全球季风和季风边缘研究

全球卫星探测和观测资料的积累,使以南海季风、亚洲季风为代表的季风研究兴起了一波研究热潮。区域季风认识的深入,推动了全球季风认识的发展,全球季风概念在20世纪末被提出来,并在21世纪初成为热点研究方向。季风边缘是与全球季风密切相关的概念,东亚夏季风北边缘的近期演变与全球季风过去几十年的减弱有关。全球季风的演变表现为分布全球的大气活动中心和季风槽的活动,[JP2]这些成员组成了一个完整的全球季风系统。按照上述季风研究的发展脉络,系统地总结全球季风和季风边缘研究的进展,并提出未来季风研究的方向会把全球大气活动中心与全球气候槽,包括全球季风槽联系起来,即从季风系统着手研究全球季风的年代际和世纪尺度变率。     

Changes in Global Monsoon Circulations Since 1950

We examined changes in several independent intensity indices of four majortropical monsoonal circulations for the period 1950–1998. Theseintensity indices included observed land surface precipitation andobserved ocean surface pressure in the monsoon regions aswell as upper-level divergence calculated at severalstandard levels from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis. These values wereaveraged seasonally over appropriate regions of southeastern Asian, western Africa, eastern Africa and the Australia/Maritime continent and adjacent ocean areas. Asa consistency check we also examined two secondary indices: mean sea level pressure trends and low level convergence both from theNCEP reanalysis.We find that in each of the four regions examined, a consistentpicture emerges indicating significantly diminished monsoonalcirculations over the period of record, evidence of diminished spatialmaxima in the global hydrological cycle since 1950. Trends since 1979,the period of strongest reported surface warming, do not indicate any change inmonsoon circulations. When strong ENSO years are removed from each of the time series the trends still show a general, significant reduction of monsoon intensity indicating that ENSO variability is not the direct cause for the observed weakening.Most previously reported model simulations of theeffects of rising CO₂ show an increase in monsoonal activity withrising global surface temperature. We find no support in these datafor an increasing hydrological cycle or increasing extremes as hypothesized bygreenhouse warming scenarios.     

Monsoon as a cause of radiolarite in the Tethyan realm

The radiolaritic facies (red/green cherts with radiolarians) is a very characteristic feature of the Tethyan realm. For a long time, its presence has been interpreted as a consequence of depth of an oceanic environment. It is now preferable to consider it as high productivity sediment. We here underline the interpretation inferring the role of monsoons for such productivity according to the relative position of lands at that time.     

Geomorphic Effects of Monsoon Floods on Indian Rivers

The southwest summer monsoon contributesthe bulk of India's rainfall. Consequently,almost all the geomorphic work by the rivers is carried out during the monsoonseason in general and the monsoon floods in particular. Indian rivers arecharacterized by high average flood discharges and large temporal variability. Thereis also significant spatial variation in the magnitude, frequency and power of floods, on account of regional variations in monsoon rainfall, basin characteristics andchannel geometry. As a result, the channel responses and the geomorphic effects also varyspatially. This paper describes the hydrological and geomorphological aspects, as well asthe geomorphic effects of monsoon floods in the Indian rivers. The geomorphic effects of floods are most impressive only in certainareas – the Himalaya, the Thar Desert, and the Indus-Ganga-Brahmaputra Plains. There are numerous instances of flood-induced changes in the channel dimension,position and pattern in these areas. In the Ganga-Brahmaputra Plains, the annualfloods appear to be geomorphologically more effective than the occasional large floods.In comparison, the rivers of the Indian Peninsula are, by and large, stable and thegeomorphic effects of floods are modest. Only large-magnitude floods that occur at aninterval of several years to decades are competent to modify the channel morphology in asignificant way. A synthesis of the various case studies available from the Indianregion indicates that often the absolute magnitude of a flood is not as important withrespect to the geomorphic effects as the flow stress and competence.     

