West North Pacific typhoon track patterns and their potential connection to Tibetan Plateau snow cover

The spatial characteristics and temporal variability of the West North Pacific (WNP) typhoon tracks are studied by analyzing the spatial pattern and temporal variability of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the WNP typhoon track density function (TTDF) from 1945 to 2004. The results show that WNP typhoon tracks exhibit three principal EOF Modes. The first EOF Mode represents the contrasting “active” versus “inactive” typhoons defined by the overall frequency and life span of the typhoons that develop in the WNP basin. The second EOF shows a north–south dipole Mode in the TTDF depicting a seesaw pattern in typhoon frequency between Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia. The third EOF describes an east–west dipole Mode in TTDF depicting a zonal seesaw pattern between typhoons that tend to make landfalls in East Asia and typhoons that tend to stay away from the East Asia landmasses. Further analysis of the EOF time series of the WNP TTDF indicates that an important climatic factor associated with the WNP typhoon activity is the snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which is also correlated with the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM). Thus, a mechanism linking the TP snow cover and the WNP typhoon activity is the response of the EASM in the WNP region to the TP snow cover, and the subsequent effect of EASM on the development and steering of the WNP typhoons.     

Reduced-order optimal control of water flooding using proper orthogonal decomposition

Model-based optimal control of water flooding generally involves multiple reservoir simulations, which makes it into a time-consuming process. Furthermore, if the optimization is combined with inversion, i.e., with updating of the reservoir model using production data, some form of regularization is required to cope with the ill-posedness of the inversion problem. A potential way to address these issues is through the use of proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), also known as principal component analysis, Karhunen–Loève decomposition or the method of empirical orthogonal functions. POD is a model reduction technique to generate low-order models using ‘snapshots’ from a forward simulation with the original high-order model. In this work, we addressed the scope to speed up optimization of water-flooding a heterogeneous reservoir with multiple injectors and producers. We used an adjoint-based optimal control methodology that requires multiple passes of forward simulation of the reservoir model and backward simulation of an adjoint system of equations. We developed a nested approach in which POD was first used to reduce the state space dimensions of both the forward model and the adjoint system. After obtaining an optimized injection and production strategy using the reduced-order system, we verified the results using the original, high-order model. If necessary, we repeated the optimization cycle using new reduced-order systems based on snapshots from the verification run. We tested the methodology on a reservoir model with 4050 states (2025 pressures, 2025 saturations) and an adjoint model of 4050 states (Lagrange multipliers). We obtained reduced-order models with 20–100 states only, which produced almost identical optimized flooding strategies as compared to those obtained using the high-order models. The maximum achieved reduction in computing time was 35%.     

Empirical Orthogonal Functions Analysis Applied to the Inverse Problem in Hydrogeology: Evaluation of Uncertainty and Simulation of New Solutions

To fulfil the need to generate more realistic solutions, stochastic inverse simulations in hydrogeology are now constrained on both piezometric head and hydraulic conductivity data. These inverse techniques, often based on geostatistics, allow modifications of an initial solution conditioned only on hydraulic conductivity data to arrive at a final solution that also matches observed heads. By repeating the process as many times as necessary with different initial solutions, one generates an ensemble of final solutions thereby addressing the uncertainty of the inverse problem. This requires a method able to handle the whole ensemble and to work on its relevant characteristics. From this standpoint, the analysis by Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) appears promising. The method builds an orthogonal decomposition of the covariance matrix, calculated over the whole set of solutions, and the areas in space where the first functions have a greater influence corresponding to locations of maximum uncertainty in the solutions. These locations depend both on the hydraulic characteristics of the flow problem and on the spatial distribution of available data. The EOF analysis is used on a synthetic problem that mimics a possible behavior of the Culebra aquifer of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP, New Mexico). The method also allows new solutions to be generated at lower computational cost by a random composition of the functions obtained by the EOF analysis. These new solutions keep the main characteristics of the initial ensemble and because they can be conditioned, they return very good results when they are used to solve the direct problem.     

新疆巴里坤湖粒度组分分解及其环境指示意义

选择位于西风影响区的天山东段巴里坤湖湖泊岩芯样品,对沉积物粒度组分进行经验正交函数(EOF)分解,并探讨各分量的环境意义.结果显示,EOF1组分与沉积物粒度小于2μm组分相关系数达0.64以上,并与代表区域有效湿度的碳酸盐氧同位素指标有很好的对应关系,故将EOF1解译为区域有效湿度的替代指标.EOF2组分与粒级为45-...     

