从地质特征分析成都主城区在地震中的安全性——以汶川大地震为例

汶川M_S 8.0大地震发生后,关于成都市主城区安全性的讨论一度十分激烈。本文从成都市及周边的基本地质构造和沉积特征入手,讨论成都市主城区在地震中的安全性问题。经过分析认为:川西坳陷刚性稳定的岩石圈结构决定了成都平原不会发生破坏性的大地震;成都平原沉积盖层厚度大、质量佳、分布适宜决定了龙门山发生的地震不会对成都主城区造成巨大破坏。因此,面对天然地震,成都市主城区是安全的。     

科学认识大地震

笔者从汶川大地震的成因出发,根据地震序列的类型、发生大地震的时间尺度和都江堰-江油断裂带对地震波的消减,以及成都平原特殊的地壳结构,认为发生大地震或大余震对成都平原的影响有限。在大地震后,随着地壳应力场的改变,可能在成都平原引发小地震,应加强对熊坡活动断裂等的监测,以及附近房地产等工程建设的管理,提高民众的防震意识。地震宏观前兆异常并不是都很明显。单一动物的异常行为,如蟾蜍或青蛙迁徙,不能构成预测地震的依据。大地震诱因是很复杂的,现阶段的科学技术还不能准确预测地震。     

对成都地区砂土地基液化问题的初步认识

根据国家地震部门的鉴定,成都市的地震基本烈度定为7度。对成都地区今后可能发生地震时砂土地基是否可能产生液化及其对建筑物的危害性作出正确的预测,已成为成都市当前大规模建设事业中面临的需要解决的课题之一。本文从研究成都地区砂层的分布、埋藏条件及性质着手,根据国内外已有震例的分析和对砂土液化机理的认识,结合成都地区的具体条件,试图探索成都地区砂土液化的可能性、分布规律和危害程度。需要说明的是,本文所指成都地区的范围仅包括成都市区及其近郊。对于面积更大一些的整个成都平原地区,则不在本文所讨论的范围之内。     

四川汶川大地震的构造分析

2008年5月12日在汶川映秀(北纬31.0°,东经103.4°)发生8级大地震,而后发生万余次余震,其最大震级为6.4级.此次地震属主震-余震型地震.通过构造分析认为.汶川大地震是构造地震,主要受龙门山断裂带的强烈活动控制.它是一种板内地震,其动力来源来自印度板块与欧亚板块的碰撞.而成都平原处于稳定地块中,尽管离震中较近,然受地震的影响有限,是比较安全的.     

长江三峡及邻区地震活动的灰色预测

根据历史地震记载和现今地震观测数据,运用灰色系统理论,建立了长江三峡及邻区下一个地震活跃期及活跃期内可能发生的最大地震的震级的灰色预测模型,预测结果表明,下一个地震活跃期将持续79a,活跃期内的最大地震震级不会超     

汶川地震后成都平原地面塌陷特征及对策

汶川地震后两年,成都平原多个县区出现地面塌陷。就地质环境而言,成都平原不具备自然地下空洞引发大型地面塌陷的地质条件。现有地面塌陷均为人为地下空洞在自然或人为因素下引发。汶川地震缩短了产生地面塌陷的时间,致使成都平原在地震后两年内较高频率发生小规模地面塌陷。     

南海北缘钻探选址：滨海断裂带大型海洋地质灾害研究

滨海断裂带是南海北缘的一条大型活动断裂带，其位置靠近我国华南沿海地区。滨海断裂带全长超过1200 km，包括西段（北部湾- 阳江），中段（珠江口）和东段（粤东- 福建）。其西段和东段历史上至少曾发生过4次大地震（M7+），中段目前是一个大地震空区。在经济高速发展和人口高度密集的今天，如果滨海断裂带再次发生大地震并触发海啸，必将对我国华南沿海地区造成灾难性破坏。由于缺乏完整的历史地震记录和针对古地震的钻孔沉积研究，目前尚不清楚滨海断裂带大地震的准确次数、空间分布和复发周期，以及中段大地震空区的主要原因（断层蠕滑或大地震周期较长），因此无法有效评估该断裂带的大地震破裂分段和灾害风险。本研究总结了滨海断裂带的构造特征、重点描述了3次历史大地震及引发的灾害影响，和国际上针对海底大地震的钻探研究经验。根据这些信息，本文建议在断裂带的西段、中断和东段进行大洋钻探，获取穿过断层带的关键沉积和岩石样品，利用沉积古地震方法重建滨海断裂带东段和西段的大地震历史和复发周期，研究断层带的岩石物理性质，揭示滨海断裂中段大地震空区的成因，解析断层分段式破裂的原因，为我国海洋防灾减灾提供重要的科学依据。     

