The Upper Ocean Thermal Structure and the Genesis Locations of Tropical Cyclones in the South China Sea

The relationship between the upper ocean thermal structure and the genesis locations of tropical cyclones （TCs） in the South China Sea （SCS） is investigated by using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center （JTWC） best-track archives and high resolution （1/4 degree） temperature analyses of the world＇s oceans in this paper In the monthly mean genesis positions of TCs from 1945 to 2005 in the SCS, the mean sea surface temperature （SST） was 28.8℃ and the mean depth of 26℃ water was 53.1 m. From the monthly distribution maps of genesis positions of TCs, SST and the depth of 26℃ water in the SCS, we discovered that there existed regions with SST exceeding 26℃ and 26℃ water depth exceeding 50m where no tropical cyclones formed from 1945 to 2005 in the SCS, which suggests that there were other factors unfavorable for TC formation in these regions.     

Numerical Simulation of Typhoon Muifa(2011) Using a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport(COAWST) Modeling System

The newly developed Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport(COAWST) Modeling System is applied to investigate typhoon-ocean interactions in this study. The COAWST modeling system represents the state-of-the-art numerical simulation technique comprising several coupled models to study coastal and environmental processes. The modeling system is applied to simulate Typhoon Muifa(2011), which strengthened from a tropical storm to a super typhoon in the Northwestern Pacific, to explore the heat fluxes exchanged among the processes simulated using the atmosphere model WRF, ocean model ROMS and wave model SWAN. These three models adopted the same horizontal grid. Three numerical experiments with different coupling configurations are performed in order to investigate the impact of typhoon-ocean interaction on the intensity and ocean response to typhoon. The simulated typhoon tracks and intensities agree with observations. Comparisons of the simulated variables with available atmospheric and oceanic observations show the good performance of using the coupled modeling system for simulating the ocean and atmosphere processes during a typhoon event. The fully coupled simulation that includes a ocean model identifies a decreased SST as a result of the typhoon-forced entrainment. Typhoon intensity and wind speed are reduced due to the decrease of the sea surface temperature when using a coupled ocean model. The experiments with ocean coupled to atmosphere also results in decreased sea surface heat flux and air temperature. The heat flux decreases by about 29% compared to the WRF only case. The reduction of the energy induced by SST decreases, resulting in weakening of the typhoon. Coupling of the waves to the atmosphere and ocean model induces a slight increase of SST in the typhoon center area with the ocean-atmosphere interaction increased as a result of wave feedback to atmosphere.     

Numerieal prediction of storm surge in the Qingdao area under the impact of climate change

A typhoon-induced storm surge simulation system was developed for the Qingdao area, including a typhoon diagnostic model for the generation of wind and pressure fields and a 2D Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model for simulating the associated storm surge with a 200 m resolution along the Qingdao coastline. The system was validated by an extreme surge event Typhoon Mamie (8509) and the parameters of Typhoon Mamie were used to investigate the sensitivity of typhoon paths to Qingdao storm surges with four selected paths: the paths of Typhoons Mamie (8509), Opal, 3921 and 2413, the selection being made according to their relative position to Qingdao. Experiments based on the Typhoon Mamie (8509) storm surge were also conducted to study the possible influences of future climate changes, including the sea level rise and sea surface temperature (SST) rise, on storm surges along the Qingdao coast. Storm surge conditions under both present day and future (the end of the 21st century) climate scenarios associated with the four selected paths were simulated. The results show that with the same intensity, when typhoons follow the paths of 3921 and 2413, they would lead to the most serious disasters in different areas of Qingdao. Sea level and SST affect storm surges in different ways: sea level rise affects storm surge mainly through its influence on the tide amplitude, while the increased SST has direct impact on the intensity of the surges. The possible maximum risk of storm surges in 2100 in the Qingdao area caused by typhoons like Mamie (8509) was also estimated in this study.     

