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1.
Ice Sheets and Sea Level: Thinking Outside the Box   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Until quite recently, the mass balance (MB) of the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica was poorly known and often treated as a residual in the budget of oceanic mass and sea level change. Recent developments in regional climate modelling and remote sensing, especially altimetry, gravimetry and InSAR feature tracking, have enabled us to specifically resolve the ice sheet mass balance components at a near-annual timescale. The results reveal significant mass losses for both ice sheets, caused by the acceleration of marine-terminating glaciers in southeast, west and northwest Greenland and coastal West Antarctica, and increased run-off in Greenland. At the same time, the data show that interannual variability is very significant, masking the underlying trends.  相似文献   

2.
全球变暖背景下的冰盖消融以及由此带来海平面上升日益明显,直接影响地球表面的陆地水质量平衡,以及固体地球瞬间弹性响应,研究冰盖质量变化的海平面指纹能够帮助深入了解未来海平面区域变化的驱动因素.本文基于海平面变化方程并考虑负荷自吸效应(SAL)与地球极移反馈的影响,借助美国德克萨斯大学空间研究中心(Center for Space Research,CSR)发布的2003年到2012年十年期间的GRACE重力场月模型数据(RL05),结合加权高斯平滑的区域核函数,反演得到格陵兰与南极地区冰盖质量变化的时空分布,并利用海平面变化方程计算得到了相对海平面的空间变化,结果表明:格陵兰与南极冰盖质量整体呈明显的消融趋势,变化速率分别为-273.31 Gt/a及-155.56 Gt/a,由此导致整个北极圈相对海平面降低,最高可达约-0.6 cm·a-1;而南极地区冰盖质量变化趋势分布不一,导致西南极近海相对海平面下降,而东南极地区近海相对海平面上升,最高可达约0.2 cm·a-1.远离质量负荷区域的全球海平面以上升趋势为主,平均全球相对海平面上升0.71 mm·a-1,部分远海地区相对海平面上升更加突出(例如北美与澳大利亚),高出全球平均海平面上升速率将近30%.此外,本文也重点探讨了GRACE监测冰盖消融结果中由于极地近海海平面变化导致的泄漏影响,经此项影响校正后的结果表明:海平面指纹效应对GRACE监测格陵兰与南极地区2003-2012期间整体冰盖消融速率的贡献分别为约3%与9%,建议在后期利用GRACE更精确地估算研究区冰盖质量变化时,应考虑海平面指纹效应的渗透影响.  相似文献   

3.
We have used satellite solutions to the low degree zonal harmonics of the Earth's gravitational potential, and rates of surface accumulation to partially constrain, by means of repeated forward solution, the time rates of thickness change over the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets (dTA and dTG respectively). In addition to the observed zonal coefficients j2 through j5 we impose only one other constraint: That dTA and dTG are proportional to surface accumulation. The lagged response of the Earth to secular changes in ice thickness spanning recent time periods (up to 2000 years before present) and the late Pleistocene is accounted for by means of two viscoelastic rebound models. The sea level contributions from the ice sheets, calculated from dTA and dTG, lower mantle viscosity, and the start time of present-day thickness change are all variables subject to the constraints. For a given set of post glacial rebound inputs, a family of solutions that have similar characteristics and that agree well with observation are obtained from the large number of forward solutions. The off axis position of the Greenland ice sheet makes its contribution to the low degree zonal coefficients less sensitive to the spatial details of the mass balance than to the overall sea level contribution. dTG is therefore modeled as surface mass balance offset by a uniform and constant mass loss. Though dTA varies widely with choices of input parameters, the combined sea level contribution from both ice sheets is reasonably well constrained by the gravity coefficients, and is predicted to range from -0.9 to +1.6 mm yr-1. The sign of the slope of the low degree zonal coefficients versus sea level contribution for Greenland is positive, but for Antarctica, the sign of the slope is positive for even degree and negative for odd degree harmonics. By using this property of the zonal coefficients, it is possible to determine the individual sea level contributions for Greenland and Antarctica. They vary from -0.6 to +0.3 mm yr-1 for the Greenland Ice Sheet, and from -0.3 to +1.3 mm yr-1 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet.  相似文献   