渤海表层悬浮泥沙的空间模态及其时间变化

针对整个渤海海域悬浮泥沙分布全貌研究的不足,基于2000-2004年连续5年的354个SeaWiFS反演的渤海表层悬沙浓度资料,经多年月平均得到其季节变化特征;通过经验正交函数分解,给出其空间模态及时间系数,揭示渤海表层悬浮泥沙的空间分布特征及其随时间的变化。渤海表层悬沙浓度除秦皇岛海域外近岸高,离岸低,辽东湾东岸浓度远大于西岸;冬季浓度最高,春秋次之,除河口海域外夏季浓度最低;河口海域冬夏季均为浓度高值区。经验正交分解显示第一空间模态反映渤海悬沙浓度的总体分布特征,其显著变化周期为12个月,显示渤海表层悬沙的季节变化特征。第二空间模态反映黄河入海径流对渤海表层悬沙浓度分布格局的影响, 其周期为6个月,代表黄河口海域悬沙浓度的变化周期。第三模态显示渤海不同海域悬沙浓度的增加或减小过程并不同步,存在明显的位相差异。     

Wind-driven circulation in the subarctic north Pacific using altimeter data

Time-dependent wind-driven circulation in the subarctic north Pacific is investigated by using Topex/Poseidon (T/P) altimeter data and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) wind data for about 6 years. The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the T/Pderived sea level anomaly (SLA) without the variation related to the steric height change (SLA1) and the first EOF of the ECMWF-based wind stress curl fields represent basin-sized south-north oscillations and their time series agree well with a correlation of 0.49. They appear to express the spin-up and spin-down of the subarctic gyre. The third EOF of SLA (SLA3) and the second EOF of the wind stress curl are also related to the variation of the subarctic gyre. Though the correlation of their time series is 0.27, drastic changes in early winter coincide well. The two EOF pairs can be considered to mean that the SLA variation followed by the latitudinal migration of the Aleutian low is separated into two standing oscillation patterns, that is, the sea level variation combined with SLA1 and SLA3 expresses seasonal variations of the wind-driven circulation of the subarctic gyre. The interannual SLAs constructed by subtracting the SLA1 and SLA3 components clearly show trans-pacific westward propagation even in the high-latitudes. The time series of SLA1 is in agreement with that ofin situ SLAs measured with the tide gauge at Petropavlovsk (53-01N, 158-38E), which implies the possibility to monitor the subarctic circulation using tide gauge data.     

An improved Monte Carlo simulation method for discontinuity orientations based on Fisher distribution and its program implementation

Fisher distribution is the most commonly used probability density function for discontinuity orientations. Based on Fisher distribution, Monte Carlo simulation method for discontinuity orientations was reviewed and improved. Those orientations extending beyond the edge of an upper hemisphere projection (OEBEUHP) often have an important influence on both the mean orientation and Fisher constant K, thus affecting simulation results. The detailed algorithms for identifying and adjusting those OEBEUHP were developed in this paper. Based on the improved method, a program for generating discontinuity orientations and plotting their stereographic projection maps, named as MCSDO, was developed. Due to the aforementioned adjustment, the generated orientations by MCSDO are close to the original discontinuity orientations, which were mapped in field, and satisfactory. Only the original orientations and target number of generated orientations need to be input. By running the program we can directly obtain the follows: orientations of generated discontinuities, mean orientations of both original and generated discontinuities, Fisher constant K of both original and generated discontinuities, and stereographic projection maps of both original and generated discontinuities. MCSDO is a freeware designed for researchers and practicing engineers, and can be easily mastered with a little computer knowledge.     

太湖流域61年来降水时空演变规律分析

基于太湖流域1951～2011年长系列降水资料,采用正交函数分解法、Spearman和Mann-Kendall非参数统计检验法、连续小波分析方法等,从空间分布、趋势性、周期性和突变性等方面系统剖析了61年来太湖全流域及各水利分区降水的时空演变规律。结果表明,太湖流域降水表现为两种空间分布类型,一类是年降水量振幅高值中心位于以市岭站为中心的浙西山区以及湖西区的长兴～宜兴一线,第二类表现为年降水量以湖区为分界呈南北相反的分布型态。61年来,太湖全流域和各水利分区年降水量、汛期降水量及年最大30日降水量均不存在显著的变化趋势,但具有较明显的丰枯周期。本文研究结果可为流域开展洪水资源利用、制订调度方案、应对气候变化提供科学依据。     

