Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Taiwan Region on the Basis of Recent Strong-Motion Data and Prognostic Zonation of Future Earthquakes

The paper describes an integrated approach to seismic hazard assessment, which was applied for the Taiwan region. First, empirical modelsfor ground motion estimation in the region were obtained on the basisof records from recent (1993-1999) earthquakes. The databaseincludes strong-motion data collected during the recent Chi-Chiearthquake (M=7.6, 21 September 1999) and large (M=6.8)aftershocks. The ground-motion database was also used for evaluationof generalised site amplification functions for typical soil classes(B, C and D). Second, the theoretical seismic catalogue (2001–2050)for the Taiwan region had been calculated using the 4D-model(location, depth, time) for dynamic deformation of the Earth' crustand 5D-model (location, depth, time, magnitude) for seismic process.The models were developed on the basis of available geophysical andgeodynamic data that include regional seismic catalogue. Third, theregion & site & time-dependent seismic analysis, which is basedon schemes of probable earthquake zones evaluated from the theoreticalcatalogue, regional ground motion models, and local site responsecharacteristics, has been performed. The seismic hazard maps arecompiled in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and ResponseSpectra (RS) amplitudes. The maps show distribution of amplitudesthat will not be exceeded with certain probability in condition oftypical soil classes during all possible earthquakes that may occur inthe region during time period of 2003–2025. The approach allowsintroducing new parameter that describes dependency of seismichazard on time, so-called 'period of maximum hazard'. Theparameter shows the period, during which every considered sitewill be subjected by the maximum value of ground motioncharacteristic (PGA or RS).     

Effect of Aftershocks on Earthquake Hazard Estimation: An Example from the North Anatolian Fault Zone

In order to investigate the effect of aftershocks on earthquake hazard estimation, earthquake hazard parameters (_m, b and M_max) have been estimated by the maximum likelihood method from the main shocks catalogue and the raw earthquakes catalogue for the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). The main shocks catalogue has been compiled from the raw earthquake catalogue by eliminating the aftershocks using the window method. The raw earthquake catalogue consisted of instrumentally detected earthquakes between 1900 and 1992, and historical earthquakes that occurred between 1000–1900. For the events of the mainshock catalogue the Poisson process is valid and for the raw earthquake catalogue it does not fit. The paper demonstrates differences in the hazard outputs if on one hand the main catalogues and on the other hand the raw catalogue is used. The maximum likelihood method which allows the use of the mixed earthquake catalogue containing incomplete (historical) and complete (instrumental) earthquake data is used to determine the earthquake hazard parameters. The maximum regional magnitude (M_max, the seismic activity rate (_m), the mean return period (R) and the b value of the magnitude-frequency relation have been estimated for the 24°–31° E, 31°–41° E, 41°–45° E sections of the North Anatolian Fault Zone from the raw earthquake catalogue and the main shocks catalogue. Our results indicate that inclusion of aftershocks changes the b value and the seismic activity rate _m depending on the proportion of aftershocks in a region while it does not significantly effect the value of the maximum regional magnitude since it is related to the maximum observed magnitude. These changes in the earthquake hazard parameters caused the return periods to be over- and underestimated for smaller and larger events, respectively.     

Statistical Completeness Analysis of Seismic Data

Earthquakes constitute one of the most powerful forces to which most civil engineering structures and historical constructions will ever be subjected; and thus designing and preserving structures to resist these forces is of utmost importance. The goal of earthquake-resistant design is to produce a structure or facility that can withstand a certain level of shaking without excessive damage. Seismic hazard analyses involve the quantitative estimation of ground shaking hazards at a particular site.The main objective of this study is to develop a homogeneous earthquake catalogue for the low seismic region Warangal from 1800 to 2016 by considering a circular radius of 500 km. The catalogue is declustered using the algorithm proposed by Uhrhammer (1986) for removal of foreshocks and aftershocks. All the events have been converted to moment magnitude scale for homogenization. Completeness analysis has been carried out using the method proposed by Stepp (1972) to determine the time interval in which the data is complete over different magnitude ranges. The analysis shows that for the magnitude range of 3.0 ≤ M ≤ 3.49, 3.5 ≤ M ≤ 3.99, 4.0 ≤ M ≤ 4.49, 4.5 ≤ M ≤ 4.99, 5.0 ≤ M ≤ 5.49 and M ≤ 5.49, the data is complete for the last 50 years (1967-2016), 60 years (1957-2016), 140 years (1867-2016) and 180 years (1837-2016) respectively. This study will provide a significant under-standing in distribution of earthquakes in Warangal region as well as the assessment of seismic hazard for the region.     

