An Exploration of the Interplay between the Measurement Uncertainty and the Number of Samples in Contaminated Land Investigations

In the assessment of potentially contaminated land, the number of samples and the uncertainty of the measurements (including that from sampling) are both important factors in the planning and implementation of an investigation. Both parameters also effect the interpretation of the measurements produced, and the process of making decisions based upon those measurements. However, despite their importance, previously there has been no method for assessing if an investigation is fit‐for‐purpose with respect to both of these parameters. The Whole Site Optimised Contaminated Land Investigation (WSOCLI) method has been developed to address this issue, and to allow the optimisation of an investigation with respect to both the number of samples and the measurement uncertainty, using an economic loss function. This function was developed to calculate an ‘expectation of (financial) loss’, incorporating costs of the investigation itself, subsequent land remediation, and potential consequential costs. To allow the evaluation of the WSOCLI method a computer program ‘OCLISIM’ has been developed to produce sample data from simulated contaminated land investigations. One advantage of such an approach is that as the ‘true’ contaminant concentrations are created by the program, these values are known, which is not the case in a real contaminated land investigation. This enables direct comparisons between functions of the ‘true’ concentrations and functions of the simulated measurements. A second advantage of simulation for this purpose is that the WSOCLI method can be tested on many different patterns and intensities of contamination. The WSOCLI method performed particularly well at high sampling densities producing expectations of financial loss that approximated to the true costs, which were also calculated by the program. WSOCLI was shown to produce notable trends in the relationship between the overall cost (i.e., expectation of loss) and both the number of samples and the measurement uncertainty, which are: (a) low measurement uncertainty was optimal when the decision threshold was between the mean background and the mean hot spot concentrations. (b) When the hot spot mean concentration is equal to or near the decision threshold, then mid‐range measurement uncertainties were optimal. (c) When the decision threshold exceeds the mean of the hot spot, mid‐range measurement uncertainties were optimal. The trends indicate that the uncertainty may continue to rise if the difference between hot spot mean and the decision threshold increases further. (d) In any of the above scenarios, the optimal measurement uncertainty was lower if there is a large geochemical variance (i.e., heterogeneity) within the hot spot. (e) The optimal number of samples for each scenario was indicated by the WSOCLI method, and was between 50 and 100 for the scenarios considered generally; although there was significant noise in the predictions, which needs to be addressed in future work to allow such conclusions to be clearer.     

A model for estimating the value of sampling programs and the optimal number of samples for contaminated soil

A model is presented for estimating the value of information of sampling programs for contaminated soil. The purpose is to calculate the optimal number of samples when the objective is to estimate the mean concentration. A Bayesian risk–cost–benefit decision analysis framework is applied and the approach is design-based. The model explicitly includes sample uncertainty at a complexity level that can be applied to practical contaminated land problems with limited amount of data. Prior information about the contamination level is modelled by probability density functions. The value of information is expressed in monetary terms. The most cost-effective sampling program is the one with the highest expected net value. The model was applied to a contaminated scrap yard in Göteborg, Sweden, contaminated by metals. The optimal number of samples was determined to be in the range of 16–18 for a remediation unit of 100 m². Sensitivity analysis indicates that the perspective of the decision-maker is important, and that the cost of failure and the future land use are the most important factors to consider. The model can also be applied for other sampling problems, for example, sampling and testing of wastes to meet landfill waste acceptance procedures.     

Geologic uncertainty in a regulatory environment: An example from the potential Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository site

Regulatory geologists are concerned with predicting the performance of sites proposed for waste disposal or for remediation of existing pollution problems. Geologic modeling of these sites requires large-scale expansion of knowledge obtained from very limited sampling. This expansion induces considerable uncertainty into the geologic models of rock properties that are required for modeling the predicted performance of the site.One method for assessing this uncertainty is through nonparametric geostatistical simulation. Simulation can produce a series of equiprobable models of a rock property of interest. Each model honors measured values at sampled locations, and each can be constructed to emulate both the univariate histogram and the spatial covariance structure of the measured data. Computing a performance model for a number of geologic simulations allows evaluation of the effects of geologic uncertainty. A site may be judged acceptable if the number of failures to meet a particular performance criterion produced by these computations is sufficiently low. A site that produces too many failures may be either unacceptable or simply inadequately described.The simulation approach to addressing geologic uncertainty is being applied to the potential high-level nuclear waste repository site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, U.S.A. Preliminary geologic models of unsaturated permeability have been created that reproduce observed statistical properties reasonably well. A spread of unsaturated groundwater travel times has been computed that reflects the variability of those geologic models. Regions within the simulated models exhibiting the greatest variability among multiple runs are candidates for obtaining the greatest reduction in uncertainty through additional site characterization.     