海原断裂干盐池探槽揭示非特征性古地震序列

海原断裂是青藏高原东北缘一条重要的陆内活动左旋走滑断裂,于1920年发生过里氏8?级特大地震,形成约230km的地表破裂带和高达10.2m的同震左旋位移。该断裂的大地震复发行为特征一直是地震地质学家关注的重点,然而现有的认识需要更多以精细沉积地层约束的古地震数据的验证。基于此,在海原断裂中段干盐池盆地成功开挖了数个大型三维探槽,揭露了清晰的韵律性、面状展布地层和丰富的古地震事件证据。在探槽上部2.5m厚的最新细粒沉积层序记录了AD 1500以来的3次地震事件。基于地层中~(14)C样品的结果和历史地震史料的考证,限定这3次地震事件分别对应于AD 1920年、AD 1760年(或1709年)和AD 1638年的地震,但其震级差别很大。除了最新一次地震,即1920年海原大地震的震级为8?级,其他2次地震事件的震级较小,均小于7级,说明海原断裂上伴生有地表破裂的地震不全是特征型地震事件。结果表明,古地震探槽中揭示的地震强度不一定相同,而且中等震级地震也可以产生地表破裂,其地层证据在合适的条件下,如无沉积间断、沉积速率大等环境能在地层中得到保存。     

蒲江地区熊坡断层特征及活动性研究

四川蒲江地区熊坡断层带（区域上称蒲江-新津断裂带）在第四纪还有强烈活动,是一条活动断层。该断层在新津地区被第四系覆盖,往北东通过成都市主城区。通过野外地质调查发现：该断层无强烈地震所具有的高滑动速率;在构造方面该断层未断入地壳深部的高能干岩层中,断层的岩性强度较低,因此该断层积蓄较大的能量是不容易的,发生较大地震的可能性也不大。     

“5．12”大地震前后汶川县地质灾害发育研究

汶川大地震对地质环境影响很大,由于大地震的影响,其震前震后的地质灾害类型、数量等发生了很大的改变。本文通过搜集前人资料,现场调查,分析了汶川大地震前后汶川县地质灾害的变化。结果表明,地震前汶川县地质灾害类型主要以泥石流为主,地震后,汶川县地质灾害类型主要为崩塌,其次为泥石流和滑坡。地震使汶川县地质灾害数量极大增加,同时,也使得其主要地质灾害类型发生改变。     

The geological background of the May 12, 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan catastrophic earthquake,Longmen Shan,Western China

The Longmen Shan fault zone is located at the particular boundary between the Triassic Songpan-Ganzi orogen of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the stable Sichuan basin of the Yangtze platform. There are four major active faults and three tectonic nappes in this region. According to an analysis of neotectonics and historical earthquakes, the Longmen Shan fault zone presents a high level of seismic hazard. The rupture system that hosted the Wenchuan earthquake is characterized by thrust and dextral strike-slip movement.     

龙门山造山带早期断裂活动的古地震制约——来自汶川科钻(WFSD)岩心的证据

强地震是断裂活动的表现形式,可以诱发地表沉积层序顶部未固结的软沉积物发生变形,形成新的变形层(即震积岩***)。因此,在连续沉积剖面中赋存的多层震积岩应是断裂活动的直接证据。川西前陆盆地中的软沉积物变形记载了龙门山断裂带的活动信息,对认识龙门山造山带演化历史具有重要意义。本文通过"汶川地震断裂带科学钻探"一号孔(WFSD-1)和三号孔(WFSD-3)连续岩心剖面的岩性分析和构造研究,识别出11段不同深度的液化角砾岩层,它们是地震触发成因的软沉积物变形岩层。11个液化角砾岩段厚度从~20m至102m不等,分布在晚三叠世须家河组二-五段。这些液化角砾岩层记录了龙门山前陆盆地形成过程中晚三叠世断裂活动特征及趋势。这些厚度不等的震积岩粗略指示约2~20万年的地震活动长周期(地震幕),以及约4至70万年的间震期(地震幕的间隔时间),反映了龙门山断裂早期脉动式(幕式)活动特征。从不同段液化角砾岩层分布间隔规律来看,地震活跃期间隔(即间震期)越来越短,显示龙门山造山带断裂活动越来越强的趋势。结合前人地表软沉积物变形研究,我们认为龙门山造山带在晚三叠世经历了多期次的正断-逆冲活动的造山作用(至少经历14个地震活跃期),形成龙门山雏形及前陆盆地。     

Numerical simulation of dynamic mechanisms of the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake: implications for earthquake prediction

