2001年闽台地区地震活动综述

据福建数字遥测地震台网测定 ,2 0 0 1年 1月 1日至 1 2月 3 1日福建及其近海地区共发生ＭＬ≥ 2 0级地震 82次 ,其中 2 0～ 2 9级地震 71次 ,3 0～ 3 9级地震 1 0次 ,最大地震为 8月 6日漳浦海外 4 2级 ;台湾海峡地区发生ＭＬ≥ 3 0级地震 4次 ,最大地震为 1 0月 1 3日海峡南部 4 2级 ;台湾地区共发生ＭＳ≥ 5 0级地震 1 3次 ,最大地震为 6月 1 4日苏澳以东海中的 6 1级。对比 1 991年以来闽台地区年度地震活动水平 ,今年各区地震活动在去年较为平静的基础上 ,继续呈现减弱态势。 1 999年 9月 2 1日台湾南投 7 6级强震群活动前后 ,福…     

汰内井水氡年变异常与台湾地区强震的关系

通过对汰内井水氡多年年变动态的分析,发现台湾地区强震前后汰内井水氡测值表现出持续高值的异常,这些异常多为中期与中短期异常,有时也有短临异常和震后效应。研究结果表明,汰内井水氡对台湾地区的强震有一定的映震能力,可为台湾地区的强震预测服务。     

2000年福建及台湾地区地震活动综述

一、地震活动概况 东甫沿海地震带目前处于二十世纪以来第Ｖ个地震活跃幕的后期阶段，地震活动水平呈逐步减弱态势，并向平静期过渡。但受１９９９年９月ＺＩ日台湾南投７．６级强震群活动区域应力场调整的影响，１９９９年下半年开始福建及沿海地区地震活动有所增强，相继发生了８月５日惠安海外４．８级地震，福州３．８级震群和水口库区３．２级地震，并于２０００年５月２７日在漳浦海外发生４．６级地震，这也是本年度福建及沿海地区发生的最大一次地震。 二、地震频度和强度 据福建数字遥测地震台网测定，２０００年福建及沿海地区共…     

1995～1996年云南孟连西、武定、丽江三次强震前的地震活动背景性异常

分析了１９９５～１９９６年发生的云南孟连西７５级、武定以北６５级和丽江以北７０级三次强震前云南及邻近地区出现的地震活动背景性异常,包括地震空区、条带、小震群活动、地震窗口、诱发地震、强震原地复发以及迁移等特征。对地震活动期的分析表明,１９８８年澜沧－耿马地震后云南地区处于强震活动高潮期,１９９３年区内发生５０～６３级地震７次,达到发生７级以上强震的预报指标。这些地震活动背景异常为这３次强震的趋势预报提供了科学依据。     

1997年伽师地震临震预报的经验与启示

１９９７年１～４月新疆伽师发生罕见的强震群活动。几个月内在十分狭小的区域内发生７次６级强震，是新疆几十年来从未遇到过的。概述了伽师地震３次准确和较为准确的临震预报；总结了地点已知的后续强震临震预报的科学和实践问题；论述了震例总结与现实预报的差异，以及地震孕育的复杂性和地震预报的现实做法。     

台湾地区近期7级以上大地震前的中强地震条带现象

本文分析了台湾地区近期 5 5级以上地震的时空图象 ,发现台湾地区从 93年开始5 5级以上地震逐渐形成一条中强地震共轭条带 ,其中主条带长仅 30 0公里左右。强震条带形成后 ,1 999年 9月 2 1日在主条带的西南段 1 /3处条带的西侧边缘南投发生了7 6级地震。南投地震后 ,5 5级以上地震条带仍然存在 ,2 0 0 2年 3月 31日在共轭条带交汇处附近苏沃海外发生了 7 5级地震。在共轭条带内相隔两年半时间里发生两次 7级以上地震实属罕见     

