考虑地震随机特征的液化侧向变形超越概率

基于液化侧向变形实用统计模型和地震概率模型,建立了可以考虑地震随机特征和土体性质不确定性的液化侧向变形超越概率模型框架,通过实际案例初步探讨了模型的有效性,并将超越概率模型与现有统计模型的预测结果进行了对比。分析结果表明,若液化侧向变形的条件概率满足正态分布,标准差在5%到20%期望值范围内变化时,对位移超越概率影响不大;若满足对数正态分布,标准差对超越概率有一定影响。实用统计模型只能预测指定地震水平下的液化侧向变形值,而超越概率模型考虑了指定时间内所有可能地震的发生概率,可以同时预测变形值及发生概率,更加适合用于区域性的地震液化灾害评估。     

以标贯试验为依据的砂土液化确定性及概率判别法

核电厂址非基岩场地的地基液化问题是核电厂选址的关键问题,亟需建立核电厂址地基液化判别方法。回顾了以标贯试验和地表峰值加速度为依据的砂土液化判别方法的演化历史,依据Idriss-Boulanger确定液化临界曲线的基本方法,提出了确定液化临界曲线的基本原则,分别依据美国液化数据库、中国抗震规范液化判别式所用的液化数据及综合两者的液化数据资料,给出了相应的液化临界曲线,验证了液化临界曲线的位置对不同的细粒含量、有效上覆压力、现场试验方法的液化数据的合理性,分析了测量或估计土层循环应力比和修正标贯击数各种因素的不确定性对液化临界曲线的敏感性,结果表明：所提的液化临界曲线不易受各种因素的影响。利用Monte Carlo模拟、加权最大似然法和加权经验概率法,给出了液化临界曲线的名义抗液化安全系数与液化概率的经验关系式及概率等值线,并对核电厂Ⅰ类、Ⅱ类和Ⅲ类抗震物项地基,给出了相应的液化临界曲线。     

以剪切波速与地表峰值加速度为依据的地震液化确定性及概率判别法

剪切波速作为土性的基本参数,为评价土体抵抗地震液化的能力提供了一种方法。回顾了以剪切波速和地表峰值加速度为依据的场地地震液化判别方法的演化历史,依据他人收集的现场液化资料,合计49次地震、618例液化/不液化场地数据,提出了确定液化临界曲线的基本原则,给出了基于修正剪切波速与地表峰值加速度的液化临界曲线,验证了液化临界曲线的位置对细粒含量、有效上覆压力、震级等因素取值变化的合理性,分析了估计土层循环应力比CSR的剪应力折减系数、震级标定系数、有效上覆压力修正系数等因素的不确定性对液化临界曲线的敏感性。结果表明：液化临界曲线对各种影响因素具有很好的适用性。利用Monte Carlo模拟、加权最大似然法和加权经验概率法,给出了建议的液化临界曲线的名义抗液化安全系数与液化概率的经验关系式及概率等值线,并对核电厂Ⅰ类、Ⅱ类和Ⅲ类抗震物项地基,分别建议了相应的液化临界曲线。该方法以丰富的现场液化数据为依据,具有广泛的应用前景。     

用剪切波速判别砂土液化的新方法

本文目的是建立剪切波速评价场地砂土液化的定量方法,以西特简化法的思路为基础,提出了用剪切波速估算地震应力和抗液化应力的计算公式,并编制了相应的程序,计算了液化与非液化实例,计算结果与实际情况颇为一致。     

FOSM在水平场地液化概率评价中的应用

为了更好地进行场地液化评价,将可靠度理论引入水平场地液化概率评价中。以标准贯入试验(SPT)实测数据的统计分析结果为基础,用一次二阶矩法(FOSM)建立水平场地液化概率评价模型,分析了测试数据变异系数对抗液化安全系数与液化概率的影响,并建议了水平场地液化概率评价标准。实例分析表明,新建水平场地液化概率评价模型各参数的物理意义与统计指标明确,相比传统的确定性分析方法,不仅能判定液化的发生与否,还能给出液化发生的概率,这为进行基于风险分析的抗震设计提供了可能。     