Diagnosis of seasonal variations of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea using a genesis potential index

This study examines the seasonal variations of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea (SCS) using a genesis potential (GP) index developed by Emanuel and Nolan. How different environmental factors (including low-level vorticity, mid-level relative humidity, vertical wind shear, and potential intensity) contribute to these variations is investigated. Composite anomalies of the GP index are produced for the summer and winter monsoons separately. These composites replicate the observed seasonal variations of the observed frequency and location of tropical cyclogenesis over the SCS. The degree of contribution by each factor in different regions is determined quantitatively by producing composites of modified indices in which only one of the contributing factors varies, with the others set to climatology. Over the northern SCS, potential intensity makes the largest contributions to the seasonal variations in tropical cyclogenesis. Over the southern SCS, the low-level relative vorticity plays the primary role in the seasonal modulation of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency, and the vertical wind shear plays the secondary role. Thermodynamic factors play more important roles for the seasonal variations in tropical cyclogenesis over the northern SCS, while dynamic factors are more important in the seasonal modulation of TC genesis frequency over the southern SCS.     

Features of ocean surface winds observed by the QuikSCAT satellite before tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea

Ocean surface winds observed by the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) satellite prior to the geneses of 36 tropical cy- clones (TCs) in the South China Sea (SCS) are investigated in this paper. The results show that there are areas with negative mean horizontal divergence around the TC genesis locations three days prior to TC formation. The divergence term [-(f ζ)( u/ x v/ y)] in the vorticity equation is calculated based upon the QuikSCAT ocean surface wind data. The calculated mean divergence term is about 10.3 times the mean relative vorticity increase rate around the TC genesis position one day prior to TC genesis, which shows the important contributions of the divergence term to the vorticity increase prior to TC formation. It is suggested that criteria related with the divergence and divergence term be applied in early detections of tropical cyclogenesis using the QuikSCAT satellite data.     

Tropical Cyclone Tilts Under Vertically Varying Background Flows: Preliminary Results Based upon TCM4 Simulations

The characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) tilts under vertically varying background flows were preliminarily examined in this study based on numerical simulations with the Tropical Cyclone Model version 4 (TCM4). The tilt magnitudes presented a linearly decreasing tendency in the simulation with the environmental wind speed vertically varying throughout the troposphere and in the simulation with the vertical wind shear concentrated in the lower troposphere, while the vortex tilt showed a linearly increasing tendency in magnitude in the simulation where the vertical shear was concentrated in the upper troposphere. The change in tilt magnitude was found to be related to the evolution of the penetration depth near the eyewall. When the shear was concentrated in the lower troposphere, the vortex tended to tilt downshear right during the early integration and underwent more precession processes. When the shear was concentrated in the upper troposphere, the vortex rapidly tilted downshear left during the early simulation and vortex precession was less frequently observed. The storms simulated in all experiments were finally in downshear-left tilt equilibrium.     

EAST CHINA SEA RESPONSE TO TROPICAL CYCLONES

The response of the East China Sea (ECS) to a tropical cyclone (TC) is studied with a two-layernonlinear primitive equation ocean model. Numerica experiments indicate that there is rightward bias inocean response to a moving TC. The initial middle layer (ML) depth and stratification intensity havesubstantial impact on the Changes of SST and ML depth. The initial ML depth has large effect onthe value of the current, whereas the initial stratification intensity has slight influence on it. Thedistribution of ECS ML depth, especially the special ocean thermal structure on the continental shelf facil-itates the drop of SST. The simulation results of ocean response to Typhoon 7002 are fairly consistentwith the observation data.     

Modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea by ENSO Modoki during boreal summer

This study examines the modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea(SCS) by the El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) Modoki during the boreal summer. Results reveal that there were more tropical cyclones(TCs) formed over the SCS during central Pacific warming years and less TC frequency during central Pacific cooling years. How different environmental factors(including low-level relative vorticity, mid-level relative humidity, vertical wind shear, and potential intensity) contribute to this influence is investigated, using a genesis potential(GP) index developed by Emanuel and Nolan. Composite anomalies of the GP index are produced for central Pacific warming and cooling years separately, which could account for the changes of TC frequency over the SCS in different ENSO Modoki phases. The degree of contribution by each factor is determined quantitatively by producing composites of modified indices in which only one of the contributing factors varies, with the others set to climatology. The results suggest that the vertical wind shear and low-level relative vorticity, which are associated with the ENSO Modoki-induced anomalous circulations in Matsuno-Gill patterns, make the largest contributions to the ENSO Modoki modulation of tropical cyclogenesis over the SCS as implied by the GP index. These results highlight the important roles of dynamic factors in the modulation of TC frequency over the SCS by the ENSO Modoki during the boreal summer.     

