Empirical relationships between aftershock area dimensions and magnitude for earthquakes in the Mediterranean Sea region

Fault dimension estimates derived from the aftershock area extent of 36 shallow depth (≤ 31 km) earthquakes that occurred in the Mediterranean Sea region have been used in order to establish empirical relationships between length, width, area and surface-wave/moment magnitude. This dataset consists of events whose aftershock sequence was recorded by a dense local or regional network and the reported location errors did not exceed on average 3–5 km. Surface-wave magnitudes for these events were obtained from the NEIC database and/or published reports, while moment magnitudes as well as focal mechanisms were available from the Harvard/USGS catalogues. Contrary to the results of some previously published studies we found no evidence in our dataset that faulting type may have an effect on the fault dimension estimates and therefore we derived relationships for the whole of the dataset. Comparisons, by means of statistical F-tests, of our relationships with other previously published regional and global relationships were performed in order to check possible similarities or differences. Most such comparisons showed relatively low significance levels (< 95%), since the differences in source dimension estimates were large mainly for magnitudes lower than 6.5, becoming smaller with increasing magnitude. Some degree of similarity, however, could be observed between our fault length relationship and the one derived from aftershock area lengths of events in Greece, while a difference was found between our regional and global fault length relationships. A calculation of the ratio defined as the fault length, derived from our relationships, to the length estimated from regional empirical relationships involving surface ruptures showed that it can take a maximum value of about 7 for small magnitudes while it approaches unity at Ms 7.2. When calculating the same ratio using instead global empirical relationships we see the maximum value not exceeding 1.8, while unity is reached at Mw 7.8, indicating the existence of a strong regional variation in the fault lengths of earthquakes occurring in the Mediterranean Sea region. Also, a relationship between the logarithms of the rupture area and seismic moment is established and it is inferred that there is some variation of stress drop as a function of seismic moment. In particular, it is observed that for magnitudes lower than 6.6 the stress drop fluctuates around 10 bar, while for larger magnitudes the stress drop reaches a value as high as 60 bar.     

大地震前后实测地应力状态变化及其意义——以龙门山断裂带为例

实测地应力状态在连续地震事件前后的变化特征,对于应用地应力实测数据探索开展地震预报等研究有重要意义,但一直以来缺少典型实例研究。以龙门山断裂带西南段的跷碛和映秀地区为研究区,利用该地区汶川地震前至芦山地震后获得的地应力实测数据,分析了表征地应力状态的特征参数在汶川和芦山地震事件前后变化特征,探讨了其对地震预报研究的意义。研究表明,跷碛地区地应力状态特征参数K_HV、K_Hh和μ_m变化表现为芦山地震后值（QQ-14）大于汶川地震前（QQ-99）,QQ-99结果大于汶川地震后值（QQ-09）,而主应力梯度系数变化为QQ-09>QQ-14>QQ-99;分析认为K_HV、K_Hh和μ_m变化规律能准确反映汶川和芦山地震事件前后跷碛地区构造应力场演化特征,而仅用主应力随深度变化梯度系数变化特征,不能完全准确地反映构造应力场调整变化情况;映秀地区,除K_Hh外,主应力随深度变化梯度系数、K_HV和μ_m均表现为汶川地震后结果大于震前,其变化反映的应力场调整变化特征需要补充数据检验;利用地应力状态参数变化规律开展地震预报探索研究时,长期的、可对比的高质量地应力测量数据是研究有所突破的关键。研究成果对于龙门山地区构造应力场和减灾防灾研究有重要意义,对于应用地应力数据探索开展地震预报研究等有参考价值。      

Seismic behavior in central Taiwan: Response to stress evolution following the 1999 Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake

Following the 1999 M_w 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, a large amount of seismicity occurred in the Nantou region of central Taiwan. Among the seismic activities, eight M_w ⩾ 5.8 earthquakes took place following the Chi-Chi earthquake, whereas only four earthquakes with comparable magnitudes took place from 1900 to 1998. Since the seismicity rate during the Chi-Chi postseismic period has never returned to the background level, such seismicity activation cannot simply be attributed to modified Omori’s Law decay. In this work, we attempted to associate seismic activities with stress evolution. Based on our work, it appears that the spatial distribution of the consequent seismicity can be associated with increasing coseismic stress. On the contrary, the stress changes imparted by the afterslip; lower crust–upper mantle viscoelastic relaxation; and sequent events resulted in a stress drop in most of the study region. Understanding seismogenic mechanisms in terms of stress evolution would be beneficial to seismic hazard mitigation.     

