Changes in the ionosphere prior to weak earthquakes in the Irkutsk region

Data from 15-minute measurements at the vertical ionospheric sounding station in Irkutsk during the summer months of 2008–2011 are analyzed in order to detect in the ionosphere effects of preparation of weak earthquakes of the K = 10–12 energy class. The method of revealing disturbances in ionospheric parameters by simultaneous observations of the sporadic E layer and regular F2 layer, which was previously applied by the authors in the case of stronger earthquakes, was used. The efficiency of using this method to detect ionospheric disturbances preceding earthquakes also in the case of weak earthquakes is demonstrated. Possible ionospheric precursors of the selected series of earthquakes are identified. For them, an empirical dependence relating the time of advance of the shock moment by the probable ionospheric precursor on the energy class of the earthquake and the epicenter distance to the observation point is found.     

Possible Short-Term Precursors of Strong Crustal Earthquakes in Japan based on Data from the Ground Stations of Vertical Ionospheric Sounding

We have studied changes in the ionosphere prior to strong crustal earthquakes with magnitudes of М ≥ 6.5 based on the data from the ground-based stations of vertical ionospheric sounding Kokobunji, Akita, and Wakkanai for the period 1968–2004. The data are analyzed based on hourly measurements of the virtual height and frequency parameters of the sporadic E layer and critical frequency of the regular F2 layer over the course of three days prior to the earthquakes. In the studied intervals of time before all earthquakes, anomalous changes were discovered both in the frequency parameters of the Es and F2 ionospheric layers and in the virtual height of the sporadic E layer; the changes were observed on the same day at stations spaced apart by several hundred kilometers. A high degree of correlation is found between the lead-time of these ionospheric anomalies preceding the seismic impact and the magnitude of the subsequent earthquakes. It is concluded that such ionospheric disturbances can be short-term ionospheric precursors of earthquakes.     

Physical mechanism and mathematical modeling of earthquake ionospheric precursors registered in total electron content

The physical mechanism by which the regions with increased or decreased total electron content, registered by measuring delays of GPS satellite signals before strong earthquakes, originate in the ionosphere has been proposed. Vertical plasma transfer in the ionospheric F ₂ region under the action of the zonal electric field is the main disturbance formation factor. This field should be eastward, generating the upward component of plasma electromagnetic drift, in the cases of increased total electron content at midlatitudes and deepened minimum of the F ₂ layer equatorial anomaly. Upward plasma drift increases electron density due to a decrease in the O⁺ ion loss rate at midlatitudes and decreases this density above the equator due to an enhancement of the fountain effect (plasma discharge into the equatorial anomaly crests). The pattern of the spatial distribution of the seismogenic electric field potential has been proposed. The eastward electric field can exist in the epicentral region only if positive and negative electric charges are located at the western and eastern boundaries of this region, respectively. The effectiveness of the proposed mechanism was studied by modeling the ionospheric response to the action of the electric field generated by such a charge configuration. The results of the numerical computations indicated that the total electron content before strong earthquakes at middle and low latitudes is in good agreement with the observations.     

Disturbances in the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 region critical frequency before the earthquake of September 11, 2008 off the coast of Hokkaido,Japan, and during a moderate magnetic storm based on data from ground-based vertical ionosphere sounding stations

Based on data from ground-based vertical sounding stations, the behaviors of the ionosphere F region before a strong M 6.8 earthquake off the coast of Hokkaido, Japan, and during the moderate magnetic storm before this earthquake are compared. It was found that the critical frequency of the ionosphere F region (foF2) above the Wakkanai ground-based ionosphere vertical sounding station, which was located in the preparation zone of this earthquake, suffered a long-term disturbance of slightly more than an hour nearly half a day before the earthquake. The magnitude of earthquake-induced disturbance is comparable to that caused by a magnetic storm.     

Ionosphere Disturbances Preceding Earthquakes according to the Data of Ground Based Station of the Vertical Ionospheric Sounding Wakkanai

The paper analyzes the data of manual ionograms processing of hourly measurements of the critical frequency foF2 of the F2 ionospheric layer at the Wakkanai ionospheric vertical sounding station (Japan) in a geomagnetically quiet environment before a series of earthquakes with magnitude M > 6.0, for which the station entered the earthquake preparation zone, in order to detect possible Ionospheric Disturbances Preceding Earthquakes (IDPE), and to determine their quantitative characteristics. Detected IDPE, in the opinion of the authors, can be related to the processes of preparation of the corresponding earthquakes, i.e., to be Ionospheric Precursors of Earthquakes (IPE).     