4.
Thirteen years of GRACE data provide an excellent picture of the current mass changes of Greenland and Antarctica, with mass loss in the GRACE period 2002–2015 amounting to 265 ± 25 GT/year for Greenland (including peripheral ice caps), and 95 ± 50 GT/year for Antarctica, corresponding to 0.72 and 0.26 mm/year average global sea level change. A significant acceleration in mass loss rate is found, especially for Antarctica, while Greenland mass loss, after a corresponding acceleration period, and a record mass loss in the summer of 2012, has seen a slight decrease in short-term mass loss trend. The yearly mass balance estimates, based on point mass inversion methods, have relatively large errors, both due to uncertainties in the glacial isostatic adjustment processes, especially for Antarctica, leakage from unmodelled ocean mass changes, and (for Greenland) difficulties in separating mass signals from the Greenland ice sheet and the adjacent Canadian ice caps. The limited resolution of GRACE affects the uncertainty of total mass loss to a smaller degree; we illustrate the “real” sources of mass changes by including satellite altimetry elevation change results in a joint inversion with GRACE, showing that mass change occurs primarily associated with major outlet glaciers, as well as a narrow coastal band. For Antarctica, the primary changes are associated with the major outlet glaciers in West Antarctica (Pine Island and Thwaites Glacier systems), as well as on the Antarctic Peninsula, where major glacier accelerations have been observed after the 2002 collapse of the Larsen B Ice Shelf.  相似文献   

5.
Changes of mean annual net accumulation at the surface on the grounded ice sheets of East Antarctica, West Antarctica and Greenland in response to variations in sea ice extent are estimated using grid-point values 100 km apart. The data bases are assembled principally by bilinear interpolation of remotely sensed brightness temperature (Nimbus-5 ESMR, Nimbus-7 SMMR), surface temperature (Nimbus-7 THIR), and surface elevation (ERS-1 radar altimeter). These data, complemented by field data where remotely sensed data are not available, are used in multivariate analyses in which mean annual accumulation (derived from firn emissivity) is the dependent variable; the independent variables are latitude, surface elevation, mean annual surface temperature, and mean annual distance to open ocean (as a source of energy and moisture). The last is the shortest distance measured between a grid point and the mean annual position of the 10% sea ice concentration boundary, and is used as an index of changes in sea ice extent as well as of mean concentration. Stepwise correlation analyses indicate that variations in sea ice extent of ± 50 km would lead to changes in accumulation inversely of ± 4% on East Antarctica, ± 10% on West Antarctica, and ±4% on Greenland. These results are compared with those obtained in a previous study using visually interpolated values from contoured compilations of field data; they substantiate the findings for the Antarctic ice sheets (±4% on East Antarctica, ±9% in West Antarctica), and suggest a reduction by one half of the probable change of accumulation on Greenland (from ±8%). The results also suggest a reduction of the combined contribution to sea level variability to ±0.19 mm a-1 (from ±0.22 mm a-1).  相似文献   

6.
两极冰盖消融及其质量变化作为全球气候变化的重要指标之一,一直是联合国政府间专门气候委员会IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)报告的重点关注内容.GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment,2002年4月-2017年...  相似文献   

7.
The provision of accurate models of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) is presently a priority need in climate studies, largely due to the potential of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data to be used to determine accurate and continent-wide assessments of ice mass change and hydrology. However, modelled GIA is uncertain due to insufficient constraints on our knowledge of past glacial changes and to large simplifications in the underlying Earth models. Consequently, we show differences between models that exceed several mm/year in terms of surface displacement for the two major ice sheets: Greenland and Antarctica. Geodetic measurements of surface displacement offer the potential for new constraints to be made on GIA models, especially when they are used to improve structural features of the Earth’s interior as to allow for a more realistic reconstruction of the glaciation history. We present the distribution of presently available campaign and continuous geodetic measurements in Greenland and Antarctica and summarise surface velocities published to date, showing substantial disagreement between techniques and GIA models alike. We review the current state-of-the-art in ground-based geodesy (GPS, VLBI, DORIS, SLR) in determining accurate and precise surface velocities. In particular, we focus on known areas of need in GPS observation level models and the terrestrial reference frame in order to advance geodetic observation precision/accuracy toward 0.1 mm/year and therefore further constrain models of GIA and subsequent present-day ice mass change estimates.  相似文献   