Monsoon rainfall and its variability in Godavari river basin

Rainfall variability over a river basin has greater impact on the water resource in that basin. With this in view, the variability of the monsoon rainfall over the Godavari river basin has been studied on different time scales. As expected, the monsoon rainfall in Godavari basin is more variable (17%) than the all-India monsoon rainfall (11%) during the period of study (1951–90). Similarly, inter-annual variability of the monsoon rainfall on smaller time scales is found to be still higher and increases while going on from seasonal to daily scales. An interesting observation is that the intra-seasonal variability of the monsoon rainfall has a significant negative relationship (CC= −0.53) with the total seasonal rainfall in the basin.     

Study on Summer Monsoon Transition Zone and Its Land-Air Interaction

The Summer Monsoon Transition Zone is a typical area, which is a transitional zone and has a fragile ecological environment. The area also has the most serious drought and soil erosion disaster. Its land-air interaction plays an important role on evolution of weather and climate, and research on land-air interaction in this zone is an important scientific problems. Therefore, a key project, “land-air interaction of the typical summer monsoon transition zone and its response to the summer monsoon”, by National Natural Science Foundation of China aims at this problem. This study summarized the advances about current summer monsoon transition zone and its land-air interaction. Then, based on the characteristics of summer monsoon activities, the formation of this typical area, its advances of climate and environment characteristics were concluded. Peculiarity of land-air interaction in the area was also analyzed comprehensively. Furthermore, the main problems and direction of scientific research in this field are brought forward. It will have scientific guiding significance for in-depth study of land-air interaction in summer monsoon transition zone in future.     

Analysis of Rainfall Over Different Homogeneous Regions of India in Relation to Variability in Westward Movement Frequency of Monsoon Depressions

Between 1941 and 2002 there has been a decreasing trend in the frequency of monsoon disturbances (MDs) during the summer monsoon season (June–September). This downwards trend is significant at the 99.9% level for the main monsoon phase (July–August) and the withdrawal phase (September); however, it is not significant during the onset phase (June). The variability in rainfall over the homogeneous regions of India on the sub-seasonal scale also shows a significant decreasing trend with respect to the amount of rainfall over Northwest India (NWI) and Central India (CEI) during all three phases of the monsoon. Meteorological observations reveal that there has been an eastward shift of the rainfall belt with time over the Indian region on the seasonal scale and that this shift is more prominent during the withdrawal phase. This decreasing trend in MDs together with its restricted westerly movement seem to be directly related to the decreasing trend in rainfall over CEI during both the main monsoon and withdrawal phases and over NWI during the withdrawal phase. The low-level circulation anomalies observed during two periods (period-I: 1951–1976; period-ii: 1977–2002) are in accordance with the changes in rainfall distribution, with comparatively more (less) rainfall falling over NWI, CEI and Southern Peninsular India (SPI) during period-I (period-ii), and are accompanied by a stronger (weaker) monsoon circulation embedded with an anomalous cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation over CEI during the main monsoon and withdrawal phases. During the onset phase, completely opposite circulation anomalies are observed during both periods, and these are associated with more (less) rainfall over NWI, CEI and SPI during period-ii (period-I).     

Monsoon control on trace metal fluxes in the deep Arabian Sea

Particulate fluxes of aluminium, iron, magnesium and titanium were measured using six time-series sediment traps deployed in the eastern, central and western Arabian Sea. Annual Al fluxes at shallow and deep trap depths were 0.47 and 0.46 g m^-2 in the western Arabian Sea, and 0.33 and 0.47 g m^-2 in the eastern Arabian Sea. There is a difference of about 0.9–1.8 g m^-2y^-1 in the lithogenic fluxes determined analytically (residue remaining after leaching out all biogenic particles) and estimated from the Al fluxes in the western Arabian Sea. This arises due to higher fluxes of Mg (as dolomite) in the western Arabian Sea (6–11 times higher than the eastern Arabian Sea). The estimated dolomite fluxes at the western Arabian Sea site range from 0.9 to 1.35gm^-2y^-1. Fe fluxes in the Arabian Sea were less than that of the reported atmospheric fluxes without any evidence for the presence of labile fraction/excess of Fe in the settling particles. More than 75% of Al, Fe, Ti and Mg fluxes occurred during the southwest (SW) monsoon in the western Arabian Sea. In the eastern Arabian Sea, peak Al, Fe, Mg and Ti fluxes were recorded during both the northeast (NE) and SW monsoons. During the SW monsoon, there exists a time lag of around one month between the increases in lithogenic and dolomite fluxes. Total lithogenic fluxes increase when the southern branch of dust bearing northwesterlies is dragged by the SW monsoon winds to the trap locations. However, the dolomite fluxes increase only when the northern branch of the northwesterlies (which carries a huge amount of dolomite accounting 60% of the total dust load) is dragged, from further north, by SW monsoon winds. The potential for the use of Mg/Fe ratio as a paleo-monsoonal proxy is examined.     

