美国冬小麦产量遥感预测方法

介绍了依据时序遥感植被指数数据进行产量预测的方法。通过美国冬小麦产量的历史趋势分析去除趋势产量 ,得到气象产量。利用区域作物生长过程线 ,提取曲线的各个特征参数 ,并将各参数与气象产量的值进行相关分析 ,得到美国冬小麦产量遥感敏感因子 ,采用一次线性拟合的方法建立回归方程 ,估算当年的冬小麦产量。依据此方法对美国 2 0 0 3年各州的冬小麦单产进行了预测 ,并将最终的预测结果与美国农业统计局的数据进行了对比 ,两者间的误差在 - 11 4 2 %至 11 10 %之间 ,相关系数为 0 89。     

基于GF-1卫星数据的冬小麦种植面积估算模型

目前遥感技术越来越广泛地应用于农作物面积的估算,本文研究了基于高分辨率卫星影像的农作物面积测量技术,提出一种冬小麦种植面积估算模型。该模型采用最大似然法对遥感影像进行监督分类,利用耕地矢量数据优化分类结果,结合高分辨率样本村数据拟合估算冬小麦种植面积。以泗洪县为研究区,采用GF-1卫星数据完成了泗洪县冬小麦面积提取实验,验证了该模型的有效性。     

基于遥感估产和农业统计的粮食供需平衡模型研究

提出了适用于年内动态平衡的中国粮食供需平衡模型 ,利用遥感估产数据和统计数据 ,对中国世纪之交的粮食供需平衡的现状进行研究。结果表明文中的模型是合理可行的 ,同时通过比较基于遥感估算产量和基于统计产量计算的粮食供需平衡状况结果 ,表明遥感估产信息可以有效提高粮食供需平衡分析的可靠性和时效性 ,遥感估产应作为中国区域粮食供需平衡监测的重要信息源纳入国家粮食宏观管理的日常工作。通过对中国 1999— 2 0 0 2年粮食供需状况的计算分析 ,认为世纪之交中国年内粮食的供需大致平衡 ,但因为 2 0世纪末政府和农户存粮数量较高 ,近 3年来农户库存持续下降 ,造成粮食市场供大于求的局面。因此 ,对于中国粮食的供需平衡面临的问题决不能掉以轻心。     

面向农作物监测的遥感信息处理技术研究

以区域性主要农作物种类识别、长势分析与产量估算及农业种植结构现状监测为主要研究对象,开展适于农业管理部门业务化运行的卫星遥感信息处理的关键技术研究。从分析主要作物类型识别的遥感物理依据入手,提出了卫星遥感数据处理及专题信息提取的基本技术框架、主要农作物类型及种植面积信息的提取方法以及主要粮食作物长势分析和产量估算模型,并对结果进行了简要的精度分析。     

基于光谱吸收深度分析的冬小麦生物量估算模型的建立

准确的估算作物的生物量,对作物长势监测具有重要的意义。利用高光谱仪获取的冬小麦高光谱实测数据,通过植被参数分析、植被光谱吸收特征挖掘,构建了冬小麦生物量的高光谱估算模型。结果表明,基于光谱深度分析与偏最小二乘方法建立的估算模型的R2值为0.86,RMSE为0.0397kg/m~2,较基于植被参数的生物量估算模型,模型精度得到了大幅的提高。本研究证实了利用光谱深度技术可以准确地挖掘光谱数据的"红谷"波段与生物量之间的关系,从而实现冬小麦生物量估算精度的提高。     

