改进的加权证据权模型及其在个旧锡铜矿产资源预测中的应用

为了探讨新的加权系数估计方法对于消除或减弱证据层不满足条件独立性假设时对预测结果的影响, 对加权证据权模型的加权系数估计方法进行了新的探讨,尝试用顺序估计法估计加权系数.加权系数的顺序估计法是将加权证据权模型与基于模糊预测对象的证据权模型相结合,将证据层按照一定顺序逐步加入到加权证据权模型中,在加入到模型的过程中依次用已经获得的后验概率作为模糊训练层对证据层加入到模型的顺序进行修正,并通过条件相关系数的方法估计加权系数.分别以1组多元正态分布模拟数据和个旧锡铜多金属矿产资源预测为例,比较了多种模型的后验概率,结果表明加权证据权模型对减弱证据层不满足条件独立性假设所产生的影响是有效的.      

加权证据权模型和逐步证据权模型及其在个旧锡铜矿产资源预测中的应用

为了消除和减弱当证据层不满足条件独立性假设时对预测结果产生的影响, 提出了逐步证据权模型和加权证据权模型.加权证据权模型通过对logit模型进行修改, 对各个证据层给予一定的权重, 以调整由于证据层与其他证据层的条件相关性对模型的影响; 逐步证据权模型是将证据层按照一定的顺序逐步加入到模型中, 在加入到模型的过程中依次用已经获得的后验概率作为模糊训练层的方法.以个旧锡铜多金属矿产资源预测为例, 应用4种证据权模型的后验概率进行异常圈定, 结果表明两种新的模型对减弱证据层不满足条件独立性假设所产生的影响是有效的.      

增强证据权(BoostWofE)新方法在矿产资源定量评价中的应用

证据权方法是矿产资源定量评价的最常用方法之一,尤其是在GIS环境下,证据权方法具有简便、直观、易实现等优点。然而,证据权模型对证据图层之间满足条件独立性的要求过于苛刻。实际应用中证据图层之间往往不满足条件独立性而导致后验概率计算结果的偏差,这一数学模型上的缺陷严重影响到该方法的使用范围,甚至有时造成预测人员对如何构建证据图层的误解。提出了一种新的增强证据权的模型和计算方法:该模型按顺序加入证据图层,依次计算证据图层的条件权重,并以此累积更新后验概率;新的计算方法可依次对训练点集(预测对象)进行加权处理,并以此为基础逐次计算证据图层的条件权重。介绍了增强证据权理论模型和计算方法,并通过应用实例对比了普通证据权方法和增强证据权方法的应用效果。结果表明:由于增强证据权模型不要求证据图层之间具备条件独立性,它克服了证据权模型的缺陷,显著提高了证据权方法的应用精度,有望扩大证据权方法的应用范围。     

The Application of Weighted Logistic Regression Model in Prediction of Porphyry Copper Deposit——take Zharma—Sawur metallogenic belt,China—Kazakhstan border area,as an example

加权Logistic回归是基于GIS成矿预测的主要方法之一,其模型是不同于线性模型的一种类型.它具有强大的空间分析功能、适用性强、不受任何独立条件的约束、预测结果更可靠,因此在矿产资源评价研究中得到了很多地质学家的青睐.以矿床模型和成矿理论为基础,加权Logistic回归分析模型在成矿预测中的应用主要包括三部分:加权Logistic回归模型的建立及其应用、成矿有利度综合评价、成矿远景区圈定.本文以中国—哈萨克斯坦边境地区扎尔玛—萨吾尔成矿带斑岩型铜矿为例,探讨了基于GIS的加权Logistic回归模型在成矿预测中的应用.     