8.
For Central Greenland, water isotope analysis indicates a temperature difference of about 10°C since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). However, borehole thermometry and gas diffusion thermometry indicate that LGM surface temperatures were about 20°C colder than today. Two general circulation model studies have shown that changes in the seasonal precipitation timing in Central Greenland might have caused a warm bias in the LGM water isotope proxy temperatures, and that this bias could explain the difference in the estimated paleotemperatures. Here we present an analysis of a number of atmospheric general circulation model simulations mostly done within the framework of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project. The models suggest that the seasonal cycle of precipitation and surface mass balance over Central Greenland at the LGM might have been very different from today. This supports the idea that the accuracy of the water isotope thermometry at the LGM in Greenland might be compromised as a result of a modified surface mass balance seasonality. However, the models disagree on the amplitude and sign of the bias. For Central East Antarctica, a strong seasonality effect on the LGM isotopic signal is not simulated by any of the analyzed models. For the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP) the models suggest relatively weak isotope paleothermometry biases linked to changes in the surface mass balance seasonality over both ice sheets.  相似文献   

9.
We investigate the transient response of the global coupled ocean?Catmosphere system to enhanced freshwater forcing representative of melting of the Greenland ice sheets. A 50-year long simulation by a coupled atmosphere?Cocean general circulation model (CGCM) is compared with another of the same length in which Greenland melting is prescribed. To highlight the importance of coupled atmosphere?Cocean processes, the CGCM results are compared with those of two other experiments carried out with the oceanic general circulation model (OGCM). In one of these OGCM experiments, the prescribed surface fluxes of heat, momentum and freshwater correspond to the unperturbed simulation by the CGCM; in the other experiment, Greenland melting is added to the freshwater flux. The responses by the CGCM and OGCM to the Greenland melting have similar patterns in the Atlantic, albeit the former having five times larger amplitudes in sea surface height anomalies. The CGCM shows likewise stronger variability in all state variables in all ocean basins because the impact of Greenland melting is quickly communicated to all ocean basins via atmospheric bridges. We conclude that the response of the global climate to Greenland ice melting is highly dependent on coupled atmosphere?Cocean processes. These lead to reduced latent heat flux into the atmosphere and an associated increase in net freshwater flux into the ocean, especially in the subpolar North Atlantic. The combined result is a stronger response of the coupled system to Greenland ice sheet melting.  相似文献   

10.
利用ICESat数据确定格陵兰冰盖高程和体积变化   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
两极冰盖消融是造成海平面上升的重要原因,作为世界第二大冰盖,格陵兰冰盖消融速度在进入21世纪以后明显加快,引起了广泛关注.本文利用ICESat卫星激光测高数据,探讨了坡度改正的方法,通过改进平差模型解决了病态问题,并采用重复轨道方法计算了2003年9月至2009年10月间格陵兰冰盖的体积和高程变化趋势,对格陵兰冰盖各冰川流域系统的变化情况进行了详细分析.结果表明,格陵兰冰盖在这6年间平均高程变化趋势为-16.79±0.84cm·a^-1,体积变化速率为-301.37±15.16km^3·a^-1,体积流失主要发生在冰盖边缘,其中DS1、DS8等流域的体积损失正在加剧,而高程在2000m以上的冰盖内陆地区表现出高程积聚的状态,但增长速度明显减缓.与现有研究成果的对比表明,算法优化后的本文结果更具可靠性.  相似文献   