用NOAA气象卫星资料结合地面光谱测定对运城盆地冬小麦长势进行监测及产量估算的方法探讨

根据NOAA气象卫星具有周期短、覆盖面积大、对绿色植被及水份温度反应比较灵敏等特点,作者利用AVHRR甚高分辨率辐射计资料,结合同时期地面样方光谱和有关生物物理指标观测,对山西省运城盆地冬小麦长势进行了监测,并利用中比例尺的MSS彩色合成图像,分区分类测算面积和估算产量。在产量估算精度上有了新的提高。 首先采用多时相陆地卫星像片,按相同的生产条件及生产水平进行分类划区,然后分区设立地面样方,并与气象卫星接收同时进行光谱及生物物理指标观测。资料分析结果表明:地面光谱计算指数与小麦产量有较好的直线相关;地面光谱与卫星光谱指数(NVI),以及卫星光谱指数与小麦产量均具有较好的相关关系。 资料还证明了植冠红外温度与土壤水分即作物需水状况的相关性,以及气象卫星红外温度值与小麦产量的相关性。 利用上述遥感方法对冬小麦长势进行监测和估产,计算可靠,方法简便、快速,适宜于中小区域农业生产管理应用。     

基于地统计学空间插值法的作物单产估算

针对第三次全国农业普查农产量抽样调查的样本调查方法改革后,现行的传统农作物单产抽样调查估算方法无法有效利用调查样本所包含的空间差异性来估算抽样设计中子总体的作物单产等问题,提出了一种基于地统计学的空间插值估算方法,对调查队取得的样本数据进行深度挖掘。以河南省辉县为研究区,以冬小麦单产为研究对象,进行实验和结果分析。结果表明,利用地统计学克里格插值法取得的村级冬小麦平均单产估算精度在90%以上的村达到研究区村总量的91%,且其中83%的村估算精度优于95%;估算精度在90%以下的所有村的冬小麦种植总面积仅占全县的2.26%,对全县产量的影响微乎其微。基于地统计学的空间插值法很好地分析和利用了样本属性中的冬小麦单产信息表现出的空间相关性和异质性,不仅能较高精度地估算出现行的传统农作物单产推算方法无法给出的抽样设计中子总体(全县各村)的单产信息,而且能较好地给出总体(全县)的单产信息。利用该方法得到的全县冬小麦平均单产估算精度达到97.75%,高于现行的传统农作物单产抽样调查估算精度,估算效果良好,方法可行性高,相对传统方法还可起到费省效宏的作用。     

基于阈值比值法的森林冰雪冻害遥感评估——以湖南省为例

冰雪冻灾是森林生态系统的主要生态干扰之一,对森林结构及生态系统功能有重要影响,快速准确评估森林资源受损程度,对灾后森林修复和森林生态系统管理有重要意义。根据2001—2007年归一化植被指数(normalized difference vegetation index,NDVI)数据提取灾前植被NDVI参考值和植被正常生长变化范围,利用灾后同时段NDVI数据,提取湖南省2008年森林冰雪受灾范围。在图像阈值法基础上,提出阈值比值法,评估森林冰雪受灾区域森林资源受损程度。与图像阈值法相比,阈值比值法评估结果与人工调查数据更加接近,标准误差为0. 95,不足图像阈值法的1/3。阈值比值法评估结果显示,全省森林资源受损严重,森林重度受灾率高达53. 69%,森林中度受灾率达27. 50%,森林轻度受灾率仅为18. 81%。与海拔、坡向等地形因子叠加分析,发现高海拔森林受损程度比低海拔森林严重,800 m以上的森林重度受损率高达58. 91%,处于阴坡的森林受损程度比阳坡森林严重。     

基于光能利用率模型的玉米遥感估产研究

农作物长势监测和产量预测对于国家制定相关粮食政策、农业发展等都具有重要的意义,如何获得高效、宏观、精确的估产方法一直是学者关注的重点问题。以吉林省德惠市的玉米作为研究对象,利用光能利用率模型对玉米进行产量估算的研究,并且使用空间数据插值方法中的反距离权重法获得了每月平均温度数据的格网数据。通过玉米的净初级生产力NPP的累计值以及玉米的收获指数来获得最终的玉米产量值,利用验证点实测产量值与估算值的相关性和相对误差进行精度验证,相关系数R^2为0.649 9,平均相对误差值为1.676%,证明基于光能利用率模型的玉米估产在研究区具有一定的可行性。     

