近10年来可可西里地区主要湖泊冰情时空变化

基于2000-2011年可可西里地区湖泊边界矢量数据、MODIS和Landsat TM/ETM+遥感影像和气象数据等资料,利用RS和GIS技术综合分析该地区主要湖泊冰情变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明：① 可可西里地区湖泊开始结冰和完全结冰出现在每年的10月下旬至11月上旬和11月中旬至12月上旬,湖泊由开始冻结至完全冻结持续时间约半个月;湖冰开始消融和完全消融时间较为分散,主要出现在每年的4月下旬至6月初和5月初至6月上旬,湖泊完全封冻期和封冻期为181 d和196 d。② 2000-2011年间,可可西里地区湖冰物候特征发生了显著变化,湖泊开始冻结和完全冻结时间推迟,湖冰开始消融和完全消融时间提前,湖泊完全封冻期和封冻期持续时间普遍缩短,平均变化速率分别为-2.21 d/a和-1.91 d/a。③ 湖冰物候特征及湖泊冰情演变是区域气候变化和湖泊自身条件共同作用的结果,其中气温、湖泊面积、湖水矿化度和湖泊形态是影响湖冰物候特征的主要因素,而湖泊热储量、地质构造等因素对湖冰演化的作用亦不可忽视。④ 可可西里地区湖泊冻结空间模式与消融过程相反,以湖冰由湖泊一岸扩展到另一岸的湖泊数量居多。     

2000-2016年青海湖湖冰物候特征变化

湖冰物候特征是气候变化的灵敏指示器。基于2000-2016年青海湖边界矢量数据,结合Terra MODIS和Landsat TM/ETM+遥感影像及气象数据,利用RS和GIS技术综合分析青海湖湖冰物候特征变化及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明：① 青海湖开始冻结、完全冻结、开始消融和完全消融的时间分别为12月中旬、1月上旬、3月中下旬和3月下旬至4月上旬,平均封冻期和平均完全封冻期为88 d和77 d,平均湖冰存在期和平均消融期为108 d和10 d。② 近16年间青海湖湖冰物候特征各时间节点变化呈现较大的差异性。湖泊开始冻结日期相对变化较小,完全冻结日期呈先提前后推迟的波动趋势,开始消融日期呈先推迟后提前的波动趋势,完全消融日期在2012-2016年呈明显提前趋势。青海湖封冻期在2000-2005年和2010-2016年呈缩短趋势,但减少速率慢于青藏高原腹地的湖泊。③ 青海湖冻结和消融的空间模式相同,即湖冰形成较早的区域则消融较早,且前者持续时间（18~31 d）整体上大于后者（7~20 d）,二者相差约10 d。④ 冬半年负积温大小是影响青海湖封冻期的关键要素,但风速和降水对青海湖湖冰的形成和消融亦发挥着重要作用。     

