Wavelet Analysis of the Quasi-27d Oscillations of Solar Index F10.7

By using the daily averages of F_10.7 in 1956—2003 and adopting the method of Morelet wavelet transform, the characteristics of the quasi-27d oscillations and their relation with the 11-year cycle of solar activity are analyzed. The results demonstrate that the amplitude and period of the quasi-27d oscillations of F_10.7 exhibit obvious phenomena of short-tern variations. The degrees of variations in various years differ greatly. In some years, the undulations are quite violent. In periods of several days to several tens of days, the change of amplitude may attain ten more times, and the period may change abruptly by several days or even ten more days. In some years, the changes of amplitude are rather large, yet the undulations are small and the period is comparatively steady. In the annual averages of the variation of quasi-27d oscillaions there appear evident changes from year to year, and this is conspicuouly related to solar activity. Generally speaking, the higher is F_10.7, the larger is the amplitude of quasi-27d oscillations. Nevertheless, in the peak of the 19th cycle the values of F_10.7 is higher than those of all the other cycles, yet the amplitude of quasi-27d oscillations is lower than those of other cycles. The period of quasi-27d oscillations also exhibits evident changes from year to year. Except certain individual years (e.g., 1987), the annual averages vary in the range from 24 to 31 days, and this has no evident relation with the period of solar activity. The mean period in 48 years is 27.3d. On the whole, the period shows a tendency of gradual shortening. In 48 years, it has decreased by about 1.5d. The causes of quasi-27d oscillations are very complicated, and this awaits further deepgoing investigation.     

10.7-cm Solar radio flux and the magnetic complexity of active regions

During sunspot cycles 20 and 21, the maximum in smoothed 10.7-cm solar radio flux occurred about 1.5 yr after the maximum smoothed sunspot number, whereas during cycles 18 and 19 no lag was observed. Thus, although 10.7-cm radio flux and Zürich suspot number are highly correlated, they are not interchangeable, especially near solar maximum. The 10.7-cm flux more closely follows the number of sunspots visible on the solar disk, while the Zürich sunspot number more closely follows the number of sunspot groups. The number of sunspots in an active region is one measure of the complexity of the magnetic structure of the region, and the coincidence in the maxima of radio flux and number of sunspots apparently reflects higher radio emission from active regions of greater magnetic complexity. The presence of a lag between sunspot-number maximum and radio-flux maximum in some cycles but not in others argues that some aspect of the average magnetic complexity near solar maximum must vary from cycle to cycle. A speculative possibility is that the radio-flux lag discriminates between long-period and short-period cycles, being another indicator that the solar cycle switches between long-period and short-period modes.Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc. under contract with the National Science Foundation.     

High-resolution observation and detailed photometry of a great Hα two-ribbon flare

We propose that when all sources on the solar disc are taken into account, the S component at 10.7 cm wavelength is dominated by thermal free-free (bremsstrahlung) emission. It is not produced only in the vicinity of sunspots; more than 60% of the total flux may be due to a widely-distributed emission associated with the hot complexes of activity. Using a model for the solar atmosphere based upon an assumption of weak (or vertical) magnetic fields, the spectrum of the S-component is calculated and its sensitivity to changes in the model parameters investigated. Variation of the thicknesses of the chromosphere, transition region and mixed zone cause only small changes in the S-component spectrum; there is a much stronger dependence upon the plasma density, particularly at the base of the corona. The behaviour of the S-component at 10.7 cm wavelength is examined in more detail. We find that the largest contribution to the 10.7 cm flux originates in the low corona, that structural changes affect it only slightly, but that it is strongly density-related. This dependence upon few quantities, together with its relative localization in the low corona, contributes to the usefulness of the 10.7 cm flux as an index of solar activity.Summer Student Worker, 1988.     