Dynamic Relationship Between Entrainment Rate and Summer Monsoon in the Transition Area of Monsoon in the East of Northwest China

Entrainment rate refers to the ratio of surrounding air quality to air quality involved in rising unit distance, including turbulent entrainment and dynamic entrainment, which are applied to the boundary layer parametrization of convective clouds, the improvement of numerical model, the observation of cloud droplet spectral dispersion and the study of tropical cyclones.Based on the daily data at 07:00 and 19:00 every 10 m of five stations such as Minqin, Yuchong, Pingliang, Yinchuan and Yan'an from May to September during 2006-2016, combined with the daily observation data on the ground, the Entrainment Rates(ER) of different heights were calculated, and the relationships between ER and height in different regions, precipitation as well as monsoon during the monsoon period were further obtained. The main results were as follows:\mathrm{①} The ER was proportional to air temperature and saturated water vapor pressure, but inversely proportional to relative humidity. The relative humidity threshold of cloud was 65%. The higher the relative humidity threshold was, the lower the cloud height of different orders of precipitation was, and the cloud height was higher with the increase of rainfall. \mathrm{②}ER had obvious diurnal changes and regional differences: It was obviously smaller at 07:00 than at 19:00 from ground to 3 km, which weakened with the increase of height in the near surface , but strengthened with the increase of height above 500 m; From small to large, the monsoon affected area, the monsoon swing area and the non-monsoon area were in turn, and there was no regional difference above 3 km. \mathrm{③} ER was closely related to the intensity and property of precipitation in monsoon period. The ER weakened with the enhancement of rain intensity from near ground to below 600 m, but strengthened with the enhancement of rain intensity from 500 m to 2~3 km.From near ground to below 700 m, the ER of stable precipitation was strong, but that of convective precipitation was strong above 700 m. The convective precipitation had big saturated water vapor pressure and strong ER , while the stable precipitation had big saturated water vapor density, rich water vapor but weak ER. \mathrm{④}The relationship between ER and monsoon as well as its duration: From no monsoon to monsoon ER was weakened, the strongest maximum height was also decreasing. There was no significant difference in the duration of ER between the non-monsoon area and the monsoon affected area, but the longer the monsoon swing area lasted in the near ground layer, the smaller the ER was, while the opposite was at 1~2 km in the high altitude. \mathrm{⑤}The relationship between ER and the APO monsoon intensity index showed that: At 07:00, the ER strengthened with height from near ground to below 800 m, but weakened with height above 800 m,and the monsoon intensity was not related to the ER. At 19:00, the ER strengthened with the height near ground but weakened with the height above 300 m, and the stronger the monsoon was, the smaller the ER was. The ER weakened with the decrease of boundary layer height.     