Shear‐wave splitting and earthquake forecasting

Seismic shear‐wave splitting (SWS) monitors the low‐level deformation of fluid‐saturated microcracked rock. We report evidence of systematic SWS changes, recorded above small earthquakes, monitoring the accumulation of stress before earthquakes that allows the time and magnitude of impending large earthquakes to be stress‐forecast. The effects have been seen with hindsight before some 15 earthquakes ranging in magnitude from an M1.7 seismic swarm event in Iceland to the Ms7.7 Chi‐Chi Earthquake in Taiwan, including a successfully stress‐forecast of a M5.0 earthquake in SW Iceland. Characteristic increases in SWS time‐delays are observed before large earthquakes, which abruptly change to deceases shortly before the earthquake occurs. There is a linear relationship between magnitudes and logarithms of durations of both increases and decreases in SWS time‐delays before large impending earthquakes. However, suitably persistent swarms of small earthquakes are too scarce for routine stress‐forecasting. Reliable forecasting requires controlled‐source cross‐hole seismics between neighbouring boreholes in stress‐monitoring sites (SMS). It would be possible to stress‐forecast damaging earthquakes worldwide by a global network of SMS in real time.     

Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701–715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.     

Statistical Models of the Seismicity of the Vrancea Region, Romania

A parameterization derived from the Weibull distribution is used to model the seismic activity of the Vrancea region.The analysis of 498 crustal earthquakes with local magnitudes greater than 2.0, and 1377 subcrustal events with local magnitudes greater than 2.5 emphasizes that the shallow sequences show a strong clustering tendency, while the intermediate depth mainshock sequences are modeled by a completely random pattern in space and time. These results are not influenced by the magnitude threshold and the width of the time window.The difference between the seismicity patterns in the crust and in the subcrustal zone correlates with the difference between the stress field within these two regions.     

The Roer Valley Graben earthquake of 13 April 1992 and its seismotectonic setting

A moderately sized pure, normal dip-slip earthquake occurred in the Roer Valley Graben (RVG) near Roermond, The Netherlands on 13 April 1992 at 1h 20m UTC. This contribution presents an overview of the locations, fault-plane solutions and magnitudes obtained for the mainshock and the aftershocks by the different scientific groups involved in their analysis. The observed maximum intensity of VII is compared with that of other earthquakes in the region to illustrate the relatively low level of damage caused by the mainshock.
Using SH and Lg waves recorded at seven local and regional broadband stations, we determine a seismic moment of 1.4 × 10¹⁷ Nm, a static stress drop of 9.7 MPa and an average displacement of 33 cm over a rupture surface of approximately 11 km².
The seismotectonics of the region extending from the RVG to the city of Liège including the western part of the Rhenish Massif (WRM) and the eastern part of the Brabant Massif (EBM) is analysed based on the Roermond earthquake studies and data collected since 1985 by the Belgian seismic network. The geographical distribution of focal mechanism reveals four different seismotectonic regimes in this area. From stress tensor inversion we find that ₃ coincides with the minimum horizontal stress component in the RVG, the WRM and possibly in the EBM, while in the Liège region ₃ is approximately vertical. The minimum horizontal stress component shows a 30° rotation to the north in the WRM and the Liège region and possibly 50° in the EBM when compared with the minimum horizontal stress component in the RVG.     

Estimation of Coulomb stress changes and induced earthquake occurrences prediction in the region of Three Gorges Reservoir,China