2000—2019年新疆大型湖泊湖冰物候时空变化特征

湖冰物候变化特征是全球气候变化过程的重要指示器。通过长时间序列MODIS数据、Landsat数据提取的湖泊数据集,综合分析了2000—2019年新疆大型湖泊湖冰物候的变化特征。结果表明：（1） 近20 a新疆大型湖泊的开始冻结日呈现提前和推迟2种变化趋势,开始冻结日呈现推迟趋势的湖泊分别为博斯腾湖、赛里木湖、艾比湖、吉力湖、乌伦古湖、萨利吉勒干南库勒湖和鲸鱼湖,且大部分湖泊的开始冻结日推迟趋势在0.51~1.53 d·a^-1之间;开始冻结日呈现提前趋势的湖泊有3个,分别为阿牙克库木湖（变化趋势为-1.04 d·a^-1）、阿克赛钦湖（变化趋势为-0.41 d·a^-1）、阿其克库勒湖（-0.31 d·a^-1）。（2） 湖冰完全覆盖期是重要的湖冰参数,湖冰覆盖期的延长或者缩短能够直接表示区域气候变化过程,新疆大部分湖泊湖冰覆盖期表现为缩短趋势,其中分布在新疆中北部的艾比湖、吉力湖和博斯腾湖等湖泊的湖冰覆盖期缩短较为明显,变化趋势分别为-1.76 d·a^-1、-2.13 d·a^-1和-0.81 d·a^-1;冰完全覆盖期延长的湖泊有3个,分别为阿牙克库木湖、阿其克库勒湖和鲸鱼湖,变化趋势分别为3.51 d·a^-1、1.54 d·a^-1和1.37 d·a^-1,这些湖泊均匀分布在昆仑山高原北翼。（3） 新疆大型湖泊湖冰物候变化特征是受其自身条件（湖泊形态因子、湖泊面积等）及气候变化（气温、降水量等）等多种因素共同作用的结果。本研究探讨了气候变化环境下的新疆大型湖泊湖冰物候的冻融趋势及其变化模式,同时应用不同遥感数据和研究方法识别了湖冰,证实了MODIS数据反演湖冰物候的可行性。     

气候变化对黄河内蒙古段凌汛期的影响

基于黄河内蒙古段1961-2009年气象与水文观测资料,选取黄河内蒙古段上游磴口站和下游托克托县作为研究对象,利用数理统计等方法,分析凌汛最危险地段上下游气候变化与凌汛期的关系。得出:①黄河内蒙古段的凌汛灾害是黄河上游的河道气温比下段高以及地形比降小等,形成黄河内蒙古段下游先封河、上游先开河的局面,导致磴口到托克托县段成为凌险最严重的地段。②随着气候变暖,近50 a黄河内蒙古段开河期提早、封河期推后,凌汛期缩短。尤其在1987年气温发生突变之后,开河期提早和推后趋势更为明显。同时气温突变之后,凌汛期平均温度变异系数增大,封、开河期冷暖变化剧烈,致使封开河期的波动性增大。③影响黄河内蒙古河段开、封河的关键因素是日平均气温小于-5 ℃的积温、日平均气温小于-5 ℃持续时间和封、开河期温度以及封、开河期流量大小等。极端温度事件如寒冷日数、冷夜指数和冷日指数的减少,以及暖夜指数和暖日指数的显著增加也是影响黄河内蒙古段凌汛期缩短的原因之一。     

青海可可西里主要湖泊湖底地貌研究

应用阈值法对青海可可西里地区主要湖泊的遥感影像进行水体信息提取,根据水体与其它地物在ETM+的5波段具有很好的区分效果,经反复尝试在该波段找到了适合各个湖泊的分离阈值。通过目视解读,并与相关地形图对比检验,湖泊水体可较为准确提取出。利用ENVI软件得到包含湖底信息的合成图像,选择其中信息丰富的假彩色合成图像进行解译,根据其色调并结合近岸地形信息初步判断出了湖底的地形地势,并在永红湖底发现了一个特殊的环状构造。     

Spatial-temporal characteristics of lake area variations in Hoh Xil region from 1970 to 2011

As one of the areas with numerous lakes on the Tibetan Plateau, the Hoh Xil region plays an extremely important role in the fragile plateau eco-environment. Based on topographic maps in the 1970s and Landsat TM/ETM+ remote sensing images in the 1990s and the period from 2000 to 2011, the data of 83 lakes with an area above 10 km² each were obtained by digitization method and artificial visual interpretation technology, and the causes for lake variations were also analyzed. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) From the 1970s to 2011, the lakes in the Hoh Xil region firstly shrank and then expanded. In particular, the area of lakes generally decreased during the 1970s–1990s. Then the lakes expanded from the 1990s to 2000 and the area was slightly higher than that in the 1970s. The area of lakes dramatically increased after 2000. (2) From 2000 to 2011, the lakes with different area ranks in the Hoh Xil region showed an overall expansion trend. Meanwhile, some regional differences were also discovered. Most of the lakes expanded and were widely distributed in the northern, central and western parts of the region. Some lakes were merged together or overflowed due to their rapid expansion. A small number of lakes with the trend of area decrease or strong fluctuation were scattered in the central and southern parts of the study area. And their variations were related to their own supply conditions or hydraulic connection with the downstream lakes or rivers. (3) The increase in precipitation was the dominant factor resulting in the expansion of lakes in the Hoh Xil region. The secondary factor was the increase in meltwater from glaciers and frozen soil due to climate warming.     