Forecast daily indices of solar activity, F10.7, using support vector regression method

The 10.7cm solar radio flux (F10.7), the value of the solar radio emission flux density at a wavelength of 10.7cm, is a useful index of solar activity as a proxy for solar extreme ultraviolet radiation. It is meaningful and important to predict F10.7 values accurately for both long-term (months-years) and short-term (days) forecasting, which are often used as inputs in space weather models. This study applies a novel neural network technique, support vector regression (SVR), to forecasting daily values of F10.7. The aim of this study is to examine the feasibility of SVR in short-term F10.7 forecasting. The approach, based on SVR, reduces the dimension of feature space in the training process by using a kernel-based learning algorithm. Thus, the complexity of the calculation becomes lower and a small amount of training data will be sufficient. The time series of F10.7 from 2002 to 2006 are employed as the data sets. The performance of the approach is estimated by calculating the norm mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. It is shown that our approach can perform well by using fewer training data points than the traditional neural network.     

Modeling Research of the 27-day Forecast of 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux (I)

Adopting the autoregressive method for time-series modeling, we have made a study on the medium-term forecast of solar 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7). The result of forecast experiments and the error analysis indicate that when the solar activity is at a rather low level and the 27-day periodicity of F10.7 is apparent, the autoregressive forecast method has a high accuracy and relatively ideal effectiveness, but when a large active region appears or disappears on the solar dusk, the forecast effectiveness is not ideal. This means that the autoregressive method for the time-series modeling can reflect well the 27-day periodicity of F10.7, and that it has certain applicability for building a mediumterm forecast model of F10.7. By comparing the forecast results in the period from 21th September 2005 to 7th June 2007, it is demonstrated that the accuracy of the autoregressive forecast method is equivalent to that of the forecast made by the American Air Force.     

Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair

We describe using Ap and F_10.7 as a geomagnetic-precursor pair to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. The precursor is created by using F_10.7 to remove the direct solar-activity component of Ap. Four peaks are seen in the precursor function during the decline of Solar Cycle 23. A recurrence index that is generated by a local correlation of Ap is then used to determine which peak is the correct precursor. The earliest peak is the most prominent but coincides with high levels of non-recurrent solar activity associated with the intense solar activity of October and November 2003. The second and third peaks coincide with some recurrent activity on the Sun and show that a weak cycle precursor closely following a period of strong solar activity may be difficult to resolve. A fourth peak, which appears in early 2008 and has recurrent activity similar to precursors of earlier solar cycles, appears to be the “true” precursor peak for Solar Cycle 24 and predicts the smallest amplitude for Solar Cycle 24. To determine the timing of peak activity it is noted that the average time between the precursor peak and the following maximum is ≈?6.4 years. Hence, Solar Cycle 24 would peak during 2014. Several effects contribute to the smaller prediction when compared with other geomagnetic-precursor predictions. During Solar Cycle 23 the correlation between sunspot number and F_10.7 shows that F_10.7 is higher than the equivalent sunspot number over most of the cycle, implying that the sunspot number underestimates the solar-activity component described by F_10.7. During 2003 the correlation between aa and Ap shows that aa is 10 % higher than the value predicted from Ap, leading to an overestimate of the aa precursor for that year. However, the most important difference is the lack of recurrent activity in the first three peaks and the presence of significant recurrent activity in the fourth. While the prediction is for an amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 of 65±20 in smoothed sunspot number, a below-average amplitude for Solar Cycle 24, with maximum at 2014.5±0.5, we conclude that Solar Cycle 24 will be no stronger than average and could be much weaker than average.     

基于深度学习的太阳F_10.7辐射通量的短期预报研究

F_10.7太阳辐射通量作为输入参数被广泛运用于大气经验模型、电离层模型等空间环境模型,其预报精度直接影响航天器轨道预报精度.采用时间序列法统计了太阳辐射通量F10.7指数和太阳黑子数(SSN)的关系,给出了两者之间的线性关系,在此基础上提出了一种基于长短时记忆神经网络(Long and Short Term Memory,LSTM)的预报方法,方法结合了54 d太阳辐射通量指数和SSN历史数据来对F_10.7进行未来7 d短期预报,并与其他预报方法的预报结果进行了比较,结果表明:(1)所建短期预报7 d方法模型的性能优于美国空间天气预报中心(Space Weather Prediction Center, SWPC)的方法,预测值和观测值的相关系数(CC)达到0.96,同时其均方根误差约为11.62个太阳辐射通量单位(sfu),预报结果的均方根误差(RMSE)低于SWPC,下降约11%;(2)对预测的23、24周太阳活动年结果统计表明,太阳活动高年的第7 d F10.7指数预报平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)最优可达12.9%以内,低年最优可达2...     

