2011年春季东海赤潮高发区尿素分布特征及影响因素

2011年春季(3-5月)在东海赤潮高发区硅藻和甲藻赤潮暴发及演替过程中进行了3个航次的现场调查,通过对调查资料的分析,对该海域尿素的含量变化、平面分布特征及影响因素进行了初步探讨。结果表明:调查海域尿素的含量在检出限~6.32μmol/L范围内,平均浓度为(1.33±0.84)μmol/L,是该海域一种重要的溶解有机氮组分。其中,在DIN中所占比例8.73%~18.04%,在DON中所占比例5.63%~15.73%。赤潮的暴发对尿素含量和分布影响较大,能够影响并控制该海区尿素的实际浓度水平和分布特征。其中,硅藻赤潮暴发前后尿素和DIN含量下降百分比分别为36.67%和49.88%,甲藻赤潮暴发前后尿素和DIN含量下降百分比分别为8.78%和28.97%。硅藻赤潮期,尿素的高值区和叶绿素高值区一致,其含量明显高于正常海区;甲藻赤潮期,叶绿素的高值区对应着尿素低值区,赤潮区内尿素含量普遍降低至1μmol/L以下,尿素是一种能够被研究海区甲藻类浮游植物吸收利用的有效氮源。在调查海域大规模硅藻和甲藻赤潮暴发和演替期间,尿素的平面分布上未呈现明显的近岸低、远岸高的分布特点,与盐度数值没有明显的相关性,该时期陆源输入不是影响该海域尿素分布的主要因素。     

长江口无机氮和活性磷酸盐水质基准研究

河口营养物基准是河口营养状态参数对生态环境不产生不良或有害影响的最大阈值。本文首先基于2015—2018年长江口环境现场调查数据开展河口内部分区,再通过主成分分析、相关性分析和线性回归分析等方法,筛选长江口营养物基准关键指标,之后采用频数分布法和压力-响应模型法得出基准推荐值,最后将赤潮优势藻培养实验得到的生态响应值作为参考。结果表明:根据盐度分布与地形特征,长江口可分为口门区和口外区两个生态区。可溶性无机氮(dissolved inorganic nitrogen,DIN)和可溶性活性磷酸盐(soluble reactive phosphorus,SRP)是制定长江口营养物基准的关键指标。口门区DIN和SRP的基准推荐值分别为0.614和0.029mg/L,口外区基准推荐值分别为0.295和0.008 mg/L。该结果有望为长江口富营养化评估和营养物标准制定等环境管理工作提供科学依据。     

南海大鹏湾海洋褐胞藻赤潮及其成因

于１９９１年３月２０－２１日在大鹏湾首次发生海洋褐胞藻赤潮。对此分析了赤潮发生前后海洋环境因素的变化及其与赤潮的关系；以风速，气压，盐度，温度，磷酸盐，硝酸盐，铵盐，铁离子等８项指标为基础，改变参数组合，对采自１９９１年３－５月特定站位（Ｓｏ）的各样方进行聚类分析和比较。结果表明，在盐度为３１－３２和水温为２０℃的适宜条件下，铁离子和风速是形成本次赤潮的主要环境要素；大量营养盐尤其是硝酸盐度的增加     

海洋在线监测浮标在赤潮监测中的应用研究

利用布设在广西区钦州湾的GX11、GX13两套实时在线监测浮标, 研究钦州湾2016年5月发生的红色赤潮藻(Akashiwo sanguinea)赤潮前后实时监测数据的变化情况。结果表明赤潮的暴发与消退受水文气象因素影响, 当寒流过后, 出现风速降低、气温迅速回升, 尤其是气温呈现昼夜温差小的天气状况时, 应重点监控实时在线浮标监测数据的变化。赤潮过程中pH、溶解氧浓度、叶绿素浓度存在明显的昼夜变化规律并高于正常范围, 三种环境要素具有显著的正相关; 当实时在线浮标监测中发现pH、溶解氧浓度、叶绿素浓度呈现较明显联动的强烈波动, 并且数值相对正常范围迅速升高时, 可进行赤潮预警及布置现场调查; pH、溶解氧浓度、叶绿素浓度的实时在线监测可作为预警环境要素, 为赤潮预警提供科学参考。     