A deterministic seismic hazard analysis for shallow earthquakes in Greece

The maximum expected ground motion in Greece is estimated for shallow earthquakes using a deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA). In order to accomplish this analysis the input data include an homogeneous catalogue of earthquakes for the period 426 BC–2003, a seismogenic source model with representative focal mechanisms and a set of velocity models. Because of the discrete character of the earthquake catalogue and of errors in location of single seismic events, a smoothing algorithm is applied to the catalogue of the main shocks to get a spatially smoothed distribution of magnitude. Based on the selected input parameters synthetic seismograms for an upper frequency content of 1 Hz are computed on a grid of 0.2° × 0.2°. The resultant horizontal components for displacement, velocity, acceleration and DGA (Design Ground Acceleration) are mapped. The maps which depict these results cannot be compared with previously published maps based on probabilistic methodologies as the latter were compiled for a mean return period of 476 years. Therefore, in order to validate our deterministic analysis, the final results are compared with PGA estimated from the maximum observed macroseismic intensity in Greece during the period 426 BC–2003.Since the results are obtained for point sources, with the frequency content scaled with moment magnitude, some sensitivity tests are performed to assess the influence of the finite extent of fault related to large events. Sensitivity tests are also performed to investigate the changes in the peak ground motion quantities when varying the crustal velocity models in some seismogenic areas. The ratios and the relative differences between the results obtained using different models are mapped and their mean value computed. The results highlight the importance in the deterministic approach of using good and reliable velocity models.     

A complete and homogeneous magnitude earthquake catalogue of Iraq

A complete and homogeneous magnitude earthquake catalogue spanning the period 1900 to 2010 was created. The catalogue covers the area 29° to 37.5° N and 39° to 48° E. Entries in the new earthquake catalogue were cross checked and additions made from various sources of earthquake records to ensure that repetitions are not included in this analysis. Events were considered duplicates if they had a time difference of 10 s or less and space origin difference of 0.5° or less. In a given set of duplicate events, an event, which had a magnitude and International Seismological Center source, was retained as the record of the event. The unified magnitude scale, the moment magnitude (M _w), was applied throughout the catalogue. The M _w for 18 events was reported. The M _w for other events was estimated using empirical relations between m _b, M _s, M _L, and M _w. Magnitude of completeness, M _c, was estimated using the maximum curvature. It was 4.3 M _w. Finally, a list of 213 events from 1900 to 2010 with M _w?≥?4.3 is presented. The list is considered complete for the period from 1962 to 2010.     

Multifractality in seismic sequences of NW Himalaya

Multifractal behaviour of interevent time sequences is investigated for the earthquake events in the NW Himalaya, which is one of the most seismically active zones of India and experienced moderate to large damaging earthquakes in the past. In the present study, the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is used to understand the multifractal behaviour of the earthquake data. For this purpose, a complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogue of the period 1965–2013 with a magnitude of completeness M _w 4.3 is used. The analysis revealed the presence of multifractal behaviour and sharp changes near the occurrence of three earthquakes of magnitude (M _w ) greater than 6.6 including the October 2005, Muzaffarabad–Kashmir earthquake. The multifractal spectrum and related parameters are explored to understand the time dynamics and clustering of the events.

     

Performance evaluation of the M8 algorithm to predict M7+ earthquakes in Turkey

The M8 algorithm is one of the most reliable intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction algorithms. The present study evaluates the ability of the M8 algorithm and its modified versions for predicting major events (M7+) in Turkey. Thirty different algorithms were developed by changing the radius of circle of investigation (CI) and the lower magnitude cutoff of the M8 algorithm. These modified algorithms were executed all over the territory of Turkey, and the results were evaluated using the error diagram. Each modified algorithm was executed for consecutive half-year intervals over a specified period of time. Subsequently, the seismic catalog was updated, and failures-to-predict ratio and the fraction of alarm were considered. Results showed that the location of areas of alarm change gradually over consecutive intervals, and no sudden changes can be observed. In addition, the annual changes of areas of alarm are not random and follow a pattern. This study also showed that the modified algorithm having a three to six annual average of events and a 393-km CI radius is an efficient algorithm for predicting the future seismic events in Turkey. This algorithm predicted six out of six target events, retrospectively, with a confidence level of 96.4 %. According to the obtained results, it will be possible to rely on this modified algorithm to predict near future earthquakes of Turkey. Furthermore, this study proves that it is possible to alter the M8 algorithm for being used in regional studies.     