An Early Prediction of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

A “Solar Dynamo” (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21?–?24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle’s smoothed peak activity will be about \(140 \pm30\) solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of \(135 \pm25\). This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near \(2025.2 \pm1.5\) year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer.     

A Fractal Structure of the Time Series of Global Indices of Solar Activity

The structure of time series of daily global indices of solar activity is investigated: the sunspot numbers for the time interval between the years 1854 and 1996, the Greenwich total sunspot area for 1874–1983, the radio-flux at 10.7 cm (F10.7) for 1964–1996, and the Stanford mean solar magnetic field for 1975–1996. The fractal dimensions are determined by two fractal and spectral methods. The identified three time-scale ranges, 2 days–2 months, 2 months–2 years, 2 years–8 and more years, with the fractal dimensions 1.4–1.6, 2, 1.2–1.6, respectively, show perhaps some fractal structure of time series of global indices. The first time-scale range may correspond to ordinary brownian noise and the second to flicker noise. The solar rotation influence of the value of the fractal dimensions at the time range close to the rotational period is studied.     

Chaotic behaviour of solar radio flux

The presence of a chaotic attractor is investigated in time series of 10.7 cm solar flux. The correlation dimension and the Kolomogorov entropy have been calculated for the time period 1964–1984. The values found for the Kolmogorov entropy show that chaos is indeed present. The correlation dimension found for high solar activity is 3.3 and for low solar activity is 4.5, indicating that a low-dimensionsion chaotic attractor is present in the time series analysed.     

A Search for Periodicities in F10.7 Solar Radio Flux Data

The radio frequency emission at 10.7 cm (or 2800 MHz) wavelength (considered as solar flux density) out of different possible wavelengths is usually selected to identify periodicities because of its high correlation with solar extreme ultraviolet radiation as well as its complete and long observational record other than sunspot related indices. The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm wavelength plays a very valuable role for forecasting the space weather because it is originated from lower corona and chromospheres region of the Sun. Also, solar radio flux is a magnificent indicator of major solar activity. Here in the present work the solar radio flux data from 1965 to 2014 observed at the Domimion Radio Astrophysical Observatory in Penticton, British Columbiahas been processed using Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT) to identify predominant periods within the data along with their confidence levels. Also, the multi-taper method (MTM) for periodicity analysis is used to validate the observed periods. Present investigation exhibits multiperiodicity of the time series F10.7 solar radio flux data around 27, 57, 78, 127, 157, 4096 days etc. The observed periods are also compared with the periods of MgII Index data using same algorithm as MgII Index data has 99.9% correlation with F10.7 Solar Radio Flux data. It can be observed that the MgII index data exhibits similar periodicities with very high confidence levels.Present investigation also clearly indicates that the computed results are very much confining with the results obtained in different communication for the similar data of 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux as well as for the other solar activities.

     

BoxCox multi-output linear regression for 10.7 cm solar radio flux prediction

We consider the problem of predicting the mid-term daily 10.7 cm solar radio flux(F10.7),a widely-used solar activity index.A novel approach is proposed for this task,in which BoxCox transformation with a proper parameter is first applied to make the data satisfy the property of homoscedasticity that is a basic assumption of regression models,and then a multi-output linear regression model is used to predict future F10.7 values.The experiment shows that the BoxCox transformation significantly improves the predictive performance and our new approach works substantially better than the prediction from the US Airforce and other alternative methods like Auto-regressive Model,Multi-layer Perceptron,and Support Vector Regression.     

Fractal dimensions of solar activity

Solar activity changes in amplitude and long-term behavior irregularly. Fractal theory is used to examine the variation of solar activity, using daily solar indices (i.e., sunspot number, 10.7 cm radio flux, the SME L, Fexiv coronal emission, and the total solar irradiance measured by the ERB (Earth Radiation Budget) on the NIMBUS-7. It can handle irregular variations quantitatively. The fractal dimension of 10.7 cm radio fluxes in cycle 21 for periods of 7 days or less was 1.28, 1.3 for periods longer than 272 days, and 1.86 for periods between them, for example. Fractal dimensions for other solar indices show similar tendencies. These results suggest that solar activity varies more irregularly for time scales that are longer than several days and shorter than several months. Yearly values of fractal dimensions and bending points do not change in concert with the solar cycle.     