基于证据权法的公路路基岩溶塌陷危险性评价

将证据权模型应用在公路路基岩溶发育强度分区中,在工程作用下岩溶强发育区易发生岩溶塌陷。介绍了证据权模型的方法。在丹霞枢纽互通区域,应用Arc GIS将研究区划分为5m×5m的栅格,考虑地层岩性、地下水距地面距离、顶板厚度、距断层距离4个证据因子,然后进行证据因子优选,通过叠加分析,得出岩溶发育强度的后验概率,并进行条件独立性检验,利用CAPP曲线确定阈值将后验概率分区。应用ROC曲线进行预测的精度评价,预测正确概率为66.2%。最后结果表明,证据权模型应用在公路路基岩溶方面可行。     

混合模糊证据权模型在河北承德煤炭资源预测中的应用

应用模糊逻辑法、加权证据权法相结合的混合模糊证据权模型和GeoDASGIS技术开展了承德煤炭资源预测研究。采用模糊逻辑法对与煤炭矿床有关的证据层进行了系统的处理和分析,并在此基础上采用加权证据权方法编制了成矿后验概率图,最终划分出5个主要的找矿远景区。研究结果不仅对进一步开展预测区优选评价具有重要的参考意义,而且为混合知识驱动与数据驱动的混合预测模型提供了一种可借鉴的有效方法。     

加权Logistic回归模型在斑岩铜矿预测中的应用——以中—哈边境扎尔玛—萨吾尔成矿带为例

加权Logistic回归是基于GIS成矿预测的主要方法之一,其模型是不同于线性模型的一种类型。它具有强大的空间分析功能、适用性强、不受任何独立条件的约束、预测结果更可靠,因此在矿产资源评价研究中得到了很多地质学家的青睐。以矿床模型和成矿理论为基础,加权Logistic回归分析模型在成矿预测中的应用主要包括三部分:加权Logistic回归模型的建立及其应用、成矿有利度综合评价、成矿远景区圈定。本文以中国—哈萨克斯坦边境地区扎尔玛—萨吾尔成矿带斑岩型铜矿为例,探讨了基于GIS的加权Logistic回归模型在成矿预测中的应用。     

基于模糊预测对象的证据权方法及其在土地沙漠化评价中的应用

为了使在地理信息系统中被广泛用于点事件预测的证据权方法能对面事件进行评价和预测, 提出了一种新的基于模糊训练层的证据权方法.它是一种更广泛的证据权方法, 与普通证据权方法所不同的是, 它的训练层是模糊集合, 其取值是它的隶属度.通过适当的变换也可以把点训练层转换为模糊集合.因此, 该方法可以对面事件、点事件和线事件进行评价和预测.该方法可以处理训练层和证据层均为模糊集合的情况, 被称为双重模糊证据权方法.作为该方法的一个应用实例, 本文介绍毛乌素沙漠边缘的晋陕蒙地区土地沙漠化评价的应用实例.      

基于矢量结构GIS的证据加权模型

大多数GIS软件平台的数据结构是矢量形式的,因此,在矢量结构GIS中实现矿产资源预测的证据加权模型具有一定的现实意义.本文初步探讨了基于矢量结构GIS的证据加权模型的计算机算法,以MapInfo为软件平台,用该平台的二次开发语言MapBasic编制了相应的计算机程序,使从事GIS矿产资源预测的研究人员可以通过MapInfo软件平台实现证据加权法,开展矿产资源潜力制图研究.     

基于证据权法的成矿远景预测空间分析模型研究:以MAPGIS空间分析建模为例

在证据权法成矿远景定量预测模型及其优劣势分析的基础上,提出了以多维空间线性变换方法改进证据权法,采用"舍弃法"解决证据独立性问题,进行了基于因子分析的公因子方差赋权与方差贡献赋权的模型修正,从而使正-负证据权赋值与"1-0"赋值等价,将证据权法拓展为变量构置、筛选及斌值(变换)的准则(方法).将综合信息成矿远景预测概括...     