倚重GIS——印度洋海啸两周年回眸

不堪回首,造成近30万人死亡的印度洋海啸,在两年后的今天仍令人心悸。灾后,是GIS引导着救援人员到达受灾地点,并估算出灾难的实际影响以协调救援工作。     

汶川地震灾后农田和森林植被恢复遥感监测

2008年汶川8.0级特大地震对当地的生态系统造成了极大的破坏,为了评估5年来灾区农田和森林植被的恢复情况,利用逐年机载高分辨率遥感影像,结合星载遥感数据和地面调查数据,开展了灾区农林植被恢复状况监测。在农田恢复监测方面,结合2008年地震发生后以及2013年5月中旬的机载高分辨率遥感数据,采用目视解译的方式对汶川地震中受损农田的恢复状况进行监测与评估,同时利用GVG(GPS、Video和GIS)农情采样系统的作物种植成数调查结果,分析了灾后作物种植结构的变化。结果表明,灾区1592 ha受损农田,5年后仅有约17.5%得到了恢复和耕种使用。就耕地利用强度而言,重灾区耕地利用率较高,作物种植结构没有发生重大变化。在森林恢复状况监测方面,对典型区(岷江干旱河谷区和盆周山地区的3个重点区域)采用目视解译方式识别出森林变化,并结合大区域尺度规一化植被指数(NDVI)时间序列变化分析,对整个灾区的森林损毁和恢复情况做出评价。监测结果显示,汶川县、什邡市和绵竹市的森林植被恢复情况总体较好,但是一些坡度较大的损毁区、次生灾害频发区的森林尚未恢复,大区域尺度的统计结果显示,地震重灾区的46381 ha重度损毁森林植被和177025 ha中度损毁森林植被区域,完全恢复的区域占13.52%和25.84%,部分恢复的区域都占到50%。在自然恢复较为困难的区域,如汶川县中部和东北部、都江堰市北部、彭州市北部、什邡市北部、绵竹市北部、安县北部及北川县南部等,需要加强人工干预。遥感监测方法既适用于震后的农田和森林恢复状况动态监测,也适用于其他自然灾害发生时对灾区农田和森林植被破坏状况进行应急监测,具有实际应用价值和良好的发展前景。     

Regional yield estimation for winter wheat with MODIS-NDVI data in Shandong, China

The significance of crop yield estimation is well known in agricultural management and policy development at regional and national levels. The primary objective of this study was to test the suitability of the method, depending on predicted crop production, to estimate crop yield with a MODIS-NDVI-based model on a regional scale. In this paper, MODIS-NDVI data, with a 250 m resolution, was used to estimate the winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in one of the main winter-wheat-growing regions. Our study region is located in Jining, Shandong Province. In order to improve the quality of remote sensing data and the accuracy of yield prediction, especially to eliminate the cloud-contaminated data and abnormal data in the MODIS-NDVI series, the Savitzky–Golay filter was applied to smooth the 10-day NDVI data. The spatial accumulation of NDVI at the county level was used to test its relationship with winter wheat production in the study area. A linear regressive relationship between the spatial accumulation of NDVI and the production of winter wheat was established using a stepwise regression method. The average yield was derived from predicted production divided by the growing acreage of winter wheat on a county level. Finally, the results were validated by the ground survey data, and the errors were compared with the errors of agro-climate models. The results showed that the relative errors of the predicted yield using MODIS-NDVI are between −4.62% and 5.40% and that whole RMSE was 214.16 kg ha⁻¹ lower than the RMSE (233.35 kg ha⁻¹) of agro-climate models in this study region. A good predicted yield data of winter wheat could be got about 40 days ahead of harvest time, i.e. at the booting-heading stage of winter wheat. The method suggested in this paper was good for predicting regional winter wheat production and yield estimation.     