Spatial variability of reconstructed soil properties and the optimization of sampling number for reclaimed land monitoring in an opencast coal mine

Drastically disturbed soils caused by opencast mining can result in the severe loss of soil structure and increase in soil compactness. To assess the effects of mining activities on reconstructed soils and to track the changes in reclaimed soil properties, the variability of soil properties (soil particle distribution, penetration resistance (PR), pH, and total dissolved salt (TDS)) in the Shanxi Pingshuo Antaibao opencast coal-mine inner dump after dumping and before reclamation was analyzed using a geostatistics method, and the number of soil monitoring points after mined land reclamation was determined. Soil samples were equally collected at 78 sampling sites in the study area with an area of 0.44 km². Soil particle distribution had moderate variability, except for silt content at the depth of 0–20 cm with a low variability and sand content at the depth of 20–40 cm with a high variability. The pH showed a low variability, and TDS had moderate variability at all depths. The variability of PR was high at the depth of 0–20 cm and moderate at the depth of 20–40 cm. There was no clear trend in the variance with increasing depth for the soil properties. Interpolation using kriging displayed a high heterogeneity of the reconstructed soil properties, and the spatial structure of the original landform was partially or completely destroyed. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) can be used to determine the number of sampling points for soil properties, and 40 is the ideal sampling number for the study site based on cross-validation.     

Hazard and risk assessment for sinkhole formation on dolomite land in South Africa

 A method is proposed to assess the risk for sinkhole formation in dolomitic areas where changes in land use are envisaged. Data from geotechnical site investigations are used for the zoning and characterization of sites in terms of the hazard (maximum size of sinkhole that can form), while the inherent risk for this hazard to occur is assessed by assuming that the site may be developed or treated incorrectly (abused). By considering both the hazard and the inherent risk, it is possible to select appropriate types of development and precautionary measures to reduce the final (development) risk to an acceptable level. Received: 15 September 1996 · Accepted: 12 May 1998     

Appropriate Sampling for Optimised Measurement (ASOM), rather than the Theory of Sampling (TOS) Approach,to Ensure Suitable Measurement Quality: A Refutation of Esbensen and Wagner (2014)

The ‘Appropriate Sampling for Optimised Measurement’ (ASOM) approach considers measurement to be the focus of the sampling process, and sampling to be only the first part of the measurement process. To achieve ASOM, the uncertainty of measurements, including its contribution from sampling, needs to be estimated and optimised in order to achieve fitness‐for‐purpose. Such samples are then ‘sufficiently’ representative. The ‘Theory of Sampling’ (TOS) focuses on the processes of primary sampling and sample preparation and assumes that samples are ‘representative’ if they are correctly prepared by nominally ‘correct’ protocols. It defines around ten sampling ‘errors’, which are either modelled or minimised to improve sampling quality. It is argued that the ASOM approach is more effective in achieving appropriate measurement quality than in applying TOS to just the first part of the measurement process. The comparison is made less effective by the different objectives, scopes, terminology and assumptions of the two approaches. ASOM can be applied to in situ materials that are too variable to be modelled accurately, or where sources of uncertainty are unsuspected. The proposed integration of ASOM with TOS (Esbensen and Wagner 2014, Trends in Analytical Chemistry, 57, 93–106) is therefore effectively impossible. However, some TOS procedures can be useful within the ASOM approach.     

Earthquake risk assessment and optimal risk management strategies for Hi-Tech Fabs in Taiwan

In this paper, we build an event-based seismic hazard assessment and financial analysis model for Hi-Tech Fabs in Taiwan. As we know, the low occurrence rate, tremendous loss and high uncertainty are characteristics of earthquake disasters. To handle the above issues, the model integrates knowledge from many fields including earth science, seismology, geology, risk management, structural engineering, the insurance profession, financial engineering and facility management. The portfolio of data from the site survey indicates that the model can be used to calculate the event losses (including buildings, contents and business interruption losses); furthermore the average annual loss and loss exceeding probabilities also can be calculated. The total earthquake risk cost, which includes earthquake insurance premiums, average annual retained loss and equivalent annual retrofit cost, is defined as an indicator for selection of optimal risk management strategies.     

