Ca and Zn were clearly associated to mineral phases and consequently related to dust emissions, and NO^2–, NH4+, P, Cl^– were related to amorphous matter coming from combustion. Ni and Cd show lower levels than those reported as guideline values and the source is mainly related to the enrichment of these elements in clay materials. B and As content result in elevated concentrations, with the tendency to increase during cold months. The emission of these elements was associated with vaporization or volatilization during high temperature ceramic processes. The original gaseous state is influenced by temperature. In the winter the content for B and As is higher due to enhanced condensation of gas-phase boron onto particles, while in the summer the increase of air temperature results in elevated evaporation.     

大气颗粒物理化特征和影响效应的研究进展及展望

大气颗粒物,尤其是细颗粒物PM_2.5,是有毒和有害物质的载体,对人体健康具有重要的影响,同时大气颗粒物具有吸湿性、光学吸收和散射能力以及云凝结核活性等,对环境和气候变化具有重要的作用,大气颗粒物进一步的长距离输送还会对区域和全球地球化学循环产生重要影响.总结了当前大气颗粒物的物理化学特征研究进展,分析了离线和在线分析技术在大气颗粒物主要组分检测中的应用,阐述了大气颗粒物源解析技术的应用现状,以及由于大气颗粒物污染对环境、气候、人体健康和地球化学循环等产生的影响,最后展望未来大气颗粒物研究的重点问题.      

Particulate matter dispersion and haze occurrence potential studies at a local palm oil mill

The emissions from palm oil industry through incineration and open burning are the major sources of air pollutions contribution in Malaysia. The consequence of increasing the particulate concentration, the particulate matter dissolves with vapour and grows into droplets when the humidity exceeds approximately 70% and causing opaque situation known as haze. This work focuses on the dispersion particulate matter from palm oil mill. Gaussian Plume Model from a point source, subject to various atmospheric conditions is used to calculate particulate matter concentration then display the distribution of plume dispersion using geographic information system. Atmospheric Stability, mixing height, wind direction, wind speed, natural and artificial features play an important role in dispersion process. Study on the dispersion of particulate matters and the haze potential are presented as a case study in this paper. The data obtained will be served as the purpose of modeling the transport of particulate matter for obtaining permits and prevention of significant deterioration to the environment.     

The role and performance of ground-based networks in tracking the evolution of the ozone layer

In the 1980s, ground-based monitoring of the ozone layer played a key role in the discovery of the Antarctic Ozone Hole as well as in the first documentation of significant winter and spring long-term downward trends in the populated mid-latitude regions. The article summarizes the close-to-hundred-year-long history of ground-based measurements of stratospheric ozone, and more recent observations of constituents that influence its equilibrium. Ozone observations began long before the recognition of the impact of increasing emissions of manmade ozone-depleting substances on ozone and therefore on UV levels, human health, ecosystems and the Earth climate. The historical ozone observations prior to 1980s are used as a reference for the assessments of the state of the ozone layer linked to the enforcement of the Montreal Protocol. In this paper, we describe the worldwide monitoring networks and their ozone observations used to determine long-term trends with an accuracy of a few percent per decade. Since 1989, the ground-based monitoring activities have provided support for the amendments of the Montreal Protocol (MP). They include monitoring of (a) the ozone total column and the vertical distribution at global scale, (b) the ozone-depleting substances (ODS) related to the MP such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and their decomposition products in the stratosphere, and (c) the atmospheric species playing a role in ozone depletion, e.g., nitrogen oxides, water vapor, aerosols, polar stratospheric clouds. We highlight important accomplishments in the atmospheric monitoring performed by the Global Atmosphere Watch program (GAW) run under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). We also address the complementary roles of ground-based networks and satellite instruments. High-quality ground-based measurements have been used to evaluate ozone variabilities and long-term trends, assess chemistry climate models, and check the long-term stability of satellite data, including more recently the merged satellite time-series developed for the detection of ozone recovery at global scale, which might be further modified by climate change.     