基于两个独立抽样框架的农作物种植面积遥感估算方法

通过分析遥感技术在中国农作物种植面积估算中所遇到的难点 ,针对运行化的农作物遥感估产系统对主要农作物种植面积估算的需求 ,提出在农作物种植结构区划的基础上 ,采用整群抽样和样条采样技术相结合的方法 ,进行农作物种植面积估算。整群抽样技术利用遥感影像估算农作物总种植成数 ,样条采样是一种适合中国农作物种植结构特征的采样技术 ,用于调查不同农作物类别在所有播种作物中的分类成数。在中国现有的耕地数据库基础上 ,根据两次抽样获得的成数 ,计算得到具体某一种农作物类别的种植面积。最后给出了 2 0 0 3年早稻种植面积估算的实例。     

Identification and mapping of winter wheat by integrating temporal change information and Kullback–Leibler divergence

Crop acreage and its spatial distribution are a base for agriculture related works. Current research combining medium and low spatial resolution images focuses on data fusion and unmixing methods. The purpose of the former is to generate synthetic fine spatial resolution data instead of directly solving the problem. In the latter, high-resolution data is only used to provide endmembers and the result is usually an abundance map rather than the true spatial distribution data. To solve this problem, this paper designs a conceptual model which divides the study area into different types of pixels at a MODIS 250 m scale. Only three types of pixels contain winter wheat, i.e., pure winter wheat pixels (P_A), the mixed pixels comprising winter wheat and other vegetation (M_A) and the mixed pixels comprising winter wheat and other crops (M_B). Different strategies are used in processing them. (1) Within the pure cultivated land pixels, the Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence is employed to analyze the similarity between unknown pixels and the pure winter wheat samples on the temporal change characteristics of NDVI. Further P_A is identified. (2) For M_A, a proposed reverse unmixing method is firstly used to extract the temporal change information of cultivated land components, after which winter wheat is identified from the cultivated land components as previously described. (3) For M_B which only appears on the border of P_A, a mask is created by expanding the P_A and temporal difference is utilized to identify winter wheat under the mask. Finally, these three results are integrated at a TM scale with the aid of 25 m resolution land use data. We applied the proposed solution and obtained a good result in the main agricultural area of the Yiluo River Basin. The identified winter wheat planting acreage is 161,050.00 hm². The result is validated based on the five-hundred random validation points. Overall accuracy is 94.80% and Kappa coefficient is 0.85. This demonstrates that the temporal information reflecting crop growth is also an important indicator, and the KL divergence makes it more convenient in identifying winter wheat. This research provided a new perspective for the combination of low and medium spatial resolution remote sensing images. The proposed solution can also be effectively applied in other places and countries for the crop which has a clear temporal change characteristic that is different from others.     

基于高分六号WFV数据的冬小麦种植面积提取

冬小麦是我国重要的粮食作物之一,准确获取冬小麦种植面积具有重要的现实意义。为探究高分六号卫星影像进行冬小麦遥感监测的可行性和精确性,本文选取甘肃省崆峒区为研究区,运用红边波段+监督分类中的支持向量机法,提取了2019年崆峒区冬小麦种植面积,并利用混淆矩阵对分类结果进行精度验证。结果表明:提取崆峒区冬小麦种植面积为15045 hm 2,与实际种植面积相比,误差率为1.02%;该模型能有效地提取崆峒区冬小麦,总体精度为98.88%,Kappa系数为0.97;红边波段能有效地提取干扰地物,提取精度比直接使用监督分类高7.88个百分点;GF6影像在提取冬小麦种植面积上具有明显优势。     

Wheat crop production estimation using satellite data

This paper reports acreage, yield and production forecasting of wheat crop using remote sensing and agrometeorological data for the 1998–99 rabi season. Wheat crop identification and discrimination using Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) ID LISS III satellite data was carried out by supervised maximum likelihood classification. Three types of wheat crop viz. wheat-1 (high vigour-normal sown), wheat-2 (moderate vigour-late sown) and wheat-3 (low vigour-very late sown) have been identified and discriminated from each other. Before final classification of satellite data spectral separability between classes were evaluated. For yield prediction of wheat crop spectral vegetation indices (RVI and NDVI), agrometeorological parameters (ET_max and TD) and historical crop yield (actual yield) trend analysis based linear and multiple linear regression models were developed. The estimated wheat crop area was 75928.0 ha. for the year 1998–99, which sowed ?2.59% underestimation with land record commissioners estimates. The yield prediction through vegetation index based and vegetation index with agrometeorological indices based models were 1753 kg/ha and 1754 kg/ha, respectively and have shown relative deviation of 0.17% and 0.22%, the production estimates from above models when compared with observed production show relative deviation of ?2.4% and ?2.3% underestimations, respectively.     