我国东海藻华新记录种多环旋沟藻赤潮事件分析

由多环旋沟藻（Cochlodium polykrikoides）引发的有害赤潮在全球频繁暴发,2010年8月间,在我国浙江温岭石塘海域也暴发了此种的赤潮,而该藻则是东海藻华的新记录种。多环旋沟藻赤潮发生于富营养化的近岸水体,赤潮发生区内水温变化范围为27.5℃～31.2℃,盐度变化范围为31.957～32.998。赤潮暴发期间藻细胞最高密度达2.8×106个/L。文章探讨了此次赤潮暴发的原因及防治对策。     

几种环境因子对皱纹盘鲍的胁迫作用及其阈值

针对福建等海域养殖皱纹盘鲍度夏死亡率高的现象,试验研究了不同盐度、温度和溶解氧条件,对皱纹盘鲍幼鲍和1龄鲍死亡率的影响,并根据试验结果设定了皱纹盘鲍海上养殖盐度、温度和溶解氧预警阈值。结果表明:低盐胁迫对皱纹盘鲍的死亡率影响显著,在水温24～27℃时,盐度20是幼鲍和1龄鲍试验组和对照组死亡率有显著差异的临界点,盐度预警阈值为22;高温胁迫对皱纹盘鲍的死亡率影响显著,温度28℃是幼鲍和1龄鲍试验组和对照组死亡率有显著差异的临界点,温度预警阈值为27℃;皱纹盘鲍有较强的耐低氧能力,在水温26℃,盐度为30,溶解氧低于2.0mg/L时,开始大量死亡,溶解氧预警阈值为3.5mg/L;高温胁迫和低盐胁迫对皱纹盘鲍的死亡率有显著的交互作用,温度升高,低盐耐受能力下降。     

深圳海域红色赤潮藻赤潮在线监测数据变化及其成因分析

对2016年深圳大鹏湾海域红色赤潮藻(Akashiwo sanguinea)赤潮过程的浮标数据进行分析,赤潮期间叶绿素a最高达到123.0μg/L,DO和pH在赤潮期间显著升高,最高值分别达到19.78 mg/L和8.78;赤潮期间水温相对较低,变化范围为14.48~20.34℃。本次赤潮始发于盐田至大梅沙附近海域,并随潮流扩散至其他海域,前期水温升高对赤潮起到了促进作用,2016年2月营养盐(特别是氨氮)突然升高是本次赤潮的直接诱因。结合广东省近10年的赤潮发生情况,发现红色赤潮藻近几年已成为深圳及广东省海域的赤潮优势种。     

广东沿海赤潮与海洋水文气象关系研究

根据广东沿海发生赤潮的实测资料,重点分析了1997年10月至1998年5月广东沿海赤潮发生与海洋水文气象的关系.结果表明：棕襄藻（Phaecystis cf globosa Scherffel）和三宅裸甲藻（Gynmodiniu mmikimoloi）最大增殖速率的发生条件为：海水温度（以下均是日平均值）21.9℃～26.9℃.盐度26.68～32.01,气温22.9℃～27.1℃、风速0.2-4.3m/s、气压1 002.2～1 011.9hPa、相对湿度83%～94%.认为1997-1998年赤道太平洋上层海洋水温异常变化,导致1998年中国东南沿海水温和气温偏高,风速偏弱,盐度偏低,相对湿度偏高,气压偏低,容易发生赤潮;而降水量多少对1998年广东沿岸海域赤潮形成和发展也有重要影响.发现春夏季当海平气压和盐度出现下降趋势,气温、水温和相对湿度呈上升趋势,风速呈减弱趋势时容易发生赤潮,赤潮发生海域主要位于500 hPa图上的副高北沿,赤潮发生海域均位于槽前.在850hPa图上,华南地区则出现较强的切变线环流.地面天气图上,赤潮发生时在南岭附近有锋面系统存在,海面风速较弱,风向偏东.     