Climate extremes: an observation and projection of its impacts on food production in ASEAN

Multifractal behaviour of interevent time sequences is investigated for the earthquake events in the NW Himalaya, which is one of the most seismically active zones of India and experienced moderate to large damaging earthquakes in the past. In the present study, the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is used to understand the multifractal behaviour of the earthquake data. For this purpose, a complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogue of the period 1965–2013 with a magnitude of completeness M _w 4.3 is used. The analysis revealed the presence of multifractal behaviour and sharp changes near the occurrence of three earthquakes of magnitude (M _w ) greater than 6.6 including the October 2005, Muzaffarabad–Kashmir earthquake. The multifractal spectrum and related parameters are explored to understand the time dynamics and clustering of the events.     

NIED seismic moment tensor catalogue for regional earthquakes around Japan: quality test and application

We have examined the quality of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) seismic moment tensor (MT) catalogue obtained using a regional broadband seismic network (FREESIA). First, we examined using synthetic waveforms the robustness of the solutions with regard to data noise as well as to errors in the velocity structure and focal location. Then, to estimate the reliability, robustness and validity of the catalogue, we compared it with the Harvard centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalogue as well as the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) focal mechanism catalogue. We found out that the NIED catalogue is consistent with Harvard and JMA catalogues within the uncertainty of 0.1 in moment magnitude, 10 km in depth, and 15° in direction of the stress axes. The NIED MT catalogue succeeded in reducing to 3.5 the lower limit of moment magnitude above which the moment tensor could be reliably estimated. Finally, we estimated the stress tensors in several different regions by using the NIED MT catalogue. This enables us to elucidate the stress/deformation field in and around the Japanese islands to understand the mode of deformation and applied stress. Moreover, we identified a region of abnormal stress in a swarm area from stress tensor estimates.     

Intensity field of the 19 June 1975 Gargano (Southern Italy) earthquake

Many moderate events reported by Italian earthquake catalogues (either historical or recent) are listed with an epicentral intensity derived from intensitymagnitude relationships or evaluated based on preliminary sources. Contradictions may arise among different catalogues when the effects of a given earthquake are not assessed through a specific macroseismic study as each catalogue generally uses its own criteria for evaluating the intensity. In this paper we present the case of the June 19 1975 earthquake, a M_L = 5.1 (ING seismological bulletin) event that occurred in the Gargano area (southern Italy). The intensity reported by the ING catalogue is VIII MCS (estimated from magnitude), that reported by the NT4.1 catalogue is VI MCS, while the PFG catalogue does not report an intensity. The case of this event is well representative of a period during which macroseismic studies were not undertaken systematically in Italy. In this paper we reassess the macroseismic intensity of this event using procedures implemented and routinely used at ING.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Constantine region,Northeast of Algeria

This paper presents a seismic hazard evaluation and develops an earthquake catalogue for the Constantine region over the period from 1357 to 2014. The study contributes to the improvement of seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazards in Northeast Algeria. A regional seismicity analysis was conducted based on reliable earthquake data obtained from various agencies (CRAAG, IGN, USGS and ISC). All magnitudes (M _l, m _b) and intensities (I ₀, I _MM, I _MSK and I _EMS) were converted to M _s magnitudes using the appropriate relationships. Earthquake hazard maps were created for the Constantine region. These maps were estimated in terms of spectral acceleration (SA) at periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 s. Five seismogenic zones are proposed. This new method differs from the conventional method because it incorporates earthquake magnitude uncertainty and mixed datasets containing large historical events and recent data. The method can be used to estimate the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, annual activity rate λ(M) of an event and maximum possible magnitude M _max using incomplete and heterogeneous data files. In addition, an earthquake is considered a Poisson with an annual activity rate λ and with a doubly truncated exponential earthquake magnitude distribution. Map of seismic hazard and an earthquake catalogue, graphs and maps were created using geographic information systems (GIS), the Z-map code version 6 and Crisis software 2012.     