In the region of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China, there has been occurrence of several frequent earthquakes of moderate intensity since reservoir impounding occurred in 2003. These earthquakes are generally believed to be induced by reservoir impoundment and water-level variations. Usually, the geo-stress will change, when natural earthquakes occur. Following this principle, this paper adopted the rate and state theory to simulate and estimate Coulomb stress changes in the TGR region and obtained the pattern of Coulomb stress changes with time and the event sequence as well as the distribution of Coulomb stress changes in space. First, the TGR regional catalogue was analyzed and processed, leading to quantification of the magnitude of completeness and all of the parameters that are used in the stress–seismicity inversion process, including the reference seismicity rates, characteristic relaxation time, fault constitutive parameters, and stress rates. Second, the temporal evolution of the stress changes in different time windows was computed and analyzed, and it was found that there is an association between the Coulomb stress changes and rates of increase in the cumulative number of earthquakes. In addition, the earthquake occurred in November 2008 (M _S = 4.1) was analyzed and attempted to simulate the distribution of stress changes in space through the stress–seismicity inversion model. The results proved that the modeled area coincides with the historical area of earthquakes that occurred after 2008. Finally, a prediction was made about the earthquake productivity rates after 2015, which showed a declining earthquake rate over time that ultimately returned to the background seismicity. This result is essentially in agreement with Omori’s law. To conclude, it is rational to use the stress-inversion method to analyze the relationship between induced earthquake seismicity and local stress changes as well as to simulate the area of earthquake occurrence and productivity rates of reservoir-induced earthquakes.     

The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability of moderate-to-large earthquakes in central Japan

The EEPAS (“Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale”) model is a space–time point-process model based on the precursory scale increase (Ψ) phenomenon and associated predictive scaling relations. It has previously been fitted to the New Zealand earthquake catalogue, and applied successfully in quasi-prospective tests on the CNSS catalogue for California for forecasting earthquakes with magnitudes above 5.75 and on the JMA catalogue of Japan for magnitudes above 6.75. Here we test whether the Ψ scaling relations extend to lower magnitudes, by applying EEPAS to depth-restricted subsets of the NIED catalogue of the Kanto area, central Japan, for magnitudes above 4.75. As in previous studies, the EEPAS model is found to be more informative than a quasi-static baseline model based on proximity to past earthquakes, and much more informative than the stationary uniform Poisson model. The information that it provides is illustrated by maps of the earthquake occurrence rate density, covering magnitudes from 5.0 to 8.0, for the central Japan region as at the beginning of year 2004, using the NIED and JMA catalogues to mid-2003.     

Depth variation of seismic source scaling relations: implications for earthquake hazard in southeastern Australia

Advances in earthquake data acquisition and processing techniques have allowed for improved quantification of source parameters for local Australian earthquakes. Until recently, only hypocentral locations and local magnitudes (M_L) had been determined routinely, with little attention given to the inversion of additional source parameters. The present study uses these new source data (e.g. seismic moment, stress drop, source dimensions) to further extend our understanding of seismicity and the continental stress regime of the Australian landmass and its peripheral regions.

Earthquake activity within Australia is typically low, and the proportion of small to large events (i.e. the b value) is also low. It is observed that average stress drops for southeastern Australian earthquakes appear to increase with seismic moment to relatively high levels, up to approximately 10 MPa for M_L 5.0 earthquakes. This is thought to be indicative of high compressive crustal stress, coupled with strong rocks and fault asperities. Furthermore, the data indicates that shallow focus earthquakes (shallower than 6 km) appear to produce lower than average stress drops than deeper earthquakes (between 6 and 20 km) with similar moment.

Recurrence estimates were obtained for a discrete seismogenic zone in southeastern Australia. Decreasing b values with increasing focal depth for this zone indicate that larger earthquakes (with high stress drops) tend to occur deeper in the crust. This may offer an explanation for the apparent increase of stress drop with hypocentral depth. Consequently, earthquake hazard estimates that assume a uniform Gutenburg–Richter distribution with depth (i.e. constant b value) may be too conservative and therefore slightly overestimate seismic hazard for surface sites in southeastern Australia.     

Source parameters of March 10 and September 13, 2007, United Arab Emirates earthquakes

On March 10 and September 13, 2007 two earthquakes with moment magnitudes 3.66 and 3.94, respectively, occurred in the eastern part of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The two events were widely felt in the northern Emirates and Oman and were accompanied by a few aftershocks. Ground motions from these events were well recorded by the broadband stations of Dubai (UAE) and Oman seismological networks and provide an excellent opportunity to study the tectonic process and present day stress field acting in this area. In this study, we report the focal mechanisms of the two main shocks by two methods: first motion polarities and regional waveform moment tensor inversion. Our results indicate nearly pure normal faulting mechanisms with a slight strike slip component. We associated the fault plane trending NNE–SSW with a suggested fault along the extension of the faults bounded Bani Hamid area. The seismicity distribution between two earthquake sequences reveals a noticeable gap that may be a site of a future event. The source parameters (seismic moment, moment magnitude, fault radius, stress drop and displacement across the fault) were also estimated from displacement spectra. The moment magnitudes were very consistent with waveform inversion. The recent deployment of seismic networks in Dubai and Oman reveals tectonic activity in the northern Oman Mountains that was previously unknown. Continued observation and analysis will allow for characterization of seismicity and assessment of seismic hazard in the region.     