复杂加载条件下珊瑚砂抗液化强度试验研究

循环加载方式与应力路径对砂土的抗液化强度有很大的影响。利用GDS空心圆柱扭剪仪对南海珊瑚砂进行了一系列复杂加载条件下均等固结不排水循环试验,探讨了90°突变应力路径下主应力方向角对珊瑚砂抗液化强度的影响。试验结果发现：以循环应力比（CSR）作为应力水平指标,当不控制中主应力系数b的变化时,主应力方向角 对珊瑚砂的抗液化强度并无显著影响;当控制b始终保持0.5时,珊瑚砂的抗液化强度随着 的增加呈现出先减小后增大的趋势,且在 45°时的抗液化强度最低。基于分析循环荷载引起的土单元大、小循环主应力 、 变化,定义了单元体循环应力比（USR）作为一个新的物理指标,发现不同循环加载方式与应力路径条件下施加于珊瑚砂试样的USR与引起液化所需的循环次数NL存在事实上的唯一性关系。通过引自文献的4种无黏性土原始试验数据的再处理,独立地验证了以USR表征砂类土液化强度的适用性。     

基于土层常规参数的剪切波速液化概率计算公式

分析国际上现有液化场地剪切波速473组数据进行参数特征后,以此为基础,采用分区方法,利用成熟的Logistic模型,提出了以地表峰值加速度、剪切波速、地下水位、可液化层埋深等4个参数表达的土体液化概率计算公式和不同概率下液化临界值计算公式,研究了不同概率水平下公式的适用性,并与现有主要方法进行比较。研究表明:地震动强度为液化判别首要影响参数,液化层与非液化层剪切波速区分度不显著,采用以往一个公式构造液化判别公式的方式难以要达到基本要求;现有Andrus公式和石兆吉公式会将很多明显为非液化的场地误判为液化场地,违背了现有认识,达到了不可接受的程度,需要改进。文中公式取50%概率时液化点和非液化点回判成功率符合对等原则,不同烈度下成功率均在70%左右;总体看,公式表现良好,可为中国工程建设提供一个合理、可操作性强的剪切波速液化概率判别方法。     

复杂加载条件下珊瑚砂抗液化强度试验研究

循环加载方式与应力路径对砂土的抗液化强度有很大的影响。利用GDS空心圆柱扭剪仪,针对南海珊瑚砂进行了一系列复杂加载条件下均等固结不排水循环试验,探讨了90°突变应力路径下主应力方向角对珊瑚砂抗液化强度的影响,试验结果发现:以循环应力比(CSR)作为应力水平指标,当不控制中主应力系数b的变化时,主应力方向角α_d对珊瑚砂的抗液化强度并无显著影响;当控制b始终保持0.5时,珊瑚砂的抗液化强度随着α_d的增加呈现出先减小后增大的趋势,且在α_d=45°时的抗液化强度最低。基于分析循环荷载引起的土单元大、小循环主应力σ_(1d)、σ_(3d)变化,定义了单元体循环应力比(USR)作为一个新的物理指标,发现不同循环加载方式与应力路径条件下施加于珊瑚砂试样的USR与引起液化所需的循环次数N_L存在事实上的唯一性关系。通过引自文献的4种无粘性土原始试验数据的再处理,独立地验证了以USR表征砂类土液化强度的适用性。     

饱和粉土静态液化性能试验研究

通过固结不排水三轴压缩试验,分析了围压、固结比和干密度等因素对饱和粉土静态液化特性的影响。试验结果表明,在干密度较小时,饱和粉土的偏应力-应变曲线呈现明显的硬变软化型,随轴向应变增大超静孔隙水压力增加、有效应力减小而发生静态液化,当干密度达到1.58 g· cm-3时,饱和粉土的偏应力-应变曲线表现出硬变硬化现象,超静孔隙水压力为负值或接近0,饱和粉土不再发生静态液化,即饱和粉土存在静态液化的干密度临界值;其他条件不变,随着围压、固结比或干密度的增大,偏应力峰值和残余强度均增大,静态液化势降低;根据有效应力路径建立了流滑面以作为饱和粉土稳定区与非稳定区的分界面。     