2022年泸定Ms6.8级地震发震构造与鲜水河断裂带强震迁移规律

2022年9月5日12时52分在四川甘孜州泸定县发生Ms6.8级地震,震源深度16 km。这是继2014年康定地震后,发生在鲜水河断裂带上的又一次强震。笔者等通过已有文献资料,结合鲜水河断裂带南段野外地质调查,统计了滑动速率及历史地震资料,并总结了近代鲜水河断裂带强震迁移规律,对认识鲜水河断裂带活动特征及未来地震危险性具有重要意义。主要得出以下几点认识：①鲜水河断裂带各段滑动速率差异较大,以乾宁为界,从NW至SE段整体上呈现出“先减速后加速”的滑动特点;②泸定地震发震构造磨西断裂,为一次左旋走滑事件;③川滇地区近代历史强震活跃期具有“跳跃性”迁移的特点。自1981年道孚地震后,鲜水河断裂带断进入相对平静期,持续了33 a。自2014年康定地震发生,鲜水河断裂带再次进入地震活跃期;④鲜水河断裂带的强震破裂并非单次地震的“贯通型”模式,而是多次地震的渐进式。断层间相互作用尤其是大地震的发生对断裂带强震复发间隔具有重大影响,相同断裂带的强震也会对后续地震的发生概率产生变化。     

地震之争—写在“5·12”汶川特大地震一周年之际

“5·12”汶川特大地震过去一年了,然而关于地震的争议远没有停止。中国是否进入强震频发期？地震预报为什么这么难？水库是否诱发了地震……地震带来的一系列问题让地质专家不断研究和思索。1争论一：中国乃至全球是否进入强震频发期 有学者认为,2004年12月26日印尼苏门答腊发生的9级强震拉开了2004-2018的全球强震序幕。     

山东玲珑金矿煌斑岩橄榄石捕掳晶的发现及找矿意义

胶东玲珑金矿田的东山矿区-620~-670m标高和西山矿区-50m标高均发现与金矿脉时空关系密切的煌斑岩脉中存在具有深源特征的地幔橄榄岩解体矿物——橄榄石捕掳晶,且广泛发育蛇纹石和滑石蚀变,其中东山矿区以蛇纹石化为主,兼有少量滑石化,西山矿区以滑石化为主。蚀变热力学计算表明,东山橄榄石蚀变温度为282℃以上,西山橄榄石蚀变温度为243℃以下。流体包裹体的数据显示:东山和西山橄榄石蚀变的温度分别为282~300℃和200~243℃。上述研究为该区提供了新的找矿信息。     

甘东南及邻区7级以上强震数值模拟

对强震发生后周围断层及未来强震形势的影响研究具有非常重要的意义.青藏高原东北缘强震频发,对该区的历史强震进行研究很有必要.以青藏高原东北缘及邻区为目标建立3D黏弹性有限元模型,依据中国大陆Ⅰ级块体和青藏高原Ⅱ级块体划分及活动断裂分布确定模型块体边界及断裂位置,使用GPS观测资料作为模型边界条件,数值模拟1900年以来7级以上强震发生的动力学过程.计算结果表明:① 青藏高原东北缘及邻区区域水平构造应力场特征大致呈从西向东,从南向北减小分布.② 模拟结果说明强震主要发生在背景场应力和强震引起的等效应力加载的断层上.③ 历史强震序列对1970年以来地震的影响:康定地震加速触发了炉霍地震的发生;康定、炉霍地震对松潘地震无加速触发作用;康定、炉霍、松潘地震对共和地震无加速触发作用;炉霍、松潘、共和地震对汶川地震的影响较小;汶川地震延缓了芦山地震的发生.      