大鹏湾两次溶解氧骤降事件对比与分析

对深圳大鹏湾8月16~17日和9月13~15日两次溶解氧骤降事件过程中的相关参数,包括溶解氧、pH、叶绿素a、水温、盐度、风速等的浮标数据进行了分析,发现随着溶解氧的降低,两次事件均出现水温降低和盐度升高的现象。8月的事件中,由于受台风"启德"影响风速最高达到20 m/s以上,9月的事件中风速并无显著增加。通过对数据的分析,发现8月份事件的主要原因是台风导致的大风将海水沉积物带到表层,沉积物中的有机物快速消耗表层的溶解氧,致使溶解氧骤降至1 mg/L左右;9月份事件的原因尚不明确,可能是由于受到外海水团的影响。     

基于支持向量机分类的海州湾赤潮判别

近年来,海州湾赤潮暴发日益频繁,对当地经济发展和生态安全构成严重威胁.本文以海州湾2004～2006年每年5～10月赤潮实测资料和同期的水文气象资料为研究对象,首先通过因子分析的方法降低模型的维数,在17种与赤潮生消过程有密切联系的环境要素的基础上提取出营养盐、温度、耗氧量和pH值、水动力、降水等共计7个特征因子.然后对因子分析的结果结合赤潮状况利用支持向量机建立赤潮状况判别模型,采用径向基函数(RBF)作为核函数,并通过选择合适的模型参数组合,取得了90%以上的平均判别正确率,可以为沿海生产和管理部门发布赤潮预警信息提供依据.     

辽河口湿地生态景观格局形成机制分析

利用2007年景观格局图、DEM数据、人口、GDP等数据,运用地理信息系统(GIS)和Logistic回归分析模型相结合的分析方法,揭示辽河口湿地景观格局形成机制。结果表明:建筑用地、芦苇地、水稻田和养殖区的Logistic回归模型具有较好的拟合优度。模拟结果表明,转为建筑用地的Logistic回归模型的重要的解释变量是农村人口密度和城镇人口密度;转为芦苇地的Logistic回归模型的重要的解释变量是农村人口密度和过境水资源量;转为水稻田和养殖区的Logis-tic回归模型的重要的解释变量都是农村人口密度和第一产业值。在这4种生态景观格局的二元Logistic回归模型中最重要的解释变量都是农村人口密度,这表明辽河口湿地景观格局形成最主要的驱动因素是农村人口密度。     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models： An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p<0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p<0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all >0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models: An Empirical Validation of ISWRidge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p＜0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions 1, 2 and 3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p＜0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all ＞0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models:An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p＜0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions 1, 2 and 3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p＜0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all ＞0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers''D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

Probability distributions for wave runup on beaches

Measured probability distributions of shoreline elevation, swash height (shoreline excursion length) and swash maxima and minima from a wide range of beach types are compared to theoretical probability distributions. The theoretical distributions are based on assumptions that the time series are weakly steady-state, ergodic and a linear sum of random variables. Despite the swash process being inherently non-linear, results indicate that these assumptions are not overly restrictive with respect to modeling exceedence statistics in the upper tail of the probability distribution. The RMS-errors for a range of exceedence level statistics (50, 10, 5, 2, and 1%) were restricted to < 10 cm (and often < 5 cm) for all of the swash variables that were investigated. The results presented here provide the basis for further refinement of coastal inundation modeling as well as stochastic-type morphodynamic modeling of beach response to waves. Further work is required, however, to relate the parameters of swash probability distributions to wave conditions further offshore.     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models: An Empirical Validation of ISWRidge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p 〈0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to cheek the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height （X1 ） and potential energy （X2 ） significantly impact （p 〈 0. 0001 ） the amplitude-based refleeted rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all 〉 0.05 （0.2839, 0.3438, respectively）. That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height （ X1 ） and potential energy （X2） can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model. Investigation of 6 predictive powers （ R2, Max-rescaled R^2, Sorners＇ D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively） indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