青藏高原可可西里地区现代冰川发育特征

经野外考察和室内分析计算，青藏可可西里地区发育现代冰川４３７条，覆盖面积达１５５２．３９ｋｍ＾２，冰储量为１６２．８３４９ｋｍ＾３，成为本区众多河湖泊水体的重要补给源泉。     

近40 年可可西里地区湖泊时空变化特征

以可可西里地区1970s 地形图和1990s、2000-2011 年Landsat TM/ETM+遥感影像为基础,通过数字化和影像解译获取研究区83 个面积大于10 km²湖泊变化数据,并对湖泊变化成因进行了分析。研究结果表明:1) 1970s 初期至2011 年,可可西里地区湖泊经历了“先萎缩后扩张”的变化过程,其中1970s-1990s 期间湖泊面积普遍减小,1990s-2000 年湖泊出现扩张,并在2000 年恢复到1970s 湖泊规模,2000 年之后湖泊面积急剧增大。2) 2000-2011 年间,可可西里地区不同规模等级湖泊整体呈扩张趋势,但表现出一定的区域差异性。面积呈增加趋势的湖泊数量最多,亦分布最广,一些湖泊由于扩张迅速出现湖泊合并或湖水外泄情况;面积呈减少趋势或波动起伏的湖泊数量较少,零散分布在研究区中部和南部,湖泊动态变化与其自身补给条件或与下游湖泊(河道) 存在水力联系有关。3) 在研究时段内,降水增多、蒸发减少是可可西里地区湖泊扩大的主要原因,而气候变暖引起的冰川融水增加、冻土水分释放是次要原因。     

2000-2013年西藏纳木错湖冰变化及其影响因素

湖冰物候事件是气候变化的敏感指示器。本文以西藏纳木错湖为研究对象,基于MODIS多光谱反射率产品数据监测了2000-2013年纳木错湖冰冻融日期,并结合多个气象站点的气象数据和实测湖面温度、湖面辐射亮温分析验证了湖冰变化的原因。纳木错湖冰变化较好地响应了区域气候变暖：开始冻结日期延迟和完全消融日期提前使湖冰存在期显著缩短(2.8 d/a)、湖冰冻结期增长、湖冰消融期缩短,其中消融期变化最为明显,平均每年缩短3.1 d。湖冰冻融日期的变化表明：2000年后纳木错湖冰冻结困难,消融加速,稳定性减弱。纳木错湖冰变化主要受湖面温度、湖面辐射亮温和气温变化的影响,它们可以作为气象因子来解释区域气候变化。     

1986—2017年呼伦湖湖冰物候特征变化

湖冰冰情物候特征是气候变化的敏感指示器之一。论文以呼伦湖为研究对象,基于MODIS、Landsat、GF-1、HJ-1等多源遥感影像及气象数据,利用RS和GIS技术综合分析了1986—2017年呼伦湖冰情物候特征及其对区域气候的响应。结果表明：① 呼伦湖年均开始冻结时间在10月下旬至11月上旬,从结冰开始到完全封冻的时间平均只有6.4 d;开始融冰时间在次年的4月上旬,消融期平均为32 d左右,到5月初或5月上旬湖冰完全融化。② 1986—2017年,在整个研究期呼伦湖完全封冻期呈现显著缩短趋势,平均缩短18.5 d;完全结冰时间有一定延迟现象,平均延后8.4 d;冰全部融化时间呈现提前趋势,平均提前了11.2 d。③ 湖冰冻结消融空间特征表现不同,冻结时先从湖岸形态较复杂地区结冰,然后由东岸向西岸迅速封冻,消融时先从湖泊西北岸开始,逐渐向东岸融化。④ 在影响因素方面,呼伦湖冰情特征主要受到区域气温、风速、风向等因素的影响。     