地下水污染监测网的设计研究进展

地下水污染监测网的设计包括取样点在空间上的采样位置和时间上的取样频率这两方面的确定，其目的是为了准确刻画污染羽在含 水层中随时间的变化状况。概要地回顾了近20年来地下水污染监测网设计的研究成果。分别介绍了统计方法、模拟方法和模拟-优化模型 等监测网设计方法的研究进展。监测网设计方法的选择取决于最终的监测目的以及可供利用的基础资料。指出参数的不确定性是影响污染监 测设计结果的最重要因素。如何将地下水污染监测网设计的理论研究真正与实际应用相结合是今后的主要研究方向。     

An archaeoseismic approach and method for the study of active strike-slip faults

The use of archaeology to study earthquake hazards provides a human dimension to an issue of modern societal concern. We developed an archaeoseismic approach to the study of prehistoric earthquakes on active strike-slip faults. This approach employs a combination of standard archaeological and paleoseismic techniques. We have successfully applied this approach and its attendant methods to an archaeological site that straddles and has been offset by the San Andreas fault in northern coastal California. Resultant fault parameters, including cumulative rate of slip and timing of the penultimate event, are comparable to results of strictly paleoseismic investigations at other sites on this fault. The archaeoseismic approach furnishes a number of advantages over geologic studies in terms of the availability and number of potential study sites, the abundance of datable materials, and the array of potential piercing features with which to constrain fault history. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Soil-erosion assessment at basin scale through 137Cs content analysis based on pedo-morphological units

Soil loss evaluation by means of radioisotopic content measurements represents a promising technique, half-way between field surveys and theoretical models, which still suffers from its practical limits when applied at basin scale. A main limit is represented by the costs of field investigations and laboratory investigations on the high number of soil samples required by a traditional sampling scheme, such as regular grid or transects. A non-conventional soil sampling scheme was tested with the aim to consider a relative scanty number of soil samples and to verify the feasibility of this technique on large areas. This scheme was based on the hypothesis that land analysis and classification could point out areas characterised by homogeneous behaviour with respect to the ¹³⁷Cs deposition and transmission model. A Geographic Information System (GIS)-aided procedure allowed to classify the selected basin area in pedo-morphological units, representative of the different pedologic, morphologic and land-use conditions, to locate few sampling points for each unit. Outcomes pointed out a low correlation between ¹³⁷Cs contents and soil physical and compositional characteristics. Nevertheless, the isotopic methodology allowed to estimate a total soil loss value at basin scale almost consistent with both observed data, given by reservoir sedimentation measurements and estimates from the application of the RUSLE model. Thus, the results can be considered encouraging and they allow to deem that the isotopic methodology can be refined in order to account for erosion and deposition processes even at river basin scale and with a limited number of soil samples.     

New Approach to Geochemical Measurement: Estimation of Measurement Uncertainty from Sampling,rather than an Assumption of Representative Sampling

It is argued that the current division between field sampling and chemical analysis is counterproductive in terms of ensuring that geochemical measurement results are fit for their intended purpose. An integrated approach to the whole measurement process has many advantages including no dependence on the two assumptions that either the samples are necessarily representative if taken with a correct protocol, or that the measurement results can be assumed to be true values of chemical concentration. The measurement results then require values of measurement uncertainty, including that from sampling as well as from chemical analysis. This enables the user of the measurement results, rather than the producer, to judge their fitness for a specific purpose. Case studies are used to illustrate the practicality and benefits of this new approach, including the use of measurement results with optimal, but relatively high, levels of uncertainty to make reliable decisions. This contrasts with the traditional assumption that pursuit of the lowest possible measurement uncertainty is the best approach.     

A new, instantaneous aeolian sand trap design for field use

A new aeolian sediment trap is described which can give up to 1 Hz measurement frequency in field conditions. The trap adopts a circular, horizontal trap design with a load cell connection to give continuous, unobtrusive trap measurement of sediment flux. Simultaneous velocity recording is carried out using an anemometer. Trap construction costs are approximately £200. Initial results in field conditions using a direct comparison of wind velocity data, sampled at an equivalent frequency, have given a first-order relationship between sediment flux and velocity. The trap enables simultaneous sampling of wind velocity and sediment flux at a sufficiently short interval to enable investigation of sediment transport dynamics under a variety of field conditions.     

Explorative data analysis of heavy metal contaminated soil using multidimensional spatial regression

To obtain data on heavy metal contaminated soil requires laborious and time-consuming data sampling and analysis. Not only has the contamination to be measured, but also additional data characterizing the soil and the boundary conditions of the site, such as pH, land use, and soil fertility. For an integrative approach, combining the analysis of spatial distribution, and of factors influencing the contamination, and its treatment, the Mollifier interpolation was used, which is a non-parametric kernel density regression. The Mollifier was capable of including additional independent variables (beyond the spatial dimensions x and y) in the spatial interpolation and hence explored the combined influence of spatial and other variables, such as land use, on the heavy metal distribution. The Mollifier could also represent the interdependence between different heavy metal concentrations and additional site characteristics. Although the uncertainty measure supplied by the Mollifier at first seems somewhat unusual, it is a valuable feature and supplements the geostatistical uncertainty assessment.     