Seismotectonics and seismicity of the Silakhor region, Iran

This paper deals with seismotectonic and seismicity of the Silakhor region that shows high seismic activity in western Iran. Silakhor is a vast plain with several villages and cities of Dorud and Borujerd and a small town of Chalanchulan that were destroyed and/or damaged many times by large earthquakes. This paper addresses the historical and instrumental earthquakes and their causative faults, seismotectonic provinces and seismotectonic zones of the region. Available seismic data were normalized by means of time normalization technique that resulted in the magnitude-frequency relation for the Silakhor area and estimation of the return period of earthquakes with different magnitudes. Some active faults in this region include the Dorud fault, the main Zagros thrust, the Galehhatam fault, the Sahneh fault and others. Among them, the Dorud fault is an earthquake fault and is the cause for most of the large and intermediate earthquakes in the region. The return period of large earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 7.0 (Ms) is very low, however, the occurrence of destructive earthquakes is greater in the region than in the neighboring provinces. The study proves the high seismicity of this zone and it is required to develop an accurate national plan for future building and reinforcement of the existing buildings in this region.     

Triggered seismicity in the Andean arc region via static stress variation by the MW = 8.8, February 27, 2010, Maule earthquake

We localized crustal earthquakes in the Andean arc, between 35°S and 36°S, from December 2009 to May 2010. This research shows a seismicity increase, in a narrow longitudinal area, of more than nine times after the great M_w 8.8 Maule earthquake.The localized seismicity defines an area of ∼80 km long and ∼18 km wide and NNW to NNE trend. The M_d magnitudes varied from 0.7 to 3.1 except for two earthquakes with M_w of 3.9 and 4.5, located in the northern end of the area. The focal mechanisms for these two last events were normal/strike-slip and strike-slip respectively.During 2011, a network of 13 temporary stations was installed in the trasarc region in Malargüe, Argentina. Sixty earthquakes were localized in the study region during an 8 month period.We explored how changes in Coulomb conditions associated with the mega-thrust earthquake triggered subsequent upper-plate events in the arc region. We assumed the major proposed structures as receiver faults and used previously published earthquake source parameters and slip distribution for the Maule quake. The largest contribution to static stress change, up to 5 bars, derives from unclamping resulting consistent with co-seismic dilatational deformation inferred from GPS observations in the region and subsidence in nearby volcanoes caused by magma migration.Three different Quaternary tectonic settings–extensional, strike-slip and compressional-have been proposed for the arc region at these latitudes. We found that the unclamping produced by the Maule quake could temporarily change the local regime to normal/strike-slip, or at least it would favor the activation of Quaternary NNE to N-trending dextral strike-slip faults with dextral transtensional movement.     

中国活动构造与地震活动

文中研究了中国活动构造与地震活动的关系 ,包括活动断裂、活动褶皱、活动盆地和活动块体与地震活动的关系。全部 8级、绝大部分 7～ 7.9级地震均发生在活动块体边界活动构造带内 ;但对内部有次级活动构造的块体而言 ,少数 7～ 7.9级地震和部分 6～ 6 .9级地震也可能发生在块体内部的活动构造带上。大地震与活动断裂、活动褶皱和活动盆地的关系十分紧密 ,70多次 7级以上地震的同震破裂带及其位移参数与活动构造完全一致 ,7～ 8级地震均发生在活动断裂、活动褶皱和活动盆地带内 ,仅个别地震由于发生在高原和高山区 ,情况不明 ,6～ 6 .9级地震则大约有 5 %～ 15 %发生在活动构造带外或者情况不明。由于中国各断块区应力环境的差别 ,各区活动构造变形和地震发震构造类型也有所不同 ,文中对不同构造区走滑型 ,逆断裂褶皱型和正断裂拉张型活动构造和地震发震构造模型作了讨论。     