Studying the spread <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> effect before earthquakes

The observations of spread F during the nighttime hours (0000–0500 LT) have been statistically analyzed based on data of Tokyo, Akita, Wakkanai, and Yamagawa Japan vertical ionospheric sounding stations for the time intervals a month before and a month after an earthquake. The disturbances in the probability of spread F appearance before an earthquake are revealed against a background of the variations depending on season, solar activity cycle, geomagnetic and solar disturbances. The days with increased solar (Wolf number W > 100) and geomagnetic (ΣK > 30) activity are excluded from the analysis. The spread F effects are considered for more than a hundred earthquakes with magnitude M > 5 and epicenter depth h < 80 km at distances of R < 1000 km from epicenters to the vertical sounding station. An average decrease in the spread F occurrence probability one-two weeks before an earthquake has been revealed using the superposed epoch method (the probability was minimal approximately ten days before the event and then increased until the earthquake onset). Similar results are obtained for all four stations. The reliability of the effect has been estimated. The dependence of the detected effect on the magnitude and distance has been studied.     

Comparison of variations in the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 layer critical frequency before the strong Italian earthquakes and during the magnetic storm: Data of the stations for ground-based vertical sounding of the ionosphere

The possible seismic ionospheric effects before two strong earthquakes in Italy, which took place near Rome station (January 7, 1962, M = 6.0; April 5, 1998, M = 5.3), have been studied using the data of several European stations for ground-based vertical sounding of the ionosphere. An analysis of the behavior of the foF2 critical frequencies for the earthquake that occurred on January 7, 1962, made it possible to simultaneously consider the effects, originating during earthquake preparation under quiet geomagnetic conditions and caused by the magnetic strom that began on January 10, 1962, using a unified technique. It has been indicated that the distinguished precursor effects of two considered earthquakes with magnitudes not more than 6.0 are localized in the region with an epicentral distance of about 400 km, whereas the disturbances caused by the magnetic storm are of a planetary character. The amplitude of foF2 seismic ionospheric disturbances is much smaller than the maximal variations caused by the magnetic storm; however, the absolute value of this amplitude is a factor of 1.5 as large as the standard deivation from the monthly median.     

Propagation of internal gravity waves to the altitudes of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">D</Emphasis> and dynamo regions in the seismic region (Kamchatka): Preliminary results

A spectral analysis of simultaneous diurnal variations in the E _z component of the quasi-static electric field in the near-Earth atmosphere, VLF radio noise, and the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field, observed at Kamchatka in September 1999, has been performed. These geophysical parameters are indirectly used to study wave processes in the near-Earth atmosphere and in the ionospheric D and dynamo regions within the band of periods of internal gravity waves (T = 0.5?3.5 h). The correlation method in the frequency region is used to analyze the interrelation between the wave processes in these atmospheric regions. The power cross-spectra of various pairs of geophysical parameters have been studied depending on meteorological, seismic, and geomagnetic activities. It is shown that the oscillations in the power spectra in the T ～ 1–1.5 h band of periods are caused by the sources of internal gravity waves in the near-Earth atmosphere and by the remote sources above the dynamo region of the ionosphere within the T ～ 1.5–3 h band of periods.     

Spontaneous substorms and ordered type of magnetospheric disturbances during the superstorm of November 20, 2003

The interval 0000-1400 UT of the superstorm of November 20, 2003, has been studies based on the ACE/WIND data and the MIT2 magnetogram inversion technique. The distributions of the electric potential and currents, field-aligned currents, and Joule heat in the ionosphere have been calculated. The variable magnetotail length and powers coming into the magnetosphere, ionosphere and ring current have been estimated. The selected superstorm intervals, when it became possible to identify the disturbance mode produced by the interaction between the variable solar wind dynamic pressure and IMF effects, have been described. Spontaneous substorms, two types of driven responses to changes in IMF or in the solar wind dynamic pressure (P _d ), zero events at simultaneous jumps of IMF and P _d , and a previously unknown mode of saturation of the ionospheric electric field at a redistribution of the energy coming into the magnetosphere between the ionosphere and ring current are among the selected modes.     