基于CPTu的状态相关边界面模型标定研究

对土工结构进行数值分析时,需要引入土的有效应力本构模型,以预测土体变形或液化破坏。然而,由于土单元初始状态的不确定性和缺乏适当的试验结果,模型参数标定经常成为实际工程应用的障碍。在现有边界面模型中引入状态相关的剪胀性概念,使得土体破坏时处于临界状态。基于现场孔压静力触探试验（piezocone penetration test,简称CPTu）的测试数据,提出了模拟单调和循环荷载下土体液化和破坏的边界面模型的参数标定方法。取现场残余强度为室内试验的临界状态,用于标定临界状态线相关参数。基于现有CPTu数据的抗液化强度图,以及震级比例系数与液化等效循环次数之间的联系,建立了土体液化应力比与等效循环次数的关系,在此基础上简要介绍了标定卸载体积模量参数的方法。最后基于CPTu实测地层数据,具体说明了模型相关参数的标定过程。     

A genetic algorithm approach for assessing soil liquefaction potential based on reliability method

Deterministic approaches are unable to account for the variations in soil’s strength properties, earthquake loads, as well as source of errors in evaluations of liquefaction potential in sandy soils which make them questionable against other reliability concepts. Furthermore, deterministic approaches are incapable of precisely relating the probability of liquefaction and the factor of safety (FS). Therefore, the use of probabilistic approaches and especially, reliability analysis is considered since a complementary solution is needed to reach better engineering decisions. In this study, Advanced First-Order Second-Moment (AFOSM) technique associated with genetic algorithm (GA) and its corresponding sophisticated optimization techniques have been used to calculate the reliability index and the probability of liquefaction. The use of GA provides a reliable mechanism suitable for computer programming and fast convergence. A new relation is developed here, by which the liquefaction potential can be directly calculated based on the estimated probability of liquefaction (P _L ), cyclic stress ratio (CSR) and normalized standard penetration test (SPT) blow counts while containing a mean error of less than 10% from the observational data. The validity of the proposed concept is examined through comparison of the results obtained by the new relation and those predicted by other investigators. A further advantage of the proposed relation is that it relates P _L and FS and hence it provides possibility of decision making based on the liquefaction risk and the use of deterministic approaches. This could be beneficial to geotechnical engineers who use the common methods of FS for evaluation of liquefaction. As an application, the city of Babolsar which is located on the southern coasts of Caspian Sea is investigated for liquefaction potential. The investigation is based primarily on in situ tests in which the results of SPT are analysed.     

Reliability analysis of soil liquefaction based on standard penetration test

A review of probabilistic and deterministic liquefaction evaluation procedures reveals that there is a need for a comprehensive approach that accounts for different sources of uncertainty in liquefaction evaluations. For the same set of input parameters, different models provide different factors of safety and/or probabilities of liquefaction. To account for the different uncertainties, including both the model and measurement uncertainties, reliability analysis is necessary. This paper presents a review and comparative study of such reliability approaches that can be used to obtain the probability of liquefaction and the corresponding factor of safety. Using a simplified deterministic Seed method, this reliability analysis has been performed. The probability of liquefaction along with the corresponding factor of safety have been determined based on a first order second moment (FOSM) method, an advanced FOSM (Hasofer–Lind) reliability method, a point estimation method (PEM) and a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. A combined method that uses both FOSM and PEM is presented and found to be simple and reliable for liquefaction analysis. Based on the FOSM reliability approach, the minimum safety factor value to be adopted for soil liquefaction analysis (depending on the variability of soil resistance, shear stress parameters and acceptable risk) has been studied and a new design safety factor based on a reliability approach is proposed.     