11.
利用ICESat数据解算南极冰盖冰雪质量变化   总被引:5,自引:4,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
南极冰盖冰雪质量变化反映了全球气候变化,并且直接影响着全球海平面变化.ICESat测高卫星的主要任务之一就是要确定南北两极冰盖的质量变化情况并评估其对全球海平面变化的影响.本文利用2003年10月至2008年12月的ICESat测高数据,针对南极DEM分辨率有限的特殊性,通过求解坡度改正值,解决重复轨道地面脚点不重合的问题,计算了南极大陆(86°S以北区域,后文所述南极冰盖均不包括86°S以南区域)在这5年里的冰雪质量变化情况,得到东南极冰盖的质量变化为-18±20Gt/a,西南极-26±6Gt/a,南极冰盖的冰雪质量变化为-44±21Gt/a,对全球海平面上升的影响约为0.12mm·a~(-1).解算结果表明,南极冰盖质量亏损主要集中在西南极阿蒙森海岸附近冰川以及东南极波因塞特角区域.  相似文献   

12.
This paper summarizes results obtained for Greenland??s mass balance observed with NASA??s GRACE mission. We estimate a Greenland ice sheet mass loss at ?201 ± 19 Gt/year including a discernible acceleration of ?8 ± 7 Gt/year2 between March 2003 and February 2010. The mass loss of glacier systems on the South East of Greenland has slowed down while the mass loss increases toward the North along the West side of Greenland. The mass balance can be compared with results obtained by a regional climate model of the Greenland system and ice sheet altimeter data obtained from NASA??s ICEsat mission. Our GRACE-only results differ to within 15% from these independently calculated values; we will comment on the possible causes and the quality of the glacial isostatic adjustment model which is used to correct geodetic datasets.  相似文献   

13.
Glacier mass balance and secular changes in mountain glaciers and ice caps are evaluated from the annual net balance of 137 glaciers from 17 glacierized regions of the world. Further, the winter and summer balances for 35 glaciers in 11 glacierized regions are analyzed. The global means are calculated by weighting glacier and regional surface areas. The area-weighted global mean net balance for the period 1960?C2000 is ?270 ± 34 mm a?1 w.e. (water equivalent, in mm per year) or (?149 ± 19 km3 a?1 w.e.), with a winter balance of 890 ± 24 mm a?1 w.e. (490 ± 13 km3 a?1 w.e.) and a summer balance of ?1,175 ± 24 mm a?1 w.e. (?647 ± 13 km3 a?1 w.e.). The linear-fitted global net balance is accelerating at a rate of ?9 ± 2.1 mm a?2. The main driving force behind this change is the summer balance with an acceleration of ?10 ± 2.0 mm a?2. The decadal balance, however, shows significant fluctuations: summer melt reached its peak around 1945, followed by a decrease. The negative trend in the annual net balance is interrupted by a period of stagnation from 1960s to 1980s. Some regions experienced a period of positive net balance during this time, for example, Europe. The balance has become strongly negative since the early 1990s. These decadal fluctuations correspond to periods of global dimming (for smaller melt) and global brightening (for larger melt). The total radiation at the surface changed as a result of an imbalance between steadily increasing greenhouse gases and fluctuating aerosol emissions. The mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and the surrounding small glaciers, averaged for the period of 1950?C2000, is negative at ?74 ± 10 mm a?1 w.e. (?128 ± 18 km3 a?1 w.e.) with an accumulation of 297 ± 33 mm a?1 w.e. (519 ± 58 km3 a?1 w.e.), melt ablation ?169 ± 18 mm a?1 w.e. (?296 ± 31 km3 a?1 w.e.), calving ablation ?181 ± 19 mm a?1 w.e. (?316 ± 33 km3 a?1 w.e.) and the bottom melt-21 ± 2 mm a?1 w.e. (?35 ± 4 km3 a?1 w.e.). Almost half (?60 ± 3 km3 a?1) of the net mass loss comes from mountain glaciers and ice caps around the ice sheet. At present, it is difficult to detect any statistically significant trends for these components. The total mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet is considered to be too premature to evaluate. The estimated sea-level contributions in the twentieth Century are 5.7 ± 0.5 cm by mountain glaciers and ice caps outside Antarctica, 1.9 ± 0.5 cm by the Greenland ice sheet, and 2 cm by ocean thermal expansion. The difference of 7 cm between these components and the estimated value with tide-gage networks (17 cm) must result from other sources such as the mass balance of glaciers of Antarctica, especially small glaciers separated from the ice sheet.  相似文献   