可可西里盐湖及其沉积特征初步研究

通过对可可西里地区盐湖的沉积学、地球化学和遥感学的研究,发现该地区盐湖的水化学类型多数为硫酸镁亚型,个别为氯化物型,而没有碳酸盐型盐湖。盐湖水化学特征为矿化度高,pH值中性到偏弱酸性,密度在1.10 g/L左右;B-Li微量元素具有共生元素对属性,Sr-Ba、As-Hg等具反生元素对属性。盐湖中的锂、硼等物质很可能来自于与火山和断裂构造有关的地下热泉。沉积的盐类矿物主要为石盐、芒硝、无水芒硝,另有少量的水钙芒硝、白钠镁矾、方解石、石膏、菱镁矿等盐类矿物。依据现有数据和沉积剖面推测,可可西里最早的盐类沉积很可能达到60 ka左右。     

可可西里盐湖湖水外溢可能性初探

2011年9月可可西里地区卓乃湖溃决后,关于盐湖湖水能否外溢进入楚玛尔河继而成为长江的最北源是公众及学界普遍关注的话题。本研究基于2010-2015年Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI遥感影像、SRTM 1弧秒数据、Google Earth高程数据和五道梁气象台站观测数据,首次对盐湖变化、湖水外溢条件及其可能性进行分析。结果表明：卓乃湖溃决后,盐湖在2011年10月至2013年4月期间面积急剧增加,之后湖泊进入稳定扩张期,2015年10月27日盐湖面积为151.38 km²,是2010年3月3日湖泊面积的3.35倍。盐湖发生湖水外溢的条件是湖泊面积达到218.90~220.63 km²。由于SRTM和Google Earth高程数据间的差异,盐湖湖水外溢时的水位将比当前高12 m或9.6 m,相应湖泊库容增加23.71 km³或17.27 km³,届时湖水将由湖泊东侧流入清水河流域。尽管盐湖在未来10年内不可能发生湖水外溢,但是随着盐湖集水区的扩大及预估的区域未来降水量的增加,在更长时间尺度内盐湖发生湖水外溢并成为长江支流的可能性依然存在。     

Effects of sea ice on breeding numbers and clutch size of a high arctic population of the common eider Somateria mollissima

The breeding performance of high-arctic bird populations shows large inter-annual variation that may be attributed to environmental variability, such as the timing of snow melt and break-up of the landfast sea ice that surrounds breeding colonies on islands and along coasts. In the Kongsfjorden area (79°N) on Svalbard, the number of breeding pairs and the average egg clutch size vary considerably among years. In this study, data on breeding performance are presented from 15 years in the period 1981–2000. The results showed that early break-up of sea ice in Kongsfjorden resulted in larger numbers of nests and larger average clutch sizes than late break-up. Also, individual islands with early break-up of sea ice in a particular year had more nests and larger clutch sizes compared to other islands surrounded by sea ice during a longer period in spring. Thus, the inter-annual variation in the break-up of sea ice in the fjord has considerable implications for the inter-annual variability of recruitment to the population. The results indicate that the effects of global warming on changes in the sea ice melting regime in coastal regions are important for the reproductive output of island-nesting eiders.     