Holocene Dune Mobility and Forcing Mechanisms at the Northern Margin of the East Asian Monsoon

Dune fields at the northern margin of the East Asian monsoon (EAM), are mosaics of mobile and vegetation-stabilized aeolian dunes. These sand dunes are highly sensitive to environmental change, thus the distribution and the timing of their development may provide important clues to past environmental dynamics. Due to the strong wind erosion and dune migration, long and continuous stratigraphic records are seldom preserved. Synthesizing a large body of events, ultimately producing a relatively complete and high-resolution record, may be a proper method to investigate the dune development history and climate change. In this study, we synthesized a large body of luminescence ages for aeolian deposits from the Mu Us, Otindag, Horqin dune fields at the northern margin of the EAM. The results show that these dune fields, as a whole experienced a most extensive mobility during the early Holocene, followed by a widespread shift toward limited mobility and soil development in the mid-Holocene, and widespread reactivation occurred during late Holocene. The dune developments are directly linked to the effective moisture change controlled by the EAM changes, which respond to the low latitude summer insolation variation. The increased subsidence at the margin contrary to the core EAM, the delay from the feedback of the soil-vegetation-air coupled system, the increased evaporation due to the high temperature all play partial role in the lag of the margin EAM effective moisture change to the low latitude summer insolation. The asynchronous end of the wetter mid-Holocene mainly responds to the southeastwardly shift of the precipitation belt, while the regional sensitivity, response speed and internal feedback also contributed. The correspondence between dune records and North Atlantic drift-ice records of the rapid climate changes implies a close relationship between North Atlantic climate and the frequent dune activity at the northern margin of EAM.     

Pattern of abrupt climatic fluctuation in the East Asian Monsoon during the Last Glacial: Evidence from Chinese loess records

Records of two loess sections located in mid-eastern and western margins of the East Asian Monsoon area captured 20 Dansgaard-Oescher events and six Heinrich events. All these suggested that the climate in the East Asian Monsoon area fluctuated rapidly on millennial to century timescales during the whole Last Glacial. We found that these loess-based events of rapid climate fluctuations were generally synchronous with those of GRIP records, but that there were differences between the Shagou loess section in the west and the Wangguan loess section in the east: the former was more sensitive to climate change than the latter. Compared with earlier studies on loess records covering the Last Glacial from neighboring areas, we discovered that the magnitude of Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles decreased gradually from west to east and we suggest that it resulted from the combined effect of the Westerlies and the East Asian Monsoon.     

汉江上游I级河流阶的形成及对东亚季风 变化的响应

对郧县—白河段汉江Ⅰ级河流阶地上风成黄土的沉积学、理化性质、地球化学和年代学进行了系统研究。结果表明,汉江Ⅰ河流阶的形成不晚于25 ka BP;黄土具有马兰黄土(L1)→过渡黄土(Lt)→古土壤(S0)→全新世黄土(L0)→表土(TS)的地层序列,与渭河谷地的黄土地层序列完全可比;25~11.5 ka BP,冬季风强盛,气候冷干,从11.5 ka BP开始,冬季风逐渐减弱,气候开始向暖湿方向逐步转化,从8.5 ka BP开始,夏季风达到了末次冰期结束后的鼎盛时期,3.1 ka BP前后,东亚季风格局发生变化,夏季风减弱,重新进入一个相对干冷的时期,而人类活动对地表的影响形成了表土;汉江上游谷地黄土记录的末次冰期后季风逐渐加强、中全新世季风强盛、随后季风衰退和气候变干的夏季风演变模式与渭河谷地黄土的记录高度一致,与邻区石笋和泥炭记录的季风变化趋势也有良好的可比性,但与石笋/泥炭记录的夏季风强盛期的起始时间(9.3~4.2 ka BP)并不完全一致。     