控制点布设方案对无人机精度测量的影响及其应用

近年来矿区地质灾害愈发严重。为准确监测尾矿坝地表沉陷变形,以地形地貌复杂的尾矿坝为研究实例,开展无人机低空摄影的形式进行监测数据收集。无人机原始POS数据存在系统误差的问题,文章利用误差改正模型纠正原始POS数据,并设计7种像控点布设方案,并对获取的尾矿坝高分辨率正射影像及DEM进行了精度评价。结果显示,当布设像控点数量为8个时,数据误差可以控制在3 mm以内;用两期DEM数据差值覆于地面模型,生成尾矿坝沉降图, 沿Y=350 m、Y=100 m和X=60 m剖面线做剖面图。基于测量结果发现,尾矿坝已出现整体沉降,其中南部尾矿坝下坡沉降范围最大,沉降范围在0.16 m之内。这次应用验证了在尾矿坝地表监测中无人机低空摄影测量的精度是可靠的。利用无人机的高精度成图方法对尾矿坝变形进行监测,对应急响应溃坝可能导致的绿洲地区及周边河湖生态灾难地形和矿区安全生产起到一定的预警作用。     

Seismic events discrimination by neuro-fuzzy merging of signal and catalogue features

This article presents an original method for the classification of low magnitude seismic events recorded in France by a network of seismometers. Three types of events are discriminated: earthquakes, mining blasts and rock bursts. This method is based on a merging of catalogue measurements and possibly incomplete measurements deduced from several seismic signals related to the event. The merging is performed by a multi-layer neural network. A fuzzy coding is applied to the input characteristics of the neural network. It allows the network to integrate data imperfections during the learning phase. Then, it is possible to process efficiently incomplete data. The results are obtained on a database composed of all the 1,402 seismic events recorded between August 23^rd 1993 and May 30^th 1994. They show that the fuzzy coding and the merging of catalogue features and signal features extracted from several seismometers for each event increase the performance of correct classification to more than 90% even when the database contains missing values. The confusion rate between earthquakes and mining blasts is simultaneously reduced.     

Analysis of a GPS Network Based on Functional Data Analysis

This paper demonstrates the usefulness of approaching the dynamic study of the precise positioning of a network of permanent global positioning system (GPS) stations through functional data analysis. The displacement data for each GPS station, obtained from observations of the global navigation satellite system, are a discrete sample of the positioning curve. The aim of this paper is to reconstruct the original functions in order to use them as functional data. In the method presented in this paper, the geodetic series are obtained first by processing the GPS data with respect to a reference station. Second, for each station, a cleaning process is applied to eliminate the values considered as outliers, and the missing values are imputed by using a Kalman filter. Finally, the original functions are reconstructed by using smoothing techniques and by evaluating several bases of functions. Moreover, these functions are treated with statistical techniques for functional data. This procedure is applied to the permanent stations of the south of the Iberian peninsula and the north of Africa (SPINA) network. The topocentric series: east, north and up are analysed. In the analysis of the positioning curves, there is observed a synchronized behaviour of the functions in those periods of time with important seismic activity. This behaviour also appears in the analysis of the second principal component of the East and up dimensions. Furthermore, the first two principal components of the East coordinate enable us to make a classification of the stations in the SPINA network. The classification made is consistent with the previous knowledge of the tectonic plates in the studied area.     

基于ERA5-Land数据集的玛纳斯河径流模拟研究

气象数据是水文过程研究的关键要素,再分析数据的发展为资料缺乏地区的径流模拟提供了新的解决方案。为研究ERA5-Land再分析数据集在径流模拟中的适用性,本文以玛纳斯河流域肯斯瓦特水文站以上流域为研究区,选取多个评价指标对ERA5-Land降水和温度进行准确性评价,并采用经验模态分解(EOF)分析其在研究区内的分布特点。在准确性方面,ERA5-Land与实测数据具有较好相关性,降水探测率为0.96,能反映大多数的降水事件,但与实测数据相比总体偏高21.81%,气温准确性好于降水,总体拟合效果较好,最优范围为-520 ℃,在极值部分不确定性有所增加。EOF决定性模态表明研究区内降水、气温变化趋势基本一致,即易受大尺度天气系统影响。利用该数据集驱动SWAT模型在月、日尺度上对玛纳斯河流域进行径流模拟,在验证期纳什系数(NSE)分别为0.88和0.82,具有较好的模拟效果。ERA5-Land再分析数据集可为西北缺乏实测气象资料地区径流模拟提供参考。     

1961—2005年黄土高原地区积温演变

为揭示黄土高原积温区域变化特征,采用EOFS、小波分析和分形分维分析等方法,研究了该区域在近45 a的年正负积温变化.结果表明:黄土高原正负积温变化的区域一致性程度较高;负积温存在以3-4 a为主的年际振荡,正积温存在以2-4 a为主的年际振荡;负积温在1982年左右发生突变,年总量呈明显减少,3 a周期加强;正积温在1985/1986年突变后呈明显增加趋势,2 a周期消逝,4 a周期衰减,3 a周期突出.积温大振幅区集中在黄土高原腹地,变化信息由高原中部向周边传播;负积温分维数大于正积温,负积温变化全程复杂于正积温,这可能与冬夏季大气环流活跃程度和冷暖空气在近地面运动受大地形影响有关.     