Overflow probability of the Salt Lake in Hoh Xil Region

After the bursting of Huiten Nor in Hoh Xil Region in September, 2011, the topic on whether the water overflowed from the Salt Lake would enter into the Chumaer River and become the northernmost source of the Yangtze River has aroused wide concern from public and academic field. Based on Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI remote sensing images during 2010–2015, SRTM 1 arc-second data, Google Earth elevation data and the observation data from the Wudaoliang meteorological station, the study initially analyzed the variations of the Salt Lake and its overflowing condition and probability. The results showed that the area of the Salt Lake expanded sharply from October 2011 to April 2013, and then it stepped into a stable expansion period. On October 27, 2015, the area of the Salt Lake had arrived at 151.38 km², which was about 3.35 times the area of the lake on March 3, 2010. The Salt Lake will overflow when its area reaches the range from 218.90 km² to 220.63 km². Due to the differences between SRTM DEM and Google Earth elevation data, the water level of the Salt Lake simulated would be 12 m or 9.6 m higher than the current level when the lake overflowed, and its reservoir capacity would increase by 23.71 km³ or 17.27 km³, respectively. Meanwhile, the overflowed water of the Salt Lake would run into the Qingshui River basin from its eastern part. Although the Salt Lake does not overflow in the coming decade, with watershed expansion of the Salt Lake and the projected precipitation increase in Hoh Xil region, the probability of water overflow from the Salt Lake and becoming a tributary of the Yangtze River will exist in the long term.     

可可西里古近系含盐系地层沉积特征及古盐湖成盐模式讨论

可可西里是羌北—滇西构造域中重要的新生代沉积盆地,其古近系红层是认识中国陆相微陆块成盐作用的重要窗口。该区南部沱沱河盆地、北部错仁德加盆地古近系雅西措群地层中明显包含两套含盐系地层,两套层系形成的时代、古气候条件相同,但古地理条件、古盐湖盆地规模、成盐机制各异。渐新世时期沱沱河盆地属于封闭型的干盐湖沉积,错仁德加盆地属于开放型干盐湖沉积环境,预示着青藏高原中部渐新世大可可西里盆地并非相互连通,其中小型盆地的沉积成盐环境存在差异。     

可可西里地区中更新世以来气候演化周期特征分析

以青藏高原腹地可可西里地区为研究区,于2006年8月取得一湖泊沉积钻孔,进深106m,地理位置35°13′05″N,93°55′52.2″E,命名为BDQ06。选择湖泊沉积物粒度和总有机碳作为气候代用指标。基于古地磁建立的年代框架为基础,分析了可可西里地区929 kaBP以来古气候变化的周期特征。选择的分析方法为功率谱分析、小波分析和奇异谱分析。结果表明地球轨道三要素偏心率（100 ka）、地轴倾角（41 ka）和岁差（23 ka、19 ka）的准周期成分在BDQ06孔沉积中有明显反映,同时也包含84、66、54、36、31、27、17、15、12 、11.5、10 ka等周期成分。说明本区气候变化既受到轨道参数的影响,同时也与地球系统内部其它因素变化有关。小波分析和奇异谱分析显示不同气候周期既可在同一时段内叠加存在,又可在不同的时段内独立存在。780 kaBP左右古气候周期发生转型,在此之前以41 ka为主,同时也存在100 ka周期成分,之后以100 ka周期为主,但580 kaBP开始气候周期信号变得复杂,可能是受到青藏高原构造隆升的影响,导致水动力条件发生变化有关。     

考虑局地因素坡向影响的青藏高原工程走廊冻土分布与制图研究

通过Pearson相关性分析,选取对青藏高原工程走廊多年冻土分布影响较大、在GIS技术支持下较容易量化的坡向因子,结合走廊内2000—2010年29个钻孔点的地温监测数据,建立了年均地温与坡向、纬度和高程的关系模型。根据高原冻土工程地温分带指标,制作了工程走廊内符合实际的冻土分布图,由面积统计结果知:多年冻土区占整个区域的94.06%,其中,低温稳定带占多年冻土区面积的15.94%,主要分布在风火山和可可西里的高山基岩区;低温基本稳定带占16.97%,主要分布在风火山及可可西里丘陵地带;高温不稳定带占48%,主要分布于可可西里和北麓河盆地东缘;高温极不稳地带占19.09%,主要分布于北麓河盆地和楚玛尔河高平原。     