平原区中大比例尺土壤地球化学调查采样方法--浙江省平湖市试验研究

文章以浙江省平湖市为典型三角洲平原区,开展了多种尺度、不同采样方法的对比试验。结果表明,田块内土壤元素分布较为均匀,小范围内元素的空间分异性较小,而田块之间土壤元素含量差异性明显增加;Hg,Cd等典型污染元素空间分异性较强,而人为污染扰动较弱的元素的空间分布较为均一;不同采样方法取得的区域性资料,其统计值接近,空间分布模式也相似,但有些元素仍有较明显差异。因此,中大比例尺地球化学调查时,应根据调查研究的目标任务,充分考虑地块分布、土壤类型和土地利用方式,选择合理的采样点。土壤样品可采取多坑点采集、多子样组合的方式,以保证样品的代表性,同时减少分析测试工作量。     

Relationship between the variation of water quality in rivers and the characteristics of watershed at Miyun,Beijing, China

Based on the characteristics of land use and drainage network of the upper watershed of the Miyun Res-ervoir, Beijing, 26 monitoring and sampling sites were selected in different sub-catchments. Temporal and spatial variations in nutrient loss were dealt with in this paper in terms of the monitoring data on the water quality of the main tributaries flowing into the Miyun Reservoir. In combination with the monitoring data on water quality, the impacts of watershed characteristics including land-use type, landscape pattern, and drainage density were assessed, The concentrations of nutrients in the rainy season are higher than those in other seasons, and the concentrations of NO3--N are linearly related to those of total N which is the main form of nitrogen present in the fiver water. The concentrations of nitrogen become higher toward the reservoir along the main rivers. The seasonal variation of ni-trogen in the watershed affected by intensive human activities is very obvious; in the watershed with steady or low water flow, the seasonal variation of nitrogen is less obvious. Forest land and grassland can trap and filter nitrogen effectively. Land-use pattern also has important impacts on the loss of nitrogen. The concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in the water bodies show great temporal and spatial variations. On a temporal scale, the concentrations of TN and TP in the rainy reason are higher than those in other seasons. On a spatial scale, the concentrations of TN and NO3--N in the Qingshui River and Chaohe River are highest all the time. The spatial variation of TP is distinct, being obvious at sampling sites near villages. The form of nitrogen and phosphorus loss varies in different hydrological seasons. Dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus are the main forms in streams in non-rainy seasons, the dissolved nitro-gen and total nitrogen decrease in percentage in the rainy season. Particulate nitrogen and phosphorus are the main forms in some rivers. The concentrations of TN and NO3--N from orchards and villages are high whereas those from forest land are lowest. Land-use pattern has impacts on TN and NO3--N losses, at the sampling sites near the source landscape, the concentrations are higher than those at the sampling sites near the sink landscape. Water quality of the rivers which flow into the Miyuan Reservior is influenced by the composition of adjacent soils.     

Can in situ geochemical measurements be more fit-for-purpose than those made ex situ?

It is argued that the selection of the most appropriate geochemical measurement technique should be based upon the fitness of its measurement results for any specified purpose, regardless of whether the measurement are made in situ or ex situ. Using this approach, in situ measurements made in the field are shown to have some definite advantages over those made ex situ in a laboratory. A case study is used to show that there are cases where in situ measurements can be more fit-for-purpose than their ex situ equivalents. This is primarily because the uncertainty of both types of measurement is usually limited by the uncertainty arising from the field sampling process. That uncertainty is mainly caused by small-scale heterogeneity (in space or time) in the analyte concentration within the environmental material (e.g. soil, water or air).     

PALAEOMAGNETIC AND STRUCTURAL INVESTIGATIONS ON BLOCK ROTATIONS AND CRUSTAL SHORTENING IN CENTRAL TIBET

PALAEOMAGNETIC AND STRUCTURAL INVESTIGATIONS ON BLOCK ROTATIONS AND CRUSTAL SHORTENING IN CENTRAL TIBET1　RatschbacherL ,SpernerB ,MeschedeM ,etal.Computertechniquesandapplications:aprogramlibraryforquantitativestructuralanalysis[J].TuebingerGeowissArb ,1994,A (2 1) :73S .…     

Integration of geospatial technologies with RUSLE for analysis of land use/cover change impact on soil erosion: case study in Rib watershed,north-western highland Ethiopia