Influence of summer monsoon on asymmetric bimodal pattern of tropical cyclogenesis frequency over the Bay of Bengal

The influence of summer monsoon on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is explored using an empirical genesis potential (GP) index. The annual cycle of cyclogenesis frequency over the BoB shows an asymmetric bimodal pattern with the maximum genesis number appearing in late October and the second largest in early May. The two peaks correspond to the withdrawal and onset of the BoB summer monsoon, respectively. The semimonthly GP index calculated without TC days over the BoB is consistent with TC genesis frequency, indicating that the index captures the monsoon-induced changes in the environment that are responsible for the seasonal variation of TC genesis frequency. Of the four environmental variables (i.e., low-level vorticity, mid-level relative humidity, potential intensity, and vertical wind shear) that enter into the GP index, the potential intensity makes the largest contribution to the bimodal distribution, followed by vertical wind shear due to small wind speed during the summer monsoon onset and withdrawal. The difference in TC genesis frequency between autumn and late spring is mainly owing to the relative humid-ity difference because a divergence (convergence) of horizontal moisture flux associated with cold dry northerlies (warm wet wester-lies) dominates the BoB in late spring (autumn).     

Impacts of SST anomalies in the Indian-Pacific basin on Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone activities during three super El Ni?o years

This study investigated the impact of sea surface temperature(SST)in several important areas of the Indian-Pacific basin on tropical cyclone(TC)activity over the western North Pacific(WNP)during the developing years of three super El Ni?o events(1982,1997,and 2015)based on observations and numerical simulations.During the super El Ni?o years,TC intensity was enhanced considerably,TC days increased,TC tracks mostly recurved along the coasts,and fewer TCs made landfall in China.These characteristics are similar to the strong ENSO-TC relationship but further above the climatological means than in strong El Ni?o years.It indicates that super El Ni?o events play a dominant role in the intensities and tracks of WNP TCs.However,there were clear differences in both numbers and positions of TC genesis among the different super El Ni?o years.These features could be attributed to the collective impact of SST anomalies(SSTAs)in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and East Indian Ocean(EIO)and the SST gradient(SSTG)between the southwestern Pacific and the western Pacific warm pool.During 2015,the EIO SSTA was extremely warm and the anomalous anticyclone in the western WNP was enhanced,resulting in fewer TCs than normal.In 1982,the EIO SSTA and spring SSTG showed negative anomalies,followed by an increased anomalous cyclone in the western WNP and equatorial vertical wind shear.This intensified the conversion of eddy kinetic energy from large-scale flows,favorable for the westward shift of TC genesis.Consequently,anomalous TC activities during the super El Ni?o years resulted mainly from combined SSTA impacts of different key areas over the Indian-Pacific basin.     

连续台风时期香港区域的水汽变化分析

利用香港卫星定位参考站网GNSS观测数据,提取强热带风暴"塔拉斯"与热带风暴"洛克"影响期间各测站天顶方向对流层延迟,反演香港区域大气可降水量;根据香港区域49个天文台气象站提供的实测降雨量数据,分析大气可降水量与实际降雨量的相关性,以及两次台风对香港区域水汽时空分布的不同影响。结果表明,大气可降水量在台风影响前期均上升,在大量降雨后回落,但在连续台风的间歇期间,仍高于台风来临前的水平;水汽累积是大量降雨的前提条件,当水汽累积量相近时,水汽累积时长与累积降雨量呈正相关;台风期间大气可降水量值超过65 mm的区域面积与台风等级相关,台风路径对局部水汽分布有一定的影响。     