Connection of periodic orbits and variability patterns of circulation for the barotropic model of atmospheric dynamics

We have investigated the relationship between periodic trajectories of barotropic atmospheric model and the modes of the model variability. In particular, we have studied the nature of “25 day” mode of variability (Branstator, 1987; Kushnir 1987). This mode arises as a first complex empirical orthogonal function (or “Hilbert EOF” according to (H. von Storch, Zwiers)) for a given system and is a dominant rotational component of the system dynamics. It was shown that the mode structure coincides with several least unstable periodic orbits of the system. The phase portrait of the system in the plane of the first complex EOF has regular shape with maximum of the probability density function in the vicinity of these weakly unstable periodic orbits.     

Simulation and Projection of Climate Change in Qinling and Surrounding Areas with NEX-BCC Model

Based on NEX-BCC_CGM1.1 global daily statistics downscaling climate data set, the latest release by American National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), which has representative concentration path, by using linear fitting and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis methods, the simulation capacity on precipitation and temperature in Qinling and its surrounding areas of this data sets was estimated and the possible changes of the precipitation, daily maximum and minimum temperature in the next stage under the two scenarios of Rcp4.5 and Rcp8.5 were analyzed. Results showed that: ①The inter-annual trend of average daily precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature is simulated well by NEX-BCC_CGM1.1. The spatial distribution was in accordance with the observations. The deficiency is that the elements value and extreme frequency have systemic bias compared with the observations. ②Average daily precipitation will have increasing trend in the future in Qinling and its surrounding areas under the two scenarios of Rcp4.5 and Rcp8.5. For different level precipitation frequency, light rains will reduce and rainstorms will increase in the future. The spatial modes of precipitation in the future are shown as the variation of the uniform increase in the whole region (EOF1) and anti-phase change in northern and southern Qinling (EOF2). EOF1 will be positive phase in medium-term in the Mid-21^st century, where there will be significantly more means precipitation. ③Under the two scenarios, temperature warming trend is obvious, daily maximum temperature increasing trend is greater than minimum temperature, and the amplitude of temperature increase under Rcp8.5 is higher than Rcp4.5. The frequency of daily maximum temperatures greater than 36 ℃ will increase and low temperature less than -15 ℃ will reduce in the future, at the same time, high temperature (low temperature) increase (decrease) rate is more pronounced under Rcp8.5. Average daily maximum and minimum temperatures are shown uniform warming in the whole region (EOF1) and anti-phase change in northern and southern Qinling under two scenarios, but the spatial distribution has great difference.     

Alternating Effects of Climate Drivers on Altamaha River Discharge to Coastal Georgia,USA

Freshwater delivery is an important factor determining estuarine character and health and may be influenced by large-scale climate oscillations. Variability in freshwater delivery (precipitation and discharge) to the Altamaha River estuary (GA, USA) was examined in relation to indices for several climate signals: the Bermuda High Index (BHI), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the Improved El Niño Modoki Index (IEMI), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA). Discharge to this estuary has been linked to key ecosystem properties (e.g., salinity regime, water residence time, nutrient inputs, and marsh processes), so understanding how climate patterns affect precipitation and river discharge will help elucidate how the estuarine ecosystem may respond to climate changes. Precipitation patterns in the Altamaha River watershed were described using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the combined multidecadal time series of precipitation at 14 stations. The first EOF (67 % of the variance) was spatially uniform, the second EOF (11 %) showed a spatial gradient along the long axis of the watershed (NW–SE), and the third EOF (6 %) showed a NE–SW pattern. We compared the principal components (PCs) associated with these EOFs, monthly standardized anomalies of Altamaha River discharge at the gauge closest to the estuary, and the climate indices. Complex, seasonally alternating patterns emerged. The BHI was correlated with June–January discharge and precipitation PC 1. The SOI was correlated with January–April discharge and precipitation PC 2, and also weakly correlated with PC 1 in November–December. The AMO was correlated with river discharge and precipitation PC 3 mainly in December–February and June. The correlation patterns of precipitation PCs with PDO and PNA were similar to those with SOI, but weaker. There were no consistent relationships with two NAO indices or IEMI. Connections between climate signals and estimates of nutrient loading were consistent with the connections to discharge. The occurrence of tropical storms in the region was strongly related to the BHI but not to the other climate indices, possibly representing the influence of storm tracking more than the rate of storm formation. Comparison with the literature suggests that the patterns found may be typical of southeastern USA estuaries but are likely to be different from those outside the region.     