14.
Calculations were performed with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM to study the response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sustained multi-millennial greenhouse warming. Use was made of fully dynamic 3D thermomechanical ice-sheet models bidirectionally coupled to an atmosphere and an ocean model. Two 3,000-year experiments were evaluated following forcing scenarios with atmospheric CO2 concentration increased to two and four times the pre-industrial value, and held constant thereafter. In the high concentration scenario the model shows a sustained mean annual warming of up to 10°C in both polar regions. This leads to an almost complete disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet after 3,000 years, almost entirely caused by increased surface melting. Significant volume loss of the Antarctic ice sheet takes many centuries to initiate due to the thermal inertia of the Southern Ocean but is equivalent to more than 4 m of global sea-level rise by the end of simulation period. By that time, surface conditions along the East Antarctic ice sheet margin take on characteristics of the present-day Greenland ice sheet. West Antarctic ice shelves have thinned considerably from subshelf melting and grounding lines have retreated over distances of several 100 km, especially for the Ross ice shelf. In the low concentration scenario, corresponding to a local warming of 3?C4°C, polar ice-sheet melting proceeds at a much lower rate. For the first 1,200 years, the Antarctic ice sheet is even slightly larger than today on account of increased accumulation rates but contributes positively to sea-level rise after that. The Greenland ice sheet loses mass at a rate equivalent to 35 cm of global sea level rise during the first 1,000 years increasing to 150 cm during the last 1,000 years. For both scenarios, ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet is still accelerating after 3,000 years despite a constant greenhouse gas forcing after the first 70?C140 years of the simulation.  相似文献   

15.
Through the use of fossil fuels as an energy source, mankind is slowly changing the constitution of the atmosphere. The emission of CO2 and other greenhouse gases changes the radiative properties of the earth/atmosphere system, and as a result climate is expected to become warmer. As a starting point for the sea-level rise scenario discussed here it is assumed that the globally-averaged increase of surface air temperatures will amount to 2 to 4°C in the second half of the next century (i.e. around 2085 AD). One of the consequences of this warming is an accelerated rise in sea level, caused by thermal expansion of ocean water and further retreat of mountain glaciers. The Greenland Ice Sheet will also decrease in size, but on the other hand, Antarctica is expected to grow slightly due to increased snowfall. Taken together, the projection for future sea level presented here suggest that by 2085 AD, global sea-level stand will be 28–66 cm higher than the present level, which implies a rate of sea-level rise of about 2 to 4 times that observed during the last 100 yr. Our scenario does not include a contribution resulting from the possible collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. If this collapse is indeed likely to occur after the major peripheral ice shelves have thinned considerably, the effects on sea level will be small in the coming 100 yr. First, the oceans surrounding Antarctica must have warmed sufficiently to reduce the winter sea-ice extent to allow circumpolar deep water to penetrate into the sub-shelf cavities, thus increasing basal melt rates on the ice shelves. Of course, on longer time scales, West Antarctica could become the major contributor to rising sea level.  相似文献   

16.
Field investigations suggest that postglacial unloading and rebound led to the formation or re-activation of reverse faults even in continental shields like Scandinavia. Here we use finite-element models including a thrust fault embedded in a rheologically layered lithosphere to investigate its slip evolution during glacial loading and subsequent postglacial unloading. The model results show that the rate of thrusting decreases during the presence of an ice sheet and strongly increases during deglaciation. The magnitude of the slip acceleration is primarily controlled by the thickness of the ice sheet, the viscosity of the lithospheric layers and the long-term shortening rate. In contrast, the width of the ice sheet, the rate of deglaciation or the fault dip have an only minor influence on the slip evolution. In all experiments, the slip rate variations are caused by changes in the differential stress. The modelled deglaciation-induced slip acceleration agrees well with the occurrence of large earthquakes soon after the melting of the Fennoscandian ice sheet, which led to the formation of spectacular fault scarps in particular in the Lapland Fault Province. Furthermore, our model results support the idea that the low level of seismicity in currently glaciated regions like Greenland and Antarctica is caused by the presence of the ice sheets. Based on our models we expect that the decay of the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets in the course of global warming will ultimately lead to an increase in earthquake frequency in these regions.  相似文献   