Seismic risk assessment at the proposed site of Gemsa wind power station,southwestern coast of Gulf of Suez,Egypt

Gemsa has been chosen as the site for one of a new generation of power stations along the south-western margin of the Gulf of Suez. This site has been affected by a number of destructive earthquakes (M_w> 5), in addition to large number of earthquakes with magnitudes of less than 5. In this study seismic activities in the region were collected and re-evaluated, and the main earthquake prone zones were identified. It is indicated that this site is affected by the southern Gulf of Suez, northern Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba source zones. The southern Gulf of Suez source zone is the nearest to the proposed site. The stochastic simulation method has been applied to estimate the Peak GroundAcceleration at the site of the proposed Gemsa power plant. It was noticed that the pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) reaches 175 cm/sec2 resulting from the southern Gulf of Suez seismic source. In addition, the response spectrum was conducted with a damping value of 5% of the critical damping, and the predominant period reached 0.1sec at the site. These results should be taken into consideration by civil engineers and decision-makers for designing earthquake resistant structures.     

Tsunami magnitudes in Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia

The regional characteristics of tsunami magnitudes in the SE Asia region are discussed in relation to earthquake magnitudes during the period from 1960 to 1994. Tsunami magnitudes on the Imamura-Iida scale are investigated by the author's method (Hatori 1979, 1986) using the data of inundation heights near the source area and tide-gauge records observed in Japan. The magnitude values of the Taiwan tsunamis showed relatively to be small. On the contrary, the magnitudes of tsunamis in the vicinities of the Philippines and Indonesia exceed more than 1–2 grade (tsunami heights: 2–5 times) compared to earthquakes with similar size on the circum-Pacific zone. The relation between tsunami magnitude, m, and earthquake magnitude, M _s, is expressed as m = 2.66 M _s– 17.5 for these regions. For example, the magnitudes for the 1976 Mindanao tsunami (M _s= 7.8, 3702 deaths) and the 1992 Flores tsunami (M _s= 7.5, 1713 deaths) were determined to be m = 3 and m = 2.5, respectively. The focal depth of tsunamigenic earthquakes is shallower thand< 36 km, and the detectively of tsunamis is small for deep earthquakes being d > 40 km. For future tsunamis, it is indispensable to take precautions against shallow earthquakes having the magnitudes M _s> 6.5.     

Numerical modelling of the three-dimensional stress field in southwestern Japan

It has been inferred from the focal mechanism of earthquakes and their hypocenter distribution (Shiono, 1977) that the stress field in southwestern Japan indicates complicated features; a NW-SE compression at shallow depths along the Nankai trough, an E-W or ESE-WNW compression in the inland crust, an extension parallel to the leading edge of the Philippine Sea plate at subcrustal depths in the region from the southern Chubu to northwestern Shikoku, and a down-dip tension beneath the Kyushu island.In order to investigate possible sources of these complex features of the stress state, a three-dimensional finite element method is employed to model the configuration of the subducting Philippine Sea plate, taking into consideration the following three possible types of forces:

1. (1) A negative buoyancy due to the density contrast between the subducting plate and the surrounding mantle.

2. (2) A northwestward compressive force generated by the movement of the Philippine Sea plate.

3. (3) A westward compressive force due to the movement of the Pacific plate.

For various combinations of different magnitudes of these forces, and of different elastic moduli, the stresses at a number of selected sites are calculated, and their directions are compared with those inferred from the focal mechanism and other geophysical information.It is found that the observed extensional stresses parallel to the leading edge of the subducting Philippine Sea plate may be caused mainly by the negative buoyancy. The northwestward compressive force may not play an important role in generating the complex stress field in southwestern Japan. The observed E-W compressional stress field prevailing in the inland region appears to result mainly from the westward-moving Pacific plate. The present results suggest that if a thin low-velocity transitional layer exists just above the subducting Philippine Sea plate, it could give appreciable effects on the mechanism of low-angled thrust faulting off the Kii peninsula and the Shikoku island.The magnitude of the shear stress in the continental crust and in the subducting plate is estimated to be of the order of several hundred bars, although the calculated shear stresses are considerably affected by the configuration of the subducting plate and also by the applied forces.It is interesting that the stress distribution appears to have some relations to seismicity of subcrustal earthquakes, and to the rupture process of large thrust earthquakes along the plate boundary.     