热带西太平洋沉积物的环境磁学特征对东亚冬季风的响应

西太平洋暖池(Western Pacific Warm Pool,WPWP)指位于热带太平洋中、西部(包括南海南部和苏禄海)年平均水温超过 28 ℃的广大海域。由于巨厚的表层暖水覆盖,西太平洋暖池成为全球热量和水汽交互的重要源区,对驱动温盐环流、调节全球气候变化具有重要作用。东亚冬季风(EAWM)是全球气候系统中最活跃的组成部分之一,它可能会通过寒潮侵入热带地区,引起深层对流,以此加强暖池区的对流活动和降水异常,从而影响赤道地区的潜热释放。但地质历史时期西太平洋暖池与东亚冬季风的相互作用关系尚不明确。由于东亚冬季风携带的风尘中往往包含有大颗粒的高矫顽力磁性矿物,我们可以通过沉积物中磁性矿物的组合、含量、颗粒大小和形态变化,分析不同时间尺度上气候环境变化和风尘物质的输入情况,进而反演东亚冬季风的强度变化。本文对取自热带西太平洋B10钻孔的岩心样品进行了环境磁学测试,以揭示地质历史时期西太平洋暖池沉积物环境磁学特征对东亚冬季风的响应。实验结果表明,沉积物中的主要载磁矿物为低矫顽力的磁铁矿,属于亚铁磁性矿物,并含有少量高矫顽力磁性矿物。沉积物中的磁性颗粒以准单畴(PSD)颗粒为主。高矫顽力的磁性矿物含量和细颗粒磁铁矿相对含量在冰期和间冰期呈现出显著相对变化,对东亚冬季风的变化有敏感响应:冰期沉积物中高矫顽力矿物含量增多,磁性颗粒粒径变大;间冰期沉积物中高矫顽力矿物含量降低,磁性颗粒粒径变细。在干燥、寒冷的冰期,由风尘携带而来的高矫顽力磁性矿物相对含量增加,沉积物中的磁性颗粒粒径变大,反映冰期东亚冬季风强度增大;在气候温暖湿润的间冰期,风尘的输入量较小,由风尘携带的高矫顽力磁性矿物含量相对较低,沉积物中的磁性颗粒粒径变小,反映间冰期东亚冬季风的强度减弱。     

The Monsoon in the Arabian Sea: Implications From Radiolarian Fluxes to the Deep Sea

THE MONSOON IN THE ARABIAN SEA:IMPLICATIONS FROM RADIOLARIAN FLUXES TO THE DEEP SEA     

早全新世季风演化的高分辨率石笋δ18O记录研究--以河南老母洞石笋为例

基于豫西老母洞LM2石笋8个高精度230Th年龄,449个氧碳同位素,建立了达十年际分辨率的8.2~10.9 ka B.P.亚洲季风变化的δ18O记录序列.老母洞石笋δ18O值最为偏负达-12.0‰,最偏正为-8.2‰,振幅达3.8‰.早全新世10.13~10.9 ka B.P.时段内,河南西部老母洞石笋和东石崖石笋,陕西九仙洞C996-2石笋δ18O曲线揭示该时段内季风稳定,而中国南方的衙门洞石笋、三宝洞石笋和极地冰芯GRIP记录揭示该时段季风逐渐增强;同时季风达到顶峰的时期也不相同,进一步说明中国南北方早全新世10.13~10.9 ka B.P.时段季风演变过程的差异,可能与中国南北方气候的响应机制有关.从早全新世平均分辨率10年的LM2石笋记录中识别出8.2 ka,9.5 ka,10.2 ka和10.9 ka显著弱季风事件,尤其是8.2 ka和9.5 ka事件.对比分析老母洞与已发表的高分辨率石笋δ18O记录发现:石笋所揭示的某些冷事件发生时间在亚洲季风区存在差异,主要表现在事件内部变化特征及趋势上.LM2石笋δ18O曲线并没有明显记录9.3 ka弱季风事件,而是在9.3~9.6 ka B.P.左右记录了一个弱季风事件,与DSY09(2009)、Y1、HS-4记录相似,表明在该时段内存在季风的减弱事件,但是氧同位素传输的复杂性,使其在南北方表现不同.此外,在LM2石笋δ18O的8.2 ka B.P.开始时段,氧同位素曲线阶段性下降,且变幅达3‰,与Zhang等研究万象洞石笋提出的“中国8 200阶段”吻合,表明中国北方地区的8.2 ka事件是阶段性的事件,而南方的石笋氧同位素记录揭示的8.2 ka事件并未表现出阶段性特征,其原因有待于更多北方高精度石笋记录来进一步研究.LM2石笋氧同位素记录进行功率谱分析发现:在短尺度上季风变化与太阳活动密切相关,这与近年来对早全新世极端气候变化研究的驱动机制是一致的,早全新世亚洲季风的演化与太阳活动变化引起的太阳辐射能量的变化和北半球高纬气候的变化状况有关.     