An Elliptical Wind Field Model of Typhoons

1　Introduction　Thestormsurgeisoneofthemostimportantphe nomenathatendangerthecoastalengineeringfacili ties .Everyyearthereareabout 1 2tropicalcyclonesmakinglandfallatthemainlandofChinafromMaytoOctober (MuandTu ,2 0 0 0 ) .Whentheastronomictideishigh ,the…     

An interdecadal change of tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea in the early 1990s

Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the South China Sea (SCS) during 1979-2008 underwent a decadal variation around 1993. A total of 55 TCs formed in the SCS from May to September during 1994- 2008, about twice that during 1979-1993 (27). During the TC peak season (July-September, JAS), there were 43TCs from 1994-2008, but only 17 during 1979-1993. For July in particular, 13TCs formed from 1994-2008, but there were none during 1979-1993. The change in TC number is associated with changes of key environmental conditions in atmosphere and ocean. Compared to 1979-1993, the subtropical high was significantly weaker and was displaced more eastward during 1994-2008. In the former period, a stronger subtropical high induced downward flow, inhibiting TC formation. In the latter period, vertical wind shear and outgoing longwave radiation all weakened. Mid-level (850-500hPa) humidity, and relative vorticity were higher. Sea surface temperature and upper layer heat content were also higher in the area. All these factors favor TC genesis during the latter period. The decadal change of TC genesis led to more landfalling TCs in Southern China during the period 1994-2008, which contributed to an abrupt increase in regional rainfall.     

Wave-current interaction during Typhoon Nuri (2008) and Hagupit (2008):an application of the coupled ocean-wave modeling system in the northern South China Sea

The northern South China Sea(SCS) is frequently affected by typhoons. During severe storm events, wave-current interactions produce storm surges causing enormous damage in the path of the typhoon. To evaluate the influence of wave-current interactions on storm surge, we used a coupled ocean-atmospherewave-sediment transport(COAWST) modeling system with radiation-stress and vortex-force formulations to simulate two typically intense tropical storms that invaded the SCS, namely Typhoons Nuri(2008) and Hagupit(2008), and compared results with observations from the Hong Kong Observatory. Both radiationstress and vortex-force formulations significantly improved the accuracy of the simulation. Depending on which typhoon and the topography encountered, the influence of surface waves on the oceanic circulation showed different characteristics, including the differences of range and intensity of storm surge between vortex-force and radiation-stress experiments. During typhoon landing, strong sea-surface elevation in concert with wave set-up/set-down caused the adjustment of the momentum balance. In the direction perpendicular to the current, but especially in the cross-shore direction, the pressure gradient and wave effects on the current dominated the momentum balance.     

Numerical Simulation and Analysis of Storm Surges Under Different Extreme Weather Event and Typhoon Experiments in the South Yellow Sea

In this study,a coupled tide-surge-wave model was developed and applied to the South Yellow Sea.The coupled model simulated the evolution of storm surges and waves caused by extreme weather events,such as tropical cyclones,cold waves,extratropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave,and tropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave.The modeled surge level and significant wave height matched the measured data well.Simulation results of the typhoon with different intensities revealed that the radius to the maximum wind speed of a typhoon with 1.5 times wind speed decreased,and its influence range was farther away from the Jiangsu coastal region;moreover,the impact on surge levels was weakened.Thereafter,eight hypothetical typhoons based on Typhoon Chan-hom were designed to investigate the effects of varying typhoon tracks on the extreme value and spatial distribution of storm surges in the offshore area of Jiangsu Province.The typhoon along path 2 mainly affected the Rudong coast,and the topography of the Rudong coast was conducive to the increase in surge level.Therefore,the typhoon along path 2 induced the largest surge level,which reached up to 2.91 m in the radial sand ridge area.The maximum surge levels in the Haizhou Bay area and the middle straight coastline area reached up to 2.37 and 2.08 m,respectively.In terms of typhoons active in offshore areas,the radial sand ridge area was most likely to be threatened by typhoon-induced storm surges.     