The sudden and unexpected Wenchuan earthquake (Ms = 8.0) occurred on the Longmen Shan Fault, causing a large number of casualties and huge property loss. Almost no definite precursors were reported prior to this event by Chinese scientists, who made a first successful prediction of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake (M = 7.3) in China. Does the unsuccessful prediction of the Wenchuan earthquake mean earthquake prediction is inherently impossible? In order to answer this question, the paper simulated inter- and co-seismic deformation, and recurrence of strong earthquakes associated with the Longmen Shan listric thrust fault by means of viscoelastic finite element method. The modeling results show that the computed interseismic strain accumulation in the lower crust beneath the Eastern Tibet is much faster than that in the other regions. In particular, the elastic strain energy density rate accumulates very rapid in and around the Longmen Shan fault in the depth above ~25 km that may explain why the great Wenchuan earthquake occurs in the region of such a slow surface deformation rate. The modeled coseismic displacements around the fault are consistent with surface rupture, aftershock distribution, and GPS measurement. Also, the model displays the slip history on the Longmen Shan fault, implying that the average earthquake recurrence interval on the Longmen Shan fault is very long, 3,300 years, which is in good agreement with the observed by paleoseismological investigations and estimates by other methods. Moreover, the model results indicate that the future earthquake could be evaluated based on numerical computation, rather than on precursors or on statistics. Numerical earthquake prediction (NEP) seems to be a promising avenue to a successful prediction, which will play an important part in natural hazard mitigation. NEP is difficult but possible, which needs well supporting.     

川西前陆盆地中—新生代沉积迁移与构造转换

川西前陆盆地中—新生代各构造层的残余厚度展布和沉积特征分析发现,四川克拉通周缘的前陆盆地在晚三叠世时期发育于龙门山山前,明显属于龙门山褶皱逆冲构造载荷所形成的前渊凹陷;侏罗纪早期的沉积地层呈面状分布,没有表现出显著的挠曲沉降,指示了一个构造相对平静的阶段;中侏罗世早期前渊凹陷迁移至龙门山北段和米仓山山前,前渊沉积从晚三叠世的北东向转换为近东西向,广泛的湖泊相沉积预示了前陆盆地的欠充填状态;中侏罗世中晚期,川西盆地沉降中心又迁移到大巴山山前,相应的挠曲变形又从近东西向转化为北西向,构成了大巴山的前渊凹陷;晚侏罗世—早白垩世时期,沉降中心再次回到米仓山山前,巨厚的前渊凹陷沉积指示了米仓山冲断带的主要活动时期;白垩纪末—古近纪的前渊凹陷则跃迁至雅安—名山地区。川西前陆盆地的同造山沉降中心以四川盆地中心为核心在西部和北部呈弧形迁移,沉积序列不断更替和叠加。中生界各构造层底界构造图显示现今的构造低部位位于川西北地区和川西南地区,在川西北地区均有东西走向的等值线分布,而川西南地区等值线走向则为北东-南西向。因此分析认为,晚侏罗世至早白垩世的构造变形可能控制了川西盆地现今的地层变形,形成了川西北地区的南北向构造挤压结构,而晚期的新生代构造变形则主要体现在川西盆地的西南部,形成北东-南西向的地层展布特征。     

Earthquake characteristics and building damage in high-intensity areas of Wenchuan earthquake I: Yingxiu town

On May 12, 2008, an Ms 8.0 earthquake occurred on the Longmen Mountain Fault in Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province, China. Based on the reported earthquake intensity and surface displacement distributions in the affected areas, the damages to buildings in high-intensity areas were investigated. This paper focused on the buildings in Yingxiu Town, Wenchuan County. The unreasonable structural design and structural type were found to be the main reason for the damages of buildings. The geological environment problems of the residential area were also discussed. This research would provide valuable reference for scientific earthquake-resistance design and reconstruction after earthquake disaster.     

汶川地震对望月寨滑坡稳定性影响研究

“5.12”汶川地震诱发大面积的山体滑坡,直接威胁人类的生命财产安全,但同时也为研究地震对滑坡的影响提供了宝贵的素材。以四川省理县望月寨滑坡为例,在对地震前后滑坡基本特征深入研究的基础上,采用极限平衡法和有限差分法对地震前后该滑坡的稳定性和应力应变特征进行了计算、模拟和对比分析,分析结果与地震前后滑坡的宏观地质现象均具有较高地吻合度。研究成果为深入分析地震对滑坡影响及防灾减灾提供了可靠依据。     

Surface deformation related to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,and mountain building of the Longmen Shan,eastern Tibetan Plateau