Solar Magnetic Activity and Total Irradiance Since the Maunder Minimum

We develop a model for estimating solar total irradiance since 1600 AD using the sunspot number record as input, since this is the only intrinsic record of solar activity extending back far enough in time. Sunspot number is strongly correlated, albeit nonlinearly with the 10.7-cm radio flux (F _10.7), which forms a continuous record back to 1947. This enables the nonlinear relationship to be estimated with usable accuracy and shows that relationship to be consistent over multiple solar activity cycles. From the sunspot number record we estimate F _10.7 values back to 1600 AD. F _10.7 is linearly correlated with the total amount of magnetic flux in active regions, and we use it as input to a simple cascade model for the other magnetic flux components. The irradiance record is estimated by using these magnetic flux components plus a very rudimentary model for the modulation of energy flow to the photosphere by the subphotospheric magnetic flux reservoir feeding the photospheric magnetic structures. Including a Monte Carlo analysis of the consequences of measurement and fitting errors, the model indicates the mean irradiance during the Maunder Minimum was about 1 ± 0.4 W m⁻² lower than the mean irradiance over the last solar activity cycle.     

Pioneer Venus Orbiter Measurements of Solar EUV Flux During Solar Cycles 21 and 22

The Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) had on board the electron temperature probe experiment which measured temperature and concentration of electrons in the ionosphere of Venus. When the probe was outside the Venus ionosphere and was in the solar wind, the probe current was entirely due to solar photons striking the probe surface. This probe thus measured integrated solar EUV flux (Ipe) over a 13-year period from January 1979 to December 1991, thereby covering the declining phase of solar cycle 21 and the rising phase of solar cycle 22. In this paper, we examine the behavior of Ipe translated to the solar longitude of Earth (to be called EIpe) during the two solar cycles. We find that total EUV flux changed by about 60% during solar cycle 21 and by about 100% in solar cycle 22. We also compare this flux with other solar activity indicators such as F_10.7 , Lα, and the solar magnetic field. We find that while the daily values of EIpe are highly correlated with F_10.7 (correlation coefficient 0.87), there is a large scatter in EIpe for any value of this Earth-based index. A comparison of EIpe with SME and UARS SOLSTICE Lα measurements taken during the same period shows that EIpe tracks Lα quite faithfully with a correlation coefficient of 0.94. Similar comparison with the solar magnetic field (Bs) shows that EIpe correlates better with Bs than with F_10.7 . We also compare EIpe with total solar irradiance measured during the same period.     

Hysteresis,time lag,and relation between solar activity and cosmic rays during solar cycle 24

We study galactic cosmic ray (GCR) modulation during solar cycle 24. For this study we utilize neutron monitor data together with sunspot number (SSN) and 10.7 cm solar radio flux (SRF) data. We plot hysteresis curve between the GCR intensity and SSN, and GCR intensity and SRF. We performed time-lag correlation analysis to determine the time lag between GCR intensity and solar activity parameters. The time lag is determined not only for the whole solar cycle, but also during the two polarity states of the heliosphere (A<0 and A>0) in solar cycle 24. We notice differences in time lags during two polarity epochs of the solar cycle. We discuss these differences in the light of existing modulation models. We compare the results of this very weak solar activity cycle with the corresponding results reported for the previous comparatively more active solar cycles.     

What do the solar activity indices represent?