In recent times, soil erosion interlocked with land use and land cover (LULC) changes has become one of the most important environmental issues in developing countries. Evaluation of this complex interaction between LULC change and soil erosion is indispensable in land use planning and conservation works. This paper analysed the impact of LULC change on soil erosion in the north-western highland Ethiopia over the period 1986–2016. Rib watershed, the area with dynamic LULC change and severe soil erosion problem, was selected as a case study site. Integrated approach that combined geospatial technologies with revised universal soil loss equation model was utilized to evaluate the spatio-temporal dynamics of soil loss over the study period. Pixel-based overlay of soil erosion intensity maps with LULC maps was carried out to understand the change in soil loss due to LULC change. Results showed that the annual soil loss in the study area varied from 0 to 236.5 t ha^?1 year^?1 (tons per hectare per year) in 1986 and 0–807 t ha^?1 year^?1 in 2016. The average annual soil loss for the entire watershed was estimated about 40 t ha^?1 year^?1 in 1986 comparing with 68 t ha^?1 year^?1 in 2016, a formidable increase. Soil erosion potential that was estimated to exceed the average soil loss tolerance level increased from 34.5% in 1986 to 66.8% in 2016. Expansion of agricultural land at the expense of grassland and shrubland was the most detrimental factor for severe soil erosion in the watershed. The most noticeable change in soil erosion intensity was observed from cropland with mean annual soil loss amount increased to 41.38 t ha^?1 year^?1 in 2016 from 26.60 in 1986. Moreover, the most successive erosion problems were detected in eastern, south-eastern and northern parts of the watershed. Therefore, the results of this study can help identify the soil erosion hot spots and conservation priority areas at local and regional levels.     

中国高精度土地覆盖数据在RegCM4/CLM模式中的引入及其对区域气候模拟影响的分析

基于中国1:100万植被图和1:600万植被区划图, 按照通用陆面模式CLM植被功能型分类标准, 制作了可用于CLM及RegCM4区域气候模式的25 km×25 km分辨率的中国高精度土地覆盖数据(简称VEG数据). 相比CLM默认使用的土地覆盖数据(简称ORG数据), VEG数据不仅能提供更多的土地覆盖局地特征, 还纠正了ORG数据中裸地和农作物的比例偏高、 灌木的比例偏低等误差. 对比使用两套土地覆盖数据的RegCM4多年连续积分结果, 分析了不同土地覆盖分布对气温、 降水等的影响, 并从地表能量收支的角度给出影响机理解释. 结果显示: VEG数据的使用, 使得模式对冬季气温和降水的模拟能力有一定提高, 模式在南部区域偏干偏冷的系统误差有所减弱; 采用VEG数据后, 由于粗糙度、 反照率等下垫面参数的改变及云量的变化, 使得地表能量收支发生显著调整. 青藏高原地区的气温变化与湍流通量和长波辐射的变化有密切的联系, 主要源自粗糙度引起的湍流通量增加、 以及云量引起的向下净长波辐射增加. 而在中国中部和南部, 短波辐射变化更为明显, 它与地表反照率的变化相一致. 基于所制作的土地覆盖数据, 可广泛应用于CLM模式在中国区域的应用之中.     

海河流域不同下垫面上大孔径闪烁仪观测显热通量的时空特征分析

基于海河流域密云站、馆陶站和大兴站2008-2009年大孔径闪烁仪的观测数据,结合涡动相关仪和自动气象站的同步观测,经过数据筛选、质量评价、数据处理及插补等步骤,得到了3个站点不同时间尺度的显热通量和蒸散量.首先分析了3个站点1月、4月、7月、10月不稳定状态下大孔径闪烁仪通量观测的空间代表性及源区内不同下垫面的通量贡献率,并结合下垫面作物生长状况比较分析了3个站点不同季节大孔径闪烁仪观测显热通量与净辐射的月平均日变化趋势,不同下垫面上两者变化趋势一致,且馆陶站的显热通量在各月中都为最低,1月、7月密云站的显热通量与大兴站较为接近.同时3个站点2008-2009年9:00～15:00显热通量日平均值的季节变化趋势表明,相对于密云站单峰状的季节变化,源区内下垫面的植被类型和植被生长状况导致馆陶站和大兴站的显热通量都表现出明显的三峰变化.最后,以馆陶站大孔径闪烁仪和涡动相关仪观测的30 min显热通量数据为例,结合涡动相关仪的能量闭合率,大孔径闪烁仪和涡动相关仪通量足迹源区的重叠程度和非重叠部分的地面非均一性,对不同尺度显热通量观测的差异原因进行了讨论.