The 12 May 2008 M_s 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, China, was one of largest continental thrusting events worldwide. Based on interpretations of post-earthquake high-resolution remote sensing images and field surveys, we investigated the geometry, geomorphology, and kinematics of co-seismic surface ruptures, as well as seismic and geologic hazards along the Longmen Shan fold-and-thrust belt. Our results indicate that the Wenchuan earthquake occurred along the NE–SW-trending Yingxiu–Beichuan and Guanxian–Anxian faults in the Longmen Shan fold-and-thrust belt. The main surface rupture zones along the Yingxiu–Beichuan and Guanxian–Anxian fault zones are approximately 235 and 72 km in length, respectively. These sub-parallel ruptures may merge at depth. The Yingxiu–Donghekou surface rupture zone can be divided into four segments separated by discontinuities that appear as step-overs or bends in map view. Surface deformation is characterized by oblique reverse faulting with a maximum vertical displacement of approximately 10 m in areas around Beichuan County. Earthquake-related disasters (e.g., landslides) are linearly distributed along the surface rupture zones and associated river valleys.The Wenchuan earthquake provides new insights into the nature of mountain building within the Longmen Shan, eastern Tibetan Plateau. The total crustal shortening accommodated by this great earthquake was as much as 8.5 m, with a maximum vertical uplift of approximately 10 m. The present results suggest that ongoing mountain building of the Longmen Shan is driven mainly by crustal shortening and uplift related to repeated large seismic events such as the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Furthermore, rapid erosion within the Longmen Shan fold-and-thrust belt occurs along deep valleys and rupture zones following the occurrence of large-scale landslides triggered by earthquakes. Consequently, we suggest that crustal shortening related to repeated great seismic events, together with isostatic rebound induced by rapid erosion-related unloading, is a key component of the geodynamics that drive ongoing mountain building on the eastern Tibetan Plateau.     

上扬子克拉通北部晚古生代-中三叠世大陆边缘盆地的形成与演化

上扬子克拉通北部晚古生代-中三叠世的沉积盆地是在勉-略洋盆南侧发展起来的被动大陆边缘盆地, 在泥盆纪-中二叠世以稳定沉降为主, 向北以碳酸盐岩缓坡与台地向勉略洋盆过渡; 中二叠世末期受峨眉地裂运动影响形成隆坳相间的格局; 早-中三叠世构造体制由伸展变为挤压, 沉积建造由开阔海碳酸盐岩台地逐渐向半局限台地、半封闭海湾膏盐湖相以及陆相碎屑岩含煤岩系过渡.该陆缘盆地经历了晚三叠世上扬子北缘前陆盆地、中侏罗世-早白垩世川西、川北前陆盆地, 以及晚白垩世至今构造残留盆地的改造.其中, 晚三叠世须三-须六期上扬子北缘前陆盆地的前缘隆起大致沿汶川、剑阁和万源一线分布.热年代学分析结果表明, 汶川、剑阁和万源一线以南的上二叠统烃源岩在早中生代始终处于埋藏增温状态, 只是自晚白垩世才进入抬升降温阶段, 呈"同代"烃源岩的特征; 而汶川、剑阁和万源一线以北的龙门山、米仓山和大巴山山前冲断地区, 上二叠统烃源岩则围绕生烃窗经历了多次增温和降温过程, 热演化历史复杂, 呈"隔代"烃源岩的特征.因此, 对于上扬子克拉通北部晚古生代-中三叠世陆缘盆地的勘探, 汶川、剑阁和万源一线以南比其北侧更有利.     

Deep Background of Wenchuan Earthquake and the Upper Crust Structure beneath the Longmen Shan and Adjacent Areas

Abstract: By analyzing the deep seismic sounding profiles across the Longmen Shan, this paper focuses on the study of the relationship between the upper crust structure of the Longmen Shan area and the Wenchuan earthquake. The Longmen Shan thrust belt marks not only the topographical change, but also the lateral velocity variation between the eastern Tibetan Plateau and the Sichuan Basin. A low-velocity layer has consistently been found in the crust beneath the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, and ends beneath the western Sichuan Basin. The low-velocity layer at a depth of ~20 km beneath the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau has been considered as the deep condition for favoring energy accumulation that formed the great Wenchuan earthquake.     

Deep Background of Wenchuan Earthquake and the Upper Crust Structure beneath the Longmen Shan and Adjacent Areas

By analyzing the deep seismic sounding profiles across the Longmen Shan,this paper focuses on the study of the relationship between the upper crust structure of the Longmen Shan area and the Wenchuan earthquake.The Longmen Shan thrust belt marks not only the topographical change,but also the lateral velocity variation between the eastern Tibetan Plateau and the Sichuan Basin.A lowvelocity layer has consistently been found in the crust beneath the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, and ends beneath the ...