安徽省大气颗粒物污染特征分析

对2016年全年颗粒物监测浓度数据进行统计分析,得到了安徽省颗粒物污染的空间分布、浓度和粒径,以及污染传输特征。结果表明,淮河以北、沿江和江淮之间、长江以南和皖南山区城市颗粒物污染随地理位置不同表现出明显的区域化特征,污染程度由北向南减轻,污染过程明显表现出由北向南逐步扩散传输的规律,污染程度越重,污染深入南方的范围越广,持续时间也越长。冬季污染较重的城市,上午出现明显的高浓度时段,全天变化为“双峰双谷”型。夏、秋季节夜间细颗粒物(PM2.5)浓度贡献比增加。PM2.5与PM10(可吸入颗粒物)质量浓度比值冬季最高,春季较低。污染重的城市冬季PM2.5占比高。     

Monitoring of fire incidences in vegetation types and Protected Areas of India: Implications on carbon emissions

Carbon emissions released from forest fires have been identified as an environmental issue in the context of global warming. This study provides data on spatial and temporal patterns of fire incidences, burnt area and carbon emissions covering natural vegetation types (forest, scrub and grassland) and Protected Areas of India. The total area affected by fire in the forest, scrub and grasslands have been estimated as 48765.45, 6540.97 and 1821.33 km ², respectively, in 2014 using Resourcesat-2 AWiFS data. The total CO ₂ emissions from fires of these vegetation types in India were estimated to be 98.11 Tg during 2014. The highest emissions were caused by dry deciduous forests, followed by moist deciduous forests. The fire season typically occurs in February, March, April and May in different parts of India. Monthly CO ₂ emissions from fires for different vegetation types have been calculated for February, March, April and May and estimated as 2.26, 33.53, 32.15 and 30.17 Tg, respectively. Protected Areas represent 11.46% of the total natural vegetation cover of India. Analysis of fire occurrences over a 10-year period with two types of sensor data, i.e., AWiFS and MODIS, have found fires in 281 (out of 614) Protected Areas of India. About 16.78 Tg of CO ₂ emissions were estimated in Protected Areas in 2014. The natural vegetation types of Protected Areas have contributed for burnt area of 17.3% and CO ₂ emissions of 17.1% as compared to total natural vegetation burnt area and emissions in India in 2014. 9.4% of the total vegetation in the Protected Areas was burnt in 2014. Our results suggest that Protected Areas have to be considered for strict fire management as an effective strategy for mitigating climate change and biodiversity conservation.     

Relative impacts of worldwide tropospheric ozone changes and regional emission modifications on European surface-ozone levels

Multi-scale models were applied to assess the surface ozone changes in 2030. Several emission scenarios are considered, ranging from (a) a pessimistic anthropogenic emission increase to (b) an optimistic decrease of emissions, and including (c) a realistic scenario that assumes the implementation of control legislations [CLE]. The two extreme scenarios lead respectively to homogeneous global increase and decrease of surface ozone, whereas low and inhomogeneous changes associated with a slight global increase of ozone are found for the CLE scenario. Over western Europe, for the CLE scenario, the benefit of European emission reduction is significantly counterbalanced by increasing global ozone levels. Considering warmer conditions over Europe and future emission modifications, the human health exposure to surface ozone is found to be significantly worsened.     

Holocene colluvial chronology in a sub‐arctic esker landscape at Kuttanen,Finnish Lapland: kettleholes as geo‐ecological archives of interactions amongst fire,vegetation, soil,climate and geomorphological instability

Excavations were made in the colluvial deposits of seven kettleholes in a sandy esker at Kuttanen, northwestern Finnish Lapland. The Holocene history of forest fires and the associated colluvial activity initiated on the slopes of the kettleholes were reconstructed based on 131 radiocarbon dates from charcoal layers. These dates were supplemented by luminescence dating of colluvial sand layers. The first forest fires occurred ～9000 years ago following the immigration of Pinus sylvestris about 1000 years after deglaciation. Evidence of forest fires and colluvial activity increased with the density of the pine forest, reaching a maximum during the Holocene Thermal Maximum between ～8000 and 4000 cal. a BP, declining thereafter to a minimum in the last ～500 years. This multimillennial‐scale pattern corresponds with forest fires being triggered by lightning strikes during the warmest summer weather of the Holocene, which also produced heavy rain and slope wash from convective storms. The 50 forest fires identified over the Holocene indicate a long cycle in fire frequency of 1 in ～200 years, which appears to reflect the average successional recovery time of the forest. Complex interactions amongst vegetation, fire and climate may account for little or no association between 23 centennial‐ to millennial‐scale clusters of forest fires/colluvial events and Holocene temperature or precipitation anomalies. Buried podzols indicate five phases of soil formation and hence low levels of landscape disturbance. The kettleholes and their colluvial deposits therefore provide a unique geo‐ecological archive that has led to new insights into the geo‐ecological interactions that affect environmental change in the sub‐arctic landscape.