大尺度环流系统对西北太平洋变性TC频数影响的气候诊断分析

基于中国热带气旋年鉴资料,从气候学角度出发,对西北太平洋TC(热带气旋)发生温带变性的频数与大尺度环流系统间的关系进行了诊断和分析.研究发现变性TC多发生于夏、秋两季,通过对NCEP月平均再分析资料的500hPa高度场进行EOF分解,发现西北太平洋TC变性的频数与65°N附近强冷高压系统在夏、秋两季都存在着正相关关系,且相关性在秋季高于夏季;与30°N附近强副热带高压系统存在负相关关系,夏季副热带高压系统的作用更大;与30°N以南西北太平洋多台风活动区域的弱低压存在显著的负相关,低压越弱,对流越弱,则TC的生成数越少,其中发生变性的TC数也会减少.500hPa高度场EOF分解的第一特征向量所对应的时间函数分布在20世纪70年代中期前后出现了反号,较好地对应了变性TC年频数的年际变化趋势,70年代中期之前变性TC呈总体偏多,之后变性TC的频数总体偏少,呈明显下降趋势.     

Statistical Analysis of Tropical Disturbances over the South China Sea During 1997-2006

Tropical disturbances over the South China Sea (SCS) during the period of 1997-2006 are analyzed using the Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products. A total of 158 tropical disturbances were formed over the SCS from 1997 to 2006, with 54 developing tropical disturbances which developed into tropical depressions and 104 non-developing tropical disturbances which never developed into tropical depressions. The development rate of tropical disturbances into tropical depressions was 34.18% in these ten years. During the period of this study, total annual numbers of tropical disturbances and developing tropical disturbances over the SCS had significant decreasing trends; however, the development rate of tropical disturbances had an insignificant increasing trend.     

Does the Asian monsoon modulate tropical cyclone activity over the South China Sea?

To investigate whether the Asian monsoon influences tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the South China Sea (SCS), TCs (including tropical storms and typhoons) over the SCS are analyzed using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center dataset from 1945 to 2009. Results show an increasing trend in the frequencies of TC-all (all TCs over the SCS) and TY-all (all typhoons over the SCS), due mainly to an increase in the number of TCs moving into the SCS after development elsewhere. Little change is seen in the number of TCs that form in the SCS. The results of wavelet analysis indicate that the frequency of typhoons (TY) shows a similar oscillation as that of TCs, i.e., a dominant periodicity of 8-16 years around the 1970s for all TC activity, except for TC-mov (TCs that moved into the SCS from the western North Pacific). To examine the relationship between typhoon activity and the summer monsoon, a correlation analysis was performed that considered typhoons, TCs, and five monsoon indexes. The analysis reveals statistically significant negative correlation between the strength of the Southwest Asian summer monsoon and typhoon activity over the SCS, which likely reflects the effect of the monsoon on TC formation in the western North Pacific (WNP) and subsequent movement into the SCS. There is a statistically significant negative correlation between TY-loc (typhoons that developed from TCs formed over the SCS) and the South China Sea summer monsoon and Southeast Asian summer monsoon.     

台风对中国东南海域叶绿素a浓度影响的遥感研究

通过对台风过境前后近一个月的MODIS卫星3A级叶绿素a浓度及海表温度数据的比较与分析,发现海表温度,海表叶绿素a浓度均受到较大的影响,其中海表温度平均下降2~3℃,最高下降近10℃;同时叶绿素a浓度在湛江、阳江海域升高约1.43倍,在东海海域平均升高2.44倍,最高可达9.75倍,并且叶绿素a浓度增长有一个约3~5 d的延迟效应。由此可见,利用卫星遥感资料监测台风对海洋叶绿素a浓度、海表表温度等环境参数的变化有应用前景。     

Statistical analysis of tropical disturbances over the South China Sea during 1997�C2006

Tropical disturbances over the South China Sea (SCS) during the period of 1997-2006 are analyzed using the Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products. A total of 158 tropical disturbances were formed over the SCS from 1997 to 2006, with 54 de-veloping tropical disturbances which developed into tropical depressions and 104 non-developing tropical disturbances which never developed into tropical depressions. The development rate of tropical disturbances into tropical depressions was 34.18% in these ten years. During the period of this study, total annual numbers of tropical disturbances and developing tropical disturbances over the SCS had significant decreasing trends; however, the development rate of tropical disturbances had an insignificant increasing trend.