Sunspot number, sunspot area, and radio flux at 10.7 cm are the indices which are most frequently used to describe the long‐term solar activity. The data of the daily solar full‐disk magnetograms measured at Mount Wilson Observatory from 19 January 1970 to 31 December 2012 are utilized together with the daily observations of the three indices to probe the relationship of the full‐disk magnetic activity respectively with the indices. Cross correlation analyses of the daily magnetic field measurements at Mount Wilson observatory are taken with the daily observations of the three indices, and the statistical significance of the difference of the obtained correlation coefficients is investigated. The following results are obtained: (1) The sunspot number should be preferred to represent/reflect the full‐disk magnetic activity of the Sun to which the weak magnetic fields (outside of sunspots) mainly contribute, the sunspot area should be recommended to represent the strong magnetic activity of the Sun (in sunspots), and the 10.7 cm radio flux should be preferred to represent the full‐disk magnetic activity of the Sun (both the weak and strong magnetic fields) to which the weak magnetic fields mainly contribute. (2) On the other hand, the most recommendable index that could be used to represent/reflect the weak magnetic activity is the 10.7 cm radio flux, the most recommendable index that could be used to represent the strong magnetic activity is the sunspot area, and the most recommendable index that could be used to represent the full‐disk magnetic activity of the Sun is the 10.7cm radio flux. Additionally, the cycle characteristics of the magnetic field strengths on the solar disk are given. (© 2014 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Solar activity during first six years of solar cycle 24 and 23: a comparative study

Attempt to look into the nature of solar activity and variability have increased importance in recent days because of their terrestrial relationships. In the present work we have attempted to compare the solar activity events during first six years (2008–2013) of the ongoing solar cycle 24 with first six years (1996–2001) of solar cycle 23. To that end, we have considered sunspot numbers, F10.7 cm solar flux, halo CMEs and geomagnetic storms as comparison parameters. Sunspot number during the year 2008–2013 varied from 0 to 96.7 while during the year 1996 to 2001 it was observed from 0.9 to 170.1. Solar radio flux (F10.7 cm index) varied from 65 to 190 during the years 2008–2013 while it was observed from 65 to 283 during the years 1996–2001. 197 cases of halo CMEs (width=360^°) in solar cycle 23 (1996–2001) and 177 cases of halo CMEs (width=360^°) in solar cycle 24 (2008–2013) are investigated. 287 and 104 geomagnetic storm cases (Dst varies between ?50 and ?350 nT) are analysed during the half period of solar cycle 23 and 24 respectively. Comparative results indicate that solar cycle 23 was more pronounced in comparison of solar cycle 24.     

Solar cycle variation of long duration 10.7 cm and soft X-ray bursts

Gradual rise-and-fall (GRF) microwave bursts and long duration soft X-ray events (LDEs) are generally accompanied by solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We use reports from the Ottawa and Penticton stations to examine the annual variations from 1965 to 1985 of 10.7 cm GRF bursts with total durations of at least 4 hr. The annual numbers of such bursts are well correlated with the quiet-Sun 10.7 cm flux densities. This result is in contrast with the finding of Koomen et al. (1985) that the annual numbers of 4 hr GOES soft X-ray events are not well correlated with sunspot numbers. We show that the latter result is biased by the large variation of the quiet-Sun X-ray background throughout the solar cycle. Four-hour events are more easily detected in X-ray data than in 10.7 cm data at solar minimum, but, conversely, these events are much more easily detected in 10.7 cm data around solar maximum. About 70% of the most energetic CMEs are associated with 4 hr X-ray or 10.7 cm bursts. A one-to-one relationship does not exist between CMEs and either LDEs or GRF bursts viewed in full-Sun detectors.     

Evolution of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Indices, and Their Relationship: 1960?�C?2001

We employ annually averaged solar and geomagnetic activity indices for the period 1960??C?2001 to analyze the relationship between different measures of solar activity as well as the relationship between solar activity and various aspects of geomagnetic activity. In particular, to quantify the solar activity we use the sunspot number R _s, group sunspot number R _g, cumulative sunspot area Cum, solar radio flux F10.7, and interplanetary magnetic field strength IMF. For the geomagnetic activity we employ global indices Ap, Dst and Dcx, as well as the regional geomagnetic index RES, specifically estimated for the European region. In the paper we present the relative evolution of these indices and quantify the correlations between them. Variations have been found in: i) time lag between the solar and geomagnetic indices; ii) relative amplitude of the geomagnetic and solar activity peaks; iii) dual-peak distribution in some of solar and geomagnetic indices. The behavior of geomagnetic indices is correlated the best with IMF variations. Interestingly, among geomagnetic indices, RES shows the highest degree of correlation with solar indices.