17.
In this review, the carbon dioxide problem is discussed, with special reference to the possible effects of a global warming on the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. Instead of detailed projections of future climate and the consequences, the basic mechanisms are explained and illustrated with results described in the literature.It is concluded that a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 content (most likely to occur somewhere in the second half of the next century) will result in a globally-averaged warming of 2–4°C, and an intensification of the hydrological cycle. In the polar regions, this warming will be a few degrees larger and as a consequence the Greenland Ice Sheet will decrease in size. Antarctica, on the other hand, is expected to grow because of the increased snowfall. The instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is also discussed and, although no conclusive prediction to its long-term response can be made, it is argued that on a short time scale (less than about 100 y) nothing dramatically wil happen to this part of Antarctica.  相似文献   

18.
Since 1991, the altimeters of the ERS European Satellites allow the observation of 80% of the Antarctica ice sheet and the whole Greenland ice sheet: They thus offer for the first time a unique vision of polar ice caps. Indeed, surface topography is an essential data thanks to its capacity to highlight the physical processes which control the surface shape, or to test models. Moreover, the altimeter is also a radar which makes it possible to estimate the snow surface or subsurface characteristics, such as surface roughness induced by the strong katabatic wind or ice grain size. The polar ice caps may not be in a stationary state, they continue to respond to the climatic warming of the beginning of the Holocene, that is 18000 years ago, and possibly start to react to present climatic warming: the altimeter offers the unique means of estimating the variations of volume and thus the contribution of polar ice caps to present sea level change.  相似文献   

19.
Solving the sea–level equation for a Maxwell Earth, we analyze the sensitivity of Holocene sea–level records in SE Tunisia to the time–history of remote ice sheets. Assuming that mantle viscosity increases moderately with depth, we find that in this region the sea–level variations driven by the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets cancel, so that the late–Holocene sea–level high–stand suggested by the geological record merely reflects the melting history of Antarctica. New insight into the history of this ice sheet is obtained analyzing the information contained in a revised set of relative sea–level observations for sites across the Mediterranean covering the last 8 kyrs. From a trial–and–error misfit analysis, it holds true that in this region the match between model predictions and observations improves when the volume of water released from Antarctica is well below the value imposed by the ICE3G chronology and when a sudden meltwater pulse is allowed between 8 and 7 kyrs before present, corresponding to the epoch of the catastrophic rise event known as CRE3.  相似文献   

20.
In glaciated areas, the Earth is responding to the ongoing changes of the ice sheets, a response known as glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). GIA can be investigated through observations of gravity change. For the ongoing assessment of the ice sheets mass balance, where satellite data are used, the study of GIA is important since it acts as an error source. GIA consists of three signals as seen by a gravimeter on the surface of the Earth. These signals are investigated in this study. The ICE-5G ice history and recently developed ice models of present day changes are used to model the gravity change in Greenland. The result is compared with the initial measurements of absolute gravity (AG) change at selected Greenland Network (GNET) sites.We find that observations are highly influenced by the direct attraction from the ice and ocean. This is especially evident in the measurements conducted at the GNET station near the Helheim Glacier. The effect of the direct attraction diminishes at sites that are more than one degree from the source. Here, the dominant signal is the effect of the elastic signal from present day ice mass changes. We find agreement between the measured and modelled gravity changes at all but one site. This agreement only holds when the direct attraction is considered. For one site, there is no agreement, indicating that some improvements to the modelling results or the processing of the gravity data are needed. In addition, more AG measurements are needed to strengthen the time series of gravity change.  相似文献   

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