黔西高原末次冰期晚期古植被及西南季风演变*

黔西高原的长时间序列孢粉记录比较少,限制了对该地区末次冰期晚期古植被及西南季风演化过程和机制的认识。本研究通过对黔西高原一个连续的古湖泊沉积物孢粉记录的分析,并结合AMS¹⁴C测年,重建黔西高原末次冰期晚期古植被及西南季风演化。结果表明: 轨道尺度上,MIS3(氧同位素3阶段)中晚期,黔西高原主要为木本、草本植物,喜湿的针叶树种较多,西南季风较强。MIS2(氧同位素2阶段)期间,喜湿的针叶树种减少,而草本、蕨类植物增多,指示气候冷干,西南季风减弱。千年尺度上,黔西高原西南季风响应于北大西洋冰漂碎屑事件及H3(Heninrich 3)、H2(Heninrich 2)和LGM(Last Glacial Maximum)事件,导致西南季风减弱,喜湿的针叶树种减少。通过对比发现,东亚夏季风和西南季风在轨道及千年尺度上协同演化,二者均响应于北半球高纬度太阳辐射变化及北大西洋冰漂碎屑事件。在19~18 cal ka BP,黔西高原经历最冷干气候,西南季风减弱,木本、草本植物近乎消失,而同期东亚夏季风增强,说明西南季风和东亚夏季风在冰后期上存在反相位关系。     

Impact of Southern Oscillation on the Frequency of Monsoon Depressions in the Bay of Bengal

The impact of Southern Oscillation on thecyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringthe summer monsoon has been investigated.The analysis of correlation coefficients(CCs) between the frequency of monsoondepressions and the Southern OscillationIndex (SOI) reveals that more depressionsform during July and August of El Niñoyears. Due to this, the seasonal frequencyof monsoon depressions remains little higherduring El Niño epochs even though thecorrelations for June and September are notsignificant. The CCs for July and August aresignificant at the 99% level.The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)is known to affect Indian MonsoonRainfall (IMR) adversely. The enhancedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal duringJuly and August is an impact of ENSO whichneeds to be examined closely. Increasedcyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal may bereducing the deficiency in IMR duringEl Niño years by producing more rainfallover the eastern parts of India duringJuly and August. Thus there is a considerablespatial variation in the impact of ENSOon the monsoon rainfall over India and El Niñoneed not necessarily imply a monsoonfailure everywhere in India.The area of formation of monsoon depressionsshifts eastward during El Niño years.Warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomaliesprevail over northwest and adjoiningwestcentral Bay of Bengal during premonsoon andmonsoon seasons of El Niño years.May minus March SOI can provide useful predictionsof monsoon depression frequencyduring July and August.     

Construction of Statistical-Dynamic Prediction Model for the Asian-Australian Summer Monsoon Based on the Predictable Mode Analysis Method and Assessment of Its Predictive Skills

Due to the limitations of model performances, the predictive skills of current climate models for the Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation are still poor. The prediction based on the combination of statistical and dynamic approaches is an effective way to improve the predictive skills. We used such method to identify the predictable modes of the Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation with clear physical interpretation from the historical observational data. Then we combined the principal components time series of these modes predicted by the coupled models, which is derived from the seasonal prediction experiments in the ENSEMBLES project, and the corresponding spatial patterns derived from the above observational analysis to reconstruct the precipitation field. These formed a statistical-dynamic seasonal prediction model for the Asian-Australian summer monsoon precipitation. We analyzed the predictive skills of the model at 1-, 4-and 7-month leads. The result shows that the forecast skills of the statistical-dynamic prediction model are higher than those of the simple dynamic predictions. In addition, the predictive skills of the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) mean are superior to those of any individual models. Therefore, it is very necessary to implement multi-model ensemble prediction for the monsoon precipitation.