Chatham Rise nodular phosphate — Modelling the prospectivity of a lag deposit (off-shore New Zealand): A critical tool for use in resource development and deep sea mining

After almost five decades of episodic exploration, feasibility studies are now being completed to mine the deep-water nodular phosphate deposit on the central Chatham Rise. Weights of evidence (WofE) and fuzzy logic prospectivity models have been used in these studies to help in mapping of the exploration and resource potential, to constrain resource estimation, to aid with geotechnical engineering and mine planning studies and to provide background geological data for the environmental consent process. Prospectivity modelling was carried out in two stages using weights of evidence and fuzzy logic techniques. A WofE prospectivity model covering the area of best data coverage was initially developed to define the geological and environmental variables that control the distribution of phosphate on the Chatham Rise and map areas where mineralised nodules are most likely to be present. The post-probability results from this model, in conjunction with unique conditions and confidence maps, were used to guide environmental modelling for setting aside protected zones, and also to assist with mine planning and future exploration planning. A regional scale fuzzy logic model was developed guided by the results of the spatial analysis of the WofE model, elucidating where future exploration should be targeted to give the best chance of success in expanding the known resource. The development work to date on the Chatham Rise for nodular phosphate mineralisation is an innovative example of how spatial data modelling techniques can be used not only at the exploration stage, but also to constrain resource estimation and aid with environmental studies, thereby greatly reducing development costs, improving the economics of mine planning and reducing the environmental impact of the project.     

证据权模型中两种预测单元划分方式对比

证据权模型作为一种数据综合方法已被广泛应用于矿产资源定量预测与评价。在模糊证据权基础上,发展了基于地质单元思想的矢量证据图层构建和数据综合方法,并通过实例作具体阐述：它以矿点缓冲区图层作为训练图层,以各证据变量图层在空间上的叠置所形成的唯一地质单元作为评价对象,统一计算各个证据变量的证据权重,进而基于地质单元进行证据综合和后验概率成图。与基于栅格（或规则格网）的模型不同,基于矢量证据权模型以具有明确地质内涵的地质单元（而非规则网格单元）为预测单元,易于解释,并且消除了边界误差;相比基于规则格网划分所得到的成矿单元,以矿床（点）缓冲区作为训练对象,提高了已知矿点的代表性。实例表明：若预测单元大小为初始栅格大小整数倍,各缓冲等级平均面积计算误差为0.26%,否则面积平均误差达到6%;即使在预测单元大小为初始栅格大小整数倍情况下,矿点平均计算误差也达到4.78%。因此,基于地质单元思想的证据权预测单元划分方法在精度上优于基于栅格或规则格网方法。     

Prospectivity mapping for “Zhuxi-type” copper-tungsten polymetallic deposits in the Jingdezhen region of Jiangxi Province,South China

The Zhuxi deposit is the largest copper-tungsten polymetallic deposit in the world and is in Jiangxi Province in South China. The ore body is characterized by hydrothermal-vein deposits of copper, lead, and zinc minerals at shallow levels, skarn deposits of tungsten and copper minerals at middle levels, and altered-granite-hosted copper and tungsten minerals at depth. Such metallogenic systems are typically intrusion-related. The intrusive granites related to the Zhuxi polymetallic deposit have been dated at 152.9 Ma to 146.9 Ma. The intrusions provided the thermal energy and the source material for the ore mineralization. Skarns mineralization, the main type of ore mineralization, developed in the contact zone of Carboniferous-Permian formations with the granites. Nappe structures changed the dip of the ore bodies from steep in the top part to gentle in the bottom. NE-trending faults provided the fluid pathways and controlled the geological framework and distribution of ore deposits on a regional scale. In this study, recognition exploration criteria were analyzed based on a mineral deposit model and the geological setting. Extraction of favorable geological information and GIS-based data-integration methods were used for mineral-prospectivity mapping of Zhuxi-type polymetallic deposits. Buffering analysis was employed to extract structural information (e.g. faults) and lithologic or stratigraphic information (e.g. granites or geologic units). The singularity method and spatially weighted principal component analysis were used to enhance and delineate geochemical anomalies. The derivative norm was utilized to extract magnetic-gradient anomalies associated with intrusive granites. Student t-test of weights-of-evidence (WofE) proved to be an effective way to optimize threshold values for binarization of variables as evidence layers by evaluating the spatial correlation between known deposits and geological variables. The posterior probabilities of WofE gave a relative estimation of mineralization potential. Areas delineated by high posterior probability had much higher potentiality for the discovery of new deposits where had none had been found yet.     