The August 2, 2007, Nevelsk earthquake: Instrumental data analysis

A catalogue of aftershocks of the 2007 Nevelsk earthquake (M _w = 6.2) was prepared on the basis of the data from the local network of digital seismic stations established on the southern part of Sakhalin Island. The parameters of the aftershock hypocenters were determined using the method of the seismic wave travel time inversion. The errors in the determination of the coordinates of the seismic events were analyzed. The particularities of the spatiotemporal distribution of the aftershocks in the source zone of the earthquake were established. It was shown that a strong aftershock was a subsource earthquake with its own source zone. This explains the disagreement between the energetic characteristics and the size of the aftershock zone of the Nevelsk earthquake.     

Source Parameters of Old Earthquakes: Semi-Automatic Digitization of Analog Records and Seismic Moment Assessment

Recovering seismic information contained in old analog records could increase our knowledge of seismic source characteristics and the seismicity of a region. This is particularly important in zones with low to moderate seismicity.To extract the available information, it is necessary to digitize the seismic records. This is not an easy task especially owing to the generally poor quality of the original records, with illegible or missing parts. However some exceptions were found in the records of a few seismological stations in Germany, Sweden and France.This paper presents an example of the recovering of source parameters and can be divided in two parts: the first one presents a simple semi-automatic technique for digitization of old analog seismic records, developed using commercial software on a PC; the second part describes the methodology of assessing the seismic moment, using empirical and theoretical relations, as well as the seismic source dimensions.The earthquake selected to illustrate this procedure is the 23 April 1909 Benavente (Portugal) earthquake. This earthquake occurred in the Lower Tagus Valley region and caused great destruction in the meizoseismal area. It is the biggest earthquake that occurred during this century in the central part of the country and its magnitude has been estimated between 6.6 and 7.6.The digitization procedure allowed the recovery of seismic information contained in old analog records, in particular, the seismic moment estimation. The results obtained indicated that 7.6 was a very high value for the magnitude of the 23 April 1909 earthquake, suggesting that the magnitude reported in the Portuguese catalogue is overestimated. The estimated moment magnitude is 6.0.     

地震成因软沉积物变形记录的地震强度研究进展

〗确定地震震级对中长期地震预报、震后应急救援和地震危险性评价具有重要意义。古地震学是研究地质记录中的地震事件,特别是它们的位置、时间和震级大小。然而,传统由地表破裂参数确定的古地震震级仍存在不确定性（大多数地震事件不会导致地表破裂,或位移小于0.3m）,尤其是由湖泊沉积记录的古地震事件。为了解决未发现明显位错地震震级问题,本文依据软沉积物变形构造的类型和形式,对确定地震震级/强度的方法（经验估算、最大液化距离、扰动层厚度、软沉积物变形类型,经验公式,快速沉积砂层厚度）进行总结和讨论,并分析其理论基础、优缺点、误差大小、适用性、存在问题等。并以中东死海盆地利桑组晚更新世湖相沉积中的震积岩(混杂层)和岷江上游萝卜寨晚第四纪湖相沉积中地震成因的液化底劈为例,利用上述6种方法推断,其代表的震级分别为M5.5~6.5和M6.0~7.0,进一步证实了前人的研究结果。这6种方法的结合,为确定地震震级/强度,特别是湖泊沉积中的地震事件提供了一种新的、相对便捷的方法。该研究可为基于地表破裂参数确定的古地震震级提供可靠的参考,为更好地认识构造活跃的地震活动性和危险性提供数据支持。     

Improving the level of seismic hazard parameters in Saudi Arabia using earthquake location