Source parameters of earthquakes in the reservoir-triggered seismic (RTS) zone of Koyna–Warna, Western India

New empirical relations are derived for source parameters of the Koyna–Warna reservoir-triggered seismic zone in Western India using spectral analysis of 38 local earthquakes in the magnitude range M _L 3.5–5.2. The data come from a seismic network operated by the CSIR-National Geophysical Research Institute, India, during March 2005 to April 2012 in this region. The source parameters viz. seismic moment, source radius, corner frequency and stress drop for the various events lie in the range of 10¹³–10¹⁶ Nm, 0.1–0.4 km, 2.9–9.4 Hz and 3–26 MPa, respectively. Linear relationships are obtained among the seismic moment (M ₀), local magnitude (M _L), moment magnitude (M _w), corner frequency (fc) and stress drop (?σ). The stress drops in the Koyna–Warna region are found to increase with magnitude as well as focal depths of earthquakes. Interestingly, accurate depths derived from moment tensor inversion of earthquake waveforms show a strong correlation with the stress drops, seemingly characteristic of the Koyna–Warna region.     

Present Kinematic Regime and Recent Seismicity of Gulf Suez,Egypt

In this study we computed recent seismicity and present kinematic regime in the northern and middle zones of Gulf of Suez as inferred from moment tensor settlings and focal mechanism of local earthquakes that happened in this region. On 18 and 22 of July, 2014 two moderate size earthquakes of local magnitudes 4.2 and 4.1 struck the northern zone of Gulf of Suez near Suez City. These events are instrumentally recorded by Egyptian National Seismic Network (ENSN). The earthquakes have been felt at Suez City and greater Cairo metropolitan zone while no losses were reported. The source mechanism and source parameters of the calculated events were considered by the near-source waveform data listed at very broadband stations of ENSN and supported by the P-wave polarity data of short period stations. The new settling method and software used deem the action of the source time function, which has been ignored in most of the program series of the moment tensor settling analysis with near source seismograms. The obtained results from settling technique indicate that the estimated seismic moments of both earthquakes are 0.6621E + 15 and 0.4447E + 15 Nm conforming to a moment magnitude Mw 3.8 and 3.7 respectively. The fault plan settlings obtained from both settling technique and polarity of first-arrival indicate the dominance of normal faulting. We also evaluated the stress field in north and middle zones of Gulf of Suez using a multiple inverse method. The prime strain axis shows that the deformation is taken up mainly as stretching in the E–W and NE–SW direction.     

Seismicity changes associated with reservoir loading

Changes in seismic activity have been related to the filling of large reservoirs in over thirty cases. These changes range from variations in the level of micro-earthquake activity detectable only with instruments of high sensitivity to destructive earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 6. On the other hand, the filling of many other large reservoirs has not been accompanied by increased seismicity.

A number of factors may contribute to the generation or absence of post-impounding seismicity. Increased vertical stress due to the load of the reservoir and decreased effective stress due to increased pore pressure can modify the stress regime in the reservoir region. Whether or not these stress changes are sufficient to generate earthquake activity will depend on a complex interaction of the induced stress with the state of pre-existing stress near the reservoir, and on the geologic and hydrologic conditions at the site. The combined effect of increased vertical load and increased pore pressure will have the greatest tendency to increase activity in regions where the maximum compressive stress is vertical (normal faulting). In regions where the minimum compressive stress is vertical (thrust faulting) increased stress due to a vertical load should have a minimum effect. For all of the larger reservoir-induced earthquakes the stress system determined from fault plane solutions is in agreement with the pre-existing stress field in the region of the reservoir. These earthquakes are all of strike-slip or normal type, there being no reported cases of large induced earthquakes with thrusting mechanisms.

The potential for major changes in seismicity may be highest in regions of moderate strain accumulation (low to moderate natural seismicity). In areas of high strain accumulation and high levels of natural seismicity, the stress changes induced by the reservoir will be small compared to natural variations. In aseismic areas, with low strain accumulation, the reservoir-induced stresses may be insufficient to raise the stress level to a state of failure.