黑龙江省东北部桦南隆起的隆升时期

黑龙江省东北部三江、虎林、勃利、鸡西、双鸭山、双桦等盆地与桦南隆起的关系对本区油气资源的勘探开发有重要的意义。从区域地层对比、海相古生物化石、盆地边界断裂以及地球物理MT剖面等方面对其进行了探讨,揭示黑龙江省东北部盆地群具有相同的演化历史,在城子河、穆棱期由东向西共同遭受海侵事件,现今盆地南界均为破坏性逆冲断层,综合认为各盆地在城子河、穆棱期为一统一的大陆边缘近海盆地--三江-穆棱盆地,桦南隆起尚未隆升。结合猴石沟组的古水流向、砂岩的物源区分析及砾岩砾石成分统计认为,桦南隆起应于东山组沉积期后隆升,并在猴石沟组沉积期已隆升一定高度,为周缘盆地提供物源,形成现今黑龙江省东北部地区的“盆岭格局”。     

Development of new attenuation equation for subduction mechanisms in Malaysia water

The attenuation equation for far field earthquake is important because the earthquake occurring in neighboring countries can be felt in Malaysia. In this study, a new attenuation was generated using the regression method. It was developed to calculate the peak ground acceleration (PGA) onsite (offshore platform). The database consisting of more than 150 PGAs from 9 events of earthquakes recorded by the Seismology Station in Malaysia was used to develop the relationship. In addition, attenuation relationships for subduction mechanisms from previous researchers are then compared with the newly generated ones in this research. The new attenuation equation was also validated and used to calculate the acceleration for far field earthquake in a case study of offshore platform at a Terengganu seaside. The result of PGA from the new generated attenuation relationship was in a good match with previous attenuation equations.     

Tsunami simulation due to seaquake at Manila Trench and Sulu Trench

Seaquake is a phenomenon where there are water disturbance at the sea, caused by earthquake or submarine eruption. The scope of this study focuses on tsunami simulation due to Manila Trench and Sulu Trench seaquake which is prone to harm Malaysia offshore areas. Manila Trench is a highly potential earthquake source that can generate tsunami in South China Sea. Meanwhile, Sulu Trench could be a threat to east of Sabah offshore areas. In this study, TUNA-M2 model was utilized to perform tsunami simulation at South China Sea and Sulu Sea. TUNA-M2 model applied Okada source model to create tsunami generation due to earthquake. It utilized linear shallow water equation during tsunami propagation with its radiant boundary condition. Five simulations performed at each study region. Forecast points at South China Sea areas were divided into three separate locations which are at the Peninsular Malaysia, west of Sabah and Sarawak offshore areas. Forecast points at Sulu Sea were focused at the east of Sabah offshore areas. This paper will present the simulation results of tsunami wave height and arrival time at various forecast points. The findings of this study show that the range of tsunami wave height at Sulu Sea is higher than that of South China Sea. The tsunami arrival time at Sulu Sea is less than South China Sea. It can be concluded that Sulu Sea poses worse tsunami threat than South China Sea to the Malaysian offshore areas.     

High-angle reverse faulting associated with the 1946 Nankaido earthquake

Analysis of vertical crustal deformation data in the southwestern part of Shikoku, southwest Japan, suggests that the Nankaido earthquake of 1946 (M_w = 8.1), which is a principal interplate thrust earthquake, was accompanied by subsidiary faulting on a splay fault adjacent to the coast of Shikoku. Discarding crustal movement resulting from the main thrusting of the Nankaido earthquake, local leveling data are explained by slip on a simple rectangular thrust fault located just offshore of Shikoku. Although it is difficult to constrain the fault location, a possible result is a high-angle thrust dipping landward at an angle of about 70°, with a dislocation of about 1.5 m, and source dimensions of 30 × 13 km along strike and dip. respectively. This result indicates that the fault may be one of the steeply dipping subsidiary faults branching from the main low-angle thrust, as was the case in the Alaska earthquake of 1964. Although several lines of evidence suggest that this faulting occurred as slow aseismic slip, its discrimination from the main seismic event is extremely difficult. This kind of high-angle thrusting just offshore of the coast would play an important role for the formation of the marine terraces during the late Quaternary period.     