巴丹吉林沙漠典型湖冰冻结-消融的空间模式差异

利用多源遥感数据解译、野外考察、原位观测等方法,分析了巴丹吉林沙漠腹地湖泊群湖冰冻结-消融空间模式及其差异的主要影响因素。结果表明：该沙漠存在4种冻结-消融空间模式,湖冰自湖岸蔓延至湖心、冻结早的区域融化晚;湖冰自湖岸蔓延至湖心、冻结早的区域融化早;湖冰自湖泊一岸扩展至另一岸、冻结早的区域融化晚;湖冰自湖泊一岸扩展至另一岸、冻结早的区域融化早。大部分面积较小湖泊的冻结-消融空间模式为从湖岸冻结至湖心,冻结早的区域消融晚。不同冻结-消融空间模式之间的差异反映了泉水与地下水对湖泊的补给作用,同一盆地内部或同一沙山两侧孪生湖泊湖冰物候特征的差异主要受湖泊形态特征、湖泊溶解性固体总量（TDS）、局地气候条件的影响,有泉水或地下水出露、TDS越低、水位越浅、风力越小的区域冻结越早。泉水、地下水与湖水混合后使湖水TDS降低,更易于冻结,这是巴丹吉林沙漠大部分湖泊冰的最初生成形式,表明巴丹吉林沙漠湖冰物候在一定意义上是湖泊群接受区域深层地下水补给的直接反映。     

青藏高原内陆湖泊过去40年变化研究（英文）

Inland lakes and alpine glaciers are important water resources on the Tibetan Plateau. Understanding their variation is crucial for accurate evaluation and prediction of changes in water supply and for retrieval and analysis of climatic information. Data from previous research on 35 alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau were used to investigate changes in lake water level and area. In terms of temporal changes, the area of the 35 alpine lakes could be divided into five groups: rising, falling-rising, rising-falling, fluctuating, and falling. In terms of spatial changes, the area of alpine lakes in the Himalayan Mountains, the Karakoram Mountains, and the Qaidam Basin tended to decrease; the area of lakes in the Naqu region and the Kunlun Mountains increased; and the area of lakes in the Hoh Xil region and Qilian Mountains fluctuated. Changes in lake water level and area were correlated with regional changes in climate. Reasons for changes in these lakes on the Tibetan Plateau were analyzed, including precipitation and evaporation from meteorological data, glacier meltwater from the Chinese glacier inventories. Several key problems, e.g. challenges of monitoring water balance, limitations to glacial area detection, uncertainties in detecting lake water-level variations and variable region boundaries of lake change types on the Tibetan Plateau were discussed. This research has most indicative significance to regional climate change.     

Changes in inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau over the past 40 years

Inland lakes and alpine glaciers are important water resources on the Tibetan Plateau. Understanding their variation is crucial for accurate evaluation and prediction of changes in water supply and for retrieval and analysis of climatic information. Data from previous research on 35 alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau were used to investigate changes in lake water level and area. In terms of temporal changes, the area of the 35 alpine lakes could be divided into five groups: rising, falling-rising, rising-falling, fluctuating, and falling. In terms of spatial changes, the area of alpine lakes in the Himalayan Mountains, the Karakoram Mountains, and the Qaidam Basin tended to decrease; the area of lakes in the Naqu region and the Kunlun Mountains increased; and the area of lakes in the Hoh Xil region and Qilian Mountains fluctuated. Changes in lake water level and area were correlated with regional changes in climate. Reasons for changes in these lakes on the Tibetan Plateau were analyzed, including precipitation and evaporation from meteorological data, glacier meltwater from the Chinese glacier inventories. Several key problems, e.g. challenges of monitoring water balance, limitations to glacial area detection, uncertainties in detecting lake water-level variations and variable region boundaries of lake change types on the Tibetan Plateau were discussed. This research has most indicative significance to regional climate change.