水电站坝的砂层地基地震液化可靠度研究

对四川地区江河上数座水电站坝基砂层的26组动力三轴试验资料进行了统计分析,基于动剪应力比法的液化判别方法推导了的地震液化的极限状态方程,使用蒙特卡洛随机抽样的方法计算了砂层液化的失效概率,并对某水电站的厂房地基砂层的液化可靠度进行了计算分析。研究表明,统计按粉砂样总体和中细砂样总体划分较为合理;砂层的动剪应力比可采用正态分布;电站砂层地基地震液化的最危险工况为,闸坝盖重加稳定的向上渗流及遭遇Ⅶ度地震荷载,为高液化风险,其液化概率随埋深加大而增大,最危险部位为砂层底板,对坝基砂层应进行抗液化处理。     

基于多源试验数据空间变异土体参数概率反演及边坡可靠度更新

岩土工程现场勘察试验通常只能获得有限的试验数据,据此难以真实地量化土体参数的空间变异性。提出了考虑土体参数空间变异性的概率反演和边坡可靠度更新方法,基于室内和现场两种不同来源的试验数据概率反演空间变异参数统计特征和更新边坡可靠度水平,并给出了计算流程。此外为合理地描述土体参数先验信息,发展了不排水抗剪强度非平稳随机场模型。最后通过不排水饱和黏土边坡算例验证了提出方法的有效性,并探讨了试验数据和钻孔位置对边坡后验失效概率的影响。结果表明：提出方法实现了空间变异土体参数概率反演与边坡可靠度更新的一体化,基于有限的多源试验数据概率反演得到的土体参数均值与试验数据非常吻合,明显降低了对参数不确定性的估计,更新的边坡可靠度水平显著增加。受土体参数空间自相关性的影响,试验数据对钻孔取样点附近区域土体参数统计特征更新的影响明显大于距离取样点较远区域。     

Efficient system reliability analysis of rock slopes based on Subset simulation

How to efficiently assess the system reliability of rock slopes is still challenging. This is because when the probability of failure is low, a large number of deterministic slope stability analyses are required. Based on Subset simulation, this paper proposes an efficient approach for the system reliability analysis of rock slopes. The correlations among multiple potential failure modes are properly accounted for with the aid of the “max” and “min” functions. A benchmark rock slope and a real engineered rock slope with multiple correlated failure modes are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

Efficient conditional modeling for geotechnical uncertainty evaluation

A first‐order Taylor series method including direct derivative coding (DDC) is presented as a computationally efficient method for producing the probability distribution associated with calculated geotechnical performance. The probability distribution is employed in reliability analyses to calculate the probability of failure, valuable information that is not typically associated with deterministic analyses. The probability distribution also is used to identify important input parameters and to direct sampling efforts. Another approach to generate the probability distribution is the Monte Carlo (MC) method, however, Taylor series results generally are calculated in less time than the MC approach. One key to the implementation of the Taylor series approach is efficient approximation of the sensitivities required by the Taylor series calculation. DDC provides the technique to produce an efficient Taylor series algorithm. Directly coding the sensitivity analysis into the engineering model is accomplished by automatic and hand programming of derivatives. ADIFOR 2.0 was employed to automatically add derivatives to an existing engineering analysis model. For this paper a meshing program and 3D FEM for soil deformation is used to demonstrate the DDC approach. Although DDC requires a large up‐front programming effort, it is not site or data specific. Therefore, once the derivative programming has been performed, the numerical model can be applied to a wide variety of problems without additional user intervention. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

饱和砂土的剪切波速与其抗液化强度关系研究

根据饱和砂土剪切波速与其抗液化强度的相关性原理,利用剪切波速与振动三轴联合实验装置,进行了控制饱和砂土初始剪切波速的振动液化实验,依据实验结果建立了剪切波速与抗液化强度的定量关系。最后用现场勘查数据对此定量关系进行验证,结果表明：该关系式对实际 66 个未液化地点的判别准确率达到 81.2 %;对 108 个实际液化地点的判别准确率达到 62.8 %;平均判别准确率达到 69.5 %。