Influence of earthquakes on the stability of slopes

Earthquakes are a major trigger for instability of natural and man-made slopes. Often the instability of slopes due to an earthquake causes more destruction and kills more people than the actual earthquake itself. A comparison is made between different methodologies to analyze the potential stability of slopes during earthquakes. Theoretically, it seems simple to calculate the stability of a slope during an earthquake. In reality, however, the stability is influenced by so many parameters that are either not known or which influence is so poorly known that a decent estimation of stability cannot be made. Offshore the situation is worse because proper data required for stability calculations are even less available than onshore. On- and offshore, erosion and weathering create continuously slopes that may become unstable during a future earthquake, offshore also sedimentation creates continuously new slopes. Another fundamental problem in stability analysis is the complicated and largely unknown behavior of seismic waves in three-dimensions in natural materials. The lack of accurate data and the unknown behavior of seismic waves in three-dimensions make estimations of slope stability during an earthquake unreliable.     

台湾海峡西岸经过1604年大震考验的古迹和部分地震地质景观介绍

福建省地处台湾海峡西岸 ,1 60 4年泉州海外的 8级地震对它造成很大的破坏 ,也给我们留下了一批经过 8级大震考验的珍贵古建筑物 ,受到海内外专家的重视。作者经过实地考察 ,认真查阅历史资料 ,着重介绍了经过 1 60 4年大震考验的泉州古建筑物 ,并结合今天福建省防震减灾工作的实际情况 ,结合地质地貌 ,福建土楼等 ,较系统的展示了海峡西岸的地震地质景观。     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987110000356

We have analyzed the July 15,2009,Fiordland earthquake(M_w 7.8),which occurred in the southwestern part of the South Island of New Zealand.This thrust-related earthquake in the southern Fiordland subduction zone is the largest New Zealand earthquake in the past 80 years.We have constrained a rupture model for this earthquake using coseismic offsets derived from the continuous geodetic network(Global Positioning System) of the New Zealand Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences (GNS Science).Our anal...     

世界性科学难题——地震预报有可能首先在中国实现突破

采用多学科交叉的地震前兆观测方法 ,成功地做出了一些地震的临震预测及年度 (中期 )预测。可以预测几千km以外的 7级以上大地震。预测地震 3要素 (发震时间、震级及地点 )所达到的精度在地震史上也是罕见的。文中介绍了我们所用的主要地震前兆观测方法 :次声波、地应力、地电脉冲、大地微动、引潮力共振叠加等。文中还介绍了几次较好的临震预测及年度预测震例。从近几年的地震预测实践证明 ,对 7级以上大地震做出准确的预报是可能的。     

Earthquake risk assessment and optimal risk management strategies for Hi-Tech Fabs in Taiwan

In this paper, we build an event-based seismic hazard assessment and financial analysis model for Hi-Tech Fabs in Taiwan. As we know, the low occurrence rate, tremendous loss and high uncertainty are characteristics of earthquake disasters. To handle the above issues, the model integrates knowledge from many fields including earth science, seismology, geology, risk management, structural engineering, the insurance profession, financial engineering and facility management. The portfolio of data from the site survey indicates that the model can be used to calculate the event losses (including buildings, contents and business interruption losses); furthermore the average annual loss and loss exceeding probabilities also can be calculated. The total earthquake risk cost, which includes earthquake insurance premiums, average annual retained loss and equivalent annual retrofit cost, is defined as an indicator for selection of optimal risk management strategies.     

Hazard analysis of seismic submarine slope instability

To assess the risk associated with a submarine landslide, one must estimate the probability of slope failure and its consequences. This paper proposes a procedure to estimate the probability of earthquake-induced submarine slope failure (hazard) based on probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, ground response analyses and advanced laboratory tests. The outcomes from these analyses are treated in a probabilistic framework, with analytical simulations using mathematical techniques such as the first-order reliability method, Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian updating. Fragility curves of slope failure during the earthquake (co-seismic) and after the earthquake (post-seismic) were developed in this study, and were shown to provide a clear and well-organized procedure to estimate the annual failure probability of a submarine slope under earthquake loading.