Estimating the Numbers and the Areas of Collapsed Buildings by Combining VHR Images,Statistics and Survey Data: a Case Study of the Lushan Earthquake in China

Accurately obtaining the structures and damage types of buildings in earthquake stricken areas is fundamental to supporting rescue forces and estimating economic losses and casualties. As the stricken areas are often much larger than the areas covered by very high resolution (VHR) images, the information obtained from VHR images cannot satisfy practical needs. This study developed a method for estimating the structures and types of damaged buildings by combining VHR images, statistics and ground survey data. First, the rates of damaged buildings with different structures and damage types were manually interpreted from VHR images covering a small part of the stricken area, and further corrected by ground survey data. Second, the corrected rates were reallocated to the seismic intensity zones. Third, the rates in the seismic intensity zones and the statistical data were combined to estimate the numbers and areas of damaged buildings in villages, towns and counties. The presented method was applied to estimate the damages caused by the Lushan earthquake in China. The results indicated that our method can efficiently estimate the amount of the damages and complement existing work on only automatic extracting damaged buildings from VHR images.     

利用双变量同化与PCA-Copula法的冬小麦单产估测

为了进一步提高冬小麦产量估测的精度,基于集合卡尔曼滤波算法和粒子滤波（particle filter, PF）算法,对CERES–Wheat模型模拟的冬小麦主要生育期条件植被温度指数（vegetation temperature condition index,VTCI）、叶面积指数（leaf area index, LAI）和中分辨率成像光谱仪（moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer, MODIS）数据反演的VTCI、LAI进行同化,利用主成分分析与Copula函数结合的方法构建单变量和双变量的综合长势监测指标,建立冬小麦单产估测模型,并通过对比分析选择最优模型,对2017—2020年关中平原的冬小麦单产进行估测。结果表明,单点尺度的同化VTCI、同化LAI均能综合反映MODIS观测值和模型模拟值的变化特征,且PF算法具有更好的同化效果;区域尺度下利用PF算法得到的同化VTCI和LAI所构建的双变量估产模型精度最高,与未同化VTCI和LAI构建的估产模型精度相比,研究区各县（区）的冬小麦估测单产与实际单产的均方根误差降低了56.25 kg/hm2,平均相对误差降低了1.51%,表明该模型能有效提高产量估测的精度,应用该模型进行大范围的冬小麦产量估测具有较好的适用性。     

大面积小麦遥感估产模型的构建与调试方法的研究

本文重点研究大面积冬小麦遥感估产模型构建及其调试方法。通过分析冬小麦生长发育过程,对光、温、水、肥等必须条件需求规律研究的基础上,提出了以绿度指数、温度和绿度变化速率等因子,构建大面积冬小麦遥感估产模型。为了适应大面积遥感估产运行系统的需要,在变量获取及模型调试等方面进行了一些新的探索。     

FY-3250m分辨率数据的华北平原冬小麦提取

冬小麦是中国最主要的粮食作物之一,利用遥感技术提取冬小麦种植区是遥感应用研究的一个重要方向。2008年以来发射的系列风云三号(FY-3)卫星均携带着中分辨率光谱成像仪(MERSI),该传感器有5个250 m分辨率的波段,波段范围包括可见光、近红外和热红外,观测数据包含丰富的地表信息,为大范围冬小麦种植区提取提供了新的数据源。首先,选取生长季前期多幅高质量的MERSI数据,采用分层提取的方法,对于不同的层次选用与待提取类别最为敏感的特征波段来构建相应的决策树,从而将每一幅影像中冬小麦种植区提取出来,然后,将多幅数据融合为一幅生长季内的冬小麦种植区图。最后,使用野外实地调查的数据进行精度验证,面积提取精度为90.8%。结果表明,在春季返青后,即可做出当季冬小麦种植分布图,为农情监测提供及时的信息支撑。