基于表层温盐传感器的标定分析

感应式温盐传感器基于电导率法测盐,可以实现现场测量与实时测量。测量盐度时需要首先计算海水温度、海水电导率和海水压力,表层感应式温盐传感器对压力量不予考虑,温度、电导率的精度却直接关系到盐度测量结果的准确度,因此使用传感器前必须进行温度和盐度的标定。分析了温盐传感器的工作原理,设计温度、电导率的标定校准步骤,包括回归曲线的选择和回归方程系数的计算,其中温度、电导率和温度补偿的标定回归曲线采用多项式形式,用实验室高精度盐度计和铂电阻温度仪测得5~7组数据,然后对多项式最小二乘法回归,电导率回归过程中由温度和盐度求电导率用到了二分法,最后论述了标定回归方程的误差范围。     

Accuracy Evaluation of A Diagnostic Test by Detecting Outliers and Influential Observations

Logit regression analysis is widely applied in scientific studies and laboratory experiments, where skewed observations on a data set are often encountered. A number of problems with this method, for example, oudiers and influential observations, can cause overdispersion when a model is fitted. In this study a systematic statistical approach, including the plotting of several indices is used to diagnose the lack-of-fit of a logistic regression model. The outliers and influential observations on data from laboratory experiments are then detected. Specifically we take account of the interaction of an internal sohtary wave （ISW） with an obstacle, i.e., an underwater ridge, and also analyze the effects of the ridge height, the lower layer water depth, and the potential energy on the amplitude-based transmission rate of the ISW. As concluded, the goodness-of-fit of the revised logit regression model is better than that of the model without this approach.     

Econometric analysis on the effect of port state control inspections on the probability of casualty: Can targeting of substandard ships for inspections be improved?

This article is based on 183,819 port state control inspections from various port state control regimes and casualties from three different data sources for a time period of 6 years. It is the first time an analysis on a combined dataset of this magnitude has been performed. Binary logistic regression is used to measure the effect of inspections on the probability of casualty, which can be measured for very serious casualties but not for serious or less serious casualties. In addition, the magnitude of improvement areas for targeting substandard vessels is determined and the models further show how targeting of substandard ships on a combined dataset can be improved. In addition, the analysis also compares the fishing fleet with the commercial fleet.     

大治河河口无齿螳臂相手蟹生长和成熟的研究

无齿螳臂相手蟹是长江口潮间带和潮上带的优势种之一,具有重要的生态功能。为探求无齿螳臂相手蟹不同阶段的异速生长和成熟状况,于2009年10月至2010年9月期间采集样本,通过聚类和分段线性回归等分析方法对雌雄蟹头胸甲、螯、腹部等形态数据进行分析,建立区别不同生长阶段的判别函数并用逻辑斯蒂回归估计其50%形态成熟点。结果如下:雌雄蟹50%形态成熟点分别为头胸甲宽18.22mm和16.36mm。雄蟹的螯宽和雌蟹的腹宽均表现出明显的异速生长;根据相对生长率的不同,雄蟹异速生长可分为三个阶段,雌蟹分为2个阶段;不成熟的雄蟹异速生长拐点发生在壳宽11.78mm,不成熟和成熟雌蟹腹部在壳宽13.04～18.64mm范围内重叠。同时研究了50%的生理成熟大小,雌雄成熟大小分别为17.50mm,17.20mm。雄性形态成熟大小小于生理成熟大小,而雌性则相反。