A case study on geochemical anomaly identification through principal components analysis supplementary projection

Based on a case study in which a single geochemical anomaly was located in the vicinity of an abandoned mine in Central Portugal, a recursive methodology for anomaly/background separation was developed. This methodology relies on the supplementary projection of each of the samples taken from a subset of ‘anomaly candidates’ onto the axes provided by Principal Components Analysis of the background subset. The concept of ‘anomaly intensity’, defined by the average of the distances from the original to the supplementary projections, is the basis for final anomaly identification.     

柴达木盆地6.0kaB.P.,2.5kaB.P.和现代的植被覆盖度重建

研究区位于青海柴达木盆地及其邻近地区,本文利用MODIS的植被覆盖度栅格数据,对区内的286个表土花粉样品进行覆盖度估算的误差与精度检验,并且选取了尕海湖和青海湖6.0kaB.P.,2.5kaB.P.和现代的3个时间片段进行裸地、草地和乔木覆盖度变化的研究。冰消期以来的气候变化必然导致荒漠－草原－森林草原的边界发生位移,钻孔第四纪花粉数据的植被覆盖度重建是一个新的尝试,它可以为该地区植被带的位移和季风变化提供重要的环境替代指标。本文采用经验正交函数(EOF)对多变量花粉数据进行了组合变换,然后采用弦距离类比法获得覆盖度的定量重建值。两个钻孔的花粉－覆盖度转换结果清楚地揭示出柴达木盆地6.0kaB.P. 时期较为湿润,而2.5kaB.P.和现代较为干旱,其中青海湖在6.0kaB.P.的乔木覆盖度达到6.13%,而到了2.5kaB.P.和现代降至0.5%左右。尕海的草地覆盖度在6.0kaB.P.达到46.87%,而到了2.5kaB.P. 降至21.75%和现今的0%。本研究结果证明,采用表土花粉数据作为标准数据集来进行古代植被覆盖度转换是可行的,该方法相对于A/C比值对指示干旱程度方面更具有说服力,在季风边缘区和农牧交错带的环境变迁定量化研究方面具有较大的潜力。     

Endmember orthonormal mapping in hyperspectral mixture analysis to address endmember variability

Spectral unmixing estimates the abundance of each endmember at every pixel of a hyperspectral image. Each material in traditional unmixing algorithms is represented through a constant spectral signature. However, endmember variability always exists due to environmental, atmospheric, and temporal conditions, which leads to poor accuracy of the estimated abundances. This paper proposes a new unmixing algorithm based on a new linear transformation called endmember orthonormal mapping (EOM) to overcome the aforementioned problem. The EOM transformation maps original spectral space to a new EOM space to reduce endmember variability. In the original spectral space, each material is represented by a set of spectra (endmember set) which is extracted using the automated endmember bundles (AEB) method. The EOM transforms each endmember set to a vector in the EOM space so that these vectors are orthonormal. On account of orthonormalized endmembers, the condition number of the mixing matrix in the EOM space reduces. Furthermore, we consider the noise term as an additional virtual endmember set mapped to a vector that is orthogonal to other endmembers. As a result, a promising unmixing accuracy is obtained through applying the least squares abundance estimation in the subspace orthogonal to noise. Experimental results of both synthetic and real hyperspectral images demonstrate that the proposed algorithms provide much enhanced performance compared with the state-of-the-art algorithms.     

基于DEM的天山山区气温和降水序列推算方法研究

为了计算天山山区区域气候要素平均值序列,提出了一个新的气候序列计算方案.对天山山区17个气象站和10个水文站的1961-2000年的年气温、降水资料进行了自然正交分解(EOF),并以DEM(Digital Elevation Model)的1 km×1 km网格数据为基础,结合多元回归等方法,分别建立了前3个特征向量与经度、纬度及海拔高度因子的插值模型,由此推算出天山山区(海拔≥1500 m)年平均气温、降水序列.误差分析表明,27站实测的年平均气温序列与计算的区域平均序列值的相关系数为0.996,系统性偏差小,平均相对误差为5.5%;年降水量序列的实测值与计算值平均相对误差略大,为14.8%,相关系数为0.972.区域平均序列的计算值与测站简单的算术平均序列在量值上存在明显的差异,计算出的气温平均偏低4.3℃,降水量平均偏高43.2 mm.此方法为计算站点稀少、地形复杂的区域平均的要素时间序列方面提供了一个解决手段.