GIS-based prospectivity-mapping based on geochemical multivariate analysis technology: A case study of MVT Pb–Zn deposits in the Huanyuan-Fenghuang district,northwestern Hunan Province,China

This paper demonstrates a partial least-squares regression (PLS) method for geochemical modelling, and then uses the models and geological favourable features to obtain mineral potential maps. The PLS is one of multivariate analysis technologies, which can identify variations in associations and correlations among geochemical elements and mineralisation. The method is here used to calculate principal components as well as to identify correlations between Pb–Zn (mineralization) and 25 stream sediment elements for constructing geochemical models in the Huayuan-Fenghuang district of northwestern Hunan Province, China. The models showing the distribution of geochemical anomaly are useful in interpreting the distribution of faults and the Cambrian Qingxudong Formation (ore-bearing formation), and to better define the architecture on mineralisation in the study area. In addition, the models and other favourable features (proxies) are easily integrated into single possibility map by Boost Weights-of-Evidence (Boost WofE) approach for targets.     

Combining fractal analysis of mineral deposit clustering with weights of evidence to evaluate patterns of mineralization: Application to copper deposits of the Mount Isa Inlier, NW Queensland, Australia

The clustering of mineral occurrences and their spatial associations with particular geological features are critical aspects of mineral distributions for exploration and understanding ore genesis. Variations in the degree of clustering of mineral occurrences or geological features can be measured by fractal dimensions, obtained from a shifting box counting method. Spatial associations between mineral occurrences and geological features can be quantified by the weights of evidence (WofE) method using the contrast value, which increases with the strength of the spatial relationship. A new method is proposed to evaluate mineral occurrence distributions by combining the power of fractal analysis of clustering with the WofE approach. The method compares the correlation between the variation in degree of clustering of mineral occurrences and a geological feature in a study area, with the contrast value of the same feature. The possible outcomes can be simplified into four scenarios, depending on whether the correlation in variation of clustering and the contrast are high or low, respectively. Each outcome has specific exploration implications. If either a high correlation in variation of clustering or a high contrast value is obtained, the geological feature can be used for exploration targeting.The integrated fractal and WofE approach is applied to copper occurrences in the Proterozoic Mount Isa Inlier, NW Queensland, Australia, which hosts large numbers of copper deposits (1,869 occurrences), including the world class Mount Isa copper deposit. Variation in clustering of copper occurrences has a positive correlation with variation in clustering of fault bends (R = 0.823), fault intersections (R = 0.862) and mafic rocks (R = 0.885). WofE results indicate that the copper occurrences are spatially associated with fault intersections and bends and with mafic rocks. Analyses were carried out separately for the two major lithostratigraphic sequences in the Inlier, the Eastern and Western Successions. The Western Succession copper occurrences are apparently more clustered than those of the Eastern Succession, which may reflect a lower degree of exploration and/or geological factors. The association of copper occurrences with mafic rocks compared with fault bends and intersections is greater in the Eastern Succession, which may reflect genetic factors. Correlations in the variation of clustering of mineral occurrences and geological features have a linear relationship with the contrast values, and the spatial association between all geological features and copper occurrences constitute high correlation/high contrast cases. The linear relationship suggests that the geological features that control the clustering of the copper occurrences could be the same features that control their localization.     