Characteristics of Seismoelectric Wave Fields Associated with Natural Microcracks

Properties of seismoelectric waves in relation to natural earthquakes have been investigated. The electromagnetic disturbances were analyzed to test the hypothesis that pulse-like electric variations are directly related to microcracks as source. Because variation is very difficult to detect, there have been few quantitative field investigations. We used selected events with clear S and P phases from the data catalog obtained before the Tohoku earthquake in 2011. The electric strength of the fast P wave (P_f), S wave (S), and electromagnetic wave (EM) associated with formation of cracks of tensile mode were estimated. The co-seismic electric signal accompanied by the S wave has the largest strength, well above the noise level, and the EM wave has the lowest strength. Analytical estimation of the ratio of the strengths of the P_f and EM phases to that of the S phase by use of Pride’s equations gave results partially in agreement with observation (the order was Ap_f > A_s > A_em). The strength of the observed electromagnetic mode is approximately two orders of magnitude larger than that estimated from the theory. We suggest this greater strength can be attributed to the converted modes at layer contracts or to the effect of the boundary between free atmosphere and crust. Overall agreement between observations and theoretical estimates suggests that electromagnetic anomalies, crustal deformation, and groundwater changes can be investigated on the basis of the unified equations for the coupled electromagnetics, acoustics, and hydrodynamics of porous media.     

Reaction of the high-latitude lower ionosphere to solar proton events from observations in the ELF range

The reaction of the lower ionosphere to the solar proton events that occurred in 2011–2012 is studied in this paper based on the results of measurements of the propagation velocity and the E _z /H _τ ratio of the low-frequency electromagnetic pulses (atmospherics) in the ELF range at the high-latitude observatories Lovozero and Barentsburg. With numerical modeling methods, it is shown that horizontal local irregularities of the lower ionosphere conductivity profile could be a cause of the splashes in the E _z /H _τ ratio observed in the experiment during the solar proton event of March 7, 2012, which was a unique event in both the proton flux value and energy.     

Spatial and time variations in critical frequencies of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> region above the zone of equatorial earthquake preparation

Spatial and time variations in the critical frequencies foF2 before the strong earthquake of August 15, 1963, with the magnitude M = 7.75 are analyzed. The epicenter of the earthquake was located in the vicinity of the magnetic equator in the American longitudinal sector. The data of the topside ionosonde on board Alouette-1 and of the series of ground-based ionosondes has been used for this purpose. The ground-based ionosondes made it possible to detect an insignificant anomalous decrease in foF2 within the zone of earthquake preparation a few days prior to the earthquake. This result confirms the conclusion drawn earlier on the basis of the satellite data. The modification of the ionosphere at the F-region level is more evident in the satellite than in the ground-based data. It is also noted that the character of the time variations in foF2 a day before the earthquake is similar to the so called “quiet time” Q-disturbances in the ionosphere, when the electron concentration at the F region maximum differs from the median values by more than 20% under undisturbed geophysical conditions.     

Earthquake precursory signatures in electromagnetic radiation measurements in terms of day-to-day fractal spectral exponent variation: analysis of the eastern Aegean 13/04/2017–20/07/2017 seismic activity

The recent seismic activity in the eastern Aegean Sea, foregrounded by two major (M_L?=?6.1 and M_L?=?6.2) earthquakes occurring near Lesvos and Kos islands, respectively, is investigated in this work. Electromagnetic radiation measurements across different frequency bands and antenna orientations from a monitoring station in Agia Paraskevi, Lesvos Island, are analysed in order to reveal earthquake precursory signatures hidden in the electromagnetic data sequence. A straightforward, data-driven approach is employed in which day-to-day variations of the fractal characteristics of the measurements are adaptively monitored via a fractal spectral exponent similarity measure. The evolution of the fractal day-to-day variation in a 99-day period, which includes the two major earthquakes, shows a sustained, sudden increase lasting 1 to 4 days before every earthquake cluster of M_L?=?4.0 and above. Most importantly, this day-to-day variation subsides shortly after and remains relatively low during the absence of earthquakes, thus alleviating the emergence of false alarms.     