Saudi Arabia is characterized as largely aseismic; however, the tectonic plate boundaries that surround it are very active. To improve characterization of seismicity and ground motion hazard, the Saudi Arabian Digital Seismic Network (SANDSN) was installed in 1998 and continues to be operated by the Saudi Geological Survey (SGS) and King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST). This article describes research performed to improve seismic hazard parameters using earthquake location and magnitude calibration of the high-quality SANDSN data. The SANDSN consists of 38 seismic stations, 27 broadband, and 11 short period. All data are telemetered in real time to a central facility at KACST in Riyadh. The SANDSN stations show low background noise levels and have good signal detection capabilities; however, some stations show cultural noise at frequencies above 1.0 Hz. We assessed the SANDSN event location capabilities by comparing KACST locations with well-determined locations derived from ground truth or global observations. While a clear location bias exists when using the global average iasp91 earth model, the locations can be improved by using regional models optimized for different tectonic source regions. The article presents detailed analysis of some events and Dead Sea explosions where we found gross errors in estimated locations. New velocity models we calculated that should improve estimated locations of regional events in three specific regions include (1) Gulf of Aqabah—Dead Sea region, (2) Arabian Shield, and (3) Arabian Platform. Recently, these models were applied to the SANDSN to improve local and teleseismic event locations and to develop an accurate magnitude scale for Saudi Arabia. The Zagros Thrust presents the most seismic hazard to eastern Saudi Arabia because of the frequent occurrence of earthquakes. Although these events are 200 km or further from the Arabian coast, wave propagation through sedimentary structure of the Gulf causes long-duration ground motions for periods between 3 and 10 s. Such ground motions could excite response in large engineered structures (e.g., tall buildings and long bridges) such as was experienced after the November 22, 2005 Qeshm Island earthquake off the southern coast of Iran.     

地震机理的地球系统科学研究及预测实践

本文提出了一个新的地震机理模型:高温高压高导低速流变体震源腔(简称震源腔)与闭锁断层组合模型。高温高压下的软流圈物质在复杂相变空间中,受到温度场中的异重流作用和受迫振动作用而形成深源震源腔。随着软流圈物质上涌, 幔汁在温度差和压力差驱使下,涌入地壳中的物理空间,形成浅源地震震源腔。由于温度升高使得腔体内岩石部分熔融或全部熔融,释放出大量气液流体,拓展腔体空间范围,同时提升腔体内压。当腔体内部有效压力(即内压与上覆地壳压力之差)达到腔体边缘或者上方与脆性活动断层交会部位的岩石破坏强度时,震源腔便进入临界状态。当软流圈物质上涌继续向腔体内供能,或者由于星体连线在震源区造成触发作用,便引起震源腔的隐蔽爆炸,即隐爆,释放腔体内部积累的能量,同时释放区域构造应力场作用于闭锁断层积累的应变能。 腔体隐爆释放能量与腔体规模正相关。闭锁断层释放应变能与闭锁断层规模、闭锁区大小以及区域构造应力场强度相关。震源腔与脆性活动断层交会部位,是潜在震源位置。多年观测资料表明,震源腔从进入临界状态到隐爆,一般经历1~13天,平均7天。长期观测表明,潜在震中区在震前经常出现干旱、气温升高、海温升高、大量水汽释放等异常现象。通过超低频地震仪监测、重力波作用于水汽形成的地震云的观测、次声波的监测、卫星重力异常反映的高程面垂向震荡监测、以及地基卫星导航系统地面升降监测等,都显示出震源腔进入临界状态后的胀缩震荡引起震中及其外围地面的垂向振动。文中还给出了震源腔体隐爆遗迹的直接证据。     

地震成因软沉积物变形记录的地震强度研究进展

〗确定地震震级对中长期地震预报、震后应急救援和地震危险性评价具有重要意义。古地震学是研究地质记录中的地震事件,特别是它们的位置、时间和震级大小。然而,传统由地表破裂参数确定的古地震震级仍存在不确定性（大多数地震事件不会导致地表破裂,或位移小于0.3m）,尤其是由湖泊沉积记录的古地震事件。为了解决未发现明显位错地震震级问题,本文依据软沉积物变形构造的类型和形式,对确定地震震级/强度的方法（经验估算、最大液化距离、扰动层厚度、软沉积物变形类型,经验公式,快速沉积砂层厚度）进行总结和讨论,并分析其理论基础、优缺点、误差大小、适用性、存在问题等。并以中东死海盆地利桑组晚更新世湖相沉积中的震积岩(混杂层)和岷江上游萝卜寨晚第四纪湖相沉积中地震成因的液化底劈为例,利用上述6种方法推断,其代表的震级分别为M5.5~6.5和M6.0~7.0,进一步证实了前人的研究结果。这6种方法的结合,为确定地震震级/强度,特别是湖泊沉积中的地震事件提供了一种新的、相对便捷的方法。该研究可为基于地表破裂参数确定的古地震震级提供可靠的参考,为更好地认识构造活跃的地震活动性和危险性提供数据支持。