Prospectivity for epithermal gold–silver deposits in the Deseado Massif,Argentina

Previous prospectivity modelling for epithermal Au–Ag deposits in the Deseado Massif, southern Argentina, provided regional-scale prospectivity maps that were of limited help in guiding exploration activities within districts or smaller areas, because of their low level of detail. Because several districts in the Deseado Massif still need to be explored, prospectivity maps produced with higher detail would be more helpful for exploration in this region.We mapped prospectivity for low- and intermediate-sulfidation epithermal deposits (LISEDs) in the Deseado Massif at both regional and district scales, producing two different prospectivity models, one at regional scale and the other at district-scale. The models were obtained from two datasets of geological evidence layers by the weights-of-evidence (WofE) method. We used more deposits than in previous studies, and we applied the leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) method, which allowed using all deposits for training and validating the models. To ensure statistical robustness, the regional and district-scale models were selected amongst six combinations of geological evidence layers based on results from conditional independence tests.The regional-scale model (1000 m spatial resolution), was generated with readily available data, including a lithological layer with limited detail and accuracy, a clay alteration layer derived from a Landsat 5/7 band ratio, and a map of proximity to regional-scale structures. The district-scale model (100 m spatial resolution) was generated from evidence layers that were more detailed, accurate and diverse than the regional-scale layers. They were also more cumbersome to process and combine to cover large areas. The evidence layers included clay alteration and silica abundance derived from ASTER data, and a map of lineament densities. The use of these evidence layers was restricted to areas of favourable lithologies, which were derived from a geological map of higher detail and accuracy than the one used for the regional-scale prospectivity mapping.The two prospectivity models were compared and their suitability for prediction of the prospectivity in the district-scale area was determined. During the modelling process, the spatial association of the different types of evidence and the mineral deposits were calculated. Based on these results the relative importance of the different evidence layers could be determined. It could be inferred which type of geological evidence could potentially improve the modelling results by additional investigation and better representation.We conclude that prospectivity mapping for LISEDs at regional and district-scales were successfully carried out by using WofE and LOOCV methods. Our regional-scale prospectivity model was better than previous prospectivity models of the Deseado Massif. Our district-scale prospectivity model showed to be more effective, reliable and useful than the regional-scale model for mapping at district level. This resulted from the use of higher resolution evidential layers, higher detail and accuracy of the geological maps, and the application of ASTER data instead of Landsat ETM + data. District-scale prospectivity mapping could be further improved by: a) a more accurate determination of the age of mineralization relative to that of lithological units in the districts; b) more accurate and detailed mapping of the favourable units than what is currently available; c) a better understanding of the relationships between LISEDs and the geological evidence used in this research, in particular the relationship with hydrothermal clay alteration, and the method of detection of the clay minerals; and d) inclusion of other data layers, such as geochemistry and geophysics, that have not been used in this study.     

基于AHP的DRASTIC模型对莱州地区地下水脆弱性研究

地下水脆弱性评价是作为地质环境评价的一部分,目前国内外已有众多研究,并提出多种评价模型,其中以DRASTIC方法模型使用最为广泛。AHP（层次分析法）是一种层次权重决策分析方法,综合专家经验与理论数据,可以实现定性与定量二者有效的统一结合,更真实客观的反映研究区评价结果。文中以莱州地区为研究区,在全面调查区内的地质条件、水文地质条件、地形地貌、气象等实际情况的基础上,利用AHP法对目前使用的DRASTIC方法模型进行改进。对原模型中的7个参数进行权重重新取值,然后建立一套符合研究区的地下水脆弱性模型,并进行评价分区,最终绘制了地下水脆弱性分区图。     

专家证据权重法及其在东昆仑地区的应用

证据权重法是基于GIS矿产资源评价的主要方法之一,在东昆仑地区应用该方法后发现其结果和东昆仑地区的总体找(成)矿潜力实际情况不相符,研究后认为其原因是没有考虑东昆仑地区地质研究程度低、研究程度不均一且地质构造背景差异大等客观事实.为此,我们将东昆仑地区的基础地质、区域成矿规律及典型矿床研究等方面取得的认识("知识系统")和"证据权重法"结合起来,提出并建立了一个"专家证据权重法"矿产资源定量预测评价系统,该系统实际上相当于一个专家系统,其根据知识系统对各证据因子赋权重的过程体现了地质专家的思想.我们将该系统应用到东昆仑地区获得了满意的结果,这对其他研究程度低地区进行矿产资源评价工作具有重要的指导和借鉴意义.