Comparison of ionospheric parameters calculated with UAM and measured at Voeykovo observatory

The measurements of the critical frequencies of the ionospheric F2 layer based on vertical radiosounding, which was performed with a CADI digital ionosonde at the Voeykovo magnetic–ionospheric observatory in February 2013, have been considered. The observations have been compared with the upper atmosphere numerical model (UAM) data for three days that differ in the amplitude and the character of solar and magnetic activity and correspond to quiet and moderately disturbed states of the ionosphere. The work was performed in order to improve the methods for determining the ionospheric state by vertical sounding ionograms. The time variations in the F2 layer critical frequency, electric field vector zonal component, and thermospheric wind velocity meridional component have been analyzed. Calculations were performed with three UAM variants. The UAM version providing the best agreement with the CADI ionosonde data was the version in which the neutral temperature, neutral composition, and pressure gradients are calculated according to the MSIS empirical model and the horizontal neutral wind velocity is determined by the equation of motion with pressure gradients from MSIS. The calculated values corresponded to the measurements, except those for the evening, because the electron density at the ionospheric F2 layer maximum depends more strongly on electric fields and thermospheric wind velocities during this period. Thus, the indicated UAM version with the above limitations can be used to determine the state of the subauroral ionosphere.     

Properties of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2-layer critical frequency median in the nocturnal subauroral ionosphere during low and moderate solar activity

Based on an analysis of data from the European ionospheric stations at subauroral latitudes, it has been found that the main ionospheric trough (MIT) is not characteristic for the monthly median of the F2-layer critical frequency (foF2), at least for low and moderate solar activity. In order to explain this effect, the properties of foF2 in the nocturnal subauroral ionosphere have been additionally studied for low geomagnetic activity, when the MIT localization is known quite reliably. It has been found that at low and moderate solar activity during night hours in winter, the foF2 data from ionospheric stations are often absent in the MIT area. For this reason, a model of the foF2 monthly median, which was constructed from the remaining data of these stations, contains no MIT or a very weakly pronounced MIT.     

Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

A great earthquake of M _S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M _S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.     

A study of Guptkashi,Uttarakhand earthquake of 6 February 2017 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript>5.3) in the Himalayan arc and implications for ground motion estimation

The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake’s location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H?=?19 km), the seismic moment (M₀?=?1.12×10¹⁷ Nm, M _w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ?=?280°, δ?=?14°, λ?=?84°), the source radius (a?=?1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ _s ~22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω^?2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f)?=?500f^0.9, κ?=?0.04 s, and f_max?=?infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ?=?70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤?200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6?≤?M _w ?≤?6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.     

Ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">N</Emphasis><Subscript>e</Subscript> disturbances before 2007 Pu’er,Yunnan, China,earthquake

Selecting three half orbits near the epicenter of Pu’er earthquake, we analyzed the N_e data recorded in their revisited orbits during a year before this earthquake, and extracted N_e precursors. The results show that: ① There are significant seasonal variations of ionospheric N_e in night time, which exhibit different shapes respectively in four seasons; ② There are three main shapes of N_e: single-peak, saddle-shaped and even-shaped, all of which may occur in four seasons, but each season with its typical shape relatively; ③ Spatial images of N_e showed high values near the epicenter in 30 days before the earthquake, and there is a good correlation between anomaly and distribution of earthquake in space and time, which reflects that these spatial anomalies were indeed concerned with the earthquake; ④ There shows a certain similarity of the N_e curves among revisited orbits, which can provide background information for distinguishing and identification of seismic anomaly.     

Activation of seismicity in Central and South Asia after the Makran earthquakes: Possible acceleration of preparation of large seismic events in the Tien Shan region

Two zones of seismicity (ten events with M _w = 7.0–7.7) stretching from Makran and the Eastern Himalaya to the Central and EasternTien Shan, respectively, formed over 11 years after the great Makran earthquake of 1945 (M _w = 8.1). Two large earthquakes (M _w = 7.7) hit theMakran area in 2013. In addition, two zones of seismicity (M ≥ 5.0) occurred 1–2 years after theMakran earthquake in September 24, 2013, stretching in the north-northeastern and north-northwestern directions. Two large Nepal earthquakes struck the southern extremity of the “eastern” zone (April 25, 2015, M _w = 7.8 and May 12, 2015, M _w = 7.3), and the Pamir earthquake (December 7, 2015, M _w = 7.2) occurred near Sarez Lake eastw of the “western” zone. The available data indicate an increase in subhorizontal stresses in the region under study, which should accelerate the possible preparation of a series of large earthquakes, primarily in the area of the Central Tien Shan, between 70° and 79° E, where no large earthquakes (M _w ≥ 7.0) have occurred since 1992.